Russia ceases to be a raw materials appendage?

Today, only the lazy does not talk about the curse of the oil needle. The growth of the share of oil revenues of Russian exports to many does not give rest and is interpreted by some liberal economists only as a sign of the looming decline of Putin’s system.

If you look at the data export structure Federal State Statistics Serviceit is easy to see that from 1995, the share of mineral raw materials, or more simply, oil and gas in the export structure has almost doubled - from 42% to 70% in 2011. At the same time, the nominal growth in mineral exports increased more than 10 times, from 33 billion dollars in 1995 year to 362 billion dollars in 2011 year.

The graph below shows the change in the volume of Russian exports from 1995 of the year by groups of goods in millions of US dollars in prices of the corresponding year.

The graph shows that the volume of exports of mineral products grew faster than any other goods.

For ease of perception of the picture, we divide all products into two groups, mineral products and other products.

The above graph clearly shows the results of the destructive economic policies pursued by Putin and his team. Under Yeltsin, exports of minerals and other products were almost equal, but since 2000, the share of exports of minerals has grown very rapidly and in 2011, it already doubled the share of other products.

There is one BUT truth here - the rise in oil prices.

The graph below shows the change in the price of oil per barrel in the international market from 1995 of the year in US dollars.

The price of oil in 1995 was 17 dollars per barrel, and in 2011 already 110. That is, growth over 16 years was 6,5 times.

Since the prices of other products did not stand still, but were subject to inflation, it will not be superfluous to look at how the price of the dollar has changed since 1995 of the year.

We see that the dollar in 16 years lost about a third of its value.

If we apply dollar inflation and the change in the price of oil prices to the second chart, we will get this completely unexpected picture.

Changes in the volume of Russian exports, taking into account inflation and rising prices for 1995-2011 oil in millions of US dollars in 1995 prices

Speaking in simple Russian, if prices had not changed since 1995, we would be surprised to find that the volume of exports of non-mineral products would grow at a faster pace. Even more curious is the fact that intensive growth began in the first half of the 2000s.

Here is the change in the volume of exports of goods with inflation in prices 1995 year.

Below are the data on changes in the real export volume of some products with the highest growth rates:

• Food and agricultural products - increase 5,8 times

• Products of the chemical industry - increase 2,6 times

• Machinery, equipment, and vehicles — 2 fold increase.

I want to summarize all the above with the following conclusion: the growth in the share of exports of mineral products such as oil and gas is a natural process caused by a sharp rise in energy prices in recent years, and not at all a sign of some problems in the Russian economy.

In order for a rapid increase in oil prices to maintain a high share of exports of non-primary products, it is necessary either to significantly accelerate the growth rate of industrial production — it had to be about tenfold in 15 years or significantly reduce the volume of oil exports.

The first alternative seems to me not very realizable, the second is not very logical.

Comments

[serge-68-68]

Understanding the importance of evidence that everything is fine in the Russian economy, I note: I see the problems of the Russian economy on the streets of my city. Factories are converted into shopping centers, operating enterprises cannot find skilled workers (only security guards and lawyers are around), the official is the most prestigious profession, the gap between the salary of the worker and director is simply gigantic, expensive and falling apart roads that are easier, probably, to pave with gold, crazy the price of a square meter of housing, which makes you take a mortgage at equally crazy interest ... Etc. etc. And I, as a simple citizen, do not care about appendages and evidence of their absence.

[Asgard]

I will add to the article and your statements ....
Oil is even cheaper for the West, since the bulk of the sale of oil and gas revenues goes to the "box" of some kind of welfare fund)))
They don't go to the Russian economy - Vova Putin said - "We didn't earn them" (cit.)))
A significant part of Russia's profits is controlled by Washington through the Fed and is mirrored in the reports of the Central Bank of Russia, where it is fixed at the current exchange rate in rubles.

Further, this profit goes to support the exchange rate of the Euro, the Dollar and the Pound Sterling, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation buys and pounds excess cash dollars in its depository at Kashirka. Today, there are already concentrated more than 21 trillion cash dollars, but they are not given to anyone.

In the end, they just “throw” us .....
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation forces Russian banks to borrow money all over the world in the branches of Rothschild banks. Moreover, in accordance with the Charter of the Central Bank of Russia, he does not have the right to provide loans either to the Government of Russia, or to the Federal or Municipal authorities! Thus, although the Central Bank makes money on Russia's natural resources, the entire monetary resource leaves the country, being pumped at a negligible 2% in US dollars, or our unsecured derivatives are bought with our money. That's why our whole country is on the verge of death, because the Central Bank sucks out everything that can, like a huge pump, because engineering and some other industries are degrading, in general, like the whole country. Moreover, all the wars waged by the armies of the European Union, the USA and Israel are paid for by our Russian financial resource! And it's time to take this resource from them by nationalization .............

[aksakal]

Quote: Asgard

And it's time to take this resource from them by nationalization .............

- and I really liked the recent hint of Nabiullina towards your Central Bank She said there that of course she respects the independence and independence of the Central Bank, BUT ...! And what But - you read there. Not long "the bird is free to sing!" (well, or work like

Quote: Asgard

huge pump

- as you like). I can’t wait until Nabiullina turns from words to deeds. Glazyev’s influence is also growing - there are also hopes that your wishes will come true

[aksakal]

Quote: serge-68-68

Understanding the importance of evidence that everything is fine in the Russian economy, I note: I see the problems of the Russian economy on the streets of my city. Factories are converted into shopping centers, operating enterprises cannot find qualified workers (around there are only security guards and lawyers), an official

- nevertheless, there is some truth in the SABJ. I just could not understand what Russia exported there during the EBN? In Kazakhstan, apart from "Dovgan" vodka and bakery mini-factories (in my opinion, "Dovgan" too), during the time of EBN, nothing was supplied from Russia. It is a fact. There was a certain surge in supplies from Russia in 98 due to the fall in the ruble exchange rate, and therefore cars from Russia became adequate in price - and this was a short period.
Now the volume of non-oil supplies to Kazakhstan from Russia is many times greater, in any case agricultural products and the food industry - in addition to traditional vodka, there is also confectionery) babaevksiy, Rot front), and sausages (Cherkizovsky), and milk (Vim-Bil-Dan , Lebedyansk) ... In short, just a lot. In the field of building materials - in the 90s there was nothing from Russia in the region of sloppy wallpaper from Syktyvkar. Now, without Russians, you can’t build a house.
These are all facts. Therefore, the truth is true in the Sabzh: how can the oil dependence of Russia increase with such an increase in non-resource supplies not only to Kazakhstan? An almost 10-fold increase in oil prices really distorts the picture.
As for the facts you cited - yes, if it were not for these facts, the results would be much more impressive! Especially "kills" corruption, which cannot be dealt with and, by and large, and do not want to deal with. The gap in wages in the USSR was: director 600-650 rubles, good worker - 250-300 rubles. Now for some reason the gap is almost 10 times !!! Worker - about or less than 1000 cu, gendir - more than 10 thousand cu. even a small enterprise! Plus golden parachutes.
With all agreement - we all see this too - to selectively look and see only what you want to see is a flawed position. You need to see in a complex to get an objective picture.

[Joker]

Sorry, but the article is utter nonsense. Oil has risen in price for 6.5 once and here is the profit, multiplying the old income by 6.5 will turn out today, so that all the change is purely due to rising prices. Further on other products, the price did not stand either on the spot, inflation takes its own, so even here it passes by, even if we take annual inflation in 4-5%. So there is no export growth, there is only a price increase for everything.

[Valery Neonov]

For me, as an ordinary man in the street, everything will certainly look encouraging. Here is someone who has educated me when the rise in gas prices, diz. fuel and gas ...

[Revolver]

Quote: Valery Neon

Here's another one who taught when the rise in gas prices, diz. fuel and gas ...

While abroad pay more for hydrocarbons, they will flow there. And since prices are equal, they will cease to leak. So the prices will stop when they become equal to the western ones. How much is gasoline in Russia today? The last time I poured myself at $ 3.60 / gallon (3.785 liters) - about 95 cents / liter. In Europe, I know, many times more expensive due to taxes.
So it would be better if you asked when the salaries are equal to the Western ones, so that you can live with the western level of prices.

[Valery Neonov]

And when the salary is equal, do not tell me, but ...

[seller trucks]

Quote: Valery Neonov

And when the salary is equal, do not tell me, but ...

if you follow the link to the article, then there is the material of the same Alexey Schmidt comparing the salary in Russia and Germany, I generally liked the author very much, so I offered to be posted on the VO since Friday.

[alicante11]

So, this, it turns out after all 31-35. And I, for example, run the 95 for 33-30

[Dazdranagon]

When the oil runs out!

[Chuck-norris]

Was in the summer in Norway ... there is gold gasoline. If I tell you the price you won’t believe it!

[Yarosvet]

Quote: Chuck-Norris

Was in the summer in Norway ... there is gold gasoline. If I tell you the price you won’t believe it!

You tell me, but at the same time remind me what is the minimum wage in Norway

[Revolver]

It seems to me, in accordance with the flag, I need to engage in malice, but I, on the contrary, would like to believe that what is said in the article is true, and Russia is getting up from its knees. Of course, the roots affect, but not only. Including, I would like to believe in it because of my selfish interests. Naked and hungry, like North Koreans, can in one moment, far from being perfect for everyone around them, from evil say: "Burn it all with a clear flame!" It is good that they have one or two "combustible materials", but even then neighbors, especially South Koreans, will not find it enough. And I would prefer to see Russia well-fed and comfortable, so that there would be less desire to do something out of harm's way, but more understanding of what there is to lose.
You can minus the bourgeois philosophy, but somehow.

[MuadDib]

I will note, with a grain of sarcasm, that everything is fine with the economy. After all, they have already begun to introduce a standard for electricity consumption. And in some places absurd. And the finance minister of finance blurted out that the maternity capital should be abolished in order to avoid a budget deficit. How would a hedgehog understand that the economy begins with the working class, from the point of view of officials. But the worker understands that the fish rots from the head.

[domokl]

I am always surprised by the fear of an oil needle ... We trade what we have and we put Europe on our oil and gas. And it is not known what is more important for us is our dependence on the sale of hydrocarbons or their dependence on our hydrocarbons ...

[Garrin]

Quote: domokl

I am always surprised at the fear of an oil needle ..

There is no fear, but "it is insulting for the state." Why, like the Papuans, do we trade in crude oil, and not in the products of its processing? Why are oligarchs only pumping from the bowels, and not building new plants? There are a lot of questions.

[Hort]

Yes, not even products of its processing, but finished high-tech products. After all, we can, if desired, produce products no worse than Western ones in quality.

[Yarosvet]

Quote: domokl

I am always surprised by the fear of an oil needle ...

The essence of the oil needle is not in the sale of oil and gas, but in the sale of ONLY oil and gas, without creating an internal market and production enabling self-sufficiency.

[Oskar]

Fear of an oil needle is justified. The price of oil will collapse - everything will go to hell! All social programs, re-equipment, pensions, public sector salaries, etc.
Logically, with such an economy, we ourselves will soon have to constantly destabilize the oil market and call it healthy competition. The more difficult the situation in and around the oil exporting countries, the better our "healthy" economy. It turns out that the US with its "Tomahawks", pursuing its own interests, and protecting the interests of our "economy"?
If Putin is such an enemy of the United States, then the latter only need to ensure the economic and political peace of the oil-producing countries, as well as the usual political pressure to stimulate an increase in the total volume of production in these countries for 1-2 years. And that's it! The era of "stability" in the Russian Federation is rapidly transforming into something else. In the late 80s we went through this.

[Renat]

The graphs above are not hard to understand. Everything is drawn and commented on simply and clearly. But for the average citizen of the country, the fact that the dollar is growing again and with it the price, respectively, while the income has remained at the same level, there is nothing encouraging.

[Odysseus]

I will reveal a "terrible secret": the socio-economic course of the 90s is absolutely no different from the socio-economic course of the 2000-2010s.
The differences, except for oil prices, are only in the fact that the social gains of the Soviet power that were still residually alive in the 90s are now practically eliminated.
And this course is not "liberal", not "patriotic" and certainly not "social democratic" - it is colonial.
The closest analogues are the Latin American countries of the 70-90s, or China until 1949. The truth, unlike them, the Russian Federation inherited from the RSFSR nuclear weapons and partial political legitimacy (for which there is now a struggle)
But the opposition of the "liberal" 90s to the "patriotic" 2000s is just a masquerade, a play of shadows. Just the old mask - "liberalism" by the end of the 90s aroused absolute disgust among everyone, and besides, it did not fit into a terrible mum Yeltsin's regime.

[Oskar]

We live in the illusion of the state!

[Oskar]

Quote: domokl

and we planted Europe on our oil and gas. And it is not known what is more important for us is our dependence on the sale of hydrocarbons or their dependence on our hydrocarbons ...

And the Papuans apparently think that the United States and the European Union are sitting on their banana-pineapple "needle" ...

[Hitrovan07]

Everyone pays their "owner" with whatever they can - the Papuans with bananas, Russia - with oil and gas (they have become coming to an end - they have switched to other natural resources in one form or another). Alas.

[Normal]

If necessary, then using statistics, graphs and numbers, you can make absolutely any conclusions and the paper will bear it. In real life, I do not care what is shown on the graph. Prices, inflation, salaries, the possibility of education and employment, medical care and housing are important to me. Here, not everything is so rosy with me .... Maybe we are moving away from oil dependence, or maybe not ....

[Revolver]

Quote: Normal

If necessary, then using statistics, graphs and numbers, you can make absolutely any conclusions and the paper will bear it.

Well, yes, as one clever British Jew, Disraeli, put it, there are "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" (lies, damned lies, and statistics).

[lotar]

God forbid that the article reflects reality. I completely agree with the opinion of one of the commentators that it is time to switch from the sale of crude oil to its refined products. I also want to add that we all need to strive not to catch up with developed countries in the field of scientific and technological progress and go ahead of the clock, constantly offer something new, two generations ahead of the scientific and technological progress of the rest of the world.

[101]

That's right. We need a time machine and a perpetual motion machine, and fly to the alpha centaur, otherwise we’ll wander around in the tail of world progress

[Kolya]

Who consumes energy - that is developing. Oil needs to be put on the domestic market and Russia should be developed. In the modern economy, oil and gas are transformed into food, textiles, electricity, etc., etc., all from oil and gas. Wherever you stick your finger, everywhere a piece of oil is laid. For the domestic market, oil should go at domestic prices! And for the export of oil - a larger tax, and then there will be order!

[saag]

Quote: Oskar

We live in the illusion of the state!

The USSR is not, the international is dead, there is no ideology, there is only globalization, if you want the country to reproduce all or almost all of itself, then you need to start with ideology

[Horst78]

USSR no, the international is dead no ideology, there is only globalization, if you want the country to reproduce all or almost all of itself, then you need to start with ideologies

so we kind of constitutionally prohibited ideology can change the constitution

[Yarosvet]

Quote: saag

if you want the country to reproduce all or almost all of itself, then you need to start with ideology

Quote: Horst78

so we kind of constitutionally prohibited ideology can change the constitution

Not - let's begin to understand what ideology is, and the conclusions are comparable with the provisions of the Constitution

[shurup]

And in parrots, a boa constrictor is longer.
Taxes and duties, or rather their absence due to mineral raw materials, can raise the export of the processing industry and mechanical engineering to heights convenient for compilers.
The last case with Uralkali demonstrates that a dog is buried somewhere in Switzerland, where the percentage of export of mineral raw materials also grows.

[dojjdik]

and then the states and Israel are going to war on Iran (no bullshit about some kind of nuclear threat) and now we are sitting on an oil "needle" and the states are skipping exporting liquefied gas, robbing the same Qatar; countries that have large natural resources will never be "appendages" - this philosophy was invented by liars "American Democrats" back in the days of the USSR; while the states, under the guise of their own stupid "appendages and needles" philosophy, have drilled a huge number of wells in search of gas at the same time; so why did they do it in order to sit on the "gas needle"?

[Grif]

[Quote]
and the states of Skok take out liquefied gas by robbing the same Qatar
Poor robbed Qatar! I wish someone robbed us like that!

[Yves762]

There are not enough distribution diagrams where money comes from this very export ...

[individual]

Gaidar-Chubaisin ruined the industry of Russia and made the raw materials appendage of the West.
Now we need to start all over and we need a leader like Stalin to revive Russia from the ashes of the Gorbachev-Yeltsin fire in Russia.

[Yarosvet]

Quote: individ

need a leader like Stalin

While there is nothing left for the leader’s boom to expect from the country, a person becomes a leader when others follow him, and not before they follow him.

[Yarosvet]

What are all the same interesting charts - everything is indicated not in units of goods, but in total.

I’ll say a commonplace, but often forgotten thing - the price rises, the amount grows - an increase in production or export in this vein is completely optional.

[Lopatov]

And what does "In units of goods" mean?

[Yarosvet]

Quote: Spade

And what does "In units of goods" mean?

We sell grain, which means in tons - for the 99th and 2012th, for example, we sell machine tools, then piece by piece.

With oil, it’s a bit easier - its export from 2000 to 2012 increased by 65%, but this is not shown in the graphs above, not to mention the export structure of the indicated positions.

[Lopatov]

Quote: Yarosvet

We sell grain, which means in tons - for the 99th and 2012th, for example, we sell machine tools, then piece by piece.

Let's try. For example, they sold 1000 tons more grain, 1000 more machines, 1000 more barrels of oil. Is this good or bad? Does this indicate an even greater raw material dependence, or the opposite?

[Lopatov]

Speaking of machines in pieces. For example, last year 100 grinding and one modern processing centers were sold, this includes 10 grinding and 10 processing centers.
If you approach this fact objectively, this is good, the share of high-tech products is increasing.
If you approach from your position, machines in pieces, then vice versa is bad. 101 more than 20.

[Yarosvet]

Quote: Spade

For example, they sold 1000 tons more grain, 1000 more machines, 1000 more barrels of oil. Is this good or bad? Does this indicate an even greater raw material dependence, or the opposite?

With the sufficiency of the indicated goods in the domestic market, this is good.

Quote: Spade

If you approach from your position, machines in pieces, then vice versa is bad.

??? This is where did I indicate my position?