Military Review

Russia ceases to be a raw materials appendage?

28
Russia ceases to be a raw materials appendage?



Today, only the lazy does not talk about the curse of the oil needle. The growth of the share of oil revenues of Russian exports to many does not give rest and is interpreted by some liberal economists only as a sign of the looming decline of Putin’s system.

If you look at the data export structure Federal State Statistics Serviceit is easy to see that from 1995, the share of mineral raw materials, or more simply, oil and gas in the export structure has almost doubled - from 42% to 70% in 2011. At the same time, the nominal growth in mineral exports increased more than 10 times, from 33 billion dollars in 1995 year to 362 billion dollars in 2011 year.

The graph below shows the change in the volume of Russian exports from 1995 of the year by groups of goods in millions of US dollars in prices of the corresponding year.



The graph shows that the volume of exports of mineral products grew faster than any other goods.

For ease of perception of the picture, we divide all products into two groups, mineral products and other products.



The above graph clearly shows the results of the destructive economic policies pursued by Putin and his team. Under Yeltsin, exports of minerals and other products were almost equal, but since 2000, the share of exports of minerals has grown very rapidly and in 2011, it already doubled the share of other products.

There is one BUT truth here - the rise in oil prices.

The graph below shows the change in the price of oil per barrel in the international market from 1995 of the year in US dollars.



The price of oil in 1995 was 17 dollars per barrel, and in 2011 already 110. That is, growth over 16 years was 6,5 times.

Since the prices of other products did not stand still, but were subject to inflation, it will not be superfluous to look at how the price of the dollar has changed since 1995 of the year.



We see that the dollar in 16 years lost about a third of its value.

If we apply dollar inflation and the change in the price of oil prices to the second chart, we will get this completely unexpected picture.

Changes in the volume of Russian exports, taking into account inflation and rising prices for 1995-2011 oil in millions of US dollars in 1995 prices



Speaking in simple Russian, if prices had not changed since 1995, we would be surprised to find that the volume of exports of non-mineral products would grow at a faster pace. Even more curious is the fact that intensive growth began in the first half of the 2000s.

Here is the change in the volume of exports of goods with inflation in prices 1995 year.



Below are the data on changes in the real export volume of some products with the highest growth rates:

• Food and agricultural products - increase 5,8 times

• Products of the chemical industry - increase 2,6 times

• Machinery, equipment, and vehicles — 2 fold increase.

I want to summarize all the above with the following conclusion: the growth in the share of exports of mineral products such as oil and gas is a natural process caused by a sharp rise in energy prices in recent years, and not at all a sign of some problems in the Russian economy.

In order for a rapid increase in oil prices to maintain a high share of exports of non-primary products, it is necessary either to significantly accelerate the growth rate of industrial production — it had to be about tenfold in 15 years or significantly reduce the volume of oil exports.

The first alternative seems to me not very realizable, the second is not very logical.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.alexej-schmidt.de/
28 comments
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  1. serge-68-68
    serge-68-68 4 September 2013 06: 27 New
    25
    Understanding the importance of evidence that everything is fine in the Russian economy, I note: I see the problems of the Russian economy on the streets of my city. Factories are converted into shopping centers, operating enterprises cannot find skilled workers (only security guards and lawyers are around), the official is the most prestigious profession, the gap between the salary of the worker and director is simply gigantic, expensive and falling apart roads that are easier, probably, to pave with gold, crazy the price of a square meter of housing, which makes you take a mortgage at equally crazy interest ... Etc. etc. And I, as a simple citizen, do not care about appendages and evidence of their absence.
    1. Asgard
      Asgard 4 September 2013 09: 08 New
      11
      I will add to the article and your statements ....
      Oil is even cheaper for the West, since the bulk of the sale of oil and gas revenues goes to the “little pillar” of the Welfare Fund there)))
      They do not go to the Russian economy, Vova Putin said, “We did not earn them” (cit.)))
      A significant part of Russia's profits is controlled by Washington through the Fed and is mirrored in the reports of the Central Bank of Russia, where it is fixed at the current exchange rate in rubles.

      Further, this profit goes to support the exchange rate of the Euro, the Dollar and the Pound Sterling, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation buys and pounds excess cash dollars in its depository at Kashirka. Today, there are already concentrated more than 21 trillion cash dollars, but they are not given to anyone.

      In the end, they just “throw” us .....
      The Central Bank of the Russian Federation forces Russian banks to borrow money all over the world in the branches of Rothschild banks. Moreover, in accordance with the Charter of the Central Bank of Russia, he does not have the right to provide loans either to the Government of Russia, or to the Federal or Municipal authorities! Thus, although the Central Bank makes money on Russia's natural resources, the entire monetary resource leaves the country, being pumped at a negligible 2% in US dollars, or our unsecured derivatives are bought with our money. That's why our whole country is on the verge of death, because the Central Bank sucks out everything that can, like a huge pump, because engineering and some other industries are degrading, in general, like the whole country. Moreover, all the wars waged by the armies of the European Union, the USA and Israel are paid for by our Russian financial resource! And it's time to take this resource from them by nationalization .............
      1. aksakal
        aksakal 4 September 2013 09: 29 New
        +6
        Quote: Asgard
        And it's time to take this resource from them by nationalization .............

        - and I really liked the recent hint of Nabiullina towards your Central Bank laughing She said there that of course she respects the independence and independence of the Central Bank, BUT ...! And what But - you read there. Not long "the bird on the outside singing left!" laughing (well, or work like
        Quote: Asgard
        huge pump

        - as you like). I can’t wait until Nabiullina turns from words to deeds. Glazyev’s influence is also growing - there are also hopes that your wishes will come true
    2. aksakal
      aksakal 4 September 2013 09: 23 New
      +6
      Quote: serge-68-68
      Understanding the importance of evidence that everything is fine in the Russian economy, I note: I see the problems of the Russian economy on the streets of my city. Factories are converted into shopping centers, operating enterprises cannot find qualified workers (around there are only security guards and lawyers), an official

      - nevertheless, there is some truth in the subject. I just could not understand what Russia exported there during the EBN? In Kazakhstan, in addition to Dovgan vodka and mini-bakeries (in my opinion, Dovgan too), nothing from Russia was supplied during the EBN. It is a fact. A certain surge in deliveries from Russia was in 98 due to the depreciation of the ruble, and therefore cars from Russia became adequate in price - and this was a short period.
      Now the volume of non-oil supplies to Kazakhstan from Russia is many times greater, in any case agricultural products and the food industry - in addition to traditional vodka, there is also confectionery) babaevksiy, Rot front), and sausages (Cherkizovsky), and milk (Vim-Bil-Dan , Lebedyansk) ... In short, just a lot. In the field of building materials - in the 90s there was nothing from Russia in the region of sloppy wallpaper from Syktyvkar. Now, without Russians, you can’t build a house.
      These are all facts. Therefore, the truth is true in the Sabzh: how can the oil dependence of Russia increase with such an increase in non-resource supplies not only to Kazakhstan? An almost 10-fold increase in oil prices really distorts the picture.
      As for the facts you cited - yes, if not for these facts, the results would be much more impressive! Corruption is especially “killing”, with which they can’t cope in any way, and by and large, they don’t want to cope. The salary gap in the USSR was: director 600-650 rubles, a good worker - 250-300 rubles. Now for some reason, the gap is almost 10 times !!! Worker - about or less than 1000 cu, gender - more than 10 thousand cu even a small business! Plus golden parachutes.
      With all agreement - we all see this too - to selectively look and see only what you want to see is a flawed position. You need to see in a complex to get an objective picture.
    3. Joker
      Joker 4 September 2013 21: 04 New
      +4
      Sorry, but the article is utter nonsense. Oil has risen in price for 6.5 once and here is the profit, multiplying the old income by 6.5 will turn out today, so that all the change is purely due to rising prices. Further on other products, the price did not stand either on the spot, inflation takes its own, so even here it passes by, even if we take annual inflation in 4-5%. So there is no export growth, there is only a price increase for everything.
  2. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 4 September 2013 06: 32 New
    +5
    hi For me, as an ordinary man in the street, everything will certainly look encouraging. Here is someone who has educated me when the rise in gas prices, diz. fuel and gas ...
    1. Revolver
      Revolver 4 September 2013 06: 51 New
      +8
      Quote: Valery Neon
      Here's another one who taught when the rise in gas prices, diz. fuel and gas ...
      While abroad pay more for hydrocarbons, they will flow there. And since prices are equal, they will cease to leak. So the prices will stop when they become equal to the western ones. How much is gasoline in Russia today? The last time I poured myself at $ 3.60 / gallon (3.785 liters) - about 95 cents / liter. In Europe, I know, many times more expensive due to taxes.
      So it would be better if you asked when the salaries are equal to the Western ones, so that you can live with the western level of prices.
      1. Valery Neonov
        Valery Neonov 4 September 2013 07: 05 New
        +3
        And when the salary is equal, do not tell me, but ... laughing
        1. seller trucks
          4 September 2013 09: 41 New
          -1
          Quote: Valery Neon
          And when the salary is equal, do not tell me, but ...


          if you follow the link to the article, then there is the material of the same Alexey Schmidt comparing the salary in Russia and Germany, I generally liked the author very much, so I offered to be posted on the VO since Friday.
      2. alicante11
        alicante11 4 September 2013 15: 00 New
        +1
        So, this, it turns out after all 31-35. And I, for example, run the 95 for 33-30
    2. Dazdranagon
      Dazdranagon 4 September 2013 08: 01 New
      +2
      When the oil runs out! laughing
    3. Chuck-norris
      Chuck-norris 4 September 2013 11: 10 New
      +1
      Was in the summer in Norway ... there is gold gasoline. If I tell you the price you won’t believe it!
      1. Yarosvet
        Yarosvet 4 September 2013 11: 46 New
        +2
        Quote: Chuck-Norris
        Was in the summer in Norway ... there is gold gasoline. If I tell you the price you won’t believe it!

        You tell me, but at the same time remind me what is the minimum wage in Norway laughing
  3. Revolver
    Revolver 4 September 2013 06: 37 New
    10
    It seems to me, in accordance with the flag, it is necessary to engage in spitefulness, and, on the contrary, I would like to believe that what the article says is true, and Russia is rising from its knees. Of course, the roots affect, but not only. Including I would like to believe in it and because of my selfish interests. Naked and hungry, such as North Koreans, can at one moment, which is far from perfect for everyone around them, say from evil: “Burn it all with a clear flame!” It’s good that they’ve gotten enough of “combustible materials” once or twice, but it’s not enough for neighbors, especially South Koreans. And I would rather see Russia well-fed and comfortable, so that there would be less desire to do something wrong, and more understanding of what we ourselves have to lose.
    You can minus the bourgeois philosophy, but somehow.
  4. MuadDib
    MuadDib 4 September 2013 06: 44 New
    12
    I note, with a share of sarcasm, that everything is fine with the economy. After all, they have already begun to introduce a standard for electricity consumption. And in some places absurd. And the Minister of Finance of Finance "blurted out" that it would be necessary to abolish maternal capital in order to avoid a budget deficit. As if the hedgehog, it becomes clear that the economy begins with the working class, from the point of view of officials. But the worker understands that the fish rots from the head.
  5. domokl
    domokl 4 September 2013 06: 44 New
    +9
    I am always surprised by the fear of an oil needle ... We trade what we have and we put Europe on our oil and gas. And it is not known what is more important for us is our dependence on the sale of hydrocarbons or their dependence on our hydrocarbons ...
    1. Garrin
      Garrin 4 September 2013 06: 54 New
      14
      Quote: domokl
      I am always surprised at the fear of an oil needle ..

      There is no fear, but it’s a shame for the power. Why, like the Papuans, trade in crude oil and not its refined products? Why do oligarchs only pump out of the bowels and not build new plants? A lot of questions.
      1. Hort
        Hort 4 September 2013 08: 55 New
        +5
        Yes, not even products of its processing, but finished high-tech products. After all, we can, if desired, produce products no worse than Western ones in quality.
      2. Yarosvet
        Yarosvet 4 September 2013 11: 05 New
        +3
        Quote: domokl
        I am always surprised by the fear of an oil needle ...
        The essence of the oil needle is not in the sale of oil and gas, but in the sale of ONLY oil and gas, without creating an internal market and production enabling self-sufficiency.
    2. Oskar
      Oskar 4 September 2013 07: 06 New
      +7
      Fear of an oil needle is justified. The price of oil will collapse - everything will go to hell! All social programs, re-equipment, pensions, public sector salaries, etc.
      Logically, with such an economy, we ourselves will soon have to constantly destabilize the oil market and call it healthy competition. The more difficult the situation in and around oil-exporting countries, the better our "healthy" economy. It turns out that the United States, with its Tomahawks, in pursuit of its own interests, also protects the interests of our "economy"?
      If Putin is such an enemy of the United States, the latter only need to ensure the economic and political peace of the oil-producing countries, as well as the usual political pressure to stimulate an increase in the total production in these countries by 1-2 years. And that’s it! The era of "stability" in the Russian Federation is quickly transforming into something else. In the late 80s, we went through this.
  6. Renat
    Renat 4 September 2013 06: 53 New
    +6
    The graphs above are not hard to understand. Everything is drawn and commented on simply and clearly. But for the average citizen of the country, the fact that the dollar is growing again and with it the price, respectively, while the income has remained at the same level, there is nothing encouraging.
  7. Odysseus
    Odysseus 4 September 2013 07: 12 New
    10
    I’ll tell you a “terrible secret”: the socio-economic course of the 90s is no different from the socio-economic course of the 2000-2010s.
    The differences, except for oil prices, are only in the fact that the social gains of the Soviet power that were still residually alive in the 90s are now practically eliminated.
    And this course is not "liberal," not "patriotic," and even less so "social-democratic," it is colonial.
    The closest analogues are the Latin American countries of the 70-90s, or China until 1949. The truth, unlike them, the Russian Federation inherited from the RSFSR nuclear weapons and partial political legitimacy (for which there is now a struggle)
    But the opposition of the "liberal" 90s to the "patriotic" 2000s is just a masquerade, a play of shadows. The old mask of "liberalism" simply caused absolute disgust by the end of the 90s, and besides, there was no creepy mug Yeltsin’s regime.
    1. Oskar
      Oskar 4 September 2013 07: 20 New
      +4
      We live in the illusion of the state!
  8. Oskar
    Oskar 4 September 2013 07: 12 New
    +5
    Quote: domokl
    and we planted Europe on our oil and gas. And it is not known what is more important for us is our dependence on the sale of hydrocarbons or their dependence on our hydrocarbons ...

    And the Papuans apparently think that the United States and the European Union are sitting on their banana-pineapple "needle" ...
    1. Hitrovan07
      Hitrovan07 4 September 2013 09: 10 New
      +5
      Everyone pays his "master" what he can - the Papuans with bananas, Russia - with oil and gas (they have come to an end - they switched to other natural resources in one form or another). Alas.
  9. Normal
    Normal 4 September 2013 07: 16 New
    +9
    If necessary, then using statistics, graphs and numbers, you can make absolutely any conclusions and the paper will bear it. In real life, I do not care what is shown on the graph. Prices, inflation, salaries, the possibility of education and employment, medical care and housing are important to me. Here, not everything is so rosy with me .... Maybe we are moving away from oil dependence, or maybe not ....
    1. Revolver
      Revolver 4 September 2013 08: 58 New
      +4
      Quote: Normal
      If necessary, then using statistics, graphs and numbers, you can make absolutely any conclusions and the paper will bear it.

      Well, yes, as one smart British Jew, Disraeli said, it happens, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” (lies, damned lies, and statistics).
  10. lotar
    lotar 4 September 2013 07: 19 New
    +2
    God forbid that the article reflects reality. I completely agree with the opinion of one of the commentators that it is time to switch from the sale of crude oil to its refined products. I also want to add that we all need to strive not to catch up with developed countries in the field of scientific and technological progress and go ahead of the clock, constantly offer something new, two generations ahead of the scientific and technological progress of the rest of the world.
    1. 101
      101 4 September 2013 09: 11 New
      0
      That's right. We need a time machine and a perpetual motion machine, and fly to the alpha centaur, otherwise we’ll wander around in the tail of world progress
  11. Kolya
    Kolya 4 September 2013 07: 35 New
    +7
    Who consumes energy - that is developing. Oil needs to be put on the domestic market and Russia should be developed. In the modern economy, oil and gas are transformed into food, textiles, electricity, etc., etc., all from oil and gas. Wherever you stick your finger, everywhere a piece of oil is laid. For the domestic market, oil should go at domestic prices! And for the export of oil - a larger tax, and then there will be order!
  12. saag
    saag 4 September 2013 07: 41 New
    +4
    Quote: Oskar
    We live in the illusion of the state!

    The USSR is not, the international is dead, there is no ideology, there is only globalization, if you want the country to reproduce all or almost all of itself, then you need to start with ideology
    1. Horst78
      Horst78 4 September 2013 09: 18 New
      +2
      USSR no, the international is dead no ideology, there is only globalization, if you want the country to reproduce all or almost all of itself, then you need to start with ideologies
      so we kind of constitutionally prohibited ideology what can change the constitution
      1. Yarosvet
        Yarosvet 4 September 2013 11: 11 New
        +3
        Quote: saag
        if you want the country to reproduce all or almost all of itself, then you need to start with ideology

        Quote: Horst78
        so we kind of constitutionally prohibited ideology can change the constitution

        Not - let's begin to understand what ideology is, and the conclusions are comparable with the provisions of the Constitution laughing
  13. shurup
    shurup 4 September 2013 07: 52 New
    +2
    And in parrots, a boa constrictor is longer.
    Taxes and duties, or rather their absence due to mineral raw materials, can raise the export of the processing industry and mechanical engineering to heights convenient for compilers.
    The last case with Uralkali demonstrates that a dog is buried somewhere in Switzerland, where the percentage of export of mineral raw materials also grows.
  14. dojjdik
    dojjdik 4 September 2013 08: 01 New
    0
    and then the states and Israel climb the war against Iran (current does not need to talk about some kind of nuclear threat) and now we are sitting on the oil "needle" and the states are jumping liquefied gas by robbing the same catarrh; countries that have large natural reserves will never be "appendages" - this philosophy was invented by liars "American Democrats" in the days of the USSR; while the states drilled a huge number of wells in search of gas, in the guise of their own stupid philosophy of “appendages and needles”; so why did they do maybe to sit on the "gas needle"?
  15. Grif
    Grif 4 September 2013 08: 24 New
    +1
    [Quote]
    and the states of Skok take out liquefied gas by robbing the same Qatar
    Poor robbed Qatar! I wish someone robbed us like that!
  16. Yves762
    Yves762 4 September 2013 08: 38 New
    +6
    There are not enough distribution diagrams where money comes from this very export ...
  17. individual
    individual 4 September 2013 09: 36 New
    +2
    Gaidar-Chubaisin ruined the industry of Russia and made the raw materials appendage of the West.
    Now we need to start all over and we need a leader like Stalin to revive Russia from the ashes of the Gorbachev-Yeltsin fire in Russia.
    1. Yarosvet
      Yarosvet 4 September 2013 11: 15 New
      +1
      Quote: individ
      need a leader like Stalin

      While there is nothing left for the leader’s boom to expect from the country, a person becomes a leader when others follow him, and not before they follow him.
  18. Yarosvet
    Yarosvet 4 September 2013 11: 20 New
    +1
    What are all the same interesting charts - everything is indicated not in units of goods, but in total. laughing

    I’ll say a commonplace, but often forgotten thing - the price rises, the amount grows - an increase in production or export in this vein is completely optional.
    1. Lopatov
      Lopatov 4 September 2013 11: 32 New
      0
      And what does "In units of goods" mean?
      1. Yarosvet
        Yarosvet 4 September 2013 11: 44 New
        +2
        Quote: Spade
        And what does "In units of goods" mean?

        We sell grain, which means in tons - for the 99th and 2012th, for example, we sell machine tools, then piece by piece.

        With oil, it’s a bit easier - its export from 2000 to 2012 increased by 65%, but this is not shown in the graphs above, not to mention the export structure of the indicated positions.
        1. Lopatov
          Lopatov 4 September 2013 11: 51 New
          0
          Quote: Yarosvet
          We sell grain, which means in tons - for the 99th and 2012th, for example, we sell machine tools, then piece by piece.

          Let's try. For example, they sold 1000 tons more grain, 1000 more machines, 1000 more barrels of oil. Is this good or bad? Does this indicate an even greater raw material dependence, or the opposite?
        2. Lopatov
          Lopatov 4 September 2013 11: 57 New
          0
          Speaking of machines in pieces. For example, last year 100 grinding and one modern processing centers were sold, this includes 10 grinding and 10 processing centers.
          If you approach this fact objectively, this is good, the share of high-tech products is increasing.
          If you approach from your position, machines in pieces, then vice versa is bad. 101 more than 20.
          1. Yarosvet
            Yarosvet 4 September 2013 12: 37 New
            +1
            Quote: Spade
            For example, they sold 1000 tons more grain, 1000 more machines, 1000 more barrels of oil. Is this good or bad? Does this indicate an even greater raw material dependence, or the opposite?
            With the sufficiency of the indicated goods in the domestic market, this is good.

            Quote: Spade
            If you approach from your position, machines in pieces, then vice versa is bad.
            belay ??? This is where did I indicate my position?