To the question of the external expansion of the yellow dragon
A feature of the development of Chinese civilization is its cyclical nature. AT stories China's empires clearly traced the 3 cycle: the formation, flourishing, death and chaos, in which a large or significant part of the population perishes. At present, China is at the “heyday” stage - expanded economic and demographic reproduction, although the Chinese elite were able to halt the population growth, but in response received an aging population and a decrease in the female population. The Chinese economy (not without US assistance) is experiencing rapid growth, it is ahead of Germany, Japan and is catching up with the United States. But in this growth there is a death trap, if he stops, China will face terrible social and economic problems that are guaranteed to cause an internal political crisis, riots of peasants and Muslim regions. As a result, China will move to the stage - "death."
The Chinese elite know this historical pattern and it is quite logical to assume that it has planned a method of overcoming, or at least extending the time frame of the “growth” period. Chinese philosophers suggest that there is a possibility of a stage - “Great Harmony”.
Signs of approaching the “doom” stage
- “Overheating” of the Chinese economy, too rapid growth rates led to the fact that if the state begins to stagnate (and this is possible due to the global crisis, demand in the United States, Europe, Russia, etc., decreases, although it is artificially supported pumping unsecured paper, but this is not forever); then in China there will be a sharp surge of socio-economic problems.
- The feverish arms race that China unleashed as early as the 90 of the 20 century, the whole of Southeast Asia joined the arms race.
- Growing discontent of the poorest segments of the population (peasantry), they are still the majority of the population. For example: the film "Avatar" popular in Russia, has received great popularity in China. The Chinese compare themselves with the fabulous “Navi” people, since the authorities pursue a policy of evicting people from ancestral lands for large-scale construction projects. So far, dissatisfaction is compensated by the opportunity to find work in cities.
- The growth of hedonism, the expansion of "new Chinese" - more and more yachts, casinos, luxury. China gradually admits viruses of destruction - more and more freedom is getting degenerates (trances, homosexuals). The growth of corruption of the state and party apparatus, while the truth is restrained by demonstrative executions.
- The growth of spontaneous violence, especially against children (which is a very bad sign, with a very reverent attitude towards children), indicates an increase in the negative in the subconscious world of Chinese civilization.
Exit paths
- Search for peaceful ways, to go to the “Great Harmony. It is possible only with the goodwill of the Chinese elite and in very close cooperation with the Russian civilization. But given that Russia itself is in search of ...
- External expansion, including military expansion, new territories and resources are needed to extend the time span of the “growth” stage, resources — especially the problem of clean water and agricultural land.
Signs of preparation for military expansion
- The arms race, China for 20 years, and in the 80 of the 20 of the century, it was a military “middling”, became the military power number two. North American military experts are already worried that China will soon overtake the United States in terms of the power and quantity of modern weapons.
- China is preparing its army, both for land attacks - powerful land armies, with a large number of heavy weapons, and for conflict with a high-tech adversary - is improving the fleet, building aircraft carriers, developing air defense, anti-ship weapon, Air force, anti-space weapons.
- China’s neighbors have dramatically stepped up their modernization of armies - South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and India (everyone has territorial disputes with China that can be the occasion for a big war). Only Russia is "sleeping."
- In the Chinese press, military circles talked about the need for expansion for the survival of the state.
- In the last Chinese films, the image of the enemy is clearly visible - “white man”, less often Japanese.
Attitude towards the USA
China believes that the United States is sick and cannot cope with the role of a leader, and they see that the States are waiting for “perestroika”. The Chinese elite understand that the US Army will not “pull” the classical war and will not go to a big war for the sake of Taiwan. Although it will support its Asian "allies" (diplomatically, possibly with arms, financially). In addition, China is the “factory” of the United States and the largest holder of American debt, the war with it, and especially the “real” one, will bring huge losses to the States.
Therefore, the States, like England and France, before the Second World War, until the last will endure the expansion of China, at the expense of neighbors. In addition, the American elite will benefit from the war in Asia, the world will forget about their problems.
Territorial claims of the Middle Kingdom
According to the ancient Chinese geopolitical concept: China is the “center of the world”, and the Middle Kingdom empire is surrounded by “barbarians” and “subhumans” who must pay tribute to the empire. Due to the fact that China is very conservative on a number of issues, this concept was rethought and modernized in communist China. Mao Zedong: “We definitely need to get Southeast Asia, including South Vietnam, Thailand, Burma, Malaysia, Singapore. ... Such a region as Southeast Asia is very rich, there are a lot of minerals there, it is completely worth the cost to get it. In the future, it will be very useful for the development of Chinese industry. Thus, it will be possible to fully pay damages. After we get Southeast Asia, we can increase our strength in this area ... ”(1965 year); "We must conquer the globe ... In my opinion, the most important thing is our globe, where we will create a powerful power."
The list of "lost Chinese territories" is very extensive: Burma, Laos, Vietnam, Nepal, Bhutan, northern India, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, Ryukyu Islands, more than 300 islands of the South China, East China and Yellow Seas, Kyrgyzstan, part Tajikistan, Southern Kazakhstan, the Afghan province of Badakh-shan, Mongolia, Transbaikalia and the south of the Far East up to Okhotsk. "Lost Chinese Territories" make up more than 10 million square meters. km This exceeds the territory of China (9,6 million sq. Km) more than doubled. After Mao, the Chinese leaders “cooled” and similar claims were not voiced, but they remained in the historical concept.
And do not think that China forgets what it considers its own - it returned Hong Kong (before 1997 belonged to Great Britain), Macao (before 1999 belonged to Portugal), chopped off part of the territory of Russia (2005 - 337 square km.), 1000 thousand square meters. km Tajikistan (January 2011, and claims to 28 thousand sq. km.). The stronger China and weaker neighbors, the greater the “appetite”.
Also doubtful is the belief in diplomacy. China has repeatedly, even before becoming the number two power, entered into armed conflicts with its neighbors: two border conflicts with India - 1962, 1967 years, Chinese-Soviet border conflict - 1969 year, war with Vietnam - 1979 year, two border conflict with Vietnam - 1984, 1988 years, three crises of the Taiwan Strait. China "swallowed" three vast territories that are not part of Chinese civilization - East Turkestan (captured in the 18 century), Inner Mongolia (finally after World War 2) and Tibet (50 X-th years of the 20 century).
Japan
There is a rather negative attitude towards Japan and the Japanese in China, the reason is very objective, at the end of 19 - the first half of the 20 century, Japan participated in plundering China along with the West. Twice attacked China and during the Second World War she staged a real genocide in North China, millions of Chinese were killed (no exact figures). Moreover, Japan still has not brought an official apology for the policies of the then government.
There is a territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, which Japan seized in 1895. China naturally believes that it’s time for Japan to return the “original Chinese” territories, openly announcing this in the 1992 year. In 1999, the situation was aggravated by the fact that large reserves of natural gas were found on the shelf and both countries began preparations for its production.
Japan at the end of 2010, even revised its military strategy, where now the main danger for Japan is not Russia, but the problem of the DPRK and the arms race, which China has unleashed. Therefore, Japan intends to re-equip the submarine fleet, Navy, Air Force and in every possible way to strengthen the friendship with the United States.
Korean peninsula
Korea since ancient times is considered the “vassal” of China. At present, China supports the DPRK regime and is developing trade and economic cooperation with both Koreas. But how China will behave if civil war breaks out on the peninsula and the DPRK communist regime collapses is unknown. As an option - the occupation of North Korea is possible.
Taiwan
Considered to be part of a united and indivisible China, reunification negotiations were going on from 1992 to 1999, but failed because the Taiwanese leadership stated that the PRC and Taiwan are “two countries on both sides of the Taiwan Strait”.
China began preparations for a military resolution of the issue. The United States and Japan currently support Taiwan, the United States is arming the army of Taiwan. But what will happen if the United States faces a serious internal crisis, or another war (Iran, Pakistan ...). The United States will not be able to protect Taiwan, resources will not be enough, and the American public will not understand: why protect the Chinese from the Chinese.
The Taiwanese elite is currently strengthening the military: Navy, development drones, anti-ship missiles, air defense, asks the US to sell new fighters.
The problem of the Spratly and Paracel Islands
Paracel Islands is a small uninhabited archipelago in the Sea of Tonkin, captured by China in the 1974 year, but it is claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.
The Spratly Islands is an archipelago in the southwestern part of the South China Sea, consisting of more than a hundred small islands, reefs and atolls, their area is less than 5 km². The total area of the district is more than 400 thousand km². The region is contested by 6 states - Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei.
The cause of the conflict is the strategic position of the islands, the region is rich in bioresources and the possibility of finding rich oil and natural gas deposits.
Some of the islands are occupied by military units from Vietnam, China, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Taiwan. Small skirmishes constantly occur, in 2008 the Philippines announced that they would “fight until the last sailor and marine” for the Spratly Islands. There is the possibility of a great war. All 6 states, in recent years, are strengthening the armed forces, especially the Navy, with increased attention being paid to underwater the fleetsea aviation.
Vietnam
The “old” adversary of China was under the rule of the Yellow Dragon for a thousand years, before the 10 century of our era. It is a rival of China for influence over its neighbors in Southeast Asia, there are territorial disputes - Spatli Islands and Paracel Islands.
While Vietnam was an ally of the USSR, there was no serious danger for him, but at present the level of threat has greatly increased. The Vietnamese leadership is strengthening its armed forces, seeking contacts with the United States (it is rumored that they are even ready to provide Cam Ranh as a military base), and strengthens cooperation with India.
India
China considers the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh to be a part of Southern Tibet and, accordingly, its territory. India wants China to return the territory - Aksai Chin. China is increasing economic, military cooperation with Pakistan, Bangladesh, which historically and culturally are part of Indian civilization. China is increasing its influence in the countries around India, which the Indian elite traditionally considers its sphere of influence - Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka.
And the seizure of Tibet, India does not like. In response, India is building up the strength of its armed forces, increasing cooperation with the United States and Russia. The possibilities of a big war are limited by the inaccessibility of the borders of China and India, the mountains.
Afghanistan
China believes that the province of Badakh-shan is "originally Chinese." But while in Afghanistan there is a continuous war, more attention is paid to economic expansion. Apparently, when the United States and its allies leave Afghanistan, China will be “senior” in this region and will receive the resources it needs without war. Afghanistan is destroyed, it needs huge investments in infrastructure rehabilitation, China has them.
Tajikistan
China claims to be 28 thousand square meters. km in the Eastern Pamir region. In January 2011, Tajikistan ceded 1 thousand square meters. km disputed territory. Given the virtually zero, compared with China, the military potential of Tajikistan, then sooner or later he will give up all the “disputed” territories, and maybe others (given the possibility of a civil war in the country). The only salvation for him is the return to Russia.
Kyrgyzstan
In 1996 and 1999, Kyrgyzstan transmitted about 12 square kilometers to China. of its territory, on this, for now, the PRC calmed down. But given the difficult situation of Kyrgyzstan: economic problems, a weak army, ethnic conflict (Kyrgyz-Uzbeks), the possibility of overrun of the Troubles from Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan is doomed to become the "prey" of the strong. As in Tajikistan, in the context of the global crisis, the only salvation of the people, from the "Chineseization", or radical Islamization, is the return to Russia.
Kazakhstan
The 1992-1999 years went through a diplomatic process, in its course, China received an 407 sq. km the territory of Kazakhstan. No longer does China raise the issue of territories, it is considered settled. But Kazakhstan is sparsely populated, the military potential is small, the border with China is huge - more than 1700 km. and how China will behave in the conditions of survival is understandable.
Mongolia
It is considered the continuation of Inner Mongolia and, accordingly, the natural continuation of China. In the 20 century, China did not join it only thanks to the intercession of the mighty Soviet Union. The PRC is interesting because with a huge territory it is almost deserted (2,7 million people), without real armed forces (about 9 thousand people).
Russia
In 1991, M. Gorbachev signed an agreement whereby the border began to run along the middle of the fairway of the Amur River. Prior to that, the border ran along the Chinese bank of the Amur River. 2004-2005 V. Putin gave China 337 square. km Russian land. This is a territorial question, as if settled, but "the appetite wakes up while eating." The PRC is at a crossroads and if the choice is made in favor of foreign expansion, Russia is the most likely “client”. So far, China is limited to the economic development of Russian territories and the settlement of practically empty territories of Siberia and the Far East.
The most likely first victims of Chinese expansion
The first victims of the Yellow Dragon will apparently be:
- Taiwan, by virtue of the principled position of the PRC, Taiwan is a part of Chinese civilization. Moreover, a peaceful outcome is possible - if the Taiwanese elite overpower their ambitions. If there is a military operation, the victims will be large, but I think the United States and the West will make some noise, but they will not really fight;
- the northern countries: Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, due to the fact that these are sparsely populated territories, with large reserves of resources and weak military potential (the main military units of Russia in the west, and the PRC will have time to solve all the issues of capturing Siberia and the Far East to how they can arrive at the scene of the fighting).
The attack on India, the PRC is not interesting, the theater of action is not suitable (mountains), the number of Indian army and its human reserves, almost the same as in China. Against India, China may conduct a limited operation to support its ally, Pakistan, if India strikes him.
The war with Vietnam, or any country in Southeast Asia, is not profitable. Raw materials from these countries are limited, the population is numerous, the army is strong. Therefore, China will leave these countries for later, possibly subordinate without war, seeing the fate of the northern neighbors of the Yellow Dragon, they themselves will become "vassals" of the PRC.
Japan, apparently, will be the last, sea captures quite difficult to hold. But given the dislike of the Chinese to the Japanese, their fate will be very sad, the population of the islands will be greatly thinned.
The peculiarity of expansion will be the factor that the Chinese elite will not spare either the soldiers or the equipment. In China, a serious demographic crisis, the "aging" of the population and an overabundance of young men, a shortage of girls. The more in battle the better, the “boil” of social tension will subside inside China. And the need for mass production of military equipment, weapons, will support the economy.
What can Russia do for its salvation?
- Diplomatically support the peaceful reunification of mainland China and the Chinese island of Taiwan.
- To increase the volume of economic cooperation, the crisis and social upheavals in the PRC is a signal that the beginning of the power expansion is very close. We need peace in China and the growth of the economy and the culture of its population.
Russian cultural expansion is needed - Russian language, cinema, education, literature.
- Strategic alliance with India, recognition of parts of Indian civilization for it - Pakistan, Bangladesh. Mutual aid in case of aggression of the PRC.
- Extensive military-technical and economic cooperation with Mongolia, the Korean states, the countries of Southeast Asia. Renewal of the alliance with Vietnam.
- Immediate restoration of the Pacific Fleet, a serious strengthening of the Far Eastern Group of Forces.
- A large-scale redevelopment program for Siberia and the Far East (based on the work of Yu. Krupnov), leveling out the demographic imbalance, when the majority of the population lives in the European part of Russia. The program to support the birth rate of Russian and indigenous peoples of Siberia and the Far East (at least 3-4 children per family).
- The Russian elite must show the Will to live, secretly warning China that an invasion of Russian lands and the sphere of influence of Russia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Mongolia) could lead to a limited strike with nuclear weapons on the rich coastal cities of China.
Sources:
Vasilyev L.S. Ancient China, in 3 volumes. M. 1995-2006.
Galenovich Yu. M. What the authors of the collection "China is not happy with" write about. M., 2010.
Krupnov Yu. The sun in Russia rises from the East. M., 2007.
Kulpin E.S. Man and nature in China. M ,, 1990.
Nepomnin O. E. History of China: The Age of Qing. XVII - the beginning of the XX century. M., 2005.
The territorial claims of Beijing: history and modernity. M., 1979.
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