Military Review

On the eve of a big war. Bashar Assad is on the verge of defeating the militants, but it is absolutely not satisfied with the West

The US military leadership has announced its readiness to begin intervention against Syria. The reason for this statement was the use of chemical weapons, accompanied by large-scale civilian casualties.

Almost immediately after the first attack, of which the Qatari Al-Jazeera Channel reported without special verification, the United States, France and the United Kingdom accused the accomplished Syrian government.

The UN decided to examine the facts of the use of chemical weapons in Syria in order to find out who committed it. The qualified experts included in the specially created commission represented various countries. Thus, the assessment of the facts of the use of chemical weapons in Syria should be completely objective.

UN Commission as a hindrance

The work of the UN Commission was preceded by an assessment of Russian experts. Relying on a large amount of factual material, they quite clearly proved that chemical weapons were used by the militants of the opposition. One of the important evidence of this was the establishment of the fact of the manufacture of poisonous substances, as well as their combat use using Qassam rockets. These missiles are not in service with the Syrian army, but are regularly used by radical Islamists against Israel. It is known that, after visiting Palestine by the Qatari emir, it was the Sunni wing of these Islamists who began to actively support the Syrian militants with both weapons and personnel.

On the eve of a big war. Bashar Assad is on the verge of defeating the militants, but it is absolutely not satisfied with the West

The results of the work of Russian experts, presented to the UN in the form of a special report, were strikingly dissonant with the allegations against the Syrian leadership. With high probability, the results of the work of the Russians will be confirmed by the UN Commission.

Convinced that the composition of the commission allows us to rely on objective conclusions, the Syrian government has done everything to provide the experts with the opportunity to fully carry out the mission entrusted to it. But this was prevented by opposition fighters.

Not having security guards for the UN commission from the militants, the Syrian leadership could not allow it to the war zone. In the event of any emergencies with its representatives, the blame for this would be on the leadership of the country. In addition, the commission would cease its work without completing the mission entrusted to it, which is very unprofitable for the Syrian government, since it is more interested in an objective investigation of the facts of the use of chemical weapons.

In the conditions of the refusal of Assad's opponents to ensure the safe operation of the UN Commission to guarantee an objective international investigation was possible only after the areas occupied by the militants were cleared. And the Syrian army did it.

After knocking out militants from these areas, Syrian government forces discovered warehouses with chemical weapons of a type that the Syrian army never had.

Such caches were discovered in the suburb of Aleppo and the suburb of Damascus - Jobar. In the latter, some soldiers of the Syrian army received varying degrees of poisoning.

It became obvious: the findings of the UN commission would be disadvantageous both to the militants and their foreign patrons. The result of the commission’s work may be the recognition of the Syrian opposition by the terrorist community, even those who support the militants. Moreover, the United States and Saudi Arabia may be suspected of involvement in chemical attacks against civilians in Syria. According to some media reports, the containers containing materials for the manufacture of chemical warfare agents found in the suburbs of Damascus are marked “Made in the USA” and “Made in Saudi Arabia”.

Under these conditions, the further support of the militants, both political and material, from the interested forces in the West will be very problematic.

Militants lose ground

The situation for those who seek to destroy the legitimate authority in Syria by armed means and put up their puppet government is aggravated by the current situation, when the militants are defeated on almost all fronts.

In addition to the Syrian army, a very efficient organization Hezbollah and Kurdish militants entered the war against them.

In 2006, Hezbollah was able to inflict a serious defeat on the Israeli army - the most powerful in the Middle East. During this conflict, the Israelis suffered significant losses in heavy equipment, in particular in tanks "Merkava-IV".

There is an influx of volunteers from Syria to other countries who are ready to fight on the side of the government. In particular, there are numerous facts of participation in hostilities on the side of the legitimate government of Syria, representatives of Iran.

Having tasted the benefits of "democracy" under the rule of the opposition in areas over which the militants temporarily managed to seize control, the population of the country, in its overwhelming majority, sided with the existing government of Syria and provided assistance to the troops in every possible way.

The atrocities of the militants - the massacres of civilians only exacerbated the general hatred of them.

Thus, the massacre of peaceful Kurds (women, children and the elderly) by militants around 450 made them implacable enemies of the militants.

The Kurds have a very efficient armed organization, hardened in a long-term armed struggle against the Turkish and Iraqi (Saddam Hussein era) armed forces and police.

Under these conditions, there is no reason to rely on the fact that only militant forces will be able to shift the government of Bashar al-Assad.

Those who seek to take control of Syria are extremely worried about the positive changes in convening a peace conference on Syria with the participation of all the conflicting parties, including the irreconcilable opposition known as “Geneva-2”.

Any outcome of the work of this commission will be unacceptable for those who are behind the incitement of the internal Syrian conflict. His positive resolution, when both parties find a suitable agreement for themselves, will mean the success of Russian and Chinese diplomacy. And for the Syrian government and people who have preserved their power, Russia and China will become their main friends, unlike the United States and other Western countries that support the opposition. Their influence in this country for many years will be undermined.

It is not suitable for militants and their foreign patrons, and if the agreement cannot be reached, there will be lost a lot of time during which militants can finally lose the ability to continue the armed struggle.

In this case, the capabilities of the Syrian army to conduct armed struggle will increase, including through the supply of arms from Russia and, possibly, China.

Only the transfer to Damascus of the Russian S-300 air defense systems, provided they are fully mastered by the Syrian army and correctly deployed tactically, can create serious problems for aviation NATO in case of attempted military invasion.

The current development of the internal Syrian situation suggests that the days of the militants in Syria are numbered.

The superiority of the Syrian army, both material (in armament and military equipment) and moral, is unconditional.

The support of the population of militants is incomparably less.

The allies of the Syrian government are strong and well organized - Hezbollah and the Kurdish militants have repeatedly proved this. They are fluent in the methods of guerrilla warfare, in no way inferior to the militants of the opposition - neither in combat training, nor in tactical and operational training, and in many aspects they are superior.

The massive supply of weapons to militants, which have increased dramatically recently, will not fundamentally change anything.

Strange coincidences

According to media reports, a few days ago, militants received about 400 tons of weapons and ammunition. The fact that they themselves stated this testifies only to their difficult situation: such messages discredit both the arms suppliers and their delivery channels. Obviously, this was done in order to morally support his supporters and in part to frighten government forces. Although the positive effect of such an information campaign for militants is obviously insignificant.

Militants cannot be supplied with heavy and most modern weapons - combat aircraft, helicopters, heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, armored vehicles, anti-aircraft missile systems of medium and long range. They do not have the technical and tactical training necessary for their use. Their organizational structure does not allow the use of these types of weapons; the necessary rear and technical basis of their operation is lacking.

The Syrian army has all the conditions for the use of such weapons systems. And they are delivered quite legally within the framework of bilateral military-technical cooperation between Russia and Syria.

Without foreign military intervention, military-technical superiority will remain with the Syrian army and its allies.

And if so, then massive arms deliveries and the buildup of contingents of opposition fighters in Syria will not fundamentally change anything - the strategic initiative is steadily held by the Syrian army and the militants have no prerequisites for interception. Their complete rout is a matter of time, and relatively close at that.

Nevertheless, in these conditions, Jordan launched a large-scale offensive by militants, moreover, under the command of the personnel of special units of the United States, Great Britain and Qatar. Their participation was openly announced by some media. The fact that nothing is said about this offensive is evidence of its likely failure.

This attack strangely coincided with large-scale provocations with chemical weapons and the corresponding sharp tightening of the position of the United States and its allies on the Syrian issue, up to and including statements of readiness to begin military intervention against Syria.

Why did the Americans suddenly go to such a serious aggravation of the situation in conditions when, before this, they were quite actively involved in the peace process within the framework of Geneva-2? Indeed, in Syria, no qualitative changes that could have prompted the United States to take such a step did not happen.

There are many versions on this score. But the answer to this question still needs to be sought in Washington.

War ordered

However, without waiting for the outcome of the work of the UN Commission, Barack Obama said that the attack on Syria will be dealt soon. The president of a great power cannot throw his words to the wind. Now it is a matter of honor.

However, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate is indecent to start a war. And the US president decided to enlist the support of representatives of the American people. Execute the order of congressmen - at least some legislative justification. Now the further fate of not only Syria, but also the entire region depends on the decision of the congress.
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