Military Review

Ulyukayev advises to abandon the currency

51
Ulyukayev advises to abandon the currencyDespite the continuing growth of the rate of the main world currencies against the Russian ruble, the financial authorities of the Russian Federation convince the population and business that there is no need to transfer funds into foreign currency. “It seems to me that my colleagues in the central bank are rather efficiently moving towards inflationary charging, towards a freely floating ruble regime. The current level of fluctuation is not lower than it was several years ago. That is, there is no sense for the population or business to switch from rubles in foreign currency and back, "- said the head of the Ministry of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev.


Recall that the Bank of Russia plans to switch to pure inflationary pricing from 2015, when the inflation target will be an unconditional priority in monetary policy.

"This is a game in which the population always loses and the one who receives the conversion fee wins. I am deeply convinced that there will not be a high rate volatility and it will be moderate," Ulyukayev said on the air of the Final NTV program.

According to the minister, the level of world oil prices in the foreseeable future will remain stable, which, in turn, will protect the ruble from significant fluctuations. "Oil prices are a serious matter, as global changes have occurred in the commodity market. It seems to me that the forecast values ​​that we are appealing with now are $ 101 per barrel, which we now have for the near future, is reasonable and very “Very worthy", - summed up the head of the Ministry of Economic Development.

Meanwhile, confidence in the inviolability of world oil prices has recently been called into question because of sharply increased economic risks in China. One by one, experts talked about the danger of a liquidity crisis and the collapse of the PRC banking system due to the extremely low quality of loans. If such a crisis does occur, the status quo prevailing in the oil market may well be destroyed and the price of black gold, largely supported by China, will go down.

But the main threat to the position of the ruble remains concerns related to the imminent collapse of the US Federal Reserve program of quantitative easing, or in fact, reducing the dollar supply in the market. The slowdown of the American printing press will increase the attractiveness of the dollar on the market. In this case, the appreciation of the US currency against the ruble will be almost guaranteed, regardless of the situation around oil.

The head of the Federal Reserve has more than once opaquely hinted at the imminent curtailment of the program, which seems to start sooner or later. If this all adds up to a reduction in the cost of oil and the inevitable increase in capital outflows, the weakening of the ruble can be very significant.

It is worthwhile for people and businesses to create their own foreign exchange reserves with such prospects - it is up to them to decide.
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  1. Canep
    Canep 2 July 2013 15: 21
    +5
    Dollars are definitely not worth buying.
    The external debt of the US government (only the government) is 16,8 trillion dollars, for clarity, a billion bucks in cash in banknotes 100 dollars in volume will take about 1 railway carriage, then the US debt is 16800 carriages of money, or 240 freight trains, or 4 medium container ships, or more than one of the largest container ship. And this debt is growing by 3,5 wagons per day.
    1. Nevsky
      Nevsky 2 July 2013 15: 26
      +4
      They will go even further soon. Refuse not only from the currency. Instead of money there will be chips or this crap:

      1. ioann1
        ioann1 2 July 2013 15: 51
        +5
        Largely from the plot, you can agree. Humanity has fallen in its sin and continues to sin: all 10 Commandments are violated throughout the world every second. Monetary relations, in most cases, are accompanied by a departure from God.
      2. SlavaS
        SlavaS 2 July 2013 19: 04
        0
        and you will come to the store and they will tell you there is no connection with the bank !, and in the winter the heating season, oil should not get cheaper, demand is growing.
    2. il grand casino
      il grand casino 2 July 2013 15: 33
      +2
      Quote: Canep
      Dollars are definitely not worth buying.
      The external debt of the US government (only the government) is 16,8 trillion dollars, for clarity, a billion bucks in cash in banknotes 100 dollars in volume will take about 1 railway carriage, then the US debt is 16800 carriages of money, or 240 freight trains, or 4 medium container ships, or more than one of the largest container ship. And this debt is growing by 3,5 wagons per day.


      This is all clear. But other currencies are pretty much dependent on the dollar ... a dilemma, however. Although today I am more impressed by the Euro.
      P.S. Money must be stored in gold))))
      1. Vlad-32
        Vlad-32 2 July 2013 16: 39
        +5
        I agree with your P.S. It should be stored in gold, if you have them. And the greater mass of the population does not have a headache about it.
        1. tronin.maxim
          tronin.maxim 2 July 2013 17: 23
          +2
          Quote: Vlad-32
          I agree with your P.S. It should be stored in gold, if you have them. And the greater mass of the population does not have a headache about it.

          Rather, the customs union and a single currency.
        2. Scoun
          Scoun 2 July 2013 18: 26
          +1
          Quote: Vlad-32
          I agree with your P.S.

          and I agree with his PS ... and what is best stored in gold
          in general, it’s freezing me lately how they tell us about what inflation must be stopped .... and at the same time they themselves raise tariffs.. how much tariffs have increased by so much in general inflation is rising .. if I start paying 10% more for housing and communal services I need to compensate for these 10% percent .. and others have a similar situation .. honestly .. I don’t understand stupidly .. how our economists politicians can talk about stopping inflation and increasing tariffs ..
          tariffs reach the level of European ones and incomes are slightly higher than "Central Asian" ...
      2. True
        True 2 July 2013 22: 39
        +1
        P.S. Money must be stored in gold)))

        You are absolutely right. Fortunately in northern Honduras, anyone can buy them.
      3. abdrah
        abdrah 3 July 2013 03: 06
        +1
        the moment of your gold exchange is interesting, in the most negative way (when the walls have been stuck in dollars, euro latrines, etc.) for food — will there be the equivalent of at least 100 gram bullion in the food shop of that time and what will other buyers say? in my opinion silver is preferable and preferably not kilograms.
    3. Yarosvet
      Yarosvet 2 July 2013 16: 24
      +7
      Quote: Canep
      Dollars are definitely not worth buying.
      US Government External Debt ...

      It doesn’t say anything: green is the most stable currency simply because they agreed.
      Its inflation is on average = 3%, and so on around the world.
      All the ups and downs are due to the games of central banks (in our case, the dollar value is overestimated by about 65% against the ruble, but in reality it costs somewhere around 18-19 rubles).

      If it crashes when it crashes, it will be a deliberate collapse, unprofitable for anyone in the current conditions, especially since the financial wealth of the "elites" is also stored in dollar terms - the buck will be kept to the last, and that's all.
    4. MG42
      MG42 2 July 2013 17: 15
      +3
      Quote: Canep
      The external debt of the US government (government alone) is $ 16,8 trillion,

      That is yes. But only the dollar is the world's reserve currency. They can raise the level of public debt as they please. And with the help of such structures as the IMF and the World Bank, they also give loans to other central banks in dollars too. The headquarters of these monsters in the USA ..
    5. sub307
      sub307 2 July 2013 17: 37
      0
      Now of course - not worth it. And, here, to buy last January for 31,5 and sell now for 32,8 is quite.
      1. Scoun
        Scoun 2 July 2013 19: 14
        0
        Quote: sub307
        And, here, to buy last January for 31,5 and sell now for 32,8 is quite

        it is certainly true))) but it may work out like that ..
        I bought today for 33.00 in December I tried to sell for 20)))
        I certainly exaggerate a little .. but this can happen .. or the mice will chew)))
        and gold it and gold for how many centuries))
      2. Leisure
        Leisure 2 July 2013 19: 56
        0
        Consider the bank commission, please, and the cost of money in the future.
      3. sad1940
        sad1940 2 July 2013 21: 12
        +1
        Quote: sub307
        Now of course - not worth it. And, here, to buy last January for 31,5 and sell now for 32,8 is quite.

        What's the point? This is if you have a couple of hundred lemons, then of course, but if you have a couple of thousand, it’s ridiculous!
      4. True
        True 2 July 2013 22: 45
        +1
        4%. This is less than inflation. You can put it in the bank, it will be more profitable.
    6. 755962
      755962 2 July 2013 22: 15
      +1
      Quote: Canep
      for clarity, a billion bucks in cash in banknotes $ 100 in volume will take about 1 railway wagon, which means the US debt is 16800 wagons of money, or 240 freight trains, or 4 medium container ships, or more than one of the largest container ships. And this debt is growing by 3,5 wagons per day.

      And if in such bills ..
      1. MG42
        MG42 3 July 2013 00: 03
        +1
        It's a souvenir note it says there
        and this lemon too
    7. buzuke
      buzuke 3 July 2013 12: 56
      0
      The head of the Fed has repeatedly hinted at the speedy curtailment of the program, which is likely to start sooner or later.

      not in this life! with such a budget deficit and such an external debt, they have no other choice than the machine. Bernanke has already turned on the back, like you didn’t understand me correctly, we won’t cancel anything yet
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. Nobody except us
    Nobody except us 2 July 2013 15: 25
    +4
    They also reassured us before the 2008 crisis.
    1. optimist
      optimist 2 July 2013 15: 40
      +5
      Add: in the 98th too. When our authorities declare that there won’t be any pi, it’s worth understanding exactly the opposite !!!
  4. krez-74
    krez-74 2 July 2013 15: 28
    +3
    Wow I feel unkind all this will end ... They know how to insulate our people!
  5. Alexey M
    Alexey M 2 July 2013 15: 37
    +4
    Yuan buy. wink
    1. sergey72
      sergey72 2 July 2013 15: 48
      +5
      Better to invest in something. For example, in the purchase of "Kalashnikov", I'm sure it will come in handy soon. laughing
      1. fzr1000
        fzr1000 2 July 2013 16: 13
        +2
        Then immediately set aside a lawyer or a luxury camera.
  6. kind
    kind 2 July 2013 15: 43
    +2
    Buy Gold Diamonds! Definitely not mistaken !!!
    1. lelikas
      lelikas 2 July 2013 17: 15
      +2
      interesting - the cost of a gram of gold in four years increased from 1tr to 1,3tr - the same 1tr put in the bank would bring almost four times more money in four years - somewhere around 1,572 at 12% per annum.
      1. poquello
        poquello 2 July 2013 21: 55
        +1
        "Interestingly, the cost of a gram of gold in four years has grown from c1tr to 1,3tr - the same 1tr put in the bank would have brought almost twice as much money in four years, somewhere around 1,572 at 12% per annum."

        And what prevents keeping in a bank in gold or platinum?
        1. lelikas
          lelikas 3 July 2013 00: 42
          0
          Quote: poquello
          And what prevents keeping in a bank in gold or platinum?


          Well, if you just store it, it will be more expensive for yourself (+ a big difference in the rates of buying and selling + vat on bullion), if as a "golden" contribution -6-7% of the yield.
  7. slaventi
    slaventi 2 July 2013 15: 53
    +1
    Citizens keep money in a savings bank ?!
    -And even better in gold.
  8. Ascetic
    Ascetic 2 July 2013 15: 57
    +8
    ... Any instability in the world leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate and an increase in demand for it in the world. Gold is even better, but the dollar is more affordable and seems to people more reliable, therefore, when the national currency depreciates, many tend to buy the growing dollar, if, of course, there are "extra" savings. ... So it is worth sowing instability - by doing so, the US increases the demand for the dollar, which is the main item of their export. There is also the euro, but lately, a strong euro currency is not needed primarily by the US itself, so they are drowning the EU. How does this situation affect Russia? Academician Glazyev
    ...
    The monetary policy pursued by the Russian Central Bank is a continuation of the policy of the US Federal Reserve System: Our Central Bank prints rubles only for the purchase of foreign currency. Moreover, currency regulation is virtually completely absent, and we are de facto part of the American financial system ”
    .
    That is, the Central Bank printed rubles for the purchase of dollars. When he sells currency, on the contrary, he “swallows up” rubles
    As a result, there is a contraction of the ruble money supply. All gold and foreign currency reserves (gold and foreign exchange reserves) of the Central Bank should support the entire volume of the national currency. There are fewer dollars in gold and foreign currency reserves - the volume of the national currency in the economy should also decrease proportionally.
    During the crisis, all “Westerners” want to buy dollars in order to bring them abroad. The lack of dollars on the exchange makes up for the Central Bank. Having sold dollars, he receives rubles from the “speculator”. These rubles are destroyed, they disappear to nowhere.
    Purely theoretically, the Russian economy can remain without rubles at all. Therefore, the Central Bank just in a period of instability and reduces the ruble against the dollarThen the total money supply of rubles will be significant, with a reduction in the number of dollars in gold reserves. That is why during a crisis the dollar always rises in price and non-reserve currencies, including our ruble, always become cheaper.
    It is such a preventive depreciation of the ruble, in anticipation of a new crisis, we have observed recently. the ruble exchange rate (hryvnia, dollar, euro) today has nothing to do with the state of the state economy. Exchange rates live a completely separate life, so you should not panic over a cheaper ruble, especially since there are not so many of them, and this is almost 80% of the country's population. Moreover, prices for services and goods are rising regardless of whether the exchange rate is favorable or not.
    1. fzr1000
      fzr1000 2 July 2013 16: 15
      -1
      "These rubles are being destroyed, they are disappearing nowhere."

      Something new in economics. Do not explain?
      1. Ascetic
        Ascetic 2 July 2013 17: 26
        +3
        Quote: fzr1000
        Something new in economics. Do not explain?


        That's what Glazyev says: “Our Central Bank prints rubles only for the purchase of foreign currency”. When he sells currency, then he conversely rubles "Absorbs")
    2. Uncle
      Uncle 2 July 2013 17: 05
      0
      Quote: Ascetic
      therefore, one should not panic over a cheaper ruble, especially since there are not many of them, and this is almost 80% of the country's population.

      80% is very optimistic. Maybe for Moscow. But in reality, no matter how 97%.
    3. PValery53
      PValery53 2 July 2013 17: 14
      0
      As for "Any instability in the world leads to an increase in the dollar exchange rate and an increase in demand for it in the world" - this situation does not climb into any gate! For all crises, the USA needs to pay, and not vice versa, when all crises bring benefits to America! - It is imperative that the whole world should (!) Lower the dollar rate! (Although this is probably unprofitable for the state machines, opponents of the dollar, but it is beneficial for the peoples)
    4. Dilshat
      Dilshat 2 July 2013 18: 43
      0
      If so, is Russia a colony and has virtually no sovereignty?
      1. Leisure
        Leisure 2 July 2013 20: 05
        +2
        We have a little sovereignty. Grabs him to "yap".
  9. pensioner
    pensioner 2 July 2013 16: 32
    0
    Here, where I don’t understand anything at all and never understood - it’s in the economy. But the situation is such that, apparently, will have to figure it out. Advise literature to the old man! I will be grateful!
    1. Yarosvet
      Yarosvet 2 July 2013 16: 45
      0
      Quote: retired
      Advise literature to the old man!

      School books, plus a healthy book with a complex title "Economics". laughing

      Well, Marx to the heap.
      1. pensioner
        pensioner 3 July 2013 07: 16
        0
        Thank! Marx - I heard. But I won’t have time to read on the go ... School books? Grandchildren will laugh ...healthy book with a complex title "Economics" - where to get?.
        1. Yarosvet
          Yarosvet 3 July 2013 17: 34
          0
          Quote: retired
          Grandchildren will laugh ...
          Maybe a little squeal. laughing
          But without school textbooks on economics, it will be difficult to figure out.

          - where to get?.
          The network may have, or in the book - but there it will be in the region of 2000, if not more,.
    2. starded
      starded 2 July 2013 16: 55
      0
      Read Nikolai Starikov. And many incomprehensions will become clear ...
      http://www.reeed.ru/lib/books/natsionalizatsiya_rublya_put_k_svobode_rossii/
      or here:
      http://www.reeed.ru/lib/authors/nikolai_viktorovich_starikov/
      And there is nothing to be wise, my friends!
      1. Yarosvet
        Yarosvet 2 July 2013 17: 02
        +1
        Quote: starded
        Read Nikolai Starikov. Many incomprehensions will become clear!

        Why not Fedorov and Kurginyan? laughing
      2. MG42
        MG42 2 July 2013 17: 08
        +2
        Starikov rollback pays for advertising?
    3. AK-47
      AK-47 2 July 2013 17: 04
      +1
      Quote: retired
      ... the situation is such that, apparently, you have to figure it out ...

      You have not tried to take sleeping pills at the same time as a laxative. A very interesting effect is obtained.
      good
      1. pensioner
        pensioner 3 July 2013 07: 18
        -1
        Thanks for the advice! Hope a proven tool? What doses are best to start with? In general, in more detail, in more detail ...
  10. PValery53
    PValery53 2 July 2013 16: 34
    +1
    It has long been clear that foreign economic interests should be connected with the ruble exchange rate not to the dollar, but to gold. - And what are we observing?! ..- Due to the fact that we are attached to the dollar (which is printed like candy wrappers, uncontrollably), we expose all our material resources in foreign trade in return for this waste paper. But do we need this?! ..- Are you really stupid or do you have all your money in dollars in Western banks?! ..- (there were strong words)! ..
  11. PValery53
    PValery53 2 July 2013 16: 39
    -1
    It seems that exchange rates are linked not to some absolute currency, gold, but to rivalry in the speed of printing of currency machines ...
    1. MG42
      MG42 2 July 2013 17: 03
      +2
      The US dollar has not been tied to gold for a long time ..
      Forty-two years ago, a rather radical event occurred. The then US president, Richard Nixon, canceled the Bretton Woods agreement. Under this agreement, world currencies were pegged to the US dollar, and the US dollar itself was pegged to gold. Formally, the central banks of other countries could require the United States to convert dollars into gold bullion. Although in practice this happened very rarely. Then the reason for refusing to link the US dollar with gold bars was largely due to the need to give flexibility to the exchange rates of various currencies. According to monetary theory, tight pegging of world currencies to the US dollar significantly limited the possibilities of world trade. At the same time, the binding of the US dollar to gold was generally considered as an anachronism, which only interferes with the global economy. And this is really correct. With all due respect to gold, by the beginning of the 70s, gold bullion was not as desirable on the world market as, for example, a barrel of oil. The times of the "gold rush" have gone down in history. Most likely, Nixon's decision was correct. It is flexible exchange rates that have created the world economy that we can observe today, with its huge capital market and rapidly growing global trading market.
      http://minfin.com.ua/blogs/okhrimenko/15976/
      1. PValery53
        PValery53 2 July 2013 18: 01
        0
        First, America launched its dollar into the world circulation, and then, having canceled the Bretton Woods agreement, refused to provide this dollar with gold, thereby opening the "Pandora's box" - leaving behind the opportunity to print green bills - dollars uncontrollably. And now the whole world work for them! - He keeps everyone for fools!
      2. PValery53
        PValery53 2 July 2013 18: 06
        0
        First, America launched its dollar into the world circulation, and then, having canceled the Bretton Woods agreement, refused to provide this dollar with gold, thereby opening the "Pandora's box" - leaving behind the opportunity to print green bills - dollars uncontrollably. And now the whole world work for them! - He keeps everyone for fools!
        1. MG42
          MG42 2 July 2013 18: 18
          +3
          Quote: PValery53
          leaving the possibility of uncontrolled printing of green pieces of paper - dollars. And now the whole world work for them! - Holds everyone for fools!

          This is the beauty of the world reserve currency.
      3. poquello
        poquello 2 July 2013 22: 22
        +1
        “With all due respect to gold, by the early 70s, gold bars were not as desirable on the world market as, for example, a barrel of oil. The times of the gold rush are history. Most likely, Nixon's decision was correct. flexible exchange rates created the global economy that we can observe today, with its huge capital market and a rapidly growing global trading market. "

        With all due respect to the flexible exchange rate, gold is not printed. And who has it more?
  12. honest jew
    honest jew 2 July 2013 16: 40
    +5
    According to the minister, the level of world oil prices in the foreseeable future will remain stable, which, in turn, will protect the ruble from significant fluctuations. "Oil prices are a serious matter, as global changes have occurred in the commodity market. It seems to me that the forecast values ​​that we are appealing with now are $ 101 per barrel, which we now have for the near future, is reasonable and very “Very worthy", - summed up the head of the Ministry of Economic Development.
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. individual
    individual 2 July 2013 16: 55
    +2
    Financiers speak a bird’s language with their targeting, conversion, and voluntary course - it’s not at all clear how
    US debt of $ 16 trillion, which is higher than their gross domestic product GDP! USA - The country is completely bankrupt. Has the very convertible currency and dictates to the rest of the world how to live ???

    Shocking Information Revealed About the amount of debts of all countries of the planet. The debt is an astronomical amount - more than 223 trillion dollars.
    The total size of world GDP last year amounted to a little more than $ 80 trillion. Thus, it turns out that all countries of the world have already borrowed such an amount of money that they can earn in three years ...
  15. PValery53
    PValery53 2 July 2013 16: 58
    +1
    To peg the ruble exchange rate to the price of only oil on the external market is, of course, primitive and belittles the influence of other sectors of the Russian economy. It turns out that our rest of the economy is negligible compared to the volume of oil sold. Thank you, "made me happy" ...
  16. MG42
    MG42 2 July 2013 17: 07
    +3
    Despite the continued growth in the exchange rate of major world currencies against the Russian ruble, the financial authorities of the Russian Federation convince the population and business that there is no need to transfer funds to foreign currency.

    Familiar <mantras> ..
    In Ukraine, the hryvnia rate has been tied to the US dollar already several. years and nevertheless regularly broadcast do not buy up the currency ..
  17. Was mammoth
    Was mammoth 2 July 2013 18: 29
    +2
    "This is a game in which the population always loses ...".
    What is there to comment on?
    "Article 7
    1. The Russian Federation is a social state, the policy of which is aimed at creating conditions that ensure a decent life and free human development. "
    Who is the criminal in the state?
    1. fisherman
      fisherman 3 July 2013 06: 48
      0
      "This is a game in which the population always loses, and the one who receives the commission for conversion wins. I am deeply convinced that there will be no high volatility of the exchange rate, and it will be moderate," Ulyukaev said


      great volatility, this is when the rate jumps from 25 rubles per dollar to 35, and often

      stifled volatility, this is when it is in a narrow range from 29 to 31

      in the second case, profits of speculators become less

      it is not clear why Ulyukaev called the currency speculators (individuals and legal entities) the population? :)
  18. ded10041948
    ded10041948 2 July 2013 18: 41
    +1
    He has such duties, advise!
  19. spirit
    spirit 2 July 2013 18: 51
    0
    We must ask Medvedev! And do the opposite)
  20. Bosk
    Bosk 2 July 2013 19: 08
    +1
    And why not start selling the same oil to the West for rubles yourself ... well, at some point it will be unprofitable ... but at the same time there should be demand for the ruble and, accordingly, its value.
    1. papss
      papss 2 July 2013 19: 28
      +2
      because the West won’t buy it for rubles ...
      1. Bosk
        Bosk 3 July 2013 19: 02
        0
        Well, don’t tell, don’t tell ... Maybe I’m wrong, but it seems to me that it’s not the West that rule with oil and gas, but the very opposite. Here, most likely the reason is that our cheeks do not want to lose profits.
  21. bubla5
    bubla5 2 July 2013 20: 28
    0
    another banker chatter, like they’ll stop printing bucks soon, let's buy
  22. vezunchik
    vezunchik 2 July 2013 21: 28
    +1
    People are waiting for default - loans depreciate! But seriously - when officials say that everything is fine - wait for the collapse ....
  23. fenix57
    fenix57 3 July 2013 00: 15
    +2
    Quote: sergey72
    Better to invest in something. For example, in the purchase of "Kalashnikov", I'm sure it will come in handy soon

    Quickly pay off and inflation is nothing! laughing