Military Review

Assessment of the situation in Tajikistan on the eve of the presidential election

15
Assessment of the situation in Tajikistan on the eve of the presidential election In November of this year, presidential elections will be held in Tajikistan. The reports from this country are alarming - the authorities have stepped up pressure on the opposition, and in fact deprive the current President Emomali Rakhmon of real competitors. At the same time, Tajikistan’s relations with Russia are deteriorating. To the extent that assumptions about a change in foreign policy orientation of Dushanbe began to acquire an affirmative character.


The New Tajikistan party, still unregistered in the country, came under repression. The leader of the initiative to create a party, the chairman of the Coordinating Council of the Association of Entrepreneurs, the former Minister of Industry of the Republic, Zayed Saidov, was under investigation and accused of corruption, extortion and polygamy. The project to create this party turned out to be so good that the authorities even in their infancy saw him as a serious threat.

Two other opposition parties - the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) and the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) are under strong pressure. The IRPT is the most influential party. The candidate, who will be supported by the Islamic party, will have significant chances of winning the elections. This is the second largest political party of the republic.

Attacking opposition parties today, the authorities are hitting their own positions, on stability and on the interests of citizens, polarizing society and strengthening the positions of the radicals. And this is Hizbut Tahrir and the Salafis, who more and more successfully find their way to the hearts of young people who are disillusioned with legal opposition parties, accusing them of flirting with power and the inability to resist the arbitrariness of the administrative machinery with its corruption.

The current head of state, Emomali Rakhmon, has not yet announced his intention to run for another seven-year presidential term. Since November 1992, he has been the permanent leader of Tajikistan. In 2003, a referendum was held on amending the Constitution. According to the amendments, the term of office of the president increased from 5 to 7 years and was limited to two terms. In addition, in one of the points it was stipulated that the previous presidential terms were nullified and so he went to the polls in the 2006 year for the first time.

Given the certain closeness of the Tajik political society, familiarization with the positions of the parties - the SDPT and the IRPT is of undoubted interest, especially since this state has traditionally been a strategic ally of Russia. 201-I Russian military base is deployed in the republic. And in Russia there are about two million citizens of Tajikistan who are directly or indirectly involved in the life of our society. However, relations between countries have recently cooled. Experts see the reason for this as E. Rakhmon’s intractability regarding the extension of the lease dates for the Russian base and the transfer of the Aini military airfield located near Gissar to Moscow. Behind this object is a backstage geopolitical dispute, since India was involved in its modernization. Dushanbe is not averse to leasing Aini to Americans when they leave Afghanistan.

About what is happening in the republic, with which tensions in the Russian-Tajik relations can be connected, the chairman of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan Muhiddin Kabiri says:

- The recent disagreements between Moscow and Dushanbe gave reason to talk about the deterioration of relations between the two countries. The media discusses the change in the foreign policy vector of Tajikistan. What is actually happening, why is this happening and what can be done to improve the historically friendly relations between the two countries?

- Russia and Tajikistan are strategic partners, and this status is enshrined in many interstate documents. Representatives of both states are constantly talking about this and, most importantly, the population supports the line of their government in this direction. At least in Tajikistan there is no political force that would not consider strategic partnership with Russia a priority. In Russia, on the contrary, there are a lot of politicians and political forces who have an alternative opinion, but praise be to Allah, they are in the minority. But why then there are difficulties in the relationship? Most likely, we have a different approach to the issue of strategic partnership. We have different expectations from each other, sometimes not always real. I do not know the level of relations between the presidents of Russia and Tajikistan, and I cannot appreciate them, but it seems that they understand the essence of last year’s agreements in different ways. It is about extending the lease of the base, supplying fuel and other issues.

As for the change of the vector of Tajikistan in the direction of the United States, I do not think it is worth sounding the alarm. However, the United States made it clear that they want to see Uzbekistan rather than Tajikistan as their strategic partner in the region. Without going into details, it is safe to say that both states are doomed to cooperate. And we must proceed from this. Who needs someone more is another question.

- Moscow has already ratified the agreement on the 201 military base deployed in Tajikistan. Dushanbe delays. What is the reason?

- It is necessary to understand whether this question was initially attached to others or was discussed separately. For example, were the conditions for the stay of the base in relation to the abolition of duties on petroleum products from Russia not considered: you are duty-free fuels and lubricants for us, and we have a base for 49 years. Unfortunately, the negotiations were closed and there was very little information. And in general, the Tajik public was misled by our own officials and experts. There was a lot of pathos around this subject matter and it was stated too loudly that in the future there would be a charge for any foreign military base. On the basis of the duration of stay of the base, they were silent. And there is no specifics. I think that our diplomacy is again in an awkward position. Many experts say that the Tajik side has made big enough concessions in this matter. For example, that Russia will not pay for the base, that the length of stay is extended by 49 years. And all this in exchange for Russia's support of a high-level presidential candidate from the ruling party. But so far this has not happened and is unlikely to happen. Because the question is very delicate. And Russia is no longer the same.

Sooner or later the Parliament of Tajikistan ratifies the agreement on the military base. To say that the process is delayed is somewhat premature, time is still there. Moreover, there are other interstate agreements that Tajikistan ratified, while Russia, on the contrary, has postponed. For example, an agreement on dual citizenship between Russia and Tajikistan. Of course, this does not mean that we should link these two agreements and bargain.

- In Russia there are a large number of migrants from Tajikistan. It is no secret that if the policy of Dushanbe does not change, they can be expelled to their homeland. How realistic is this scenario and what does Tajikistan expect in this case?

“We all know that our migrants are our strength, on the one hand, they are supported by the economy, and our weakness, on the other. They are the first to feel all the changes in relations between Russia and Tajikistan. The task of any state is to take care of the welfare of its citizens, wherever they are. For any government, caring for its citizens abroad is not only a matter of politics or economics, it is also a matter of honor. Our migrants should not become a bargaining chip or lever of pressure when resolving disagreements between the governments of the two states. I don’t think that it will be the expulsion of our migrants. Probably, there will be demonstrative deportations, as was the case with Russian pilots detained in Dushanbe. There may also be stricter rules for the stay of migrants in Russia. Mass deportations will lead to increased social tensions in Tajikistan. And neither Moscow nor Dushanbe wants this. Russia is interested in stable Tajikistan, in a stable region, and the stability of the region as a whole depends on the stability of Tajikistan.

- This year presidential elections will be held in Tajikistan. What is the pre-election situation? According to media reports, pressure is being put on you and your party; has the situation changed now?

- Naturally, with the upcoming elections, the situation will get hot. It occurs in all countries with similar conditions. Attitudes toward our party changed long before the presidential election. Since the end of last year, we have begun to feel pressure at all levels and everywhere. Very rude and sometimes provocatively behave representatives of the authorities. Definitely this will not add transparency to the elections. Over the years of the existence of the IRPT, we have faced harassment and obstacles. But they always came out stronger and more united. Survive and the current pressure. But what the other side will gain from this is the question. The IRPT decided to participate in these elections. But the candidate has not yet decided. There is still time, and we will proceed exclusively from the interests of the state and the people. Even if our decision does not really please someone.
Author:
Originator:
http://ru.journal-neo.org/2013/07/01/rus-otsenka-situatsii-v-tadzhikistane-nakanune-prezidentskih-vy-borov-chast-1/
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  1. Denis
    Denis 2 July 2013 07: 47
    +2
    The reports from this country are alarming - the authorities have increased pressure on the opposition, and in fact deprived incumbent President Emomali Rahmon of real competitors.
    But who should this worry, their opposition and our human rights defenders, grant-eaters?
    So they are of little interest to the people
    Rakhmon will not be bullied as with airplanes and there is more money than you need to ask for the base of the 201st division and will be president
  2. fenix57
    2 July 2013 08: 04
    +1
    M-yes, truly the East is a delicate matter, as it once was. It would not hurt to recall one truth: the frayer's greed will destroy. Better, take off our leadership, otherwise they’ll generally sit on the neck. hi

    "... an agreement on dual citizenship between Russia and Tajikistan."- That's just not enough.
    1. Denis
      Denis 2 July 2013 08: 56
      +1
      Quote: fenix57
      "... an agreement on dual citizenship between Russia and Tajikistan." - this was just not enough.
      No, they wanted independence, get it!
    2. Denis
      Denis 2 July 2013 23: 58
      0
      Quote: fenix57
      generally sit on the neck
      Are already sitting
      The same notorious city transport is self-sustaining? No, the state of our taxes that do not steal, pays extra. And gastric taxes who pay?
      And yet, and still you can continue
  3. papss
    papss 2 July 2013 10: 08
    +2
    Rahmon must think now ... how to be accommodating with Russia ... from the south, the threat of controlled chaos, from the east, China. Well, the fact that he "beats" the opposition is understandably strengthening the power, and the United States has moved to the Uzbeks - there is no one to show democracy to anyone ...
  4. KG_patriot_last
    KG_patriot_last 2 July 2013 10: 20
    -1
    Rahmon should find a successor and peacefully transfer power. The Islamic Revival Party in them, as we see from the interview of its chairman, is also more or less sane. But the matter is not in the parties. If you tighten the screws all the time, underground fighters funded by the drug lords will appear ... There is news that the land has been sold to China, that they cut everyone out in Badakhshan and so on. People may be puzzled by these questions ...
    And indeed, age. I’m afraid that Turkmenistan will not agree to the elite peacefully, with a sudden death ... Moscow needs to monitor this aspect too ... After all, the agreements will go to hell if the struggle for power starts there. They have already survived an armed citizen ...
    1. Denis
      Denis 2 July 2013 10: 59
      +1
      Quote: KG_patriot_last
      Rahmon should find a successor and peacefully transfer power
      This is from the realm of fiction, and not even scientific, but utopian. Who voluntarily refuses such a feeder? Feeding troughs not only of their own, but of the entire clan
  5. albai
    albai 2 July 2013 12: 02
    -1
    Quote: Denis
    This is from the realm of fiction, and not even scientific, but utopian. Who voluntarily refuses such a feeder? Feeding troughs not only of their own, but of the entire clan

    Well, this is not entirely fiction. The fact is that Tajiks see who is worth what. General impoverishment, idle industry, ruined agriculture, sale of land for debts, total blackouts in winter, with such powerful hydroelectric power plants. And the people are stopped only by the horror of the recent clashes with the UTO. Everyone remembers literally yesterday's events in Badakhshan, where the locals showed the center they say not to go. Yes, and hemorrhoids with the guys from the neighbors of the IRA. Numerous bandits of various colors are always at the ready there. So Rahmon is thinking. But your own ass, and even a whole one, is always more necessary, therefore it can make a knight's move. Apparently looking for a super obedient "ass" wants to do as a GDP with a LADY. I don't know if it will. And drugs are pouring generously from all holes, and precisely from the borders of Tajikistan. The Uzbeks and the Turkmens closed tightly. Border guards, cops, prosecutors, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in one bundle, the entire south of Kyrgyzstan in metastases of drug trafficking. Drug lords of Tajikistan and the south of Kyrgyzstan rule. It is just an iron curtain and it is on the borders of Tajikistan. Otherwise, Rahmon, pleasing to them, will sit on the throne.
    1. KG_patriot_last
      KG_patriot_last 2 July 2013 15: 38
      -1
      I partially agree, but I do not agree that only Tajiks and Kyrgyz have problems. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are not completely blocked from this problem either. Otherwise, where would all the drugs go from Kyrgyzstan? Drug rushing through ALL of these countries and enters Russia and China. It turns out that Russia and China cannot completely block the border from drugs ...

      So I agree that the drug problem exists, but I don’t agree that only we have it. No need to simplify the situation and put the blame only on 2 these countries.
      1. Semurg
        Semurg 2 July 2013 18: 47
        0
        Quote: KG_patriot_last
        I partially agree, but I do not agree that only Tajiks and Kyrgyz have problems. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are not completely blocked from this problem either. Otherwise, where would all the drugs go from Kyrgyzstan? Drug rushing through ALL of these countries and enters Russia and China. It turns out that Russia and China cannot completely block the border from drugs ...

        So I agree that the drug problem exists, but I don’t agree that only we have it. No need to simplify the situation and put the blame only on 2 these countries.

        It’s for sure that narcotics floats from Afghanistan in all directions with a full-flowing river, and not a single country in our region can say that they have problems with heroin. And all the transit countries themselves densely sit on the consumption of drugs, only if coke flows back to the west and chemistry, and we are all in the same submarine and we must either sink together or escape.
      2. albai
        albai 2 July 2013 19: 43
        -1
        Quote: KG_patriot_last
        Otherwise, where would all the drugs go from Kyrgyzstan?

        All drugs through Russia (in which a large part remains) goes to Europe.
        Quote: KG_patriot_last
        No need to simplify the situation and put the blame on only 2 of these countries.
        Due to the fact that the main route (eastern) of Tajikistan - Kyrgyzstan - Kazakhstan - Russia, Kyrgyzstan has become like a crossroads. And the convenience of the situation is dictated by the algorithm of action: any powerful clans (mainly those in power) of the south are sitting on drug trafficking. Already how many they were caught in the north with kilograms and even more gerycha. Colonels of the cops, deputy prosecutors, employees of state agencies from the region and above go along the shoals, accompanying the poison to Russia. In Kyrgyzstan, a considerable part of the people are injected with hard drugs. On South
        in any brothel, used syringes are scattered around. It is a fact. And also the fact that neither the Uzbeks nor the Turkmen have the above.
        1. KG_patriot_last
          KG_patriot_last 2 July 2013 20: 20
          -1
          Accusations of drug addiction of Kyrgyz people and whitewashing of Uzbeks and Turkmens are unfounded.
          1. albai
            albai 2 July 2013 21: 11
            -1
            Do you know anything about the murder of the Shonkoyev police station ?, look at the criminal report of the Akipress, 24kg, yes, all the news feeds in Central Asia, you will not see anything about the Uzbeks or the Turkmens anywhere, and on the contrary a lot of news about KG. Nobody blames and whitewashes, if you live in the Kyrgyz Republic, you should see everything that you said.
  6. Semurg
    Semurg 2 July 2013 12: 16
    +1
    When a party with the name of the Islamic Renaissance Party begins the struggle for power, it annoys me a little because I think it is god-god, Caesar-Caesarean. I think it’s right when there is a ban on party names like Christian or Islamic or for example Kazakh or Russian. The party should appeal to the entire civil society and not to a separate category on the basis of faith or nationality.
    1. teodorh
      teodorh 2 July 2013 13: 56
      0
      Quote: Semurg
      The party should appeal to the entire civil society and not to a separate category on the basis of faith or nationality.


      Yes. We were smart enough to legally prohibit the creation of a party on a national and religious basis.
    2. smile
      smile 2 July 2013 14: 49
      0
      Semurg
      The devil knows ... on the one hand, you are right (I’m behind my arms and legs). and on the other hand, the party, theoretically, is created from individuals. united by any common idea ... and if the idea is not extremist, does not contradict the law .. then people who want to create such a party will go into the category of dissatisfied, who will begin to balamute the people about the fact that their rights are infringed ... and will be formally right ... all the more so since nothing will stop them, having unfolded on the scandal with a ban, to subsequently create a party with a different name, thus circumventing any ban ... while having the image of martyrs who suffered from power .... by some bans -My, not to manage and a problem cannot be solved.
  7. Nayhas
    Nayhas 2 July 2013 12: 38
    0
    For some reason, all articles on Central Asia include a description of the interests of Russia and the United States, while the most important player in this field remains in the shadow and the authors do not take into account his interests. Tajikistan will soon turn into a province of China which does not care about the interests of both Russia and the United States. Rahmon will not go anywhere, he will rule until they take him forward with his feet or the Chinese replace him with another ...
    1. teodorh
      teodorh 2 July 2013 13: 59
      0
      Quote: Nayhas
      Tajikistan will soon turn into a province of China


      Why do they need such a problem? All that they want they get. If you make a province, you need to create infrastructure and raise the socio-economic status of people. Wouldn't it be better to agree with the president?
      1. Nayhas
        Nayhas 2 July 2013 14: 24
        0
        There are already quite a lot of Chinese living in Tajikistan (mostly illegal immigrants), it sounds somewhat ridiculous, but Chinese migrant workers have flooded the Tajik labor market. Moreover, Tajikistan borrowed a lot of money from China, all joint projects are carried out with Chinese money by Chinese workers, for example, Huawei for 22 million. he installs the Safe City system in Dushanbe, Chinese money, equipment, too, whose execution is already clear ... in fact, Rahmon performs the functions of the Chinese governor ...