Strategic thinking and organizational weapons
Opponents of Russia will increasingly use the org.weaponespecially against the country's top leadershipMan is a creature capable, at least sometimes, of consciously making decisions. If we take this statement as a basis, then we can put forward the following thesis.
There are decision makers (decision makers) who mainly operate on facts and assumptions. The decision-making process is mainly of a reactive nature, as, for example, in a street fight.
The second group of decision makers, for the most part, operates not only with facts, but with factors and systems of factors. Thinking here has a pronounced reflexive character, but the rank of reflection is limited. For example, the master of sports in chess can look nine forward in advance, and the grandmaster at eighteen. The difference is obvious.
Finally, the third group of persons makes decisions based on their own "pictures of the world" or "models of the world." Facts and factors make sense for such decision makers only within the framework of these pictures of the world. The decision-making process here is primarily of a creative-reflexive nature with a high reflexion rank, like those of grandmasters. Actually, it is for the decision maker of this group that strategic thinking is inherent: the ability to make decisions, analyzing and predicting the dynamics of competing strategies within the framework of mosaic “pictures of the world”.
The importance of strategic thinking is increasing substantially at present due to:
- a sharp increase in the amount of circulating information, the amount of targeted disinformation, etc.,
- increased uncertainty in almost all spheres of life: from economics to political metaphysics,
- the growth of crisis and conflict potential in almost all spheres of life, aggravation of economic, social, ethno-political, political tension in many regions of the world, including various regions of the Russian Federation,
- significant complication of foreign policy, diplomatic, social, information, etc. communications in the world, scaling up the use of smart power techniques and technologies, etc.,
- the gradual deployment of a spiral of preparation for a great global war.
I. Organization as a technology to improve the effectiveness of strategic thinking. One of the most effective ways to deal with the enemy (as a hostile system) is to (a) stimulate the strengthening of centrifugal processes within this system, and (b) contribute to the degradation of the key interactions of this system with its external environment. For this and used organizational weapons.
As applied to the sphere of interstate relations, the org.aruzhiye is a system of procedures that allows reorienting the policies of the enemy state to the required direction without the use of force. So Sun Zi defined the essence of these special technologies, which are an integral component of an effective strategy. At present, organizational weapons are actively used not only in the international arena, but also in corporate interaction, in complex conflicts of varying intensity, in the internal political struggle, in the collision of closed structures with each other, etc.
To be more specific, the org.aruzhiye is a system of informational, ideological, organizational, economic, psychological, political, etc., coordinated by purpose, place, time, and price. effects on the enemy, forcing him to reorient to goals that are unacceptable for survival.
The main tasks of the organizational weapon are to disorient the behavior of the adversary’s population, strengthen the centrifugal trends in its society, exacerbate contradictions in the system of its cultural codes, impose development programs unacceptable for its economy, form situational social groups that will require radical reformatting of ideological and political interests of the state, etc.
Even more specifically, “organizational weapon” is the creation and use of informal groups, nonstandard social and political structures, institutions, associations, parties, movements to solve force majeure, creative tasks in conditions of a high level of uncertainty.
In any case, the main prerequisite for the effective use of organizational weapons is the quality of perception, the depth of intellectual, political attention inherent in the strategic thinking of the respective decision maker. This is important for at least two reasons.
First, if this decision maker does not have strategic thinking, then it is better for him to forget about the organizational weapon. Otherwise, an attempt to apply it will bring much more negative consequences, disappointments and damage than positive results. "We wanted the best, but it turned out ..."
Secondly, we are talking about political attention and an adequate perception of such parameters of the “picture of the world” as the presence or absence of an opponent’s or opponent’s strategy, the quality of such a strategy and the presence of systemic contradictions in it, the specifics of the main internal systemic processes that destroy the stability of an enemy society, the nature of systemic interactions of the enemy with the environment, as a result of which the stability of this enemy system is reproduced or degrades, etc. For example, American strategic centers assess the internal situation in Russia as a cyclically developing systemic crisis. The highest Russian bureaucracy is doing the worst in this situation - it has no coordinated point of view about the systemic crisis at all.
Traditional bureaucratic (state and corporate) institutions proceed from the fact that they know better than anyone else how to solve any complex problem. Therefore, the issues of an adequate perception of the situation and the fixation of the ongoing changes most often remain on the periphery of these institutions.
Consequently, the effective use of organizational weapons requires a so-called. non-standard organizational structures. We are talking about institutions and mechanisms that are formed on the basis of the criteria for an effective solution of an increasingly threatening problem, precisely in a given place and in a given situation. Such organizational structures, first of all, should pay attention to the scale of dynamic entropy (uncertainty) in this situation.
High level of system uncertainty - state, corporation, conflict, etc. - characterized by the following indicators:
- the absence of a long-term strategy produced by the system control kernel,
- the emergence and operation of amplifying alternative centers of influence competing with the governing nucleus,
- strengthening of basic internal systemic contradictions, for example, between regional and economic subsystems, between ethno-national and political subsystems, between social and ideological subsystems, etc.,
- strengthening the impact of external forces actively supporting certain internal actors,
- a growing number of internal subsystems that refuse to follow the formal norms of interaction within a given society, etc.
The external environment with a high level of uncertainty is characterized by the following system components:
- complex and conflicting interaction of a large number of players (for example, the current Syrian conflict),
- the strategies implemented by these players often contradict each other,
- factors affecting the dynamics of the external environment cannot be controlled, and at the same time resources that can be used to influence are limited, etc.
Ii. The main subjects of org.aruzhiya. The use of org.oruzhiya primarily resorted to special services, secret or closed organizations, including criminal, special corporate structures, temporarily formed emergency groups created to resolve some critical situation.
One of the most powerful and influential such entities are drug cartels, and above all, the so-called. “Eurasian Drug System”, engaged in the production and sale of heroin in Eurasian markets.
The most effective form of org.oruzhiya, which uses the "Eurasian drug system" - targeted corruption of state structures of those countries through which the most important drug trafficking and where are the main markets. As a result, the actual integration of the political and security agencies of these countries into the drug system often happens. According to some estimates, a number of state institutions in Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have already become important components of this system. A whole range of special services, including two American ones, closely cooperate with this drug system.
Significant experience in the use of organizational weapons has been accumulated by various Masonic organizations. And here the most effective technology is to exercise large-scale control over personnel policy.
In 2012, a significant role in the election of Francois Hollande as President of France was played by one of the most influential masonic structures in the world - the Great East of France. And Hollande is not only the French president, but also one of the key leaders of the Socialist International. And the Socialist International is an essential component in the global structure of world Zionism.
As a result, influential representatives of this box became ministers of key ministries of the French government. The current Minister of the Interior, Manuel Valls, has been a member of the Masonic organization of the "Great East of France" since his student years. Justice Minister Christian Tobira belongs to the Great Women's Lodge of France. The Minister of Defense Jean-Yves Le Drian, as well as M. Valls, has long been a part of the same lodge, the Great East of France. The Minister for Overseas Territories, Victorin Lurel, has been in the same closed organization since the 1980s. Other authoritative masons in their midst also received theirs. Michel Sapin became the Minister of Labor, and the ministry of the budget was headed by Jerome Kauzak, Alain Vidaly was appointed in charge of the presidential administration ...
During the presidential campaign, V. Lurel accompanied another candidate of Hollande to a closed meeting of the “Great East of France”, where the future president made a very interesting speech, which was not intended for the general public. This Masonic Lodge, using its extensive network structure, which is particularly influential in the police and at the level of local municipalities, played a decisive role in the victory of F. Holland.
Another example of an effective subject of the org.aruzhiya is the semi-closed, but at the same time, the mass movement of Fethullah Gulen in Turkey. This movement played a key role in mass social protests in Turkey in the summer of 2013, directed against Prime Minister Recep Erdogan. Gülen's organization was able to mobilize over a hundred thousand of its supporters for a opposition rally on Taksim Square in Istanbul at a crucial moment for several hours. Again, over the past ten years, the Gulenists have dramatically increased their personnel presence at various levels of the Turkish police and gendarmerie.
One of the practical technologies for the use of org.aruzhiya by Western intelligence agencies is the use of official diplomatic groups sent to certain crisis regions to collect primary information and conduct a personnel assessment of the situation.
During the presidential elections in Tajikistan (2006) and the presidential and parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan (2005 and 2007) huge monitoring commissions visited the OSCE through these countries. If the official delegation from Russia consisted of 10 - 15 people, the OSCE delegation included several hundred people, including former high-ranking diplomats and military officers of the Western special services - acting and retired, etc. For the time of stay, for example, in Tajikistan, the delegation was divided into several dozen small groups, which went to all regions of the country without exception. Each group had a standard questionnaire with more than a hundred questions. Among these questions, special attention was paid to assessing the personnel situation in the field.
Iii. Org.aruzhie: information and psychological warfare. For strategic thinking, information warfare is the large-scale use of white, gray and black propaganda in order to create an artificially constructed picture of the world. This model is rigidly and totally imposed on the target audience in such a way as to radically change or completely suppress the competing picture of the world.
An example of the most extensive information war over the past decades has been the use of org.ruzhiya in this area against the Soviet Union in the 1986-91 years. Pre-formed or cardinally reformatted internal Soviet media were used as tools. At the same time, a sharp activation of targeted mass communications began: the formation and deployment of large-scale activities of human rights organizations, various cultural, intellectuals, etc. clubs and nationalist movements, more frequent rallies and strikes, etc. One of the important components of this information war was the purposeful work (in which American intelligence services actively participated) in spreading rumors, especially in the last two years of the Union. Although working with rumors is largely a component of psychological warfare.
Al-Jazeera TV channel conducted an active information war during the Egyptian events of the 2011 year. The political bond “the highest Qatari elite - the Muslim Brotherhood movement has existed for several decades. And Doha actively used this channel to support its ally as an organizational weapon. Speaking about the real promoters of this war, we must bear in mind that Qatar is a valuable partner of Washington in the Middle East. The country has an important US military base, the CIA's Middle Eastern residency and the regional branch of the Rand Corporation are located here.
Psychological warfare is an even more special phenomenon of the manifestation of organizational weapons. The directors and managers of a specific psychological warfare mainly use only gray and black propaganda, are engaged in the creation and dissemination of targeted false facts, rumors, and are mainly focused on direct discrediting of the enemy leaders, etc. The main task of psychological warfare is not to create an alternative picture of the world, but to destroy the coherent model of the world existing in the adversary’s society, to maximize disorganization of society, to create panic waves, to demoralize the adversary’s main institutions, to create complete distrust of the main groups of the population to the existing power.
Most often, psychological warfare is used as the regional or intra-national crisis increases, on the eve of direct military clashes, as well as during a war.
During the war in Afghanistan, the USSR Ministry of Defense, and in particular the GRU, launched a psychological war against the Mujahideen. Moscow formed a special group, which included experts on various aspects of psychological warfare. A special network of agents was created from among the local population, which monitored the mood of the population in various Afghan provinces, disseminated specially crafted information, etc. Black propaganda techniques, for example, the publication of newspapers, allegedly on behalf of various rebels, were actively used. Special campaigns of rumors, etc. were planned and launched.
On the eve of the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Americans used significant resources of their organizational weapons to support the military operation. Of course, the technology has become the core staffing. In the previous period, the American special services came into contact with a number of leading generals of the Saddam regime, many of whom were fairly easily recruited. By some estimates, the Pentagon spent about 25 million dollars on this. It was “special personnel work” that played an important role in the fact that the military operation to occupy the country had become so transient, and most of the Iraqi army actually did not resist the advancing American forces.
But against the background of the negative attitude of the international community to the planned invasion of Iraq, the US National Security Council planned and carried out on the eve of a direct force invasion of Iraq, a massive psychological war to maximize the discrediting of Saddam Hussein.
In this subversive action, the Americans focused on creating the image of the Iraqi leader as (a) the sponsor and promoter of international terrorism, and (b) the leader of the country, which already possesses nuclear weapons and is ready to use it at any moment. The US intelligence community has attracted some of its allies to conduct such a psychological war, used its high-ranking leaders (Powers) and Western partners in the UN, used the "dark" of some of their own diplomats. In general, the goal was achieved: Saddam Hussein, left without global support and being in international isolation, completely lost the psychological war.
After a few months, when it turned out that all the insinuations about the ousted Iraqi leader turned out to be cynical lies, the Americans did not even make excuses. "Winners are not judged!"
With the growth of a crisis, the techniques and technologies of information and psychological warfare are often combined.
Iv. Effective political strategies and org.aruzhie. For effective implementation of political strategies, especially in critical crisis periods, the use of creative technologies of organizational weapons is required.
First of all, a special model of a system-forming political structure that takes into account the requirements of a “specific place and specific time” is necessary. Stalin's strategic thinking formulated the metaphorical idea of using the model of the Sword-bearers to (a) fundamentally reformat the Bolshevik party in the context of the ongoing systemic crisis in the USSR and against the background of the inevitable World War II and at the same time (b) create a basic mechanism for implementing the “red project”.
The creative metaphor of Stalin originated from the historical experience of the Bolshevik Party, which before the revolution was a very specific structure that included such different components as a conspiracy political and ideological core, an underground organization, a legal parliamentary structure, etc. Stalin actually anticipated many of the later ideas of general systems theory regarding the creation of targeted complex multifunctional organizations, including the latest systems ideas about genetic design.
The main requirements for the model of a fundamentally new systemic organization as the “Order of the Sword” were as follows.
1. Multi-layered, layered, hierarchical organization of strictly mobilization type.
2. The special role of the political core in such an organization.
3. The kind of tentacles of such a special political organization in the mixed Soviet society were supposed to include trade unions, the Komsomol, people's control bodies, etc.
4. It was the Soviet "Order of the Sword," which was to formulate and implement national ideological tasks.
5. Such an organization should be characterized by personal and group sacrifice, the presence of the heroic Areopagus and the mechanism for the mass creation of heroes.
Today, once again, one of the main strategic tasks for the leadership of Russia is to form an organizational potential for the mobilization consolidation of society in order to counter the rapidly approaching wave of new dangerous risks and challenges. Within the framework of this task, it is of paramount importance to reform and unify the Russian political elite as soon as possible.
In fact, the tragedy of today's Russia is that there are no truly massive and effective mobilization structures operating in the long-term public interest in the country. This means that in the event of an acute emergency, a sociopolitical mechanism will not be able to withstand mass panic and massive social disorganization. For example, in the summer of 2010, the situation in Moscow and nearby regions was such that even a small use by the adversary of the corresponding organizational weapons could lead to an extremely dramatic internal crisis.
V. Orgruziye in the conditions of various crisis situations. In a sense, the life of a person, a corporation, or a country consists in a constant transition from one crisis to another. Another thing is whether this process is realized or not.
There are hundreds of classifications of crises and conflicts. However, in an applied sense, in any sphere of human life, it is important to form and further take into account a specific classifier of crisis situations, taking into account the two most significant parameters: the level of crisis intensity and the degree of controllability or uncontrollability of the crisis. This is first.
Secondly, strategic thinking requires the formation of a special crisis group in order to work out possible combinational-reflexive moves in the conditions of the growing crisis.
Thirdly, for each specific crisis (for example, the one that unfolds in the North Caucasus) a special model of coordination and interaction of various state institutions is required.
Fourthly, it is necessary to foresee the creative technologies of the org.aruzhiya to resolve systemic contradictions that will necessarily arise in the course of the development of the crisis.
Fifth, it is necessary to proceed in advance from the fact that a strategically minded adversary, whether in the corporate, political or international spheres, will most often proceed from the concept of “managing or pushing a crisis”. For example, special ethnic divisions of the military intelligence of Great Britain during the period of 2005-2005 were actively engaged in fomenting Sunni-Shiite contradictions in Iraq. In the Sunni areas of Baghdad, they blew up or set fire to Shiite mosques, and in Shiite areas - Sunni mosques.
The operational task was to prevent the creation of a unified Islamic front of resistance to Western occupation. However, another metastrategic goal was more important - to stimulate long-term and global intersecting confrontation in the Islamic world, to prevent Islamic consolidation on an anti-Western basis.
Finally, sixthly, planning anti-crisis strategies should proceed from the fact that long-term conflicts and crises cannot be resolved in principle in a short time.
Vi. Orgruzhie and problems of national security. The current org.aruzhiyu makes it possible to shift the emphasis of political confrontation from the international level to the intra-national.
For this, the following actions are most often used:
- creating conditions for external management of potential environmental disasters, reflexive nudging of inter-ethnic, inter-religious and inter-sectarian conflicts, targeted external stimulation of negative economic trends,
- the supply of inadequate information technologies that are capable of causing managerial chaos at a certain stage of the crisis,
- the introduction of unviable organizational forms and structures that produce fundamentally intractable conflict situations into the enemy’s society,
- the introduction of behavioral models that are contrary to national traditions, the attitude of this society, erasing historical the memory of society, causing gradual moral degradation.
Special technologies of the org.aruzhiya are used to form sluggish centrifugal processes aimed at the gradual erosion of the enemy's resources, forcing him to constantly spend money on eliminating the consequences of a significant number of systemic diseases that mutually pre-empt each other.
VII. Org.aruzhie and "color revolutions": the ideological factor. T.N. “Color revolutions” is the use of a system of special “non-violent” technologies for the controlled destabilization of a weak state, the creation of a “controlled chaos” zone in it with a view to its further spread to the whole society and the entire state. The key point is that the “color revolution” can only succeed in a country that is already in a systemic crisis.
The main goals of the use of organizational weapons in this operation are fairly standard: strengthening systemic contradictions, purposeful aggravation of crisis tendencies in vital areas of society, demoralization of law enforcement forces, attracting an active majority of society to their side, neutralizing and compromising the main control centers of the enemy.
A unique feature of the color revolution is that the org.arrangement allows you to translate (albeit temporarily) a systemic crisis into the form of “cardinal social self-organization of society”, which allows you to legitimately intervene outside forces. This is the essence of the phenomenon of "controlled chaos."
The practical implementation of this organization is as follows. First, it is necessary to evaluate and understand the structural features of the system, scheduled for controlled destruction. Then reveal the internal stresses existing in it. And, finally, to apply to this system the very "small effort that will cause significant destructive consequences."
The main source of such an effort is a systemic set of certain ideological and value ideas, which can be compared with a computer virus that reorganizes the conflict of internal system stresses in the direction desired by the organizing entity. The well-known Stephen Mann frankly writes about this: “With this ideological virus as our weapon, the United States will be able ... to choose, based on the national security strategy, which national goals need to be infected with ideologies of democratic pluralism and respect for individual human rights. With large-scale American advantages in communications and increasing opportunities for global movement, the virus will become self-replicating ... ”.
Viii. Necessary resources for the use of org.oruzhiya.
1. Frames The main prerequisite for the use of organizational weapons is the properly trained and trained new elite groups.
The American establishment invests heavily in the formation of foreign elite groups needed for its long-term strategy. These groups are specially trained in American universities. Relevant grants are distributed by both public (USAID) and private foundations (Fulbright, IREX), as part of a coordinated foreign policy strategy. Then potential leaders get the opportunity to continue cooperation with various specialized institutions in the development and promotion of their own specific national projects.
So, at the beginning of 90's. in Eastern and Central Europe, the “new elite” carried out democratic and market reforms, relying mainly on the American think tanks. In the 2000-ies, "new frames" began to implement the so-called. democratic projects in the post-Soviet space. Former Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus spent most of his life in the United States. And the current head of the Lithuanian state, Dalia Grybauskaite, participated in the American retraining program at Georgetown University Institute for International Economic Relations in 1991. M.Saakashvili, the President of Georgia, actively cooperated with the International Republican Institute, and G.Kasparov - with the American Center for Safe Policy, being a member of its Advisory Council on National Security.
2. "Moral capital". Supervised by American elite politicians receive a stable image of "democratic leaders", regardless of how their actions correspond to this concept. For example, the former, fully pro-American president of Colombia, Alvaro Uribe, was considered by Washington "one of the most democratic presidents of Latin America", despite the political assassinations he organized, questionable constitutional changes in his favor and electoral fraud. The same image advantages are enjoyed by supporters of Washington in other regions: from Saad Hariri in Lebanon to Saakashvili in Georgia and Karzai in Afghanistan.
3. "Ideological capital". The main brand products of the ideological mechanism of the global American corporate model are “market economy”, “democratic system”, “human rights”. The whole system, including intergovernmental organizations (OSCE, World Bank system, etc.) and international media, is working on the development of key ideological brands of the American model.
4. "Financial Capital". Washington is demonstrating its willingness to provide financial assistance and make investments in “properly developing countries”. Former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, who directly opposed Venezuela, was one of the main recipients of American financial assistance in Latin America. In the post-Soviet space, Saakashvili’s regime has been such a key beneficiary for a long time. Only to overcome the effects of military clashes 2008, the United States allocated more than a billion dollars to Tbilisi.
5. "Coalition potential". Modes, led by purposefully trained and trained personnel, Washington uses to implement its long-term strategic objectives. Thus, Colombia has become a stronghold for the implementation of the "Patriotic Plan", covering the Andean countries, as well as for lobbying for the project of the All-American Free Trade Area. An attempt was made to turn Ukraine and Georgia into bridgeheads for "color revolutions" in the post-Soviet space, as well as to create a sanitary cordon (GUAM, "Eastern Partnership") around Russia. By analogy, Cuba at one time was “Georgia” for the USSR, spreading a socialist wave throughout Latin America (Nicaragua, El Salvador).
6. The strategy of the Chinese organizational weapon is based on the key thesis - “it is profitable to deal with us”. At the same time, Beijing demonstrates maximum tolerance towards its partners on issues of their domestic and foreign policy.
With more than a hundred universities around the world — about thirty among them only in the United States — special Confucian centers have been established that create a cultural-language base for Chinese penetration. In Southeast Asia, Beijing directly proceeded to the formation of elite groups directly or indirectly integrated into the “Greater China” project. The current generation of politicians in power, for example, in Laos or Kampuchea, as well as their children, have received or are receiving education in China. The interests of their families are so connected with the PRC that they even spend their holidays in Chinese resorts.
Beijing relies on the long-term economic interests of power groups, including opposition ones, negotiating and effectively cooperating with various types of regimes. So, although as a result of the coup in Thailand, the influential Premier Thaksin Shinawatra (himself half Chinese) was ousted from power, but Beijing’s relations with Bangkok were not affected.
However, linking its influence with the economic aspects of cooperation harbors a number of restrictions for China.
When economic cooperation strikes the interests of the local population, the effectiveness of the Chinese organizational weapon drops significantly. A typical example is African agriculture. China invests in long-term lease or purchase of land for growing food. In particular, in the Congo, in agreement with the government, Beijing created the largest palm plantation in the world - 2,8 million, which led to the forced relocation of peasants living in these territories, corresponding conflicts and consolidation of the opposition on an anti-Chinese basis.
Another element in the formation of negative attitudes toward Beijing is the large-scale use of Chinese labor. For example, in Africa, more than a million Chinese work in agriculture alone.
The economic dominant of the international expansion of the PRC is at the same time the cause of significant risks for the Chinese organization. It is not by chance that the thesis about “yellow colonialism” is actively spreading in Africa.
Ix. Some conclusions and recommendations. Org.aruzhie - the traditional and necessary element of effective strategic thinking. Many methods and technologies of org.aruzhiya, under other names, have been used for centuries.
With the deepening global systemic crisis, the survival of nations and states depends primarily on the effectiveness of the strategies implemented and the effectiveness of strategic thinking.
The quality of strategic thinking is largely determined, firstly, by the ability to use new creative technologies and organizational management procedures, and, secondly, by the ability to counteract the adversary’s organizational weapons with the best in a political and economic sense.
As the spiral of global systemic confrontation unfolds, the significance of the methods, procedures, and technologies of the org.aruzhiya will only increase continuously. However, the problem is that in Russia there are no relevant personnel. Moreover, there is not even a clear understanding of the special importance of the training of high-class piece specialists in organizational weapons.
Russia's long-term survival, improving its systemic competitiveness depends on the quality of the strategic thinking of its elite.
Org.aruzie is an important and necessary tool for the mobilization consolidation of a multi-structured Russian society on the eve of serious global shocks in the medium term.
It is necessary to proceed from the fact that the opponents of the Russian Federation will increasingly use organizational weapons, especially against the country's top leadership.
Effective opposition to the enemy requires practical knowledge of new, innovative methodologies, technologies and methods of organizational weapons.
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