"If Russia is destined to be reborn, then only through Eurasianism."
A program article of the future President of the Russian Federation V. Putin “New integration project for Eurasia - the future that is born today” was published in the newspaper “Izvestia” from 3 in October 2011. The key phrase of the article was: “I am convinced that the creation of the Eurasian Union, effective integration is the path that will allow its participants to take a worthy place in the complex world of the XXI century. Only together can our countries be among the leaders of global growth and progress, success and prosperity. ”
What moments in this statement of Putin immediately attracted attention?
The first is the officially proclaimed refusal of Russia from the pro-Western motion vector and turning to the east, into the Eurasian space.
The second is a categorical appeal to the peoples (states) associated historical fate with Russia as the only way of survival and development. The phrase "only together our countries are capable" actually rejects all other options. The President of Belarus A. G. Lukashenko immediately responded, saying in Izvestia on October 17, 2011 that such integration “was, is and will be a natural way of development”. Also without alternatives. On October 25, President of Kazakhstan N. A. Nazarbayev (by the way, the first initiator of the Eurasian Union) published an article in the same Izvestia under an intriguing but profound title: “Eurasian Union: from an idea to a history of the future”, in which he said: “We are all we are witnessing the birth of a new unique Eurasian community of nations, which has not only rich experience in a joint past, but also an indivisible common history of the future. ” As you can see, in this profound phrase, alternatives to the Eurasian vector of development are not read. Summarizing the above, it can be stated: the leaders of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, although indirectly (not aloud), condemn the collapse of the USSR and return to the historical need to live and develop only together, in a single union of countries and peoples. Otherwise, we simply will not survive. And that's why.
BREATH OF CATASTROPHE
Human civilization is at the beginning of the XXI century in a transit state. Despite the fact that globalization has become the leading characteristic of the global systemic processes, within its framework nothing definite for the future of mankind, except the realities and a number of trends, is read. And these realities and tendencies are:
- world development as a reality, as a single planetary process does not exist; the East of the planet is developing, the West is degrading;
- the Western community, claiming to be a global leader, does not have a project and a model for the development of the world social and cultural space;
- The East of its global project as a whole also does not have, the leader of the East - China is developing in the contours of the regional-civilizational world order: “the multipolar world is Chinese-centric Asia” and claims world leadership in the economic and military-strategic spheres, declares the priority of Chinese values, which is hardly acceptable for other civilizations and cultures of modern humanity;
- the geopolitical structure of the world is changing, states lose their independence and subjectivity in world processes, become appendages and clients of the community of world bankers, in fact, their service personnel;
- the financial transnational community imposes a murderous socio-economic strategy on people, together with the leading Western states, it triggers global chaos, crises, wars, in order to weaken the system of nation-states, to establish a planetary monopoly of national-tribal banks and TNCs;
- the world ethno-cultural civilizations that form regional (Europe, North America) and inter-civilization associations (SCO, BRICS, ASEAN) are replacing states that are unable to compete with transnational structures.
- a network of shadow structures of parapolitical type becomes a real global force actively influencing the vector of world processes;
- the international security system that has developed after 1945 on the principles of parity between East and West, the balance of forces, checks and balances, in the conditions of Western domination in the world space is destroyed and does not guarantee safe development for any state, nation or nation, or humanity as a whole .
It can also be stated that a global revolution has been accomplished in the consciousness of humanity, in the understanding of the meaning of life and the functional purpose of man. The meaning of life and survival of people is not the comprehensive development of the individual, society, the planetary mind and culture, but the money needed by one for power, the other for crazy luxury, and the third to buy a piece of bread.
The first decade of the XXI century can be considered a decade of unrealized hopes. The grandiose plans and aspirations of the great powers, regional entities and transnational structures failed. The US plans to build a unipolar world did not materialize. If in the middle of 90's The US State Department confidently stated that America controls 191 the state of the world, and President Clinton solemnly proclaimed the twenty-first century as the “golden age” of the United States, but today in Washington a slightly different mood prevails.
If at the end of the twentieth century, Washington had some illusions about the possibility and even the reality of its own global global governance, then today the United States, as a country of high authority, controls world processes, and its elite speaks with dismay about the ways of survival of American society. It is interesting in this regard to follow the evolution of the views of the geopolitical planner Z. Brzezinski. He described it in the “Great Chessboard” (1998) and other works and speeches of “the charms and inevitability of the world order under the auspices of the USA”. In fact, Brzezinski carried out geopolitical planning of the world under the interests of America - more precisely, the American elite. Let us recall its passages in relation to Russia of the type: the future world order will be built on the ruins of Russia, at the expense of Russia and against Russia. Mr. Brzezinski paid particular attention to Eurasia, since he was an apologist for the well-known thesis of H. Mackinder that world domination is possible only in the case of domination in Eurasia, and the latter is impossible without domination over Russia. “America is interested in preserving and strengthening the existing pluralism on the map of Eurasia ... to prevent the emergence of a hostile coalition, especially a state capable of challenging the United States ... In the medium term, this should give way to the emergence of increasingly important and strategically compatible partners that, under the leadership The Americas could help create a trans-Eurasian security system. ” What kind of hostile US coalition and what power, able to challenge, I am talking about, I think the reader understands: this is Russia and China in the first place. But the same Brzezinski 14 of October 2011 in Normandy at the presentation of the A. de Tocqueville prize said to him: “The current United States and the entire Western world are not at all those that used to be ... The Western world is currently in decline from for lack of volik unity. " Well, about the unity of the wolf as the main cause of decline, the West can be argued, and the loss of the United States and the West is a fait accompli. However, through the mouth of Brzezinski, not only a statement of decline says, but also Western design geopolitics - an updated geopolitical project of the American and European elites, primarily financial ones.
The EU has lost hope that the “soft” America in the person of Barack Obama will give Europe the opportunity to break free from American tutelage and enter independent roles in world politics. Europe, through the EU, tried to play its own party in global processes, up to the creation of European armed forces in return for NATO, but the “riot on the western ship” was decidedly suppressed. How long? The crisis, organized in Europe with the help of American financial and shadow structures, forced Europeans to accept Obama's proposal to merge under the American auspices of the two geopolitical centers, North America and Europe, into the “transatlantic free trade zone”. First of all - to curb the Chinese dynamics of development and economic expansion. The situation in Cyprus with the expropriation of bank deposits seems to be the beginning of the dismantling of the existing banking system with the collapse of the euro, the subsequent abandonment of the US dollar and the introduction of a single Euro-Atlantic currency. What will be a serious blow to the economy of Europe, China, Russia and other countries. Americans will forgive all the debts of the dollar to all its owners.
The funeral of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez highlighted the anti-American course of Latin America and its formation as a world civilization with its own distinctive cultural and civilizational characteristics. But Latin America, in its confrontation with the United States and Finintern, needs geopolitical allies, like the Soviet Union used to be. And again the views of Brazil, Cuba, Venezuela and many other countries of the continent are turned to the East, in the direction of Russia and China.
China no longer has the desire or even the ability to comply with Deng Xiaoping’s call: “to hide our potential” and “wait for an opportunity.” It seems that this "opportunity" has come. This demonstrates the course of the new leadership of the People's Republic of China - “in the coming decade to consolidate in leading world positions in all azimuths, and by 2049 to achieve the status of a global leader of humanity”.
India, which is strengthening its cultural and civilizational matrix, also demonstrates the powerful dynamics of development and the desire to become a global player in world processes. The experience of historical unification within a single state and a common project for the development of more than 400 nations, ethnic groups and ethnic groups, practically all religious movements of the world suggests that India, with favorable circumstances and preserving wisdom in managing processes and people, will make even more powerful progress in development and will become the world leader not only in the innovation economy and technologies, but also in understanding the universe and ethno-social processes, shaping the meaning of being and harmony with the environment Doi. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, India seeks to remain independent of the West and not fall into the shadow of China. She succeeded in this alliance with the USSR. Present-day Russia can not replace the Soviet Union, firstly, and secondly, it does not particularly want to be under the patronage of the West.
The world of Islamic civilization, which the guardian professor Samuel Huntington in 1993 declared the enemy No. 1 of the West in the XXI century, is at the stage of understanding the world situation and the choice of the path of development. The existence of the USSR and the development of the world socialist project gave a serious chance for the development and unification of the countries of the Islamic world. Even the Muslim countries in the Western area felt more confident, because the United States, Britain and France sought to prevent them from lagging behind the Islamic countries of a socialist orientation. With the collapse of the Soviet system, the Islamic world was orphaned, lost its independence and development prospects (I will stress: not of socio-economic well-being, but of all-round development. - L. I.). I remember the 1998 year, the visit of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation to the Syrian Arab Republic. ATS President Hafez Asad spoke to Marshal I. D. Sergeev: “The Islamic world regrets more than others the collapse of the USSR. But the Arabs suffered from this more than other Muslims. And among the Arab countries, the Syrians are most sorry. With the departure of the Soviet Union, Syria was orphaned. ” For all its atheism, socialism, within the meaning of the organization of life, the relationship between people and the priority of community-collectivist values, the prohibition of loan interest, was much more in keeping with the spiritual image and traditions of Islam than liberal-market individualism. But the West is strenuously imposing the liberal model in politics and economics on the world of Islam, destroying traditional foundations and even destroying traditional values along with states and peoples (Iraq, Libya, Syria, etc.). The idea of the outstanding Soviet scientist Academician N. N. Moiseev, expressed as early as 1995, is interesting in this respect: “The rejection of liberalism leads to a lag in the field of industrial production, in the development of new ideas and technologies ... dooms these peoples to the fate of Neanderthals” - and since “No nation will agree with such a finale of its own history ... then it will take up weapon».
Brzezinski in his last statements gives a great geopolitical mystery: the world tends to bipolarity along the West-East axis (its phrase is typical: the power of the East is constantly growing against the background of the decline of the West). Today, China is worried about the United States more than Russia. But most of all, the West (the Anglo-Saxon world and the oligarchs) is worried about the prospect of a rapprochement between Russia and China, Moscow’s turnout from the West to the Eurasian geopolitical direction. Similarly, the Anglo-Saxons in 20 – 30 ‑ hgg. the past two years have been troubling the alliance of the two continental powers, Russia and Germany, which they considered deadly to the countries of the maritime civilization. Then for their "salvation" the Anglo-Saxons and financiers found Hitler. Now the old “Hitlers” are not in fashion: we need tolerant Fuhrers and other more “democratic” methods of conquering the “living” space. But the West is no longer a single entity, they are different civilization entities that are in a state of geopolitical confrontation. And the outwardly visible unity of North America and Europe, their joint operations against countries seeking independence or possessing enormous natural resources not controlled by transnational companies is not the result of the agreement of politicians, diplomats and governments. This is a conspiracy of the largest financial houses in the USA and Europe.
SECURITY IN THE XXI CENTURY
The West is still a prospect for mankind, primarily as a leader in the survival of people and countries, and new profits from their own companies and banks. Receiving which in modern conditions can only be the result of excessive exploitation of the public, the seizure of resource areas, important key objects (canals, straits, isthmuses, etc.), the organization of defaults, crises, wars and other "charms" of modern capitalism. But the owners of capital themselves do not want to fight and cannot — for this, armies, special services, headquarters are needed, and this is a big financial expense, political damage, the damnation of millions. For owners of the world's financial resources, it is easier to buy governments of the world, so that those at their own expense keep NATO armies, organize wars, bury their dead soldiers, keep widows, transfer the resources of their countries to financial oligarchs for promising support in the next elections and so on.
The world situation of the beginning of the twenty-first century basically repeats the situation of the beginning of the last century. 100 years ago, in the battle for world power, they seized: on the one hand, the empire, on the other, global financial (mainly Jewish) capital. On the side of the latter were the states of Great Britain and the USA, plus a revolutionary-liberal movement, financed and promoted by the same financial capital. The empires lost. In the 21st century, we see the same “fighters” for world domination: the Anglo-Saxon elite, the same world financial oligarchs, and the role of revolutionary internationalists is played by modern liberals and Islamic radicals. The object of destruction and destruction are states. The world revolution is replaced by globalization. The functions of the "Third Reich" seem to be imposed on radical Islam. Drang nach Osten reoriented to Drang nah Norden. And Russia is still the main goal of these efforts.
At the global level, there are three geopolitical actors: Western civilization, the transnational community, the totality of Eastern civilizations. Each of them in their own way understands the meaning of goal life, attitude to the environment, to the peoples inhabiting the planet.
The interaction of these three geopolitical centers today largely determines world processes, forming global fields of tension. Such centers are North America, Europe, China. They have potentials that distinguish them as world leaders: independent economic spaces with the number of own consumers of at least 400 million, GDP equal to or approaching 15 – 20 trillion dollars, its own world currency; armed forces capable of acting in any region of the world, in the world ocean, in space; geopolitical ideology and global strategy; own development strategy.
Hence, there are also three differently directed vectors of humanity's movement towards a new world order: unipolar (world is American), mondialist (monopolar under power) and multipolar (peaceful based on world civilizations).
Proponents of a multi-polar world order do not have a clear spiritual and intellectual leader; they have not developed ideological foundations, social theory, priorities of civilizational goals, the doctrine of the preservation of humanity, etc.
Proponents and actors of a unipolar and mondialist world order, unlike “multi-polar”, have their doctrines and strategies, but they are unrealistic and catastrophic, since they are hardly feasible without a big and bloody war of a new type.
Summarizing the above characteristics, we can conclude: humanity lives in a state of uncertainty, fear for their future, general depression and the absence of any security guarantees. The reason for this is the state of permanent war that combines diverse forms of confrontation in all spheres of human activity. At the same time, in the conditions of the constantly expanding spheres of society’s activity, the range of means and methods of struggle for control over them by various forces is expanding, and globalization gives this fight a worldwide spatial character. Today there is not a single calm region on earth.
Space is the main category of geopolitics, and the struggle for control over it (in the most diverse manifestations of the concept of “space”) has been elevated to the rank of the basic law of geopolitical theory.
The technologies of control of geopolitical spaces and their resources are divided into two large groups - panel and point.
The panel group includes the type of geopolitical control that allows absolute domination over most or all of this space. Panel control in the geographical space of the modern world in its literal form is impossible, but geographic space can be absolutely controlled by a superpower through special forms of control of the economic, financial and especially ideological (cultural and civilizational) space. Panel control of a part of the geographical space, that is, of a separate region or, all the more so, of a state, is quite feasible.
Point control of geopolitical spaces is dominance at key points of a given space that determine its quality. In the US national security strategy, which is, in fact, the US geopolitical doctrine, these are considered to be: key areas of the world, strategic communications and global resources.
In geographic space, panel control is carried out in only one way, and this is forceful seizure, or traditional war. But as a result of the dominance of the pan-idea of liberalism and its key concept - the concept of human rights and democracy, the open form of forceful seizure cannot be carried out by a modern superpower without “losing face”. T.N. the fight against international terrorism, unleashed by George W. Bush, led to a decline in America’s authority, and therefore to a loss of confidence in the dollar. B. Obama needed to change the tactics of gaining control over world space. And the Nobel Peace Prize obliged to play the role of a peacemaker. In addition, the number of so-called “threshold states,” that is, states that actually possess nuclear weapons or are on the verge of their creation, has increased exponentially after the destruction of the Soviet Union, which does not allow aggression against these states to begin beyond the real danger of the aggressor receiving unacceptable damage .
Therefore, the West (Western states under the control of the financial oligarchy) has mastered and successfully applies three main ways to solve the problem of spatial control:
- the use of limitrophe states for the implementation of aggression in the interests of the world hegemon, and to a certain extent the interests of the immediate aggressors are realized;
- “humanitarian intervention”, that is, armed aggression under the pretext of protecting human rights or “democratizing” a country: usually carried out in a collective form using allies in the NATO military bloc to “blur the responsibility” of the real initiator of the aggression. In the modern world, it is mainly this form that is used: control of the Balkans by means of “humanitarian intervention” in the former Yugoslavia in 1999; control of the Middle East and its core, Central Asia through aggression against Afghanistan in 2001; control of the Middle East through the war in Iraq in 2003; control of North Africa and Maghreb through the war in Libya in 2011, external armed intervention in Syria, military pressure on Iran;
- implementation of forceful seizure in a specific form of preemptive war using the technology of "color" revolutions.
In the case of the Arab Spring, we see the combined use of all three of these methods of controlling resources and strategically important communications of the geographic space with a predominance of the third.
We will explain the term “pre-emptive war”, having previously stressed that this is a new type of war of the 21st century. Preemptive war differs from preventive, that is, from armed aggression, carried out to eliminate the formed and obvious threat. By itself, the technology of "pre-emptive war" consists of three elements (as in the American edition):
- regimechange - regime change;
- nationbuilding - the construction of the nation;
- remakingthecountry - restoring the country.
But it is written on paper. In fact, and this is confirmed by practice, the tasks solved in the course of this type of war are:
- the overthrow of the national regime;
- bringing a puppet government to power in the country;
- re-identification of the population by distorting history, ideology, replacing national culture with an artificial surrogate, debunking the national tradition, imposing other values, etc.
That is, the task of "reshuffling" the captured country by former citizens, but with a modified or destroyed national identity. As in the new "democratic" Russia. In September, 2002, President George W. Bush stated: “The United States is in a state of war with terrorists everywhere on the globe ... We will destroy terrorist organizations by ... defining and eliminating any threat before it reaches our borders. With all the aspiration of the United States always and everywhere to enlist the support of the international community, if necessary, we will in no way stop to take unilateral decisions and actions in order to exercise our right to self-defense through preemptive action against terrorists to prevent them from freely acting against our fellow citizens and our country. "
In this statement, the American president traced the conclusion that 11 of September 2001 was extremely necessary for the United States to:
- to justify in front of the world community and its own people armed aggression against sovereign states;
- To leave the system of international law, to destroy the structures and norms of international security that took shape in the era of the balance of power;
- declare itself as a global dictator and intimidate states that do not recognize American hegemony.
The US National Security Strategy, adopted by Congress in 2006, reinforced and developed the concept of preemptive warfare, forming, in conjunction with Strategy-2002, the so-called "Bush Doctrine." Preemptive war aims at long-term (ideally - eternal) securing the resources of a particular country or even a specific region as a whole for global corporations and the states of the “golden billion” society, and justifying this type of war is even more cynical than justifying any other type of war. Not a real threat, but only the possibility of forming a threat to certain parameters of the existence and functioning of the western system on its part causes systemic aggression, not limited to the military phase itself, but rebuilding the entire society of the country of the object of aggression, in the aggregate of its economic, political, ideological and cultural-civilizational characteristics . Resistance to the transfer of resources into the hands of another actor, not only real, but also potentially possible, is suppressed forever. The results of the “ordinary” war can be revised and revised over time, but the results of the preemptive war are fixed forever, because after it ends, there is no one to resist, the subject of resistance disappears as such, acquiring a substantially different quality. Preemptive wars are, first of all, the technology of the resource redistribution of the world and are encouraged mainly by global corporations. This technology makes it possible to assign resources for the entire vast regions (Greater Middle East, Asia-Pacific, the Arctic and Antarctic, etc.) to specific factors.
The Arab Spring is an “oil arrow”, flying primarily to China, as well as to India and Japan. For how is it possible to reliably stop or slow down the development of a power that is a potential geopolitical adversary? First of all - to take control of the energy necessary for its development, in this case - the main energy carrier, oil. The path of the “arrow” began in Tunisia (“trial ball,“ warming-up country ”), passed through Egypt (the key country of the Sunni part of the Greater Middle East), Libya (first place in Africa for oil reserves, 3,4% of world reserves), Syria (“ the pro-Iranian country of the Greater Middle East), then flies to Iran (9,9% of world oil), the states of the Transcaucasus (the main target is oil Azerbaijan), Central Asia, Russia (5,6% of world oil reserves, taking into account the explored Arctic deposits - 16%), since it is in these countries that the main reserves of Eurasian oil and - not least - the main transport and energy communications.
Following the logic of the Arab spring, it can be assumed that its geopolitical continuation in the form of “color” revolutions or in other forms is inevitable for Central Asia, Iran, Russia and China.
The search for, research and development in practice of new types of military operations, sometimes not even similar to the wars of past centuries, are conducted quite actively in the United States and in several countries of Europe (Great Britain). The customer and participant of this type of activity is large financial capital.
But the means and methods of traditional and "conventional nuclear" wars are no less actively cultivated. 18 January 2003. US President J. Bush signed a directive on the concept of a fast global strike, the essence of which was to launch a preemptive strike with several thousand high-precision cruise missiles at a country chosen for aggression in order to force it to surrender. Again, this is primarily about Russia and the PRC, which is confirmed by regularly held computer and command-staff exercises. Again, there is a clear focus on decisive military superiority for the sake of global power over the world.
However, the remaining part of the Russian strategic nuclear potential and China’s potential nuclear capabilities are a hindrance on this path, which casts doubt on the American strategy of world domination. In 1999-2000 years. in the United States was actively discussed so-called. "Nuclear review". As a result, experts and politicians came to the conclusion that the strategic US-Russian nuclear parity as a deterrent does not meet the interests of the United States. In addition, the US strategic nuclear forces stimulate Russia and China to maintain (develop) the potential for retaliatory strike. A new nuclear doctrine is being approved, the essence of which is as follows: reducing the role of nuclear weapons in the US military-political strategy, restricting the development of national strategic nuclear forces, launching the Russian-American nuclear arms reduction process (with possible future involvement of China). At the same time, a number of strategic decisions are being taken to ensure the decisive military superiority of the United States. This is, first of all, the buildup of high-tech non-nuclear weapons of the armed struggle, the creation of new types of weapons, the development of a new theory of war and the development of combat tactics. Under the directive on the concept of “Fast Global Strike”, the appropriate command of the BSU is created, the forces and means are allocated, and the development of new, above all high-precision, means of destruction is laid. A number of carriers of nuclear weapons are being withdrawn from the composition of strategic nuclear forces, and they are being reequipped for promising cruise missiles. Thus, four of the most powerful nuclear submarines of the Ohio type were withdrawn from the naval nuclear forces, the 24 intercontinental SLBMs were removed from them, and the Tomahawk modernized cruise missiles were delivered to each of them by 158. The same - with submarines of the class "Virginia". For these purposes, several surface ships are being reequipped and laid - carriers of hundreds of cargo ships each. Today, the US Navy already has more than 4 thousand. high-precision cruise missiles. A new cruise missile with a supersonic flight speed and range over 5 thousand is set for development. kilometers. Today there is no means of protection against such weapons in any country of the world. The essence of the Fast Global Strike concept is the sudden striking of several thousands of cruise missiles at the facilities of the strategic nuclear forces of the enemy, the most important elements of control systems, the economy and infrastructure. After that, an ultimatum about capitulation is presented to the country. If the country - the object of the strike does not capitulate, the strike is repeated. In the case of Russia, in order to neutralize the possibility of a retaliatory strike, the strategic deterrence forces of the United States are deploying a global missile defense system and means of electronic control suppression. The US missile defense system is based on the ground, sea, aviation and space echelons of the system. Missile defense tasks: by means of suppressing control systems, to prevent the launch of surviving missiles, to intercept launched missiles in the accelerating and orbital segments of the trajectory, to destroy the broken warheads by means of ground and ship missile defense. In fact, we are talking about depriving Russia and China of the possibility of a retaliatory strike, and therefore, about eliminating the strategic deterrence factor. In my opinion, the most dangerous for the Russian retaliatory forces are shipborne missile defense systems equipped with modern radars and interceptors of short, medium and long range ballistic missiles. Let me remind you that it was the Standard-3 rocket launched from a ship in 2008 that hit an American satellite at an altitude of 247 km. A European missile defense is only one of the elements of a global missile defense system, as well as an information cover and a trump card in Russian-American relations, which Washington can exchange at any convenient time for more important concessions to Moscow. According to available information, the USA in 2013. will have an 32 missile defense ship, all in American plans for 2021. - 93 such a ship. They are able to reach the most convenient for interception areas, to the main beam of trajectories of Russian missiles. The Pentagon is already working out options for deploying groups of ships with Aidzhis missile defense systems and cruise missiles in the waters of the Baltic, Barents, Okhotsk and Japanese seas. In August, the 2008 The American cruiser Monterey made a call to the Black Sea. aviation groupings. Targets - continuous monitoring of strategic forces and other objects of a potential enemy and, if necessary, suppressing them.
The updated US nuclear doctrine of 2010 makes an adjustment to the role of nuclear weapons. “At present,” the doctrine says, “the United States is not ready to pursue a policy according to which deterring a nuclear strike is the only goal of a nuclear weapon.” That is, we are talking about the US readiness for the preventive use of nuclear weapons. The structure of a fast global strike introduced elements of tactical nuclear weapons; strategic nuclear weapons are being developed that are not subject to the limitations of the START-3 agreement - for example, such as a hypersonic aircraft with a range of more than 4 thousand kilometers launched from submarines and ships. This is apparently caused by the fact that Russia and China, in the development of ground-based nuclear forces, prefer mine-based missile systems. In February, 2012, the deputy head of US strategic command, Greg Weaver, stated that "today it is impossible to replace nuclear weapons with conventional ones, since conventional weapons do not hit a target like nuclear weapons." Therefore, it is possible that Washington will actively develop a nuclear program of a non-strategic nature (sea-based, air-based KR, planning aerial bombs, missile defense facilities), while pushing Moscow to reduce tactical nuclear weapons. What is already read in a number of publications by Russian “liberals-disarmed”, including some generals, who anticipated, as usual, the initiative of B. Obama about the next Russian-American reduction of nuclear (to 1000 warheads) weapons.
Develop the United States and new types of means of global destruction. Thus, in the management of the Pentagon’s advanced weapons, there are two strictly classified departments: “C” (climatic) and “P” (psychological). The first HAARP object in Alaska, eight other similar objects, the meteorological service and several ships from the Navy, where a complex of special equipment was mounted, were subordinated to the first. The “P” department is also equipped with the newest technologies of influence on the masses of the population within the framework of the “pre-emptive war” (construction of a new nation).
Washington paid particular attention to the development of special operations forces.
In the framework of the National Intelligence Council, 16 intelligence agencies operate, which are engaged not only in intelligence, but also in powerful analytics, forecasting and planning for the development of the situation and, of course, carrying out relevant operations. Powerful intelligence services operate in the financial and banking sector. The US Department of State received special functions (foreign affairs agency): coordination of subversive activities, organization of chaos and instability, revolutions and upheavals in the countries designated by the United States, as well as the task of ensuring total control over the domestic and foreign policies of satellite countries and controlled by the ruling elites.
When solving these tasks, the important direction is determined by the establishment of control over the ruling elites of the states. The overthrow of anti-American regimes or regimes seeking to pursue a “fifth column” independent of the United States, bringing the “fifth columns” to power and constant control over them became the core of American foreign policy in 90, the past year. Such a strategy presupposes the destruction of a balance, the establishment of resolving supremacy, and the need for “liberation” from international norms and rules developed by mankind in a bipolar model and, above all, from the fundamental principle of the UN Charter on non-interference in the internal affairs of states. The heavyweight of American foreign policy, G. Kissinger in 1994, speaking of America as an empire, gives the following statement: “Empires do not need to maintain the balance of power. That is how the United States implemented its policies in the Western Hemisphere. ”
He was echoed somewhat later by C. Rice, the future US Secretary of State: "The United States plays a special role in the modern world and should not put itself in dependence on any international conventions and on agreements put forward from the outside."
This approach was formalized in the American doctrine of preventive war, and then in the strategic concepts of NATO. In March 1999, this doctrine became the basis for aggression against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The UN Security Council was ignored, a dangerous breach was made in the international security system. The final collapse of the system came as a result of the operation 11 of September 2001, when the United States unilaterally and even with the support of Russia assumed the right to intervene, including by armed means, in the affairs of any state and control the destinies of all mankind. The principle of the UN Charter (Art. 2, para. 7), prohibiting interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, was simply ignored. There was an invasion of Afghanistan, in 2003, by the NATO coalition, the Iraqi Republic was destroyed, in 2011, the Libyan Jamahiriya. Today is an attack on Syria.
The system of bilateral agreements ensuring a strategic balance is also being destroyed: in 2002, the United States unilaterally withdraw from the 1972 Treaty on the limitation of missile defense systems; on the initiative of the United States, the Treaty between Russia and NATO on the Limitation of Armed Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty) ceases to "work"; already in 90-egg. The American side of the opening to violate the provisions of the Treaty SNV-2, including the concealment of the return potential, hinder the implementation by the Russian inspectors of the control over the reduction of strategic arms. The road to world lawlessness is being laid in full swing.
A new type of war spawned a new type of operation - geopolitical operations. The essence of those is investigated by the first vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Doctor of Military Sciences K.V. Sivkov. Summarize here the results of his research.
A geopolitical operation is a combination of activities carried out within the framework of a single plan and plan, coordinated by goals and objectives, place and time, methods and forms of actions by groups of armed forces and private military corporations; government political and diplomatic structures and non-governmental organizations; financial institutions and economic structures; Media and international organizations; special services and illegal (terrorist) armed groups to achieve important geopolitical goals.
It is difficult to say which element in the structure of a geopolitical operation is decisive, because each of these operations is original. We know the general content of the operation: the overthrow of the current regime of power and bringing into power of the controlled forces. Next comes the launch of the process of denationalization of the country. But the specific content of each operation depends on a variety of conditions, which means that the set of tools and methods of actions are also very diverse. At the same time, military force can not only play a secondary role, but also not be used at all. But the compulsory elements of the operation are: information resource, special services, finance, mercenaries (militants, imitators of the people or political forces), governing state institutions.
At certain stages of a geopolitical operation, the composition of its elements (content) changes and priority is given to certain means and methods of actions:
- military operations of the armed forces and irregular formations;
- operations of special services and structures under their control (of al-Qaeda type);
- financial and economic actions to form the crisis and destabilize the situation in the country;
- information and psychological operations to discredit the regime, demonize its leaders and unwind the opposition;
- special political and diplomatic events;
- activization of activity of non-governmental organizations (under the guidance of special services).
This kind of operations in the United States pay great attention. Institute. A. Einstein (head J. Sharp) to the middle of 90 ‑ hgg. the past century has developed an introduction to the "color" revolutions "From the dictatorship of democracy." In the detailed description of the methods of forming the opposition, it was necessary to overthrow the "dictatorship" and 198 methods of action to loosen the foundations of power, create a situation of uncontrollability and chaos, capture the system of governance of the country, etc. This is so-called. general instructions. But the same instructions and instructions are in the state structures under the appropriate security classification. And they are not only the result of scientific and analytical research, but also a generalization of the experience already gained.
The first geopolitical operations conducted under US administration date back to the times of the Caribbean crisis. Starting with 1985, they acquired a grandiose scope and were associated with the coming to power in the USSR of a weak leader in the person of Gorbachev, who did not understand the deep essence of world processes, who did not know the laws and regularities of geopolitics, who did not master the methods of systems analysis and strategic foresight.
To the number of geopolitical operations (GPO) of the West at that time should include:
- The first Eastern European GPO (1985 – 1990), which led to the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the imbalance of the world socialist system;
- Euro-Asian GPO (1989 – 1991), which led to the collapse of the USSR and the entire World system of socialism;
- the second Eastern European GPO (1992 – 2000) - the establishment of NATO’s control (and the US through NATO) over the Eastern European space;
- Central Asian GPO (1992 - to the present), the purpose of which is to establish control over the post-Soviet republics of the Central Asian region and Afghanistan, but the related tasks have been solved only partially;
- Middle East GPO (2003) - the defeat of Iraq and the mastery of its oil reserves, the destabilization of the region, the military control of the Persian Gulf zone. The goals are mostly achieved;
- The Caspian-Caucasian GPO (1994 – 2001), the goal of which was with the help of Great Britain to weaken Russia's influence in the region, to launch the process of destruction of its statehood, to create conditions for the activities of Western companies in the Caspian oil and gas fields. Tasks are not solved;
- North African (Arab Spring, from 2010, to the present);
- undermine the economic position of China on the African continent, take the oil and gas fields under Anglo-American control, slow down the development of North African countries and the EU. The tasks are not completely solved.
The united Syrian-Iranian operation being conducted by the United States now with the support of the European and Arab allies is the development of the Arab Spring operation. The fall of B. Asad’s regime will lead to the active phase of the operation directly against Iran, where the military force element is likely to come to the fore, not excluding its tactical nuclear option. If the operation against Syria and Iran is successful, the following operations against Russia and China are very likely.
Summing up the interim result, we can state: the weakening of the forces holding back the world oligarchy in its irrepressible desire to possess world power for the sake of siphoning global profits from everything on the planet untied her hands on the use of American and NATO military forces. Here is a summary of a weighty expert, American political analyst T. Friedman: “The world is supported by the presence of American power and the American desire to use this military power against those who threaten the global system of the United States ... The invisible hand of the market would never have worked without a hidden fist. This fist is now visible to all. "
RUSSIA IN THE SYSTEM OF WORLD COORDINATES
New Russia was one of the first victims of the new world order and a new type of global war (pre-emptive). By striving into the “Western civilized community”, Russia changed its own history, its cultural and civilizational essence, geopolitical tradition, and messianic aspiration for the future. Having formed over the centuries as the strategic center of Eurasia, as a distinctive cultural and historical type (according to N. Ya. Danilevsky), which reached the status of world civilization of the first magnitude in the Soviet period, the Russian state has always played the role of an independent subject in international affairs. For centuries, a vast experiment has been carried out on the vast Russian territory to build a just human society of the future. Here is what the eminent British geopolitics and historian A. Toynbee wrote: “Your country consists of so many peoples who speak so many different languages and inherit so different cultures that they are a model of the world as a whole.” By its turn to the West, the Russian Federation interrupted the historical vector of development and slipped to the status of the attendants of other global subjects. Attempts to "ally" with America on an equal footing turned out to be an empty bluff with the loss of national sovereignty. The United States does not intend to share world power, to which they have been striving since 1823's “Monroe Doctrine”. Russia's attempts to find an ally (or reliable partner) in the person of the European Union failed. Europe, in historical retrospect, has never been an ally for Russia. And today it behaves the same way as in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. On the one hand, Europe is putting pressure on Russia so that our country will find and profess European values, rules, not interfere in the affairs of the EU and respect the interests of Europeans. On the other hand, in order for Moscow to abandon its own interests in the Eurasian space, in no case did not restore order in its own house (remember Chechnya or Georgia-2008), did not politicize the export of natural resources, did not deploy it to the East, did not provide incentives for domestic consumption . In terms of security, Europe is absolutely not independent, all issues are solved in Washington.
In the post-Soviet (Eurasian) space, the new Russia did not propose its own geopolitical project, and the Commonwealth countries also rushed to the West in a rush, were included in the projects of other civilizations as not subjects, but objects of re-identification under liberal standards. Today, the Russian Federation is positioning itself in the global space as a raw materials appendage of foreign economies, a huge endangered territory, ethnographic material for more successful competitors. The condition of the Russian population is tragic: we are the leaders in the number of violent deaths (80 thousand per year), the rate of degradation and extinction of residents, the number of street children (about 5 million), the mentally ill (6 million), alcoholics (37 – 42 million). In terms of the quality of human potential, Russia has fallen on the 73 world names.
Russia is experiencing a spiritual, moral, ideological and ideological crisis, which represents a real danger of its existence as a state and civilization.
External threats to the security of Russia are complex in nature, which makes them unpredictable.
In terms of military security, the Russian Federation relies on the nuclear missile potential, which is devalued by moral and physical deterioration, the destruction of the military-industrial complex, and the building up of the US capabilities to neutralize it. In the sphere of modern forces and general-purpose equipment, Russia has stepped far back and does not represent a serious force for its main opponents. The true national elite of modern Russia and V. Putin face the same task as I. Stalin and his team in 20 – 30 ‑ hgg. the past century: at all costs to maintain integrity, sovereignty and independence of the country, to eliminate the 50 – 100 flight of dangerous competitors, run this way for a decade. The basis of the solution to this task was to clean up: industrial modernization, the mobilization of patriotism and the formation of a geopolitical area of support in the global space. I. Stalin managed to feel the huge geopolitical potential of the Eurasian space and organize it. This potential has not yet been lost - according to the results of evaluations of specialists from the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, it significantly exceeds the potentials of the USA, EU, China and other countries of the world.
So, the modern West-centric world order has no historical perspective, it is dangerous for humanity. The contours of the new world are still ambiguous. Human civilization has stalled in its development and does not see the future.
An outline of the geopolitical "Russian dolls" of Russia can be a way out of this situation:
- the revival of the civilization essence of Russia itself on the basis of the rejection of the current pro-Western course and the deep modernization of all aspects of the life of the state and society (Patriarch Kirill: "Any modernization must include a moral dimension. Otherwise, nothing will turn out");
- the accelerated formation of the Eurasian Union, which unites the cultural, civilizational, scientific and technological (innovation), educational, economic and security space of the CIS countries (and, possibly, Mongolia) within a single project;
- Transformation of the SCO into a full-blooded Euro-Asian Union (Union of Continental Civilizations, EAU), which will be based on: The Eurasian Union headed by Russia (Eurasian civilization based on the Orthodox Slavic and Russian-Turkic civilization matrices); China (Confucian-Buddhist civilization); India (Hindu civilization). Iran, Pakistan and, subsequently, Afghanistan (possibly, Syria, Turkey, etc.) will form the basis of the Islamic component of the Union;
- the initiation of the creation of an intercivilizational community in the composition of civilizations and peoples who disagree with the world order of the “golden billion”: EAC, BRICS, ASEAN, African Union, the organization of the Islamic Conference, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean countries.
Figuratively speaking, it is necessary to lay the beginnings of a new world, safe and fair. It seems that the new chairman of the PRC, Comrade Xi Jinping, came to Moscow for precisely this. We quoted the positions of the CIS leaders at the beginning of this material. Therefore, the position of Beijing, and especially the new Chinese leader, is no less important. China's main newspaper, Jenminjibao, in an editorial for 30 in January 2012 (by Tao Xu) states: "China and Russia should create a Euro-Asian alliance ... our countries are pursuing common interests and therefore should jointly restrain US actions."
The statement by Xi Jinping at the session of the NPC that approved the new leadership of the CPC and the PRC was characteristic: “No country should expect that we will bargain with our key interests ... that we will taste the bitter fruits of the infringement of the sovereignty, security and interests of the development of the state” . In the same speech, the new leader of China drew a clear line on the immutability of the socialist choice. And one more small detail: in the decisions of the NPC, defense and security are highlighted as priorities, defense expenditures in the country's budget will grow by more than 10%. That is, Beijing is clearly aware of the existence of security threats emanating from both the United States and the liberal market model of the world as a whole. This conclusion is confirmed by Xi Jinping’s in-depth talk with Russian Defense Minister SK Shoigu and a visit (as the first foreigner) to the Operational Control Center of the Armed Forces of Russia. In this regard, we recall that the first visit of S. K. Shoigu as Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation took place in China. Taking into account the development of military and military-technical cooperation between the two countries, one more conclusion can be made: Russia and China are united in their desire to jointly oppose Western plans to turn Eurasia into their own patrimony, the “prize for a winner in the Cold War.”
Beijing is developing the theme of alliance against the aggressive behavior of the West and the dictatorship of financial gain. The newspaper “Huantsushibao” (15.01.2013), through the mouth of a researcher at the Chinese Institute of Modern International Relations, sets the theme of “new internationalism” as a way of global reorganization of the world. Here are some quotes from this article: “The time has come to rein in the pursuit of profit and level the balance between material and spiritual needs ... The essence of“ new internationalism ”is that China needs to take on greater international responsibility ... to make even more efforts to maintain a stable world law ... strive to direct the development of the international order in a fair and rational direction. "
In this situation, the SCO acts as a prototype of the second pole of the world, the continental union of civilizations and at the same time as the beginning of a new model of the world.
The Declaration on the Establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization proclaims “the construction of a new democratic, just and rational political and economic international order” as the goal of its formation. This is a serious claim for the return of the principle of bipolarity along the East-West axis. Such a world will be not only more equitable, but also safer, since the principle of the balance of aggregate forces, checks and balances is revived.
But the question arises: if the SCO is transformed into a union of civilizations, then for this there must be a foundation in the form of closeness of spiritual value systems and national interests. The well-known Russian Sinologist A. Devyatov states that it is possible to solve the problems of the PRC, Russia and Central Asian countries by “building on the existing SCO base an“ Oath of Union ”of countries and peoples of non-Western civilizations — heirs of the Single State of Genghis Khan ... of the Union, built on the non-material basis of the Great Horde "Five above." Power is above property, service is above possession, the general is above private, justice is above the law, spiritual is above material.
All these "five higher" in varying degrees, are present in the cultural value systems and traditions of "non-Western" civilizations, and above all, in the countries - candidates in the EAU. Strictly speaking, this is their fundamental difference from the values of Western nations. And socialism is not so unacceptable for the overwhelming number of countries in the world: the Chinese specificity of socialism, Bolivarian, Arabic, African, Vietnamese and other socialism acts as a target for the majority of the population of the planet. Socialism requires nature. The most difficult thing is that Russia will have to restructure itself - here socialism as an ideology and practice is rejected and condemned by the official authorities, and they have gotten themselves into wild capitalism. But the thought of one of the members of the “Kremlin team” V. Yakunin, who for several years has been leading the dialogue of civilizations: “The world should start consolidating in a different area than the Western alliance ... China, India, Arabic could begin to model this process as a second parallel pole world, Russia, CIS, Latin America ".
As part of the Eurasian and Eurasian Unions, as the first stage of building an economic and political model, it is possible to form an integrative system combining socialism and state capitalism. But this is a matter of specialists.
Russia can offer the Union joint development and protection of the Arctic shelves and the Northern Sea Route, the development of the regions of Siberia and the Far East.
Thus, laying a new model of the world, a world on a bipolar basis (East - West), makes the world safer, since the force superiority of the West is eliminated and the principle of aggregate balance of forces in world politics is returned. This will bring the international security system back to life and give the UN the function of “the main guardian of the world.” The UN Security Council must be formed on the basis of the representation of world civilizations, excluding the right of "veto". The principle of equality of the UN member states is returning, the principle of non-interference in the affairs of sovereign states develops into “non-interference in the affairs of civilizations and unions”. Key areas of the world, strategic communications and resource areas are no longer under the control of the United States and its allies and become international in character.
At the regional level (the Euro-Asian region), the balance of forces is also being formed, compensating, for example, the Chinese superiority by “mini-unions”: Eurasian, Russian-Indian, Caspian, etc. A system of collective security is being formed with the priority of non-military measures and forces. Military efforts focus on joint neutralization of threats: both to the interests of the Union, and to each of its members. Vital communications (the Strait of Malacca, the South China Sea, the Northern Sea Route, the TAPI pipeline, etc.) are subject to joint protection of the Union; resource areas of the world are protected from aggression and staged revolutions.
Thus, having united the post-Soviet states within the framework of the Eurasian Union, and then practically the whole of Eurasia, the “continental union” will turn into a super-power coalition of world civilizations of a truly planetary scale. It is in such a geopolitical entity (Eurasian Union) that the union of the post-Soviet space will be formed, which can rightly be called a real Eurasian union, fully corresponding to the Eurasian geopolitical concept of the 21st century.
The strength of such a state will consist not so much in military or economic power, as in Eurasian civilization unity.
The West, with the beginning of the formation of the EAU having caught that he is no longer a hegemon and a dictator, will behave more restrained. And then it is possible to involve the USA and Europe in the construction of a new world order - fair and safe. But everything needs a strong political will.