Military Review

Centered America

33
History around Syria demonstrates one thing: any, even the most erroneous, strategy is better than its absence. So spoke my American friend, in the recent past, a high-ranking diplomat, with whom we recently discussed the actions of the leading powers in connection with this conflict. By “most erroneous,” the interlocutor, it is true, had in mind precisely Russian politics, but he was outraged by much more US behavior.


They say that Moscow adheres to an outrageous line, supporting a disgusting tyrant, but does it skillfully, consistently, understanding what it wants. Washington has neither the first, nor the second, nor the third.

One can argue about Russian goal-setting, but the steps of the other powers involved really make a strange impression. Syria’s discussion at the G-8 showed that no one is willing and willing to interfere, but in order to somehow disguise this fact, threatening statements are made to both Damascus and those who are behind it (read Russia). Since statements are not accompanied by meaningful actions, the effect ultimately turns out to be the opposite. Those who call for immediate action are even more outraged, those who, in theory, should be frightened and calm down, begin to behave more confidently.

The defining position is that of Washington, which by hook or by crook is trying to evade making decisions. Barack Obama's announcement a few days ago of intent to deliver weapon The rebels had already been proclaimed a turning point in the war, but in reality it was slurred. Numerous reservations (certain types of weapons, only to moderate opposition members, if political and diplomatic measures do not work ...) blur the effect. Moreover, the blow was incomparably weaker than the swing. A couple of months ago, Obama said that the use of chemical weapons by Damascus would become a “red line”, followed by retribution. And everyone understood it as interference. Now it turned out that retribution for the use (which allegedly took place) is not an intervention, and this is the most half-supply of weapons ...

The main thing is that, despite the large-scale anti-Assad propaganda in the West, there are no serious political steps that could inflate the atmosphere around Bashar al-Assad and his regime and make him feel full-scale pressure. How this is done is well known, it suffices to recall the mental attacks on the authorities of Iraq and Libya, which preceded the interventions, the accusations of all mortal sins, the initiation of UN Security Council resolutions, etc. Now, with the exception of unintelligible and also rather sluggish accusations of using chemical weapons, nothing not. It is strange, for example, that neither the United States, nor the European Union, which is always concerned about the rights of others, set the alarm on refugees. (The UN cites more and more dismal statistics, but without a special reaction.) At one time, the refugee issue became the trigger for the escalation around the Balkans and twice led to military intervention. Syrians fleeing the war are already enough in all neighboring countries, and according to the previous logic, this would be enough to announce a humanitarian catastrophe or even, as some diplomats suggest, to accuse Assad of aggression. Waves of refugees spread throughout the region, and the Syrian president is responsible for what happens to him, and it can be represented that instability in neighboring countries is the result of his actions, and this is aggression.

Officially, it is impossible to conduct such decisions through the UN Security Council because of Russia, but to launch a campaign to form public opinion, the Moscow veto will not hurt, quite the contrary. However, instead of this, in Europe and especially in America, the Russian factor is used as a blessed excuse - to shrug and say that it is impossible to do anything. If Russia were a real obstacle, the pressure on it would be much greater.

Now, spells about Putin’s isolation at the G8 and the Kremlin’s loneliness in the face of general condemnation are in sharp contrast with the results of the official talks.

The Russian line of conduct is indeed an unusually direct one for two and a half years. All attempts by Western commentators to see “mitigation” and “greater flexibility” actually revealed just the flexibility on the opposite side - the American one. In addition to the reasons for stubbornness, which have already been written about more than once (the desire to preserve Syrian statehood, since any alternative to Assad does not look reliable, there is a much more banal desire to prevent the repetition of the Libyan precedent). And why, actually, Russia to change the approach? The defeat of Assad, which has long been predicted, does not occur. Noticeable determination to him this defeat is not visible. It is hardly possible to extract the benefits from the “surrender” of Assad - no bargaining, besides a fair of ambitions and vanity, is on the Syrian issue. By the way, for the United States, in fact, success in Syria is not so important that Washington is ready to go for complex exchanges in a wide range beyond this topic. So there is no reason to change. Unless, of course, you begin to be guided by the pretentious rhetoric about the freedom-loving people who are suffering from the decapitated dictator, but it seems that those who draw it also do not believe in this simple picture.

However, the hopelessness of the Syrian situation is that Russia will not extract dividends from its own intransigence. A return to the former situation in Syria is impossible: even if Assad remains for a long time, the old country is no longer there. Forcing the parties to a peaceful dialogue, most likely, will not work: the peace conference is being postponed from month to month. The chances of a military victory of one of the parties are minimal - here the external forces that have put on Assad and his opponents will simply lay bones so as not to lose. Thus, a serious supply of weapons to the rebels can become a reality if there is a threat of their defeat by the government army. This will not allow neither America nor Europe, nor the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Likewise, the opposite: Russia (and Iran) will not allow Assad to weaken enough to start losing. More likely to be a rise in foreign participation in the form of various kinds of mercenaries like Hezbollah on the part of the government or jihad warriors on the part of the opposition. This will only emphasize the regional nature of what is happening, in which external forces have limited influence.

The Syrian war includes many dimensions of the current international situation, and one of them is the evolution of American politics. After the breakthrough to hegemony, undertaken in the first half of the 2000-s, a rollback began. The withdrawal from Iraq was followed by the emergence of the concept of “leadership from behind the scenes”, an indirect involvement tested in Libya. Now there is no him, there is a desire to delay the time to find a justification for non-intervention. It is noteworthy that another more than a significant event took place this week: it was announced that the United States was beginning direct negotiations with the Taliban on the future of Afghanistan.

Nearly 12 years after the American forces had removed the Taliban from power, they were actually starting a conversation about transferring it back. The disappointing outcome of the long-term campaign, but, most importantly, is quite a clear signal to recognize the limits of their own capabilities.

Now we should watch Iran: will the White House try to take advantage of the advent of the "reformer" to break the deadlock and begin reconciliation with a sworn enemy.

Taking advantage of the beaten phrase of Chancellor Gorchakov, America is focusing. For its future positions in the world, Syria and even Iran are less important than the creation of the economic community of the USA and the EU, which the countries concerned announced at the G8. If this succeeds, and there are enough obstacles here, then the possibility of a new “West” to influence world processes and impose its own rules of the game will increase dramatically. Regardless of how many more victims the Syrian war will bring and how the Sunnis and Shiites will divide the Middle East.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.versii.com/news/281437/
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  1. Nicholas C.
    Nicholas C. 24 June 2013 07: 05 New
    10
    Assad and the people of Syria - victory!

    the hopelessness of the Syrian situation lies in the fact that Russia will not extract dividends from its own intransigence.

    Now, on the other hand, they began to come in, explain about hopelessness. And America, they say, is not particularly necessary.
    1. Orel
      Orel 24 June 2013 08: 24 New
      +8
      America is gradually returning to the origins of its power, to the restoration and development of the economy, which was promoted not by the "world gendarme" policy, but by the policy of "isolationism." At the beginning of the 20th century, the US army had only 3 divisions at its disposal and the US did not interfere with anything, but lived according to the principle: "My house is on the edge." Huge funds went into the development of science, business, infrastructure, since almost nothing was spent on maintaining the army (the fence off by the oceans made it possible). This is how the United States grew into a global economic leader. Now, the role of a global military and political leader has exhausted the United States so much that it has decided to restrain its horses, and may in the future even distance itself from many of them.
      1. albanec
        albanec 24 June 2013 15: 27 New
        +2
        That's just too late Americans realized. Government debt, rapidly approaching 17 trillion. dollars hanging over america by damocles sword. No sequestration, no debt reform will reduce.
    2. Siberian German
      Siberian German 24 June 2013 08: 42 New
      +3
      yes no there is some common sense in this
    3. vezunchik
      vezunchik 24 June 2013 19: 33 New
      +1
      cry for the USA ... how many more sobs will still be ...
  2. tronin.maxim
    tronin.maxim 24 June 2013 07: 10 New
    +5
    Interesting conversation. It seems to me that Obama does not need this war for nothing, that is, it is not needed at all. There is a group, a powerful lobby that pushes this idea. Apparently Obama himself is not happy with his post. Judging by the conversation in the US, there is a split in the issue of Syria, which we naturally feel good. Although it is worrying that the US military is located near Syria. If they come up with a reason to invade the situation will change dramatically for the worse. Although it is not worth making a guess, the situation is too complicated to draw any adequate conclusions!
    1. cartridge
      cartridge 24 June 2013 09: 48 New
      +3
      ... for the United States, in fact, success in Syria is not so important that Washington is ready to go on difficult exchanges in a wide circle that goes beyond the scope of this topic.

      After a breakthrough to hegemony undertaken in the first half of the 2000s, a rollback came. The withdrawal from Iraq was followed by the emergence of the concept of “backstage leadership”, an indirect involvement tested in Libya. Now there is no him, there is a desire to drag out time to find justifications for non-interference.

      Nearly 12 years after the American forces had removed the Taliban from power, they were actually starting a conversation about transferring it back. The disappointing outcome of the long-term campaign, but, most importantly, is quite a clear signal to recognize the limits of their own capabilities.

      ... America is focusing. For its future positions in the world, Syria and even Iran are less important than creating an economic community in the US and the EU.


      Putin needs to have time to take advantage of this lull for solving our foreign policy problems.
      The Middle East is important to us, but that is not the point. The main thing is Ukraine!
      Over the return of this part of Russia it is necessary to seriously consider the GDP. Will be able to solve this issue - will go down in history at the level of Peter the Great.
      But it will not work with today's Ukrainian parties. There are not politicians, but fugitives from the madhouse. Create new parties? Long.
      Putin needs to think about how to reformat Ukraine and build a puzzle that ideally fits with Russia.
      1. Curculum
        Curculum 24 June 2013 09: 54 New
        10
        Quote: cartridge
        Putin needs to have time to take advantage of this lull for solving our foreign policy problems.

        laughing
        1. 31-RUS
          31-RUS 24 June 2013 10: 13 New
          +2
          Five points!!!!
      2. fisherman
        fisherman 24 June 2013 15: 15 New
        +2
        I agree, there is time, and the task is formulated ("collect stones"), it is not for nothing that "clubs of interest" are gathering around the world, it will become more noticeable when the WTO becomes a rudiment, while the number of trade wars will increase

        we also create our own zone of interest - the CU (economic plane), but it’s not for nothing that the EU shuns even the thought of Ukraine’s entry, considering the internal split into two halves to be very deep, only covered up

        for us zapadentsy is another fifth column
      3. Corneli
        Corneli 25 June 2013 02: 46 New
        0
        Quote: cartridge
        Putin needs to think about how to reformat Ukraine and build a puzzle that ideally fits with Russia.

        Forcibly, it just doesn't work out ... "fugitives from the madhouse won't give it") And numerous sanctions and attacks (so that we have right now from Russia), will only strengthen the position of "zapadentsev" and Russophobia ... So the GDP needs a new one come up with ...
  3. Lech from ZATULINKI
    Lech from ZATULINKI 24 June 2013 07: 13 New
    21
    However, the hopelessness of the Syrian situation is that Russia will not extract dividends from its own intransigence

    Not true - dividends already have a lot of militants who would have fought in our Caucasus in packs under the bullets of ASADA fighters.
    Further, for the first time in the recent history of RUSSIA, she rested her horns against the will of the Godep of the United States and does not intend to change her position
    this already gives rise to hope that RUSSIA will have its own independent policy.

    And finally, we saw that the WEST is not as strong as before - and there is someone to break his horns.
    1. polly
      polly 24 June 2013 08: 03 New
      20
      And we also saw how much in politics depends on the personality of the person at the helm of the country! It is unlikely that the result would be today's, I think, looking at this photo ...
      1. ramsi
        ramsi 24 June 2013 08: 27 New
        10
        very meaningful, I would even say "spiritualized" person, the very "first person".
        So I remember: "Well-meaning and sad anecdote - what geldings are now grazing the people."
      2. My address
        My address 24 June 2013 09: 18 New
        +7
        Only because of the muzzle of the face of such, not only in the astronauts, but also in the janitors (what he did as a student) take only in the enemy alien area.

        And if you take into account his "achievements" ...
      3. Revolver
        Revolver 25 June 2013 04: 45 New
        0
        Quote: polly
        And we also saw how much in politics depends on the personality of the person at the helm of the country! It is unlikely that the result would be today's, I think, looking at this photo ...

        Photoshop that doesn't even try too hard to pretend to be a documentary. And Assad smiled - with such a physique and in such a pose the blacks in the New York subway beg for a trifle, but at the same time they hold a plastic cup in their hand so that they throw a trifle there. Spare change, please!
    2. Mikhail3
      Mikhail3 24 June 2013 11: 25 New
      +8
      It's like that. We extract "dividends" every day, because the world sees that Russia is back in power and does not abandon its friends. The significance of this has yet to be realized ... I bet that within the next two years one of our strategic partners will be ... Turkey! And then the West will find itself in a truly precarious position.
      And as for the "economic community" - they made a strong statement, there is nothing to say. A European woman covered in snag will become a powerful support for America, which has insolently hammered into work. Bringing together the goons to empty the table is an idea. The only thing is - are we going to throw food on the table? You need to force your international bank with all your might ...
  4. kind
    kind 24 June 2013 07: 32 New
    +8
    Almost 12 years after the American troops removed the Taliban from power, they actually begin to talk about transferring it back.

    Shtatniks no longer know how to rude Russia. They again decided to shake Central Asia with the help of the Taliban, and first of all, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
  5. ramsi
    ramsi 24 June 2013 08: 23 New
    +5
    the EU and US community? It's somehow doubtful. In the sense - there is nowhere closer, because there can be only one "king of the hill", the rest are either enemies-competitors, or allies-singers
  6. olviko
    olviko 24 June 2013 08: 33 New
    +9
    In a sense, the situation is like in that fable: "The eye sees, but the tooth does not." The West, of course, can overwhelm Assad, but apparently the costs of a direct invasion are too high - losses in manpower and equipment, and in general war is an expensive matter, but there is a crisis in the yard. Here Russia also stood up like a bone across the throat - the same, if something happens, it will gladly help its sworn friends to wash with blood. To rake in the heat with someone else's hands is also not very successful, Assad is slowly grinding the Basmachi, with the help of Allah and all progressive humanity. I agree with the author of the article that US policy is beginning to change. Americans understand that being the world's gendarme is a very expensive pleasure, no strength will be enough. Gradually folding, they, at the same time, try to leave behind such mines - bookmarks for their main opponents and competitors. In the form of radical Salafist formations, ready to destroy the infidels, seize power by force of arms, establish their own rules. It's no secret that Russia, China, and now Western Europe have their own problems with radical Islamists. Thus, manipulating these scumbags, helping them with weapons and money, you can create problems for one or another state, as an example, the Chechen war. In short, you cannot relax, you will not get bored with amers.
  7. Xnumx kopeek
    Xnumx kopeek 24 June 2013 09: 49 New
    +6
    Quote: Orel
    America is gradually returning to the origins of its power, to the restoration and development of the economy, which was promoted not by the "world gendarme" policy, but by the policy of "isolationism." At the beginning of the 20th century, the US army had only 3 divisions at its disposal and the US did not interfere with anything, but lived according to the principle: "My house is on the edge." Huge funds went into the development of science, business, infrastructure, since almost nothing was spent on maintaining the army (the fence off by the oceans made it possible). This is how the United States grew into a global economic leader. Now, the role of a global military and political leader has exhausted the United States so much that it has decided to restrain its horses, and may in the future even distance itself from many of them.

    --- They took part in World War I - / somewhere around 1 million 500 army / -
    -Federal Reserve System / FRS / -one of the reasons for all the wars of the Americans / if not the only one / - The cost of the dollar is 0 cents.-print one banknote / of any nomination / -03 cents.-Lisc 5/1 of America. money is supported by gold .- / Lincoln was killed / et al / it was because of a drink to get rid of this system / by printing his money / -Gaddafi has almost introduced his gold dinar as real money / ---
    We will conclude this speech with a quote from Ford / kotoriy car / - "If you deprive 50 of America's richest families of money, then the world will end wars, revolutions, etc."
    The rest is all flies on a cutlet. fellow
  8. Vtel
    Vtel 24 June 2013 10: 43 New
    +3
    It's time for Obama to return to his "barrack", there is nothing to muddy the waters in the Mediterranean. The Cold War ended a long time ago, now a hot one can flare up and hardly anyone will see it. The main thing is that our current government does not surrender Syria, like Libya and Yugoslavia, otherwise it will be a catalyst for further robbery of kosher all over the world regardless of the person.
  9. dominion
    dominion 24 June 2013 11: 15 New
    +7
    "It's time for Obama to return to his 'barrack', there is nothing to muddy the waters in the Mediterranean."

    What are you like small children, Barack da Barak. Obama is the six in the hands of the richest Jewish families in the United States. However, like the Oland, Merkel, and so on and so forth.
    We must say this: "It's time for the Jews to get out to their USA in a good, healthy way."
  10. Ulysses
    Ulysses 24 June 2013 12: 55 New
    +4
    America focuses ??
    Oh well, "politics is the art of the possible ". crying
  11. Tolik.Skiff.
    Tolik.Skiff. 24 June 2013 13: 26 New
    +3
    The United States is clearly overestimating its possibilities of military-political domination in the world, which makes the United States very vulnerable to a possible retaliatory biological-biological aggression on its territory. It is no secret that with a very developed small aircraft and easy accessibility, "Armageddon" is not far off. that this has not happened yet, just their luck. When the radical elites understand the whole prostate and the versatility of biological weapons ... Not rockets, not planes and ships will not help them ... "Pondora's Box" is easy to open, but close ... (?) yes
    1. Firstvanguard
      Firstvanguard 18 July 2013 17: 20 New
      0
      the baby will understand the whole prostate

      laughing laughing wassat
  12. krakozyabr777
    krakozyabr777 24 June 2013 13: 55 New
    +2
    A competent article, however ...
  13. vdenisov56
    vdenisov56 24 June 2013 20: 12 New
    0
    The justification of US diplomacy is similar to the excuse of impotent - it did not work, I didn’t really want to.
  14. Tolik.Skiff.
    Tolik.Skiff. 24 June 2013 20: 37 New
    +2
    The flag is "bad", I see they attached it ... Krasnodar didn’t join Iceland !!! stop According to the latest events: "The United States may shoot down a plane flying to Havana," comments the media. A complete utopia and a bluff! What are the sanctions ,,, ...? lol Noverno, they will descend from the ISS on porashuty, Pepsi will not be delivered ... Let's drink kvass !!! Agony ... Illness of their "Greatness" crying Further, they will be even worse ... We, and the whole world, are waiting for big perimes ... But which countries will survive from them? .. But Russia didn’t see that mother !!!
  15. ia-ai00
    ia-ai00 24 June 2013 20: 42 New
    +1
    Curcul (4)

    It’s so good that there are HUMORISTS on the site! You +100 !!!
  16. Boa kaa
    Boa kaa 24 June 2013 23: 44 New
    +2
    States focus. What is it for? It turns out ... they want to merge in economic ecstasy with the EU. Why would you suddenly? But alone, it cannot be pulled against rapprochement and a possible union of the Russian Federation and the PRC. Oh how!
    And what else? And there is still hope to gobble up its economic partner through the penetration of TNCs into its structures and eliminate the dangerous center of economic influence.
    Faced with Putin's determination to defend Russian interests to the end, defending his ally (Syria) at the G-8 summit, the states suddenly felt a treacherous slack in their knees: the Europeans, and above all the FRG, are not ready blindly, like sheep, to follow the US goat. The emergency passage through the UN does not work. Russia is blocking resolutions against Syria in the Security Council. It is supported by the PRC. Going to open aggression against Syria without an "iron" reason is tantamount to political suicide. In addition, "it is impossible to wage a war unpopular among the people." And old Europe is not going to change a well-fed measured life for goals incomprehensible to the plebs, invading the new Afghanistan.
    So what to do? Only focus!
    1. Tolik.Skiff.
      Tolik.Skiff. 25 June 2013 00: 35 New
      0
      Ordinary Americans (in Los Angeles) do not even get interested in the politics of their country ... Yes, and in other states, the situation is not very ... I think if we invite ordinary Americans to this site for discussion (without any discrimination, for normal communication, without scumbags) we will be a plus !!! How to DO it ???? hi
  17. Tolik.Skiff.
    Tolik.Skiff. 24 June 2013 23: 50 New
    0
    A very long time ago (in the years of my youth, I met with the young leaders of Hamas, as well as the leaders of present-day Israel ...) I won’t give ratings to these characters, but to Polestina, I personally sympathize ... You can ban. Trust me not against Israel. ..
    1. Revolver
      Revolver 25 June 2013 04: 49 New
      +1
      But didn’t you forget the Russian language in your Iceland for an hour? And then something your spelling is lame.
      1. Tolik.Skiff.
        Tolik.Skiff. 25 June 2013 14: 42 New
        0
        You are very right ... I had my own woodworking plant near Aleppa (in Syria) ... Sorry. I can make mistakes in spelling ... But the very essence of my worldviews does not change from this .... Sorry.
  18. Revolver
    Revolver 25 June 2013 05: 20 New
    0
    Well, what did you want? Well, what can be foreign policy if there is no long-term planning? And what for ... long-term planning if the vector of foreign policy changes every 8 years, if not 4? And, alas and ah, the foreign policy is usually run not by a professional, but by a political appointee. Clintonsha was a secretary of state, now Kerry. The last time, Condy Rice was a more or less professional secretary of state, but even then, in the first term, Bush broke such firewood that she couldn’t get it. Some ideas to build shit democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan were worth what - well, what kind of democracy do these chocks have if they are allahakbar?
    Here you will regret the absence of the USSR and Andrei Gromyko. In those days, at least the main vector of US foreign policy was deterrence of the USSR. And since the vector of Soviet politics was quite constant, American politics also had to be constant, of course, adjusted for the next White House guest. Nixon and Ford normally seemed to agree on detente. Then an eccentric came in with the letter M Carter, and with him the well-known Russophobe Pan Brzezinski, and instead of a business conversation, they began to give Brezhnev lectures on human rights and democratic freedoms - well, naturally, the conversation did not work.
    In general, there was no coherent foreign policy, no, and not soon.
    1. Tolik.Skiff.
      Tolik.Skiff. 25 June 2013 15: 40 New
      0
      You are very mistaken ... I left politics long ago ... But I knew Raisa and Mikhail personally ... I signed many documents myself ... Quite a lot of people who manage now are not professionals ..! Volodya is a career officer, the education is very good. everything to him razgrebsti. And "comrade" Shevornadze, Rudskoy, those more ...! Democracy? ...
    2. Tolik.Skiff.
      Tolik.Skiff. 25 June 2013 16: 28 New
      0
      The site was surprised by the Americans !!! Nice ... drinks
  19. uhu189
    uhu189 25 June 2013 12: 51 New
    0
    A good article, and most importantly written between the lines. Only it really becomes uncomfortable with this main thing ...