Who orders blood and death in the Middle Eastern oil region? Which countries sponsor jihadists in our country? Why is Sochi becoming not an Olympic city, but a frontline city? These and other questions of Andrei Uglanov, the editor-in-chief of the Academy of Sciences, are answered by one of the most informed experts, the President of the Middle East Institute Yevgeny SATANOVSKY.
Russian health resort on fire
- Yevgeny Yanovich, is it possible to predict now how events in Egypt will unfold?
- Any prediction will be a scam. Egypt is rolling down the mountain, rapidly degrading. And in decline all areas of activity: economics, demography, ecology. Plus, after five years, when Ethiopia finishes its great project of the Renaissance dam, the Egyptians will lose almost 20% drains. What will they drink? Camel urine? Any president who will be elected now, even if he is Mother Teresa, or Pope of Rome, or even the resurrected Prophet Mohammed, cannot cope with these problems. It's impossible.
One of the options - Egypt will crumble, and a civil war will begin with enormous casualties. The army is trying to slow down this process on the basis of quite pragmatic considerations. If she does not do this, then the property belonging to the highest ranks - and this, according to rough estimates, from 20 to 30% of GDP - will turn to zero. There is no country, which means that all plants, factories, corporations do not cost anything. Will the army be able to preserve integrity while it is completely incomprehensible. You can exist under the military junta badly, but for a long time. And you can exist with a brilliant democratic president, but with a bloody finale. What will happen in Egypt - we do not know.
- While the army takes power in their hands.
- The army did very cleverly - it did not take power into their own hands directly. On the contrary, she gave it to a certain advisory committee with the involvement of religious authorities, various political forces, excluding the Islamists. At the same time, formally the main person in the country is not the general, but the chairman of the Supreme Constitutional Court, Adly Mansur. The West has nothing to complain about, but everyone understands that the final word rests with the Minister of Defense.
- Will the Muslim Brotherhood take revenge for their ousted president Mohammed Mursi?
“The leaders of large radical cells, including spiritual leaders and leaders of the radical Islamist Justice and Development Party, were arrested. If the lower cells now raise their members for a civil war, there will be a lot of blood. If they are helped by the Salafis, Jabhat al-Nusra, that is, al-Qaeda, and various groups such as Jamaat-i-Islami, the war will be large-scale and with unpredictable consequences for the country.
Small but smelly
- And the impact on the situation from the outside?
- The position of Qatar is very important. The Muslim Brotherhood’s defeat in Egypt is Doha’s colossal failure. Saudi Arabia sarcastically congratulated the new leadership of Egypt. There is an undeclared war between the Saudis and Qatari, the Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood, for the division of spheres of influence in the countries of the Persian Gulf. The Saudis have withdrawn from the events in Egypt, as Qatar earlier reduced aid to the Salafis in Syria. Assad began to really put pressure on the armed opposition, and the Qataris allowed the Saudis to fail. But Doha freed money and political resource in the Egyptian direction. What will the new emir of Qatar Tamim do? It's not clear yet. But Egypt is hundreds of times more important to him than other territories, including Syria.
- Already Qatar would sit silently ...
- When you have a population and territory, as one Moscow microdistrict, and 100 billions of dollars a year of free money, you can bloat anything. Plus mad ambitions.
- A dozen years ago, no one was looking for Qatar on the map!
- Yes, until about 1995, few people thought about it. Gradually, in amazement, the world saw the Qatari miracle growing on gas under the wing of an American military base. When the “Arab spring” began, it was no longer up to oriental subtleties and diplomacy, and Qatar showed itself to everyone by knocking the bat of war. Now the people who held this cudgel will come to power under Emir Tamim - this is his team. We are still waiting for the most interesting and unpredictable events related to Qatar. Including in Egypt.
- Recently filmed from Syria. Several gangsters cut off a Catholic priest's head. Russian speech is clearly audible ...
“The whole rabble always flocks to such places.” And then, unfortunately, comes back, filled with ideas, combat experience, professionalism in the conduct of guerrilla war. It is ridiculous and scary to hear that some local leaders are calling for the exclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood from the list of terrorist organizations in Russia. The events in Egypt showed their whole essence.
The problem is that there is globalization of jihad. Today, the militants are fighting in Afghanistan, tomorrow - in Mali, the day after tomorrow - in Syria. And then they will come to Sochi or Moscow. Although already arrived. Recently, militants were detained in Orekhovo-Zuyevo who, for Saudi money in Pakistan, were preparing terrorist attacks in Russia. But the training of militants goes not only in Pakistan. There is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), is full of Islamists in Tajikistan, monstrous criminals in Kyrgyzstan. A huge number of Salafis settled in Turkmenistan.
In Central Asia, a close coalescence of power structures and Salafi cells occurs everywhere. The boundaries between these semi-states and Russia are actually open.
- Another argument for the introduction of a visa regime with the former fraternal Soviet republics.
- It depends on how this process will be introduced, monitored, implemented. My opinion is that the most idiotic way will be chosen to bring this idea to life, which will lead to the most negative results.
- You said that in Central Asia there is a merging of radical groups and official authorities. Are there regions in Russia with a similar situation?
- In almost every region where the positions of Salafis are strong, there is such a problem. If you are a local administrator, you must have “in the forest” connections. A striking example is Dagestan. Mayor Amirov had direct contact with the "forest". And in Kabardino-Balkaria, after the attack on Nalchik and the arrests in the upper echelons of local government, the “forest” faded badly.
The situation is similar everywhere: in the Volga region, Tatarstan, in the North Caucasus. I want to note: all the significant stripping special operations are carried out by the central offices of law enforcement agencies. Local security forces are either associated with the "forest" or are afraid of their revenge.
But what will happen next? A mass of young people from among the golden youth, the children of local security officials, the children of prosecutors, oil magnates or administration officials, study abroad. They come quite ready-made radicals, adherents of the radical Hizb ut-Tahrir, Jamaat-i-Islami or the Muslim Brotherhood, or even quite frank Salafi. For the reason that they are relatives of local "bigwigs", how can they be arrested ?! At the same time, the leadership of some national republics after the Union collapsed often saw and see in the Islamists a certain force reserve in case of a collapse of Russia. So far, Putin has disintegrated, but in the republics they openly say that he is inevitable. And they openly say that Russia will exist in its current form even 15 – 20 years. And if so, why plant such a golden Islamist personnel reserve? This, you know, the gene pool of the nation. We must return them from the forest, give them some money, power, property, and everything will be fine.
There are rare cases of exceptions to this rule. For example, the phenomenon of Kadyrov, for whom the Salafis are shaitans (devils) because of the murder of their father. This is the difference between the situation in Chechnya and the situation in Dagestan or Tatarstan. And I am not sure that the situation in the Volga region is much better than the situation in the North Caucasus. She hasn't exploded yet. But swelling more and more.
- Where is the influence of Salafis most active?
- While we see one region of Russia, in which there are definitely no Salafi cells. This is Chukotka. Just far, cold and not necessary. But seriously, from 55 subjects of the Federation, where the most active terrorist Salafist cells, you can select the most active 38. The difficult situation with the “beggars” of the radicals in the North is in St. Petersburg and Karelia. In the Central region, Moscow and the Moscow region stand out sharply.
Cells arise wherever Turkish projects operate, the same NUR “Nurdzhular” with the educational American-Turkish system. Everywhere, where Pakistani, any Arab projects work, including Egyptian "Al-Askhar". In Bashkiria, the Volga region, in the southern Urals, in the Altai - the worst situation. In the Far East. And this is what is revealed. And how much in the shade?
Piastres on Jihad
- Is it possible to stop the financial flows from abroad that feed the terrorists? And which countries are mainly engaged in this "godly" business?
- The relatively small money is allocated by the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, the so-called floodplains. Then Pakistan, in which the collection of money for jihad is conducted among the broad masses of "working people". The main intelligence service - Pakistani interdepartmental intelligence - is at war with us since the war in Afghanistan. We are her old habitual enemy.
For a while, the sponsors of terrorism left Russia alone. This, by the way, was very noticeable in the attenuation of the second Chechen war. Iraq broke out, then - the “Arab Spring”, Libya, Syria, where to invest money. The main prize of Russia in connection with the “Arab Spring” is that funding has shifted there. The monarchies had the opportunity to build their caliphate. To crush all the neighbors by themselves, strangling secular dictators, whom the “floods” hated for decades, and could not do anything with them. Who will refuse this ?! This is more important than distant Russia.
Today, the resurrection of the financing of jihad in Russia goes through the line of Saudi Arabia. But the problem is that there is also Qatar - our “sworn friend”. All the fatwas in our occasion have been published, all the blessings of jihad have been received, all the curses on Putin personally and on our country have been made. Now our real front is the Arab world and Central Asia.
- If Qatar also switches from financing the riots in Egypt to us, will it not be enough?
- Yes. Doha has direct and hard reasons for confrontation with Russia. This is a powerful gas competition, including in the European market. In Saudi Arabia, the cause of disagreement with Russia is oil. Saudi pipe laid on Europe through Turkey is the golden source of income. For this, it must pass through Jordan and Syria, which will already be the former Syria. This project torpedoes the Iranian pipe through the same Syria and helps Turkey get rid of the Russian hydrocarbon dependence.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is satisfied with this situation. If Turkey at some point can remember its northern territories, right up to Sochi and Gelendzhik, she will do it. But for this, it needs independence from Russia for energy. In the meantime, Turkey is turned off from a serious anti-Russian game.
- But funding from abroad is still small ...
- Right. The main financial flows for jihad are domestic. The first source is a tight bow of Islamists with criminals. This is not a primitive gangster racket of market traders. Another thing is to collect zakat (dues) for jihad. And you are already a decent person who can be invited into the community. Bandits react to such things very well and go to religious banditry. This is strongly developed in Tatarstan, Dagestan, Moscow. The second source is a link with local authorities. The third source is the formation within Russia of their own parallel economy. There are many settlements in which Salafis control everything. I am afraid that it is already inside. Like a tumor.
- It is impossible to stop internal flows?
- Totally, probably not. But drastically limit quite real. It is only necessary not to sit and work inside the country. And people in the regions who are called upon to control the situation should be absolutely clean. That from the political, economic points of view there should be no complaints about them. After all, people from grassroots Salafi communities live nearby. They are outraged by corruption, hypocrisy, cronyism, a junction of corrupt authorities with official corruption leaders of local religious associations.
This is an “unsolvable” problem such as flu or poplar fluff. That which will have to live for decades. You can resist it, it is necessary, but we must understand that it cannot be eradicated to the end. But if you do not fight, then "poplar fluff" will soon cover the entire planet.
Grenade launcher against five rings
- Will they calmly give us the Olympics in Sochi? And is it worth it to spend?
- We'll have to spend. But everyone who can, under this flag will raise the terrorist underground against Russia. For example, the Circassian factor will be mercilessly exploited. Already there is an information wave about the immediate relocation of tens of thousands of Circassians from Syria and other countries under the guise of their salvation. And where to? After all, just the Sochi Circassians considered land of their ancestors. How many of them will be terrorists? So this idea is completely insane from a security point of view.
In this situation, the choice of the front-line city of Sochi for the Olympic Games is a colossal mistake. If it were carried out in Monchegorsk, Apatity, Chelyabinsk, anywhere, the threat would be ten times less. But the decision was made, the monstrous size of the investment allocated and successfully mastered.
Problems will certainly. Whether security officials will be able to stop all emerging threats is not yet clear. In this case, all the power structures of the country will be pulled together in Sochi, in fact exposing the rest of the regions.
- Maybe the official Islam somehow curb the terrorists?
- At the personal meeting of a hungry rat and rabbit, there will always be a rat for dinner. Traditional Islam in Russia is corrupt, illiterate, and is not respected either by the youth or by the intellectuals. He has no bright, educated, able to speak the modern language of leaders.
Who went to church, mosque or synagogue in Soviet times? Losers. There were separate "not finished" copies. There was Alexius Ridiger, the recently-departed patriarch. He is unique. But those who are worn on expensive jeeps, knocking down passersby are other people. And they are immeasurably more.
In Islam, we see former felons like Nafigully Ashirov. Maybe he, of course, is the mufti, the right hand of the chairman of the Council of Muftis Gainutdin. Only here are both hands in his headdresses.
- Repented ...
- I do not believe in repentance of bandits and criminals, swindlers and prokhindeev. People are morally and financially unscrupulous. People who have influence in traditional Islam, such as the late Said-efendi Chirkei, are easily beaten out - with a couple of suicide bombers.
Bright charismatic people who have education, knowledge to read the Quran, knowledge of traditions go to science, diplomacy, and business. But not a religion. If the mufti of Russia was headed, for example, by a wonderful diplomat and orientalist Aidar Aganin, then we would have no problems with radical visiting preachers. They would cry back leave.
The incredible rise of prayer places requires modern preachers. And they are not. As soon as the Imams begin to train abroad, then you receive from there new radicals, agents of influence. And it does not matter - they studied in Turkey, in Qatar or in Saudi Arabia. These are enemies. Especially since now in Islam, the height of religious wars. In Christianity, supporters of other trends are no longer killed. Islam is being killed. Gayaurs are killed - Orthodox. And even more so kill Muslims who believe or behave "wrong." This is a great intra-Muslim war, which today is coming to us, is going to Europe.
- Snake can not be tamed?
- The snake of terror is untamable. Who should be in order to expect that there will be some kind of moderate Islamists? And they will live with us - peacefully, amicably and tolerantly. You can’t be such idiots as the Americans or the Europeans, whom nothing teaches. You can not allow the plague, cholera and black pox into your house, thinking that they will turn into a mild runny nose or herpes.