Military Review

Game of Thrones in Uzbek: it will start soon

72

Uzbekistan is facing big changes. The basis of stability, the guarantor of the same unwritten agreement - Islam Karimov - is old and will inevitably leave his post. He still has not appointed a clear successor, and therefore the beginning of an open fight for power between the clans is only a matter of time. Let's try to predict it.


Key actors of the coming civil strife

The basis of the division of Uzbekistan into clans is a territorial feature, and then a national one. This allows clans to be sufficiently flexible and, if necessary, to accept members of other nationalities into their ranks, provided that the newly adopted share the values ​​and goals of the clan.

In total, according to various estimates, from five to ten clans arose in Uzbekistan on the ruins of the Kokand, Khiva and Bukhara khanates. The strongest are the Tashkent and Samarkand clans, whose representatives occupy key posts in the republic. The positions of Dzhizakians, Bukharians, Khorezmians, Kashkadaryans, Surkhandaryans and Karakalpaks look weaker. Weak clans have lost their independence and serve the interests of larger ones. But even large clans are heterogeneous, as they consist of different groups.

Separately, it should be said about the Fergana clan. It originates from the descendants of the rulers of the Kokand Khanate, and therefore its representatives are very ambitious and were the most irreconcilable opponents of Islam Karimov. The Andijan unrest of 2005 of the year was supported not only by Western emissaries from NGOs, but also by Ferghana elites, for which they had to pay dearly. Now the Ferghana clan is defeated and divided between Tashkent and Samarkand, but after Karimov’s departure, he may well try to regain independence.

The Tashkent and Samarkand clans fought a long war against each other for the right to exert exceptional influence on the president. The unequivocal winner as a result of the war did not come to light. However, given the starting positions of the parties, the Tashkent people rather won. On the other hand, having learned from bitter experience, Karimov will not allow too much to reduce the influence of the Samarkand clan, to which he formally belongs.

The basis of the welfare of the Samarkand clan is Uzbekistan’s agriculture, which consistently generates export earnings. It is rumored that the owner of the Fergana Valley is a relative of Islam Karimov - Akbar Abdullayev, who controls the order of 70% of the economy of the Fergana region of Uzbekistan.

Representatives of the Tashkent clan gradually strengthened their position in the government and financial sector of the country. So, Rustam Azimov at the beginning of 90-s became the chairman of the newly created Uzbek Innovation Bank "Ipak Yuli". At the moment, Azimov is the deputy prime minister, but he continues to maintain control over the bank through his man, Rustambek Rakhimbekov.

In Uzbekistan, Rustam Azimov, who graduated from a magistracy at Oxford, is positioned as a pro-Western politician with solid ties with banks in the West and Asia. He is also called the most acceptable presidential candidate of Uzbekistan for the United States.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the National Security Service, which have substantial resources and, most importantly, repressive powers, are trying to carry out their policies in Uzbekistan. However, the security forces are associated with clans and inevitably participate in the protection of their interests. Traditionally, the Samarkand clan had influence on the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and Tashkent - on the National Security Service.

Thus, over the years of independence, the actually forced unification of Tashkent and Samarkand people into a single “party of power” took place. However, this unity is kept on an extremely fragile basis: understanding that while Karimov is in power, a thin world is better than a good quarrel.

In turn, Karimov, despite his power, is forced to be an arbiter not only between clans, but also to regularly carry out personnel movements among representatives of his (Samarkand) clan. In order not to provide opportunities for strengthening competitors who want to remove Islam Abduganievich from power.

Pretenders to the throne

Thus, the key contenders for gaining power in the republic are the Tashkent and Samarkand clans, who divided the defeated representatives of the Fergana Valley among themselves.

Tashkent citizens are the current Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyayev and Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov. Despite belonging to the same clan, Mirziyayev and Asimov compete with each other. However, in the press, Rustam Azimov is most often mentioned as a candidate for Karimov’s successor.

Karimov has no heirs, but he has two daughters: Gulnara and Lola. Lola, the youngest daughter in the family, has no ambitions, and therefore, in the division of power, most likely, she will not take part. And he will concentrate on protecting the interests of his husband, the oligarch Timur Tillyayev.

Otherwise, Gulnara behaves. The first problem of Gulnara, preventing her from being elected as head of state, is gender. The second is isolation from the Uzbek realities: after all, Karimova spent most of her life traveling to foreign countries. The third is a very absurd character, which does not contribute to an increase in its rating among the population. However, the key obstacle for Gulnara on the way to the presidential chair is the lack of allies among high-ranking officials.

Recently, Karimov-elder has often criticized pro-Western Azimov, however, she also gets Gulnara herself, who had recently been deprived of diplomatic immunity and forced to defend herself on the basis of corruption.

However, Karimov himself is in no hurry to name specific personalities, which is understandable: having elected a successor, the head of the republic will speed up the political processes in Uzbekistan several times and create additional threats for his clan.

conclusions

The coming years will be key for Uzbekistan. The future of the republic will depend on the ability of the clans to come to an agreement among themselves again: keeping the system of checks and balances created by Karimov, or creating a new one.

It is unlikely that Gulnara Karimova will be able to take over the reins in her hands: she is too incompetent in matters of government, although she is most acceptable to her father.

The current prime minister of the republic, Shavkat Mirziyayev, has high chances to take the chair of Karimov, but compared to Rustam Azimov, his position looks weaker.

The intrigue with respect to the Uzbek security officials remains: will they prefer to side with the clans or will they try to dictate their terms to the clans? The struggle of the Interior Ministry and the National Security Service for influence on Karimov largely repeated the struggle of the Uzbek clans. However, taking into account some moments of confrontation of the security forces, this option cannot be completely discarded.

The most negative variant of the development of clan enmity is “Afghanization” of Uzbekistan, however, the probability of this is still low. There is no pro-Western opposition in Uzbekistan, opposition politicians expelled to foreign countries have no support from the population, as well as financial resources to fight for power. And therefore do not pose a serious threat.

I believe that next year the key events on which the future of Central Asia will depend, will be the withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan and the change of ruling elites in Uzbekistan. And if the withdrawal of NATO will inevitably provoke an increase in instability, then the outcome of the clan confrontation is extremely difficult to predict.
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72 comments
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  1. makst83
    makst83 22 August 2013 11: 31 New
    +4
    I understand that there is no pro-Russian candidate in Uzbekistan !? But in Russia there are 2 million guest workers (citizens) of Uzbekistan, according to conservative estimates, so that we can play the Uzbek card with any receiver of I. Karimov (using them, migrants, for our own purposes)!
    1. Yeraz
      Yeraz 22 August 2013 15: 13 New
      +7
      Quote: makst83
      But in Russia there are 2 million guest workers (citizens) of Uzbekistan, according to conservative estimates, so that we can play the Uzbek card with any receiver of I. Karimov (using them, migrants, for our own purposes)!

      It seems to you so. As recent events have shown, migrants are not a strong lever, they quietly left the CSTO, other organizations of the Russian Federation ignore it, so the topic of migrants is exaggerated.
      1. Ruslan67
        Ruslan67 22 August 2013 15: 36 New
        12
        Quote: Yeraz
        mirants are not a strong lever,

        While they are on the territory of Russia they will come home will turn from a lever into a tractor spring wassat
      2. avt
        avt 22 August 2013 16: 17 New
        +5
        Quote: Yeraz
        It seems to you so. As recent events have shown, migrants are not a strong lever, they quietly left the CSTO, other organizations of the Russian Federation ignore it, so the topic of migrants is exaggerated.

        request So far they haven’t been dealing with them, but with regards to the exit, as well as the entrance, here, by and large, Russia is neither hot nor cold, there are no bases there. And the structure itself is spineless and does not oblige anyone except us, any member, at any moment, recalls its multi-vector nature and quietly, or how Karimov merges.
      3. makst83
        makst83 22 August 2013 16: 42 New
        0
        put everyone on the train and send them home! A colossal social explosion is ensured, since there is no work at home! But they don’t need neighbors either ... Gaster! The same can be said about all the residents of Central Asia who are on our payroll!
        1. smersh70
          smersh70 22 August 2013 17: 28 New
          -2
          Quote: makst83
          put everyone on the train and send them home! BIG social burst ensured



          at one time Putin put all the Georgians in the IL-76 and sent them home ... so what .. Saakashvili returned the board to Moscow ...... fellow and then they were given a Schengen visa and now even in Iceland, Georgians make money ....... a holy place does not happen empty ..... hi
          1. makst83
            makst83 22 August 2013 17: 29 New
            +4
            Yes, even if they send loot from Australia, if only not from us!
          2. don.kryyuger
            don.kryyuger 22 August 2013 20: 50 New
            +2
            However, they prefer to make money in Russia, rather than in Azerbaijan or Iceland, however, like you. They are 1,5 million here, and you are no less.
      4. grafrozow
        grafrozow 22 August 2013 19: 41 New
        +2
        Quote: Yeraz
        so that the topic of migrants is exaggerated.
        I do not agree, that's when they can’t send translations home. There will be no residential basements for them, and then the problem will light up. Do you really need a French version?
      5. Siberian German
        Siberian German 22 August 2013 21: 05 New
        +2
        I completely agree - it’s zilch our top does not use this trump card and why it is not clear
    2. smersh70
      smersh70 22 August 2013 17: 26 New
      -2
      Quote: makst83
      I understand that there is no pro-Russian candidate in Uzbekistan !? But in Russia there are 2 million guest workers (citizens) of Uzbekistan,



      and that)))) in Germany, too, 2 million Turks and Germans are not worried about the arrival of the pro-German Prime Minister of Turkey fellow .... the main thing is fair elections .... democracy ...... cooperation with all countries on a mutually beneficial basis .... strengthening borders with Afghanistan .... control of drug trafficking ......
      and you think like a real imperialist .. hi
      1. makst83
        makst83 22 August 2013 17: 36 New
        +2
        I am not talking about that! I have an opinion on this that when they are sent to sunny Uzbekistan, they will give him, Karimov, the May 2005 of the year (events in Andijan, if you do not remember)!
        1. smersh70
          smersh70 22 August 2013 17: 50 New
          0
          Quote: makst83
          recall May 2005 (events in Andijan, if you do not remember)!



          there just the Wahabbits were to blame .... so in this matter everyone should be together .... and not to remember ...... hi
          1. makst83
            makst83 22 August 2013 18: 24 New
            +1
            and if you add to them 2 lama of unemployed men !? PPC Islam Abduganievich and any receiver! Thus, friendship with Russia should not be neglected, and any appointee on his post must know this!
            That's what I'm dear smersh70 about!
            1. alone
              alone 23 August 2013 17: 38 New
              0
              Do you think PPC will be? why did this PPC not come when these 2 million were unemployed and were forced to flood into Russia? could immediately throw Karimov and all.
      2. avt
        avt 22 August 2013 19: 37 New
        +3
        Quote: smersh70
        and that)))) in Germany, too, 2 million Turks and Germans are not worried about the arrival of the pro-German Prime Minister of Turkey

        And no one in Turkey does not open his mouth at German investment in the tourism industry, so they don’t jerk and keep in a strict collar - they don’t accept the EU.
        Quote: smersh70
        .... the main thing is fair elections .... democracy ...... cooperation with all countries on a mutually beneficial basis .... strengthening borders with Afghanistan .... control of drug trafficking ......

        laughing laughing drug trafficking control especially liked. Of course - such a loot with minimal investment.
        Quote: smersh70
        and you think like a real imperialist ..

        And what? Tithing to help former republics? Her - died so died. Today we have capitalism in the yard, with the USSR and socialism, as well as with community — the Soviet people were unitedly killed. Well, in the current state, as practice shows, the most effective approach is an American, clean business without snot, slightly covered by chatter about fair elections, democracy and other tolerance. Moreover, all the natives who are newly converted to democracy are pretty good at all of this , over in Ukraine - Yushchenko was chosen democratically until the blue and the desired result for the Americans, despite the indigenous, independent constitution, and nothing supporters of the Geyvrop choice were diminished. Well, those who disagree have a choice - for example, shoot themselves in the head with two shots, like the Minister of Internal Affairs. Quite a democratic euthanasia. And most importantly, no one calls imperialists, on the contrary, they are completely satisfied with their own choice. laughing And they set us up as an example. So why then should we refuse this?
    3. KazaK Bo
      KazaK Bo 22 August 2013 18: 02 New
      +1
      Quote: makst83
      I understand that there is no pro-Russian candidate in Uzbekistan !?

      It's time ... it's time to think about it. This article is not just ... for information, there’s nothing to say ... It’s obvious that Karimov’s health is completely limping ... or KAMAZ has already been started for an “accidental” accident .... We are waiting, sir! Thanks for the warning. We will prepare the receiver!
      the beginning of an open power struggle between clans is only a matter of time

      The most terrible and merciless is the clan war ... especially in the south in Wed. Of Asia. The massacre will be to the end. How many simple and intoxicated people will die for the "happiness" of someone to be FIRST !!! It really will be a grief !!!
      Is it possible to “miss” again and not be able to intercept the thread of events ... thereby preventing the massacre?
    4. Ruslan_F38
      Ruslan_F38 22 August 2013 18: 28 New
      +3
      They were part of the USSR — they were a republic, the standard of living was less, and now they are slowly but surely slipping to the level of Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Apparently soon there will be lawlessness and anarchy in Somalia.
    5. Ali-gurg
      Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 24 New
      -1
      Hmm ... how much has been written (and as a whole merging from empty to empty) and there are even more kamens and one more beautiful than the other ... So dear comrades there will be no strife or blood or anything else badherta ... Everything will fall into place and Uzbekistan will continue to live and develop, and the difficult days of the formation of an independent state will pass ...
  2. serjant4
    serjant4 22 August 2013 15: 19 New
    -13
    The battle of monkeys is coming :)
    1. UzRus
      UzRus 22 August 2013 15: 38 New
      +5
      Wow how witty! fool
      1. a52333
        a52333 22 August 2013 16: 08 New
        +4
        Hello Alexander. hi But, in general, knowing how everything is happening in Uzbekistan, you can wait for anything. + Amerikosy will add oil - this doesn’t even go to grandmas. No matter what happens to you, such as the "Melon Revolution"
    2. Ali-gurg
      Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 38 New
      -2
      Quote: serjant4
      The battle of monkeys is coming :)

      Well, yes, leave you an anthropoid banana? wink
  3. Essenger
    Essenger 22 August 2013 15: 53 New
    13
    Is it possible that an article about Uzbeks appeared in VO, otherwise we are already accustomed to Kazakhs, Azerbaijanis and Ukrainians)))
    1. xetai9977
      xetai9977 22 August 2013 16: 05 New
      +6
      Do not say Miras! Is there really interest in other countries of the former Union?
      1. Essenger
        Essenger 22 August 2013 16: 46 New
        +4
        Quote: xetai9977
        Do not say Miras! Is there really interest in other countries of the former Union?

        Judging by this, yes.
    2. Apollo
      Apollo 22 August 2013 16: 09 New
      +5
      Quote: Essenger
      Is it possible that an article about Uzbeks appeared in VO, otherwise we are already accustomed to Kazakhs, Azerbaijanis and Ukrainians)))



      and Armenians forgot about them wassat They may be offended, not good.
      1. Essenger
        Essenger 22 August 2013 16: 43 New
        +8
        Quote: Apollon
        Quote: Essenger
        Is it possible that an article about Uzbeks appeared in VO, otherwise we are already accustomed to Kazakhs, Azerbaijanis and Ukrainians)))


        and Armenians forgot about them wassat They may be offended, not good.


        Hello Apollo. No, I haven’t forgotten. It's just that they mostly write positively about Armenians and Belarusians, but we are still in the negative)))
        1. smersh70
          smersh70 22 August 2013 17: 35 New
          +2
          Quote: Essenger
          but we are still in the negative)))



          right now Lopatov with EDB56 will do ... and Garia too ... they will give you answers. wassat .just at work so far ........ laughing

          and in the evening until I get home, the article will be removed from here fellow
          1. Essenger
            Essenger 22 August 2013 18: 05 New
            +6
            Quote: smersh70
            right now Lopatov with EDB56 will do ... and Garia too ... they will give you answers.


            Well, for two days we’ve been fighting with ed65b on another branch))) If you're interested, see the article about the Kazakh-Russian alliance.
  4. savoj
    savoj 22 August 2013 16: 00 New
    -6
    The most interesting thing is that the Russians feel themselves half a meter above all the others ..... this will destroy them.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 22 August 2013 16: 06 New
      +5
      Quote: savoj
      The most interesting thing is that the Russians feel themselves half a meter above all the others ..... this will destroy them.

      Yes, we have always been like that and live nothing and still manage to save others. By the way, you yourself are Russian!
      1. avt
        avt 22 August 2013 16: 20 New
        +4
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Yes, we have always been like that and live nothing and still manage to save others. By the way, you yourself are Russian!

        Nah, en already euoropeets. Where are we and the Merry Fellows. laughing
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 22 August 2013 16: 39 New
          +5
          Quote: avt
          By the way, you yourself are Russian!

          This is a slap for him lol
          Quote: avt
          Nah, yeah already euoropeets

          But this is praise for him laughing
          1. Ruslan67
            Ruslan67 22 August 2013 16: 42 New
            +6
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            But this is praise for him

            Purely European-gayshushka Tolerrastenky tongue
    2. Allegedly
      Allegedly 22 August 2013 16: 10 New
      11
      Russian barbarians broke into villages, villages and camps, leaving behind only libraries, theaters and cities.
    3. Ruslan67
      Ruslan67 22 August 2013 16: 13 New
      +8
      Quote: savoj
      Russians feel half a meter higher than everyone else ..

      And we have longer and thicker fellow and we shove this miracle to the places necessary for the homeland laughing
    4. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 22 August 2013 16: 41 New
      +4
      Oh, and here is the second skull. The old woman in high-voltage wires did not suffer for a long time wassat
      1. Ruslan67
        Ruslan67 22 August 2013 16: 45 New
        +8
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        The old woman did not suffer for long

        When I came to this site, these at least somehow disguised themselves. And now I got out a necklace from skulls on shoulder straps, in a bath request Trollin becomes smaller So it’s possible to bring the matter to the Red Book laughing
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 22 August 2013 16: 48 New
          +3
          Quote: Ruslan67
          Trollin is smaller

          Ruslan + laughing
  5. xetai9977
    xetai9977 22 August 2013 16: 03 New
    +9
    Quote: serjant4
    serjant4 Today, 15:19 PM
    Monkey battle ahead

    Do not turn the site into a booth! Have something to say on the topic, say. The topic is interesting.
    1. Ruslan67
      Ruslan67 22 August 2013 16: 11 New
      +1
      Quote: xetai9977
      Have something to say on the topic, say. The topic is interesting.

      A pair of three trainers will bring each herd of monkeys to the arena and the distribution of bananas will begin wassat God forbid that it would not be like the Tajiks after the collapse of the union. If there is no worthy successor, then the brawler may come out not frail request
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 22 August 2013 16: 38 New
        +3
        Quote: Ruslan67
        A pair of three trainers will bring each herd of monkeys to the arena and the distribution of bananas will begin

        The joke is that there are enough bananas for everyone, but here you need to think winked
        1. Ruslan67
          Ruslan67 22 August 2013 16: 39 New
          +2
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          there are enough bananas for everyone, but here you need to think

          And horseradish to think - you need to shake wassat
          1. Ka-52
            Ka-52 22 August 2013 17: 50 New
            +3
            Who will shake it? I'm afraid there the American eagle can make a nest. am
            Why cannot our state like amers, change the government and plant its monkeys ?! crying
            And then we are surprised how it is, like partners in the CIS, the former republic of Soviets, and we do not give a damn!
            Why stiffness should be shown only in the west and NATO, and we can’t put our former sheep in a stall?!?!
            I apologize in advance to everyone whom my post offended. hi
            Sheep is a national government, with an aggressive policy directed against Russia.
  6. biglow
    biglow 22 August 2013 16: 06 New
    +6
    It is a pity that there are no Uzbeks on the site who could tell what is happening in Uzbekistan. Because the author of the article lives in Ukraine and he is clearly not an Uzbek
    1. Ali-gurg
      Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 36 New
      0
      Quote: biglow
      It is a pity that there are no Uzbeks on the site who could tell what is happening in Uzbekistan

      All of us are normally respected ... and so on. We will take care of this. Yes, we do not have oil tanks as neighbors, but we did not sell our lands to foreigners, and we are working little by little. Our first task now is to raise the standard of living of the population and return the prodigal people from abroad. I think she is tight. And there will be no chaos, so put aside popcorn.
      1. Essenger
        Essenger 24 August 2013 01: 28 New
        +2
        Quote: Ali-Gurg
        Yes, we do not have oil tanks as neighbors, but we did not sell our lands to foreigners

        Again, the Kazakhs are to blame?))) You can write at least one comment without reproaching the Kazakhs?
        1. Ali-gurg
          Ali-gurg 24 August 2013 08: 53 New
          0
          Quote: Essenger
          Again, the Kazakhs are to blame?))) You can write at least one comment without reproaching the Kazakhs?

          Do you even see a line of reproach in my comment? And then the Kazakhs? Or do you see the shadow of criticism everywhere? What reproaches dear? Are you confusing something or this topic has really pinned you wink
          1. Essenger
            Essenger 24 August 2013 21: 02 New
            +1
            I have repeatedly read comments from our Uzbek brothers about how we sold everyone land and resources, etc.)))
            1. Ali-gurg
              Ali-gurg 26 August 2013 12: 40 New
              0
              Quote: Essenger
              I have repeatedly read comments from our Uzbek brothers about how we sold everyone land and resources, etc.)))

              I ask the question an edge again, where in my koment reproach? And what have you read before?
  7. a52333
    a52333 22 August 2013 16: 15 New
    +3
    UzRus on the site. He is from Tashkent, he sees the situation from the inside. Alexander. ay!
  8. buga1979
    buga1979 22 August 2013 16: 15 New
    +8
    Quote: serjant4
    The battle of monkeys is coming :)

    comrade for more respect we are not in the zoo minus you
    1. Tatarus
      Tatarus 22 August 2013 17: 49 New
      +4
      Quote: buga1979
      comrade by more respect we are not at the zoo


      Definitely not at the zoo. I used to think that we were in a circus. And it looks like a fool
  9. Xroft
    Xroft 22 August 2013 16: 21 New
    +3
    Uzbekistan is not able to independently control the borders, but the borders of its territory in the Ferghana Valley, which regularly turn into a field of combat activity (which is worth blocking gangs of the group and an attempt by state troops to knock them out during a 2-week operation) The same situation with neighbors, we add enclaves in foreign territories as eternal * coals * of conflict. The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan will turn the region into a transit route for radicals to the territory of Russia-China. It is not in vain that we and the Chinese are trying to strengthen our military influence (bases in Kyrgyzstan, etc.). It will be a buffer zone that should keep all the trash of mercenaries from Syria, terrorists from Afghanistan, etc. Will they cope? Or we are waiting for the extension of Afghanistan but already on the border territories.
  10. savoj
    savoj 22 August 2013 16: 30 New
    -5
    The Russians are especially good at controlling their borders.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 22 August 2013 16: 36 New
      +7
      Quote: savoj
      The Russians are especially good at controlling their borders.

      Judging by the fact that someone like you went to the Internet under the Belarusian flag is not very good. Well, nothing will be fixed over time.
      1. xetai9977
        xetai9977 22 August 2013 16: 47 New
        +7
        It would be great if users were from all the republics of the former Union. They would clarify the situation from the inside. Besides the Kazakhs, the countries of Central Asia are very poorly represented. And we have information about the region only from the media. But I don’t really want to believe them. They didn’t deserve it.
        1. Ali-gurg
          Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 33 New
          0
          Quote: xetai9977
          It would be great if users would be from all the republics of the former Union.

          Yes, especially not in favor, we are here wink They often drive them to the bathhouse.
    2. Tatarus
      Tatarus 22 August 2013 17: 53 New
      +3
      You are not grateful. If we start to absolutely control the borders. That is where you will work. Belarusians at our construction sites are also missing. And in general, Alexander Grigoryevich enough to troll on Putin’s website laughing
  11. Vtel
    Vtel 22 August 2013 16: 31 New
    +1
    - I was counting on you, Said ...
    - The East is a delicate matter ... - Mahmoud! Set it on fire! “They have grenades of the wrong system.”
    -Aristarch! Arrange with the customs ... (Cf 'White desert sun')
    - The commander must think! Think! And not just wave your saber!
    - For prize shooting and understanding of the current political moment, cadet Trofimov is awarded with red revolutionary bloomers! (Kf 'Officers')
  12. Essenger
    Essenger 22 August 2013 16: 41 New
    +3
    De_monsher comment on the article?
    1. Vtel
      Vtel 22 August 2013 16: 54 New
      0
      So something was recalled from old films. Literally not worth taking. It means that in those distant times everything was not easy, but we have to make our own arrangements and live in friendship, otherwise the wild West will press us.
      May God grant you all health and wisdom.
    2. de_monSher
      de_monSher 22 August 2013 18: 32 New
      +2
      My head hurts wildly to comment on something.

      I can say one thing - clannishness, this is a common disease of the entire post-USSR. Therefore, it seems strange to me when the clan system in Uzbekistan is singled out in a separate paragraph - as if there are no clans in Russia or Kazakhstan ... *) Still, it is simple - there are common business interests, there are clans. There is no capitalism without business interests. It follows that clannishness is a common infection ... In fact, many "patriots" of Russia offer clans of Uzbekistan, replaced by clans of Russia - for example ... well, well ...

      As for the situation in Uzbekistan, hmm ... just look at the map please. Then sit down and think. If the thought doesn’t stir in your head, look at the map again and think again ... *) But suddenly you still understand what I want to say, huh? *)))
  13. Indifferent
    Indifferent 22 August 2013 16: 43 New
    15
    The calculation for migrant workers is more than naive. Whoever comes to power in Uzbekistan, the policy of this country will be either anti-Russian or neutral, but not pro-Russian! There have been many changes over 20 years. Destroyed almost everything that was connected with the USSR. All streets were renamed, most of the buildings built in the Russian part of Tashkent were demolished. New textbooks are written in which Russia is called the colonial empire, which robbed the poor and impoverished Uzbekistan. All is forgotten. As professors at the beginning of the 20th century, universities left Moscow and went to Tashkent to start science from scratch. That illiteracy was eliminated, institutes, academies, laboratories were created, factories and factories were built. Even the fact that Tashkent after the earthquake was restored mainly by Russia. Almost all cotton growing began with the Russian Governor General. And it is forgotten. Moreover, under Karimov, who saw all this and knows. One can imagine what will happen when young people come to power, brought up according to new textbooks and Western standards. In my opinion, Uzbekistan is waiting for the Turkmen version at best. I'd love to make a mistake.
    1. Ali-gurg
      Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 32 New
      +1
      Let’s not write here who owes what to someone ... and if we begin to present you, the list will also be small ... do not forget who your echelons with hungry refugees received, fed, sat in the trenches, and raised the country after the devastation. ..
  14. avt
    avt 22 August 2013 17: 15 New
    +6
    Quote: indifferent
    One can imagine what will happen when young people come to power, brought up according to new textbooks and Western standards.

    Hizbut Tahrir will be there.
    Quote: indifferent
    In my opinion, Uzbekistan is waiting for the Turkmen version at best. I'd love to make a mistake.

    Her, Turkmen Bashi studied very well at the Higher School of Economics, and Karimov cannot be compared, as the receiver on the throne testifies to. Judging by those conflicts escaping both with the Tajiks and inside - the smut is provided for us and the neighbors of Uzbekistan, they are groovy guys, and even crazy about the dope. The only question is the size of the problems ahead.
  15. Siberian
    Siberian 22 August 2013 17: 33 New
    +1
    Quote: savoj
    The most interesting thing is that the Russians feel themselves half a meter above all the others ..... this will destroy them.
    If you are talking about RUSSIAN politicians who call themselves Russian (pooh on them), perhaps you are right. And about ordinary citizens of RUSSIA, this does not have a nationality conception; (we have a lot of nationalities), then no one considers himself 0.5 meters higher in relation to others. PS If anything, I am Russian, and was born in SIBERIA. Descendant of exiles.
    1. a52333
      a52333 22 August 2013 17: 43 New
      0
      We noticed your flag has changed, with a return. hi
  16. i'm from texas
    i'm from texas 22 August 2013 17: 53 New
    +3
    it’s hard for the Uzbeks with such a leadership. They went wild, returned to the Middle Ages.
  17. Andrew 447
    Andrew 447 22 August 2013 17: 55 New
    0
    If Karimov does not name the receiver arranging the main clans, there will be a bacchanalia in a steeper way than “color revolutions”, and the presence of ethnic tensions within Uzbekistan and territorial disputes with neighbors can seriously aggravate the situation.
  18. i'm from texas
    i'm from texas 22 August 2013 18: 00 New
    +3
    everything is really bad there. The salary is equivalent to a sack of flour. Police arbitrariness. Young Uzbeks cannot read! And before, they were the richest republic
    1. saag
      saag 22 August 2013 18: 34 New
      0
      Shimkent or something? :-)
    2. biglow
      biglow 22 August 2013 19: 22 New
      0
      Quote: i'm from texas
      everything is really bad there. The salary is equivalent to a sack of flour. Police arbitrariness. Young Uzbeks cannot read! And before, they were the richest republic

      if everything is as you write, now it’s clear why they even go to our Crimea and are ready to work for any pennies. Greyhounds only begin very quickly.
      As 3 pennies earn and begin to force the poorer Uzbeks to work, they don’t know how to drink vodka after 100 grams, they start flattering the girls until they get calm in the face. Although someone said that the Uzbeks are calm ...
    3. Ali-gurg
      Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 29 New
      0
      Quote: i'm from texas
      everything is really bad there. The salary is equivalent to a bag of flour.

      You're really from Texas ... you can see right away wink Where have you seen such a sn equivalent to a bag of flour in R. Uz. or is it your dreams? Hmm ... Shymket Shymkent .... Texas in one word ....
  19. Yankuz
    Yankuz 22 August 2013 18: 25 New
    +1
    Quote: JACOB
    Russian barbarians broke into villages, villages and camps, leaving behind only libraries, theaters and cities.

    It used to be. Now is not the time and circumstances.
  20. darksoul
    darksoul 22 August 2013 18: 37 New
    +1
    So that he doesn’t come to power, at least do something for the people, that they’d live normally so that they don’t go to us
    1. Ali-gurg
      Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 27 New
      0
      Quote: darksoul
      So that he doesn’t come to power, at least do something for the people, that they’d live normally so that they don’t go to us

      We’ll do our own thing for everyone, we don’t really like that the people slandering over there ... they will be useful to us soon.
  21. Semurg
    Semurg 22 August 2013 20: 45 New
    +7
    In Tashkent, more or less in the outback they live poorly, in our country they live in richer capitals but the poverty of their outback is stronger. Karimov got all the people surprised even more, everyone wants and is waiting for his death. Well, clans, fraternities, tribalism are everywhere simply called differently. The elite is always divided according to business interests, but what it is not important to call it. Uzbeks as a people are very hardworking, natural farmers cultivate any piece of land. If an economically competent person comes to power, Uzbekistan is able to make a breakthrough, their bowels are also not poor, and the working population does not have enough to properly manage this. Many children and youth may need to be engaged in demography There are not so many suitable lands. Border disputes with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have come to mining the borders, relations with Kazakhstan have also been strained now, it seems to have settled down (though they built an unharmed fence in some places concrete two years ago, border guards shot people with both this side is now quiet) At the dawn of independence, there were often conversations that Uzbekistan would dominate in Central Asia, now these conversations have come to naught. From Shymkent, people often go there to be treated there twice as cheaply and serve well, though it’s boring and long to cross the border especially in spring and autumn when they go to Gastrika. Simple people are friendly if they turn to people trying to help; there’s a lot of new things. If the regime changes, if Karimov dies suddenly there will be a short massacre at the top, then everyone will vote for the receiver. The only thing that can happen is the irreconcilable opposition in Afghanistan, if they break into Ferghana and gain a foothold in some place, they’ll probably get support .how people are poor and angry and there are many young people who are believers.
    1. a52333
      a52333 22 August 2013 21: 01 New
      +1
      Uzbeks as a people are very hardworking, natural farmers cultivate any piece of land.
      I do not argue about hard work. But the country is deprived of water, and they are trying to solve the problem with Tajikistan on water, like the boys on the football field (who will shout whom). At the expense of resources. Well, yes, there is gold, there is tungsten in Uchkuduk, it seems like not rich deposits of uranium, the resource is weak. From the point of view of the people, a breakthrough is not worth it. The population is small. It is necessary to focus on someone. Or with us, or you yourself know.
      1. de_monSher
        de_monSher 23 August 2013 14: 13 New
        0
        and they are trying to solve the problem with Tajikistan on water, like the boys on the football field (who will shout whom).


        Damn ... All the problems of ignorance. You make a STANDARD mistake, and I understand perfectly well that this is not your fault, but the fault of those who promote their business interests. The problem of Uzbekistan is not the lack of water - according to the most conservative estimates, groundwater = absolutely clean and potable = more than in 5-7 Baikals. What you call conflicts at the borders does not stem from the USE of water, but the USE of water. Do you feel the difference? Improper water use can lead to both man-made and environmental disasters. What causes the earth to die in desert, semi-desert and steppe zones? The funniest thing is from the water. When raising the horizon of subsoil waters, its intensive evaporation occurs - water evaporates, salts remain, the earth dies ... you can separately consider the hydraulic structures that lobby the business clans of Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and against which the business clans of Uzbekistan and partly Kazakhstan ... but this I think will be useless ... You do not need the truth, I think ... You need your illusions ...
  22. Siberian
    Siberian 22 August 2013 21: 57 New
    0
    Quote: biglow
    It is a pity that there are no Uzbeks on the site who could tell what is happening in Uzbekistan. Because the author of the article lives in Ukraine and he is clearly not an Uzbek
    In fact, at least bir Uzbek responded.
    1. a52333
      a52333 22 August 2013 22: 30 New
      0
      assalom alaikum, sғliging with yachshis? қandai salomatlik bologarni? Kandai Putin? Well, I don’t know where UzRus has gone. I already shouted in PM.
    2. Ali-gurg
      Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 26 New
      +1
      Well, there are Uzbeks here wink And I can assure those who are waiting for hardcore in Uzbekistan, they haven’t stocked up popcorn in vain ... everything will be fine with us.
  23. Semurg
    Semurg 22 August 2013 22: 00 New
    +5
    With water, I need to think about changing the mono-culture of cotton to less hygrophilous plant species. In addition to those listed, there is gas — oil is not in those gigantic quantities as in Russia, but there is enough for myself and for export to China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. 25 million of the population for their enclosing landscape seems to me the limit on this I write that you probably need to reduce the birth rate. Well, and the promise is with us or jo-pa and this simplification is needed. There are many players in Middle Asia (Russia, China, USA, etc.) balance it all, and a strong roll in one direction will lead to the active actions of other players.
    1. a52333
      a52333 22 August 2013 22: 38 New
      +1
      Understand the traditional, give money, and my friends and I are working poorly, especially since Karimov has already shown "multi-vector" - as the saying goes, if you give everyone a bed breaks down, even though I myself am from Uzbekistan, I understand that the distant Egypt is more geostrategic for the Russian Federation, with its Suez Canal, than Uzbekistan. And there is an underbelly-Ukraine. And if you pour money into the election, then there.
  24. Ram chandra
    Ram chandra 23 August 2013 01: 53 New
    -3
    I do not like Uzbeks. Phew.
    1. Ali-gurg
      Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 25 New
      0
      Quote: Ram Chandra
      I do not like Uzbeks. Phew.

      and no one asks you to love ... do not love silently wink
      1. Ram chandra
        Ram chandra 24 August 2013 00: 25 New
        -1
        And nobody asked you to indicate whether to be silent or not. We have freedom of speech, you know that?
        1. de_monSher
          de_monSher 24 August 2013 13: 32 New
          -1
          Sure, not a problem. You can "not love" out loud - for us the Uzbeks are neither hot nor cold from this. Who, in fact, can control your stupid thoughts in your head, except for you? *)
  25. Ali-gurg
    Ali-gurg 23 August 2013 17: 46 New
    0
    And so the article is minus ... the article is a template reprint of old articles based on rumors and subjective conclusions of pseudopolitologists who have not even been to Uzbekistan.
    1. biglow
      biglow 23 August 2013 18: 03 New
      +1
      Quote: Ali-Gurg
      And so the article is minus ... the article is a template reprint of old articles based on rumors and subjective conclusions of pseudopolitologists who have not even been to Uzbekistan.

      the article may not be very good, but since you are from Uzbekistan, write what will happen after Karimov leaves, he is not eternal, who can come to his place and so on ..
    2. de_monSher
      de_monSher 24 August 2013 13: 38 New
      +1
      I did not pose a minus to the article, but actually I agree - it’s about nothing. Finally about anything. The author spat on the ceiling, counted on the fingers who is sitting in the government of Uzbekistan, lost count, spat and wrote the first thing that came to mind. But in fact ... huh ... to call the same Asimov a Westerner is ridiculous ... or to forget that the same Gulnara Karimova’s son for almost 20 years is also ridiculous. And to dismiss Karimov himself, given the successes of the current gerontology, this is idiocy at all. A dude may be going to make fun of the throne for another 10-15 years, envy everyone, and then transfer power to his grandson ... *)) No one thought about this, huh? *)))