Pareto's Law and War
"And I turned, and saw under the sun,
that it’s not quick to get a successful run,
not a brave victory, not a wise one - bread,
and not reasonable wealth ... but time and chance
for all of them. "
(Ecclesiastes 8.11)
that it’s not quick to get a successful run,
not a brave victory, not a wise one - bread,
and not reasonable wealth ... but time and chance
for all of them. "
(Ecclesiastes 8.11)
There is no need to think too much to come to the idea that it is injustice that rules our world. And this sad truth almost everyone knows almost from the cradle!
Well, justice is just a pleasant exception to this very obvious rule. Take, for example, countries: some are poor, others are rich. Here is our Zadornov honors Americans: “Well, they are stupid! Well, they are spiritless! ” But they live for the most part better than us, and so much so that it’s fit to place an ad somewhere: “I am changing my spirituality to a house in the USA, and so that the heated pool!”
And so it was from the very beginning that someone has something, but someone is missing something. Some people are fat, others are thin. Some are clever, while others, in everyday life, are "fools." One is lucky in life, the other - “lucky as drowned.” But the most surprising thing is that the mechanism of this unevenness, it turns out, has a numerical expression, and attempts to study it almost always led and lead to two "magic" numbers - 20 and 80.
Ask the sellers and you will find out that 20% of the products on the counter bring 80% revenue, and the same can be said about 20% buyers. Entrepreneurs will add that 80% of work is performed by 20% of their employees, but even these workaholics achieve 80% of the result only during 20% of the work day, and the rest of the time, in essence, are sitting out their pants. The same is true in the “world of crime”: 20% of criminals commit 80% crimes. The traffic police officers will add that in 80% of traffic accidents only 20% of drivers are to blame. And the school teacher? 80% of problems with discipline in a classroom are delivered to him by 20% students.
And the other 20% children use the 80% opportunity provided by the education system. And even at home, 20% of stains account for 80% of carpets, and 80% of the time you wear only 20% of your clothes.
The internal combustion engine also fits in perfectly with the mysticism of these magic numbers: 80% of energy is lost during the combustion of fuel, and only 20% of energy is transferred to the wheels. And finally, at the planetary level: land accounts for about 20% of the Earth’s area (80% is the ocean), 20% of people live on 80% land, 20% of countries are concentrated in 80% of total production, 20% of the territory lives over 80% of it population. It remains only to shrug: just some kind of mysticism!
In fact, this is not a mystic at all, but a real law - “the principle of 20 to 80”, opened in 1897 by the Italian economist and sociologist Wilfredo Pareto (1848 – 1923). His discovery was called differently, including the "Pareto principle" or the "principle of least effort."
His fate is a very instructive example of the beautiful use of his natural mind by man. He was born 15 July 1848 in the family in many generations belonged to the commercial bourgeoisie, and was even listed in the Golden Book of the Genoa Republic. For collaboration with the French, Pareto’s grandfather won Napoleon’s aristocratic title, which his grandson inherited. In 1864 – 1867 Wilfredo studied mathematics and physics at the University of Turin. Then he also received an engineering education. Soon he defended his thesis on physical and mathematical sciences. But even then he was interested in biology, economics, read the works of social thinkers. He then worked for twenty years (1870 – 1890) in industry, and in the joint-stock company “Metallurgical plants Val d'Arnot” even became its general director.
In 1882, V. Pareto tried to get a seat in parliament, but failed. However, the retreat was not in the rules of Pareto, it was contrary to his fighting temperament. Three more times he entered the fray as a candidate from the left-liberal party of the radicals, but he lost all three times.
Finally, he decided to go the distance. The disappointment was all the more bitter because Pareto felt his potential. However, he was not helped by either oratorical talents, nor convincing logic of arguments. In the political struggle, other factors turned out to be more significant. His closest friend, well-known economist Maffeo Pantaleoni said that in politics “charlatans and sophists were valued more than decent people.”
As a result, at the beginning of 90's. XIX century. Pareto abruptly changed his life. Having retired from the post of general director of the metallurgical company, he moved to Switzerland. There, in 1894, he became a professor in the department of political economy at the University of Lausanne. But he was uncontrollably attracted to her sociology. He came up with the idea of capital labor, in which his entire erudition could be revealed. Having received a solid legacy at 1898, he bought a villa near Lausanne, in Celineux, and completely plunged into work there. He was nicknamed “the hermit from Celigny”.
After him, he left many outstanding works, but began to study society with the question of wealth and income in the UK. It was then that he found out that 80% of income and property in the country always belonged only to 20% of Britons, and this proportion never changed. Then he moved to other countries and found that any reform changed only the names and social groups of successful people, but did not break the surprising ratio of 20 to 80. Why this unevenness is so surprisingly predictable and can be traced in all spheres of life precisely at this level, Pareto could not explain, just like no one else afterwards. But the fact remains.
For 52 years, the meaning of the open Pareto principle was not taken into account by anyone. But in 1949, a Harvard philology professor George K. Zipf reformulated his law as follows: all people, goods, knowledge, and time itself, organize themselves so as to keep the work expended to a minimum. For example, the mess on the desktop is only 20% of the papers and objects that should always be at hand: this Zipf justified the "work mess". Therefore, getting out on your desktop all the time, you are doing 80% of low-value work, and you really need it? Firms that have ceased to struggle with the disorder on the desktops, in the end have achieved greater prosperity.
In 1951, an American engineer, Joseph Moses Juran, called the Pareto principle "the principle of little that is crucial" and laid the foundation for finding ways to improve product quality and eradicate unjustified costs.
In the USA and Europe, Juran was not appreciated, and he moved to Japan, where he began working with several local corporations. He convinced Japanese businessmen to start a radical change immediately, give up four-fifths of what they did: stop producing 80% products, and sell the remaining 20% most profitable products only 20% to the most profitable customers, replacing 80% worse employees. Moreover, he explained to them - “you are very lucky that the Americans bombed you with the“ flying fortresses ”of the B-29 and destroyed 80% of the housing stock and industrial enterprises. All this old stuff won't hang around us like a stone! ”
And the result exceeded all expectations. Recall that at the beginning of the 50-s. XX century. The economic situation of Japan and the standard of living of its citizens were comparable to the situation in an African country like Egypt. But only after 20 years, Japan began to catch up with the United States and even overtake!
After 1970, the West began to take Juran seriously, and he returned to the United States to do for the American industry what he did for the Japanese.
One of the first to adopt the 20 principle for 80 in America was the computer and software manufacturers for them. So, experts found that approximately 80% of computer time was spent on processing 20% of the program's commands. They redesigned the system software so that these commands were user-friendly, which won the new masses of customers, made the computer easily accessible for the latest teapot.
However, even all those who know and apply the 20 principle to 80, use only a small fraction of its power. Probably, moral and simply pragmatic considerations interfere. For example, entrepreneurial ethics says that all clients and customers are equally valuable. Do not "cut off" the same 80%, as the cunning Japanese do! What do 80% of your friends and relatives do? Is it possible to delete from the notebook? What to do with 80% of business papers and phone calls? And what will happen to the country in which 80% of workers are driven out of the gates of enterprises and firms without giving reasons, and no need to say!
In the last century, massive attempts were made to equalize incomes, not only in the countries that built socialism, but also in the West. However, inequality, eradicated in one sphere, suddenly appeared in another. In the USSR, for example, 80% of national wealth created ... yes, it was 20% of workers! Others enjoyed the real fruits of "public property", and 20% of the "workers" belonged to the party and management apparatus.
Comforts in this situation can only be that 80% of working time, you also do not idle, and perform 20% of work, which, after all, is also necessary for someone. That 80% of your friends and acquaintances did 20% of something useful for you or simply gave 20% of pleasant minutes. That 80% land - impregnable mountains, wild forests, tundra and deserts - although not suitable for life, but also beautiful in its own way and designed by the Creator as 80% of "dark matter" in the Universe, which is not visible, but, nevertheless, it is!
Well, now let's see how the "Pareto law", war and military equipment are related. Yes, exactly the same! Take, for example, the ongoing debate between amateurs and professionals about which tank is better than the T-34 or the German Panther, BF-109 or Yak-3 aircraft, and so on. But do not argue! You just need to look at all the available samples, and determine which group of these or other this or that machine belongs to. 20% are the best, 80% are all the rest! And now the conclusion is that if the same T-34 is in the 20% of the best in the world tanks, and this, undoubtedly, is true, then ... big losses in them are due to what? It is precisely with this - bad command! Accordingly, an army that has poor models of equipment can have good leadership, a higher culture as a whole, but at the same time lose, because “there is no method against scrap”. And of course, in this case, the main role is played by resources. At any level of leadership, 80% of resources guarantee victory in any case, whereas if you have only 20% in your hands, then no “ingenious commanders” will save you and your country. It is also clear that the level of industrial militarization cannot be more than 20%, otherwise the "country will fall apart", and accordingly, if 80% of the citizens (or so) do not believe their president or Supreme Commander-in-chief, there will be no good!
And again, if we are talking about the quality of the armed forces, then they can be considered qualitative at the 80% level of their constant updating, that is, this level should not fall. But if the proportion is inverse, then ... weapons not waving, but using, for example, bribing officials in the enemy state, and among his allies, to compromise his power structures, that is, deliver strikes with the effectiveness of 80%, where the enemy has the efficiency of the entire 20 ...
However, already one knowledge of this law for any specialist, including for the military, is a real gift of fate. So, if we assume that 80% of property in our country belongs to 20% of our fellow citizens (and it’s easy to see that this is the case now), it turns out that 80% of all others simply cannot own significant amounts of property and manage it is proprietary. It can be said that they are not sufficiently educated, socialized, psychologically and morally prepared for this, and finally, again “life-like”, that they are “just fools”: this will not change the essence of this phenomenon in any way. And if, say, in your military unit 80% of recruits has a low IQ, then ... what high requirements on the part of the leadership towards you, as its commander, may even be involved? Let rejoice that the automatic machine from a shovel distinguish! But here it follows that since the “Pareto law” is not an absolute thing, but a relative thing, each of us can be in 80%, and in 20% at the same time. What does it mean? A very simple. You can be there, and there, and at least let it comfort you! Hence, by the way, comes the beginning and well-known maxim to all of us, that “every nation deserves its ruler”.
At the same time, the stupidity of so many of our children and, accordingly, those who have just emerged from childhood, is also due to circumstances, and not even so much social, as natural-geographic ones. The fact is that 79% of the population, for example, in the same Russia lives in iodine-deficient regions, and the use of seafood is much lower than in Japan, and besides, for many people it is also simply expensive.
The so-called Cold War, when our leadership ruled the country, one after another by blowing up nuclear bombs on fear of the enemy, contributed a lot to the intellectual level decrease. By 1992 on the globe, such explosions were carried out by 1832 (not counting those produced by India, Pakistan, South Africa and Israel) with a total power of 600 megatons adequate to 40000 Hiroshima! Naturally, all this has resolved in the atmosphere and in the earth's bowels. We all breathe, we all eat ... in fact, because of the ambitiousness of our communist leaders, we all have already experienced World War III, and with the large-scale use of nuclear weapons!
By the way, the radioactive isotopes of iodine produced by nuclear explosions are deposited primarily in children’s and youth’s bodies and, to put it mildly, cause a weakening of mental abilities. And the plants and factories, throwing into the atmosphere all the nastiness? Production of pesticides and chemical weapons? Constant drunkenness, which reached 1980 liters in 16 in terms of pure alcohol per inhabitant of the Country of the Soviets, including newborns and infants? So it all affected, and how. The same with the 1968 year is observed, by the way, in the USA. And in India, hunger affects mind deficits. There and now 75% of the population does not pay taxes, and all because it lives below the lowest subsistence minimum, has a cup of rice per meal per day and ... still continues to multiply and multiply! That is, we have already survived the Third World War with the use of nuclear and chemical weapons and ... what do we want after this? It's good that at least we live like this, that there are no smoking ruins around ...
Continuing to consider human society from the point of view of the “Pareto law” further, we will inevitably come to the conclusion that 80% of officials are likely to take bribes. Overcoming corruption means changing this proportion to the opposite! 80% of teachers are yesterday's troechnik and they simply should not be allowed to children, and the same picture is observed in universities (I judge this from my own experience, since I work in high school with 1982). And among the scientific experts 80%, most likely, people are just mediocre - “teachers”. But 20% are very talented, and here they are carrying the whole “scientific waggon” on themselves. Yes, only they, with their surroundings, have a very hard time, which is proved by the saying: “Hell is different.” 80% of artists simply do not know how to draw, but so that they are not told about it, they usually say: “I see it that way!”. Accordingly, 80% of writers are graphomania who work for the consumer 80% is by no means an elite public. But among the officers, the Hindenburg, we still have less than the “ensigns of the Zadovs”!
Well, now a number of practical tips that to one degree or another will make you happy for life.
Think, and what 20% you enter and ... it is in this area of being and try to make a career. Or on the contrary: everyone learns English, and you start learning Japanese, Swedish or Chinese. Then you find yourself in 20% "rare people" and your salary, of course, may increase.
Journalists senselessly focus on the opinion of 80% of readers - you just need to know it and ... try to please them, otherwise they will stop buying your publications, and on 20%, "the weather is not done." Reconsider and your wardrobe. In it ... yes, you wear 80% "clothes" in 20% of cases, and the same goes for shoes. So buy yourself some smaller clothes, and with all that remains, play Forex and it may well be that you are lucky. Let you be comforted that even the poor have their own elite and try to get into it. A girl without a special mind should remember that the bust number is the key to almost any door that leads up! Similarly, we should not forget what Julius Caesar said: “It is better to be first in the village than the second in Rome!” And it’s just that in order to make yourself a career and live in your pleasure it is not necessary to go in Miami or Moscow. Finally, being in these very 20%, do not forget that they, too, are divided ... yes, by the same principle, and you can be in the elite, but you can become "poor" and not so good. And if you are among all these "80-ti" by all indications, and you, forgive me, have neither mind nor imagination (well, what can you do - the father drank heavily before conception, then the mother in a drunken business dropped ...), then still do not be sad! The sun shines for you in the same way as for the super-rich oligarchs, sit by the fire on the bank of the river and enjoy unity with nature! It is worth it - checked repeatedly! And finally, if you have a desktop littered with papers, then do not get out on your desktop! Or rather, do it only twice a year - because cleaning up on it regularly is wasting your precious time! And never do something that requires 80% labor costs, and everything brings profit only to 20 ... And then at least war, even peace, you will be happy!
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