One of the results of the confrontation is military-political, social, economic instability and turbulence as a result of the artificially created chaos of the situation in individual countries and regions. In the strategies used, with all the diversity of the forms and directions of randomization, the geopolitical features of the objects of its application, certain patterns are observed. This allows to introduce the concept of “controlled chaos model” as one of the modern tools used by the West in the struggle for global domination. The first successful application of such a model refers to the times of the collapse of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact, when the era of bipolar confrontation was ended. Then, various “orange revolutions”, “the Arab spring” and other events related to the destabilization and disintegration of sovereign states, violation of the subjectivity of their development followed and continue. The complex of events carried out at the same time is focused on the control centers of the enemy in order to deeply transform the political, economic, social and spiritual life of the country and then draw the reformatted victim state into the orbit of the satellite-controlled satellites.
The effectiveness and predicted probability of using models of controlled chaos in the future necessitates careful study of this phenomenon as one of the threats to the national security of the Russian Federation. Our country still remains one of the main goals in the collimator of the model's sight. That is why the study of the system characteristics of the model and the features of its application is a very urgent task.
PREDICTIONS FOR MANAGEMENT
In general, a model is understood as a conceptual tool focused primarily on the management of a simulated process or phenomenon. In this case, the function of prediction, prediction serves the purpose of management.
Under the model of controlled chaos, it is proposed to understand the logical-linguistic description of the process of developing a confrontational spiral in a selected country or group of countries in order to achieve the given socio-political, military, economic, spatial-geographical characteristics of the victim state (or region). The content of the process determines the goals and objectives of the model, the stages of confrontation, indicators of the achievement of the objectives for each of the stages, and also allows you to develop a forecast of possible domestic and international opposition.
The purpose of the model may be to implement several interrelated functions:
- the creation of a structural shell for the formation of a conceptual tool that can serve as the basis for developing variable plans for the development of the process of controlled chaos in a particular geopolitical zone. The forecasting function serves the purpose of planning and strategic process control and is an integral part of the model. The structural shell is a complex of control and management bodies of processes in the internal political and international political sphere of the state optimized in composition and set of functions;
- support of the choice of the solution that most fully corresponds to the optimal variant of the development of the simulated process;
- ensuring continuous management of the simulated process;
- ensuring continuous monitoring of the model's activity and the results obtained.
The strategy of the model of controlled chaos involves taking into account the nature of relations both within the victim state and with other states, primarily within the region, the alignment of military-political forces and the dynamics of their development, the likely reaction of institutions ensuring global and regional security. The forecasting carried out in this area is usually based on the analysis and assessment of hazards, risks, challenges and threats that may have a global, regional or local character. A complex of factors is also analyzed, some of which have a stabilizing or destabilizing effect on the situation.
System analysis of the model of controlled chaos involves solving two problems:
- analysis of the architecture of the model and its main components;
- analysis of the relationships between them.
The use of the conceptual modeling method and the logical-linguistic description of the model for analyzing the model's architecture requires a clear understanding of the elements of the model, their interrelations, the processes of development and decision-making.
The model of controlled chaos, like any other model, can be constructively fully described using four system elements: function, input, output, processor.
The function performs a system-forming role and characterizes the purpose of the model. The function determines what should be achieved as a result of the functioning of the model of controlled chaos, but does not indicate how this should be done.
TRANSFORMATION OR COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
The objective function of the model of controlled chaos involves the development of control actions aimed at the purposeful transformation of the geopolitical status or the complete destruction of the victim state as the main object of influence of the model. The systemic geopolitical components of the state that determine its role and place in the modern world, the capacity for sustainable development are subject to impact: the bodies of military-political management, socio-economic and military potential, infrastructure, territory and population. The task is to radically change the geopolitical status of a state, determined by its position in the global and regional system of states, its ability to influence events in the world and the region while maintaining its intrinsic subjectivity of development, the ability to protect and strengthen its national interests, to ensure national security.
The model uses a set of tools to create chaos in the state, of which the most common are measures to support the development of liberal democracy and market reforms in the country. Along with this, the idea is being deliberately introduced into the consciousness of the population that progress in these areas will inevitably lead to an increase in living standards, the formation of a powerful middle class. At the same time, the former values and ideology are being ousted from the consciousness of people. In contrast, pseudo-democratic support, often with a radical orientation, supposedly independent ethno-confessional movements, is supported. The end result of such actions is the progressive collapse of the economic and social life of the country, the disorientation of the population, the weakening of the security forces.
The controlling influences at the entrance to the model of controlled chaos are formed in accordance with the chosen scenario of the development of the situation within the victim state and its environment, as well as situations arising within the framework of the scenario.
At the output of the model, solutions are generated, which are transmitted to various performance levels acting in the interests of the model within the country and abroad.
The processor as an important system characteristic of the model provides coordination of system components and management of the model's activity.
The situation monitoring system forms a feedback channel that ensures the sustainability of the controlled chaos model and allows for continuous operational monitoring and assessment of the impact of decisions made on the situation inside the country and in the international sphere.
The logical-linguistic description of the model of controlled chaos can be represented in the form of a matrix of system components that can be described by characteristics within the four main dimensions of the model: static, control, dynamic and predictive.
BASIC SYSTEM COMPONENTS
The main system components of the model of controlled chaos include:
1. Functions and objectives of the model. It should be noted that for the implementation of various goals may require transformation of the model, up to the need to create a new model.
2. The purpose of the model, which is based on the representation of the interested party in the final results of the functioning of the model, and what the model can actually provide for their achievement. The purpose of the model is the leading criterion in determining its structure, overall potential and other characteristics, taking into account the expected contribution of the model to the achievement of the final result.
3. The geopolitical coverage (area of responsibility) of the model allows determining the extent to which the activities are carried out to form the totality of the necessary transformations in order to create an environment of controlled chaos (global, regional or local).
4. The processor model is the most important system characteristic. In general, the processor may include:
- an algorithm that determines the sequence of development and implementation of solutions that ensure the achievement of the goals and objectives of the model;
- the basic resources of the model, including material, technical, financial, informational, infrastructure for the operation of the model in its area of responsibility;
- a catalyst that includes a set of internal factors that ensure the transformation processes of external factors into control actions (model competences and their compliance with goals and objectives, efficiency of decision-making and implementation procedures, ability to project financial, economic, political, military power within the zone model liability, etc.);
- human resources that are attracted in the interests of solving the problems of the model at the stages of its activity.
5. Strategic stability of the model in various situations. The factors that ensure strategic sustainability include the presence of a clear strategy; internal unity of participants interested in achieving the ultimate goals of the model; the ability of the organizers to ensure the formal compliance of the activities carried out with the internationally recognized regulatory framework.
6. The network of relations of the model with other participants of the international political process interested in the transformation of the victim state. The network may include individual states, their unions, international organizations, non-governmental and public organizations, individual influential personalities.
7. Situation monitoring assumes that the model has a developed network of means of monitoring the situation, systematizing and analyzing information and their prompt transfer to decision-making centers. The presence of the monitoring system ensures the functioning of the feedback channel, which is a key condition for the stable operation of the model as a whole.
ARCHITECTURE MODEL MANAGEMENT
In the architecture of the model of controlled chaos, an important place belongs to the processor, which has a number of significant differences, for example, from the processor model providing global, regional or national security. If the security model in the processor can clearly define the hierarchical levels of control: strategic, operational and tactical, then the processor model of controlled chaos will look different. The system difference lies in the combination in it of the capabilities of hierarchical management structures and phenomena of global, regional and national network structures that have already declared themselves, which can serve as a powerful tool that has a destabilizing effect on all spheres of activity of the victim state. As part of the synergistic interaction, these system components complement each other’s advantages and mutually compensate for the shortcomings, which provides flexibility in their application at various stages of the operation to destabilize the situation.
Thus, the traditional rigid hierarchical control system has inherent subordination, stability, recoverability, the presence of information transmission channels. At the same time, the hierarchical structure often has a low degree of controllability and a systemic tendency towards an increase in the number of hierarchical levels, an insufficient efficiency of information transfer, which leads to delays in making decisions and actions in real time. Hierarchical structures often die when the central link is destroyed. It is this hierarchical structure in the form of the state that opposes the model of controlled chaos.
The network forms are characterized by the absence of a single center, these are polycentric structures. The network organization has a horizontal architecture, for which, unlike a rigid hierarchical pyramid, the interconnectedness of cells (groups) of a network and the continuous exchange of information between them on a time scale close to real are inherent. By definition, each cell is equal and enjoys the relative freedom of network entry and exit. High motivation of the participants of the network structure predetermines their orientation towards the final result and the effectiveness of actions, the cells flexibly adapt to changes in the internal and external environment, and are capable of self-organization and self-regulation. High speed information exchange as one of the important characteristics of network interaction simplifies and speeds up the process of creating geographically distributed social groups (networks) across the country or region, characterized by a predominance of non-hierarchical horizontal communications, the ability to communicate between cells. The dynamism and sustainability of the active centers of the network, the diversity of internal connections provide the network structure with a variety of ways to develop and solve problems in a rapidly changing environment.
As the experience of events in Libya and Syria shows, the model of controlled chaos is based on two types of networks: on local and regional network structures. In the first case, the network consists of self-contained secret decentralized groups with free horizontal communication. Regional network structures are more open and focused on their own expansion, distribution in the region, on attracting new elements, which is especially important for feeding the model. weapons, finance, human resources, information support. For regional networks, a mobile, permeable, and not always pronounced boundary of the network within the region is typical. In such an environment, a strong internal organization is necessary to ensure network stability. The potential of the model is directly proportional to the diversity of cells (groups) covered by the network in the country and region. At the same time the network multicentricity does not interfere with its integrity. As part of the synergistic interaction, the network as a whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The integrity of the network is provided by high-speed and efficient intranet transmission channels of control actions and feedback that allows you to synchronize the processes occurring in different parts of the network. In the conditions of conflict development, local and regional network structures are used to solve mobilization tasks related to the study, recruitment and training of militants. The role of regional structures is especially great in recruiting fighters and providing them. According to some data, out of 5 – 7, thousands of Syrian opposition militants, only 1,5 thousand can be identified as people from Syria, the rest are sent to the country through regional networks covering Africa, the Middle East, and some other areas. Local network mobilization channels were attracted to ensure mass unrest in Turkey in early June.
Given the specificity of the processor model of controlled chaos, another important feature of the network organization is the possibility of its timely functional restructuring. This ensures the mobility and mobility of the use of basic resources, for example, their focus on the currently strategically important goal.
In general, the availability of high-speed links and the potential for flexible adaptation of network forms facilitate better coordination in the event of abrupt and hardly predictable changes in the situation. The variability and controllability of the boundaries of the network forms of the model make it possible to modify the composition of the network as a response to such changes.
The use of network forms of organization and interaction allows to ensure the survival and effectiveness of models of controlled chaos.
WAY TO CAPITULATION: STEP BY STEP
The catalyst model of controlled chaos as an integral part of the processor, based on taking into account the development of the internal situation in the country, transforms the actions of external factors into control actions aimed at solving a complex of tasks of stage-by-stage destabilization of all vital areas of the state identified as a victim, up to the complete surrender of the government. In terms of content, managing influences can be aimed at weakening the manageability of the economy and decomposition of key state institutions, degradation of the internal socio-economic situation, up to systemic stimulation of the internal socio-political crisis, formation of an external adverse international environment, skillful combination of hard and soft technologies of impact on the population the ruling circles and especially to the power structures in order to bring about a split and demoralization, wide and Using "agents of influence", the spread of panic rumors and moods.
As a result, at the final stage of confrontation, the political will of the government and the ruling elites is undermined and the question of the transfer of power to certain opposition forces or the introduction of external rule is raised.
The focus on the work of the processor sets the forecast for the likely internal and external opposition, including an assessment of the internal political situation, the state of the economy and the social sphere, the cohesion of the population and the degree of support of the ruling regime, the morale of the armed forces and their readiness to protect the existing state and political system. An important element of the forecast is the assessment of the ability of the state and the ruling elites to resist the separatist tendencies within the country, to respond promptly and adequately to signs of tension on a religious, cultural and civilizational basis. It is characteristic that the scale and level of technological equipment of the armed forces belong to secondary factors.
In the international political sphere, the state’s relations with the institutions of ensuring global and regional security, the presence of ill-wishers among other states, as well as the presence of allies and the degree of their readiness to support the destabilization of the internal political situation are to be assessed.
The model activity algorithm is built on the basis of a clear understanding of the ratio of destabilizing and stabilizing factors in the domestic and international political spheres with the development of successive steps to appropriately strengthen some and weaken the influence of other factors.
What are the threats that create the basis for the possible use of controlled chaos technologies against the Russian Federation? These are attempts of non-critical introduction of Western models of economic management, many of which do not correspond to Russian conditions; the continuing attachment to the commodity orientation of the economy and the underdevelopment of the processing industries; corruption in public administration; maintaining the position of the “slave” country in the field of cultural and civilizational development; promotion of the liberal idea of non-interference of the state in the economy and social construction as a guarantor of the inevitability of truly democratic transformations; uncontrolled migration.
Successful opposition to these threats is crucially determined by the potential, power and internal unity of the Russian Federation, the balance of power in the world system of states. Of particular importance for Russia and the world as a whole is the task of forming a common security space in Eurasia without dividing lines, where the Russian Federation would rightfully act as a consolidating civilization within a single Eurasian bloc. One of the important conditions for successfully meeting this global challenge is that Russia has clear strategies that ensure balanced internal and external development of the country, its attractiveness for its own citizens and partners, strengthening allied and partnerships, improving contacts with international organizations and using the potential of international cooperation in the interests of strengthening national security and adapting its national structures and policies in general to the changing geo Itical map of the world.