Military Review

The world after the USSR

12
Until December 1991, world politics was a heavy but steady global structure: the spheres of influence of superpowers, clear and predictable rules of the game ... But then this bipolar world collapsed - along with all the old world order. What emerged on its ruins cannot be called a construction.


The world after the USSR


The abolition of the Soviet Union was the final point of the Cold War - the ideological confrontation, which in the second half of the XX century spread to the whole world. Describing the world situation then, they spoke primarily about the horror of a global nuclear catastrophe. Now, however, they are increasingly recalling another characteristic of that period: they say that the threat of guaranteed mutual destruction disciplined their opponents and contributed to the development of the rules of relationships. Today, one can only dream of orderliness and stability during the Cold War. The new world order, proclaimed first by Mikhail Gorbachev, and then by George Bush Sr., did not come. Only the formal institutions remained from the old, and they have long been unable to cope with the regulatory function. Ideas are replaced by imitation (as in China) or religion (as in the Muslim community). Humanitarian ideals have become a crushing force, armed with the arsenals of NATO, the most powerful stories military-political alliance.

To the question of fate

One of the most striking examples of the erosion of international norms and rules is the Libyan operation. A spokesman and close adviser to the President of the USSR Andrei Grachev, speaking at a conference at the Gorbachev Foundation, drew a parallel that illustrates well the nature of the change: there is no Ceausescu blood on Mikhail Gorbachev, but Gaddafi’s blood on Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy. The thought is simple. Between the execution of two of the most odious dictators of Eastern Europe and North Africa - the distance is slightly more than 20 years. Both were confident that they were adored by their people, but they experienced a surge of unlimited hatred. The massacre of both had nothing to do with justice, but few doubted that the retribution was deserved. Both became victims of explosive social and political cataclysms that swept entire regions, and turned out to be completely unprepared for them.

The difference, however, is that the perestroika Soviet leadership, abandoning the class approach to world affairs and the Brezhnev doctrine of “limited sovereignty”, created the conditions for the people to decide their own destiny as they are able to do. And the modern Western countries, led by the United States, consider it legitimate and even necessary to intervene, even to the military force, in order to help the peoples choose the “right path”.

Basic Element



No state - large or small, democratic or authoritarian - is able to isolate itself today from the external environment, to ensure the impenetrability of borders and the inviolability of its sovereignty. And in this sense, sovereignty today is different from how it was understood in Soviet times. At the same time, the world system has not shifted to another quality, it has not appeared structural units that would replace the state as its basic element. Neither transnational corporations, nor global nongovernmental organizations, nor the frequently mentioned, but no less mysterious, network structures could not create anything that would replace the previous model - international relations, built on the interaction of sovereign states. But since these same states are weakened by the influence of numerous external factors, they are also unable to function as they did before. Hence the growing unpredictability of what is happening.

At the end of the twentieth century, the West assumed world responsibility - not only by right of a winner in the Cold War, but also as a carrier of a socio-political and economic model that proved its primacy. In the second decade of the twenty-first century, everyone reaps the fruits of this readiness. Several wars (Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya), the result of which, as a rule, is far from expected. The prospect of another armed intervention (Iran). Unresolved, but rather aggravated local crises (the Indian and Korean peninsulas). A bold experiment with a single European currency, which, without being consistently brought to the end, turned into a grave headache for the entire world economy. Finally, the emergence of a country that, not being the leading subject of change at the end of the 20th - beginning of the 21st century, managed to become their main beneficiary, and to such an extent that recent victors look at it all with great fear - China.

Chinese mirror

This power, devoid of ideology, but trying to replace its absence with a cocktail of traditional tenets - from the ancient world to the recent past - to the best degree embodies the spirit of the emerging world politics. China benefits greatly from globalization, but fiercely defends its sovereignty and free hand. He believes in the balance of power, and at the same time is doomed to resist attempts to build it - after all, if the current development trends continue, such a balance will be built precisely against China. Add to this a booming economy, aware of its enormous internal weaknesses, and therefore fearful of any instability. Of these and many other contradictions, the entire international environment is woven today.

As the West sinks under the weight of the burden of leadership, China is not only in no hurry to take responsibility, but also fundamentally avoids it. The main paradox: Beijing is really afraid of being pushed to the fore and be in the position of a hegemon against which everyone else will rally - something similar has already happened with America. And when Chinese strategists and politicians expose that they are not interested in world domination, they probably are not being cunning. In the Chinese consciousness, there is no universalistic ideological base, without which large-scale expansion is impossible. However, the very situation of a very fast-growing beneficiary of globalization, as well as an increase in the weight of the PRC in the world economy and politics, will inevitably provoke the attitude of others towards China as a candidate for world domination. With the ensuing consequences - deterrence by all means and on all fronts.

Crucial stage

The next decade will be a crucial time, during which the contours of the new alignment of forces in the world will begin to appear. The inertia given by the end of the cold war ends. Appealing to that victory (West) or defeat (which Russia makes with voluptuous masochism) makes no sense - the situation is radically different today. In conditions of aggravating unpredictability, long-term strategies are hardly possible: minimizing damage and creating more favorable starting conditions become a leitmotif in case the future begins to clear. In these 20 years that have passed since the collapse of the USSR, we observed the triumph of values ​​(liberal, relying on the strength of the United States and NATO) over principles (traditional approaches in international relations). From now on, one should expect the victory of egoism - everyone will be more and more concerned with strengthening their own positions and ensuring stability in the face of external challenges.

There have not yet been examples in history that the world order arose by itself, without major military conflicts establishing a new balance of power. It seemed that the era after the Cold War is an exception, but today it is clear: there was no order. At the beginning of the 21st century, there are two factors that can reduce the risk of a major collision: nuclear weapon, dramatically increasing the cost of war, and universal economic interdependence. This instills some optimism, although the same story teaches another - there is practically no limit to the stupidity and greed that a person is able to manifest, be it personal relationships or interstate.
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http://newtimes.ru/articles/detail/48319/
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  1. FC SKIF
    FC SKIF 23 September 2013 07: 21
    +9
    After the fall of the United States, a series of conflicts is inevitable for the whole world. I wrote about this somehow.
  2. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 23 September 2013 07: 21
    +7
    The collapse of the USSR is on the conscience of Mikhail Gorbachev, isn't that identical to the "rivers" of shed blood?
    "The next decade will be a decisive time during which the contours of a new alignment of forces in the world will begin to emerge ..."- and I’m sure that Russia will regain the former greatness of the USSR. The progress towards this is evident. hi
    1. JIaIIoTb
      JIaIIoTb 23 September 2013 07: 24
      +6
      We need to return to its former greatness. And not only for our own sake, we must stop the democrats who have entered the rage. Otherwise, the whole world will be washed with blood.
    2. Ruslandeth
      Ruslandeth 23 September 2013 08: 13
      +3
      I am convinced that the greatness of Russia, as a strong economically, politically and culturally powerful country that is able to stand up for its citizens and justice around the world, to ensure its citizens prosperity and security in its own country, and to be a guide for many peoples of the world, is the basis of Russia's national idea which can give us a push forward.

      The main thing is that it should be shared both among the people and at the top. SO WIN!

      Our dean, M.Yu., told me. Shinkovsky, the kingdom of heaven to him, when there was a storm in Czechoslovakia, and NATO mobilized its troops, military transport planes with soldiers, equipment and cargo on board landed every 10 minutes (!!!) there. It was a power that many did not like, but everyone reckoned with it.
      -------------

      almost finished speech for a flea market with an armored car)
  3. Vitaly Anisimov
    Vitaly Anisimov 23 September 2013 07: 23
    +4
    orderliness and stability during the cold war can only dream
    There was a time .. Now there is a terrible bloody mess in the world. I hope Russia will restore this balance of forces (I would like without war)
    1. Humen
      Humen 23 September 2013 07: 29
      +3
      Quote: MIKHAN
      I would like without war)

      It is unlikely to be given without war. Although that would be the best way.
  4. Pensioner
    Pensioner 23 September 2013 07: 38
    -2
    I am old, and the author is completely mossy by his understanding. Time is already different, different perception of the world, other "vibrations" of metaphysics are already working.
  5. zevs379
    zevs379 23 September 2013 07: 57
    +4
    Quote: Retired
    Time is already different, different perception of the world, other "vibrations" of metaphysics are already working.


    What is "different perception"? There is only truth and untruth. And what would whitewash all the abomination, you came up with this arc of your perception so as not to interfere with the big furry uncles to eat quietly.
  6. Standard Oil
    Standard Oil 23 September 2013 10: 00
    +4
    As history teaches: "Never say never", who, for example, could have known in 1945 that the country, having coped with the greatest evil that ever existed on earth, is just over 45 years old, and he will die not as a result of a military defeat, but in as a result of the vile betrayal of the upper classes and the indifference of the lower classes, who wanted to eat sausages, drink Pepsicolas and watch "scandals, intrigues and investigations." And no need to deny 90%, this is not the fault of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, Yeltsin is generally a consequence and not a cause, namely ordinary citizens of the USSR, who indifferently looked at how they had them and did nothing, then it was transferred to the 90s, and from there to the present when the authorities openly mock and mock people and nothing happens, and some citizens apparently find in this a special masochistic pleasure and begin to broadcast about the "revival of greatness and power" of Russia and do not notice the crowds of migrants flooded the streets, drug addiction, horrific corruption, complete powerlessness of the authorities, again the indifference of the population, about rampant alcoholism and dying out villages, where 2-3 old people are left sitting without electricity and living on 8 thousand a month, I said? So the world with the collapse of the USSR became the way you made it with your participation / non-participation, and when young people are trying to express their displeasure to the authorities, for some reason it is called a "pro-American orange rally" and on the first channel an announcer with a stupid expression on his face broadcasts about "curses x liberals bought by the CIA "and riot policemen twists and takes away some young girl who is sick of all this and who expresses her displeasure with legal methods, you are happy about this," what a fine fellow Putin, as he did right, dispersed another rally! " expressed the thought once said by the hanger Stolypin, they say "we need not great shocks, but great Russia," so he does not need "Great Russia", but obedient Russia, which will do as "the master says". We must look at the truth and understand that all the troubles of Russia are not to blame for the CIA, NSA, MI6, MOSSAD, STATE DEPARTMENT, the US Federal Reserve, the Global conspiracy, etc., etc. And we ourselves 99% do all the work for them, and they can only the remaining 1%. In the lobby of a well-known and "beloved" US agency in Russia there is an inscription with the following content: "Learn the truth and the truth will make you free", it is also in the Bible, if anything. I just think Russia has been leading for a long time. " shadow boxing "without noticing the true enemy standing behind.
  7. michajlo
    michajlo 23 September 2013 10: 55
    +2
    Quote: Retired Today, 07:38, _130923 / pon
    I am old, and the author is completely mossy by his understanding. Time is already different, different perception of the world, other "vibrations" of metaphysics are already working.


    Good morning dear Pensioner!
    I completely agree with you good Yes, the author is mossy and lies from five to ten, and I do not forget to leave my favorite turns in the article. As I can see, all the same, there is a visible difference in the views of older people, wise by life experience and others who have not yet experienced their fate in full force.

    Firstly, there was no "restructuring" but was focused, prepared well before 1985 and with the advent of the missing Judah (ICH) carried out "coup d'etat" covered by slogans
    - “disarmament” (this is the first thing that came to the performers from the West),
    - “publicity” (the beginning of the widespread falsification of state and party archives),
    - "perestroika" (the collapse of economic relations),
    - praise of the most progressive West,
    - and the shameful acceptance of various kinds of "humanitarian aid" to us "backward citizens" of the USSR and many other things, bad and vile.

    The very process of the coup d'etat conceived by the rotten top of the KGB and a pack of "Gorbi & Co." lasted for 6 years (1985-1991).

    The author of the article is Fedor Lukyanov, chapters. the editor of the magazine "Russia in global politics", in my humble opinion, is a clever political prostitute, and this article was written to order with the aim of further lying to citizens (already post-USSR) “About fate fate”, according to which the USSR, JUST HAS NO RIGHT TO EXIST ?!

    The second lie of the author, at the beginning of his first paragraph "The world collapsed in 1991 ...", since the world broke down in 1989 not collapsed in 1991.

    Then in 1989 for only 7 months. in all without exception the socialist countries (ATS) have occurred
    - “the uprising of the oppressed Catholics and trade unions / Solidarity” / Poland,
    - “Velvet Revolution / Charter-77” / Czechoslovakia,
    -fell social regimes in Hungary, Romania
    - AND WHY THAT East Germany fell at the end, i.e. "Movement of workers of the GDR" / with the destruction of the Berlin Wall and the reunification of Germany ?!

    And the situation with the complete collapse of the World Social System was completed by the collapse of the USSR, for some reason, the “troika of knights, Yeltsin, Kravchuk and Shushkevich” in the absence of the “main motor” of Gorbachev’s perestroika ?!
    >>> Continued
    1. michajlo
      michajlo 23 September 2013 10: 56
      +5
      Continuation No.1

      Yes, the author is right in the fact that the West has assumed responsibility for the whole world, which it is clearly not coping with and from which very soon such countries as China, Russia, Brazil, India, etc.

      As for China’s lack of ideology, I would be wary of such peremptoryness, because unlike the USSR, China modified the economy (planned + private initiative), retained the rigid structure of ideology, power, fought (and not broadcast as in the post-USSR / with the exception of RB) with corruption and crime !!!

      But I personally disagree with this statement by the author, this is the same dangerous path into the abyss as Gorbachev’s slogans (which were invented by Soviet and American specialists in psycho-manipulation warfare / KGB and the CIA):
      “From now on, one should expect the victory of egoism - everyone will be more and more concerned with strengthening their own positions and ensuring stability in the face of external challenges”

      In my opinion, the only way will be a turn from selfishness to collectivism, common efforts to restore order in a house, high-rise building, courtyard, street, microdistrict, village, city, etc., with the most active participation and influence of each of us.
      Those. elections with the RIGHT OF RECALL for any deputy and leader should be the primary concern of each of us, because "the good tsar and the evil boyars" is just a fairy tale. But this interconnection must be understood by the majority.

      Sit back and say, “why should I do something for others, let them ...” - in my opinion, we all went through the 80-90s and many remember how many people died in artificial conflicts (literally bare spot), rampant crime.
      Moreover, many of these processes were organized in my opinion, SIMPLY to force people to agree / "not to excite" when introducing and adopting MORE cruel laws / AGAINST their own ordinary citizens and patriots.
      Since the "new laws" were applied to the top 2% and the new political elite, which arose from the employees of the special services and the party apparatus, why were they NOT applied anywhere and NEVER ?!
      Guess two times why this is so?

      In particular, one can agree with the latest conclusion of the author (Comrade Lukyanov) that with a future sharp change in the world order (in my humble opinion 2015-2020), perhaps the participants will do without the use of nuclear weapons and other types of WMD, but this is not guaranteed so far.

      I personally urge all of you, dear forum users, when you read similar half-truths / half-lies,
      - first think about who benefits from such descriptions,
      - who or what “sings” or “wants to close” the author,
      - and the last thing that awaits us, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow,
      - if silently without hesitation agree with everyone or even more,
      we ourselves will again shout without doubt, “Glory to the Kremlin helmsman,” “Glory ... ... to that.”

      After all, if you recall how, until 1991, many of us "and I, including ALSO", without hesitation, shouted with enthusiasm "Words of the CPSU" and "Glory to the Central Committee and the General Secu",
      without FIRST to think, and what kind of beautiful words and sweet promises are told to us by "this mean bastard with a spot on the crown", thrust by traitors upstairs?!?

      I didn’t understand these lessons until the end when I was 20-30 years old, when these events were prepared and took place right after my 45-50 years.
      For my mistakes and stupid trust "steering" I am ashamed.

      But I WILL NOT LET ANYONE to fool anyone and use me as “cattle written off for slaughter”, “cannon fodder” or “front row in the demonstration / in Russia this is at Bolotnaya / 2013 ...” for THEIR Interests.

      I can and will explain to everyone and I WILL DEFEND the interests of ordinary people for the sake of ours [children and grandchildren, and not for ALL "fat cats" from the West, the post-USSR and post-ATS.

      Sincerely, Mikhailo.
  8. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 23 September 2013 11: 29
    +1
    During the confrontation of two political systems: socialist and capitalist, the logic of the actions of politicians was clearly outlined and subordinated to the struggle against the opposing side. This struggle covered all spheres of human life: politics, military component, culture, art, etc. After the self-destruction of the socialist system, the capitalist ideology, set up for the struggle, lost its orientation. The huge military colossus of NATO found itself in the same situation: where is the enemy? As a result of this, Western politicians have lost the logic in their actions, worked out by decades of the struggle against socialism. Yugoslavia became the first victim of such irrationality, then it went and went: Libya, Egypt, Syria. Who will be next? Who will be the victim of the next aggression?
  9. Horst78
    Horst78 23 September 2013 11: 35
    +1
    Speaking at a conference at the Gorbachev Foundation, a spokesman and close adviser to the President of the USSR, Andrei Grachev, drew a parallel that illustrates the nature of the changes: Mikhail Gorbachev has no blood for Ceausescu, but Garadafi’s blood is on Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy.
    Seriously on Gorbachev there is no blood Ceausescu? On it is the blood of millions am
  10. nod739
    nod739 23 September 2013 11: 49
    +1
    There have been no examples in history of the emergence of the world order without major military conflicts establishing a new balance of power. It seemed that the post-Cold War era was an exception, but today it’s clear that order has not appeared. At the beginning of the XNUMXst century, there are two factors that can reduce the risk of a major collision: nuclear weapons, which sharply increase the price of war, and universal economic interdependence.

    there is Ohm’s law in physics - the current is equal to the voltage divided by the resistance, or rather proportional to the voltage and inversely proportional to the resistance
    in other words, if the voltage is too high, or the resistance is too weak, then a short circuit occurs

    the law of physics, physics - a description of our world, Ohm noticed it under electricity
    and the essence - it acts everywhere, including and in society
    tension in society is growing - the potential difference, the lower classes can’t want the tops ....- bababh = revolution, war, rebellion, well, if the tension is not very uprising, but if everyone is happy, then there is no voltage gradient, there is no short circuit, .. and what is resistance? —economic ties- deterrence weapons, the police, promises of politicians, tales of domestic media — containment forces, so to speak, but the greater the tension ... at some point, breakdown and PPC .... war, revolution - short circuit in one word (both conductor and insulation are on)
    in general, looking at today's world, which is already sparkling -, the voltage gradient is high, the isolation hardly restrains it, oh yes, and it will soon fall apart ....
    the voltage itself drops badly, and it’s difficult to strengthen the insulation all the time

    (Ohm's law is the law of nature, and not just about electricity)
  11. slacker
    slacker 23 September 2013 16: 40
    +1
    I am sure that Russia is a country with a gigantic future. The Russians still bake potatoes in the conflagration of a burnt USA :)