Ukraine - Russia: mutual failure
One of the notable moments of the celebration of the 1025th anniversary of the Baptism of Russia, which smoothly passed on the Day of the Naval fleet, was the consecration of the bell in the temple in Chersonesos. There, as you know, Vladimir the Baptist himself was baptized, and the presidents of Russia, Vladimir Putin and Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych approached this event with all the pathos of solemnity. Or, if you like, solemn pathos. They were important in silence, walked slowly, turned to stone, where necessary, with their faces, made their faces smart, meek and mournful in the same place, overshadowed themselves with a cross, and even, when the time came, they struck a new bell ...And now, when even the echo of that chime was heard, Putin left, but Yanukovych stayed, would it not hurt anyone to figure out for whom that bell rang? As the organizer of the international conference “Orthodox Slavic Values is the Basis of Ukraine’s Civilization Choice,” timed to coincide with the celebration of the 1025 anniversary of the Baptism of Russia, and the inspirer of memorable “temniki” media recommendations for Viktor Medvedchuk, the issue is important and relevant. If only because Putin, I repeat, left, but Yanukovych remained, and it is important to know in what light Ukraine’s hereditary baptized lives and what awaits it in the near future. For example, in the light of dependence on Russian energy carriers, the topic of which would be cheaper and the salvation of the Ukrainian economy somehow dissolved into crimson bells, naval cries of “Hurray”, fireworks and inspirational speeches, from which their mouths acted like beautiful but sour. tart apples ....
Alas, it is necessary to ascertain, the Chersonesus bell almost the last time rang for both presidents. He actually marked the end of carnival, imitation diplomacy, with the help of which Moscow and Kiev over the past three years and a little have allegedly tried to build equal, friendly, mutually beneficial relations in all senses. They are deadlocked because Ukraine imitated friendship and did not go there, and Russia responded with the same imitation feelings, but did nothing to turn Ukraine towards itself, attract it, turn away from the wrong choice of path. In establishing new mutually beneficial relations, Ukraine and Russia have not done anything worthwhile, and this is a mutual fiasco of both presidents, Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych. They did not fulfill their main common task - they did not bring the two countries together. And two people, of course. They did not ensure mutually beneficial, equal and productive cooperation, about which so much and long talked. The reasons for this are many. And different - objective and subjective. But the fact remains: everything went into beautiful words, into a symbolic ritual, into nothing meaningful, effective, but not effective window dressing ...
The signing of the Association Agreement and the creation of a free trade area (FTA) between Ukraine and the European Union at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius may finally fix this fiasco of bilateral relations at the end of November this year. If an exchange of autographs takes place, then the Yavorivsky doctrine and other post-communist werewolves, who united with the newly-minted neo-Nazis in the process of changing the host, will finally win: for three hundred years we have been near Moscow, and now we will try near Washington. Brussels as the capital of “United Europe” is, as you understand, a beautiful but exaggerated simulacrum, a weak bureaucratic ersatz center of a collapsing organism, behind which the overseas sponsor, patron, defender and inspirer looms. This is the current Ukrainian elite who seeks for him under the “umbrella” (he felt sick when writing this phrase) that the pro-government, that the opposition ...
Putin’s visit to Ukraine was, of course, demonstrative. In Kiev, the president of Russia clearly showed where he wants to see Ukraine - in the Customs Union (CU) of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Arriving at the presidential invitation, but having devoted the entire 15 minutes to negotiations with a high-ranking vis-à-vis, Putin tried to stay away from Yanukovych. And then he went to the above-mentioned international conference of his godfather Medvedchuk, already baptized that by the court, almost like “opposition” Kiev “anti-European” journalists. At this event, Medvedchuk said that Ukraine, in the event of signing an association agreement, awaits the fate of reserving a collapsing Europe without a vote, but with obligations to strictly comply with all the "zahaganki" of the new owner. De-industrialization, de-sovereignty, depopulation, de-intellectualization (debilization) and de-democratization - this is what, following KT, prophesied Ukraine and Medvedchuk. Putin, apparently, agreed with him. He stated the decline in Ukrainian-Russian relations and highly praised the CU: “In the first quarter of this year, our trade with Ukraine fell by more than one percent on 17. In the countries of the Customs Union, it grew by 34% the year before last, by another 11% in the past, and in the first quarter of this year our growth was already 2-3%, despite the decline in the global economy. We have a constant rise. ” "Let's come to us!", - as if the GDP was saying. Although the type promised: "We will respect any choice of the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian state in the depth of participation in the integration processes that occur in the post-Soviet space."
In Sevastopol, the Russian president demonstrated who modern Russia is going to rely on. And that Russia is still developing along the path of an enlightened semi-civil militocracy *, more frankly professing the creed of Emperor Alexander III the Peacemaker, who loved to say in the circle of intimates: “In the whole world we have only two faithful allies - our army and navy. All the rest, as soon as possible, will turn against us. ” Whether Ukraine wants it or not, other Black Sea countries agree with it or not, but Russia's Black Sea fleet will develop, re-equip and retool with the most modern weapons - This is the quintessence of Putin’s visit to his sailors. And what is most surprising is that Russia has money for it, Putin’s words are not a bluff.
And today we can already say that Ukraine and Russia, developing and moving in parallel courses, nevertheless moved in different directions. Ukraine was gradually moving away from sentimental nationalism (the author of the definition was political scientist Anton Finko) with an emphasis on mov, embroidered sharovars and holidays for pro-European pragmatism, in which Kiev gradually abandoned its multi-vector approach and tended to the west. And in the east, more precisely in Russia, he only wanted with old promises and crafty vows of eternal friendship and fidelity "historical roots ”to get energy for a while at lowered non-market prices and thus get a break during the economic crisis. Kiev did not succeed in any of this. He did not receive cheap energy and is now falling into the arms of Europe by a powerless and foul-smelling kul, from which few will jump out to a better life and “universal values”. Those who already have accounts and “khatynki” in Europe. And he doesn’t want to lose them, but on the contrary, he wants to get guarantees that after Ukraine’s “stall” with a peeing boy, everything “acquired by overwork” in the sold and devoted “nenka” will remain untouchable in Europe.
Ukraine and Russia, developing and moving parallel courses, still moving in different directions. Ukraine gradually moved away from sentimental nationalism (the author of the definition is political analyst Anton Finko) with an emphasis on mova, embroidery and trousers for holidays to pro-European pragmatism, in which Kiev gradually abandoned multi-vector approach and leaned to the west
With Putin’s coming to the helm, Russia immediately declared that it was abandoning the abstract “brotherhood-sisterhood”, which had been cherished in the relations between Kiev and Moscow under the USSR, and chooses pragmatism: only what is useful is useful. To whom? Russia first. And over the years, this Putin's pragmatism became harder and harder, more and more directed. Russia agreed to pay not for abstraction, but for the implementation of its geopolitical and geo-economic plans and ideas. Now she is on the agenda - developing the CU into the Eurasian Union from 2015. Regarding Ukraine, when in 2004 year and five years after in Moscow they saw what anti-Russian and anti-Russian mug the glovarian “fraternal” nationalism of svidomites could turn into, Putin’s pragmatism seems to have resulted in the fact that he is not afraid of the deterioration of the situation in the former “sister” . Russia, so today it seems, is ready to observe (if not accelerate in the event of the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU?) The total collapse of Ukraine up to its territorial split. And when this happens, Russia will come and pick up what it needs in Ukraine. And the EU is unlikely to be able to help Ukraine with something - he doesn’t have enough money for himself, and then he will have to save some limitroph ...
In other words, Putin's pragmatism, under which cheap energy and gas-petrodollars are like a fool of candy wrappers, has outplayed the Ukrainian pragmatism from the very beginning and is now replaying, in which even European allusions turn out to be unrealizable illusions. That the Ukrainian government, that the opposition, ready to replace, has neither ideas nor people to offer a distinct course of development of the country. There is only a desire to lean against someone strong and rich, to profit at someone’s expense and at the same time to inflate everyone, to speculate something, to lie in a bad spell, to go to hell or trust, to do something by themselves. Previously, this channel is based on the situation, but now it is not channeling - the situation has changed ...
... What could be in the near future? Yes, anything. Ukraine at the last moment can refuse to sign the Association Agreement and return to the CU. Europe may still blush Ukraine, putting forward more and more overwhelming and overwhelming demands and conditions. Russia, as in the case of the NATO Membership Action Plan in Bucharest in 2008, can leverage its leverage in Europe and thwart the signing of documents in Vilnius. And consequently, the agony will last. And it can take quite a long time.
But the main conclusion is already obvious: Ukraine, as it was, will remain hovering over, as Zhvanetsky said, between the each-another space. She will swing over what is happening back and forth, like a disabled person in a rocking chair on a boardwalk platform in the Pyryta district station building. With each roll, inevitably risking that the platform will not stand and the wheelchair will collapse down. With all non-aromatic effects. And the longer Ukraine will swing back and forth, the more obvious its failure. In the literal and figurative sense ...
That is, you need to be determined. But, on the other hand, how, if in Kiev they are not mentally accustomed to this, and Moscow, Brussels and Washington are all tugging at and dragging the rope, not wanting to see it overflowing around the neck of Ukraine? ..
PS * According to Olga Kryshtanovskaya, director of the Institute of Applied Politics, head of the elite study sector of the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Wikipedia), militocracy reigns in Russia now, since about half of the leadership positions in federal authorities are occupied by security forces (in 1999 this proportion was only 13%).
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