Military Review

Grandmaster Emomali Rahmon, or Migrants, oil and weapons in exchange for the Russian base

48
At the end of last week, representatives of the Union of Tajik Youth Emomali Rakhmon was nominated as a presidential candidate. In early October, Rahmon marks the 61 year, of which he has been the Tajik president for almost 18 years. In addition, from 1992 to 1994, Rakhmon was Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Republic of Tajikistan. Election of the President in this Central Asian state will take place on November 6.


Grandmaster Emomali Rahmon, or Migrants, oil and weapons in exchange for the Russian base


According to the letter of the Tajik Constitution, the new term, if Rakhmon is elected a president (which, frankly, is unlikely), will be his last. But ... Lastly, according to the current Constitution, and this document in the Republic of Tajikistan, as many of our readers know, is very flexible, especially in that part concerning deadlines for the president to be in power. And if today the possible new term of Rakhmon is registered as the final, then nothing prevents the Majlisi Oliya (the Supreme Assembly of the Republic of Tajikistan (I mean the parliament) to make this term not the last).

With what indicators does Emomali Sharipovich approach the new presidential race (although the word “race”, as, by the way, in our Russian version, is hardly suitable for elections in the RT in recent years) ... Unemployment, corruption, low standard of living, almost complete absence developed industry. But all this Rakhmon today manages to skillfully overshadow. How skillful and how does he manage? Let's try to figure it out.

Let us begin with rather unexpected information, which is actively disseminated today by the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) under the Tajik president. Just a few days before Rakhmon’s nomination as a presidential candidate, a high-ranking representative of the SRC, Saifullo Safarov, said that external forces today can focus on trying to split the states existing in Central Asia and create new territorial entities. As one of the areas of preparation by the foreign forces of the hypothetical split, Safarov defines precisely Tajikistan. According to him, Islamist groups can be financed by the same external forces in order to split the two states at once, with the subsequent separation of the so-called “Great Badakhshan” from them. In addition, in the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, they believe that the conflict can be extended to the Fergana Valley, which means that Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will also be drawn into the conflict.

According to the geopolitical experts of the Republic of Tatarstan, the situation with the intensification of the situation of instability around several states in the region cannot be ruled out because the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan is scheduled for the next year, with certain regional players presenting NATO weapons. Uzbekistan is called as one of such states, and the Uzbek authorities themselves have repeatedly made it clear that they will not even be against receiving military equipment and weapons from the so-called International Security Assistance Force and specifically from the United States. However, it should be noted that today representatives of international human rights organizations (a word that has been giving something doubtful lately ...) to the Uzbek authorities have joined in the fights today. For example, representatives of Amnesty International decided to denounce Karimov that he, he says, is stifling freedom of speech. Human Rights Watch announces that Uzbek women, according to a certain top-secret program, are being sterilized by the government after the birth of their second child, and in Uzbekistan’s prisons literally do not get over political prisoners to whom the competent services do not allow employees of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent. In general, it’s kind of hinting that Islam Karimov doesn’t need to leave weapons and military equipment, but, you know, he will go on strengthening the regime ... Whether they will listen to the International Amnesty and HRW in the Pentagon and NATO is an interesting question ... After all, these organizations solve their own tasks and this means that a conflict of interests is quite possible, as well as a complete disregard for the “fears” of each other ...

But back to Rahmon and Tajikistan. Obviously, Saidullo Safarov announced a possible “mess” in Central Asia for a reason, and that this statement clearly fits with the imminent start of the presidential race. In the presidential race, as you know, any methods are good, and therefore statements about the split being prepared by external forces are a kind of message to the people of Tajikistan, aimed at removing this threat from RT to the choice of President Emomali Rakhmon.

This version is confirmed by the fact that recently the Tajik special services have begun to actively declare the detention in the territory of the republic of terrorist groups controlled by al-Qaeda. Last weekend, the security services of Tajikistan reported on the detention of terrorists who were going to carry out a series of terrorist attacks in Dushanbe. The group included 6 people led by a certain Allamurod Makhanov, who, according to Tajik intelligence services, was trained in one of the al Qaeda camps in the Pakistani province of Waziristan. It is noteworthy that all Tajik terrorists managed to take all six terrorists, as they say, alive and unharmed, and in addition, to withdraw their suicide belts, grenades, an arsenal of automatic weapons and detonation equipment. In general, either this Allamurod Makhanov was a bad student in the school for training al-Qaeda militants, or the Tajik special services are working exclusively on excellent military and political ... Meanwhile, the terrorists are already giving confessions ...

Against this background, another very interesting one has come from Tajikistan. news. Emomali Rakhmon, the same Rakhmon who, for an extremely long time (since last October), was drafted with the signing of an agreement on the extension of the Russian 201 base in the Republic of Tatarstan to 2042, was suddenly granted and sent the document for ratification to parliament. That is, Rakhmon managed to pull a whole year with the direction of the agreement to the High Assembly, realizing that it was better to wait for the pre-election times. Now, the parliament is obviously ratifying the document on the presence of Russian troops in Tajikistan (in Majlisi Olia at the Emomali Rahmon People’s Democratic Party 55 seats from 63), and Rahmon will be presented as a candidate who sees Russia as a strategic partner, which for the vast majority residents of the republic is of considerable importance.

Not only did Rakhmon reach for the ratification of the pre-election “race”, he also played an excellent chess game with Moscow in obtaining economic preferences for future ratification. The Russian authorities made unprecedented concessions: they announced duty-free deliveries of hydrocarbons to Tajikistan, modernizing the RT army at the expense of the Russian budget, and also prepared documents regulating the preferential location of Tajik citizens, who in the Russian Federation according to official census data around 250 thousand, and according to statistical research data various independent institutions - at least 2,5 millions.

In general, today Emomali Rahmon looks not just a president and a potential candidate for the presidency of Tajikistan, but a real grandmaster. He plays the game, which not only will once again lead him to the Tajik political Olympus, but also allow him to receive delicious economic cakes from Russia.

PS Learn, Viktor Yanukovych Viktor ...

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  1. Apollo
    Apollo 23 September 2013 08: 52
    35
    Not Grandmaster Emomali Rahmon, but skilled blackmailer!!! negative
    1. Civil
      Civil 23 September 2013 09: 37
      +8
      The standard Central Asian dictator, not bad not good ... others do not survive there for a long time in power
    2. Letterksi
      Letterksi 23 September 2013 10: 28
      -1
      it’s not he who is a skilled blackmailer, it’s the authorities who are skilled traitors. This blackmailer is sitting there thanks to Kvachkov, who is also sitting there, only not there, thanks again to the authorities
    3. experienced
      experienced 23 September 2013 11: 26
      +7
      PS Learn, Viktor Fedorovich Yanukovych ...

      Alexey (Volodin), and what has Yanukovych got to do with it? For ho ... shit? Russia is being led to maintain "good-neighborly" relations with the CIS countries, receiving in return only plots, unpaid loans and a bunch of dirty, lousy migrants ... Maybe it's time to act on the principle of "dead, so dead" and drive into dependence and push around?
      Apollo correctly noted that the "blackmailer", maybe it's time to give a return? We can puff out our cheeks on America, but some buy us (Russia) has it as he wants ... am
    4. bif
      bif 23 September 2013 11: 56
      10
      all preferences are very quickly leveled out by one "movement" ...
      About 50% of the GDP of the Central Asian republics is made up of remittances of labor emigrants to their homeland, the duty for such a transfer is now no more than 5% of the amount, so we raise it to 30% (well, or something close to this - a home task for economists) and "exit": emigrants no longer travel so zealously and illegally, they do not send so much, and if they do, then the budget of the Russian Federation is also satisfied.
    5. tank 34
      tank 34 23 September 2013 13: 37
      0
      you can’t say better!
      1. strannik595
        strannik595 23 September 2013 15: 27
        0
        The latter - according to the current Constitution, and this document in the Republic of Tatarstan, as many of our readers know, is very flexible, especially as it relates to the term of office of the president.
        ....... he has good, funny teachers on the interpretation of the Constitution from Russia (pictured)
    6. silver_roman
      silver_roman 23 September 2013 16: 23
      +1
      skilled blackmailer

      I think blackmail has nothing to do with it. after all, the grandfather normally "felt" the situation. By the way, all means are good when goals are achieved with maximum efficiency!
  2. Sibiryak
    Sibiryak 23 September 2013 08: 52
    +3
    That still no one argues a snake, but statements like - sound funny
    He is playing the party, which will not only once again lead him to the Tajik political Olympus, but also will allow him to receive delicious economic pies from Russia.

    In general, thanks to the author for the article.
  3. Denis
    Denis 23 September 2013 08: 53
    -3
    This Tajik "grandmaster" has simply not yet met such a GRANDMASTER as Putin.
    1. creak
      creak 23 September 2013 11: 13
      -2
      Judging by the photographs and not only, they met, so what?
      1. alone
        alone 23 September 2013 21: 41
        +2
        Well, we drank, had a snack, dances-shmantsy! so the money ran out! (quote from the movie "Mimino") laughing
    2. Gato
      Gato 23 September 2013 21: 50
      +1
      Quote: Denis
      the "grandmaster" has simply not yet met such a GRANDMASTER as Putin.

      GROSSMASTER is trying to play on many boards. Winning a pawn in Syria, he does not want to notice how the queen (well, rook) in Ukraine is being taken from under his nose. Apparently, he hopes that the New Vasyukov chess players will not catch up with him.
      1. alone
        alone 23 September 2013 22: 21
        +2
        laughing but in order not to be caught up, Kiss should be kept ready in advance with the boat on the pier) wassat
        1. Gato
          Gato 23 September 2013 23: 21
          0
          Quote: lonely
          on the pier to keep ready

          So walk like e2-e4 and puff out your cheeks - this is one thing, and naval battle - the game will be more difficult laughing
          What interesting allegories we have turned out lol
  4. Boot under the carpet
    Boot under the carpet 23 September 2013 09: 00
    -5
    This is what the leader of the state should look like! He, of course, though a serpent for us, but for his country he took such a step. I think this is a bold move on his part!
    1. Vrungel78
      Vrungel78 23 September 2013 09: 14
      19
      What is such a step FOR YOUR COUNTRY? This is a step for personal well-being. During the two decades of rule, he brought his country to the point where money was running to earn money in Russia. Yes, and they want to live here.
    2. IRON_MAN
      IRON_MAN 24 September 2013 18: 20
      0
      Exactly what you see on the streets of Russian cities is exactly the result of what this "leader" does for his people, like Kerimov. I am half Uzbek and I am terribly offended that Uzbeks and Tajiks associate Russians only with uneducated, powerless, hungry, dirty workers who work, if not without a fee, then for a penny. Of course, 2,5 million young and middle-aged people should not be allowed to fall under the wing of al-Qaeda, but continuing to subsidize these khans and supporting uncontrolled migration is a dangerous mistake! The growth of dissatisfaction among the population of Russia and the growing influence of terrorist groups in the future will lead to very sad consequences in these countries.
      I don’t understand why it’s impossible to put your own person according to American technology? These are our neighbors, Russia's influence is extremely high, and the whole operation will be much cheaper and there is no need to solicit a rental base, now they want to finance the development of training centers (they say if they go, then let skilled workers go). Firstly, it is the duty not of Russia, but of these bais to provide education for their people! Secondly, the USSR already had such an experience, where are these factories, factories, technical schools and universities? Now they will pour in money, and trained workers will gladly go to the Emirates, and to us all the same uneducated half-starved raggers.
  5. a52333
    a52333 23 September 2013 09: 01
    +5
    Emomali Rahmon does not look like just the president and potential candidate for the presidency of Tajikistan
    Lord, it was like that all the way. And in the framework of the USSR we were milked. Up there. no one really resisted. You have to pay something.
  6. Warrawar
    Warrawar 23 September 2013 09: 06
    11
    Lived. From a great power, some kind of leader of all guest workers, he is twisting the ropes ... but all the media trumpet about Putin's "great" geopolitical victories.
  7. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 23 September 2013 09: 07
    +6
    Apparently, Emomali Rahmon decided: Russia will feed and fill his pocket. And this is not at all funny ... angry The most annoying question is about migrants. recourse
  8. Vrungel78
    Vrungel78 23 September 2013 09: 11
    +5
    Asians have it in their blood: doing nothing, try to get everything. And the trickier you do it, the more respect you will get from your fellow tribesmen. I made such conclusions by reading a bunch of Asian tales. The tale, as you know, is a lie, but a hint in it ...
    1. Apollo
      Apollo 23 September 2013 09: 17
      +3
      Quote: Vrungel78
      Asians have it in their blood: doing nothing, try to get everything.


      What can commoners do when such a ghoul sits at the head of the mafia in power ?!
      1. Vrungel78
        Vrungel78 23 September 2013 09: 31
        +3
        I see your nationality, and in no case did I comb all Asians into one comb. I will correct my statement. This is your kind of scourge. If the Russian rulers had a similar mentality, we would probably be in the same position as the Uzbeks, Tajiks.
    2. Airman
      Airman 23 September 2013 10: 09
      15
      Quote: Vrungel78
      Asians have it in their blood: doing nothing, try to get everything. And the trickier you do it, the more respect you will get from your fellow tribesmen. I made such conclusions by reading a bunch of Asian tales. The tale, as you know, is a lie, but a hint in it ...

      2,5 million migrants - Tajiks (in my opinion this is still an underestimated figure of 25-30%) feed Russia, they feed the whole of Tajikistan with their transfers, we are arming their army at our expense, and not ours, which must be considered FIRST - Is the price for a base too high?
      1. Ali-gurg
        Ali-gurg 23 September 2013 15: 41
        0
        Quote: Povshnik
        2,5 million Tajik migrants (in my opinion this is still an underestimated figure of 25-30%)

        Ahaha .... well, there’s far more of them, only 8 mil. and so a third of the population they have staggered over the hill, whence such numbers wink
        1. Vrungel78
          Vrungel78 23 September 2013 22: 36
          0
          Dear Ali. Are you sure your number is correct? How the census is conducted, we know. I have never been counted in St. Petersburg. What to say about the periphery? It is the same with you and in Tajikistan. And to take into account the fact that a good half during the census was in Russia with all its documents? Or do they believe that there is such a person?
    3. Ali-gurg
      Ali-gurg 23 September 2013 15: 46
      0
      Quote: Vrungel78
      I made such conclusions after reading a bunch of Asian tales. The tale, as you know, is a lie, but a hint in it ...

      And what did you find there in fairy tales? wink Do you want me to give you a bunch of fairy tales as an example? At least, according to Pike’s decree, according to my desire, the Vedas are also industrious there, no one suffers ... wink
      1. Vrungel78
        Vrungel78 23 September 2013 22: 30
        +2
        So in our tales it is ridiculed! After all, it’s not without reason that Ivan is @ urak. There are few tales to read, they must be understood.
        1. IRON_MAN
          IRON_MAN 24 September 2013 19: 37
          0
          "By the pike's command" this is Emelya))
    4. Igor39
      Igor39 23 September 2013 18: 49
      +2
      I served in the nineties in Tajikistan, their peasants, dekhkans, plow in the morning, pilots go to the airfield at 5 am, warm up the boards, they are already waving mats, in general, the republic is poor, I talked with Uzbeks there, they told me that when the Russians lived here , it was Switzerland, and then the Tajiks were divided into "vovchiks" and "yurchiks", southern and northern, and how let's bother each other, there was a real civil war. 201st division took them away, and we caught heroin on the border, the lack of drugs was 40% , it was fun. Now it is unlikely that anything has changed economically, so they can be used anywhere to earn extra money.
  9. avt
    avt 23 September 2013 10: 08
    +4
    The grandmaster will play out.
  10. ed65b
    ed65b 23 September 2013 10: 17
    +3
    Inveterate wolf what to say. but it does exactly what its GDP allows.
  11. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 23 September 2013 10: 45
    +3
    This is what the Central Asian leaders cannot deny, it is the ability to derive benefit (often personal) in seemingly simple situations. Russian military bases in this region are the guarantors of the existence of the ruling regimes. But this is not enough for them. And Russia pays both for the "loyalty" of these regimes and for their safety. And all this is at the expense of the Russian taxpayer.
  12. Grigorich 1962
    Grigorich 1962 23 September 2013 11: 11
    +3
    such a fee for the Russian base. providing security and Tajikistan. it seems to me too chubby ......... politics of course is a delicate and dark matter ..... and here our Americans were killed .... and yet .... in the context of a full-fledged economic crisis in Russia, do such preferences ..... it's tough ..... you immediately understand that they are not friends with us .... they use us.
  13. eplewke
    eplewke 23 September 2013 12: 19
    -1
    It will be necessary to use Tajikistan as a rag, our authorities. In the meantime, we need a friend, comrade and food. We will lose Tajiks, and jihad anarchy is provided to you. And there, and the Caucasus is not far. How do you not understand? like offended boys for selected sweets. All this little cube of the big game. And it’s not for you to discuss the actions of politicians at such a level, because you have no idea about all the pitfalls ...
  14. ImPerts
    ImPerts 23 September 2013 12: 36
    +2
    Tajikistan, the base ... Maybe it's time to remember about Manuel Noriega and the charge of terrorism and drug trafficking ???
    Quote: avt
    The grandmaster will play out.

    Or you can remember about Pol Pot soldier and Khmer Rouge ???
  15. Daler
    Daler 23 September 2013 12: 51
    +5
    There is nothing to comment ... it is a pity that everything is so bad with us, and in addition, hatred of other nations. And all because of a couple of dozen people in power, it's a pity. Poverty is hard, but war is worse. Therefore, here in Tajikistan, not everyone is eager to go out, etc. And who knows, Afghanistan is not far, all evil will cross, it will be worse.
  16. Watson J.
    Watson J. 23 September 2013 13: 00
    10
    I live in Africa. One of the many conclusions that I made for myself is something like this: They are friends with those who give, and as long as they give. They are not "traitors", not "grandmasters", they are, I would say physiologically (if you do not go deeper). And there is no getting away from it. All colonies have always behaved this way and will always behave this way. Therefore, the issue of "friendship" is primarily an economic issue. I accept the concept of starting the defense of the borders at the maximum possible distance. It is enough to look at the map and imagine the US bases on the territory of Kazakhstan north of Chelyabinsk (see the distance), or imagine the heroin thugs across the Russian-Kazakh border. A base in the Republic of Tatarstan and the ability (albeit for a fee) to start control over drug traffic right on the border with Afghanistan. are expensive. Indeed, by and large, only "properly sharpened" bearded men with weapons and drugs are running to the north across the southern border of the Republic of Tatarstan. Those. Anyone can be extinguished without asking a surname, and the task of protection is greatly simplified. After passing the border, try to find a bearded man and his drugs. I would even help to close the border, but I would pay extra for the non-dissemination of information about the shooting at the border. The information about the fact that they do not detain them at the border, but bring them down, would very quickly spread on the other side, and those who wanted to cross would decrease by an order of magnitude. Imagine the situation. (This is from African reality, but quite applicable). A local corrupt border guard gives the drug dealer a corridor for the grandmother. The bearded man walks. He is spotted from the thermal imager by a helicopter of parallel forces guarding the border. And felled by definition. Corrupt border guard will go to complain or what? No, he has already cut the loot, he doesn't care. In case of too much resonance, you can give a jeep to the native leader. We need to control the borders as far from home as possible. And the tougher the better.
  17. RUSS
    RUSS 23 September 2013 13: 31
    -1
    I think after the ratification of the military base, ours will tighten the screws a little, although they did it very hard, because there are fears on the part of China, its economic expansion. Russia wants to remain the main partner and "donor" in all areas of Tajikistan. Rakhmon, using his territorial position with eastern cunning, will manipulate and maneuver until the "Russian bear" gets tired of it.
  18. Sergeant
    Sergeant 23 September 2013 14: 18
    +2
    Rakhmon, probably, doesn’t really care who they milk: Russia or the United States.
    Who gives - that and a friend!
    Amer too with tremendous force burst into Central Asia ..
    I think it’s not so bad that Tajikistan still has a "Russian interest".
    For Russia, it may be worse than problems ...
  19. T-73
    T-73 23 September 2013 14: 40
    0
    Quote: Watson J.
    Borders must be controlled as far from home as possible. And the tougher the better.

    well said, +
  20. slacker
    slacker 23 September 2013 15: 55
    +1
    To date, the supply of several hundred thousand tons of oil products at domestic prices, weapons of the 70-80s, as well as the legal presence of Tajik migrant workers in Russia are not so expensive and not so bad.
    By tying Rakhmonov to himself, Putin, if necessary, at any time will be able to use these levers to influence the Shrew.
    1. Volodin
      23 September 2013 18: 36
      +3
      Ruslan, rather 2,5-3 million (or more) "legal" Tajik guest workers in Russia are already being used as a lever, but only who presses on this lever, and who gets money from using such a lever? .. That is the question .. ...
  21. Nymp
    Nymp 23 September 2013 21: 07
    0
    I am for the reanimation of the Union! Whatever it is called: Soviet, Customs, EurAsEC, The main idea! But I am against the fact that in this Union there would be states - vampires who want to suck Russian blood under the guise of allies. Does the author of the article Yanukovych call for this? Then I am against!
    1. alone
      alone 23 September 2013 21: 48
      +2
      Union is possible only when the states created by the union are strong in everything. And in the current situation, such unions will not give anything good. Too many parasites
  22. 1goose3
    1goose3 23 September 2013 23: 04
    0
    Quote: Apollon
    Not Grandmaster Emomali Rahmon, but skilled blackmailer!!! negative

    All modern international diplomacy is based on blackmail. So a skilled blackmailer is a skilled diplomat. It is a fact, but whether it is good or bad is another matter. hi
  23. Wii
    Wii 24 September 2013 12: 14
    0
    If they don’t choose this ravshan ,,,,, that is, Rakhmon ~ let him go to Moscow for a construction site or work on a minibus, a friend will do the registration.
  24. knn54
    knn54 24 September 2013 14: 27
    +1
    -Migrants, oil and weapons in exchange for a Russian base.
    It is possible - but the base is “forward”.
    If there is no base, ALL CA countries fall under the "friendly" blow of the co-religionists of the south. If the border guards leave, the flow of drugs will turn into a sea.
    And with the Chinese or the Yankees in elevated tones, they will no longer be able to talk. And only Moscow is capable of building (for the needs of Tajikistan). And ALL of them will quickly find a replacement for Rakhmon. There is a living example of Shevardnadze (at best) and Najibullah ...
    According to World Bank estimates, in 2012 Tajik migrants transferred 46% of GDP to their homeland.
    Yes, you cannot lose the UNIQUE tracking system “Window”. But it’s time for Rakhmon to change his tone.
    -Apollon: Not Grandmaster Emomali Rahmon, but a skilled blackmailer!
    Let the “majors” of the Foreign Ministry learn (at least from him) how to defend their national interests.
  25. IRON_MAN
    IRON_MAN 24 September 2013 19: 47
    +1
    “In October 2004, an agreement was reached to transfer the Okno (Nurek) complex to Russian ownership. For this, Russia wrote off Tajikistan’s debt in the amount of $ 242 million. The territory where the hub is located was leased to Russia for 49 years.
    "In April 2005, an act was signed in Dushanbe on the transfer of the Nurek optoelectronic node into the ownership of Moscow. In exchange, Russia pledged to invest $ 2 billion in the Tajik economy over 5 years."
    Total: one "Window" cost Russia 2 billion. 242 million. dollars ... The "orange" revolution in Ukraine cost about 4 million dollars, there is something to think about, it is necessary to continue to indulge Kerimov and Rakhmon, or it is time to put your own people. Uzbeks and Tajiks will only say thank you.
  26. Druid
    Druid 24 September 2013 23: 15
    0
    One of the many freeloaders of Russia, a dictator begging for everything from the Russian Federation, plus enriching himself at the expense of the own resources of "poor" Tajikistan.
    With an intelligent leader, given that from Russia to the outskirts, all economies rely on the extraction and sale of raw materials, Tajikistan would be a self-sufficient country, only explored minerals are estimated in billions of tons.
    And Russia, as they say, for which they fought for it and ran into it - a beggar and migrants.
  27. samoletil18
    samoletil18 30 September 2013 10: 30
    +1
    The article is strange. like, just a description of the pre-election handouts in RT. And that’s it. But the thought of replacing a more loyal dictator, judging by the comments, is not with me alone.