Military Review

The split in the American elite and the fate of "free money"

9
The split in the American elite and the fate of "free money"Like a few years ago, the world is once again looking at the US Federal Reserve System with tension. Then, it is true, everyone was first interested in how the discount rate would fall, and then - whether it would increase. Today we are talking about the termination of emission programs QE3, it is also - ku-ku-ku. But before discussing the specific actions of specific individuals, a few words need to be said about why, and why stop the issue at all.


Indeed, inflation, although it is higher than the official indicators (and who else is?), Nevertheless, seems to remain in more or less decent frames. Official indicators of the economy also show a positive trend - so why break a spear? But in fact, everything is much more complicated. First, the statistical data, if interpreted correctly, do not at all show an improvement in the situation, rather the opposite (see, for example, the latest review of the world economy by Sergey Egishyants).

Secondly, there is no certainty that equity money generally has a positive impact on the economy, or rather, on its real sector. Most of them immediately enter the speculative sector, which shows historical highs (such as the New York Stock Exchange) with, in general, far from outstanding indicators of the economy. In a sense, this is inflation - the growth of stock indicators against the backdrop of stagnation of their issuers. However, inflation is traditionally considered a negative indicator, and the stock exchange growth is positive, so no one is worried.

Thirdly, serious problems were formed when investing in the real sector. Demand is falling (and enterprises cannot be fooled by any official statistics), and banks are less and less willing to give money to enterprises - since at a low rate the return is delayed for many years, and against the background of a general recession there is no guarantee that the money will return at all. If banks would not have an alternative, this issue could still be somehow resolved, but when banks have the opportunity to receive "third-party" profits due to the redistribution of emission money - you have to be a fool to invest in the real sector. All attempts by the Fed to force banks to lend to enterprises and individuals, in general, were unsuccessful.

There is another reason. The fact is that the issue does not lead to high inflation, including because the structure of the money supply is changing. There is a replacement of credit money for cash, or, otherwise, a decrease in the credit (banking) multiplier, which decreased from the 2008 year more than three times, from 17 to 5. And this process continues. But it is impossible to lower the multiplier to unity, and this means that sooner or later, emissions will lead to an increase in inflation - and this is another reason why it is worth considering whether or not to reduce emissions altogether.

In this case, it is necessary to take into account another important circumstance. During the time of “Reaganomics” (and a bit slower this process started since 60), the share of the financial sector in the redistribution of the total profits created in the economy has grown significantly - to more than 50%. In other words, today successful enterprises are mainly financial structures (independent companies or divisions of other companies) that are most actively opposed to the termination of the issue. And their voice is heard much stronger than the voices of others - because they simply have substantially more money.

In such a situation, the Fed leadership must very carefully prepare the public to reduce rates. And since the head of this organization, Ben Bernanke, is in many respects bound by different political circumstances (which was well seen in his speeches at the beginning of summer, when he literally changed his mind on the opposite during the week), other leaders again come to the fore. So, Sandra Pianalto, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said the other day: “Employment growth turned out to be more noticeable than I expected. In particular, the current unemployment rate in the US economy is more than half a percentage point lower than me and my colleagues in the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank predicted last September. In light of this improvement, in my opinion, it is likely that the Fed will go to reduce the monthly volume of asset purchases. Of course, provided that the trend towards improvement in the labor market continues. ”

The head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Dennis Lockhart does not lag behind her, according to whom the reduction of QE3 volumes may begin at one of the Fed Reserves meetings that have remained this year. Later, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Charles Evans, did not rule out the beginning of the curtailment of the program in September. According to him, most likely, this will occur in several stages. On the eve and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher noted that the Fed is close to the decision to slow QE3 after the publication of data on reducing unemployment to 7,4%.

We note, by the way, that the main argument is low unemployment. Since the US authorities are desperately falsifying relevant statistics, throwing out those who have been unable to find work for a long time (but don’t want to work at all!), Natural suspicion arises, this is a targeted campaign, the essence of which is not only to show the success of the actions of the monetary authorities, but also to support the political decision already taken to reduce emission programs. And then this is a demonstration of the fact that, firstly, the authorities understand that things are not going as well as it seemed before, and secondly, that there is a serious confrontation between the US administrative authority (and the Fed here acts in conjunction with the administration US President) and the financial elite, which the issue, for obvious reasons, is quite satisfied.

If this hypothesis is correct, then this is most likely the most interesting effect of continuing emissions. In fact, the free money that the Fed is pumping into the economy goes to different participants in the economic process quite unevenly, which causes a serious split in the elite. And this is a very interesting and important effect.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.odnako.org/
9 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. alex86
    alex86 14 August 2013 19: 21
    14
    The saddest thing is that we (well, not only we) cover the issue of the dollar with oil production (conditionally), than we support the US economy, and we get cut paper ourselves - what can I say, they are great, so that the whole world pays for them and moans with pleasure - and we don’t know how, and don’t say that we are honest, we don’t know how, and that’s it. And this is very bad.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Aryan
      Aryan 14 August 2013 23: 02
      +4
      Shaman of the Indians brutally avenges Europeans for occupation
  2. Nevsky
    Nevsky 14 August 2013 19: 21
    +4
    Lord .... I watched this movie as a teenager:

    Soon your whole America kirdyk!



    The director and the main actor of the film have already died, their kingdom is heaven and the earth rest in peace!

    Yes, there will be no kirdyk to America just like that, you have to make a hand so that there is kirdyk!
    angry

    Although there was hope:

    California. USA. In California, an unusual law has been passed that allows transgender students to choose locker rooms and toilets at their discretion.

    The law, signed by Governor Jerry Brown, enters into force on January 1, 2014 and applies to both students and kindergarteners, writes Lenta.

    Thus, in all schools in California, girls who feel like boys can use the men's room or locker room, or join the men's sports team, and vice versa. According to the creators of the law, this will help transgender children not to feel isolated.

    Similar rules regarding transgender children were in effect in most California schools before, but they were not enacted in law. Similar practices are currently in place in the states of Massachusetts and Connecticut.
    1. Egen
      Egen 15 August 2013 12: 10
      0
      Quote: Nevsky
      girls who feel like boys will be able to use the men's toilet or locker room, or join the men's sports team, and vice versa

      So the most important thing here is probably "the other way around" :)))
  3. zvereok
    zvereok 14 August 2013 19: 42
    +4
    As long as our government trades in bulk and retail in the country, America, as the owner of the trading platform, will flourish.



    Where there Navalny, because at the top and are afraid of him, which can dig up something in the archives.
  4. user
    user 14 August 2013 20: 35
    +1
    Similar rules regarding transgender children were in effect in most California schools before, but they were not enacted in law. Similar practices are currently in place in the states of Massachusetts and Connecticut.

    That's who the flask is whistling
  5. Peaceful military
    Peaceful military 14 August 2013 21: 35
    +9
    All this is fun, do not be so sad. These guys muddied 4 world wars only in the 4th century, the last, XNUMXth safely continues now. It will not end in good. Will Russia survive? There is a chance, perhaps the last.
  6. I think so
    I think so 15 August 2013 01: 01
    -2
    Dear Khazin, as always, there are a lot of bukofs in his repertoire and nothing at all ... And all because of a misunderstanding of the STRUCTURE of the device of the capitalist world ... I already wrote about this to the respected Khazin in my comments ... but apparently everything was wasted ... and God is shooting with another ignoramus who often flickers with his thoughts on the expanses of informational white noise ...
  7. darkace
    darkace 15 August 2013 07: 04
    +1
    Quote: I think so
    Dear Khazin, as always, there are a lot of bukofs in his repertoire and nothing at all ... And all because of a misunderstanding of the STRUCTURE of the device of the capitalist world ... I already wrote about this to the respected Khazin in my comments ... but apparently everything was wasted ... and God is shooting with another ignoramus who often flickers with his thoughts on the expanses of informational white noise ...


    Tell me, what is the value of your comment for readers of the article and the site?
  8. dimon-media
    dimon-media 15 August 2013 08: 40
    0
    Mattresses have no economy, but a flea market, a bazaar ..