Military Review

Situation in Egypt: Russia may use the U.S. failure

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Situation in Egypt: Russia may use the U.S. failureCoup, which committed the Egyptian generals, displacing President Mursi, logically completed a large-scale sweep of the political field in Egypt from the president's supporters and drew a line under the rule of "Muslim brothers."


Egypt is a major country of the Arab world, and no temporary or permanent problems it does not override this immutable fact. Therefore already happened in Egypt will inevitably affect the entire region, but in fact, already the most active way and reflected.

The first thing to note - the Egyptian 2011 revolution of the year, with all its visible "color" signs and the participation of the West and, above all, the United States, had deeply internal reasons. The secular Arab regimes that relatively comfortably existed in the world divided by the Cold War, quite comfortably integrated into it and drew a resource from the confrontation of two global rivals. The collapse of the USSR could not help but reflect on them, but it was precisely secular regimes that could not develop new approaches in the new and rather incomprehensible to anyone world.

Deadlock, which also hit the Egyptians, and the suspension of development stagnation caused the rise of alternative projects, and for the Islamic world only alternative vesternezirovannym secular regimes could only be political Islam varying degrees of radicalism.

Causes of political crisis

Do not be a purely subjective factor - the three-year drought of the 2008-2010 of the year in the Middle East, aggravated by the drought in the Egyptian breadbasket - Russia - it is possible that the explosion and the arrival of the Arab spring would take place a year or two or three later. No one could have imagined that in 2010, Russia would be forced to ban grain exports, which sharply aggravated the problems in Egypt, which literally three months after the overlapping of the life-giving grain jet had flared.

Since no one expected, it is not surprising that the Egyptian nomenclature considered it good to sacrifice its permanent leader, just to maintain a presence in power. Let for time and especially nominal. Egypt is a classic Arab country where the army is more like a state corporation than a state institute. Until 40% of the Egyptian economy is controlled by the military, a significant part of the Egyptian civilian nomenclature came out of the army, and therefore it was the army that very quickly reacted to the threat of revolution and did everything to somehow reduce its heat and give the sacrifice to the slaughter.

It is worth noting that Mubarak himself made a series of mistakes that are unpardonable from the point of view of the nomenclature, and the main one is the problem of the successor. No problem in the fact that Mubarak was succeeded by his son Gamal, the Egyptian nobility did not see. But to raise his son Mubarak was obliged. And with this, Raisa was not well. Gamal had no authority, and most importantly - significantly spoiled relations with the army elite. The combination of these factors and led to the fact that the personal interests of the military and officials outweighed loyalty to Mubarak. He passed quickly and easily.

And then it began exactly what should have been after any revolution. The revolutionaries entered the line of disengagement, which has not ended. Under pressure from the United States, the Muslim Brotherhood came to nominal power, serving in the US plans to reformat the Middle East as a very serious tool. The military gave way, but, as expected, from the very beginning they were going to return to power. Even with the risk of complicating relations with the West. After the revolution with respect to the United States, the Egyptian nomenclature did not have any illusions - the swiftness with which the former ally surrendered it in the name of new “friends” showed the military better than any words that they could be written off just as quickly and without delay.

The military did not harbor any illusions about the "moderate" "Muslim Brotherhood." They saw perfectly well what the "moderate" Islamists in Turkey are doing with the army, and their fears for the Turkish generals lastingly justified their life terms. The Egyptian military saw very well what is the territory under the control of the “Muslim brothers” of Hamas in Gaza, which has become a cloaca and an abscess of the entire region. The main thing is that the army rightly feared for its property, which the “brothers” could requisition in the name of saving the economy, for they offered nothing more constructive either before or after the election of Mursi.

Moreover, all the steps Mursi in the economy only strengthened the military in the thought that their term was already close. The surrender of the territories to Qatar and Sudan, support for the incomprehensible war in Syria inevitably led Egypt and its former nomenclature to a final collapse, followed by the fragmentation of the country, mass exodus, civil war and wars with neighbors. Coup at any cost was the last way for the army - and inevitable.

The military's role in the conflict

Already at the beginning of the year, all signs of an impending coup appeared, and in May they were formalized through the sudden emergence of the Tamarod movement, which launched the process of preparing for it in real field conditions.

At the same time, the former nomenklatura did exactly what it was supposed to do in its situation — it sabotaged the decisions of the new government at all levels.

The helplessness of the “brothers” in curbing sabotage and their inability to cope with management and economic problems played into the hands of the military. The “brothers” managed to rebuild against themselves even their Salafi allies, who over the past months have taken a principled and stressed neutral position with regard to all military actions. The military made a bet on Saudi Arabia, which is also in line for surrender from the United States, and is well aware of this. The instinct of self-preservation created an amazing alliance between the secular army of Egypt, the Salafis and the Wahhabi monarchy of the Gulf.

Having made a coup, the military placed themselves in an extremely rigid decision-making framework, which they carried out to the nearest comma. The tasks of the army are to sweep away the “Muslim brothers”, to ensure security, to hold elections for a new civil administration, and to back up its actions in carrying out difficult economic reforms with its power source.

The military has decided the first task, the second is already being solved, and in the spring of 2014, they will begin to solve the third. The financial support of the Arabian monarchies will help them get through this difficult stage. The states, having put on the "Muslim brothers", have lost all other allies - and now they are forced to hold on to them to the end.

That is why the generals slow down with the prohibition of the movement of "brothers", leaving them a loophole - stop resistance, and you will be admitted to the elections. At the same time, the military are well aware that for the “brothers” to agree to this proposal means to agree with the coup. This will unambiguously lead to a split of the movement into compromisers and irreconcilables, which will weaken them and affect the outcome of the elections. The disagreement of the “brothers” will allow the army to simply ban them in the long run and exclude them from the electoral process.

In a sense, this conflict of interest allows us to explain the underlined neutrality of Russia in the Egyptian events. On the one hand, a convenient reason - we do not interfere in internal affairs, let the Egyptians solve their problems themselves. On the other hand, Russia must use the obvious failure of the United States and enter Egypt, occupying free niches. At the same time, even at the risk of causing even greater US dissatisfaction than in the case of Snowden. But Egypt is not Snowden. Here we can and must fight, albeit at the cost of complicating relations. Only this should be done carefully, without haste, but also not late in decisions.
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13 comments
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  1. Drednout
    Drednout 22 August 2013 15: 14 New
    +9
    To begin with, to drive a small squadron into the Red Sea, do not worry, the sailors will sunbathe, it’s calmer for tourists. So, for every fireman. But it is never harmful to defeat Saudi Arabia.
  2. lilit.193
    lilit.193 22 August 2013 15: 18 New
    +5
    Egyptian generals are not dyraki. They realized that with such a president as Mursi you won’t cook porridge normal for the country, and he was deposed. And Russia, of course, needs to take advantage of this situation in order to again indicate its presence in the region. Just as it was a long time ago. And the fact that someone there doesn’t like it there is his problem.
  3. serge-68-68
    serge-68-68 22 August 2013 15: 19 New
    +2
    There is a small nuance: the connection of the "Muslim brothers" with the United States is found only in the head of the author of the article, but the connection of the Egyptian army with the United States - since the time of Sadat and has a completely material expression. Radical Islam in Egypt has been defeated (for now). It will affect the actions of radical Islamists throughout the Arab East and the Islamic world. However, I would not talk about the failure of the United States in Egypt. They were not so involved in this adventure with the "BM". No "free niches" have emerged for Russia. In any case, those that would cost $ 12 billion.
    1. a52333
      a52333 22 August 2013 15: 55 New
      +3
      the connection of "Muslim brothers" with the United States is found only in the head of the author of the article
      A bunch of Qatar Muslim Brothers? Do you think Qatar independently, without demand, did such a thing? They’ll quickly put in a corner.
    2. avt
      avt 22 August 2013 16: 54 New
      +1
      Quote: serge-68-68
      There is a small nuance: the connection of the "Muslim brothers" with the United States is found only in the head of the author of the article, but the connection of the Egyptian army with the United States - since the time of Sadat and has a completely material expression.

      You are wrong, these are two boots of one Amer’s pair, as ordered by Mubarak’s generals - remember how long he sat at the beginning of the tahrir of the head of the General Staff in USA, and then they gave the go-ahead. The main thing is that there is no stabilization in the situation either one way or the other. It fits into the Amer’s strategy in the Levant, voiced by Condoleezza Rice.
      Quote: a52333
      A bunch of Qatar Muslim Brothers? Do you think Qatar independently, without demand, did such a thing? They’ll quickly put in a corner.

      good This is generally a project of YUSav, where they sit with the regional command as in the Texas region.
      1. a52333
        a52333 22 August 2013 17: 56 New
        0
        This is generally a project of YUSav, where they sit with the regional command as in the Texas region.
        So yes, but there is an opinion that they simply do not have enough strength, no money, no brains to keep up with everything. 2 moment: removed the Qatari sheikh. are the events related?
        1. avt
          avt 23 August 2013 11: 15 New
          0
          Quote: a52333
          So yes, but there is an opinion that they simply do not have enough strength, no money, no brains to keep up with everything. 2 moment: removed the Qatari sheikh. are the events related?

          We changed the cuckoo for hawks, this only confirms that Qatar, as a state, is a project of amers and, despite all this Islamic husk, they will do what they want there.
  4. Des10
    Des10 22 August 2013 15: 21 New
    +1
    The interest of the military is understandable - to maintain influence and what has been acquired, but whether they understand - there is no turning back, the radical brothers must be destroyed (they are armed !!!). And this is a civil war.
  5. 6 sunrise 9
    6 sunrise 9 22 August 2013 15: 53 New
    +3
    Yes, there will be no influence in the Russian Federation in Egypt as in Soviet times. The USA there didn’t lose much authority there, so that if it’s not going to be blamed on the military because they removed Mursi from power, then everything will be fine.
    Egypt, by the way, was once not secular ... there was a huge discrimination of Christians under Mubarak, another thing is that when Muslim brothers they will be slaughtered like rams in squares.
  6. a52333
    a52333 22 August 2013 16: 00 New
    +6
    Yes, there will be no influence in the Russian Federation in Egypt as in Soviet times.
    Let's think together about the geostrategic position of Egypt. Suez Canal. This is better than a valve for oil and gas! This game is worth the candle.
    1. 6 sunrise 9
      6 sunrise 9 22 August 2013 16: 35 New
      +1
      I do not argue, it is worth "testing the ground for cooperation" there.
      1. a52333
        a52333 22 August 2013 16: 40 New
        +3
        Here again, and it seems that they should be supported, on the other hand, their presidents change "partners" at the rate of change of partners of the station "girl".
        1. 6 sunrise 9
          6 sunrise 9 22 August 2013 16: 58 New
          +1
          With all due respect, they will not be our allies. For this, they have no interests, the only allies of the Russian Federation in the BV are Iran and Syria, and both states are unfortunately allies to us.
  7. Vtel
    Vtel 22 August 2013 16: 19 New
    +2
    Under pressure from the United States, the Muslim Brotherhood came to nominal power and served as a very serious tool in US plans to reformat the Middle East.


    This is the key phrase that the Jews of the United States, Israel and the Geyvropy use radical Islamists as a tool to establish their power in the East, but at the right moment they will "soak" them or surrender them, but that is unaware, they have money, not Islamic the faith with which they always hide behind - jihad, however. Egypt has always dominated these advocates of tolerant democracy and again for money, it is enough to recall the 6-day war with Israel, where they threw the Syrians. Mona negotiate - they have resorts, but the rest is open to ears.
  8. Sergey Medvedev
    Sergey Medvedev 22 August 2013 16: 44 New
    +3
    Of course, you need to observe your interest in this country. Just not like in Soviet times - weapons at half price or for free. Yes, and the Suez Canal - a serious thing.
  9. patriot2
    patriot2 22 August 2013 17: 33 New
    0
    Or maybe this is a trap for Russia? It is necessary to think, and then be sure to decide: "a holy place is never empty."
    1. faraon
      faraon 22 August 2013 18: 19 New
      +2
      Russia’s entry into Egypt, it’s a US-made stall. What’s leading to this is a new round of the Cold War between Russia and the USA. This is not necessary for Russia. The states are trying to draw Russia into this adventure in order to write off their debts. And to untwist Russia with new investments Incomprehensible Middle Eastern politics. Russia, fulfilling its international duty, will begin to restore the economy, the armed forces of Egypt, and this costs the enormous money which is so lacking for Russia itself. Well, such a America will give 10 tons of green paper and Egypt will run like a faithful dog after it. So Russia has nothing to do with it, let alone invest in material and human resources. And I think that it has learned the lessons of friendship with Egypt. America has started this whole booth even if it does not dissipate.