Military Review

Russia claims to have a significant share of the UBS world market already in the short term, the United States can prevent

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Russia claims to have a significant share of the UBS world market already in the short term, the United States can prevent

If the announced intentions of a number of traditional importers of Russian armaments for the purchase of reactive UBS will be realized, the Yak-130 already in the short term may take a leading position in the global market in this segment.


These plans can be hindered by the military aggression of the Western countries (USA, UK, France) against Syria, which is the largest customer of the Yak-130UBS (36 units, the order amount is about 550 million dollars) for the near term (now the Syrian air forces are training pilots on Czech aircraft L-39 "Albatross").

It is noteworthy that one of the key topics at the MAKS-2013 air show, according to the press service of Rosoboronexport, is the marketing campaign to promote the Yak-130UBS. According to the Russian special exporter, “Ukraine and Kazakhstan can become potential customers of the Yak-130. The issue of attracting local enterprises for servicing these aircraft is also being worked out with Kazakhstan partners. ”

Russia is entering the dynamically growing world market of reactive UBS very timely. The growth in global sales is due to the fact that many "poor" countries prefer UBS purchases over expensive multi-purpose fighters.

According to TSAMTO, in the past 4-year period (2009-2012), it was exported or produced under a license of at least 245 new aircraft in this category for $ 3,587 billion dollars.

In the forthcoming four-year period (2013-2016), the sales volume of the new reactive UBS will be 292 units. in the amount of 7,964 billion dollars in the case of meeting delivery schedules for current contracts, stated intentions and tenders.

In percentage terms, the increase in the supply of new UBS in this segment in 2013-2016. compared to 2009-2012. amount to 19,18% in quantitative terms and 122% - in value.

In 2009-2012 The average demand for new jet trainer aircraft on the international market was 61 units. in year. In 2013-2016 annual demand will increase to 73 units.

At the moment, according to TSAMTO, for the period 2009-2016. with UBS Yak-130 Russia with sales plans for about 80 machines worth 1,65 billion dollars, in terms of quantity, 3 occupies a place in the ranking of the largest exporters in this market segment.

In 2009-2012 16 Yak-130UBS (Algeria) was exported at a cost of about 200 million dollars. In 2013-2016 sales can be up to 64 units. in the amount of 1,45 billion dollars (here both deliveries under the concluded contracts, and declared intentions with an estimated delivery time in the period under review are taken into account). Moreover, of this volume, more than half (36 units) falls on Syria.

In the "offset" of Russia for the period 2013-2016. Included deliveries under contracts with Syria and Belarus. In the case of the development of the situation around Syria in the worst case scenario, a large contract with Syria on the Yak-130UBS (as in the MiG-29М / М2) may not take place. Moreover, losses in Russia under these two contracts will be very substantial. The presented calculation is made based on the fact that the contract with Syria on the Yak-130UBS will be implemented.

In addition, the intention to supply the Yak-130UBS for Bangladesh (the contract has not yet been concluded), and also Vietnam, may be taken into account (Hanoi should decide on purchases in the near future, since the fleet of Su-30MK2В fighters as part of the Vietnamese Air Force in the last years has grown considerably). In the short term, Belarus may receive an additional order for the supply of Yak-130UBS. In the medium term, Ukraine and Kazakhstan may become potential customers. Russia also has certain chances in Uruguay.

In a more distant future, the list of countries that may show interest in the purchase of Yak-130UBS (this does not mean that the countries listed below will necessarily become customers of Russian planes, but that you can work with these countries ), TSAMTO included Algeria (second party to replace L-39), Brazil, Venezuela (there will be tough competition with China), Vietnam (second party, if the first is ordered in the short term), Ghana, Jordan, Iran (if canceled embargo), Yemen (in the case of normalization of si uatsii in the country), Libya (in the case of normalization of the situation in the country and the lifting of the embargo), Malaysia, Sudan, Peru, Thailand.

This list does not include a number of promising countries where the Yak-130UBS have chances, but they are not included in the review, based on financial constraints of the budgets (a number of countries in Africa, Latin America and the Southeast Asian region), or because of other countries. That is, in general, the group of potential customers is wider than it is presented above.

Russia's competitors

China

As of the current time period 2009-2016. China ranks first in terms of the number of delivered and planned for delivery of reactive UBS (170 machines worth 1,85 billion dollars). In 2009-2012 It was exported and licensed for 146 aircraft worth 1,57 billion dollars. Order portfolio for the period 2013-2016 24 is still new machines in the amount of 280 million dollars. Such a significant difference in the two 4-year periods for China is a temporary phenomenon, which is associated with the transition to an active marketing policy to promote the new L-15 UBS on the world market.

UCS K-8 “Karakorum” is a rather outdated machine, therefore, Beijing associates further prospects for maintaining its position in the world market with its new development L-15.

During the period under review, the deliveries of U-C K-8 were sold to Bolivia, Venezuela, Egypt (licensed production), Zambia, Myanmar (both the delivery of finished machines and the organization of licensed production), Pakistan and Tanzania.

In November 2012, the company "AVIC Hundu" concluded with China National aviation import-export corporation (CATIC) contract for the supply of 12 UBS L-15 as part of the first export order. Officially, the first customer is scheduled to be announced this year.

Potential customers of L-15 consider, first of all, those countries that are operators of K-8 "Karakorum".

Preliminary negotiations on the supply of L-15 held with the Air Force of several African countries, including Namibia and the DRC. The Venezuelan government has also evaluated the possibility of acquiring L-15.

Comparison of potential customers of China and Russia suggests that in many countries Yak-130UBS will compete, first of all, with L-15.

United Kingdom

United Kingdom by quantitative parameter by period 2009-2016 with UBS "Hawk" of various versions takes second place (157 aircraft worth 4,284 billion dollars). In 2009-2012 73 machines worth 1,636 billion were exported. In 2013-2016 the projected sales of 84 aircraft will amount to $ 2,648 billion.

The main customers of UBS "Hawk" of various versions at the moment are Australia, India, Oman, Saudi Arabia, South Africa.

South Korea

A very strong competitor in the near future can become South Korea with Golden Eagle.

The first export contract with Indonesia for the supply of Golden Eagle UBS T-50 has been concluded (16 units). The next customers are expected to be the Philippines (12 units) and the UAE (20 units).

Other countries

Traditionally, Italy is a very strong competitor in this segment of the market; in some regional markets, the Czech Republic can compete.
Originator:
http://www.armstrade.org/
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  1. svp67
    svp67 31 August 2013 11: 14
    +1
    Honestly, I did not understand what a possible conflict in Syria could interfere with the sales of Yak130. Syria, what is the only buyer? Or was she going to fight on them?
    1. Roman Skomorokhov
      Roman Skomorokhov 31 August 2013 16: 04
      15
      Syria is not the only buyer. But if another massacre begins there, then it will not be time to buy aircraft. And if champions of Western democracies come to power, they will definitely buy anywhere, but not from Russia. It is all that simple.

      Quote: svp67
      Or was she going to fight on them?


      Not strong, but it seems that the training aircraft is being converted into a combat aircraft not in such a large amount of time, if necessary.
      1. S_mirnov
        S_mirnov 31 August 2013 16: 23
        +6
        Well, before, our aircraft industry was so busy with the production of combat aircraft that we purchased training aircraft in the Czech Republic. There was no time to do small things, there were not enough training aircraft.
        Now here you are, proud.
        Quote: Banshee
        Syria is not the only buyer.

        Before, there were many flight schools and UBS were in demand, after Serdyukov, flight schools were reduced and UBS was not needed much, not before. Syria is now a big buyer!
        1. Max
          Max 31 August 2013 16: 45
          +5
          The Yak-130 in the near term can take a leading position in the global market in this segment. The military aggression of Western countries (USA, Great Britain, France) against Syria, which is the largest customer of the Yak-130UBS (36 units, the order amount is about 550 million dollars), can interfere with these plans.
          What kind of buyer is Syria and what kind of leadership positions will we take? If to tell the truth, Syria pays 10% of the transaction amount, we usually write off the rest of the debt. So it does not look like selling equipment.
          1. Sergh
            Sergh 31 August 2013 17: 04
            +8
            Quote: Max
            What kind of buyer is Syria


            Yes, it’s just with Syria that you can bargain if you remain alive, this is at the expense of the port in Tartus and its rent and for how many years. That is, it is quite possible not to pay rent for fifty years !!! Well, there are many more options after the war. You, dear, just do not know what a bold piece it is. I gave you only one reasonable example, you will guess the rest yourself.
            1. 2vladim2
              2vladim2 31 August 2013 18: 03
              +1
              I liked your thought. Will we only have time to bargain?
          2. 2vladim2
            2vladim2 31 August 2013 17: 58
            +1
            It's more like a gift. So what? So how much we have already donated. And how many have written off. Here they say that by 2020 we will have a new aircraft that can replace 3 aircraft at once. If this money that we are writing off went to our defense, then already in 2015 we would have had such a technique!
          3. Ustin
            Ustin 1 September 2013 09: 58
            +1
            I am forced to disagree with you about Syria, there are no claims to pay for the Order.
      2. Su-9
        Su-9 1 September 2013 06: 45
        0
        Well, to be honest, the Syrians will buy the plane from which there will be more rollback to them personally. Here, in general, the commitment of the Syrian authorities to Russia or to the West plays little role.
        1. DimychDV
          DimychDV 2 September 2013 14: 49
          0
          "from which there will be more rollbacks for them personally"
          And you do not copy the current "rossiyansky" mentality to the Syrians !! Amer will not sell them equipment. Maybe they would prefer to take the equipment from the Chinese. They, the Syrians, do not need income in their own pockets now - but real political weight and the degree of potential protection that every coin will have in this deal.
      3. DimychDV
        DimychDV 2 September 2013 14: 44
        0
        I saw a story about this plane. I don’t remember the exact weight, but the external suspension of a combat variant of this aircraft may include bombs, NURSs, missiles, and guns. Moreover, the training in the battle is reformatted in a matter of hours. I think it is significantly superior in combat power and awnings, for example, MIG-21 ...
    2. Sergh
      Sergh 31 August 2013 16: 39
      +4
      Quote: svp67
      Or was she going to fight on them?

      Yes, you "sleep" for a long time dear! They are on (L-39) fighting, and not very bad. And on the Yak-130 it will be even better, this fishing line is just for bearded babies!

      1. Avenger711
        Avenger711 31 August 2013 16: 43
        -7
        Your naivety is amazing.
        1. Sergh
          Sergh 31 August 2013 17: 10
          +5
          Quote: Avenger711
          Your naivety amazes

          I beg your pardon! Who are you talking to now?
          1. Avenger711
            Avenger711 31 August 2013 20: 33
            -8
            With you, you have little idea of ​​the stupidity of TCBs like the L-39 in battle.
            1. Uncle Serozha
              Uncle Serozha 31 August 2013 21: 34
              +7
              Quote: Avenger711
              With you, you have little idea of ​​the stupidity of TCBs like the L-39 in battle.

              It's not about air combat, but about using the TCB as light attack aircraft with bombs, cannon containers, or NAR units (well, or NURS if the old one). In this capacity, the L-39 has been used more than once and continues to be used. In Soviet times, the first "assault" modification was the L-39ZA. The Czechs still sell them in such "mixed" configurations or modify "pure" TCBs at the request of the customer.
              Western TCB - the same Hawk is also used in this capacity in the armed forces of many countries.
              1. Sergh
                Sergh 1 September 2013 04: 58
                +5
                Quote: Avenger711
                you have little idea of ​​the degree of stupidity TCB like the L-39 in battle.

                Yes, you are my friend ... user! I clearly told you: "for the bearded Papuans", in addition showed in the video, there are a lot of examples around the world. For countries such as Syria, other African, South American and other small Kampuchea countries, this fishing rod is irreplaceable, because there is not enough money for rice and bananas. Fifthly, at Max-2013, it is not without reason that foreign delegations were interested in fighting the Yak-130.
                I show again:
                UBS L-39 Air Force of Abkhazia. August 2008 is preparing for a flight to Georgian positions in the Kador Gorge:



                So, I don’t need to imagine, I clearly showed you, but dig deeper into yourself, this is me at the expense of the spelling "UBS".
                1. Alex 241
                  Alex 241 1 September 2013 05: 10
                  +1
                  The first board, with the r-60, was obviously not prepared for work on the ground.
    3. Current 72
      Current 72 1 September 2013 01: 17
      +1
      As far as I remember, there were reports that the Yak-130, not only training, but also combat.
      1. DimychDV
        DimychDV 2 September 2013 14: 52
        0
        Look in the archives for either the Polygon or Zvezdochki - a film about the Yak-130. Everything is well told there, I just won’t remember, I won’t lie.
  2. andrei332809
    andrei332809 31 August 2013 15: 58
    +3
    politics and business are intertwined in such a tangle that you will not unravel. and the first, as usual, the Britons began to promote the business by force.
  3. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 31 August 2013 16: 49
    +5
    It is not easy to gain your niche in the market of combat training aircraft. But as can be seen from the article, the domestic Yak-130 persistently, in the competition, finds its customers. This is facilitated by its versatility, the ability to train pilots on modern fighters (5 generation). True, I want that there would be more such machines in the Russian Air Force.
  4. Corsair
    Corsair 1 September 2013 00: 15
    +2
    In view of the fact that the author "squeezed" the photo, I dare to supplement the material with the competitors of the Yak-130:

    L-15
    1. Corsair
      Corsair 1 September 2013 00: 19
      +2
      Quote: Corsair
      In view of the fact that the author "squeezed" the photo, I dare to supplement the material with the competitors of the Yak-130:


      T-50
      1. Corsair
        Corsair 1 September 2013 00: 24
        +2
        Quote: Corsair
        In view of the fact that the author "squeezed" the photo, I dare to supplement the material with the competitors of the Yak-130:


        Hawk
        1. Corsair
          Corsair 1 September 2013 00: 36
          +1
          Quote: Corsair
          In view of the fact that the author "squeezed" the photo, I dare to supplement the material with the competitors of the Yak-130:


          And not "included" in the article "relative" of the Yak-130 - Aermacchi M.346
          1. Alex 241
            Alex 241 1 September 2013 00: 40
            0
            Aircraft PZL-130 Orlik
            1. January
              January 1 September 2013 02: 05
              0
              It’s all the same from another sphere.
              1. Alex 241
                Alex 241 1 September 2013 02: 09
                +1
                Which other? Explain.
                1. Katsap Moskalev
                  Katsap Moskalev 1 September 2013 16: 20
                  +1
                  Orlik has a screw, but on the Yak-130 it is not yet installed.
          2. 0255
            0255 1 September 2013 10: 08
            +4
            it's good that the Italians remember that they created their UBS M.346 together with the Yakovlev Design Bureau, as evidenced by the inscription "Yak" on the keel)))
  5. January
    January 1 September 2013 02: 05
    +1
    It is very bad that they have grown a competitor from Italians with their own hands. Could not give something or something - a penny.
  6. 0255
    0255 1 September 2013 10: 06
    +2
    If the situation around Syria develops according to the worst-case scenario, a major contract with Syria on the Yak-130UBS (as well as on the MiG-29M / M2) may not take place. Moreover, the losses in Russia under these two contracts will be very significant. The presented calculation is made on the basis that the contract with Syria for the Yak-130UBS will be implemented.

    NATO can attack Syria at any moment, and even the Yak-130 cannot be delivered to them. Here the Syrians need to urgently supply the Su-35, the Su-34, the MiG-29M, the MiG-35, and the T-90 with the Armata, and the Mi-28, Mi-35 with the Ka-52, to boot. ... And then the Syrians are only helped by Iran, which itself has nothing to fend off its enemies.
    1. patsantre
      patsantre 1 September 2013 13: 00
      +2
      All of the above is a very complex equipment, and to operate it successfully, they would need years of training. They don’t have money for all this, and our industry still couldn’t deliver a sufficient amount of equipment in a short time, not to mention that this would be done to the detriment of our army. And in general, some of the above listed equipment does not yet exist in a ready-made form.
  7. K-36
    K-36 1 September 2013 11: 24
    +1
    Quote: 0255
    If the situation around Syria develops according to the worst-case scenario, a major contract with Syria on the Yak-130UBS (as well as on the MiG-29M / M2) may not take place. Moreover, the losses in Russia under these two contracts will be very significant. The presented calculation is made on the basis that the contract with Syria for the Yak-130UBS will be implemented.

    NATO can attack Syria at any moment, and even the Yak-130 cannot be delivered to them. Here the Syrians need to urgently supply the Su-35, the Su-34, the MiG-29M, the MiG-35, and the T-90 with the Armata, and the Mi-28, Mi-35 with the Ka-52, to boot. ... And then the Syrians are only helped by Iran, which itself has nothing to fend off its enemies.

    Do you think that such supplies can drastically change the defense capability of Syria? To use the arsenal of weapons you have listed seriously, highly professional staff needed. This is not counting the availability of calibration equipment, weapons depots for mounted missiles and bombs. And secondly, carefully read this (http://odnoy-strokoy.ru/?p=26602) in order to more realistic perceive the situation with the supply of arms to Syria. I will not hide that I myself am dejected by the current situation. However, the situation forces us to conduct a dialogue taking into account such filthy realities. Yours faithfully
  8. Sergey Medvedev
    Sergey Medvedev 1 September 2013 11: 38
    +4
    In the longer term, the list of countries that may be interested in the purchase of the Yak-130UBS

    Iran (in case of lifting the embargo),

    Or maybe spit on this embargo, since the states spit on the UN? Normal occasion.
  9. 0255
    0255 1 September 2013 13: 16
    +3
    Quote: K-36
    Quote: 0255
    If the situation around Syria develops according to the worst-case scenario, a major contract with Syria on the Yak-130UBS (as well as on the MiG-29M / M2) may not take place. Moreover, the losses in Russia under these two contracts will be very significant. The presented calculation is made on the basis that the contract with Syria for the Yak-130UBS will be implemented.

    NATO can attack Syria at any moment, and even the Yak-130 cannot be delivered to them. Here the Syrians need to urgently supply the Su-35, the Su-34, the MiG-29M, the MiG-35, and the T-90 with the Armata, and the Mi-28, Mi-35 with the Ka-52, to boot. ... And then the Syrians are only helped by Iran, which itself has nothing to fend off its enemies.

    Do you think that such supplies can drastically change the defense capability of Syria? To use the arsenal of weapons you have listed seriously, highly professional staff needed. This is not counting the availability of calibration equipment, weapons depots for mounted missiles and bombs. And secondly, carefully read this (http://odnoy-strokoy.ru/?p=26602) in order to more realistic perceive the situation with the supply of arms to Syria. I will not hide that I myself am dejected by the current situation. However, the situation forces us to conduct a dialogue taking into account such filthy realities. Yours faithfully

    It’s sad. The Americans probably destroyed half of Iraq in 1991 when Hussein invaded Kuwait, which is their ally. The USSR helped Vietnam, Syria in 1982, when in the second stage the Syrians still defeated Israel. Read:
    http://www.airbase.ru/hangar/planes/russia/mig/mig-23/livan-1.htm
    (Now the Israeli users of the Military Observation will worm me up).
    By the way, in 1982 the Syrians were less prepared for war than the Israelis. Type in the search engine "T-72 in Lebanon", "MiG-23 in Lebanon".
    It’s bad that Russia treats its allies like that. Then at least let the Chinese help them.
    1. DimychDV
      DimychDV 2 September 2013 15: 01
      0
      M-yeah ... In the absence of a political decision ... I agree, it’s all because of it ... Well, since there is no such decision, then don’t give FIGs for free. Enough, half the world under the Soviet power was already gifted, instead of providing their peasants with normal equipment. As a result, we simply did not stay with our peasants ...
  10. K-36
    K-36 1 September 2013 13: 48
    +3
    0255 SU It’s bad that Russia treats its allies like that
    But unblocking the situation with the transfer of supplies to Syria due to financial inconsistencies lies on the surface! One has only to recalculate the amount of the supply contract and recalculate this amount as payment for the lease of the Tartus Navy base. And this amount itself (allocated from the military budget for the lease of the Syrian base) should be transferred to enterprises supplying each of the types of weapons. And here is a question from the questions of Russian capitalism: Who will undertake this seemingly obvious measure ?? (after all, each of the candidates for "golden parachutes" has his own pocket, and this pocket is much closer to his body than even common sense) what Sincerely.
  11. Mercenary
    Mercenary 1 September 2013 14: 40
    0
    In general, nothing has changed. those who have not paid before are borrowed from us (then we will write off the debts) and whoever has the money, he chooses. all these contracts need to be valued for specific money.
  12. individual
    individual 1 September 2013 16: 24
    0
    Quote Mercenary:
    Etc.all these contracts need to be valued for specific money.
    And on the future binding of the contract to the maintenance of equipment and the supply of spare parts for the product.
  13. sergey158-29
    sergey158-29 1 September 2013 16: 43
    0
    Of course, the possibility of using weapons on UBS is a big plus when selling it good

    But for today there is little SELL, it is necessary to provide a full SERVICE for its maintenance / repair, and this has always been ignored ... wassat
  14. Akim
    Akim 2 September 2013 07: 59
    0
    Unfortunately, the purchase of the UBS Yak-130 by Ukraine has always smelled of a political odor. The fact that the Ukrainian general was given a ride on it and he appreciated the plane is right. The plane is really nice. But this story has been dragging on for 10 years, since the negotiations on its assembly at the Odessa ARP were underway. Then politics intervened. Then the Chinese came out with a similar proposal (talking about the assembly), and recently the Serbs offered to jointly revive the Super Galeb program. And this proposal has a good chance. It is, of course, worse than the Yak-130, even worse than the "Chinese", but it is almost one and a half times cheaper than the latter and allows training pilots for the 4,4+ generation fighters
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