Goodbye, rich Russia

The era of expensive raw materials, which began to rise in world oil prices in May 1999, ends before our eyes. Despite the unprecedented pumping of speculative (both financial and commodity) markets with cheap money, raw materials in general have ceased to become more expensive, and in many areas have begun to steadily fall in price.

The biggest impression was made by the “bell” in the coal market, the price of which decreased more than twice from the maximum level reached in the second quarter of 2011. The reasons are transparent: in addition to general overproduction, this sharp reduction in imports by India and the “shale revolution” to the United States (because of which American coal, which has fallen in price, “went through the world” and is now exported even to Europe).

Oil and gas are still being held, but in general they have only about three years left - until the gas carriers already built in South Korea for exporting American liquefied gas are completed. The fact that after this the “national wealth” of Russia will turn into a chicken (albeit a very large one) with a severed head is the concern of those to whom this “wealth” actually serves, however, a one-third reduction in the price of gas exports to Europe is inevitable.

With oil, the same is easier. It is clear that the cheapening of coal and gas will “pull” it after itself, and reducing its world price even to 60 dollars per barrel in its consequences for the current model of the Russian economy will be comparable to a shot from a grenade launcher at the temple.

But business is far not limited to energy carriers.

Since the spring of 2011, the world prices for steel semi-finished products and flat-rolled products have dropped by about a quarter, for long products - by one-sixth. Over the same period, nickel fell by more than twice, tin and aluminum - by about a third (the latter’s reserves in the world significantly exceed annual consumption, and there are no prospects for their reduction), copper - by about 30%, lead and zinc - by more than fourth.

Frighteningly - also by more than a quarter relative to the maximum level - even gold is getting cheaper, which, of course, is not primarily a “raw material for the electrical industry”, but a means of accumulating treasure and sacred metal of the entire market economy.

The scandal with the “quarrel between business entities” around Uralkali drew attention to a relatively small, but very significant, potash market. Only investment projects already being implemented in this area provide an increase in potassium production by about a third over the next three years - without any signs of increased demand. At the same time, a significant part of the projects being implemented has already passed the “point of no return”: it will be much more expensive to stop them halfway than to continue even at a loss. It is clear that this doomed the potash market to a collapse in prices, which was only brought closer by the arrest of Baumgertner and the very convincing Interpol support for the prosecution of the Uralkali leadership by Belarus.

All of the above does not seem to be an accident, not a one-time oscillation, but a new stage in the development of the world, at least a new business cycle of this development. The immediate cause of the cheapening of raw materials — the inhibition of China — lies on the surface, but even this is caused not so much by the internal difficulties of the Celestial Empire, as by limiting the growth in external demand due to the global economy slipping to a global depression.

It is clear that the inevitable (at least, as far as this can be judged today), the breakdown in the global depression will further increase the overproduction of the main types of raw materials and, accordingly, will increase the downward trend in its prices.

The cheapening of raw materials, which has been going on for two years now, gives both global and national business a clear signal that is subject to fast and unquestioning execution: they are no longer investing money in the relevant industries. (Bright examples are Qatar’s moratorium on the development of new gas fields on the shelf and the actual refusal of Russia to develop the Shtokman field.) Worldwide, the center of gravity of investments is confidently shifted from the development of raw materials and the acquisition of processing facilities to new technologies. Exceptions such as the US shale gas and oil market only confirm the rule - and the most advanced part of the world, despite the inertia of global monopolies, is probably waiting for a new technological breakthrough, a new stage of transformation by everyday life technologies.

The investments made in these technologies will have to be recouped, and, despite their growing productivity, high-tech products will begin to rise in price relative to raw materials. The tendency of its relative cheapening, which has manifested itself in recent decades, will reverse, and intellectual rent will take the part of humanity that does not possess it by the throat.

Yes, over time, the malicious and widespread abuse of the monopoly position under the guise of the realization of intellectual property rights will lead to the spread of cheap, widely available and, at the same time, superproductive technologies, blocked today by global monopolies and national bureaucracies.

Yes, after one or two decades, when the world will feel the consequences of the overflow of investments in technology to the detriment of the development of raw materials, the latter’s deficit will change the situation: prices will go up, investments will follow after them - and after the implementation of the relevant projects the cycle will repeat again.

But all this still needs to live.

And in the coming years, most likely, we are waiting for the era of cheaper raw materials, in which Russia will face a sharp decline in revenues from virtually all of its exports, including products of the first redistribution and rapidly aging weapon (with a clear loss of the ability to produce a significant part of it). But our country is bending today - “only” under the weight of its own problems in the form of total arbitrariness of corrupt officials and monopolists: economic growth is slowed down and will soon turn into a recession, a huge increase in investments last year was replaced by their growing reduction.

Domestic experts, who in these conditions continue to call for the development of a strategy for investing petrodollars in the development and implementation of modern technologies, are simply late: while this strategy is developed (and the experience of Medvedev's “modernization” shows that this may not happen at all), the petrodollars will run out .

And the new generation of Gaidar, Chubais and Kiriyenok, warmed up on export streams, will turn our pockets out without a shadow of hesitation and remorse and conscientiously declare: “The money has run out!”.

Strictly speaking, this process has already begun, and long before the reserves are exhausted. What are the heart-rending cries about the lack of money in the budget, the unused balances of which (over 7,2 trillion rubles) exceed semiannual expenses (that is, you can not collect taxes and customs fees for more than six months, and no one except the treasury will notice this). The cuts in social spending and development programs (but by no means giving the impression of openly thieving “image projects”!) Under these conditions are meant only to cover up the quite possible final operation to “withdraw” a significant part of its own reserves from the country.

The trouble is not that the impending cataclysm will almost inevitably lead to the end of the ruling and owning Russia party, robbing the Soviet legacy and processing the people of our country into personal wealth. These people have long been sorry for no one - even, judging by their behavior, by themselves.

The trouble is that the upcoming cataclysm will be quite long and may lead to the end of Russia itself, because our unpreparedness for such a development is obvious.

Our technologies, created at best in the 80s, will be just as hopeless and helpless in the near high-tech future, like the current Strategic Missile Forces - in a situation of large-scale use of precision weapons in combination with four-level American missile defense.

Comments

[Civil]

The author is naive, she and the elite live beautifully in Africa, and for the rest there are Internal Troops with criminal responsibility for not following the order :-) Well, Petrosyans on TV :-) and whoever knows and wants will not be lost

[SHILO]

Our technologies, created at best in the 80s, will be just as hopeless and helpless in the near high-tech future, like the current Strategic Missile Forces - in a situation of large-scale use of precision weapons in combination with four-level American missile defense.
Author Mikhail Delyagin

Michael! Not with ... those! Russia is not so worried! Survive and missile defense and shale gas!

[eplewke]

Crazy article! Shale gas is not a revolution in the gas industry. How will it be mined in densely populated Europe ??? Rave! Well, the Americans shake it in the desert. American missile defense? Yes, and what is this missile defense? Two regiments of Iskander in Kaliningrad with supersonic missiles - 3 minutes and there will be no piece of iron on this missile defense system. We will soon see how the American economy will also collapse and drag the whole world behind it, and the impoverished resource Europe will never rise without Russia's big hairy arm. The world is waiting for change. And the country that has a strong people and a strong nature will win ...

[slacker]

Rumors of Russia's economic death are greatly exaggerated. This is a burr-liberal propaganda in its purest form.

[Draz]

I agree with you!
Raw material prices will remain at an acceptable level, 10 for at least another year, with possible short-lived price drops, in this regard, everything is logical and predictable.
Further, Russia not only earns from oil, the sale of weapons, electricity, construction in foreign countries.
And there are no programs to reduce the share of resources in the budget: modernization of industry, investment in the countryside, manipulation of the Central Bank, the main problem - almost half of the population receives a black salary, these are trillions and trillions of rubles, this is comparable to the income from the sale of oil, and the damage is colossal! These people do not receive retirement payments, how many municipalities do not receive to upgrade infrastructure and build a new one, do these people have a social package, which is equal = doctors receive less.
In the future, the customs union.

A bad article is a little less than complete. The author is either incompetent or writes to order, and one does not exclude the other.

It is significant that they want to revive Soviet logic in relation to parasites, there was an article in the USSR, but now they think, I emphasize !!! THINK that unemployed will not be able to use honey. By services, relevant exceptions, the idea is at an early stage in the development of nuances. So they want to bring taxpayers out of the shadows

[Ulysses]

Uh-huh.
According to the author, irreplaceable mineral reserves began to replenish miraculously. And this does not happen.
And shale gas does not change the picture.
Expensive and terribly environmentally unfriendly.

[Theophanes]

You are engaged in hat-making, dear.

[starshina78]

I would not be so optimistic! Russia is kept on oil and gas money, prices will collapse and Russia will collapse, sadly for me, a resident of Russia. Investors' money goes mainly to the gas and oil sector of the industry (quick payback), and investors do not go to the real sector of industry - mechanical engineering because of the "long ruble" (the payback period of some projects in mechanical engineering is several decades), they do not want to transfer technologies, instead, they arrange assembly plants without the transfer of technology (screwdriver assembly), our science is destroyed (the fundamental science is still glowing, and the real contribution of science to production is minimal), and in addition, after the adoption of the law on reforming the Russian Academy of Sciences, closings will follow, as is considered unprofitable research institutes as a consequence of the loss of scientific developments in these research institutes. And the machine-building industry itself is going through hard times - the technologies are old, the equipment is Soviet, which has exhausted all the resources, the owner is not particularly interested in investing money in reconstruction - just to snatch money, and hence not the competitive equipment, which is not bought, is limited to spare parts for the old one. I speak with confidence because I work at a machine-building plant. Metallurgy is still twitching, but also on the verge. Enterprises are not being reconstructed. I was on a business trip in China, where our equipment was supplied, and so there are technologies, new equipment. Therefore, they are in the lead!

[AVV]

The naive author of the article, still thinks that shale gas will raise America, he’ll ditch it on the contrary! And Korea is building gas carriers for itself so that for example there will be no gas from the United States to transport liquefied gas from Russia and from Qatar, it is now for them it’s understandable! But our people are smart, they just won’t be able to hang noodles on their ears !!!

[Crocodile]

Naivety bordering on idiocy!
Production growth is impossible without an increase in energy consumption!
In any case, an increase in production will require at least the creation of jobs, that is, an increase in the standard of living of people who want to eat better, relax more, have better homes, and all this again requires energy!
Nowadays, only a decline in production can reduce the cost of energy or a global discovery, such as the production of energy from water with an efficiency of 100%!
This article discusses a utopian tale!
However, the basic idea is true - in order to become a great country, Russia does not need to depend on fluctuations in energy prices to get off oil and gas pipes, roll up its sleeves and develop its production!

[goldfinger]

Quote: Crocodile

Naivety bordering on idiocy! Impossible production growth without an increase in energy consumption!

From Belarus. I would not call an idiot a competent specialist. Often comes to Minsk. It is said that Lukashenko listens to his advice. Performs on BT. Literate guy. Instead of insults, just read the literature on this subject. Do not be lazy. The USSR collapsed, in part, due to a 5-fold decrease in oil prices in 1986. A decrease in energy consumption per unit of output is unknown, probably only in Papuan. Look around - from light bulbs to nuclear plants, saving, saving. And Belarus is building a nuclear power plant in order not to spend currency on Russian gas. For domestic use only. Unfortunately, innovative projects in Russia are rare. One Skolkovo - anti-advertising of the highest standard. But to do something really is necessary. And already, the day before yesterday. The train is rapidly leaving.

[leon-iv]

Asto arrives in Minsk. It is said that Lukashenko listens to his advice.

Duc as Lukashenko was a collective farm so he remained.

And Belarus is building a nuclear power plant in order not to spend currency on Russian gas.

Belorussia builds on Russian money. Tk Belarus has long been perceived as part of the Russian Federation.

One Skolkovo - anti-advertising of the highest standard.

In fact, there is more envy of those who did not get to the feeder. And there are enough normal projects there especially in IT.

[goldfinger]

Quote: leon-iv

Duc as Lukashenko was a collective farm so he remained.

And you are probably a representative of the military bohemia, judging by the pursuit. On a canopy - a hat.

Quote: leon-iv

Belorussia builds on Russian money. Tk Belarus has long been perceived as part of the Russian Federation.

Judging by the text, you have huge problems not only with elementary grammar, but also with geography. Or personally you, being in such a solid rank, and with such knowledge, have conquered us. Do not bring the Lord! It hurts a terrible banner, General! Already hiccups attacked.

Quote: leon-iv

And there are enough normal projects there especially in IT.

Judging by your comment, in your small homeland you need to open elementary schools. And do not introduce IT technology.
Good luck in your studies.

[leon-iv]

And you are probably a representative of the military bohemia, judging by the pursuit. On a canopy - a hat.

So what is it about Lukashenko? How's the budget? And with the sun? And with the production?
Ali to remind how dad Zhilin appointed to Belneftekhim for which Berezovsky’s ears stick out?

Or personally you, being in such a solid rank, and with such knowledge, have conquered us.

Why did you calmly join yourself.

[regsSSSR]

in vain you are so!
this collective farmer (lacking any strategic resources) has done more for the country than all the post-Soviet leaders together and the only one who sparkles is for rapprochement with Russia! he simply has nowhere to turn around and someone will not allow this to happen in our time! he would have a country with a good resource base, he would quickly lead to prosperity!

leon-iv
Duc as Lukashenko was a collective farm so he remained.

so as ALL Ukrainian presidents were corrupt fools and parodies remained! is that better chtol?
so as Putin was a cunning fox and remained!
BUT this still has nothing to talk about, just everyone takes their place and is very successful in their own way (I’m certainly not talking about the power of Ukraine))
and what do you want Lukashenko to do, who from the Soviet Union couldn’t get oil or gas, or just any feeding trough? so that his talent as a collective farmer came in handy for a rather poor Belarus and allowed him to at least not give a chance to the orange infection to let the country sink to the bottom of European integration

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: goldfinger

I would not call an idiot a competent specialist.

I agree, Delyagin very rarely made a mistake in his predictions. Moreover, he works in the same team with Glazyev, Kalashnikov, Starikov, and they cannot be called liberals. As far as I know, Rogozin is from the same basket.

[leon-iv]

And even more so, he works in the same team with Glazyev, Kalashnikov, Starikov, and by no means can they be called liberals.

It is not strange, but Glazyev in the Rogozin case, too.

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: leon-iv

It is not strange, but Glazyev in the Rogozin case, too.

If we do not know about the affairs of Delyagin, this does not mean that they are not.

[netMolotov]

Crocodile - Naivety bordering on idiocy!
Production growth is impossible without an increase in energy consumption!

Allow me to disagree with you. If some country with the efficiency of its economy as a steam engine can switch to the efficiency of internal combustion engines. That is, without increasing energy consumption, it can raise production many times over. Compare, for example, the fuel consumption of a car of the 80s and modern ones - the same with the economy. There is no alternative to the development of energy-saving technologies.

[Misantrop]

Quote: netMolotov

If some country with the efficiency of its economy as a steam engine can switch to the efficiency of internal combustion engines. That is, without increasing energy consumption, it can raise production many times over.

And how many PRODUCTS are left in the same USA? Except for the round-the-clock printing press

[goldfinger]

Are you living on the moon? Open any directory. US GDP - $ 15,7 trillion. Russia - $ 2,5 trillion. And the machine really prints around the clock. Because the whole world, including and Russia cannot do without them. And personally, you most likely have a couple of dollars in your pocket. [/ Quote]
And how many PRODUCTS are left in the same USA? Except for the round-the-clock printing press [/ Quote]

[Arabist]

Russia has a GDP of 3.380 trillion. dollars.

[goldfinger]

Quote: Arabist

Russia has a GDP of 3.380 trillion. dollars.

I agree. My mistake. Russia's GDP, taking into account PPP (purchasing power parity) - $ 3,38 trillion. Net Russian GDP - $ 2,014 trillion. USA - net GDP - $ 15,68 trillion.

[Setrac]

Quote: goldfinger

I agree. My mistake. Russia's GDP, taking into account PPP (purchasing power parity) - $ 3,38 trillion. Net Russian GDP - $ 2,014 trillion. USA - net GDP - $ 15,68 trillion.

This suggests that there are a lot of dollars in the United States and less dollars in Russia, but there is more natural gas in Russia.

[Misantrop]

Quote: goldfinger

Open any directory. US GDP - $ 15,7 trillion.

And if you also read this handbook, it turns out that this GDP includes income from the service sector, which gives a very high share of this GDP. And material production in the bulk has already been taken outside the United States. And, besides, the bulk high tech scientific developments are issued by first-generation emigrants collected all over the planet, and not by its permanent citizens trained within the United States. What remains is only the money machine and stock exchanges ... And what follows from this? Yes, only the fact that the United States is just the same "on the needle", only - not raw materials, but money. For the collapse of the USSR, the collapse of prices in the raw materials segment of the world market was enough, and for the collapse of the United States, the refusal of countries to use the dollar as an international currency was enough ...

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: Misantrop

And how many PRODUCTS are left in the same USA?

You yourself answered. Why do they need production with a printing press?

[Metlik]

Quote: netMolotov

There is no alternative to the development of energy-saving technologies.

Toyota Prius is the first production hybrid car. Looking at the success of Toyota, now almost every concern is developing electric cars. In 2-3 years, their mass production will begin, which means the mass production of auto batteries. This will make them even cheaper. Plus, there is progress in increasing their capacity. Ten years later, the world will forget the gas engine, as it forgot horse traction.

[leon-iv]

In 2-3 years, their mass production will begin, which means the mass production of auto batteries.

where does lithium drain take it? Ali what will the batteries be on?

[Icestar777]

Very optimistic of course))) but alas, while oil tanks rule the world, no one will let the world forget about the gasoline engine. Here is a backup option, in case oil and gas run out or green comes to power, electric cars will certainly be needed. But it will be oh oh how not soon, but a pity.

[Setrac]

Quote: Metlik

Ten years later, the world will forget the gas engine, as it forgot horse traction.

Dear, where does the electricity come from? The same thermal power plants where chemical fuel is burned - coal, oil, gas.

[Theophanes]

Add: new technologies, new design breakthroughs! Nanotechnology, Skolkovo - all advertising and nothing good.

[erg]

But there is still criminal liability for the execution of a deliberately criminal order.

[Orel]

Blah blah blah. Panic. We will all perish. If we survived the oil price of $ 19-20, then we will survive any other. No way in the West can not wait for our demise. And do not wait, not those attacked ...

[little man]

Already got this survival after perestroika, the collapse of the union, the current corruption ...
How long will this go on? And the article is excellent. Of course you can get into details. But another plop looms.

[smile]

little man
The current corruption is a couple of orders of magnitude less than in the nineties, when the whole country and ALL of its resources were stolen and now has completely dropped to the European and American levels. Of course, this does not mean that the situation with it is tolerable, but there is positive dynamics in this area (although not as fast as we would like) and you can’t notice it only intentionally.

[little man]

smile
The current corruption is a few orders of magnitude less than in the nineties. Yes, you sho? Who issued these statistics? Golikova?
If we are already on a military site, then let’s compare what weapons of the country were in the fucking 90s and what is now?

[smile]

little man
This is not Golikov’s statistics, I’m just not blind or deaf. and I repeat, ALL the national economy was broken up ... you think about it and compare ...
The armament has not changed much, unfortunately, it has only become more broken-down ... in the nineties, the integration of manufacturing enterprises was disrupted, the allocation of money for R&D was stopped, almost everything related to the rearmament and development of new types of weapons and military equipment was closed, the scientific base was destroyed, personnel were lost , continuity and the system of their training ... damn, even welders are not enough to carry out welding hull operations on ships under construction ... if we are on a military site, think about the development and deployment cycle of modern weapons and military equipment, and even the most difficult conditions that cannot be improved instantly ... and don’t pretend you don’t understand what I’m talking about.

[Garrin]

Quote: Orel

If we survived the oil price of $ 19-20, then we will survive any other.

But didn’t you try to think that you survived only thanks to the backlogs that were created in the USSR? Now, there’s nothing else.

[Gluxar_]

Quote: Civil

The author is naive, she and the elite live beautifully in Africa, and for the rest there are Internal Troops with criminal responsibility for not following the order :-) Well, Petrosyans on TV :-) and whoever knows and wants will not be lost

The author of the idle talk and alarmist. Honestly, I could not read it to the end, but vyser is understandable.
There is no reduction in commodity prices, there is a rebound from its maximum values. A rebound caused by the collapse of the economic model of the Western world. That is why Russia is reorienting from West to East, and not only China. Moreover, Russia is increasing industrial production and rearmament. The process began back in 2006 and the first results are visible today. Import substitution is everywhere, and with the creation of the Customs Union, a significant share of imports from non-CIS countries will be transferred to our neighbors.
The author is stupid in his estimates, if only because he does not take into account that Russia still has a significant surplus in foreign trade, which exceeds $ 212 billion. And this is with a total turnover of 830 billion, that is, more than 25%.

As for oil and gas, the author does not understand the structure of its consumption. Russia, unlike China, has huge domestic imports and the bulk of gas, over 70% is consumed domestically. But imports are mainly luxury goods. More than 52% of imports are cars and household appliances. When the structure of consumption changes in the face of a decrease in the purchasing power of the population, it is these sectors of the Russian economy that will get a chance for development and import substitution, as has already happened with the sectors of the agro-industrial complex and agriculture.

[Canep]

The author forgot to add at the end: "God bless America!"

[borisjdin1957]

from the Don.
Yes, the bells went! Well, the GDP would have shown itself in all its glory! And you see, the lump in the country is growing. Housing, shepherds are unpunished, there is no confiscation of property for theft, humiliation of Russians, etc. Damn, it will explode ... ..!

[a52333]

coal and gas will “pull” it along, and a decrease in its world price even to 60 dollars per barrel

1) the price of gas through the formula is recalculated from the price of oil. THOSE. the price of oil forms the price of gas.
2) Europe will not heat itself with coal. emissions from such heating can put an end to the Kyoto agreement.
3) Korea builds gas carriers to export LNG from the United States. And the Qatari gas carriers, which are now carrying gas to the United States, will stand idle?
Questions, questions. questions.
Maybe the author knows what tomorrow will be with the price of oil? THOSE. on whose head the next plop will fly? To Saudi or Iranian? Vanga and Nostrdamus smoke nervously.

[netMolotov]

a52333- And the Qatari gas carriers, which are now transporting gas to the USA, will stand without work?

They are not without work. They are now transporting gas to Europe. The United States stopped buying Qatari gas. The price of gas in the United States has now fallen from 560 dl. up to 180. So much for shale gas. And in Europe there are two countries with very large reserves of shale gas. One of them now wants to join the EU.

[Misantrop]

Quote: netMolotov

And in Europe there are two countries with very large reserves of shale gas. One of them now wants to join the EU.

It is not a matter of reserves of this gas itself, but of the consent of the country's leadership to risk its population. Which, most likely, as a result of these developments will have to look for new habitats ...

[netMolotov]

Misantrop - The point here is not in the reserves of this gas itself, but in the consent of the country's leadership to risk its population.

In the consent of the country's leadership to risk their population - oh don’t tell me my slippers. The same one whose leadership in this world was thinking about its population.

[Misantrop]

Quote: netMolotov

The same one whose leadership in this world was thinking about its population.

Yes, in almost any normal country, its leadership perceives the country's population, if not as an object of tireless concern, then at least as a resource. For the economy, defense, etc. Which is also worth something and requires at least some care to maintain this value. But these, which I wrote about, they absolutely FUCK. They don't make money from it. And the very concept of "tomorrow" is incomprehensible to them in principle, they need to snatch TODAY

[domokl]

The natural development of technology causes the author to fear something to lose. And this is something no more than Russia. To say the least, panic is like a soap bubble ...
Energy resources were and will be the basis of civilization. Not for three, not thirty and not three hundred years. Constantly. Technologies will change, consumption will change, but machines will work from energy.
Russia so far is not so dependent on the world to die from the absence of anything. We will survive even with the complete collapse of everyone around. How? This is another question, but we will survive for sure.
We are so accustomed to catching up that it has already become our national trait. Even if we suddenly rush forward somewhere, we are still catching up.

[dark_65]

Smart guy, no doubt, until we start shooting, as in China, we’ll sit in one small, uncomfortable, dark hole.
"This country will be destroyed by corruption" is a visionary phrase.
Our new mayor recently became concerned about the phrase that auctions with one participant badly affect the city’s economy, but before that, working as deputy governor, he simply didn’t think about it.
From a powerful center of industry, Voronezh has become a trade "innovative" component.
It remains to work 5-6 enterprises.
Now multiply by the number of subjects of Russia. The mathematics is simple.

[dark_65]

The number of officials, the number of benefits, and the composition of officials in the RSFSR are up to 92 years old.
Can’t you transport an official’s ass in a car worth up to the cartoon?

[igorra]

The author woke up, looked out the window: slush, spleen, well, and dashed off an article on the mood and not on the mind. Man wake up, stop whining, winter is on the nose, thanks to the crisis, that the coal will be cheap. You look, you’ll get some other benefits and the morning will not be so gloomy!

[Heccrbq.2]

Indeed, for us, what is out of our possession is let the botex freak and friends worry.

[My address]

I have, as usual, an indiscreet question. And if horror stories come true, but the country will surely stand and others will come to power? Others will water the Soviet Union according to the Soviet Union, or, like GDP about the EBN, say softly that it has failed everything, but did it more or less conduct foreign policy? And you, the citizens, voted for him themselves and are also to blame for the fact that he kept the money from the enemies, which the money hung. And what do you want for a lawyer by training and without experience as a leader, even though a brigade or a platoon.
And it is interesting to me, when will they begin to come to power that the country needs. Identify such yes easily! I assure you that the testing methods determine whether a person is lying or not. What kind of work he is capable of. I remember, in 90-x conducted a social investigation, so about one of the poor managers at the company was given that he was not in ....., not in the Red Army. We were surprised that everything is correct. But bureaucrats will not allow such testing.

[My address]

And read the article "The Sinking Government's Budget" in Svobodnaya Pressa.

[zevs379]

Yes, over time, the malicious and widespread abuse of the monopoly position under the guise of the realization of intellectual property rights will lead to the spread of cheap, widely available and, at the same time, superproductive technologies, blocked today by global monopolies and national bureaucracies.



The author has at least one positive thought - the rest is gloomy.
And in my opinion, the faster our government begins to help develop new technologies and not distribute the income from raw materials, the more effective Russia will develop.
After all, now, in fact, we are only eating away what belongs to our grandchildren.
At the beginning of the 20th century, Russia had no oil revenues, and in science, discoveries were and developed until the people revolted with expectations of revolution.

[kostik1301]

But they will sweep away the GDP and DAM, and there you look and we will return to socialism ....

[v.lyamkin]

Sadly, nowhere else to go. Maybe it's time to shop for soap and a rope? But in fact, Russia repeatedly stood on the edge, or it was predicted death, but they are alive however. It must still be somehow more optimistic.

[smile]

v.lyamkin
Moreover, the funny thing is that the further Russia crawls away from the edge, the more all sorts of cries that everything is lost, the country died ... :)))

[mirag2]

Yes. Obviously, the author did not fit into his topic. I will not say that this is a pure rush, but for example he says that they don’t invest money in the exploration of new deposits because the desired product is getting cheaper. No-no. Raw materials are a strategic thing. It will always be in demand. I didn’t think why Qatar was not looking, but Russia wasn’t looking for the fact that there wasn’t any money. Not enough for anything (neither for the army, nor for social programs)
. That's why I always said that the Olympics in Sochi is a huge mistake and cut. And we will lose a lot of money on it. Although everything has more than one side. Maybe this will give some kind of outwardly political preferences ...
And Qatar may not conduct field exploration, even with some secret agreement with the United States, in order to maintain the image of the inevitability of the era of shale gas.

[mirag2]

pson obviously political economy (political economy) at one time pushed.

[Silkway0026]

odious little guy, this Delyagin. the prognosis is more bile than the prognosis.

[v.lyamkin]

I apologize, accidentally got into kostik1301, but I just wanted to comment on the article.

[Asan Ata]

The article is purely negative. Yes, of course, being idiots is never going to be a winner. Who is against this statement? But there are other opinions and tendencies: energy is the head of everything, the "shale revolution" is another US bluff, the same as flights to the moon, "star wars" and September 11, and most importantly, Russia is waking up. Even in our thoroughly corrupt state, corruption began to mow down. That is, the process has begun. Thus, the author of the article simply expressed his fears. This is not a forecast, this is a bad dream.

[Icestar777]

the main thing is that Russia is waking up
She did not sleep, so lay down to rest))))

[Mihaylo Tishayshiy]

Quote: Asan Ata

Even in our thoroughly corrupt state, they began to mow down corruption. That is, the process has begun.

I do not know how in your state, but in ours (in Russia), corruption mows everyone and everything (read today's articles on the site). The Ministry of Defense or the Ministry of Agriculture is not an example for you? How many modern warships so necessary for us right now in the Mediterranean could be built with stolen money ?! And who is firsthand acquainted with the internal affairs of the housing and communal services? Let him refute the fact that everything stolen in the Moscow Region, Ministry of Agriculture, and other ministries is just babble, compared to what they steal in the housing and communal services!
And what about Putin? Everyone will think for himself.

Quote: Asan Ata

Thus, the author of the article simply expressed his fears. This is not a forecast, this is a bad dream.

I do not live in the oil and gas region. I live in Kuzbass (Prokopyevsk). And the author’s bad dream has become REAL for me and thousands of smoked people.
In August, they were waiting for Putin to arrive. What do you think he told us all?
Correctly! NOTHING! He did not come to us (although it was planned). He arrived in Kemerovo, held a meeting with Tuleyev and quickly disappeared. And we (miners, bulldozers, excavators, drivers, etc.) were left with our problems, without normal work and with a sense of pride in the booming economy, which the inadequate and mishandled authors are building up slander.
And what do you think - will we die ?! Do not wait !!! That's just a thought - and why the hell do we have such power and such an economy?!, Ripening in our heads!

[Igarr]

Surprised, Misha ..
"..for our unpreparedness for such a development of events is obvious ..."
Got it, finally. What the whole world has been living with for millennia.
But for Russia, it’s in general a normal state. Spirit, soul, economy. Government.
That is all nonsense. Horror stories.
And, the casket opens in the other direction -
".. Our technologies, created at best in the 80s, will be just as hopeless and helpless in the near high-tech future as the current Strategic Missile Forces are in a situation of large-scale use of high-precision weapons in combination with a four-tier American missile defense system ..."
One would like, playing with a file in his hands, to start asking questions - who were recruited? who are you going to contact? why are they abandoned? What is the composition of the group? appearances, passwords, addresses?
...
Equally frivolous - slip into pessimism ... and choke with delight.
Life is like that. Like a vest on a zebra.

[Cat]

Quote: Igarr

Life is like that. Like a vest on a zebra.

Yeah, a white stripe, a black stripe, again white ... But in the end, anyway ...
This is me about the mood of the article.

[Igarr]

Yes Sergey
at the end of a zebra - definitely, well ....
This is me about the zebra.
...
What scare us?
We are such that what the hell are you going to get through ... and then ... coal has fallen in price ... the shadow of horseradish.

[Cat]

Quote: Igarr

coal has fallen in price ...

Everything is getting cheaper, and life is getting shitty ...

horseradish shadow

Now I am beginning to understand the term "shadow economy"

[Icestar777]

Yes Sergey
at the end of a zebra - definitely, well ....
This is me about the zebra.

And if you count from the tail then what?))))))

[Cat]

Quote: Icestar777

And if you count from the tail then what?))))))

Well then, starting from the tail, we’ll go around the zebra in a circle and run into where we started. Here is such a predestination ...

[Lindon]

People are complacent and minus the author.
Everyone believes raw material prices will be high forever.
The author raises the question - maybe it's enough to sit on the "oil and gas needle"?
Maybe it's time to start raising production and processing?
Enough with a sinking heart to look at the freaks of "BRENT" on the London Stock Exchange?

[Know-nothing]

And so for years, trillions have been invested in:
- nanotechnology
- Skolkovo
- aircraft
- military equipment
- launch vehicles
- Sochi
- ...

Is not it so?

[T80UM1]

For the industrialization program to work, there must be socialism and not capitalism. Everyone is trying to talk about the high-tech leap, forgetting that this leap is not needed by potential "friends" from the West. And while the authorities are in close trouble with these "friends" we will never get off the role of raw materials.

[vvvvv]

I believe that a pessimistic look and reassurance is better than a sudden and shocking "moment of truth". After all, high-tech spheres and production must be developed! Therefore, I refrained from setting a minus to the material. Even if a negative outlook is better, it makes you mobilize and not be relaxed and stagnant. Personally, the material made just such an impression on me and made me think about finding, at least for myself, guidelines for a possible worsening of the economic situation in the country. Better a bitter truth, or even a half-truth, than a sweet lie.

[Selevc]

And in Russia, as in Ukraine, the high-tech sector of the economy has been dying like dinosaurs for some time already ... And none of the people influential in the 20 years after the collapse of the Union did not really move their fingers to create their high-tech products ... The same Although the USSR lagged behind the West in the production of certain goods - for example, automobiles and electronics somehow accustomed its citizens to use their own ... And now everyone got used to the latest brands of Laptops and Cars from world brands, and they lost their own for scrap ...
Today, as a fact, it must be admitted that in some industries - for example, electronics and in the automotive industry - the countries of the former USSR are hopelessly behind the West !!!

[Dante Alighieri]

I strongly doubt that the volume of shale gas production will be able to fully cover the needs of the market, another thing is that gas most likely expects a significant reduction in price, but this does not mean a complete rejection of Russian suppliers. And even in this case, gas will be worth much more than its cost, and this means one thing: gas monopolists will still profit, albeit in smaller quantities. Which, however, does not mean at all that the money will be in the budget, which is formed for a miserable 13% of the income of resource-extracting companies, and therefore we should expect a radical curtailment of all social programs and a sharp increase in energy prices in the domestic market (it would be easier to tear off people, not to offend your loved ones).

It is too late to invest the available funds in production, in this I completely agree with the author. They should have been invested in 2004, at least in 2008, when there was a real reason to use the funds of the stabilization fund. But we all remember that the state then decided to support banks, not enterprises. Later accession to the WTO finally put an end to Russia's ability to be not a raw material appendage, but an industrial country, with all that it implies. Moreover, the role of this "appendage" does not imply the presence of any political ambitions behind the country (primarily in the international arena), which we still have and which, in fact, were ensured by the high price of energy resources.

This raises the question of those in power and the reasons that prompted them to adopt unprofitable (when I say "unprofitable" I will proceed from the principle: what is good for Russia is good for me and vice versa) of economic decisions that directly undermine the sovereignty of the state and themselves as powerful actors (from Latin actor - to act, in this case, the one who acts, makes a decision) within a given state, not to mention social collapse.
But if the political elite proceeds from a different principle than I voiced, and their interests are not identical with the interests of the state and the population ..... then how to explain the principle of all the same political elite in foreign policy? Playing with the electorate? Of course, there is another option: scary, I would even say criminal negligence and incompetence of those who make decisions on which the life of the country depends. Which, against the background of the appointment of Golikova as head of the Accounts Chamber, agree that it does not look futuristic.

This is a situevina, in fact, we were indicated our place in the system of the emerging world order. We smile and wave, comrades!

[vvvvv]

I hope that ours will find something to muddle in this situation ... Anyway, the United States has already sucked out all the juices from its allies and now for them it’s ballast and territory under the base. And China - this can give many prospects for Russia. I do not think that there will be no solutions. The main thing is that today the government is trying to find them. And the problems are forced to mobilize these efforts.

[Sunjar]

Many people understand that sitting on an oil needle will not work, but those who make a huge fortune on this, under no circumstances will support the development of alternative energy resources, on the contrary, put out the rudiments of development in this direction. I agree with Asan Ata that energy is the head of everything, energy is needed for any kind of activity. If in the world they decide to collapse the prices of oil, gas, coal, then in the case of such a kipish, Russia will be reformatted to the domestic market and provide energy to itself, but in Europe then there will be a really difficult situation. The EU does not want this alignment and will by all means support a more or less high level of oil prices. There are some incomprehensible things with shale gases. In addition to the confusion with the real volume of this gas in the United States, shale gas production causes enormous environmental damage. There are already investigations into this matter. So when the Americans pound on this, gas production will cease, and Russian oil and gas will again be expensive.

[Hort]

The article, of course, catches up with horror, but the main message is true: you can not sit on the trade with only raw materials. It is necessary at an accelerated pace to invest loot from the income from the sale of resources in the development of the production of finished products. And highly desirable high technology. Moreover, it was necessary to do this a few years ago with the state. participation.

In the case of kipish, Russia will reorient to the domestic (including part of the CIS) market, but in the same civil aviation we will have a polar fox, as in many other industries that ALREADY depend on foreign supplies.
Energy is, of course, the head of everything, but you won't be able to sit forever on its "traditional" sources. And here we need a lot of political will to toughly oppose the same oil and gas lobby and develop alternative energy sources.
For example, what prevents you from concluding joint contracts with the same Icelanders and building geothermal power plants in Kamchatka (in Iceland there are such plants and are doing their job perfectly)? And about this the question was raised by smart people as if not in the 90s. Well, then it was unrealistic to implement such a project for obvious reasons, but from the middle of the zero such opportunities appeared.
Or, using the huge open spaces of the northern latitudes and the steppe zone, it is possible to build a whole whip of wind generators, which will solve the issue of power supply to the whole region?
it is clear that such things will require costs, possibly greater than, for example, the delivery of the same fuel oil to Kamchatka and northern thermal power plants. However, this is the development of technology and progress, which then will fully pay off.

Instead, we see what? That's right - Skolkovo and tagaz with a fret-viburnum forged in the flame of Orodruin

[dmb]

The article is missing a "small part". But what should be done to prevent the crash? Delyagin rightly criticizes the current system, but does not offer anything in return for one simple reason, it was this system that gave birth to a lot of people like him, and its collapse will simply leave him without work. After all, a logical continuation of the article would be a call to socialism. And socialism does not need talker-Delyagins, it needs people who will work with faith in tomorrow and who are capable, among other things, in the name of this faith, to go to hardships and hardships. No other society except the socialist one is capable of making a prosperous country out of a collapsed country. Capitalism simply does not know such examples, but Russian socialism does. We have pulled our homeland out of the abyss at least twice in one century.

[Hort]

this is not just a call for socialism should be. We need concrete clear proposals (or at least ideas for the preparation of programs) to transfer the economy to the production of finished products. Moreover, the person seems to be an economist)

[Icestar777]

Goodbye, rich Russia
Goodbye Mikhail Delyagin, we won’t miss you))))

[smile]

Icestar777

The shaggy sun falls on his head. My cat's hairy ass looms again on my desktop. A disk of land, having risen on its edge, rolls into the abyss, into Tartar, into tartarrrara, into the abyss of hungry eyes, The crimson twilight choking greedily swallows Russia ... Mikhail Delyagin prophesies ... how many such prophets did we survive? Nothing, we will survive this ... :)))

[Cat]

Quote: smile

... The shaggy sun falls on his head.
My cat's hairy ass
Again looming on my desktop.

Eh, you would write a hockey

[smile]

Cat
Thank! Alas, I’m not inclined to poetry or prose ... although I once made a sensation at a meeting of graduates of the law faculty ... I looked at what they had turned into, and when I stood on the high chair I recited:
I am walking along the slope ...
around lawyers ...
oh well them on x ... :)))
but even this "masterpiece" I stole ... :)))

[Muxauk]

in the near future everything will be fine, and then God will give, there will be water

[Icestar777]

Ooooh, how much Mother Russia is around and, what is especially regrettable, inside her lovers predict her inevitable collapse and fall. They, "amateurs" were before, but no, the Fatherland stands and will stand, the history of the Russian State is proof of this!

[stpv1]

You shouldn’t say so, you can say that when you have a large and young population, and when the sex of the country is people of pre-retirement age, most of them sick and poor, you should not say so. If something happens, just a little strength is not enough.

[Icestar777]

Study the results of the last census of the country's population and you will understand that there is enough strength. As for the sick, self-medication is not necessary and wait until the roasted rooster bites and it will be too late to be treated - this is our national problem called "maybe it will pass by itself", the poor are those who are not used to working. About the poor pensioners, my grandmother, God grant her health, the pension is almost 15000 rubles. the person just worked all his life.

[Garrin]

Quote: Icestar777

Fatherland will stand, proof of that is the history of the Russian State!

In the entire history of the Russian State, the Fatherland has never lost as many territories as in the past 30 years. Starting from tagged and Shevardnaz and further, EBN, Dam, GDP. Not suggestive?

[smile]

Garrin
The fact that the collapse of statehood was suppressed at the peak of the fall, with minimal resources, a budget and a rampant separatism, and a slow revival began, does not suggest? And then such Delyagins did not burst with apocalyptic forecasts ...

[Garrin]

Quote: smile

That the collapse of statehood was suppressed at the peak of the fall

Are you sure it is nipped? It seems to me that with the policies pursued by the current leadership, everything is only brewing.

[smile]

Garrin
Thanks to the policies of the current leadership, the collapse of the country was prevented — I'm not just sure, convinced of this. But the forces that brought the separatism virus to us will never calm down - and it’s not the leadership’s fault that this is so. It is clear that not all the actions of our authorities are effective, and they often act by poking, choosing the lesser evil ... but if in Soviet times you made mistakes in national politics ... what do you think you can do without mistakes? But talk about that. that it’s precisely the actions of the authorities that are pushing the country to disintegration-unreasonably.

[Icestar777]

You forgot Katka who gave Alaska to the Americans to this list, although she certainly does not fit into the 30-year framework)))). Can you give facts on GDP?

[creak]

Alaska was sold to the United States by Alexander II, not Catherine, Lyube is mistaken ... And in the post-war period, Port Arthur and Dalniy, Damansky Island were transferred only to China, and in 2004 Turubarov Island and half of Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island .. .

[Icestar777]

Oh, sorry! I forgot to put the quotes "Katka".
and in 2004, Turubarov Island and half of the Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island ...
Well, they gave it away, so it was necessary, however, as with Alaska.

[Icestar777]

As for the lost territories in the modern history of Russia, artificially joined has fallen off. The former republics decided to play independence and independence, a flag in their hands.

[Garrin]

Quote: Icestar777

Former republics decided to play independence and independence

No need about the former republics. And without them a lot of things left.

[Icestar777]

When the sculptor Venus sculpted, he also chipped off a lot of excess marble, for which they still admire the result.

[smile]

Icestar777
Eh. for the first time I have to disagree with you, for example, I like a woman with arms and legs more like something than a pretty sculpture with chopped limbs ... but for humor and resourcefulness + :)))

[Icestar777]

smile
Mercy))) Even with chopped limbs she, whatever one may say, remains a work of art and a standard of beauty)))))

[smile]

Icestar777
Well, here you can’t argue ... I won’t twist :)))

[Garrin]

Quote: Icestar777

When the sculptor Venus sculpted, he also chipped off a lot of excess marble, for which they still admire the result.

Following your logic, you need to "cut off" Kamchatka, Sakhalin, the Kuriles and Kaliningrad. And that, so smoother, which means prettier.

[Icestar777]

You are not the first to have problems with going to extremes and understanding analogies.

[Garrin]

Quote: Icestar777

You are not the first to have problems with going to extremes and understanding analogies.

But why? In your analogy, you directly cited that: "I split off a lot of excess marble." According to your logic, it follows that the more you split off, the better. Just your analogies, some strange, understandable to you alone.

[Icestar777]

I also know how to take pieces of phrases out of context, but for the sake of objectivity I never do this. Unlike you. And the meaning of the analogy is that in order to achieve a certain result, sometimes there is a need to sacrifice something, within reasonable limits. The way you turn my analogy leads not to a logical result in the form of a work of art, but to a pile of crumbled marble.

[Ingvar 72]

Quote: Icestar777

When the sculptor Venus sculpted, he also chipped off a lot of excess marble, for which they still admire the result.

You see live in Moscow? And you think that everything beyond the MKAD, extra marble? But in something you are right, housing prices and the truth the whole world admires.

[Icestar777]

I live not in Moscow and quite far from the Moscow Ring Road.

[chunga-changa]

I do not understand the main thing, will gasoline become cheaper?
The plus sign. When you think about the future, you need to consider the worst possible options. If, for example, in a prominent place in the Politburo there was a daddy "what and to whom to do if the traitor general secretary comes to power" much could have turned out differently.

[Crocodile]

Gasoline always rises in price in Russia
- with the growth of the dollar
- when the dollar falls
- with an increase in oil prices
- when oil prices fall
- at the beginning of the heating season
- at the beginning of the harvest
-... well, just like that, by decision of the oligarchs ...

[T80UM1]

Oligarchs on knives, expropriate the expropriators ... What is the problem then? Or is everything happy with us all?

[Icestar777]

Somewhere it was already ... aaaaa well, yes, we will take everything from the rich and distribute to the poor.

[Garrin]

Quote: Icestar777

Somewhere it was already ... aaaaa well, yes, we will take everything from the rich and distribute to the poor.

Not so now. Rather, we will take away from the thieves what they stole from us. It’s more suitable.

[Misantrop]

Quote: Garrin

we will take from the thieves what they stole from us. It’s more suitable.

It is there, Igor. Declaring some thieves unchallenged provokes their predecessors to repeat the successful experience.

And yet, I have NEVER ever been explained to anyone for what reason a private trader MAY hire a high-class specialist, and the state - NO. But it is precisely by that they explain to us the advantage of the private business system over the state

[Icestar777]

The main thing is that when they finish the selection, they will not forget the second part of the appeal.

[Karabin]

Quote: Crocodile

-... well, just like that, by decision of the oligarchs ...

and also because of increased excise taxes, when the government decides to adjust the budget

[Garrin]

Quote: chunga-changa

I do not understand the main thing, will gasoline become cheaper?

Our gas prices will rise in price for anyone. As is usually the case. The rise in price is explained either by a fall or an increase in world oil prices.

[Yarosvet]

Quote: chunga-changa

I do not understand the main thing, will gasoline become cheaper?

[787nkx]

Lower energy prices will entail a reduction in the cost of production of the product.
Reducing the cost of the product leads to an increase in demand, further along the chain - the expansion of production, an increase in the need for energy and an increase in prices. There will certainly be price fluctuations, but nothing will change radically.
In general, the current price of oil and gasoline is relatively low. It should not cost a liter of gasoline cheaper than a bottle of lemonade.

[Crocodile]

The real price of producing 1 liter of gasoline in Russia is not more than 8 rubles - the rest is taxes, excise taxes, kickbacks!
In Belarus, Russian gasoline is cheaper than in Russia by 10%.
We are just very rich!
Need to raise more!
Only servants of the people should drive cars!

[787nkx]

8 rubles is the cost of the gasoline production cycle.
And oil itself costs today 110 dollars per barrel (70 cents per liter).

[Belogor]

Delyagin, and even printed in MK - a notorious tramp. Without reading, you can predict all the conclusions of the author.

[Krsk]

What is the message of the article? after all, after 3 years, drink poison ... so what? how many times have we been buried ... toko where are they now (buryers)? and Russia was, is and will be !!!

[optimist]

In vain the forum users pounced on the author of the article. Even if he does not "exaggerate" a little, then it is better, as they say, to perebzd, than to be underboot ... Whatever the authorities do not push on the zombie box, I see one thing: in my 100-thousandth city there are about 3000 people who produce WHAT -To do it yourself (and then from time to time). The rest are selling (goods or bread), or it is generally not clear what they are doing. Roughly the same ratio in many regions. That was the deepest meaning of the capitalist coup in 91, to turn Russians into “Papuans” selling “bananas”. And when they got hooked on this business specifically and relaxed, then prices collapse.

[Dimy4]

He put a minus in the article, it’s a pity that he is not fat. The author refers to those who in our past were called an alarmist and did appropriate procedures with him.

[Garrin]

Quote: Dimy4

The author refers to those who in our past were called an alarmist and did appropriate procedures with him.

Doesn't it bother you that those who specifically prepared to repel Hitler's attack were called alarmists and "did the appropriate procedures" with them?

[Icestar777]

Do not compare the policies of that time and this.

[Garrin]

Quote: Icestar777

Do not compare the policies of that time and this.

Firstly. Why?
Secondly. I didn’t start.

[Icestar777]

Firstly. Because the differences are not obvious just not literate.

Secondly. Who?

[Garrin]

Quote: Icestar777

Secondly. Who?

He who can read, but read.

[smile]

Garrin
Yes, no-procedures were prescribed mainly by those. who in the years 41 -42 yelled that everything was gone. and about what might be good under a German, they are a cultural nation ... often the procedures were carried out without a prescription, right at the crime scene ... :)))

[Garrin]

Quote: smile

Yes, no-procedures were prescribed mainly by those. who yelled in 41 -42 years

In equal measure, as well as those who warned about the frequent provocations at the border, in the same 41m. And about those about whom you write, here I am only "For"!

[Setrac]

Quote: Garrin

In equal measure, as well as those who warned about the frequent provocations at the border, in the same 41m. And about those about whom you write, here I am only "For"!

And what had to be done? The army is on wheels, the troop transfer is on, tell me how to speed it up?

[Setrac]

Quote: Garrin

Doesn't it bother you that those who specifically prepared to repel Hitler's attack were called alarmists and "did the appropriate procedures" with them?

From here in more detail. Who were these people who allegedly prepared to repel Hitler's aggression, and what did they do for this? In the meantime, it doesn’t bother.

[smile]

Dimy4
Moreover, such alarmist screams merge into a friendly, clearly "orchestrated" chorus ... and the stronger the country's position, the more amicable the chorus ... these "appropriate procedures" were not in vain carried out with alarmists - the rumors spread by them were sometimes more dangerous than the strongest enemy, because they killed the people's faith in themselves.

[Grigorich 1962]

The pessimist Delyagin is not the kind of person whom you can listen carefully. There really are problems .... and when there were none ?? ... but the conclusions that He draws are clearly playing on the separatist moods of any scum. You cannot admit Delyagin to the horn. One harm from him

[stpv1]

I think the article should be taken seriously, the 1998 crisis, our government did not teach anything. Another crisis of the same kind, Russia simply can not stand. It is necessary to change the system, the market stupid economy of Russia is completely unsuitable. It is necessary to actively stimulate the development of the country, stimulate the birth rate by any means, increase the incomes of the population, and attract compatriots from abroad. Otherwise, the future in our deplorable country is huge, the population is very small. We do not need Putin, but Peter 1
Only such a person can restore order in the country and protect it from destruction.

[smile]

stpv1
Your quote:
"It is necessary to actively stimulate the development of the country, by any means to stimulate the birth rate, to increase the income of the population, to attract compatriots from abroad."

You have not noticed. what is all this being done? It may be clumsy, but it’s being done ... do you have very poor eyesight? :)))
And we don’t need Peter 1 — we don’t need a third reduction in the population and stupid copying of the bad things from the West — we had enough of that even in the nineties — the Stalin post-war policy is better (by the way, Stalin abolished the death penalty in May 47). The trouble is that moral values ​​were changed in the nineties ... to immoral ones, and now it is much harder to make a breakthrough - there is no enthusiasm - many people like to pour mud over their country and bad power and demand blood than do something before turning blue. ..and they don’t understand. that if the blood-khan is interrogated, we will be like a country ...

[Icestar777]

stpv1
the country is huge, the population is very small.
Do you want it to be the other way around, like the Chinese?

[Icestar777]

stpv1
And we do not need either Peter 1, nor Stalin, nor Grozny and other other things. Each time has its own board and government. Enough to look back at the past and look at it, you need to look into the future, create it. Do not be like the wife of Lot from the Old Testament, otherwise the same end awaits you.

[smile]

Icestar777
No, no, no, we are not going to be like anybody’s wives, chesslovo ... all the more, some obviously not good ... to whom the end has come .. we don’t need any ends ... :)))
When one of us says that it is desirable to have a politician like ... no one wants to repeat exactly. The fact is that problems similar to the current ones in the past have already arisen more than once, and have been solved by various methods. All that is possible has already been tried, we just have to choose the optimal model and apply it, of course, changing it in accordance with the realities ... it is like, for example, in fiction there are (if my memory serves me) only 17 main subjects — since the time of the ancient Greeks, mankind has not come up with anything new ... and with the solution of the problems of the state, everything was already there, so look back, planning for the future Still worth it.

[Icestar777]

smile
So you just decided that I literally accept calls to return the rulers of the past as such? Here from whom, and from you Smiley, I did not expect this in any way.

[smile]

Icestar777
Something like that, and this is not surprising, after all, many of the visitors to the site clearly want a complete analogy .... I thought you decided that we crave hard, on the verge of cruelty, control, accompanied by excessive consumption of the red ...: )) I am glad that I was mistaken ... but maybe, nevertheless, exclude me from the list of these ... slow-witted, who disappoint women ... otherwise I cry uncomfortably for me there, here :))

[Icestar777]

Everyone has the right to make a mistake))))) But seriously, lessons from history must be learned, of course, but also take into account the fact that "other times, other customs" are different methods. Many sin by dreaming of applying old methods in modern realities. I've heard so much of this.

[smile]

Icestar777
Well, here I agree to all 100, too, it jars ... I also heard a lot, or rather listened to it again ... you probably have developed an allergy to such views, and that's why you "settled" with us here, right? :))

[Icestar777]

smile
Partly

[Russ69]

Wherever you spit, only Nastradamus ...

[Krsk]

Quote: Russ69

Wherever you spit, only Nastradamus ...

I would even say hysterical Nostradamus ...

[Nick_1972]

I don’t understand that this way the majority of commentators attacked the author of the article. Like to cut off the head of the messenger who brought bad news? What is he wrong with? Aluminum fell in price - Deripaska threatens that if the state doesn’t help, he will close the Krasnoyarsk aluminum plant until better times. As a result, someone from the government suggests creating state reserves of aluminum. Why buy aluminum from the same Deripaska. The volumes of gas exported to Europe are declining. The list goes on. And in order to find out what the author offers, you can go to his website and read other materials.

[Rif]

Mikhail Gennadyevich Delyagin - Russian economist, this is a sentence, 1992 - graduated with honors from the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University
July 1990 — 1991 - expert, Expert Group of the Chairman of the Supreme Council of the RSFSR
1992 - November 1993 - Chief Specialist, Group of Experts of the President of the Russian Federation
1993 — 1994 - Vice President of Cominvest, Ltd.
May 1994 — 1996 - chief analyst, analytical center under the President of the Russian Federation (leaders - E. Yasin, M. Urnov, V. Pechenev)
October 1996 — 1997 - Assistant to the Presidential Assistant for Economic Affairs S. M. Ignatiev
March 1997 - Advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation - Minister of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation A.S. Kulikov
June 1997 - 14 August 1998 - Advisor to the First Deputy Prime Minister B. E. Nemtsov
October 1998 - May 1999 - Advisor to the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Yu. D. Maslyukov
May - July 1999 - Deputy Head of the Secretariat of the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation N.E. Aksyonenko - according to his advice, by the time of the 2000 years, the Russian economy has reached the level of the 1905 of the year.

[Powder donut]

And I liked the article, everything looks very logical, but I do not think that everything will go according to the most pessimistic scenario. And Mr. Delyagin, in my humble opinion, always looks at the current processes in Russia negatively. But the article was nothing, it was nice to read.
Any processes that violate the status quo in the energy market will benefit Russia.
And let's not forget about the unstable climate in recent years, this winter is promised to be very cold ...

[bistrov.]

Mr. Delyagin sow panic. What is cheap shale gas? Already, according to all estimates, it turns out to be more expensive than natural. In addition, it is worse in quality. So, I think, for many years to come, Russia will be a leading supplier of energy resources.

[Heinrich ruppert]

The article is really "all gone"
The author somehow looks at large proportions, what profit they bring. But the point is how many people are employed in the big "sharags". And how much in medium and small businesses. For ordinary people, work will always be, it always is. Just don't chase after 300% profit. And if you receive about 40-50% of the profitability of the enterprise, you will always live well. And also the people who work for you. And dofanar all crises and price surges are not on the stock exchange. Well, if you don't get 50% today, you get 20%. So tomorrow these grabbers will calm down and everything will level out, and you will again have 50% profit. GOOD PEOPLE AND SLEEPING IN PRODUCTION, THIS IS THE MAIN CAPITAL. Just like in the state.

[HollyGremlin]

In my opinion, now we have come up not to overproduction of resources, but rather to overproduction of high technologies. Civilization simply does not have time to process and master one stage, as the next one appears. Therefore, now, oddly enough, it can be more efficient to use old models, because they do not require time to master. For example: If a programmer (middle-aged) followed all the latest innovations and constantly changed software, hardware, introduced the latest standards, he simply wouldn’t have time for the main work. Or the same example with a 5th generation fighter: is it better than the fourth generation or the fifth fifth? And this situation creates a strong instability in the economy, because of this less developed countries show higher rates of development. Oddly enough, the way out of such a situation in history is the same as with the overproduction of resources - war.

[Ivanovich47]

I want to express the thoughts of an amateur economist. I always ask myself the question, why, having excess profits, not a single high-tech enterprise has been built in the country? The factories and the factory built in 30-80 - those of the last century are operated. The new owners of these enterprises pump money out of them, send them abroad without investing a dime in development. With such a development of events, the author’s assumptions are not so far from the truth. And most importantly: the need to develop technology is spoken at all levels, from the President to theoretical economists and practitioners. But nobody does anything. Sad gentlemen!

[SAG]

The whole problem is that the economist-amateurs in our country the vast majority! We are all patriots in words, but when it comes to our own money (I mean who has it naturally), no one is in a hurry to invest in high-risk high-tech projects ... it is much easier to invest in the oil industry or other raw materials sector, the profits from which guaranteed and verified! These are the pies

[JonnyT]

There is a true share in the article!
But I don’t understand one thing if energy resources are getting cheaper and cheaper, why are their derivatives more expensive? GASOLINE ALREADY 31 P! And he certainly will not become cheaper! And what will Europe switch to firewood?

[shurup]

Goodbye, washed Russia! We'll have to go launder money in more fishy places. A complete ban on the import of luxury goods into Russia will more than cover all export losses. Garden - instead of golf and polo!
And then we don’t plow, sow, do not build, but again we are proud of the social system.

[Djubal]

what `s next? Will Russia stop receiving green paper for its oil, but is there any certainty that the meaning of green paper will still remain? To survive, we need industry that covers at least domestic demand and raw materials for industry. We will not sell raw materials, we will remain. We need to develop industry, at least produce necessary things for life. And replace imports. Purchase of foreign goods for foreign loans or in exchange for resources at least stupidity because this is the best way to break up their own production capacities. And green paper, ideally, should be banned from circulation on the territory of the Russian Federation. Whenever we buy dollars or sell resources for dollars, we transfer part of American inflation to Russia

[albanech]

I will not repeat myself! All comments are correct - each one of a kind!

[nod739]

Chef, u have disappeared, the gas is turned off. the client will leave ....

not only shale gas, but it also needs to be delivered in liquefied form, and you naively think that it will be more competitive in price?
if such parallels are drawn. then Qatar, sooner or later, with or without Assad, will lead a pipe to Europe, and then the Yankees will find there a lack of democracy, well, a hundred pounds
and about the fall in energy prices, well, every 5-10-15 years, but in general, everything is growing, and gasoline at gas stations is not getting cheaper
that's when they find an alternative mass source of energy. which is much cheaper than any thermal power plant, not to mention the nuclear power plant and hydroelectric power station, or at least at the level. then the world of shock awaits reworking influence

[SAG]

The author, despite the thickening of colors, is largely right! Yesterday, on Channel One, Medvedev asked Sechin in all seriousness: "Is a sharp drop in energy prices possible in the near future," and even though the latter answered no, the signal for the people is clear, in my opinion!
We need to prepare to tighten our belts, I believe that this is the plan of America's "last battle", with which it wants to save its leading position and thereby not "fall into the abyss" and chaos.

[Avenger711]

What a horror, we all die!

[Icestar777]

The vulture said)))) (mmm "ICE AGE")

[leon-iv]

Want a production?
Do 2 things
Depreciate the ruble once in 2 - 3 times
Freeze prices on monopolies.
And in about 5 years we will get production already.

[smile]

leon-iv
Or maybe it’s his fig-default joys of Kindersurprise 98 years? Somehow I don’t really want to experience the total ruin of the people again ...

[leon-iv]

Or maybe it’s his fig-default joys of Kindersurprise 98 years?

so why immediately do it for 1-2 years. Tell me what it will be worse for the economy. So that instead of imports, much will be produced with us. Strangely enough, the 98th year gave a good impetus to the economy. Which prosral our economic block, led by Kudrin.

[smile]

leon-iv
The impetus gave big business, and when the banking system went down, they got out of the help of the state ... but small and medium-sized enterprises, especially those that were not in the shade, gave the oak ... yes, our authorities will simply be devoured, if she goes for it, if she’s been guzzled for the fact that life improves too slowly ... this is a dangerous business, and it must be carried out (if at all) for a decade, no less, stability is very important ..

[leon-iv]

The impulse gave big business the fact that when the banking system went down, they got out at the expense of state assistance ..

then the banks did not have money now.

..but small and medium enterprises, especially those that were not in the shade, gave oak ..

Buy / sell yes, but production is the opposite. Especially those who compete with Westerners. For example, with the same characteristics, have a price 30% lower. What's bad about it.

[smile]

leon-iv
There is nothing bad, but you are wrong about the fact that they died, buy and sell (they didn’t have money on banks, they had bucks on stash) - it was small manufacturing firms-builders that died, etc. ... from small firms . including agricultural, there is rarely money for equipment, etc. getting out through loans is a normal practice all over the world (only our interest is abnormal) and then bang-and-default ... all the money hung in the banks. and you need to give loans .. everything that was taken on bail is gone ... the farms didn’t have money for fuel and equipment, but the prices for products didn’t take off ... remember what happened to all agriculture, at least .. ...
Something I don’t know examples of that small business produced and exported to the West something on a large scale .. so that I categorically do not want default and related charms, here! :)))

[leon-iv]

Nothing bad, but you're wrong about the fact that they died buy-sell

Yes, here I operated more with the current time. For currency is now the privilege of big business.

including agricultural, there is rarely money for equipment, etc. getting out through loans is a normal practice all over the world (only our interest is abnormal) and then bang-and-default ... all the money hung in the banks.

This is the fate of farms around the world. What do you think agricultural holdings will not stand? I'm more than sure. Tk try such enterprises to pursue a policy from production to sale. In this case, the goods will always be in demand. For all payments in rubles. And it turns out, for example, that our apples will be 40 rubles and Polish shitty 80-100.

Something I don’t know examples of that small business produced and exported something to the West

So on that he and small business)))

that I categorically do not want default and related charms, here! :)))

so default will be and so the question is in what form. Our ECONOMY does not need a high ruble exchange rate. HE is harmful to her.
HERE look, there is a person (Economy) with a noose (high ruble exchange rate) and a gag (the price of monopolies). Removing the gag (freezing tariffs) forget to remove the noose.

[smile]

leon-iv
Undoubtedly, your words are quite reasonable ... and such actions would play into the hands of large holdings and oligarchs ... but I do not want drastic changes, the people will go berserk, look how many even now on the site there are those who do not want to see anything positive and only shouts - "down with" ... imagine what will happen if they arrange a rapid artificial devaluation ... imagine how much money will run away abroad again ... I do not see the slightest signs of default, rather the opposite, except for the broadcast of the author of the article, who considered that under Elbon the country was free and developed, and now totalitarianism and stagnation ...
Okay, let's see what happens ...

[honest jew]

Quote: eplewke

Two regiments of Iskander in Kaliningrad with supersonic missiles - 3 minutes and there will be no piece of iron on this missile defense system.

Modifications Iskander-K, Iskander-E
Main technical characteristics:
Range: 50-500

With such a range only missile defense and destroy. Dream a young patriot

Tomahawk (English BGM-109 Tomahawk, ['tɒmə‚hɔ: k] - Tomahawk) - American multi-purpose high-precision subsonic cruise missile (KR) long-range, strategic and tactical purpose. Range ----- 2500 km !!!

[smile]

honest jew
The missile defense positions in the territory of Poland were within the range of the Iskander, which we would definitely have placed if the missile defense were deployed there. In addition, it was possible that they would install special warheads. It was not for nothing that the Poles in the masses supported the deployment of missile defense.
And it’s incorrect to compare axes and Iskanders — these are different missiles.
So don’t dream, old ... unpatriotic ... :)))

[Setrac]

Quote: Honest Jew

Tomahawk (English BGM-109 Tomahawk, ['tɒmə‚hɔ: k] - Tomahawk) - American multi-purpose high-precision subsonic cruise missile

I draw your attention - subsonic, in short, complete sucks.

[Sergey_K]

Firstly, Russia is not rich. A huge part of the population is below the poverty line, although this very line requires correction. Yes, some successful thieves live well.
Secondly, God forbid we see a decrease in the price of raw materials - rivers of blood will be shed. Primarily because of separatism.
Thirdly, we all see that the world is on the verge of a grandiose ruse. The world system requires updating and it will happen. As always through the war. It was so 1000, 500 and 100 years ago - it will be so now. As a result of this process, who will end up on the horse? Those who cook their brains better.

The author is 100% correct. If the scale of corruption does not begin to decrease, we will fall apart from within. Corruption corrupts any undertaking, but most importantly, it corrupts the government itself, making it weak and unnecessary to the people. And then people change it, but there are too many variables in this process.

[Setrac]

Quote: Sergey_K

Firstly, Russia is not rich. A huge part of the population is below the poverty line, although this very line requires correction.

It depends on what is considered wealth. If it’s the number of dollars, then it should be said that the USA is the country with the most dollars. For example, in Russia there are fewer homeless people and fewer hungry people than in the United States.

[smile]

Sergey_K
We're already fed up with this corruption - when it was the Power that you hate that began to give it, when this very Power began to broadcast about it from the stands, when real positive changes appeared in the swamps and their ideological allies immediately began to talk about corruption... and before that they sat and snorted in two holes...so you support 100% a handsome man who believed that under Elbon we had freedom and Russia was developing...honestly, I’m tired of all the fuckers...forgive me...

[alone]

Quote: Sergey_K

Firstly, Russia is not rich. A huge part of the population is below the poverty line, although this very line requires correction.

I can't help but agree with you. So a reasonable question arises. Why then write off debts and give out huge loans to all sorts of parasites, knowing in advance that many of the creditors are unable to pay it all back? But wouldn’t it be logical to invest all these funds on production in regions where many people live below the poverty line? and what prevents the Russian leadership from doing this?

[Know-nothing]

Quote: lonely

invest in production in the regions

In what specific industries should the state invest money?

[787nkx]

In new, high-tech ones.

[Icestar777]

Sergey_K
Firstly, Russia is not rich. A huge part of the population is below the poverty line, although this very line requires correction. Yes, some successful thieves live well.

Do you mind a couple of questions about this quote?

[Free Island]

where did McCain come from on this site?:))) writes some stupid articles)) Mr. McCain, retire already)))

[Theophanes]

The whole problem with Russia is that liberals have seized power and are not allowing anyone not only to the helm, but also to the media. On the pages of newspapers there are only liberals or their assholes, and the same is true on all TV programs. The government is entirely liberals who do not want to listen to anyone except overseas advisers. Our Russian economists have no other views for them. Hence the cries about the crisis, shifting the burden onto the shoulders of the people, removing taxes from the oligarchs, suppressing small and medium-sized businesses with extortions, relying on migrants as cheap labor. And fear-mongering: I bought an expired product in a supermarket, not a medicine but a counterfeit in a pharmacy, or even in a hospital, they will increase the payment for electricity (they say they launched a new state district power plant or thermal power plant) or just like that, because our rivers flowed in the other direction. And Housing and communal services!!!! So you wake up with anxiety, what else have the liberal benefactors come up with? Putin calls for one thing, but the government does something completely different; it doesn’t give a damn about Putin’s instructions. There can be only one way out - the coordinated action of all economists with the support of the people! As Primakov did with a drunk, for which the liberals quickly dumped him. The government’s hands are itching to grab more money; they have no brains, never had one and never will have one!!!

[varov14]

Winter is coming, I’ve stocked up on potatoes, carrots and everything else, I’ll put the car in the garage as a last resort (like a patriot, for the sake of experiment), close the valves to Europe and let’s see how the families of our nouveau riche will survive there.

[Roman_999]

Exactly! It is no good to sell the treasures of the earth for colored pieces of paper, Russia will not end with us - children and grandchildren are here - to live and raise their own, they will also need resources.
Moreover, it is not right for those who have always come to war and grief to sell themselves! Let them live as they can.

[forever]

interesting article

[Gul]

It’s awkward to somehow declare that the forum is like a military one, and they would argue about the military... But oh well. So, why doesn’t Bulava fly? There is an opinion that the decision to unify the land and sea components of the strategic nuclear forces, made in the mid-to-late 90s, is wrong. But why do TRIDENTS and SINEVA fly? The answer, perhaps, looks like this = SINEVA and what replaces it there, were developed in the USSR, in conditions of shortage-free and priority military service, so they were loaded with a lot of funds for development and adoption. For Bulava, for obvious reasons, they did not give that kind of money, plus the developer - Solomonov with his Institute of Thermal Engineering, handed over a good POPOL to the army, it remains to adapt the developments for an underwater launch, but, apparently, not fate. The “Underwater High-Speed ​​Launch” complex, “terribly expensive and costly”, on which liquid-propelled sea-based intercontinental missiles were developed, was cut by effective managers, and like the damned Americans, calculating the probabilities at the “tip of the pixel”, without full-scale tests, was not enough, so say, ,,computing power,,. So this pandemonium continues like = what can we count, let’s jump, with full-scale tests and fine-tuning of missiles directly on submarine cruisers. And Shoigu became sad, and liquid engineers propose to adapt the old Sineva to the Bulava mines, but a new, really new rocket, without a ground-based test complex, cannot be created, tea, not NATO members, they are not trained to simulate processes on megaterraflop supercomputers, and they cannot buy software of this class , nor can it be stolen. Pichalka, however...

[alpenstock]

again .. backpack gas)) again delyagin))

[LLIpaM]

It was a shame that the article was downvoted - its main message is so true.

[Nitarius]

Author Mikhail Delyagin----------THE AUTHOR INCARCULATED FOR PROVOCATION! or give me the gun, I’ll shoot myself for this

[Horst78]

Rif September 25, 2013 10:37
Mikhail Gennadyevich Delyagin - Russian economist, this is a sentence, 1992 - graduated with honors from the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University
July 1990 — 1991 - expert, Expert Group of the Chairman of the Supreme Council of the RSFSR
1992 - November 1993 - Chief Specialist, Group of Experts of the President of the Russian Federation
1993 — 1994 - Vice President of Cominvest, Ltd.
May 1994 — 1996 - chief analyst, analytical center under the President of the Russian Federation (leaders - E. Yasin, M. Urnov, V. Pechenev)
October 1996 — 1997 - Assistant to the Presidential Assistant for Economic Affairs S. M. Ignatiev
March 1997 - Advisor to the Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation - Minister of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation A.S. Kulikov
June 1997 - 14 August 1998 - Advisor to the First Deputy Prime Minister B. E. Nemtsov
October 1998 - May 1999 - Advisor to the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Yu. D. Maslyukov
May - July 1999 - Deputy Head of the Secretariat of the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation N.E. Aksyonenko - according to his advice, by the time of the 2000 years, the Russian economy has reached the level of the 1905 of the year.

Then it’s clear why he writes

At the same time, a significant portion of ongoing projects have already passed the “point of no return”: stopping them halfway will be much more expensive than continuing even at a loss.

Does he even know that in the 90s, when oil cost $8 per barrel, oil workers stupidly mothballed thousands of wells? And I remember because from the oil city.
There will not be cheap resources due to the fact that the cost of production increases every year, even from the Arabian oil lens.
Article -