Military Review

"It is better to dispose of on the spot." A military expert told why repeated gas attacks are possible in Syria

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"It is better to dispose of on the spot." A military expert told why repeated gas attacks are possible in Syria"Chemical weapon well guarded, and now, perhaps, it is under satellite surveillance, I also think that it is “taken care of” by the US and Israeli secret services, ”military expert Vadim Kozyulin told the newspaper VIEW. He recalled that no one has ever conducted chemical disarmament in a civil war.


“Environmental samples, chemical and medical samples that we collected provide clear convincing evidence that ground-to-surface missiles with a nerve agent sarin were used in the Guty area in Damascus,” the report’s first page says. on Monday, experts to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, reports RIA "News».

Earlier on Tuesday, it was announced that UN experts found conclusive evidence of the use of chemical weapons in Syria. But the mandate of the commission does not imply the identification of those responsible for himatak.

On Monday, it became known that the UN Commission to investigate possible human rights violations in Syria verifies data not only about Guta, but in general about 14 cases of use of chemical weapons in the country.

Vadim Kozyulin, Professor of the Academy of Military Sciences, Director of the Project on Conventional Armaments and the PIR Center ATT, explained in an interview to VIEW, what could be the course of events after the United States and Russia last Saturday concluded an agreement on the chemical disarmament of a third country - Syria .

VIEW: Vadim Borisovich, having signed the agreement in Geneva, Lavrov and Kerry launched a new public correspondence dispute - now about whether the UN Security Council resolution should contain the threat of a strike on Syria if Damascus violates the already new agreement. Are you not afraid that the United States and the allies will at the very last moment achieve concessions from Russia and make such a direct threat to the Security Council resolution?

Vadim Kozyulin: I think that Russia has defended its position even before that in a weaker situation. And today the situation is quite stable. I suppose the resolution will be the same as suggested by Russia.

LOOK: How can UN security be ensured near chemical weapons stores? After all, the warring parties can choose them as a target for the sake of a new provocation?

VC.: Specialists will work there, including Russian specialists. Provocations are quite possible. Moreover, they were expected earlier, half a year ago, before the use of chemical weapons in Guta and even earlier. There were many reports of possible "chemical" provocations, correspondence regarding this topic was posted on the Internet. Closed and allegedly intercepted. In short, the question hung in the air. It was expected and natural for someone to use this trump card.

Chemical weapons are well guarded, and now, perhaps, they are under satellite surveillance, and I also think that they are being “taken care of” by the special services of the United States and Israel. Everything connected with its movement is monitored and monitored, I am sure, it is quite possible for inspectors to create comfortable conditions.

LOOK: Let's say in six months there will be a new chemical attack. What is the probability that the United States will strike in defiance of Russia, bypassing the UN Security Council?

VC.: Renounce that there will be no events tomorrow that could give the United States a chance to deliver such a blow would be too rash. The disarmament process is long and complicated, each specialist emphasizes that it is very difficult to perform purely technical, история long, the plots in it are different. Today the main topic is chemical weapons. And the topic of the civil war has faded into shadow, but it has not disappeared, tomorrow Bashar Assad will be able to blame again, maybe even some "evidence of genocide" will be found, and so on.

LOOK: Kirovsky Governor Nikita Belykh has already predicted that Russia will not destroy Syria’s chemical weapons. Recall that it is in the Kirov region is the corresponding company. Does the governor's opinion coincide with the position of Moscow? Is it possible to neutralize these weapons in neighboring countries: in Turkey, Jordan? Or is it necessary to build plants for this from scratch? What is the current combat situation along the borders of Turkey and Jordan? Is it really there to carry shells with sarin now?

VC.: It is known who disposes of chemical weapons today: first of all, it is Russia. Technologies are used not only Russian, but also foreign. The experience is quite large, technology and specialists are available. This is a rather expensive operation. Now the question will arise who will be ready to pay for it and who will be engaged in it, since there is a war going on in the country, which increases the danger to personnel. Syria has accumulated quite a lot of chemical weapons, given the factor of civil war and the unpredictability of military fortune — anything is possible.

I think that it is very difficult to destroy these weapons on our territory. Chemical weapons are pretty old. It is best to dispose of it on the spot, because, given the factor of terror, you will need to ensure the protection of the entire railway. As for the neighboring states, I think they are not ready to take such a risk, or they will demand gigantic compensation for their help. But again, no one has ever done this in a civil war.

LOOK: According to the statutes of the OPCW, Damascus rely some kind of punishment? After all, he already many years ago signed the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, a week ago he refused to confirm officially his presence, and now he has suddenly changed his position by 180 degrees?

VC.: Formally, yes. But today the task is not to blame, but to solve the problem. Damascus has already filed a number of charges that outweigh the concealment of information - information that relates to issues of national security of the frontline state.

VIEW: Kerry said that not all of the 45 chemical weapons facilities in Syria are located in the territory controlled by Bashar Asad. Does this indirectly mean acknowledging the fact that ammunition with sarin can also be in the hands of insurgents?

VC.: Yes.

LOOK: On Tuesday, UN inspectors said that sarin, which was used in Guta, delivered a ground-to-ground missile. Does this prove the guilt of government troops?

VC.: Since there is war there, terrorists could use weapons. Most likely, we are talking about Scud missiles, chemical weapons were originally intended for Israel, and for this purpose a large number of Skadas of various models, from ancient to the most modern, were deployed.

It is possible that one of these installations was captured and used by the opposition. In principle, there are portable systems that use Qassam rockets, to the extent that the MLRS systems such as the Katyusha could be used. They do not require a serious launcher, some of them can be run literally from a sheet of slate. It is necessary to understand what they are talking about, according to the type of the fragments, specialists can precisely mount a weapon.
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  1. eplewke
    eplewke 18 September 2013 08: 44
    +5
    Chemical weapons - chemical weapons. But was it necessary to use Assad at all? The answer is of course not! Assad and without sarin successfully crushes terrorists. But this is all a prelude, in order to allow the Americans to bomb Syria faster. But bombing is not a panacea, it will not cure Syria. Syria is now cured only by the complete extermination of the bearded, tight control of all borders by the Assad government forces and the international politics of Russia, even better would be its peacekeepers ...
    1. 755962
      755962 18 September 2013 09: 22
      +5
      British experts do not see Assad's guilt in UN report
      LONDON, Sep 18 - RIA Novosti, Maria Tabak. British experts agree that the UN expert report does not contain strong evidence that chemical weapons in Syria used the Bashar al-Assad regime.

      РИА Новости http://ria.ru/arab_riot/20130918/963919318.html#ixzz2fDd6Cb4u
      1. Geisenberg
        Geisenberg 18 September 2013 21: 36
        +1
        Quote: 755962
        British experts do not see Assad's guilt in UN report
        LONDON, Sep 18 - RIA Novosti, Maria Tabak. British experts agree that the UN expert report does not contain strong evidence that chemical weapons in Syria used the Bashar al-Assad regime.

        РИА Новости http://ria.ru/arab_riot/20130918/963919318.html#ixzz2fDd6Cb4u


        Which will not stop them from accusing Assad of genocide and the use of the mentioned chemical weapons.
    2. Sandov
      Sandov 18 September 2013 09: 44
      +5
      Smelting.
      Already, the rollers were like rats fired on chemistry with settlements. Provocation of pure water. Special services work - lead the world to disaster.
      1. baltika-18
        baltika-18 18 September 2013 11: 37
        +3
        Quote: Sandov
        Provocation of pure water. Special services work - lead the world to disaster.

        Yes, this is understandable. Recently, I have a feeling that everyone has been famously destroyed and the goal of provocation has been achieved. After all, chemical weapons in Syria were created at one time with the aim of parity with the Israeli nuclear arsenal, now Syria has abandoned it. And the deadlines are tight, in the middle Syria should not have chemical weapons in 2014, that is, the country is losing one not a few important deterrent, and then various options are possible. The Saudis and Qatar, with their zeal in the Syrian issue, may simply simply not know everything and use them in the dark.
        1. eplewke
          eplewke 18 September 2013 13: 56
          +3
          Well, if Assad’s regime is sustained, then in the finals it will turn out to be a very good, experienced and strong army, behind which there will be two years of heavy urban battles ... So this will be a rather difficult goal ... In a ground operation, it’s definitely with heavy losses. .. Will such losses be justified by the IDF? I think they’ll think about it 15 times ...
          1. baltika-18
            baltika-18 18 September 2013 14: 59
            0
            Quote: eplewke
            if Assad’s regime is sustained, then in the finals you will get a very good, experienced and strong army, behind which there are two years of heavy urban battles

            I would have vouched for that part of Assad’s army, which consists of Alawites, Shiites, Christians. According to some reports, they are the ones who fight and are the most combat-ready. The Sunni part does not inspire confidence. And more than half of the country's population are Sunnis.
        2. Che
          Che 18 September 2013 17: 53
          +2
          For Syria, a good way out is to conclude an agreement with Russia on the creation of a naval base in Tartus and a Mutual Assistance Treaty. We’ll make it in half a year. Then the amers will definitely not turn up. And the Syrians themselves will bring out the rats.
          1. Arabist
            Arabist 18 September 2013 17: 54
            0
            The idea is certainly good, but I'm afraid it will not be implemented. Although, who knows.
        3. igor.borov775
          igor.borov775 19 September 2013 07: 23
          0
          Well, why in vain, Mosaic is slowly starting to take shape, Something like an economic union is being created, Unbeknownst to this union, it began to play a dominant role in many events that are happening in the Middle East, The intervention of this group of countries in northern Africa began to be very practical and very quickly, after of this, the interventions of this small group in all matters of the Middle East became noticeable, so that the Jews do not say they act in concert, Yes, they seem to be on the sidelines but this is not so, There are many contradictions and dangers that have accumulated there, the Persian Gulf is getting hot, Iran is tied tightly monitors the situation in the Persian Gulf, the Iranians themselves are well aware that they have no opportunities and forces to oppose this alliance despite high-profile statements, whose economic blockade will soon be 40 years old, It decided to strengthen its relations with close neighbors, In Pakistan stretches the gas pipeline do you think the neighbors across from the bay are glad of this of course uh, Despite the pressure on Pakistan, the economy turned out to be stronger than any embargoes. If this business goes well, another giant will appear who will also take part in such projects, Iran has pipelines that go to Turkey and he knows very well what his neighbor is. business relations, don’t take Americans to be fools, they perfectly see how Iran is slowly starting to slowly get out of the pit that they dug for it, And then these Emirates of Saudi Arabia with their problems transporting their products, This is what you need, A stone named Syria needs to be immediately bring into compliance those norms that These countries see, There is a dog buried there named gas pipelines and oil pipelines, No order needs to be fixed and started to be corrected, For information there were already used all the achievements that always ended in success for governments in exile, Everything that tried always worked but the problem of how soldiers could shoot children if they have not been in this area for more than 6 months, And here to the displeasure of Yuzh Turkey decided to take everything into their own hands and Syria in addition, It did not include the plans of those who started the revolution, Iraq and Iran reacted extremely negatively to this idea, it was their oil pipelines that go through Syria, the Chief Coordinator (this is in QATAR) was quickly displaced that happens, And the revolution in Syria turned out to be so costly that it was asked to ask the main democrat on earth to help, Now the so-called diplomatic pause here is everything, time decides who makes full use of it, There are different opinions about the Syrian army, What do you think if the majority of the population living in to this country they are sunk that there is no army, I doubt if the majority does not support the army, it has long since collapsed, Just the loss among the revolutionaries greatly cools the ardor of any rabble inside this very interesting and very ancient country
      2. eplewke
        eplewke 18 September 2013 13: 54
        +2
        yummy ... my nickname yummy ... laughing So my son sometimes mutters, I liked ... smile
    3. Ruslan_F38
      Ruslan_F38 18 September 2013 18: 32
      +1
      Quote: eplewke
      Chemical weapons - chemical weapons. But was it necessary to use Assad at all? The answer is of course not! Assad and without sarin successfully crushes terrorists. But this is all a prelude, in order to allow the Americans to bomb Syria faster.

      A report published by UN experts on the use of chemical weapons in the vicinity of Damascus does not directly indicate who used sarin.
      ... some details of the report clearly indicate that sarin was used by Assad's forces, namely the elite units commanded by his brother, Brigadier General Maher Assad. The report describes the exact direction of flight of two chemical warhead missiles. The missiles were fired from the positions of the 330th Republican Guard Division on Mount Qassoun, Damascus. Elias Hannah, a retired Lebanese general, comments: “This is the center of gravity of the regime. This is its core.” The report also says that the missile fragments received by the inspectors and warheads clearly indicate the presence of sarin. These are 104-mm missiles of a unique Syrian design, which are fired from Iranian-made launchers. Mount Kassoun is the main redoubt of Damascus. Emil Hokayem, an expert at the Institute for Strategic Studies, says: "The units stationed in this area are the closest and most loyal to Assad." Maps prepared by independent experts based on information from the UN report show that the missiles were fired from the base of the 104th Brigade Republican Guard on Mount Kassoon. The 4th Brigade is part of the 21th Division under the command of Maher Assad. A senior American intelligence officer who wished to remain anonymous reported that spy satellites detected missile launches from Mount Kassoon on the morning of the attack, August 3. "http://1mv.ru publ / doklad_oon_zarin_ispolzovan_ehlitnym_podrazdeleniem_asada / 1-0-19494-XNUMX
      - The United States has already found the culprit - Assad. And they won’t stop until they finish him and his country. Israel has recently revealed the same thing to its own position - al-Qaeda is better for them than Assad. Insanity grows stronger.
      1. igor.borov775
        igor.borov775 19 September 2013 07: 32
        0
        Yes, it’s not just that everything falls into place, I already wrote above that an interesting union is bearing fruit throughout the Middle East and North Africa, and the Jews are not in the last place there is very clear coordination,
  2. Stiletto
    Stiletto 18 September 2013 09: 01
    11
    The states do not care which test tube to shake. If there were no chemical weapons, they would have come up with something else. It's like in Krylov's fable: "You are to blame for the fact that I want to eat."
  3. optimist
    optimist 18 September 2013 09: 24
    +4
    The article raises the question of payment for this "pleasure". For some reason I am sure that, as always, the "generous" Russian people will pay for it ...
    1. Rus2012
      Rus2012 18 September 2013 09: 37
      +3
      Quote: optimist
      For some reason I am sure that, as always, the "generous" Russian people will pay for it ...

      The Germans are ready to participate in the payment.
      Israel is also imputed. Well, Turkey ...
      To reduce threats and dangers.
      1. baltika-18
        baltika-18 18 September 2013 14: 48
        0
        Quote: Rus2012
        Israel is also imputed. Well, Turkey.

        And that Israel and Turkey agreed to pay for the disposal of chemical weapons. Where did such data come from?
    2. alone
      alone 18 September 2013 19: 44
      +1
      Quote: optimist
      The article raises the question of payment for this "pleasure". For some reason I am sure that, as always, the "generous" Russian people will pay for it ...


      it is possible. Moreover, the initiative comes from Russia. They can entrust this business to Russia. (This is the whole version)
  4. svp67
    svp67 18 September 2013 09: 32
    +4
    All stocks of "chemical weapons" of the Syrian government must be URGENTLY taken under the control of international forces, preferably without our participation or, if with the involvement of our soldiers, then together with someone else, so as not to give rise to provocations. I do not exclude the option - betrayal, when a certain commander or chief of government forces, for money or other interests, ordered the limited use of weapons of mass destruction ... Do not forget that MOSAD is very active in that region, and bribery, one of his favorite methods, and American and especially British influence, is still very high, historically, among the ruling elites ... So the "porridge" there is very, very thickly brewed ...
  5. So_o_tozh
    So_o_tozh 18 September 2013 10: 41
    +3
    As I understand it, there is a game of cat and mouse, and whether the mouse survives will depend on the actions of Russia. But is it possible to immediately land a large landing in Tartus under the pretext of guarding the fleet base, to create a security zone and thus put everyone before the fact of the presence of the troops of the Republic of Ingushetia. Obviously, the Yankees and their geyropeyskie friends try to attack.
    1. svp67
      svp67 18 September 2013 10: 49
      +1
      Quote: So_o_tozh
      As I understand it, there is a game of cat and mouse, and whether the mouse survives depends on the actions of Russia
      Oh, I'm afraid that whoever there is still a big secret ... Perhaps this is a flock of mice trying to catch a cat ...
      Quote: So_o_tozh
      But is it possible to immediately land a large landing in Tartus under the pretext of guarding the fleet base, to create a security zone and thus put everyone before the fact of the presence of the troops of the Republic of Ingushetia.

      And where is the confidence that you have not taken the first step in this? Or why is there in the sea, in the composition of our squadrons "dangling" BDK ... They are loaded with something or someone ...
  6. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 18 September 2013 10: 42
    +2
    The presence of foreign specialists in Syria is a powerful deterrent for both the United States and terrorists. Assad will score points for himself, protecting them from the assassination attempts of the "opposition", and the world will once again be able to make sure who is xy in Syria. The main thing is not to forget about this shouting louder so that not only the United States can be heard.
  7. Sergeant
    Sergeant 18 September 2013 10: 47
    +4
    Probably, it could not do without a mosad ..
    Who is most concerned about the presence of chemical weapons in Syria?
    Why Israel and not "get involved" in its liquidation? The border is near ...
    However, no, this is not in Israel ... It is necessary that "by someone else's hands and at someone else's expense" ...
    1. engineer74
      engineer74 18 September 2013 11: 11
      0
      Lavrov, at a joint conference with Kerry, said that the Middle East should become a WMD-free zone, so questions to Israel, too, sooner or later, will arise ... smile
      1. baltika-18
        baltika-18 18 September 2013 14: 44
        +2
        Quote: engineer74
        Lavrov, at a joint conference with Kerry, said that the Middle East should become a WMD-free zone, so questions to Israel, too, sooner or later, will arise.

        Of course they will. But first of all they will arise towards Iran. Take at least the latest demands of Israel and the meeting between Netanyahu and Obama scheduled for September 30 on this issue. So, in my opinion, the process of eliminating Syrian chemical weapons was nevertheless planned in advance. And indeed "by strangers. hands "and" at someone else's expense.
      2. igor.borov775
        igor.borov775 19 September 2013 07: 56
        0
        Yes, an interesting detail: if Jews prove that they do not have WMDs, then Iran will be forced to show everything and what is not included to destroy it. I think Jews are already considering what to do and it seems to me that they have long known what to do, how to let it all go quietly under the talking room and turn the arrows and the Yankees seem to support them with their democratic weight,
  8. velikoros-xnumx
    velikoros-xnumx 18 September 2013 10: 53
    +1
    LOOK: Kirov Governor Nikita Belykh has already predicted that Russia will not destroy Syria’s chemical weapons. Recall that it is in the Kirov region that the corresponding enterprise is located

    Do not forget that such an object is also in the Penza region (not far from one of the largest chemical weapons storage facilities near the village of Leonidovka)
  9. washi
    washi 18 September 2013 13: 55
    0
    I am more interested in something else: whether those who are chemical will be punished. used a weapon? And those who provided it?
    1. igor.borov775
      igor.borov775 19 September 2013 07: 59
      0
      And here the problem needs to be clearly proved only after that to draw conclusions, Or you already forgot how democracy works on the experience of Serbia, And it seems that the Yankees are trying hard to use the experience of those actions, they don’t give a damn who applied for themselves, they found the main thing, but something does not grow together from here and maneuvers steps to the sides but the main route for themselves they indicated
  10. slvevg
    slvevg 18 September 2013 18: 53
    +2
    it would be better to use sarin in the Ukrainian Gut, the one where the former cottage Yushchenko and now Yanukovych.
    http://www.segodnya.ua/politics/power/janukovich-peredelyvaet-dachu-pocle-jushch
    enko.html
  11. avdkrd
    avdkrd 19 September 2013 02: 53
    0
    What SCAD missile is the expert talking about? I hope this inaccuracy of the author and editor, and not an expert. If SCADA were used in Guta, then without sarin the quarters would blow down. The speech is still apparently about CITIES, but such inaccuracies are annoying on behalf of the expert.