Military Review

China's nuclear arsenal: Beijing can provide a sufficient level of deterrence and solve the problem of Taiwan

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In recent years, the attention of the whole world has been riveted on the People’s Republic of China. The country shows tremendous economic growth, being the second economy of the world after the USA. At the same time, China conducts an independent policy, and also has an unresolved conflict with Taiwan. This also adds to the problem of overpopulation - the population of China is already more than 1,3 billion people. All of the above causes many to focus their attention on the state and level of the Chinese armed forces. The PRC Army has the most numerous personnel, but the qualitative component, until recently, left much to be desired. In recent years, in connection with the development of industry, the PRC has achieved quite a great success in the military-industrial complex, although it often uses the methods of complete copying of foreign technology, most often acquired from the Russian Federation.

If China often demonstrates samples of "traditional" military equipment in parades and does not hide under the "secret" stamp, then information about the strategic forces is extremely scarce. And this is despite the fact that all the other countries of the “nuclear” club publish reports with detailed periodicity with detailed information on the quantitative and qualitative composition of their nuclear arsenals (the number of warheads, the number and types of strategic carriers). At the same time, it is clear that strategic forces are the main guarantor of the security and independence of such a serious global player as China. Without sufficient for reliable nuclear deterrence of the number of warheads and their carriers, the country will not be able to solve all those global tasks that the state, which claims to be a superpower, must set for itself. That is why it is worth analyzing in detail the nuclear arsenal of the PRC.

Nuclear weapon China first experienced in 1964 year, and thermonuclear - in 1967. From that moment on, the Chinese army began to be equipped with nuclear warheads. At that time, they were short-range and medium-range missiles, such as, for example, DF-1, with a range of 2000 km (a copy of the Soviet P-12). Further, in the 70s, missiles with a longer range were developed - DF-3 and DF-4 - 2800 km and 4700 km, respectively. These missiles are still in service with China. However, they do not reach the intercontinental range, and certainly do not allow strikes on the territory of the same United States. The first tests of ICBMs were conducted by the People's Republic of China in the 1980 year. It was a new DF-5 rocket, which had a range of up to 13000 km. From that moment, China began to have the opportunity to hit targets in the United States. In recent years, mobile ICBMs DF-31, with a range of up to 8000 km, have begun to be supplied to the People's Republic of China, and the mobile ICBM DF-41, carrying the 3-4 individual targeting warheads to 14000 km, is at the testing stage. Adoption of the latter will make it possible to strike across the US, taking into account the tasks to overcome missile defense, since according to some reports, DF-41 will be able to carry false targets.

At the moment, according to open data, the PRC has an insufficient number of strategic carriers in order to approach the two nuclear giants, the United States and the Russian Federation, and to guarantee complete immunity. China has only 20 MBF DF-5 and 20 BR DF-4 (can be classified as strategic, since the range of the rocket allows you to strike almost 2 / 3 territory of the Russian Federation). The number of DF-31 and DF-41 is still a mystery. DF-31 missile production is probably already underway in large quantities, starting with the 2000s, when the rocket was tested. It can be assumed that at this rate of development of the PRC and its armed forces, mass production of mobile DF-41 ICBMs will soon be possible, which may for some time pull China towards the level of deployed nuclear warheads in the 300-400 (the United States and the Russian Federation have there are more 1500) on strategic media. Then China will be able, without much “consulting” with anyone, to unleash local wars and operations that are beneficial to it. For example, to launch an invasion of Taiwan, guaranteeing non-interference by the United States (at least, direct).

The most problematic for the PRC at the moment is the strategic submarine fleet. It consists of only one submarine, a missile carrier, armed with 12 single-stage solid fuel rockets Jiulan-1, with a range of 1700 km. According to some reports, the missiles on the submarine are now being replaced by Jiulan-2, with a range of 8000 km (analogous to DF-31). In any case, this is absolutely insufficient so far, and, apparently, while China is experiencing big problems in creating effective submarines. In this area of ​​work, the PRC has no end - in fact, strategic fleet this country has not yet. And this is one of the most important components of strategic forces.

From all of the above, we can conclude that at the moment and in the medium term, China will not have the strategic forces sufficient to guarantee nuclear deterrence. But to treat the PRC in the long term in these matters is necessary with great caution - since a significant portion of the information related to China’s nuclear projects is closed, and industrial and technological growth is enormous.
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  1. Rus2012
    Rus2012 13 July 2013 06: 12 New
    +6
    In my opinion, the article inaccuracies -
    DF-1, the “1059 project”, was a copy of the Soviet P-2 rocket
    DF-2 - is a copy of the Soviet P-5M
    DF-3 - is an analogue, not a copy of the Soviet P-12.
    If memory serves, they no longer have all the documentation and technology ...

    And so - impressive. But they do not need to reach the levels of the states and Russia. It is enough to agree with the Russian Federation and jointly diversify this power. Both of us will be of great benefit, for the evil of the enemies ... :)
    1. Very old
      Very old 13 July 2013 08: 20 New
      +1
      Agree? Already friends ... Well, agreed. But Xiao-Miao has a hefty fig in every pocket. The PLA lives on Soviet developments, 100% of its own will not be soon
      1. Geisenberg
        Geisenberg 13 July 2013 12: 13 New
        0
        Quote: Old very
        Agree? Already friends ... Well, agreed. But Xiao-Miao has a hefty fig in every pocket. The PLA lives on Soviet developments, 100% of its own will not be soon


        To negotiate and become a "cancer" are two different things. So the USSR was becoming a crustacean towards China, and the Russian Federation could well agree on what we are now observing in the oil issue. Even though the PLA lives even in the Stone Age, its potential is still not small, and we must take this into account, so we just need to think through an agreement so as not to exert ourselves too much and not to exert the Chinese very much.
        1. Karabu
          Karabu 13 July 2013 12: 27 New
          +5
          Quote: Geisenberg
          So the USSR became a crustacean to China, and the Russian Federation may well agree

          you didn’t mix anything up behind the monitor? as far as I remember all the agreements with China ended in serious concessions from the Russian Federation or overt non-compliance from China.
          What do you think about the officially permitted shooting of our border areas to potential aggressor China?
          how the USSR stood with cancer read about the Daman conflict
          as the Russian Federation’s position does not change even this fact says-
          1. Very old
            Very old 13 July 2013 19: 36 New
            +2
            Vlad, some people forgot March-April 1969. Forgot MAO? For 10 years, Russia will be my enemy. From the mausoleum (and from memory) it will not be taken out. Almost that generation has gone, today's is brought up in an even more aggressive spirit. Of course, it is necessary to agree. Not forgetting the DULIA in your pocket. This is China, a 000-year-old semi-colony. And their memory is good, calling for revenge. China does not have a neighbor to whom it does not have territorial claims, and this says a lot
          2. Andrey Skokovsky
            Andrey Skokovsky 13 July 2013 22: 49 New
            -1
            China is today one of the most powerful countries with a huge population + it is our immediate neighbor
            So Russia has no Territorial disagreements and conflicts with Russia
            and you don’t have to lay out some kind of island, but it will never be worth becoming a stumbling block between us
            there are no questions for today and it is necessary to make sure that they do not arise in the future
      2. Cheloveck
        Cheloveck 14 July 2013 03: 03 New
        +1
        Quote: Old very
        Agree? Already friends ... Well, agreed.

        Thanks to the Great Maize!
        Firewood, the bastard broke everywhere you look.
  2. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 13 July 2013 06: 34 New
    +2
    China ..China is a country of mysteries and what one can expect from them!
    1. pensioner
      pensioner 13 July 2013 06: 52 New
      0
      Quote: MIKHAN
      .China is a country of mysteries and what one can expect from them!

      Why ... They themselves know what they want. And the rest, yes ... I can only guess.
      1. MIKHAN
        MIKHAN 13 July 2013 08: 53 New
        0
        Quote: retired
        Quote: MIKHAN
        .China is a country of mysteries and what one can expect from them!

        Why ... They themselves know what they want. And the rest, yes ... I can only guess.

        Yuri, you will not be late for your son’s wedding .. ??? (accept my congratulations with all my heart !!!) love
    2. Very old
      Very old 13 July 2013 08: 29 New
      +5
      Vitaly, everyone knows - the Chinese (Japanese) will smile, holding a fig in your pocket. Rus-u + for competence, you for skepticism
  3. sergaivenski
    sergaivenski 13 July 2013 07: 44 New
    +1
    As I understand the situation: why create a bike if this bike can be stolen? By this very principle, the Chinese live !!!
  4. Smersh
    Smersh 13 July 2013 08: 38 New
    +1
    China has only 20 ICBMs DF-5 and 20 BR DF-4 (can be classified as strategic, since the range of the missile allows you to strike almost 2/3 of the territory of the Russian Federation)


    not bad
  5. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 13 July 2013 09: 11 New
    +1
    Quote: Old very
    Vitaly, everyone knows - the Chinese (Japanese) will smile, holding a fig in your pocket. Rus-u + for competence, you for skepticism

    Well, we sorted out the Chinese at the border somehow and not bad .. I think they remembered it well ..))) In general, it is necessary to prepare and seriously so as not to repeat the 41st year (diplomacy and special services are our forward detachment so far ..) on the buttons push this limit .. (God forbid ...)
  6. Zomanus
    Zomanus 13 July 2013 14: 04 New
    +1
    Here's the garlic. If the clumsy ones explode all their warheads right in their warehouses, the whole ball will not seem too small. So argue, not argue, but it is clear that nuclear weapons work just when they simply exist.
  7. Odysseus
    Odysseus 13 July 2013 18: 09 New
    0
    A very weak article. The strategic forces of the PRC are, indeed, a closed topic. But not as much ...
    All Chinese missiles are confused, their nuclear potential is underestimated. It was especially “embarrassing” that the author discovered one projectile 092 from the PRC in which he tried to push Julan-2.4 SSBNs type 094 on which he really did not see Julan-2. As well, by the way H-6.
    1. Very old
      Very old 13 July 2013 19: 45 New
      0
      Odyssey, every sun-take diplomat, when he needs it. This is about it. Rare Chinese secrets come out behind the Chinese wall. And what is going on there, does the Lord know?
  8. Des10
    Des10 13 July 2013 19: 40 New
    +3
    "From all of the above, we can conclude - at the moment and in the medium term, China will not have the strategic forces sufficient to guarantee nuclear deterrence. But we must be wary of China in the long term with these issues, as a significant part of the information China’s nuclear projects are closed, and industrial and technological growth is huge. "
    Yes, to the PRC, and so on and so - “one must be very wary” of treating without nuclear weapons! History itself and development - oblige to it! Stunned, with such a neighbor - without the ICBMs he takes the Far East with a quiet glanders!
  9. Bashkaus
    Bashkaus 13 July 2013 23: 30 New
    +2
    Gentlemen, we all forget about biological weapons, which by the way, we also have and live, as well as chemical ones. Of course I understand the conventions, etc. Yes, it’s not advisable to use genetic weapons against a multinational state like Russia, the USA, etc. But against China, where 99% of Asians are very good. At the same time, with a well-developed virus, you can wait only a latent period, and then boldly go on the attack just to bother. Although sorry, it’s not customary to write about such things, as well as about the atypical primonia, which once walked around the planet, many, but exclusively Asians, perished. In percentage terms, white mortality was extremely low.
  10. Darth Revan
    Darth Revan 14 July 2013 20: 26 New
    0
    Quote: Bashkaus
    Gentlemen, we all forget about biological weapons, which by the way, we also have and live, as well as chemical ones. Of course I understand the conventions, etc. Yes, it’s not advisable to use genetic weapons against a multinational state like Russia, the USA, etc. But against China, where 99% of Asians are very good. At the same time, with a well-developed virus, you can wait only a latent period, and then boldly go on the attack just to bother. Although sorry, it’s not customary to write about such things, as well as about the atypical primonia, which once walked around the planet, many, but exclusively Asians, perished. In percentage terms, white mortality was extremely low.


    Indeed, as a fallback you can keep in mind ...