Military Review

On the revolutionary situation in Russia

On the revolutionary situation in RussiaIn recent days, quite a lot of people began to reflect on the notorious "Navalny business." Who gave the command, why they planted it, if they let it go, etc. This is more of a tactic, but today it makes sense to talk more about strategy.

The fact is that the current Russian situation simply to the point of madness reminds the Russian Empire of the 1916 year. Then a situation was created in the same way that everyone was unhappy with. Peasants and workers understood that they had no chance to improve their situation in principle, the nobles were furious that the emperor did nothing to curb embezzlers who were close to the imperial court, etc. As for the emperor, he also did not really know what to do, because any sudden movement only worsened his personal position.

If we look at the current situation, we will see that everything is also very similar, because both the youth and the majority of the population understand that there are no chances for improvement, and even economic growth, which has somehow compensated for those troubles which they received - was replaced by a recession.

Embezzlers cannot stop simply because they cannot stop. The highest political leadership of the country cannot start fighting with embezzlers, because this will inevitably cause a sharp attack of a top-level brawl that can cost anyone’s heads.

Theoretically, this situation can go on as long as you like, but: then the war was a stimulant of events. Today, as it may sound strange, there is also an incentive. I am inclined to believe that this stimulus is the policy of the government of D. Medvedev, who has already got everyone and the degree of inadequacy of which already reaches some extreme values. A classic example is the reform of the Academy of Sciences. I have already said something: the days are gone when Putin could refer to the fact that he was like nothing, and Medvedev was to blame for everything. Nobody is serious about Medvedev. Public opinion sounds like this: Peter the Great built, Stalin built, and this one came and flushed everything down the toilet. Therefore, in the current situation, I am not sure that Putin can afford to put his reputation in dependence on such an inadequate person as Medvedev. Well, respectively - the embezzlers surrounded by Medvedev himself, who do not even think about any policy, they would only be privatized, here and now.

And in this situation, it is abundantly clear that the fate of the Medvedev government hangs in the balance. And this means that the key moment of today's political struggle is which of the clans will take the place of the prime minister. And, accordingly, it will receive clear preferences of conservation in the conditions of economic recession.

I tend to think that the whole история with Navalny, and many other stories — well, for example, the notorious “Yakunin fur-store” —this is also a consequence of this very fight. Yakunin is a candidate for Medvedev’s place, which means they are beating him. Those people who are not candidates for this place, no matter how many storage facilities they have, are simply uninteresting. And thus we see that the tension in our country is increasing sharply, and it is associated with this temporary factor. Since Putin cannot wait for long, because Medvedev’s actions threaten his own rating, it means he will make a decision for a long enough period, which will allow one of the pressure groups to get clear preferences in the conditions of the upcoming serious recession, and this can be a decisive factor in the question of who will remain and who will be forced to permanently leave the political arena.

Therefore, it seems to me that even before the end of this year, this fight will turn into an open form. The point here is not about losing or winning ten percent, but about losing or winning everything at all.

An additional factor is the tension in the world. The Snowden case is a clear fight between a number of financial elites and China, and this fight is also limited in time. Only here the main prize is not the post of the chairman of the Russian government, but the post of the Fed chairman. It is already absolutely obvious that the group behind which the IMF, the World Bank and a number of the largest transnational banks stand, are moving to this post the famous US corrupt official Larry Summers, a close friend of Chubais and one of the organizers of Russian privatization, closely associated with the government of Medvedev and the Central Bank.

So: if Larry Summers comes to power, then some people will suffer serious damage in the United States, and if not, then others, the IMF and banks close to it. Here, too, there is a fight to the last soldier, and among these soldiers are Russian liberals in the Central Bank and the government. A key lever of pressure on Obama, who, in fact, should call the new head of the Fed, is the election of November 2014. That is, here is the key point - somewhere next spring, when by the end of spring Obama must be presented arguments against which he will not be able to argue. Most likely, this is the threat of substantial financial destabilization.

And this threat, which is imposed on a very strong fight with us, it further enhances the instability that takes place. I am inclined to believe that many problems both in our country and in the West will be revealed in less than a year - until the end of next spring.
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