Military Review

Syrian conflict - the path to the creation of a Kurdish state?

68
In July, 2013, a lot of events occurred, again prompting analysts and journalists to think about the imminent creation of a Kurdish state. The basis for the emergence of statehood can serve as the territory of Syria near the Turkish border, where the Kurdish militia fights against opposition fighters. Moreover, if the army of Bashar al-Assad is cramping the latter, the former are supported in the fight against the Islamists by both the SSA and the Turkish Kurdish Workers Party. The Turkish authorities are concerned that the war could spill overseas, which is fraught with the unification of Turkish and Syrian Kurds. Moreover, recently Kurdish leaders from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey met in Iraqi Kurdistan. Their meeting was held on the eve of a major conference.


Syrian conflict - the path to the creation of a Kurdish state?


A week ago, there were reports in the media about clashes between Kurds in northeastern Syria and Islamist radicals. Igor Isakinsky and Konstantin Volkov ("News") told that the fighting in the province of Cancer between the Kurds and Islamist opposition has become fierce. The Kurdish brigade militia captured the commander of the Islamic Emirate of Iraq and the Levant group Abu Musab, who, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, in the evening of July 21 was allegedly exchanged for 300 of captured Kurdish civilians.

The head of the permanent delegation of the Federation Council in the Asian Parliamentary Assembly, Rudik Iskuzhin, explained that the Kurds living along the Turkish border had previously taken advantage of the anarchy that had arisen, had established militia and established control over many settlements in the northeast, including even those dominated by the Syrian population. According to Iskuzhin, the goal of Syrian Kurds is to achieve wide autonomy.

An activist of the Kurdish democratic movement in Syria, Radwan Ali Badini, states:

“We helped create new administrative bodies in cities and villages. Without this, neither the courts nor the utilities worked here. Everything went peacefully - there were no clashes with either the regular army or the opposition. ”


A member of the opposition Syrian National Council, Mahmoud al-Hamza, says that part of the Kurds want democracy and preserve the integrity of Syria, and another part is referring to the example of Iraqi Kurdistan. According to al-Hamza, among the Kurdish militia fighting are soldiers who have been trained in the Iraqi peshmerga camps, as well as activists of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.

20 July in the world press there were reports of the capture of the city of Ras el-Ain by the Syrian Kurds. The city passed from the "Front of Nusra" under the control of the Kurdish militia.

"Euronews" indicates that the city and border checkpoints control the Kurdish self-defense forces. With the Turkish military clashes were not.

Later, the flag of the Kurdish Party of the Democratic Union (PYD) in Ras al-Ain on the morning of July 26 was replaced with the flag of the Kurdish National Council, notes IA "REGNUM" with reference to the agency "Doğan".

A week earlier, the Kurds made Ankara a “last warning”. In a written statement circulated on 19 July, the executive board of the Union of Kurdish Communities stated that the Turkish authorities are seeking to thwart the process of democratic settlement. Reported by IA "REGNUM" with reference to the agency Firat.

SKO criticized the government of Erdogan for not allowing independent doctors to treat the prisoner Abdullah Ocalan, as well as for failing to ensure the regular visit of Ocalan by the delegation of the Party for Peace and Democracy (BDP). The Kurdish movement has warned the ruling party of Turkey that the government will have to answer for the impasse in the process if it does not take concrete steps as soon as possible.

Moreover, the document notes that the Turkish government is making efforts to break the peace in the northern regions of Syria, controlled by Kurdish forces, by supporting armed groups there, such as the Al-Nusra Front. According to the Kurds, the Turkish authorities have the goal of eliminating the gains of the Kurdish people in this region.

Three days later, the BDP held a rally in Istanbul, which aimed to urge the government to move forward in the process of a Kurdish settlement. Reported by IA "REGNUM" with reference to "Doğan".

“If you are really persistent in the matter of this process, we want to see concrete steps,” said BDP deputy Sabahat Tuncel under a banner reading “Government, take a step.” - Worldwide, confidence-building measures are important in times of conflict. Without these steps, neither peace nor settlement are possible. ”

Tuncel said that the possible emergence of a new Kurdish autonomy in the north of Syria is not dangerous for Turkey.

As for the Syrian Kurds, they deny plans to create their own government. The secretary general of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party, Salih Muslim Muhammad, denied media reports that an independent Kurdish government was allegedly planned to be created in northern Syria, 21 reported in July IA "REGNUM".

The party leader said that the organization is now going to take a series of measures aimed at improving the welfare of the Kurdish population living in the north of the country. But the Kurds do not have any intentions concerning either the formation of their own government, or the implementation of a "split" from Syria.

However, on this score there are other opinions. Opposites.

As Olga Haldyz says ("Voice of Russia") Ankara is concerned that clashes between the fighters of the Free Syrian Army and the units of the Kurdish militia continue near the borders of Turkey.

The Turkish General Staff reported on the strengthening of security measures in the south-eastern borders of the country and on the implementation of a multiple response to shots from abroad "in accordance with the rules of use of armed force," and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey is forced to take measures that " are not directed against any particular group. "

Rushen Chakyr, a columnist for the Vatan newspaper, writes that история The region has examples of how leaders in Ankara, Tehran, Baghdad and Damascus forgot about the problems between themselves, as soon as the Kurds had the opportunity to get on their feet, and jointly developed a strategy against them:

“As a result of this, the Kurds have all the time been the injured party. However, in the 21st century, we are witnessing how the Kurds break this vicious circle. What is happening - first in Iraq, then in Turkey and, finally, in Syria - enables the Kurds to play the role of an independent actor on the regional scene. ”


Fighting on the Syrian territory between Kurdish troops and Islamists Turkish journalists analyze in conjunction with the meeting of the Kurdish leaders of Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria held yesterday in Iraqi Kurdistan. This meeting precedes a large-scale conference.

Roushen Chakyr called the territory in which Syrian Kurds live, Kurdish Palestine:

“The armed conflict that began in Seryökaniye (Syria) spread throughout the entire territory where the Kurds live, and made me forget all the contradictions that exist between them. Then, the PKK, then the leadership of Iraqi Kurdistan, declared its readiness to help the Syrian Kurds. All this suggests that “Rozhava” (the so-called Western Kurdistan, a Syrian territory populated by Kurds) for all Kurds has become a kind of Palestine. ”


And the journalist of the Turkish newspaper Milliyet, Hassan Pulur, believes that events in the region speak of laying the foundations of a “Federally Independent Kurdish State”.

It is difficult to judge how events will unfold further, but one thing is clear: the Kurds will strive to use the situation that has developed today in their favor. As for the possible reaction of the Erdogan government to the Syrian border victories of the Kurds, analysts have been writing about the non-publicized support of Islamists by Ankara for a long time, this is no secret to anyone. The double purpose of such support is not a secret - firstly, to counteract the troops of Assad, whom Erdogan called the “butcher” and the “murderer”, secondly, to weaken the militia of the Kurds. Obviously, the support of the anti-Syrian Islamist forces by Erdogan will continue, despite the expressed displeasure of the Union of Kurdish communities. At the same time, Erdogan is unlikely to enter into direct confrontation with Kurds: he has enough problems with Syrian refugees and mass protests that began on May 9th in Gezi Park. In addition, the government promised to settle the Kurdish issue, and now is the wrong time to give up its promises.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
68 comments
Ad

The editorial board of Voenniy Obozreniye urgently needs a proofreader. Requirements: impeccable knowledge of the Russian language, diligence, discipline. Contact: [email protected]

Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. My address
    My address 31 July 2013 07: 15 New
    -1
    And what is the opinion of the official Damascus?
    1. Tersky
      Tersky 31 July 2013 07: 34 New
      15
      Quote: Oleg Chuvakin
      Obviously, Erdogan’s support for anti-Syrian Islamic forces will continue, despite the expressed dissatisfaction with the Union of Kurdish Communities.

      Not only Kurds express dissatisfaction with Edrogan, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has turned Israel and Syria against him with his hostile actions and statements. Recently, he also managed to insult millions of Egyptians by rejecting their new government, formed after the military removed President Morsi from power, writes publisher and editor of The California Courier Harut Sassounian in the article "Erdogan managed to quarrel with both Arabs and Jews." ...

      “Despite Erdogan’s formal objection to the overthrow of, he said, the democratically elected President of Egypt, it is clear that he is most concerned about his own salvation, fearing the seizure of power by the Turkish armed forces, historically prone to coups. The University of Aleppo stripped Erdogan of the title of honorary doctor of international relations which was awarded to him in 2009, when Syria and Turkey enjoyed a short-term mutual sympathy.

      The head of the university, Khodr Orfali, accused Erdogan of inciting "conspiracies against the people of Syria" and of using force against demonstrators in Turkey. Following the loss of the Arab Prize, the Turkish Prime Minister may lose the award given to him by the American Jewish Congress in 2004. for "promoting peace between cultures".

      Last month, in an article in the Jewish monthly Commentery, Michael Rubin called on the Jewish Congress to revoke Erdogan's prize, describing him as "a leading Hamas fanatic, sponsor of terrorism and a destabilizing force in the region." Rubin also said that "Erdogan, while still in office of mayor of Istanbul, already had a past full of anti-Semitism and conspiracy theories."

      Details: http://www.regnum.ru/news/fd-abroad/armenia/1689273.html#ixzz2aadZYOiv
      If we add to this also the internal problems of Turkey in the light of the May events, we can safely assume that there is an intensive discharge of Edrogan not without the help of his counterpart, the constant strategist and founder of all world democracies and bouquet revolutions - the USA. Well, from the positive news:MOSCOW, July 31. / ITAR-TASS / The Russian Orthodox Church / ROC / is preparing to donate more than $ 1,3 million to help the residents of Syrian cities affected by the hostilities. Donations were collected throughout the month in all churches of the Russian Orthodox Church. Vasily Rulinsky, head of the press service of the Synodal Department for Church Charity and Social Service, told Izvestia newspaper about this. The funds collected in the dioceses of the Russian Orthodox Church are sent to the accounts of the Synodal Department for Church Charity, which coordinates the action. Upon completion of the church-wide collection, funds will be transferred to the Patriarch of Antioch and the whole East, John X, as well as to the Supreme Mufti of Syria, Ahmad Badr ed-Din Hassun.
  2. Belogor
    Belogor 31 July 2013 07: 20 New
    +6
    It is quite possible that Erdogan will greatly regret it. It will be a kind of reckoning for his position in the Syrian conflict.
    1. mnn_13
      mnn_13 31 July 2013 10: 53 New
      +6
      I think you're right. In my opinion, the activation of the Kurd factor is aimed at plunging the entire region into chaos. If Western geostrategies manage to break up the large states of the region and create Curdistan, which will be their puppet, this would be a real success for them. What is happening is not in the interest of either Turkey, or Iraq, nor Syria, nor Iran. Erdogan’s big mistake is that he pulled Turkey into a game which she won’t be able to win.
      1. alone
        alone 31 July 2013 12: 31 New
        +4
        There is a major geopolitical game. it is still unknown who and what will win. maybe the Turks promised the creation of a Kurdish state in the territories of Syria and Iraq without the disputed territories of Turkey? no one knows what they have in mind
        1. APASUS
          APASUS 31 July 2013 15: 28 New
          +1
          Quote: lonely
          There is a major geopolitical game. it is still unknown who and what will win. maybe the Turks promised the creation of a Kurdish state in the territories of Syria and Iraq without the disputed territories of Turkey? no one knows what they have in mind

          Yes, but Obama is more likely to play this card than Erdogan, and so far he has only been able to worsen his position. Although this can be included in the plan. It is unclear what the ultimate goal of the United States and whether there is a place for Turkey.
          1. alone
            alone 31 July 2013 20: 41 New
            +1
            There is definitely a Turkey base for NATO and the US in the region. Without Turkey, the United States will not be able to spend its dark affairs there.
            1. APASUS
              APASUS 2 August 2013 18: 24 New
              0
              Quote: lonely
              There is definitely a Turkey base for NATO and the US in the region. Without Turkey, the United States will not be able to spend its dark affairs there.

              Now there in the region thanks to NATO and the USA such a place for support bases has been freed up - I don’t want to choose!
              1. alone
                alone 2 August 2013 21: 34 New
                0
                all the same, it’s better to have a support base where it’s calm and no martyrs-kamikaze)))
    2. Rakti-kali
      Rakti-kali 31 July 2013 13: 57 New
      +2
      Quote: Belogor
      It is quite possible that Erdogan will greatly regret it. It will be a kind of reckoning for his position in the Syrian conflict.

      He has a difficult position that like a "broken birch" - and under the Americans you have to bend under your own Islamists, but the collapse of Syria is the first step towards the creation of an independent Kurdistan, including with the rejection of part of Turkey.
  3. omsbon
    omsbon 31 July 2013 07: 33 New
    10
    The Kurds have long dreamed of creating their own state, now they can do it! Erdogan greatly exaggerates his influence and his strength.
    1. ed65b
      ed65b 31 July 2013 08: 22 New
      +6
      Quote: omsbon
      The Kurds have long dreamed of creating their own state, now they can do it! Erdogan greatly exaggerates his influence and his strength.

      Yes, the Kurds have a unique opportunity to collect their land and build statehood. But Erdogan brewing porridge with the support of the terrorists did not even understand where he got into and what it would turn out for Turkey.
      1. MakSim51ru
        MakSim51ru 31 July 2013 08: 50 New
        +3
        Quote: ed65b
        Yes, the Kurds have a unique opportunity to collect their land and build statehood. But Erdogan brewing porridge with the support of the terrorists did not even understand where he got into and what it would turn out for Turkey.


        Alas, I don’t think that this will pass. First of all, because Kurdistan is chopping off the lands not only of Syria, but also of two allies of the USA - Iraq and Turkey. But here the situation is more complicated. To recall at least the fact that a country having unresolved territorial disputes cannot exist in NATO. But this is Turkey. Iraq is another problem. The overwhelming majority even negatively relate to the autonomy of Kurdistan, let alone independence.
        1. Fin
          Fin 31 July 2013 09: 28 New
          +3
          Why not. In my opinion, the formation of Kurdistan in the Northeast would be beneficial to Syria. Firstly: it would distract Turkey from Syria itself for a long time; secondly: all the same, Assad does not control this territory, and it is unlikely that he will be able in the near future. Let them cut a piece of land for them, for this they will drive out bandits from all over the North. It is necessary to meet and negotiate with them.
          1. alone
            alone 31 July 2013 12: 42 New
            +3
            Do you really think Assad will go to the collapse of the country to distract Turkey? After all, if Assad does not last, Syria will fall apart! tada what is the point of resisting so much?
          2. alone
            alone 31 July 2013 13: 43 New
            +2
            Do you think the Kurds will be able to do something that has not spoiled Assad? if the Kurds were so strong, they would have long ago thrown off the Assad. Kurds are not such divine angels. even under hafiz Assad, Kurds periodically created problems for Syria.
          3. kavkaz8888
            kavkaz8888 1 August 2013 01: 40 New
            0
            We also met with the Chechens and agreed. Until the "small, victorious ..." time has come to arrange. The situations are not entirely similar, but you can parallelize it.
        2. Theophanes
          Theophanes 31 July 2013 16: 12 New
          +2
          Quote: "The overwhelming majority even have a negative attitude towards the autonomy of Kurdistan ...." But nevertheless, there is already an autonomous region of Kurds in Iraq! The creation of an independent Kurdistan is real. But not only Iraq, Iran, Syria, but also Turkey will lose their lands. Loss of Kurdistan may threaten both Turkey and Iran with the loss of southern Armenia and southern Azerbaijan. Kurdistan is undoubtedly a US project. Chaos in the Middle East plays into the hands of the amers. And Turkey can lose a lot. Well, yes, she dear there. There was nothing to get into Syria.
      2. Professor
        Professor 31 July 2013 09: 29 New
        +4
        That rare case when I agree with you. The 40 millionth Kurdish people, who have their own identity, culture, language, deserve to have their own statehood.
        1. sergo0000
          sergo0000 31 July 2013 11: 23 New
          +2
          Quote: Professor
          That rare case when I agree with you. The 40 millionth Kurdish people, who have their own identity, culture, language, deserve to have their own statehood.

          This is of course! Where the states are there and Israel! You are not the first to wreak havoc and are engaged in the dismemberment of countries like Yugoslavia. am And the fact that this is laying yet another delayed action bomb in the East among the Arabs of the Kosovo type is in the interests of the Jews!
          In early January 2013, a Kurdish newspaper Rudaw published an interview with former American diplomat Peter Galbraith, author of The End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Made Endless War. In an interview, Galbraith urges the United States to bet on the Kurds: “I am very disappointed with US policy, and I think that the United States should recognize that Kurdistan is their best ally in the Middle East, and that this is the only region in Iraq that has the same values ​​and the goal with respect to democracy, compared to Maliki (i.e., Iraqi Prime Minister, Shiite), who is Iran’s closest ally in the world. That is why ... I will not work to strengthen the Iraqi government, but instead I will support Kurdistan more. ... I hope that the United States will change its policy and will become more supportive of Kurdistan. ”

          According to Galbraith, the US administration is in vain afraid when approaching Kurdistan to lose influence in Baghdad, since Iran has long been the main player in Baghdad (and if so, why the US needs an Iraqi state?) That’s why, according to Galbraith, the United States should change its benchmark in Iraq.

          Galbraith is convinced that now the Kurds are closer to independence than ever: “I think this will happen in my lifetime. Maybe in the next ten years. I think the best way to do this is through an agreement with the Iraqi government. Why does Baghdad manage a region that does not want to be part of this country? This is what matters. In addition, the issue of disputed territories must be resolved, because it is very difficult to achieve independence if you do not know what territory you are going to manage. Both sides - Baghdad and Erbil - need to compromise. In my opinion, a smaller independent Kurdistan is better than being stuck in Iraq forever. Perhaps it was important in the XNUMXth century to have borders, but we live in the XNUMXst century and borders are no longer important. ”

          Take a look at the last sentence of this statement! In a sense, it is worth the rest. It’s not in Kurdistan! It smells like the concept of the whole “Greater Middle East,” for which, it turns out, “borders are no longer important.” And, apparently, not only for him.

          Indeed, throughout the entire post-Soviet era, civil wars and external interference led to the dismemberment of the country only in Yugoslavia and Sudan. And in the Middle East, the pattern of state demarcation was maintained during all the many years of military campaigns. Now the American diplomat suggests not treating these borders as a “sacred cow” and starting the changes from Kurdistan. Which cannot but entail the redrawing of most of the Middle East region. Apparently, with the help of a scheme already familiar to the world community on the infamous map of the retired American colonel Ralph Peters.

          Map of the Middle East in the near future. Pentagon.
          1. Professor
            Professor 31 July 2013 11: 25 New
            +7
            Quote: sergo0000
            This is of course! Where the states are there and Israel! You are not the first to wreak havoc and are engaged in the dismemberment of countries like Yugoslavia.

            Dear, I do not represent official Israel or the USA here, but only my humble person.
            1. sergo0000
              sergo0000 31 July 2013 11: 43 New
              +3
              Quote: Professor
              Quote: sergo0000
              This is of course! Where the states are there and Israel! You are not the first to wreak havoc and are engaged in the dismemberment of countries like Yugoslavia.

              Dear, I do not represent official Israel or the USA here, but only my humble person.

              Yes yes yes. We know your well-paid person! wassat You haven't been kicked out of work yet, or have you switched to other sites with their propaganda translations!? Something lately you have not been able to see you as often as before! laughing Well, that's right. There are no beardless boys here, which you can ride on your ears with impunity. wink Here you are not there.
              1. Professor
                Professor 31 July 2013 11: 54 New
                0
                Quote: sergo0000
                Yes yes yes. We know your well-paid person!

                Are you paying me? Or do you know who pays me how much?

                They haven’t yet been kicked out of work, or have switched to other sites with their own propaganda translations !?

                I make a living by not writing articles or translating articles for this site, which explains my not frequent presence on this site.

                In general, you will be rude to replenish the Black List of boors, Natsik and trolls.

                PS
                Themselves, then do not write articles or translate "non-propaganda" articles? Lack of intelligence? It is always easier to criticize than to create ...
                1. sergo0000
                  sergo0000 31 July 2013 12: 23 New
                  +2
                  Quote: Professor
                  In general, you will be rude, replenish yourself the Black List of boors, Natsik and troll

                  Not scared, you know.
                  Quote: Professor
                  As you know, criticizing is always easier than creating ...

                  If your translation was not so selective, then there would be no complaints against you! I myself read it at first with pleasure and was grateful! But apparently times are changing and you along with it. hi

                  Quote: Professor
                  Themselves, then do not write articles or translate "non-propaganda" articles? Lack of intelligence?

                  Here I agree with you somewhere. In Soviet times in the North it was difficult to get even a full-fledged course in a comprehensive school, and even more so in foreign languages. But I think owning your knowledge of English, it would not be difficult for me to translate the article. Intelligence has nothing to do with it. This is not analytics! wink
                  1. Professor
                    Professor 31 July 2013 14: 00 New
                    -1
                    Quote: sergo0000
                    Not scared, you know.

                    I do not scare, but I warn.

                    Quote: sergo0000
                    But apparently times are changing and you are with her.

                    As before, I write articles exclusively on foreign technology, they will write about Russian without me. And I am translating articles that are interesting to me, and which do not have a clearly anti-Russian orientation. So nothing has changed during my stay on the site.

                    Quote: sergo0000
                    Here I agree with you somewhere. In Soviet times in the North it was difficult to get even a full-fledged course in a comprehensive school, and even more so in foreign languages. But I think owning your knowledge of English, it would not be difficult for me to translate the article. Intelligence has nothing to do with it. This is not analytics!

                    Do not believe me, but I did not study in special schools, but dangled with my parents to distant garrisons and military camps where foreign language teachers were not always there. He mastered languages ​​and not only English himself (they helped in the Navy, they forced him at the institute, and then life helped). In order to write an article, knowledge of English is not necessary - type literature, study it, analyze and present the material. I am sure that the administration will gladly post your article.
                    And again, for your information, I earn money in another area, and articles are a hobby. I place them exclusively on this site, although there have been offers from other resources. Recently, I write less and less since writing or translating articles takes a lot of time, and I have less and less motivation. hi
              2. grafrozow
                grafrozow 31 July 2013 20: 11 New
                +1
                Quote: sergo0000
                Here you are not there.

                Sorry, in the original, you are not here.
          2. alone
            alone 31 July 2013 12: 34 New
            +2
            there are a lot of inaccuracies in the map, what do you think, how can the province of Iran, eastern Azerbaijan with the city center of Tabriz be in Kurdistan. This map is another stupidity of Americans. they don’t even know which peoples live in which provinces
          3. The comment was deleted.
        2. tilovaykrisa
          tilovaykrisa 31 July 2013 16: 26 New
          +1
          Another state of Israel will succeed, only on the territory more.
      3. Scoun
        Scoun 31 July 2013 11: 17 New
        +3
        Quote: ed65b
        Erdogan brewing porridge with the support of terrorists until he did not even understand where he climbed

        Yes, and understand?
        Along the way, he, like a Saakashvulli, swallowed a handful of ecstasy and "beats his head" on a stone wall .... he is not sane along the way ... his statements cause only bewilderment.
  4. sergo0000
    sergo0000 31 July 2013 07: 35 New
    10
    The dubious enterprise is Kurdistan. I still understand the struggle for the independence of Ireland, Scotland, but the Kurds !?
    They never even had a history of the state! Even having grown stronger enough to oppose Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, they will subsequently quarrel among themselves for the right on whose territory the capital will be.
    After the First World War in 1920, under the Treaty of Sevres, a decision was made to create an independent Kurdistan. On October 10, 1921, the Kurds announced the creation of the Kingdom of Kurdistan with its capital in Sulaymaniyah. King of Kurdistan was Mahmoud Barzanji. A year later, rich deposits of oil were discovered in the Kurdish areas of northern Iraq, because of which Western countries refused to support independent Kurdistan. In response to this, in September 1922, the Kurds again proclaimed the independent Kingdom of Kurdistan. According to the Lausanne Treaty of 1923, Kurdistan was divided between Turkey, France and Great Britain. In July 1924, British troops put an end to the existence of the Kingdom of Kurdistan.

    That's their whole short story.
    In any case, they will need the recognition and support of world leaders. Who they hope this time. I am tormented by vague doubts that this is not Russia. winked Otherwise, why and by whom the whole fire on BV was started. Well, this is definitely not for us!
    1. Tersky
      Tersky 31 July 2013 07: 40 New
      +8
      Quote: sergo0000
      The dubious enterprise is Kurdistan.

      Sergey, hi ! Kurdistan has always been a bargaining chip in the geopolitics of empires ... Recall the USSR.
      1. sergo0000
        sergo0000 31 July 2013 07: 52 New
        +2
        Quote: Tersky
        Quote: sergo0000
        The dubious enterprise is Kurdistan.

        Sergey, hi ! Kurdistan has always been a bargaining chip in the geopolitics of empires ... Recall the USSR.

        So am I about the same! Good day Victor! hi
    2. ed65b
      ed65b 31 July 2013 08: 24 New
      +2
      Quote: sergo0000
      That's their whole short story.

      You know, in the post-Soviet space there are a lot of such under-states. nonetheless, they exist and are building their future.
      1. sergo0000
        sergo0000 31 July 2013 09: 09 New
        +2
        Quote: ed65b
        Quote: sergo0000
        That's their whole short story.

        You know, in the post-Soviet space there are a lot of such under-states. nonetheless, they exist and are building their future.

        That’s why they are alive and building what’s in the post-Soviet! They somehow use someone’s protection and patronage. If they’re not with us, then with the USA and their mongrels. You understand geopolitics. recourse
    3. hrych
      hrych 31 July 2013 11: 57 New
      +3
      But, Colleague, doubts are still plaguing. Basically the fire of B.V. into the hands of Russia, first of all. The high price of hydrocarbons, directly related to this fire, allowed the Russian Federation to get out of the economic life. Bent over "Nabucco", largely for this reason. The defeat of Iraq and Libya was directly approved by Moscow. Then the fire went not according to Washington, but according to our scenario, the example of Syria, which is supported exclusively by the forces of our diplomacy. During this time, the regime in Egypt has already changed several times, Turkey, the direct geo-enemy of the Russian Federation, staggered. The Islamist International is not in our Caucasus, but on the contrary, Russian speech with a Chechen accent is heard in BV. Many do not associate, but the unrest in Egypt, which swept away Rais, began with an increase in the price of bread caused by the maratorium on the sale of grain from Russia, of course, according to GDP due to our drought. Here, from the creation of Kurdistan of Russia, only pluses will weaken, if our old enemy Turkey does not collapse, British oil ties with the Sunni Arabs will be shaken, which will turn Britain into a miserable, evil backwater, etc. So that the "hands of Moscow" in Kurdistan, let's say not may not be.
      1. sergo0000
        sergo0000 31 July 2013 12: 07 New
        +4
        Quote: hrych
        But, Colleague, doubts are still plaguing. Basically the fire of B.V. into the hands of Russia, first of all. The high price of hydrocarbons, directly related to this fire, allowed the Russian Federation to get out of the economic life. The defeat of Iraq and Libya was directly approved by Moscow. Then the fire went not according to Washington, but according to our scenario, the example of Syria, which is supported exclusively by the forces of our diplomacy. During this time, the regime in Egypt has already changed several times, Turkey, the direct geo-enemy of the Russian Federation, staggered. The Islamist International is not in our Caucasus, but on the contrary, Russian speech with a Chechen accent is heard in BV. Many do not associate, but the unrest in Egypt, which swept away Rais, began with an increase in the price of bread caused by the maratorium on the sale of grain from Russia, of course, according to GDP due to our drought. Here, from the creation of Kurdistan of Russia, only pluses will weaken, if our old enemy Turkey does not collapse, British oil ties with the Sunni Arabs will be shaken, which will turn Britain into a miserable, evil backwater, etc. So that the "hands of Moscow" in Kurdistan, let's say not may not be.

        It is always possible to come to an agreement or go to armistice with opponents of still independent states. But what should you do if all of these states suddenly experience war and chaos! And as you know, it is almost on our borders. The only country in NATO is Turkey, the rest are or otherwise become our allies. Therefore, wishing the Kurds of statehood at this historical moment in time, we thereby substitute our allies and give them into the hands of chaos and war, which is so beneficial to the USA and Israel!
        1. hrych
          hrych 31 July 2013 12: 35 New
          +3
          For example, Colleague, one of our ally, Syria, will suffer from the creation of Kurdistan, but, oddly enough, in the case of Syria, letting go of the Kurds in the world will essentially save its entire remaining territory, because the Turkish front will automatically bend. Everything is clear with Iraq, Turkey is a karachun, but Iran is not our ally, in the literal sense, is more likely an economic partner in some way, but also a great competitor for hydrocarbon control, say in the future, when the ocean engulfs the Anglo-Saxons in the Caspian Sea strong nuclear Iran fuck is not needed.
          1. sergo0000
            sergo0000 31 July 2013 12: 58 New
            +2
            It’s all so, of course, but in this case, allowing the United States and Israel to dismember the BV, we automatically become their accomplices and automatically switch to the camp of enemies for all these countries, and then of course the bombing of Iran and Syria, the complete destruction of Iraq, will become beneficial to us. winked And from local conflicts, war is turning into a global one! Do we need it !?
            Yours!
            1. hrych
              hrych 31 July 2013 13: 16 New
              +5
              And, with respect, to you!
          2. alone
            alone 31 July 2013 23: 54 New
            +1
            Iran is Russia's ally in Syria only because the Iranian axis is now being decided in the Middle East. If Assad is thrown off, Iran will lose Syria, and hezbollah will most likely be defeated as a military-political structure. Iranians are painfully cunning. And in diplomacy some
      2. alone
        alone 31 July 2013 13: 07 New
        +6
        Nabucco stooped over the blogger to the fact that Azerbaijan and Russia found a common language how not to harm each other in the economic zone. which I think is the right approach. It would always be like that. we live here nearby, and Westerners are far away. And what is happening in Syria in the hands of Russia is the truth in this. Russia holds on to Syria. if they throw off Assad, they will lay a pipeline from Qatar to Europe through Syria. the Arabs will push it much cheaper than you and we. That's why Russia needs Syria. That I think is quite normal. Economic interests should also be protected.
  5. Valery Neonov
    Valery Neonov 31 July 2013 07: 39 New
    +3
    hi How confused there is, it is not in vain that they say that the East is a delicate matter, and now it seems that there is no time for "verbal equivocations." The Kurds will win back on Erdogan and a new confrontation will begin; and everything is quietly moving north ...
  6. KazaK Bo
    KazaK Bo 31 July 2013 07: 56 New
    +7
    The main thing is to "rip" SYRIA! How? All means are good here ... including the formation of a new state at the expense of the territory of SYRIA. Everyone was against the creation of a Kurdish state, and now it is clear that "the time has come to satisfy" the aspirations of the Kurdish people under a new sauce. But it is not clear ... if these aspirations of the people are to be satisfied, then it is necessary to do it at the expense of the territory of TURKEY and IRAQ ... Why is this not wanted in BAGHDAD AND ISTANBUL?
    Double standards again !!!
    1. sergo0000
      sergo0000 31 July 2013 11: 48 New
      +2
      Quote: KazaK Bo
      Double standards again !!!

      Quite right! And .... "New World Order"! hi
    2. alone
      alone 31 July 2013 16: 28 New
      +1
      There will be no new division of borders. Geopolitically, it is unprofitable for anyone. Just there is a section of influences in the region. Do you think the Amers will allow the collapse of Turkey? This is their main ally in the region. Losing it is unprofitable. And the region has the largest military base of Amers in Turkey.
      in Incirlika. cameras won't do it. they are not as stupid as you think
  7. borisjdin1957
    borisjdin1957 31 July 2013 07: 57 New
    +3
    from the Don.
    The Kurds will be able to create a state-grandmother in two said! But the Turks will drink blood, how to give drink. Assad, too!
  8. serge-68-68
    serge-68-68 31 July 2013 08: 02 New
    +6
    There will be no Kurdistan. At best, Syrian Kurds will gain autonomy if Assad sits in place. If he doesn’t, Turkey will not allow Kurdish autonomy at its borders.
    1. ed65b
      ed65b 31 July 2013 08: 29 New
      +1
      Quote: serge-68-68
      There will be no Kurdistan. At best, Syrian Kurds will gain autonomy if Assad sits in place. If he doesn’t, Turkey will not allow Kurdish autonomy at its borders.

      I think that at this stage the autonomy is sufficient for the Kurds, but in general for the time being we are talking about the survival of both the Kurds and the other peoples of Syria.
    2. sergo0000
      sergo0000 31 July 2013 11: 52 New
      +1
      Quote: serge-68-68
      There will be no Kurdistan. At best, Syrian Kurds will gain autonomy if Assad sits in place. If he doesn’t, Turkey will not allow Kurdish autonomy at its borders.

      This is how the entire policy of the United States and Israel is based. The main thing is to wear down and blackmail all the dissenting governments of these countries with the "Kurdish question"!
      But by and large this question could be solved only if there weren’t such countries on the world map as the United States and Israel !!!
  9. deputy ___ watered
    deputy ___ watered 31 July 2013 08: 03 New
    +2
    If, of course, they agree with the "empire of good", that is, a variant of the Kosovo scenario. (This is me about the creation of a Kurdish state) Then the Turks can say that Assad is their "friend" (by blocking the border for example)!
  10. pinecone
    pinecone 31 July 2013 08: 12 New
    +2
    Putting together an independent Kurdistan will not be easy. Suffice it to say. that the Kurdish people living in the masses in the territories of four Middle Eastern countries still retain their clan structure, do not have a single language and use two types of written graphics: Latin letters in Turkey, and Arabic script in Iraq, Iran and Syria.
    By the way, at one time, according to the instructions of Stalin, who favored the Kurds, a writing based on the Cyrillic alphabet was created for the Kurdish population living in the USSR (Transcaucasia).
    1. ed65b
      ed65b 31 July 2013 08: 28 New
      +1
      Quote: pinecone
      Putting together an independent Kurdistan will not be easy. Suffice it to say. that the Kurdish people living in the masses in the territories of four Middle Eastern countries still retain their clan structure, do not have a single language and use two types of written graphics: Latin letters in Turkey, and Arabic script in Iraq, Iran and Syria.
      By the way, at one time, according to the instructions of Stalin, who favored the Kurds, a writing based on the Cyrillic alphabet was created for the Kurdish population living in the USSR (Transcaucasia).

      It’s okay, the clan system in our former republics has been preserved since the times of the USSR, and the written language in Russia and the beginning of the USSR was Cyrillic and Latin and Farsi rallied, we even trained, it would be the desire of the people and skillful leaders.
  11. vladsolo56
    vladsolo56 31 July 2013 09: 16 New
    +6
    It’s easy to declare the creation of an independent state, it’s difficult to fulfill, a simple example is Abkhazia, South Ossetia. If there weren’t Russian bases there, such independent states would not live even a couple of years. If the Kurds are not fools, they will perfectly understand that what they have already achieved, the widest autonomy, is enough. That under the wing of Syria after stabilization, they are much safer. Moreover, the territories inhabited by Kurds are administratively, energetically, economically connected with Syria. Only in words is it so simple to disconnect and become independent, A normal person, especially a politician, understands that for such small entities, independence is just a mirage.
    1. grafrozow
      grafrozow 31 July 2013 22: 09 New
      -1
      Quote: vladsolo56
      A normal person, especially a politician understands that for such small entities, independence is just a mirage.

      And if for simple reasons, every gopher considers himself an agronomist. There are only two countries - Russia and the USA, who can afford anything they want, and if some Honduras is allowed to play independence, then only until he really believes in their independence, and immediately back to the stall. Roughly speaking, but this is our reality.
  12. eplewke
    eplewke 31 July 2013 09: 34 New
    +5
    Kurds are a people without nationality, state and capital. Assembling your own state on the territory of four states is obviously a disastrous business. As mentioned above - maximum autonomy, and that is a big question. One thing pleases me, they kick the "opposition" militants. The more these Al-Nusra are buried in the ground, the better for Assad. At least Kurdish autonomy is not world jihadism. Of two evils choose the less. Let them wet the bearded men. I am for!
  13. a52333
    a52333 31 July 2013 09: 39 New
    +2
    In any case, Erdogan will now "ricochet". Assad, on the other hand, will find it difficult to join the Kurds if they want to secede: firstly, they are almost allies, secondly, from a military point of view, you cannot put pressure on them, the liberals will raise a howl about genocide. The option is the broadest autonomy.
    1. alone
      alone 31 July 2013 16: 15 New
      +3
      of the Kurds, Assad is an ally, like a brother of the Americans to the North Koreans)))) Kurds are fighting the bearded men only because the bearded men set out to create a "Shama" caliphate there and include the Kurdish regions there! where were the Kurds when the bearded ss took control of the north of Syria? Assad withdrew his forces from the Kurdish areas for a reason. I knew that just a little, the Kurds would stab in the back
  14. Constantine
    Constantine 31 July 2013 09: 59 New
    +1
    The question is very ambiguous since the situation is not stable and to predict anything, and in particular the creation of a Kurdish state, is like poking a finger at the sky, by and large. However, if they help Assad to slaughter the militants, it is quite possible that they will not be officially supported in the matter of reunification with the Turkish Kurds, and they will also give autonomy.

    It’s too early to talk about such prospects. Too early. The militants are still a serious force, and NATO can still fly off the coils and then all these forecasts will not have any weight at all. sad
  15. Micex
    Micex 31 July 2013 11: 31 New
    +2
    but with the Kurds, in my opinion, one of the most dangerous moments. This people, if it can agree among themselves (since there are also many contradictions within them), can set fire to the entire Middle East at once, since they live in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
    The Kurds will finally quarrel these countries, and this may be the reason for a serious conflict between the Islamic countries of the Middle East, which, in principle, fits into the plans of the West and Israel. They will support the Kurds with all their might, which, in principle, they do.
  16. Essenger
    Essenger 31 July 2013 13: 52 New
    +6
    Kurds are the fourth largest people in the BV, after the Arabs, Turks and Persians. And strangely enough, they have problems with everyone. Naturally, the Jews bring them to the fore so that the Arabs, Persians and Turks sort things out with the Kurds and “forget” about Israel.
  17. tilovaykrisa
    tilovaykrisa 31 July 2013 13: 58 New
    +2
    The Turks themselves made porridge, they always had problems with the Kurds, and now there is chaos on the border, on the one hand the Kurds on the other, the Islamists on the other are embittered Syrians .... Assad will make it clear to the Kurds that they have a chance to gain autonomy in Syria, at least until it destroys the last Islamist, and after that he will deal with the Kurds, maybe the truth will give autonomy to spite the Turks.
    1. alone
      alone 31 July 2013 16: 19 New
      +3
      Turks have problems with the PKK with their supporters. half of the Turkish presidents by nationality were Kurds or from mixed families. And not all Kurds support the RPK in Turkey, far from all
      1. tilovaykrisa
        tilovaykrisa 31 July 2013 16: 24 New
        0
        So what did these presidents fail to create a free Kurdistan ?? Look how our Khrushchev took and presented the Crimea.
        1. alone
          alone 31 July 2013 20: 48 New
          +1
          being a Kurd and a citizen of Turkey does not mean that becoming a president, one must dismember the state. Turks are not stupid either. the president doesn’t decide anything, the parliament and the government decide everything there
  18. Vlad Gore
    Vlad Gore 31 July 2013 14: 14 New
    +2
    Turkey has never been a friend of Russia. And so it is necessary to help the emergence of an independent Kurdish state. Moreover, the appearance of such a state will weaken the position of Turkey (NATO country) in the region. But the position of Iran will strengthen. Since the Kurds and Persians are kindred peoples. smile
    1. Micex
      Micex 31 July 2013 15: 36 New
      +2
      nothing like that - the Kurds want their own state, having pinched off a piece from all states. The more freedom you give them, the more they want to have and, thus, they will begin the struggle "for the liberation of the primordial territories." And, instead of development, the states there will receive constant military action.
      If we look at the situation through the prism of "annoy the Turks" - then yes, of course, you are right. and from the point of view of stabilizing the region, it is a dead end.
    2. alone
      alone 31 July 2013 16: 20 New
      +1
      Kurds and Persians, albeit related peoples. Iranians no less than Turks are fighting against Kurds on the western borders of Iran. there are constant skirmishes and operations of specialists
      1. tilovaykrisa
        tilovaykrisa 31 July 2013 16: 28 New
        +1
        Something everyone has been fighting lately, the whole Middle East is in a fever, for the sake of variety, they would have put off their weapons for a while, but drank tea.
        1. alone
          alone 31 July 2013 20: 48 New
          0
          ambitions do not allow))))
  19. Druid
    Druid 31 July 2013 16: 44 New
    +3
    Quote: sergo0000
    Map of the Middle East in the near future. Pentagon.


    It’s as old as the world, but not only the States, but also their opponents achieve what is shown on the map.
    In addition, Kurdish movements were supported by both the USSR and modern Russia, as well as Israel and the USA and Europeans. At the same time, each one pursues its own goals, but in fact, despite the supply of arms to modern Iraq, the same States will not allow the current Shiite leadership to wage war with Kurdistan, which by the way is no less successfully arming itself from oil revenues.
    The fact that Iraq will be divided into three parts according to national and religious principles was understandable from the very beginning, it remains to wait a bit so that all that is already de facto takes shape de jure.
    I think the fate of Iraq awaits Syria as well - separation according to national and religious grounds, that is, NOTHING NEW. As soon as everything is decided with Syria, Iran is on the agenda, after which the formation of borders in the region, as shown on the map, will be completed. By and large, this will give the region only stability, that is, the States are trying not only to make countries their vassals, but also to deprive outside leverage of pressure on the region based on contradictions of a national and religious nature.
    For Russia, this is fraught with the fact that the States will gain control over the region, which is competitive with Russia - the export of hydrocarbons. The states will therefore be able to put pressure on Russia at any time, since Russia's budget still depends on hydrocarbon prices and their export volume. Does it resemble anything? ...
  20. faraon
    faraon 31 July 2013 16: 52 New
    +2
    As for the Kurdistan, Assad should do the maximum that Kurds should be given autonomy on the border with Turkey. By doing this, he can protect himself from Turkey for a while or maybe for a long time. If Assad gives land for the creation of the new state of Kurdistan, he will create a precedent, which in the end will lead to a new inter-regional conflict, now it will not be a fragmented opposition but the Kurds, a cohesive clan-family system.
    1. alone
      alone 31 July 2013 20: 50 New
      0
      Once Assad gives autonomy to the Kurds, Syria will fall apart like a house of cards. Do you know how many peoples live there?
  21. michajlo
    michajlo 31 July 2013 21: 34 New
    0
    Good day to all!
    Very interesting notes were written by forum users on this article, which I put a plus!
    The problem of the Kurds and their as yet unfulfilled desire to get their own state will not disappear itself, and indeed it can only be repeated the well-known expression "The East is a delicate matter."
    That the topic and interests of the Kurds, the new state on the part of and on the borders of 4-5 other states - it really is multi-way chess game with an unpredictable result and many possible military bloody stalemates !?
    The current autonomy of the Kurds in Syria is perhaps the most reasonable option for maintaining the "status quo" throughout the BB.
    As we all see the peace and solidarity of the Arab states against Israel, the United States, Israel, Great Britain, and perhaps France, interfere.
    So the options and secret calculations and prepared or already implemented Western geopolitical plans there is definitely a lot to change the situation in BV.
    The fact that Syria, the Kurds and other states are not indifferent to Russia is understandable. In Russia (and when the USSR) Kurds lived and live, citizens of the Russian state.
    And unlike the United States, which does not border the BV countries, Russia as the successor of the USSR has not only their rights to their opinion, but also the obligation to maintain peace in the region.
    In addition, Russia is not Israel, and with all the gossip of diplomatic covert games, it is not interesting light "war bonfires" at their southern borders.
    It is clear to many of them that in Chechnya and the entire NC and the Caucasus as a whole, under the banner of the "Muslim holy war," Arab instructors and organizers are recruiting young people to play the role of "cannon fodder" for dollars from the OAU, Qatar and others under the strict guidance and protection of Amer. special services.
    It will be very funny to see how, after 5-10 years, the sparks of war, which from the 90s in the Caucasus and the BV dissipate the OAU, Kuwait, etc. - will burn their palaces and lands.
    Indeed, in history it has already happened more than once that "whoever will go against us with a sword and will die by the sword himself!"
    Why I do not exclude such a turn of events.
    And the Kurds themselves will probably still live in 5-6 states, where they will be given appropriate autonomy within their national framework. powers or decades of clandestine struggle for Kurdistan, will lead to the creation of a new statehood, as here already the forum users wrote and analyzed the consequences.
  22. Alexandr0id
    Alexandr0id 1 August 2013 00: 53 New
    0
    for all the seeming delirium of my idea, I can say that Turkey itself is probably aimed at creating an independent Kurdish state, consisting of Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan. only the independence of this hypothetical state formation is assumed to be severely curtailed - in fact, it is seen as a Turkish protectorate, economically, transport and politically completely dependent on Turkey. the war between the Syrian Islamists and Kurds, as well as Iraq and the Kurds (in the future) should definitely throw the Kurds into Turkish embrace, and in fact into dependence (Barzani is already on this path). Turkish Kurds, looking at all this "independent" hemorrhoids of their fellow tribesmen, as well as comparing their own and their economic situation, should very much doubt the need to join the poor and dangerous independent Kurdistan. it seems to me that this particular plan is now being implemented. Is this why Ocalan went to the world and from prison convinced his supporters to curtail their activities in Turkey and move to neighboring countries?
  23. Siberian
    Siberian 1 August 2013 02: 25 New
    0
    Quote: lonely
    There is definitely a Turkey base for NATO and the US in the region. Without Turkey, the United States will not be able to spend its dark affairs there.

    It's right. The USA has been holding bases there since ancient times. You can jump from Turkey, even to the north, even to the south.