Military Review

Heydar Mirza: “Baku is categorically against attempts to solve the issue by force ...”

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Heydar Mirza: “Baku is categorically against attempts to solve the issue by force ...”Heydar Mirza, a well-known Azerbaijani expert, a leading researcher at the Foreign Policy Analysis Department of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Azerbaijan, commented on Vesti.Az on the possible outcome of the Syrian conflict and the Iranian issue with the possible involvement of Azerbaijan.


Syrian conflict and its outcome

The outcome of the Syrian conflict in the near future should not be expected. The rebels ’success in the early stages of the confrontation is now very unlikely. The rebels, i.e. The West, could achieve quick and decisive success in only one case. If Bashar Assad could be physically eliminated, a serious split (rather than the desertion of one or two generals or ministers) in the country's military-political leadership, in society, and to establish control over at least 50% of the country before the key global and regional Assad's allies would have time to react.

The West decided to follow a scheme with minimal direct intervention in Libya: a blockade + a no-fly zone + airstrikes + insurgent fighting + the physical elimination of the leader = success. In the case of Libya, this worked due to a number of factors; in the case of Syria, the alignment was different. And now the moment is missed. Information advantage of opponents of Bashar Assad is minimized.

The support of Russia and Iran is becoming quite visible in a military sense, which a) minimizes the effect of the blockade on Syria (financial assistance from Iran in the amount of 1 billion US dollars in January of this year, a decision on further financial assistance in the amount of 3 billion US dollars) , b) negates the potential likelihood of the allies of the rebels gaining air superiority (supply of C-300 air defense systems from Russia, the decision to supply advanced models of MIG-29 aircraft) and c) reduces the effectiveness of an asymmetrical rebel war against the Syrian armed forces (Hezbollah effective intervention and counter-guerrilla actions on the side of the Syrian armed forces).

In this regard, interesting is the recent statement by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, Martin Dempsey. Commenting on the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone over Syria, and noting that any US decision to introduce a no-fly zone in Syria would require tough decisions regarding US military priorities in the context of budget cuts and other obligations, including the ongoing war in Afghanistan, he said: we want to introduce a no-fly zone, and this is essentially an act of war, I would like to know a plan for achieving peace before we start a war. We are already experiencing some lack of readiness. We have forces that are on high alert in the Korean Peninsula region, in the Persian Gulf because of potential provocations from Iran. We are still actively involved in the fighting in Afghanistan. " Now think what it means in the language of the average person ...

However, the fact that the rebels and their allies are faced with problems does not mean that the conflict will soon be resolved in favor of supporters of Bashar Assad. The conflict in Syria is having an increasing influence on the domestic and foreign policies of the countries of the entire Middle East. Its influence on the balance of power in global terms is great. Released by someone from the bottle of genies of the People's Islam, multiplied by the formula of controlled chaos by “democracy here, now and at any cost”, will lead to completely uncontrollable consequences. From the very beginning of the conflict, there was a high probability that it would be transferred to other neighboring countries. Today this probability has increased even more.

Iran and the possible participation of Azerbaijan in Western operations

The issue of confrontation in Syria is directly related to the so-called. "Iranian issue." Tehran is well aware of this, and Iran’s support for Bashar Assad is not sentiment, but an awareness of the threat to the vital interests of the Iranian state.

Regarding your question about what role the West has given Azerbaijan in a possible war against Iran, I will give a hard answer: Azerbaijan is an independent player in regional geopolitics, and in terms of geopolitics of the South Caucasus, it is the key and only truly independent player with its own interests. Regardless of whether we are interested in other geopolitical initiatives or not, we ourselves define our role and do not need extraneous definitions.

Discussions on this matter among the Azerbaijani public, in the expert community, on the pages of the media, the statements of a number of representatives of the deputies may be different, but the spokesman for the official position of the Republic of Azerbaijan is the head of state and foreign ministry. And their position on the subject matter is extremely pragmatic, it has been repeatedly expressed and known: Baku is categorically against attempts to solve the issue by force, and using the territory of Azerbaijan as an element of the force scenario in any form is considered totally unacceptable. Even with the amendment to the existence of a number of existential contradictions between Baku and Tehran, these problems are not insoluble, and will be resolved as the experience of the coexistence of two different systems increases.

I can also note that in view of everything noted by me above on the situation in Syria, the probability of a force scenario in the so-called. The “Iranian issue” has declined substantially.
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  1. tronin.maxim
    tronin.maxim 3 July 2013 07: 03 New
    +9
    Azerbaijan is an independent player in regional geopolitics, and in terms of geopolitics of the South Caucasus it is a key and only truly independent player with its own interests. THAT I HAVE SUCH STRONG Doubts!
    1. Nicholas C.
      Nicholas C. 3 July 2013 07: 34 New
      +5
      For this expert, cannibalistic mercenary terrorists who kill children are rebels. By virtue of his position under President Aliyev, this says a lot about the real position of Azerbaijan. How did he write there? Independent?
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 3 July 2013 07: 45 New
        +2
        Quote: Nikolay S.
        For this expert

        By the way, there is one Geidar on the site, he writes articles, it’s not him for an hour what Does anyone know?
        1. kNow
          kNow 3 July 2013 09: 54 New
          +4
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          Quote: Nikolay S.
          For this expert

          By the way, there is one Geidar on the site, he writes articles, it’s not him for an hour what Does anyone know?

          He is. Don’t confuse it with Jemal, that dreamer.
      2. kotdavin4i
        kotdavin4i 3 July 2013 09: 00 New
        +5
        Nikolay, he gives an official interview and cannot call freaks - freaks, unfortunately this is not politically correct, therefore we have to speak diplomatically.
        1. Nicholas C.
          Nicholas C. 3 July 2013 09: 43 New
          +2
          Quote: kotdavin4i
          can't call freaks - freaks

          Rebels - the term "friends of Syria" - the anti-Syrian side. And the expert with this term showed which side he is on. To call the "rebels", avoiding the political assessments of the parties as much as possible, for example: anti-government armed groups. Or something like that. Russian is rich.
          1. kNow
            kNow 3 July 2013 09: 53 New
            +5
            Quote: Nikolay S.
            Quote: kotdavin4i
            can't call freaks - freaks

            Rebels - the term "friends of Syria" - the anti-Syrian side. And the expert with this term showed which side he is on. To call the "rebels", avoiding the political assessments of the parties as much as possible, for example: anti-government armed groups. Or something like that. Russian is rich.

            But your own media calls this rabble both rebels and fighters of the "free Syrian army", what claims to Heydar after that?
            1. Nicholas C.
              Nicholas C. 3 July 2013 10: 06 New
              +1
              Quote: kNow
              your own media calls this rabble both rebels and fighters of the "free Syrian army", what claims are there to Heydar after that?

              The media in Russia almost all do not reflect the point of view of the government, but of their owners or grantors. Therefore, the ether is clogged with all sorts of Gozmans, Novodvorsky, etc. He has to hear them and not so. And your Heydar is a GOVERNMENT expert. Can't you see the difference?
              1. kNow
                kNow 3 July 2013 10: 22 New
                +3
                Quote: Nikolay S.
                Quote: kNow
                your own media calls this rabble both rebels and fighters of the "free Syrian army", what claims are there to Heydar after that?

                The media in Russia almost all do not reflect the point of view of the government, but of their owners or grantors. Therefore, the ether is clogged with all sorts of Gozmans, Novodvorsky, etc. He has to hear them and not so. And your Heydar is a GOVERNMENT expert. Can't you see the difference?

                It’s important, I’ll leave aside the media. But that's what your president says, and even meets with this “opposition” ... There is nowhere to be officially
                1. Nicholas C.
                  Nicholas C. 3 July 2013 11: 26 New
                  0
                  Quote: kNow
                  so says your president, and even meets with this "opposition" ... There is nowhere for official

                  Curious. I would like to get a link when Putin met with them, what did he say?
                  1. kNow
                    kNow 3 July 2013 11: 56 New
                    +3
                    Quote: Nikolay S.
                    Quote: kNow
                    so says your president, and even meets with this "opposition" ... There is nowhere for official

                    Curious. I would like to get a link when Putin met with them, what did he say?

                    Offhand found about Lavrov
                    http://www.tribuna.ru/news/society/lavrov_v_myunkhene_vstretilsya_s_liderom_oppo
                    zitsii_sirii_ /
                    1. Nicholas C.
                      Nicholas C. 3 July 2013 12: 04 New
                      +2
                      Quote: kNow
                      Offhand found about Lavrov

                      There is no direct speech from Lavrov at the link provided. You answer for your previous words, since you wrote them.
                      1. kNow
                        kNow 3 July 2013 13: 31 New
                        +2
                        Quote: Nikolay S.
                        Quote: kNow
                        Offhand found about Lavrov

                        There is no direct speech from Lavrov at the link provided. You answer for your previous words, since you wrote them.

                        What specifically do you answer - to what they call rebels or about meeting with Russian officials?
            2. SASCHAmIXEEW
              SASCHAmIXEEW 3 July 2013 13: 55 New
              -1
              "Our" media in the hands of the Zionist Jews and the truth they have a gulkin beak ...
      3. dc120mm
        dc120mm 3 July 2013 10: 38 New
        +1
        Quote: Nikolay S.
        it says a lot about the real position of Azerbaijan. How did he write there? Independent?

        And you arm them wink
      4. 416sd
        416sd 3 July 2013 13: 06 New
        +5
        "For this expert", i.e. for me, these are really cannibals killing children. This is my personal opinion. This is a personal opinion. And in many respects coincides with the position of our state.

        But the position of the state cannot be expressed in terms of "cannibals that kill children." Because I'm not just a political scientist. I am a representative of the think tank serving the country's top leadership. And my words are not only my words.

        I hope I was able to convey.
    2. kotdavin4i
      kotdavin4i 3 July 2013 08: 58 New
      +3
      Good morning Maxim. let me disagree with you, Azerbaijan is the only state in the Caucasus that has oil and gas deposits, unlike Armenia - living at the expense of Russia and Georgia - bowing to the United States, Azerbaijan allows itself an independent policy.
      1. Denis
        Denis 3 July 2013 12: 41 New
        +3
        Quote: kotdavin4i
        unlike Armenia - living at the expense of Russia and Georgia - bowing to the United States,
        Everything is clear with Georgia, but Armenia, I do not defend them, how does it live at the expense of Russia? Here, even a photo of their rally, such as Gazprom leave, was brought
      2. baltika-18
        baltika-18 3 July 2013 13: 29 New
        +2
        Quote: kotdavin4i
        Good morning Maxim. let me disagree with you, Azerbaijan is the only state in the Caucasus having oil and gas deposits,

        The whole question is who are the buyers of this oil. 70% of Azerbaijan’s oil export falls on three countries (Italy, France, USA). And whoever pays the money, the young lady is dancing.
    3. baltika-18
      baltika-18 3 July 2013 13: 17 New
      +1
      Quote: tronin.maxim
      Azerbaijan is an independent player in regional geopolitics, and

      Quote: tronin.maxim
      THAT I HAVE SUCH STRONG Doubts!

      You do not have one Maxim.
      Independent politics in the modern world is generally a very relative concept. All politics, sadly enough, is tied to the number of dollars (material goods) that are behind this or that political problem.
  2. My address
    My address 3 July 2013 07: 06 New
    +1
    Come on! Only Uncle Sam beckons a big carrot, so a little thought will appear about Great Azerbaijan. Well nafig DAM sold out territories and weapons certainly not friends? Miracle fine-cut (I do not know what it is, but definitely offensive). Now it is necessary to strengthen the army grouping there.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 3 July 2013 07: 34 New
      +5
      Quote: My address

      Yes, drop it! Uncle Sam will only beckon a big carrot, so immediately a thought will appear about Great Azerbaijan

      We will consider these your words as the starting point of the beginning of the next sracha laughing
      1. ed65b
        ed65b 3 July 2013 08: 29 New
        +1
        Precisely identified will begin now.
      2. kotdavin4i
        kotdavin4i 3 July 2013 09: 02 New
        +4
        Good morning teska hi , well, let's start betting? wink
      3. My address
        My address 3 July 2013 09: 16 New
        +1
        My dear, by virtue of youth you have seen in your life only representatives of the office plankton. Therefore, natural for you: envy; disbelief that someone might know a lot. Read your latest comments and agree.

        I will not be like you in insults. But I can, in the early times I worked as the head of a non-sick production site, and this teaches a lot, I can happen to bring a heart attack. What if you are disabled? Regarding the titles on the site I was interested, now a little funny. Soon everyone will be field marshals. I have reached the maximum in a civilian, in translation into the army - two gleams, two stars and I was satisfied.

        Regarding Azerbaijan, they heard from witnesses how the events took place in Sumgait, how children were killed and I know about the support of this by “ordinary Azerbaijanis”.
        1. kNow
          kNow 3 July 2013 09: 56 New
          +3
          Quote: My address
          Regarding Azerbaijan, they heard from witnesses how the events took place in Sumgait, how children were killed and I know about the support of this by “ordinary Azerbaijanis”.

          It’s a pity that not everyone heard it and not from the very beginning ...
        2. kotdavin4i
          kotdavin4i 3 July 2013 10: 13 New
          +7
          Quote: My address
          I will not be likened to you in insults.

          To be honest, I didn’t understand to whom you are responding, if to me, then where are the insults in your direction request , about the title, so in a few months on the shoulder straps there will be 2 stars (the subfield is yours), thank God it’s not disabled, although it got ...
          and finally the main thing
          Quote: My address
          Regarding Azerbaijan, I heard from witnesses,
          - You heard from the "witnesses" and I have been living here since birth so I don’t need to "tell" hi
          1. Mairos
            Mairos 3 July 2013 11: 46 New
            0
            In conflicts like Karabakh there will always be two truths and each side will bring a thousand facts in support of its own. It’s like in relations between Russians and Chechens - as we begin to plunge into history, that’s all .. Everyone is right in his own direction and, alas, this is incorrigible.
            1. Yarbay
              3 July 2013 15: 54 New
              -1
              Quote: Mairos
              In conflicts like Karabakh there will always be two truths and each side will bring a thousand facts in support of its own.

              The truth is one!
              Until now, you called the * other * party could not give any arguments and documents, except for easily exposed fakes!
        3. Yarbay
          3 July 2013 15: 52 New
          -2
          Quote: My address
          Regarding Azerbaijan, they heard from witnesses how the events took place in Sumgait, how children were killed and I know about the support of this by “ordinary Azerbaijanis”.

          And give a list of children killed ?? or all the same whistle, as well as about the fact that they were the head of a sickly production?)))
          We will eliminate your illiteracy!
          The investigation, which was conducted by the USSR Prosecutor's Office for Sumgayit events, called the Armenian Grigoryan one of the organizers of the pogroms, I quote below an interview of an investigator who supported the state prosecution in court!
          http://www.1news.az/interview/20110119100252798.html
          http://www.1news.az/interview/20110122102736004.html
          http://www.1news.az/interview/20110131100323551.html
          http://www.1news.az/interview/20110127094816092.html
          and here on the video there are footage of the interrogation of this bandit and the jackal !! In addition to Grigoryan, three more Armenians actively participating in the pogroms were arrested!


          And about the fact that you were once a boss, this is not an indicator of either intelligence or special knowledge!
          Chubais is still the boss, Serdyukov was the boss!
          From an early youth I was the boss))
      4. Yarbay
        3 July 2013 15: 41 New
        +4
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        We will consider these your words as the starting point of the beginning of the next sracha

        I was clearly missing in the morning)))))
        Alas, I was awake at night, I got enough sleep in the morning)))))))
        1. smersh70
          smersh70 6 July 2013 12: 13 New
          0
          Quote: Yarbay
          I was clearly missing in the morning)))))



          and they didn’t tell me .. rested for a week ..... smile
    2. kotdavin4i
      kotdavin4i 3 July 2013 09: 02 New
      +4
      As far as I know, a thought about Great Armenia is in the heads of some, but I have not heard about Great Azerbaijan ...
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 3 July 2013 09: 35 New
        +4
        Quote: kotdavin4i
        but I haven’t heard of Great Azerbaijan ...

        Evening will come hear and even show you a map wassat
  3. Egoza
    Egoza 3 July 2013 07: 14 New
    +3
    As one political scientist said: "There will be no Third World War, but they won’t leave stone unturned in the struggle for peace (read democracy)" fellow
  4. The comment was deleted.
  5. Denis
    Denis 3 July 2013 07: 42 New
    0
    reduces the effectiveness of asymmetric warfare
    Can there still be questions? Our probable friends are only capable of this and poor
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 3 July 2013 07: 46 New
      0
      Quote: Denis
      Can there still be questions?

      Well, considering what you wrote in your koment deleted by you, I won’t ask questions. I just don't see the point hi
      1. Denis
        Denis 3 July 2013 08: 20 New
        0
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        don't see the point
        I, too, that's why I removed
  6. domokl
    domokl 3 July 2013 08: 29 New
    +5
    Tolkovo. The analysis was short and capacious. But the main thing, and Mirza, is a person close to the government, is that Baku makes it clear that we will not get involved in a military adventure.
    1. kNow
      kNow 3 July 2013 10: 01 New
      +6
      Quote: domokl
      Tolkovo. The analysis was short and capacious. But the main thing, and Mirza, is a person close to the government, is that Baku makes it clear that we will not get involved in a military adventure.

      Official Baku screams about it at the top of its lungs, but no one hears us, the Americans recorded us as friends of Russia, the Russians as friends of the United States. And oh, we don’t want to be between two anvils with all the attendant consequences.
  7. ed65b
    ed65b 3 July 2013 08: 31 New
    +1
    Heydar Mirza’s normal response to fans is to virtually wave their fists.
    1. fisherman
      fisherman 3 July 2013 10: 23 New
      +1
      Yes

      while everything is very consistent
  8. papss
    papss 3 July 2013 10: 08 New
    0
    We are already experiencing some lack of preparedness.
    says US chief of staff martin Dempsey ... and what is it? Money is not printed? Slightly cut the budget and that's it ... no readiness ...?
  9. individual
    individual 3 July 2013 10: 33 New
    +2
    The fact is that Azerbaijan, as an independent player in regional geopolitics, writes an expert on foreign policy at President of Azerbaijan Heydar Mirza.
    That's what the expert of the president of Azerbaijan should say.
    But the realities are, as always, different.
    Baku’s independent policy ends after it leaves the state’s borders.
    In the south, Iran makes adjustments for geopolitics, in the north of Russia, in the west, Georgian and Armenian interests, in the east, the problem of the division of the Caspian with Turkmenistan and the enormous pressure of the US and NATO. To this is added the upcoming Islamic fundamentalism.
    This is what I want to hear from an expert in Azerbaijan.
    1. kNow
      kNow 3 July 2013 10: 55 New
      +3
      Quote: individ
      independent player in regional geopolitics

      Quote: individ
      In the south, Iran makes adjustments for geopolitics, in the north of Russia, in the west, Georgian and Armenian interests, in the east, the problem of the division of the Caspian with Turkmenistan and the enormous pressure of the USA and NATO. To this is added the upcoming Islamic fundamentalism

      An independent player and an influential player are slightly different things. You write about the influence of Azerbaijan abroad, he writes about the influence of other countries on Azerbaijan
  10. ed65b
    ed65b 3 July 2013 11: 47 New
    0
    No one will ever agree on the division of the Caspian. All countries look at the Caspian Sea in different ways. Russia and Iran in their own way, the rest as they like. If Gazprom doesn’t allow pipes along the bottom of the Caspian Sea from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, a hedgehog is understandable. Indeed capitalism is denyuzhki. And they do not care.
    1. smersh70
      smersh70 6 July 2013 12: 17 New
      0
      An unexpected turn has taken shape in Russian-Azerbaijani relations. During a telephone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the Russian President invited his Azerbaijani counterpart to visit Moscow. This was reported by virtualaz.org, citing a senior source in the Azerbaijani government.
      According to the information, the telephone conversation was rather warm, which gives reason to say that there has been a relative warming in relations between the two countries.
      Although the exact date of this visit has not yet been announced, it is known that it will take place before the October presidential election in Azerbaijan.
      It should be noted that the Kremlin’s press service reported on the eve that a telephone conversation took place between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin. During the conversation, the heads of the two countries discussed topical issues of bilateral cooperation and a plan for further contacts at the highest level.
      The source also said that the telephone conversation took place at the initiative of the Russian side, and according to the diplomatic protocol, information about the telephone conversation should have been disseminated by the Kremlin press service. According to some experts, this telephone conversation portends a sensational turn in relations between the two countries. It is noteworthy that after Putin's second rise to power, no official meetings were held between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia.
  11. ed65b
    ed65b 3 July 2013 11: 49 New
    +3
    Guys, let's forget the Karabakh on this branch, we are not talking about it at all.
    1. smersh70
      smersh70 6 July 2013 12: 16 New
      -1
      Quote: ed65b
      , we are not talking about him at all.




      Listen to Hasharat! In the Caspian, 3 countries act as a united front ......
  12. razved
    razved 3 July 2013 14: 25 New
    -1
    In my opinion, the whole idea of ​​the article is true, the only one. what causes doubt is that "Azerbaijan is an independent player in regional geopolitics, and in terms of geopolitics of the South Caucasus it is a key and only truly independent player with its own interests"
    1. Yeraz
      Yeraz 3 July 2013 19: 50 New
      +1
      Quote: razved
      In my opinion, the whole idea of ​​the article is true, the only one. what causes doubt is that "Azerbaijan is an independent player in regional geopolitics, and in terms of geopolitics of the South Caucasus it is a key and only truly independent player with its own interests"

      Well, of course, everything is somewhat dependent on what, the same also depends on some factors. The idea was probably that Azerbaijan is much more independent in comparison with other states of the South Caucasus, which is true Georgia is the USA plus huge dependence from Baku and Turkey, Armenia is another 1 subsidized region. Therefore, against this background, Azerbaijan is many times more independent player in the region.