Military Review

New geopolitical reality

28
The G20 summit, held on September 5-6 in St. Petersburg, became the diplomatic peak of the confrontation not only in Syria itself, but also on the world stage between the US-EU-Saudi Arabia and Russia-China-Iran parties.


There were no outside observers left at the G20; directly or indirectly, each country supported one of the parties to the conflict. There are a lot of conflicting parties in multinational and religiously divided Syria: the Assad regime and the Alawites outside of it, the moderate opposition, Al-Qaeda, Islamic radical groups (like Hezbollah and Al-Qaeda), Kurds. Each side has its own patrons and sympathizers abroad. And in different periods, the balance of forces tilted in one direction, then in the other.

However, in recent years, the position of the government has strengthened due not only to internal consolidation around the personality of the president, but also to permanent support from outside. It is obvious that without diplomatic efforts and material assistance from Russia, China and Iran, Assad would have already been overthrown, if not by the militants themselves, then by the intervention of the West. And the G20 was the last chance to do it without serious image losses for the United States. Apparently, it was at the summit that Putin and Obama discussed Russia's initiative on international control of Syrian chemical weapons, and the next days were needed by the American president to overcome the resistance of the non-imperialist elite in the United States itself.

New geopolitical reality


After the US and Syria agree on international control, the question of the possibility of intervention remains open. But at the same time, the following conclusions can be drawn about the state of affairs in the Syrian issue:

 - There is no more moderate opposition in Syria, otherwise the EU would support the United States much more actively. This is quite natural, given the cruelty with which the confrontation has been going on for 2 years. Moderate opposition would be very useful now. The United States could put a condition on its involvement in the international control of Syrian chemical weapons, which Assad could not refuse. With this development of events, support from the EU would have increased after the elections in Germany.

 - The RF-PRC-Iran party won not only a diplomatic, but also an intermediate information victory.

 - The time for striking Syria, even in such a "harmless" form as air raids, has been lost. At the same time, it is important to understand that further postponement of the strike only increases the US image losses.

 - The prestige of the United States and President Obama is seriously tarnished. At the same time, even more domestically than in the international arena. Most likely, Obama will not be re-elected for a second term, and the next election will be won by the politician who shows less aggressive rhetoric on international issues and more attention to US internal problems.

 - The UN is a formality, a relic of a bygone era. The world needs a qualitatively different platform for discussing world problems. Otherwise, the UN Secretary General would not have gone to the G20 summit and would not have asked the participants of the formal economic summit to discuss political issues. After all, the point is not that the summit is an opportunity to discuss this problem. The fact is that the truly significant countries increasingly prefer to negotiate in a narrow circle (EU, NATO, SCO, BRICS) rather than vote in the UN. And this is already a geopolitical reality.

 - American-style globalization stalls at the political level. The future belongs to regional groupings and associations (EU, NATO, SCO, BRICS, Eurasian community). This also applies to the currency sphere, an example of this is the agreement of the BRICS countries to create an alternative to the IMF.

 - US citizens are less and less satisfied that their country's policy on the world stage reflects the interests of only the neoconservative elite, and not the American people. This largely depends on the electoral system of the United States. The existing political system does not allow American citizens to significantly influence the foreign policy of their country. It is hardly necessary to talk about the upcoming structural and institutional changes. However, the question of the transition to general elections and the expansion of the US party system may begin to mature in the foreseeable future.

 - Together with the United States, Turkey missed its chance to intervene. The policy of active participation in the Syrian conflict not only did not expand Turkey's zone of influence, but again revealed the line of social division between the supporters of the secular regime and the champions of political Islam, thereby increasing Turkey's disillusionment with the EU and NATO.

If the intervention does not take place, and the Assad regime wins, one can predict:

 - The US will reduce aggressive rhetoric and revise its concept of "scarlet" revolutions.

 - The main military partner of the USA in Europe will be France, which will replace Great Britain as the military leader of the EU. And the point is not only that the British society and elite are tired of useless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also in the upcoming referendum on the status of Scotland, the consequences of which are a separate topic.

 - Iran will become a full member of the SCO.

 - China, Iran, but first of all the Russian Federation, will use the acquired political capital to strengthen not only the prestige in the world, but also the positions in the near abroad (Central Asia, the Caucasus, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Moldova).

The future of Africa, the continent of failed states, where the interests of Europe and China collided, remains unclear. The question of whether some of the countries of re-colonization, like Mali, will fall apart following the example of Somalia and Libya, or will continue to undergo financial and economic expansion of the PRC is also being resolved today in Syria.
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  1. serge-68-68
    serge-68-68 17 September 2013 06: 28 New
    +9
    The article, of course, was a little late, which, in general, was not the author's fault - the situation is changing very quickly.
    In general, I agree, but:
    1. UN needlessness - if not for the presence of the UN, the Russian Federation could not have worked out the situation in Syria so effectively. Those. The UN is just a tool that just needs to be effectively used in appropriate conditions. Example: a knife as a weapon is old enough, but in a number of cases it is much more effective than any other weapon.
    2. US citizens do not care about any rhetoric of their government, if it does not concern them personally.
    3. Turkish intervention in Syria was only possible theoretically.
    But in general - the geopolitical reality has really changed a lot. But whether she will gain a foothold in that change - we'll see.
    1. tronin.maxim
      tronin.maxim 17 September 2013 06: 40 New
      +4
      We won a diplomatic battle but not a war. Now the main thing is to develop success and not slow down, otherwise everything will go to dust, the whole east.
      1. stalkerwalker
        stalkerwalker 17 September 2013 10: 31 New
        +4
        Quote: tronin.maxim
        We won a diplomatic battle but not a war. Now the main thing is to develop success and not slow down

        That's for sure ...
        In the light of the published report of UN experts on the use of chemical weapons, the second part of the Marmaisonan ballet begins. And with the same faces, with the same speeches and the same rhetoric.
        Output. "... seek and you will find ...", "He who seeks will always find." Here - everyone searched and found what they ordered ...
    2. bomg.77
      bomg.77 17 September 2013 06: 45 New
      0
      Quote: serge-68-68
      3. Turkish intervention in Syria was only possible theoretically.

      There they again had some kind of problem with a Syria helicopter shot down exactly before the next visit of the UN experts.
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 17 September 2013 07: 05 New
        +2
        Quote: bomg.77
        There they again have some kind of problem with Syria

        Erdogan has a problem with his head, and not with Syria. However, like many in the modern world.
        1. Orel
          Orel 17 September 2013 07: 18 New
          11
          Most likely, Obama will not be re-elected for a second term


          Clarification for the author of the article. Obama has already been elected for a second presidential term!
        2. Natalia
          Natalia 17 September 2013 09: 50 New
          -3
          Chemical weapons in Syria are just an excuse, we know the reason (Assad did not want to share with Uncle Sam), so ... I’m sure that even when all chemical weapons in Syria will be taken under international control, surely once (maybe even at night) , The United States will be sure ... that Assad, at his dacha, in the basement, is creating a killing gun that Washington and pa it is necessary to bomb Damascus and Assad’s cottage from the aircraft carrier Namitz.
          So we have time until this moment to get closer to Syria so much that an attack on it would be akin to an attack on Belarus ...
          Those. impossible without direct military participation of Russia ....
          1. washi
            washi 17 September 2013 12: 04 New
            0
            Quote: Natalia

            So we have time until this moment to get closer to Syria so much that an attack on it would be akin to an attack on Belarus ..

            Are you sure that Syria will want to enter a union state?
            1. Natalia
              Natalia 17 September 2013 12: 14 New
              0
              Quote: Vasya
              Are you sure that Syria will want to enter a union state?

              Ну what given that their Americans want to tear into British flags, bomb the bombers and bomb the terrorists ... you know ... yes, they want it!) And not just want it, it will run into this alliance.) Without looking back it will run ...
              1. Hort
                Hort 17 September 2013 14: 11 New
                +1
                how to know how to know. And do we need Syrians in a union state? I think not especially since this will entail putting some of the Syrian problems on our shoulders. Economic partners, some kind of joint work in various fields is one thing, but dragging Syria into allies is not in our interests now. Especially when you consider the intra-Syrian clashes between different groups of Muslims and the constant flow of mercenaries into the ranks of opposition groups.
    3. a52333
      a52333 17 September 2013 07: 17 New
      +1
      Most likely, Obama will not be re-elected to second term, and the next election will be won by the politician
      ?? belay lol !!!
  2. vadson
    vadson 17 September 2013 06: 40 New
    0
    yeah, if Assad wins in Syria, then the Yankees will lose a lot. This is a real chance for Russia to return the greatness of power and respect in the world.
  3. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 17 September 2013 07: 05 New
    +7
    Quote: vadson
    This is a real chance for Russia to return the greatness of power and respect in the world.

    Only a developed economy and science, supported by ideology, can give a real chance. As a result, the mighty Armed Forces. Unfortunately, in this direction, successes are much less obvious.
    1. eplewke
      eplewke 17 September 2013 14: 10 New
      +2
      Well, they both feared and fear our army. So, early on, you lose your ally. Yes, no doubt, this is not the red army of the 1980 model (from one word Europe and NATO were shaking in their pants), but also not the army of the banana republic. They may crash in such a way that it doesn’t seem enough, more precisely, nothing will already be shown. We can still walk around Europe (without America). And the modernization of the army that has begun only confirms this. If everything goes as planned (which of course we rarely have), then by 2020 we will get an excellent combat-ready army ... The main shtob diplomacy did not give up their positions ...
  4. Belogor
    Belogor 17 September 2013 07: 07 New
    +5
    "Most likely Obama will not be re-elected for a second term,"
    Of course it will not, since it is no longer possible under the US Constitution
  5. Shtv
    Shtv 17 September 2013 07: 32 New
    +3
    Besides the fact that the author needs to learn the grammar and use of the editor
    since he undertook to write articles. And write all nonsense, and read a little news, turn to the source for adequacy!

    Most likely, Obama will not be re-elected for a second term, and the next election will be won by the politician who will show less aggressive rhetoric on international issues and more attention to US internal problems.
    It doesn’t matter who wins the election !!! Obama is already in his second term!
  6. Shdo
    17 September 2013 07: 57 New
    +9
    The author apologizes for his political and grammatical illiteracy. And he asks from respected commentators for more criticism and other ideas, in addition to such a rude blunder about the presidency of Obamych.
    1. Orel
      Orel 17 September 2013 08: 00 New
      +2
      It's okay, otherwise there are quite interesting ratings ... Continue
  7. left-wing
    left-wing 17 September 2013 08: 46 New
    -6
    The author is behind the times; with such knowledge, it’s not worth writing articles
    1. a52333
      a52333 17 September 2013 09: 16 New
      +1
      We drove through. Already apologized and will be more attentive.
  8. not good
    not good 17 September 2013 09: 45 New
    +1
    In general, an optimistic article, but to the great regret, Assad’s victory is not beneficial to the states and Israel, and they will come up with new nasty things just to ruin Syria.
  9. ed65b
    ed65b 17 September 2013 09: 55 New
    +3
    more than me personally is annoyed by mockery in the world media over Obamych. why this howl about his humiliation? Obamych beautifully left the game, I believe that he did the only thing right and this did not humiliate him in any way, and insults him, at least, his disappointment about the failed war. Well done Obamych, found mutual understanding with the GDP and solved the issue together. And if he walked along the rink in Syria, it would be a humiliation of Russia and specifically GDP. would all of us be so happy? it is necessary on the contrary to support the peasant when invigorating, and not screaming as we ate him. Do not forget that Obamych is the real president, a powerful military power. It's my opinion. hi
    1. sergius60
      sergius60 17 September 2013 11: 40 New
      0
      I completely agree with you. Not everyone in Pindo Stan has a headache like McCain. According to the balance of votes in Congress, it is clear that those who like to look for adventures on the "opu" are far from the majority. Need support "tovarischa", not dipping in manure.
  10. Ddhal
    Ddhal 17 September 2013 10: 36 New
    0
    Any article on this subject will be curious by default.
    But I want something deeper with historical retrospective.
    This is necessary for understanding future events, for we are now at one of the key points in world history.
  11. Gur
    Gur 17 September 2013 10: 55 New
    0
    Obama was lowered very much, but he is still the president of the United States and not a sucker. You can wait for something dangerous and unexpected. Now you have to be on your guard in a twofold wounded beast more dangerous ...
  12. Tartary
    Tartary 17 September 2013 11: 15 New
    +5
    I read on a nearby branch, citing a source from the Russian Ministry of Defense, that those two missiles were fired from a US base in Spain and were detected and shot down by air defense of Russian ships ...
    After that, it was reported from Russia to the USA that a strike on Syria is a strike on Moscow ...
    After which England and Germany went into denial ...
    After that, the Americans (literally - in the US administration were embarrassed) got offended and cut the reverse ...
    As a result, Israel allegedly assumed the launch of these missiles.
    http://warfiles.ru/show-38803-vsya-pravda-o-voennoy-konfrontacii-ssha-i-rossii.h

    tml

    Kakavo? Kakawa!
    If everything is so, then the events look quite straightforward differently than the whole WORLD discusses ...

    It is obvious that the world does not know much and probably will not know how and what really happened.
    1. stalkerwalker
      stalkerwalker 17 September 2013 11: 29 New
      +5
      Quote: Tartary
      It is obvious that the world does not know much and probably will not know how and what really happened.


      ".. And the city thought - teachings are coming ..."
    2. sergius60
      sergius60 17 September 2013 12: 05 New
      +1
      Appointing an Israeli submarine capable of firing WINGED missiles as a "launcher" of BALLISTIC missiles was touched from the start. But the fact that the ANTI-MISSION system was tested on Russian ships in real life was a pleasure. Something has not been heard from the "amers" about successful interceptions. Blah blah blah, as usual.
    3. eplewke
      eplewke 17 September 2013 14: 13 New
      0
      I think this is from the category of fiction ... In any case, we learn the truth in 50 years ...
  13. Tartary
    Tartary 17 September 2013 12: 46 New
    +3
    Quote: sergius60
    Appointing an Israeli submarine capable of firing WINGED missiles as a "launcher" of BALLISTIC missiles was touched from the start.

    I noticed that the Jew went through the comments and otminusavat each ...

    That's because the nature of the nation - you can’t imagine worse ...

    Here's a reference, about how the Jews were able to convince Catholics of their God-choice, contrary to the fact of the murder of Christ - http://politobzor.net/show-4725-zagovor-protiv-hristianstva-uhod-papy-rimskogo-b
    enedikta-xvi.html

    I did not regret that I spent almost 3 hours viewing it ...
    1. stalkerwalker
      stalkerwalker 17 September 2013 15: 36 New
      +5
      Quote: Tartary
      I noticed that the Jew went through the comments and otminusavat each ...

      Show this bastard with your finger !!!