What do you think about the situation in the Caucasus?
- If you are talking about the Caucasus in the context of Russia, then the deadlock is complete! The abyss is deepening, ethnic republics will disappear, and, most importantly, the population is beginning to slowly understand and mentally prepare, even the officials.
- How to prepare?
- People begin to think, understand that the chaos can not continue indefinitely. And they see that Russia is not able to restore order. Misunderstanding increases between regions and the center. It must end. Those who have already realized that this will be the end, are preparing themselves for the worst. There is an understanding that the feds will not let go of the southerners. Someone is waiting for the war, there are young people who are preparing for it, ordinary people just wait and hope for the best, maybe they will get around, the more prosperous, who understand the situation well, for example, from businessmen, are slowly transferring business from Russia abroad, buying real estate - who in Europe, some in the UAE, some in Turkey, etc., in case of waiting out. Well, of course, there are many of those who blindly believe in Russia.
- What will happen to the Caucasus after the withdrawal of Russia?
- In my opinion, the first time order will not be! Everything will depend on regional elites, on their ability to influence those who participated in the confrontation with Russia. From the participants of the resistance themselves, from their ability to adequately assess the current new reality, as well as from the powers that want to participate in establishing contacts with new political entities. The Caucasus will not be united in terms of a single state, the Emirate will not work, but there will be a good basis for unity. The biggest problem, I think, will be to subordinate all armed groups to one command and convince them not to resist the quartering of NATO bases in opposition to Russia.
Otherwise, Russia will stick its nose to infinity, and these are new wars and endless chaos in which we have been living for at least 200 years.
- I do not think that NATO will want to go to the Caucasus.
- NATO in the person of the United States, in any case it will do, it is necessary to cut off Russia from the Middle East as far as possible.
- And how do you feel about the Emirate?
- The emirate is a temporary phenomenon, created in order to materialize the ideological rationale for the war of all Caucasian peoples against Russia. Going beyond the purely Chechen war.
Like most - 95% Ingush - I do not think this is something serious.
- You are not exaggerating? In Ingushetia, a strong underground.
- Of course, the underground in Ingushetia is strong, but in how many percent of the participants is it expressed? No more than 1% of the total population are active, another percentage of 4-5 helps them, anyway, a lot of them simply sympathize. But even among the members of the underground there is no consensus about the Emirate after the liberation of the Caucasus.
- But after all, the Emirate is the only organized armed force in Ingushetia and in the Caucasus in general.
- Yes it is. The Imarat simply has no alternative, and no one is looking for it. The one who suffered from power or injustice, or came to a purely ideological point to the need to fight with this evil, and picks up weapon - automatically becomes imaratchik, although, perhaps, he does not really sympathize with them. But absolutely all armed people are deeply religious people.
There are among them those who realize that it will be difficult to fashion something really systematized from the Emirate. But at the present moment no one talks about this, since it will interfere, at this stage, within the resistance itself.
- And how will the Ingush relations with the Ossetians develop in the event of Russia's withdrawal?
- Everything is difficult with Ossetians, more precisely, it is difficult for Ossetians. If Russia leaves the Caucasus - Ossetians will go along with it, the Ingush are no longer limited to the demand for the return of the Prigorodny District, those who hold weapons in their hands want a complete territorial rehabilitation, i.e. all of Ossetia.
If Moscow leaves them, the Ossetians do not have any resources to keep "their" territory.
- Do you think that the whole of Ossetia is an Ingush territory? Completely all?
- Of course, the Ossetians did not appear yesterday in the Caucasus, and they lived somewhere. They were constantly under someone's protectorate, they were divided among themselves by different Ingush societies and Georgians at different times. Some of the Ingush with them assimilated, we remember it well. If the Ossetians had not undermined relations with the Ingush during the Soviet era, they would have had a chance today to remain at some of their places, but in this situation they have no chance. Therefore, I believe that the whole of Ossetia is the territory of the Ingush.
The armed underground also considers the same, the Caucasus Emirate recognized the territory of Ossetia as a vilayet of G1alg1aiche, i.e. completely beyond the Ingush.
- Let's imagine that Russia has left the Caucasus. What happens to the Ossetians? In detail.
- In my opinion, Russia will not leave without a fight, so the liberation will be accompanied by war. I can not say how long it will last, but I am sure that it will be very bloody. Everyone knows that the bridgehead of Russia is North Ossetia, the 58 army headquarters there, the airfield in Beslan, the largest base in Mozdok, all on the border with Ingushetia. During the fighting, the theater of which will be at least Dagestan, Ingushetia, Chechnya and Kabarda. In the course of the war, it will be clear to the Ossetians themselves, who have stained their hands in Ingush and Chechen blood, that Russia will quit. Naturally, embittered, armed and well-prepared Ingush militants, whom Russia failed to cope with, and all those who had been waiting for a moment to take revenge on them, would rush towards Ossetia. And imagine how you think, will the Ossetians succeed in keeping this attack in the absence of the Feds? Of course not, and the Ossetians know this well themselves. Therefore, as the army units retreat, the Ossetian population will also come out. The Ossetians will indulge themselves with the fact that the Russian Federation is going out for a while, as it was in Chechnya's 90's, but then they will only deceive themselves. Surely, not everyone will run away immediately, but, as time passes, everyone will leave. The Ingush will not massacre the civilian population, we are different in this, but any attempt to "not look at it" will be punished harshly.
- And what did the Ossetians do to the Chechens? In the "Ingush blood" - this is understandable. But why in Chechen?
- Ossetian formations participated in the Chechen wars, especially "lit up" during the first war, as usual, massacres of civilians, women, children and old people. They also participated in the massacre in Samashki. Because of this, the Chechens did not take the Ossetians into captivity, but they slaughtered them in retaliation. This is the only people living in the Caucasus who have discredited themselves in relation to their neighbors. There are problems with the Ingush problems, with the Chechens problems, with the Kabardians, and the whole world knows what is with the Georgians.
- But Kadyrov spoke in support of Ossetia.
- Almost all Chechen nationalists supported Ossetia.
- Why ??
- Because they have suffered and are suffering pan-Chechen ideology, they want to join, if not all of Ingushetia, then its part.
- Let's go back to the problem of leaving Russia. I do not think she will leave under the influence of military force. Yes, and there is no force that would achieve this, except for the Emirate, but he is weak.
But almost all colonial empires collapsed under the influence of an internal crisis.
This is exactly what can happen with the North Caucasus.
If several riots of the Pugachev type occur today (which is happening today in the town of Pugachev), an act of terrorism like Nord-Ost, an external crisis and a sharp drop in oil prices, or an economic crisis for a different reason, at the same time unrest in Moscow like Bolotnaya or Manezhki (the liberal middle class or nationalists bring several tens of thousands to the streets) - then the Kremlin simply runs from the Caucasus. This is the most real.
- Of course, in the Caucasus there is no military force capable of throwing out a Russian army boot, even with active support from the outside. Here the political situation in the center should play its role, i.e. the crisis of the central government, most likely the Putin regime, possibly provoked by economic problems. Of course, this should take advantage of the Western countries to put pressure. Then from Moscow there will be an order to “leave the Caucasus”, and leaving the military, they will destroy everything, and the people cannot say that we just took it, thought it and decided to leave the fucking Caucasus, they won't understand. Therefore, they will play war games.
- And what will happen then?
“Then the Ingush and Chechens, thirsting for revenge, those who were at home and those who will start coming home from all over the world, will begin to set their own rules. They will catch officials and those who served them, all sorts of corrupt mullahs and muftis, take revenge on snitches, traitors, and divide their property. There will be an attempt to create an Islamic state of the Caucasus Emirate, but nationalism cannot be overcome. A little more will argue about the borders, half of the population will leave the places of permanent residence, i.e. will become refugees, and for a long time will not want to return.
- But Kadyrov has his strength.
Remember what happened after the withdrawal of the Soviets from Afghanistan. Najibullah held on for a few more years.
“If the Kremlin escapes from the Caucasus, they will leave the weapon to Kadyrov.” And the oil of Chechnya will be under his control - and that means there will be money.
- Kadyrov will not remain in his place either. Yes, there are forces, but they are not equal. The Kadyrov formations will not want to fight against their own, since most of them see their future in Chechnya, and they will understand that this is not for long, many will go over to the side of the militants and will repent. As for oil, one or two terrorist attacks on the oil pipeline - that's all the end of the money.
In addition, most of the militants in the Caucasus are Chechens, the forests are teeming with them. Due to the closed access of the media in Chechnya, Russians and the world do not see this.
- And the Circassians, Dagestanis, Karachay-Balkarians? What will happen in their lands?
- Approximately the same, but taking into account national and historical features.
There are many nationalities in Dagestan, they have to agree among themselves there. Kabardians have territorial difficulties with Balkarians, etc. As for the original Circassian territories outside the borders of the present-day Circassian republics, the problem with this chain is that the Circassians themselves turned out to be the weakest link at this time.
So, there will be a lot of problems, and they will have to be solved.
- While from what you say, bloody chaos emerges.
Remember what happened in Chechnya after the Russians left - criminal lawlessness, kidnapping throughout the country and in Chechnya itself, civil war. Against this background, Wahhabis appeared as carriers of unifying ideology.
- Alas, but in one way or another this cannot be avoided, I am almost sure of it, too many contradictions have accumulated, they should spill out.
- What unifying ideology will appear in this case? And will it appear at all? Will Islamists take over again?
- There is no alternative to Islam, but do not think that it will be aggression of all against all. Of course, we have supporters of world jihad, but they are in the minority, the majority understand that Islam still needs to be strengthened among the people, and we are tired of wars and instability, people need peace.
- And what will happen in the relations between the Ingush and the Chechens?
- Perhaps, there will be some territorial dispute, a border one, but on the basis of Shari'ah and Adat it will be quickly resolved. Merging will not be accurate.
- And the role of the Sufis?
- The role of the Sufis, of course, is significant, but the Salafis will order the music. There will be dismantling with the Sufis, more precisely with the top, which served the power, and then somehow grow together, but the role of the Sufis will decrease.
- Return of Imamat Shamil on a Sufi basis?
- How do you see the future of Abkhazia?
- This is already more difficult, I don’t have so many connections with her. I think, unlike South Ossetia, they have good chances to remain independent. Here the role will be largely played by the position of third parties, and to what extent Abkhazia itself is ready and willing to defend its sovereignty.
- And South Ossetia?
- All Ossetia will share between the Ingush and the Georgians. Ingush - North, Georgians - South.
- How common is waiting for Russia to leave in the North Caucasus today?
- Everyone knows that Russia will leave, everyone listened to the stories of old men about prophecies, now these prophecies come true in front of our eyes. Those who think - only guess when, how soon. But there are many who do not believe in it. They did not believe in the collapse of the USSR, but they were mistaken, so it will be this time.
- If in percentage terms, how many thinks that Russia will leave?
- 40 - 50%, not less.
- How many are sure that Russia will leave, how many doubt and how many think that Russia will be in the North Caucasus always, in the foreseeable future?
- 40 percent-50% are sure; 30 percent still know what will go away, but they don’t think that soon, 10 percent don’t think about anything at all. And the fact that Russia will always be in the Caucasus - no more than 10%, I say this with confidence!
- What will be the fate of the Russians who still remain in the North Caucasus?
- In Ingushetia and Chechnya there are almost none. And from Dagestan and Kabarda, they actively leave.
- What can you say about the Cossacks?
- The Cossacks are fake, this ryazhenoe scarecrow, which is still a little preserved in the Stavropol region and in the Kuban - and more than half of the impostors who do not have Cossack origin.
- Will the borders between the Russian Federation and the republics of the North Caucasus remain unchanged? The so-called Russian Caucasus? Kuban, Sochi, Pyatigorsk? This is the former Circassian land. The borders of the independent North Caucasus separated from Russia - are these only the borders of the North Caucasian Federal District?
- It is difficult to foresee, but I do not doubt that the Caucasian expansion in this direction will continue. The question is how soon will the forces gather for this.