Military Review

On the structural crisis of China: it has two economies - for the poor and for the rich

42
On the structural crisis of China: it has two economies - for the poor and for the richThe problems of individual banks in China, like some other specific problems, have been noticed by many. At the same time, all of them are the result of some basic circumstance - the structural crisis in China. And I wanted to write a few words about this crisis.


Today it is no longer possible to say exactly what plan Mao Zedong had when he launched the “cultural revolution” in 1965. It seems to me that he wanted to repeat Stalin’s plan for the end of 20 – 30 with the construction of a self-sufficient technological zone, and for this he needed to achieve two results: first, get out of the Soviet system of division of labor, and second, find “ primary "source of technology (as is clear, after reaching the first effect, the USSR did not fit as such a source). Since only the USA was an alternative to the USSR, all of China’s activity was concentrated in this direction.

However, the US was silent in 1965 – 1966, when China smashed that part of its elite that was oriented towards the USSR, and in 1968 – 1969, when it switched to direct military provocations on the Soviet border ... US capital, after 15 defaulted on August 1971, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger arrived in Beijing, and in the following year, 1973, US President Richard Nixon arrived. And the agreement was reached. The main one was the opening of American markets for Chinese goods.

However, Mao Zedong was already dying, and his successors, most likely, changed the plan he was preparing for China. It is precisely due to the fact that China received more than he wanted. Mao could only rely on some technologies that would allow him to develop the domestic market, but it turned out that a practically unlimited foreign market was opened for China. And the Chinese leadership decided to use it as a multiplier for internal growth.

The path that the USSR went through for many decades, China has slipped through almost fifteen years. However, he got into a situation that today creates many problems for him. The fact is that the USSR was guided by the domestic market, in which there was a low rate of profit (due to the poverty of the population). And for this reason, Stalin pulled the entire population of the USSR towards a higher standard of living - because it helped expand the base of the reproductive contour of the economy. Yes, the gaps between town and country, between some regions remained, but nevertheless the surplus product was distributed, in general, equally - because this, as written in all textbooks, provides the maximum increase in private demand.

In China, there was no such problem — at first, the foreign market was limitless. And it was necessary to maximize the range and quality of goods in order to get more and more profit from this foreign market. At the same time, it was more profitable not to invest millions and then billions of dollars in the development of a poor village at first, but to expand the scale and quality of export production, since in the next step the export of more complex products brought much more profit.

As a result, China has developed two sectors of the economy. One is focused on external demand, in which a rather high rate of profit (of course, it drops over time, since foreign markets are close to saturation), the second is focused on domestic demand. In it, the rate of profit is extremely low, most likely, even really negative (consumers are subsidized from the budget). At the same time, wages in the domestic sector are low (since it works on itself), and in the export sector - quite high. This is connected with the desire to stimulate the quality and scale of production, and with the fact that a high level of division of labor has developed for high-tech industries, which inevitably raises salaries. And the money with which the authorities subsidize the “internal” sector of the economy will inevitably fall into the export sector - because it has a higher profit rate.

To understand the difference of these sectors, you can bring the level of income. In Beijing and Shanghai, the normal salary is 1000 dollars per month, while the level of poverty in China since the beginning of 2012 is the income of 1,5 dollars per day, and more than 100 million people live below this level of income. It is clear that people with such incomes cannot buy products manufactured by the export sector - and even loans do not help here, since there is no income for their return. But representatives of the export sector do not want to buy products manufactured by the “domestic” sector, because it is of poor quality (too cheap). Of course, this barrier is not absolute, but it is quite serious and, most importantly, is growing all the time.

In recent years, China has been solving an important problem — deepening the division of labor requires a new, quality labor force, that is, new sales markets and higher wages. But foreign markets are shrinking (there has been a crisis, and the US is directly opposing the growing activity of China), and the domestic market cannot support the deepening division of labor in China - the export sector is too far away from the domestic one. And what to do in this situation?

Theoretically, there are two options. The first is to lower the export sector of the economy to such a level that its products can easily buy domestic. But this means dramatically reducing salaries at least 5 – 6 times, which would make it impossible for most of the workers in this sector to live in big cities. In general, it is almost impossible for social and logistic reasons - the production structure will be disrupted.

The second is to sharply raise the level of demand of a part of the population in the “domestic” sector of the economy so that it can buy products that are previously exported. It is clear that everyone does not need to give money, but a significant part needs to greatly increase state subsidies. Which for the reasons already described fall into the financial sector and begin to create problems there, since the main assets underlying these flows, credit obligations simply cannot be fulfilled under normal conditions.

Of course, all this is not a secret for the Chinese authorities. They are trying to solve the problem, for example, relocating the poor population to the cities in order to lower salaries in the export sector, which will allow reducing costs and profit margins - at least when selling products from the export sector to the domestic one. I note here one important circumstance: we are talking about “intersectoral” trade, that is, the purchase by people who receive income from the sale of their labor in the domestic market, goods created in the export sector. Services and goods sold within the export sector pose no problems.

However, the gap is too large - the incomes of the two sectors of the economy differ not by tens of percent, but by several times. Accordingly, the interaction of the sectors begins to create serious problems in them: the domestic sector cannot afford to buy modern goods, and the export sector - to reduce revenues and profit rates in order to sell these goods. In other words, China’s colossal population has ceased to be its main economic trump card: the poor population serving each other can no longer support the intensive (that is, with the deepening division of labor) export sector. It seems to me that this situation cannot do without a serious “explosion”, but this is not even the case, but the fact that it is not very clear how China will save its modern economy - there will simply be no markets for it. Note that in this sense he has practically the same problems as the United States, only in a slightly different form.
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  1. Joker
    Joker 26 June 2013 15: 44 New
    20
    The fact is that the USSR was oriented toward the domestic market, in which there was a low rate of profit (due to the poverty of the population). And for this reason, Stalin pulled the entire population of the USSR towards a higher standard of living - because it helped expand the base of the reproductive contour of the economy. Yes, the gaps between town and country, between some regions remained, but nevertheless the surplus product was distributed, in general, equally - because this, as written in all textbooks, provides the maximum increase in private demand.

    Read and shed tears sadTraded all the Chinese consumer goods.
    1. Vadivak
      Vadivak 26 June 2013 16: 18 New
      10
      Quote: Author Mikhail Khazin
      Today it’s already impossible to say exactly what plan Mao Zedong had,


      The best plan is growing around the State Duma (judging by the laws), so Mao had some grass of his own, how many sparrows they beat, they bastards the enemies of communism ate the grain of grain, they killed 2 billion of them, and then the locusts gobbled up the crop and about 10 million Chinese died, Mao had such a plan
      1. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt 26 June 2013 16: 32 New
        +7
        Quote: Vadivak
        they killed 2 billion, and then the locust gobbled up the crop
        Yeah, you won’t be full of sparrows and you don’t have anything to cook with porridge .. All along Confucius, we disturbed the balance and suffered. The Great Helmsman was mistaken.
      2. Manager
        Manager 26 June 2013 16: 55 New
        +7
        Quote: Vadivak
        The best plan is growing around the State Duma (judging by the laws), so Mao had some grass of his own, how many sparrows they beat, they bastards the enemies of communism ate the grain of grain, they killed 2 billion of them, and then the locusts gobbled up the crop and about 10 million Chinese died, Mao had such a plan


        So when they switched to fried grasshoppers and locusts! Now everything fell into place!
      3. Strezhevchanin
        Strezhevchanin 27 June 2013 09: 32 New
        0
        Quote: Vadivak
        about 10 million Chinese were killed, this is Mao’s plan

        Mathematics in the hands of a politician worse than a nuclear bomb hi
    2. Mikhail3
      Mikhail3 26 June 2013 17: 06 New
      0
      No, everything happened much earlier. Changed to European consumer goods. The scheme is the same that China will get along with now. We will buy consumer goods in Europe, and for its purchase we will distribute money to people. Only China has "Europe" in China itself. But in the same way, China does not need Chinese enterprises. They release something that the Chinese are not worth for. And for the purchase of this rubbish, the Chinese will be given money ... The USSR did not survive such a number. Let's look at China ...
      1. fzr1000
        fzr1000 26 June 2013 17: 09 New
        +3
        Handing out money to the Chinese only temporarily put off the problem. It was a roast haze ...
    3. krasin
      krasin 26 June 2013 17: 39 New
      +5
      how China preserves its modern economy - there simply will be no markets for it.

      Sheathed the floor of the world, fed - and still need markets. Well done!
      Cheap ones sell low-quality here. our businessmen are grabbing the cheap stuff, they want to quickly and without much cost to make money.
      1. old man54
        old man54 26 June 2013 22: 45 New
        0
        Quote: krasin
        Sheathed the floor of the world, fed - and still need markets. Well done!
        Cheap ones sell low-quality here. our businessmen are grabbing the cheap stuff, they want to quickly and without much cost to make money.

        Sorry, but look only today, not even tomorrow! Read, see more analyzes of Khazin, Delyagin, Kobyakov and other non-Kremlin and liberal economists. Much will become clear to you, perhaps!
    4. sergaivenski
      sergaivenski 26 June 2013 19: 27 New
      +4
      Yes !!! They drove their producer into a corner !!!
    5. Airman
      Airman 26 June 2013 21: 51 New
      +1
      Quote: Joker
      The fact is that the USSR was oriented toward the domestic market, in which there was a low rate of profit (due to the poverty of the population). And for this reason, Stalin pulled the entire population of the USSR towards a higher standard of living - because it helped expand the base of the reproductive contour of the economy. Yes, the gaps between town and country, between some regions remained, but nevertheless the surplus product was distributed, in general, equally - because this, as written in all textbooks, provides the maximum increase in private demand.

      Read and shed tears sadTraded all the Chinese consumer goods.


      Which is supplied to Russia by our "businessmen" from the domestic market of China, which I have not bought for a long time because of its very low quality.
      1. S_mirnov
        S_mirnov 26 June 2013 23: 07 New
        +1
        And again, we all observe how journalists of a purely gussian appearance are telling you and me what a weak and unstable economy is in China, not like our stable GDP. The Chinese economy is about to overheat and BAMS! VAZs, Muscovites, ZILs and Kamazs will roll along the roads of boundless Russia.
        All these are pink dreams, inspired by the pro-Israeli media of the Russian Federation !!!
        And in fact:
        http://3mv.ru/publ/vojna_kitaj_vs_rossija_kto_pobedit_video/3-1-0-12172

        "
        Obviously, without fixing on these resource territories of Russia, China will not be able to carry out its expansion into the rest of the world. Therefore, we believe that relations between Russia and China will irreversibly deteriorate and in ten years may become intolerable. In 10-15 years, the military power of China will be comparable with the power of the United States and will be ten times greater than the capabilities of the Russian armed forces.
        "- this is for those who think, for those who are most important to make noise about stability it is better not to read. Seriously, do not spoil your acid-base balance!
        1. djon77
          djon77 27 June 2013 08: 08 New
          0
          oh well everything is so gloomy to paint. the majority of the inhabitants of this forum are only answering. They will shovel off)))))))))))))))
  2. yanus
    yanus 26 June 2013 15: 46 New
    +8
    Extremely successful, albeit simplistically painted.
    Here I would also like to describe the efficiency of "burying" super profits and "planned" economic growth.
    They are usually buried in infstructural projects, such as auto-rail lines. On the one hand, the chorie of the road is wonderful. On the other hand, all the demanded directions have already been built long ago, so there are six-lane autobahns between the two villages.
    The "planned" growth of indicators among officials is obtained in the best Soviet traditions. And as you wanted, they can shoot there. It is impossible to make an inscription, they are watching. Therefore, they diligently engage in nonsense for state money, but the indicators are growing. The most striking example is ghost towns, which are inhabited by 5-10 %%. And they are still building there, new quarters in which there is no one to settle, but the construction sector of the economy is "growing".
  3. Nevsky
    Nevsky 26 June 2013 15: 48 New
    +3
    China has trapped itself, it is a fact! bully
    1. Joker
      Joker 26 June 2013 15: 55 New
      +1
      The problem of China is a large number of people, if it would be like ours, then they would gambling there in full.
      1. Vladimirets
        Vladimirets 26 June 2013 16: 01 New
        +5
        Quote: Joker
        The problem of China is a large number of people, if it would be like ours, then they would gambling there in full.

        If it were like ours, then no one would work for a penny and there would not be such a volume of consumer goods. The mass of people trying to break up or just survive is China’s happiness and misfortune.
      2. Nevsky
        Nevsky 26 June 2013 16: 06 New
        0
        Quote: Joker
        The problem of China is a large number of people, if it would be like ours, then they would gambling there in full.


        Is not a fact. Could not organize such production facilities for the whole world. Everything is proportional to the world of a colleague hi However Vladimirets answered clearly and very clearly.
        1. old man54
          old man54 26 June 2013 22: 49 New
          0
          Quote: Nevsky
          Could not organize such production facilities for the whole world.

          and China itself did not build these capacities, only partially, at the very beginning. Up to 80% of the export factories were built by the fiery manufacturers themselves, world-class or so. On their money (investment)
      3. Avenger711
        Avenger711 26 June 2013 20: 28 New
        0
        Under Stalin, 70-80% of the population lived in the less developed European part and all kinds of Tajiks could be neglected, and in China half of the population, it seems, was cut off from the export feeder.
    2. mosgeo1
      mosgeo1 26 June 2013 23: 26 New
      0
      China has driven its wisdom into a dead end at the moment, almost everyone. Blue and other Western democracies are rotten in idleness, their elbows are already biting, but not enough! Hard workers The Chinese are working. Not enough natural resources? They'll get enough fools in this world, who sell them hard! But by the way, it’s possible where it lies badly and grab for free. The island between China and Japan is an example! And this is just the beginning!
  4. pa_nik
    pa_nik 26 June 2013 15: 50 New
    +8
    Quote: yanus
    motorways


    I could not resist. I quote. Masterpiece laughing

    Quote: yanus
    You can’t do the postscripts, they’re watching.


    This is not true. One of the current problems is determining the growth rate of the Chinese economy. In the provinces - they attribute the indicators to the transfer to the center. Those publish the 2nd time corrected information. And the rest of the world is steaming, what really happens there? All this is connected with the large debts of the provinces to the banks. More than 30 of them are practically bankrupt. If China smiles, it is not known what will happen .. Perhaps it’s worse than during the Amer’s collapse. hi
    1. Nevsky
      Nevsky 26 June 2013 16: 10 New
      0
      Quote: yanus
      motorways


      Tin. Admins also persecute me for errors when writing publications, now I understand why they are so tough on their spelling))) The author’s oversight is concrete! wassat
    2. Vladimirets
      Vladimirets 26 June 2013 16: 23 New
      +8
      Quote: pa_nik
      Quote: yanus
      motorways

      This type of overpasses is most characteristic of our country. smile
      1. Vadivak
        Vadivak 26 June 2013 16: 41 New
        +8
        Quote: Vladimirets
        This type of overpasses is most characteristic of our country.

        Together with fools, a terrible force
        1. Malleus
          Malleus 26 June 2013 18: 26 New
          +3
          About the photo: did Khrushchev's dream come true and at the same time the problem of traffic jams was finally solved? I understand correctly - this is the civilian version of the "Battle Mole"?
    3. old man54
      old man54 26 June 2013 22: 54 New
      0
      If China snucks, it’s not known what will happen .. Perhaps - worse than during the Amer’s collapse

      and he, China, will surely "hoot", tk. its export part of the economy is tied to Western markets (USA, Geyropa), but the world crisis, a decline in consumption, oversaturation of markets in rich countries, etc. are aggravating. Soon they will spit on the WTO and begin to "close" their markets from exports, which, in general, is already happening! China's economy will begin to crumble. In addition, there has already been an outflow of production of world brands-manufacturers from the Middle Kingdom to South America. Against this background, the likely military conflict between China and the United States is becoming increasingly apparent!
      hi
  5. darksoul
    darksoul 26 June 2013 16: 29 New
    +1
    Chinese wealth is the people ... more precisely, its quantity ..... our wealth is untold natural wealth, the people of a vast soul and officials de..bills of the latter, of course, refer to wealth in quotation marks
    1. djon77
      djon77 27 June 2013 08: 14 New
      -1
      as there is in the song. we all came from the people. children of the working-class family. I’m talking about officials, including. You don’t have to contradict yourself in one sentence. Each people has rot, and there are sensible people. And the percentage of rot among officials directly proportional to the percentage of rot in the population
  6. fzr1000
    fzr1000 26 June 2013 16: 40 New
    +8
    In China, ass starts. I wrote about this here earlier, although most members of the forum believe that China is very strong. Strong, but not very strong. Roughly everything is the same as in the States, but, as it were, on the contrary: there is no external public debt, but the internal debt in 2003 was $ 27 billion, and today it is "out of control" (this is a quote) and the Chinese currency, alas, is not is the world's means of payment. The States are in no hurry to repay debts to China either, and the return of these debts must be done carefully, otherwise the yuan can be devalued. So we'll take a look.
    1. Very old
      Very old 26 June 2013 22: 03 New
      +1
      And with this booty, he sat down on two chairs: one “cap” chair, the other “social”, as a result the chair turned out to be liquid. Actually, the world has never had an economy without a swing, up and down
  7. Alexander 1958
    Alexander 1958 26 June 2013 16: 56 New
    +1
    For Nevsky
    Your phrase ... China has driven itself into a trap, this is a fact! ... I would add that they helped him a lot in this, or, more precisely, it was originally put into the growth scheme. China was cultivated purposefully as a counterbalance to the USSR, when the USSR was dumped and without it they found a different role as a "consumer goods workshop" and in this capacity they will keep it as long as necessary, and when it ceases to be needed it will be thrown away as a used product
  8. sashka
    sashka 26 June 2013 17: 17 New
    +4
    Stupidity, by definition .. There are interests. You can’t deviate from them, it’s just a zone of vital interests. Everything else is nonsense .. Name the State Policy in Russia.
    She's just not there. We do not know where we are going and why. Where is the point when it will be necessary to begin to rejoice?
  9. knn54
    knn54 26 June 2013 17: 32 New
    +1
    The potential difference is related to tension. The law of electrical engineering, mechanics is applicable in society.
    And in the country there are two China. They have different origins and functions. The PRC leadership understands this problem and is trying to solve it - quickly and efficiently reorient to the domestic market, but without serious shocks it will not work. Too much difference between city and village, and between regions. According to Chinese data, the wealthiest 20% of the country's population receive 50% of all income, while the poorest 20% are satisfied with 5%. Health and education remain an inaccessible dream for many.
    And only the socialist economy can eliminate the contradictions, but not the capitalist one.
  10. sashka
    sashka 26 June 2013 17: 43 New
    -3
    Ji point by definition .. It's not funny .. State. Policy WHERE?
  11. Nayhas
    Nayhas 26 June 2013 18: 11 New
    -1
    However, the cunning author, thought something up, lied something ... The following phrase was especially striking: "Secretary of State Henry Kissinger arrived in Beijing, and the next year, 1973, and US President Richard Nixon. And the agreements were reached. The main one was became the opening of American markets for Chinese goods."Oh how! Who is able to list the range of Chinese goods that were supposed to be supplied to the United States in 1973? The rubber slippers in which the PLA wore? Quotes from Mao and paramilitary jackets? And what are our nomenclature patriots so worried about the Chinese economy?" How can China preserve its modern economy - there will simply be no markets for it. "- Comrade Khazin, if you are not aware, China has a huge sales market in front of it, the African continent, whose population is growing rapidly. A striking example of Nigeria, where the population is 96 million people in 1990 grew to 170 million in 2013 and continues to grow steadily.And China is very eagerly climbing into Africa.In addition, sales markets such as Russia, the countries of Central Asia are stable for China, so China has no problems with the sales market ...
    1. fzr1000
      fzr1000 26 June 2013 19: 06 New
      +3
      You would have reduced your courage. Comrade Khazin is aware of more of yours. You might think that Africa has provided itself all this time, and here China has drawn on you. China in Africa is already 10 years old if not more. The purchasing power of an African does not grow in proportion to population growth. In the meantime, the main markets for China are the United States and Europe because one American spends as much as 1000 blacks.
      1. Nayhas
        Nayhas 26 June 2013 22: 08 New
        +2
        The market in the USA and Europe has a tendency to decrease, but it will not completely disappear, an improvement in the situation will lead to another increase in sales, as Europe and the USA simply do not have other options like China. This comrade Khazin cannot but know, and since he says frank nonsense, it means for some reason. Africa you undeservedly underestimated, it is a promising market and it is almost in the hands of China, Africa is rich in mineral resources and there is a great demand for these mineral resources.
        PS: I ask all the same to list what goods allegedly China in 1973. could attract the US market, or admit that Khazin dunce is illiterate ...
        1. fzr1000
          fzr1000 26 June 2013 22: 22 New
          +1
          I honestly do not know about the USA and China in 1973, I probably should have lived there. But it was possible to conclude an agreement in 1973, and then time must pass — to convince American companies to do this, open production, train personnel, establish logistics ....
          The African market is not going to underestimate anyone, but it cannot yet replace the United States, and it is still not clear when it can.
          And most importantly, why is there going to be an improvement in the US and Europe? Long term?
          1. Egen
            Egen 27 June 2013 06: 58 New
            0
            Quote: fzr1000
            African market no one is going to underestimate, but so far it can not replace the United States

            Guys, let me get in hi
            Sergey, this is all true, but Eugene is in many respects right, and the author, correctly stating the facts, nevertheless does not draw any conclusions / suggestions, and says the facts - not all.
            Firstly, in 1, China, of course, could not supply anything sensible to the United States, since then the export of capital to China (and Mexico) has just begun, moreover, at that time it was still insignificant, amers began to build factories, to produce them exactly " export "products and all of them 73% export to the United States. It was only later that the same factories diversified both in products and in markets. Where does the info come from - I was taught all this in their simple magistracy at the rate of m / nar business 100 years ago - incl. and as a case study, but for their own people it probably didn't make sense to lie to them :)
            Secondly, as far as I am in the subject, the Chinese government has long understood the threat of shrinking export markets, and has long been trying to take measures to stimulate domestic demand - i.e. just to reduce the gap between the "economies".
            In addition, the "domestic" economy is actually not so domestic - most of its products, the same bicycles / mopeds / consumer goods / construction, go with their hands to Asian countries - Indonesia, India, Southeast Asia, etc. , and it turns out to be such a large sales market! Of course, not in terms of money, but in terms of quantity, but still. I have not yet visited such enterprises of the "domestic" economy in China, I have not even thought about it. Of course, China is still far from Africa :)
            But it’s exactly what is good for developed countries in terms of quality and advanced technologies of goods that are already yesterday, for such countries. So from the point of view of global marketing, the article can still be earned by the author ... Although, I agree, Khazin is well done, he always looks almost at the root :), I always read with interest.
          2. Nayhas
            Nayhas 27 June 2013 08: 04 New
            0
            in 1973 The USA is the country with the strongest economy at that time, China is the country of the poor. In order for China to rise, the will of man was needed, it became Deng Xiaoping, but he began his transformations only in the 80s. The visit of the US president to China, of course, became a landmark, but US presidents were in the USSR in 1972. Nixon, in 1974 Ford All these visits were both political and economic in nature, namely the search for the same notorious sales markets, and not vice versa ...
        2. djon77
          djon77 27 June 2013 08: 19 New
          -1
          I add that with the help of China, it does not sound surprising, but the Americans have increased the volume of their economy.
          1. fzr1000
            fzr1000 27 June 2013 09: 09 New
            0
            This is not at all surprising, because the United States had planned so.
    2. datur
      datur 26 June 2013 21: 54 New
      +1
      there simply will be no markets for it. "- Comrade Khazin, if you are not aware, China has a huge sales market, the African continent, - well, a good sales market belay yes there are the poorest Chinese with their 1,5 dolts per day - it's just rich !!! wassat laughing
  12. _KM_
    _KM_ 26 June 2013 18: 18 New
    0
    Those. states and China related antipodes? Stoke each other. More precisely contribute to deepening the crisis?
  13. Smersh
    Smersh 26 June 2013 18: 53 New
    +3
    Something tells me that China will collapse soon
  14. dark_65
    dark_65 26 June 2013 19: 19 New
    +5
    In China, the contradictions will rush in the next 5-7 years:
    Stratification of the population is steeper than ours and India.
    The technologies are raw at all, and if we turn half-turn, then there will be no inflow at all for copying.
    The land-food problem is the ratio of suitable land to one and a half billion empty mouths.
    The gold reserve is a reserve, but amers' pieces of paper can also nullify.
    And let's estimate .. there is everything (factories, factories, almost an intellectual worker "relatively").
    and there’s no grubbing, no marketing of products ...
    What next? only a forceful decision, inside or outside.
  15. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 26 June 2013 19: 21 New
    +1
    Most of China live in poverty yet .. And the economy is growing at the expense of cheap labor ... The country is pretty closed .. They all copy not bad .. and in large numbers but you know the quality ..
  16. uzer 13
    uzer 13 26 June 2013 19: 59 New
    +2
    The distortion in the Chinese economy is a completely expected phenomenon, which is a consequence of the economic miracle that happened there. You can only sympathize with the Chinese poor who have remained in the margins of technological progress. They are only to blame for not being in the right place at the right time, because everyone will get rich right away impossible. Only in Russia the situation is not much better. Social inequality has reached a critical level, which does not exclude the possibility of domestic disasters. The poor are full of their own, and no one deals with their problems at all. All that remains is to deprive them of the last thing they have, etc. e. their homes through housing and communal services reform and they will turn into homeless people.
  17. yzer531
    yzer531 26 June 2013 21: 53 New
    +4
    The global crisis will certainly fulfill itself in the global war.
    Such a war is beneficial to all "powers" and the "world government" in particular.
    China is no exception here: - the entire so-called "lower part" of the economy (about 400 million people) - will be drawn into a global conflict - "pointing the finger" at the availability of Siberia.
    For Russian oligarchs and "rulers" of all stripes, the war is even more profitable, since it is it that allows you to instantly hide all financial and other crimes, and at the same time to get rich.
    Europe is forced to switch the discontent of its peoples from internal problems to external ones.
    The United States (however, as always) - to the last will "knock everyone's heads together" and thereby try to strengthen its depressing position "in terms of debts of all kinds."
    And the world government - it is necessary to quickly finally consolidate its power (at the same time getting rid of 3-4 billion of unnecessary mouths on the planet.
    What government do not take-all the Third World ... on hand ...
    So, make your own conclusions.
    We are on the verge of global change (whether this is wanted or not ...)!
    1. uzer 13
      uzer 13 27 June 2013 00: 34 New
      +1
      It just happened during the Chechen war, shyly called a peacekeeping operation, the banal laundering of stolen money. Even the military were framed, leaving them without legal support, remember Budanov. If you still recall the treachery of the General Staff, the picture is completely depressing.
  18. mosgeo1
    mosgeo1 26 June 2013 22: 15 New
    0
    A Chinese Miracle? very funny! This miracle was started by the Germans, wanting to receive free labor from underdeveloped China by building high-tech enterprises in this country. The Chinese leadership, having duly appreciated the zeal of the "West", invited others, including the USSR, to develop their economy on a communist scale, while absorbing the information received with enviable persistence and gradually introducing all the advanced developments into its own production. At the moment, it is a self-sufficient state by moderate standards, which can, without any restructuring, survive any world cataclysms!
    1. old man54
      old man54 26 June 2013 23: 10 New
      +2
      Quote: mosgeo1
      At the moment, this is a self-sufficient, by moderate standards, state that can survive any global cataclysms without any restructuring!

      where will he take raw materials, if in cho? :) If not Ormunzky, then the Amer will block the Malak Strait to them, if desired, eh? China is an ear of clay feet, many times more than the USSR, and exorbitant pride, for which it will soon be punished! And not least for the farthestness and extreme ingratitude to the big northern brother, whom he owes to the birth of his state in 1945, and his survival in 1950 / 60, and the development of basic industries and gifts in the form of modern technologies and design decisions, in the military industry, by the way, by the way!
      1. uzer 13
        uzer 13 27 June 2013 00: 52 New
        0
        You are right, if the Soviet army had not knocked out the Japanese from China (and not Mao Tse Dong, as they think), then such a state would not exist at all now.
    2. uzer 13
      uzer 13 27 June 2013 01: 10 New
      +1
      Not so long ago, in China, a man who had a watch, a radio and a bicycle was considered a very prosperous subject, and there was nothing to eat at all. The locomotives that were given to them as scrap metal were repaired and put into operation. And now they live no worse than us. Right economic politics, combined with the centralization of power, is the reason for success. So a miracle happened there. But in the neighboring state, there were villains and thieves in power (moreover, they are also communists), so instead of a miracle, an economic drama happened in it.
  19. sergey261180
    sergey261180 26 June 2013 22: 25 New
    +5
    On the structural crisis of China: it has two economies - for the poor and for the rich
    Well yes. They have two economies there. And we have? And we have one pipe and those who stick to it. Someone sucks more, someone less. Here is such an economy. sad
    1. Very old
      Very old 27 June 2013 08: 51 New
      +1
      Someone really sucks the devil knows that
  20. My doctor
    My doctor 26 June 2013 22: 59 New
    -1
    My comment is under the article, About nothing.


    Hee hee I like this article like everyone else here. only here I understand in which ass of Geyropa where stupid mattresses are heading and here the narrow-eyed intellectual pirates soon ... well, in general to them too ... and the Jews are Psheks and other evil verges bordering the Great Power bend in their own bowel movements.
    I understand that Russia has two allies, the army and the navy, well, why make everyone around with enemies. I understand that there are symptoms of paranoia, then you need to do how the whole Western world does or how patients do in all the jokes about the psychiatric hospital. Pretense or
  21. old man54
    old man54 26 June 2013 23: 28 New
    +1
    The article is definitely "+"! Thanks! Khazin is great, I always read his articles and analysis with genuine pleasure. One of his books "The Decline of the Dollar Empire and the End of Pax America" ​​is worth it !! Not so long ago I watched his performance at the State Institute of International Relations, where he explained the main reasons for the current global financial crisis so lucidly, understandably and "on the fingers" that I gasped. Having 2 higher educations, one in economics, it is still so easy and intelligible for me to understand political economy and much more from the history of the development of economic relations in the world in 2 hours, no one explained. And this, excuse me, is a sign of genius, it is easy and simple to talk about complicated things!

    For those who are still shouting about the eternity of global sales markets for Chinese products, post below :)
    From practical life, not from theory. the story of this spring, late. I know from specific people who is tied up in this topic, that China independently organized new production of solar panels, high-tech ones (most likely it was stolen as usual), with a good level of quality. Geyrops entered the markets at prices below the cost price of analogues produced in the EU, most likely at about the level of their cost of production. European pro-va got a stake.! Then France, where similar islands are very developed, closed its market for batteries from the Middle Kingdom (raised heavily customs duties). China, in response, banned the roofing felts, raised the roofing felts duties on imported wine products. And his 80% is France. and for France, wine export is a very large% of agricultural products, which hits it hard! Like this.:)
    And here some write ...
  22. individual
    individual 26 June 2013 23: 40 New
    0
    The world economy has not yet decided on the choice of development.
    It turns out at first growth in any form of ownership, and then overproduction or stagnation and stagnation.
  23. fenix57
    fenix57 26 June 2013 23: 47 New
    0
    "... the poor, serving each other, can no longer support an intensive (that is, with a deepening division of labor) export sector."-and the Chinese are starting from the domestic sector to crawl north to Russia ... hi
  24. mosgeo1
    mosgeo1 27 June 2013 00: 42 New
    0
    just from Yandex: - Sorry, sir, but I can’t let you into the casino! You are without a tie!
    - So what?! But this gentleman is generally naked!
    - Yes, sir! But he - comes out ..., it will be the same with all eager freebies from China, their production and normal people are ruined, they sell freebies!
  25. svskor80
    svskor80 27 June 2013 04: 45 New
    +2
    It is striking that for about 15 years they have been talking about China in admirable colors, what industry, what economy. But you just have to dig and you understand that this is really just a workshop for assembling anything that was invented by no means in China. There are already a lot of engineers there, but they can’t come up with something innovative in any field. No aircraft engines, no aircraft carriers, no tanks .... All copies. The USSR, too, started with the British jet engines, but almost immediately gained experience they began to make their own unique ones, and the Chinese have had our aircraft for many years, I think they are American and can’t put anything of their own on a 5th generation plane. In general, I think in China, really, not everything is as good as it might seem at first glance.
    1. Egen
      Egen 27 June 2013 06: 32 New
      +1
      Quote: svskor80
      just a workshop for assembling anything that was invented by no means in China

      by and large yes, so what? The Chinese, for this reason, do not worry :) And they came up with the most important technology - how to reduce costs :) For example, they have people eating doshirak in the shop - you don’t need a dining room, no water for washing, no lunch time - what time saving! :))
    2. Dimy4
      Dimy4 27 June 2013 07: 59 New
      0
      These guys are sending their young people to study engineering specialties. And as they say the road will be mastered by the going.