Military Review

Eternal battle afghanistan

32
Eternal battle afghanistanIn the second half of April, several serious armed clashes of the armed forces of Afghanistan and the opposition, which in Kabul are associated with the Taliban, occurred at once. This situation looks especially frightening in anticipation of the withdrawal from the country of foreign troops, scheduled for 2014 year.


On April 17, the Afghan security forces, with the assistance of NATO troops, conducted a series of counter-terrorism operations, which, according to the Afghan Interior Ministry, "eliminated the Taliban 38, seized ammunition, artillery shells and explosive devices of handicraft." The sweeps were carried out in several provinces of the country - Kunar, Nangarhar, Laghman, Kandahar, Zabul, Ghazni, Paktiya and Nimroz.

The reaction of the opponents of Kabul was not long in coming. On the same day, in the northern province of Jowzjan, the bodies of four soldiers of the Afghan army, previously captured by the Taliban, were found, as well as the body of another hostage, a Turkish citizen, engaged in the transport of goods. 19 In April, in the province of Ghazni, 13 was killed by local residents who were in some kind of anti-Taliban militia. Representatives of the Taliban movement claimed responsibility for the attack. 22 April, they announced the seizure of a helicopter company Horasan Cargo Airlines, which made an emergency landing in the province of Logar. A team of foreign engineers on board, as well as pilots - citizens of Russia and Afghanistan, were captured.

Undoubtedly, any escalation of tension in Afghanistan, where the conflict has been going on for more than thirty years, is always alarming. But it is doubly alarming that civilians, including foreigners, are increasingly becoming victims of the fighting. Moreover, many experts believe that things will only get worse. For example, the current deterioration of the situation in the country gives grounds for observers to assert that the departure of the Americans and their allies will inevitably lead to an aggravation of the internal political struggle in Afghanistan, as it happened in the 1990s.

Similar views, by the way, are shared by high-ranking military of Western countries. Thus, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, General Martin Dempsey, at the beginning of April called the Taliban a long-term threat to the security of Afghanistan. “Even after ten years, they may be able to control certain territories of the country,” he believes. General Joseph Dunford, commander of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, agrees with him. He stated that he "doubts the idea of ​​including the Taliban in legal political activities for the 2014 year."

The Pentagon report, released last December, points to another serious problem - the combat effectiveness of the Afghan army and police remains at an extremely low level. The unreadiness of the Afghan law enforcement agencies to independently and effectively solve security problems was clearly demonstrated by the events in Afghan Badakhshan. During February and March of this year, militants terrorized the local population and the authorities of Badakhshan County Varduj. Hundreds of families were forced to flee their homes for fear of aggression by militants, among whom, according to Kabul officials, were members of Al-Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and the Taliban. Only in early April, the Afghan military with aviation NATO managed to drive the militants out of the villages of Varduja, but by the middle of the month some of them had returned.

All this makes you think about what will happen to Afghanistan and its society after 2014, when the main forces of the United States and NATO leave the country. What form will the civil conflict take? Will it move to a qualitatively new level, as happened after the Soviet troops left Afghanistan in 1989? Who and how will control the country, where more than one generation of people who can only fight grew up? Will Afghanistan become the center of propagation of religious extremism and political radicalism in the region?

The latter is particularly relevant given the fact that in the north of the country, in the province of Badakhshan, as assured in Kabul, international terrorists from various organizations are operating. According to Russian experts, the Taliban and their supporters from the “IMU” and “Al-Qaeda” organize a springboard for a breakthrough to the countries of Central Asia or, possibly, China. In this sense, Afghan Badakhshan really occupies a unique geostrategic position, adjoining simultaneously with Tajikistan, China and Pakistan. If the Afghan security forces fail to take control of these areas of the country, no one will give guarantees that the militants will not be on the other side of the border.

And this can be a serious problem not only for the neighbors of Afghanistan, but also for those regional and world powers that are somehow involved in the process of inter-Afghan settlement. That is why the military-political situation in this country today attracts the attention of the whole world.

The difficult situation and events of twenty years ago, when tough domestic political, intercommunal and inter-ethnic competition between Pashtuns, on the one hand, and Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Shiite-Hazaras, on the other, tore apart Afghanistan into parts, do not allow making rosy forecasts for further development situations. At the same time, in some countries the Taliban are considered as part of the solution to the Afghan problem, in others - as the main obstacle to a peaceful settlement. For example, in Russia they are sure that Washington should by all means finish the work it began in 2001 to destroy the Taliban. Moscow is suspicious of the fact that the United States is trying to establish a dialogue with these most irreconcilable and consistent opponents of the West and President Hamid Karzai.

Karzai, in turn, is also worried about the future. He has repeatedly made it clear that the current democratic regime with him or his successor can repeat the fate of the pro-communist regime of Najibullah, who, having lost the support of Russia, instantly lost power.

Meanwhile, it is clear that Washington and its European allies are not interested in a radical change in the situation in Afghanistan after the 2014 year and will try to prevent the country from slipping into chaos. That is why the United States and NATO are insured and plan to leave thousands of troops in the country from 8 to 12. Their main function in the future should be the training of law enforcement officers - the army and representatives of law enforcement agencies in Afghanistan. But at the same time, Americans are focusing on the need to integrate temperate groups from the Taliban into the political process.

Apparently, the Western coalition proceeds from the Iraqi experience and is trying to repeat it on Afghan soil. Indeed, the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq, despite the security problems there, did not lead to the elimination of the social and political system that was created after the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime with direct American participation. Perhaps the whole point is that before the withdrawal of troops from Iraq, Washington formed a well-established and so far successfully operating system of balances of the main political groups of this country, consisting of Iraqi Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds. In one form or another, it takes into account the needs of almost all elements of society, and this state of affairs at the present moment quite suits the Iraqis. But the most interesting thing is that the system of checks and balances can work effectively only with the mediation of the United States, which guarantees the preservation of the balance of power.

It is not excluded that it is from these very considerations in Afghanistan that the Americans are trying to find a common language with those who today are called the Taliban. For Washington, it is extremely important to find a place in the Afghan political system for representatives of influential opposition Pashtun tribes and organizations, so that in the future they will not act as competitors and rivals of the central government. First of all, of course, we are talking about the Taliban, who at first glance represent the main threat.

The problem, however, is that the Taliban in their usual form has not existed for a long time. The movement was formed with the direct participation of Pakistan to solve very specific geopolitical problems. For example, to open trade roads to Central Asia. Therefore, the rapid destruction of the Taliban troops in the fall of 2001, was largely due to the fact that Islamabad refused their previous support due to pressure from Washington. The United States, in return, promised Pakistan the investments necessary for its economy, recognized it as a nuclear state and strengthened military-technical cooperation with it.

It was the absence of the organizational structure of the Afghan militants, the amorphous nature of the armed resistance that all this time allowed Kabul and the command of the international forces to call the Taliban certain opposition Pashtun leaders and at the same time come into contact with them. For example, in 2008, the British actually transferred several cities and towns in Helmand province under the control of the so-called Taliban. At various times, the Taliban movement linked the former Prime Minister of the country Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, as well as the Haqqani family from a small, but rather militant and influential tribe bullied.

Meanwhile, after 2001, Pakistan continued to forge informal ties with Pashtun field commanders and tribal leaders, which often irritated Washington and Kabul. Therefore, the opening of the Taliban’s representation in Qatar, which has been referred to in recent months, may indirectly indicate the existence of some agreements between Washington and Islamabad. It is possible that the Americans consciously go on increasing the role of Pakistan in Afghanistan, in exchange for the fact that it will support their efforts in an inter-Afghan settlement and their measures to stabilize the situation after the 2014 year. For the Pakistani leadership, this is a real chance to influence the Afghan situation or part of Pashtun society. Thus, Islamabad can restrain the growth of Pashtun nationalism or prevent a situation in which the new Afghan authorities could raise the painful question of the “Durand Line”, which in Kabul is not recognized as a state border.

Naturally, the existence of such agreements limits the maneuvers of Kabul itself. Therefore, Karzai is very critical of Washington’s attempts to bring him to the negotiating table with the Taliban, and in fact, with those opposition Pashtun tribes that may have ties with Pakistan. Hence the constant attacks against Islamabad, which, in his words, "continues to support the Taliban."

It is significant that in the middle of March Karzai sharply opposed Washington’s initiatives. However, after 26’s unexpected March visit to Kabul by US Secretary of State John Kerry, he suddenly changed his position. Moreover, on April 1, Hamid Karzai flew to Qatar, with whom he discussed, among other things, the opening of the Taliban in Doha. It is also curious that before meeting with Karzai, Kerry held talks with the head of the Pakistani army, General Ashfaq Kiyani, in Jordan, during which security problems in Afghanistan and the South Asian region as a whole were raised.

It is difficult to get rid of the feeling that Karzai was simply confronted with the fact and offered to play the role assigned to him. Hence, it is not surprising that upon returning from Qatar, he not only spoke about the possibility of a truce with the Taliban, but also stated that even “Mullah Omar can stand as a candidate for the presidency in the elections” to be held next year. It is clear that this possibility looks the least realistic, but, most likely, the words were addressed to those who may be behind the armed opposition of Kabul, for example Pakistan.

In this regard, the most intriguing is the fact that the escalation of armed confrontation in Afghanistan coincided with the efforts of external parties to resolve the conflict. There is no doubt that the revival of the military-political situation did not happen by itself, but is a reflection of the hidden political or geopolitical processes that are taking place in and around Afghanistan. Surely Karzai, on his own initiative or with US support, wants to raise political stakes before the start of the negotiation process. This can best be done by maximally weakening the position of the enemy. Therefore, in April, stripping operations were carried out at once in several provinces of the country.

Probably the armed opposition was guided by the same considerations. This may explain why the clashes were observed not only in the southern and southeastern provinces, where the supporters of the Taliban movement are traditionally concentrated, but also in the northern regions of the country, where mostly ethnic minorities live. But the most interesting thing is the fact that some anti-Taliban militias appeared in Ghazni province and, possibly, in other places. Their creation and formation requires certain political and financial efforts on the part of Kabul. However, it cannot be excluded that this is also part of the strategy of the West. Thus, he can, on the one hand, give Kabul guarantees of continuity of the regime, and on the other, he can somewhat limit the activity of disloyal to the center of Pashtun tribes and the activities of Islamabad in the Afghan sector.

But then it is most logical to assume that today in Afghanistan, with the assistance of Washington, an important stage is beginning to form the rules of the game that the state and society should adhere to after 2014. This is a difficult task, but quite doable. Unless, of course, any force majeure or other external forces happen to want to interfere in big geopolitics.
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  1. svp67
    svp67 24 June 2013 05: 30
    +6
    All this makes you think about what will happen to Afghanistan and its society after 2014, when the main forces of the United States and NATO leave the country. What form will the civil conflict take? Will it move to a qualitatively new level, as happened after the Soviet troops left Afghanistan in 1989? Who and how will control the country, where more than one generation of people who can only fight grew up? Will Afghanistan become the center of propagation of religious extremism and political radicalism in the region?

    It was necessary to think about it earlier, or to think quickly now. For the United States, Afghanistan is a distant exotic country, for us it is a close southern neighbor, so along with Syria, we must now seek and help there those forces that are more understandable to us, less radical and more friendly to us ....
    1. Hleb
      Hleb 24 June 2013 06: 11
      +7
      Now it is necessary to look there and help
      and how to help? Can you imagine what sums should be poured there that will make Afghanistan friendly? (Will friendship still be in question) In the framework of the post-Soviet republics, unresolved problems are higher than the roof and so far it has not been possible to find forces there that would solve all the problems. send comments every day, an adequate answer, the base in Tajikistan and Baikonur is an unequal exchange. and with Afghanistan it’s much more difficult. And the Americans didn’t come there, they spent so much money and lives to take and leave today. feeling of satisfaction
      1. svp67
        svp67 24 June 2013 10: 03
        0
        Quote: Gleb
        and how to help? Can you imagine what amounts you need to pour in there that will make Afghanistan friendly? (Will there still be a question of friendship too)

        With money, weapons and political support ... it was possible in the days of the Taliban to solve this issue ... But this situation cannot be left to chance, it can all affect us too much.
        1. tomas.09
          tomas.09 24 June 2013 22: 25
          0
          Yes, you just need to leave Afghanistan alone. Let them develop themselves.
    2. Captain Vrungel
      Captain Vrungel 24 June 2013 07: 42
      +7
      You can't fight a nation. The freedom-loving people of Afghanistan prove this. Not taking advantage of the experience of Great Britain, we got into this cesspool. Yes, there were political forces supported from outside, but the mass of dushmans did not even know what their system was. We also had to retreat honorably, shedding a lot of our own and Afghan blood. There was a strong border and normal relations with Afghanistan, by the way, one of the first to recognize the Soviet Union and establish diplomatic relations. How did King Mohamed Zahir Shah interfere? They dragged them from the feudal side to the democratic state and got what they got. The Americans and other "peacekeepers" will leave the country with the same shame. And there will remain a country taught by civilization only to shoot and kill. You cannot climb and interfere in the internal affairs of other states (it's like getting into someone else's family). First, we provoke the people, organize a massacre and climb with "peacemakers". Throwing the development and economy of the country back for many years. The UN and the Security Council should not discuss the actions of the Taliban, but the provocations of the world terrorist and the gendarme in one person, the United States. "The policy of Kabul is directed," So it will operate within the center of Kabul. In the provinces, and even more so in distant villages, people live according to their own rules, they rely only on themselves and do not trust anyone.
      1. xetai9977
        xetai9977 24 June 2013 07: 49
        +4
        First of all, the Afghans themselves must understand each other. No external forces are able to put things in order there, and even the foreigners themselves are basically heating up the situation. They do not fight a nation. In the end, they themselves will come to a concensus. After all, they lived in peace until 1978.
      2. cartridge
        cartridge 24 June 2013 09: 24
        13
        In the eighties, I served in Afghanistan for three years in two visits.
        But then and now I do not have a clear idea of ​​what this country should be like. Trying to create a state there is a daunting task.
        Firstly, Afghan society is very different from our usual way of life. This is something like a very large gypsy camp. You can negotiate with the gypsy baro on any specific issues that need to be addressed by a separate tent or carriage here and now. But to negotiate with the gypsy leader for the future is impossible. He himself will not be able to say where and in what condition the camp will be tomorrow, in a month or in a year, and whether he himself will be alive by this time is also unknown. In this regard, Afghanistan is a copy of the colossal 15 million gypsy camp. Tabor can not be state in principle.
        Secondly, it is a civilizational divide. According to their calendar, now is not the 21st, but the 14th century according to the Muslim calendar. Due to absolute illiteracy and religious clogging, the achievements of our culture and civilization are not important to them. They can safely live without factories, dams, airplanes, the Internet, books, television and theaters. They certainly use cars and cell phones, but if this does not happen, then for them it is not a tragedy. Mentally, they are still in the 14th century. Therefore, our values ​​for them are not values ​​at all.
        Thirdly, to conduct military operations against them is again like fighting a large gypsy camp. At the first breaks, the camp runs up and you can look into each tent. But once you leave, after some time the camp again at this place, albeit somewhat thinned in number. Military methods can destroy the camp, but turning it into Cambridge will fail.
        No one knows how to solve these problems.
        There are two options. The first is to banally destroy them all and populate this territory with civilizationally more advanced peoples, but this is impossible because none of the leading politicians today will subscribe to the role of executioner for well-known reasons. Yes, and who to populate? Nearby live almost the same.
        The second option is the tightest control on the external borders of Afghanistan to prevent the export of heroin, arms smuggling and the passage of bandit groups. Also impossible. Every single neighbor of Afghanistan is mentally the same. Their carelessness and propensity to corruption will never allow to close the border.
        What to do in this situation?
        If we talk about Russia, then in my opinion it is advisable to carry out the following activities.
        Stop investing in humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. It is just a waste of resources. Everything will be stolen.
        We must concentrate our efforts on protecting our borders, first of all, do not deceive ourselves about the security of the southern direction, but create an impassable border with Kazakhstan. It is pointless to hope that our southern neighbors will be a reliable barrier against Afghan mud. Will not be due to the reasons mentioned above.
        Allocate funds to create genetic weapons that can destroy poppy plantations in Afghanistan. Or bring out a kind of Colorado potato beetle. Only for potatoes, but for poppy seeds.
        This will undermine the financial and economic basis of the criminal Afghan economy and Islamic banditry.
        It is necessary to create conditions in the country that do not attract Asians, but frighten them away.
        This is not only visas, but primarily criminal prosecution for illegal stay in Russia; not affectionate deportation, but many years of hard labor in the Arctic; not ridiculous terms, but the restoration of the death penalty for any manifestations of the drug business.
        We must stop flirting with the Basurmans on the construction of mosques in our cities, ban all forms of radical Islamic propaganda and ruthlessly punish it.
        Then, having lost incentives and a nutrient medium, this rot will look for more affordable goals for itself.
        1. creak
          creak 24 June 2013 10: 27
          +2
          Fully support. The only way and no other way. I myself am a war veteran in another country.
        2. avt
          avt 24 June 2013 11: 00
          0
          Quote: cartridge
          The second option is the tightest control on the external borders of Afghanistan to prevent the export of heroin, arms smuggling and the passage of bandit groups. Also impossible. Every single neighbor of Afghanistan is mentally the same. Their carelessness and propensity to corruption will never allow to close the border.

          Imagine, the then ruler of Pakistan, General Ziauldhak, seems to have begun negotiations with the USSR on the closure of Pakistan's border with Afghanistan during the withdrawal of Soviet troops. True, he died immediately in a plane crash and the "zero" option did not take place.
        3. fzr1000
          fzr1000 24 June 2013 15: 51
          +2
          It is necessary to create conditions in the country that do not attract Asians, but frighten them away.
          This is not only visas, but primarily criminal prosecution for illegal stay in Russia; not affectionate deportation, but many years of hard labor in the Arctic; not ridiculous terms, but the restoration of the death penalty for any manifestations of the drug business.



          I wrote almost word for word in the comments to the article about 30000 rubles for migrants.
        4. Vovka levka
          Vovka levka 24 June 2013 18: 18
          0
          Quote: cartridge
          In the eighties, I served in Afghanistan for three years in two visits.
          But then and now I do not have a clear idea of ​​what this country should be like. Trying to create a state there is a daunting task.

          I read your comment, everything seems to be correct, reason soberly, based on personal experience. But this is your (our) logic, but they live in their own world. And the logic in them is different, completely different.
          The measures that you propose at first glance are excellent, but not feasible. Because the propensity for corruption is also fully inherent in us, and this is not an issue in this system. And I would like to go to heaven, but sins are not allowed.
        5. tomas.09
          tomas.09 24 June 2013 22: 29
          0
          Damn, I grabbed it from the tongue !!!
      3. avt
        avt 24 June 2013 09: 44
        0
        Quote: Captain Vrungel
        You can’t fight a nation. The freedom-loving people of Afghanistan prove this.

        I would say otherwise in the words of Napoleon, you can do everything with bayonets, you cannot sit on bayonets. Immediately after the civilian, we entered Afghanistan and changed the regime, immediately withdrawing the troops. And Najib, by the way, kept up very well for two years until he was betrayed by his hunchbacked Yeltsin, refusing to sell fuels and lubricants, fuel and spare parts for equipment for MONEY.
        Quote: Captain Vrungel
        There was a strong border and normal relations with Afghanistan, by the way, one of the first to recognize the Soviet Union and establish diplomatic relations. What prevented King Mohamed Zahir Shah? They dragged from the feudal storages to a democratic state and received what they received.

        And here is a question to the southeast, and then-and his knights of the revolution, now the cloak and dagger. With what fright did the two Communist Parties of Afghanistan - the parcham and the hulk - stir up the revolution and then begin to slaughter each other? How is it - Amina some advisers poison, and others from the embassy of the USSR send doctors and save? I also amused the photos on the screen saver - these will not go to the caravan. Penderostans will be stoned laughing
  2. Genady1976
    Genady1976 24 June 2013 05: 45
    +1
    As if already helped, ten years of the USSR, the color of the nation.
  3. Genady1976
    Genady1976 24 June 2013 06: 02
    -1
    Americans hit by Taliban machine gun fire

    and Amer’s super weapon doesn't help
  4. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov 24 June 2013 06: 04
    +3
    Of course, Karzai will be against it, but he understands that if the US starts negotiations with the Taliban, it means that it will be merged. Although it has already been leaked, the president of Afghanistan has it laughing A naive man Karzai really thought that they would support him forever. He would be slaughtered by the Taliban or his own guard, which he would begin to change in the near future, old and again fear.
    By the way, when the amers entered Afghanistan, American newspapers wrote that the American military managed to do in two weeks what the USSR could not in ten years, namely to win a war. Why are they now trying not to remember this bvstroy "victory" in the West?
  5. bomg.77
    bomg.77 24 June 2013 06: 04
    +2
    Yes, a more or less serious enemy and the United States and NATO with their tail between their legs are felled home. And if you consider that no one armed the Taliban as they armed the Madjahideen against the USSR, it is clear what kind of warriors they are. As the commander of the tank Otto Karius said in his book "Tigers in the Mud" - In the end, five Russians were more dangerous than thirty Americans. We have already noticed this in the last few days of fighting in the west.
  6. FC SKIF
    FC SKIF 24 June 2013 06: 08
    +4
    There is simply no country like Afghanistan. There is a conglomeration of nationalities, everlasting because of the scarcity of resources, which unites in the event of an external threat. To leave them alone with themselves - let them have fun as they know how. And geneticists and breeders should be given the task of developing a Colorado potato beetle variety that devoured sleeping papaver poppy (Papaver somniferum). Then they will have nothing to buy cartridges and machine guns for, and less will be littered in the yards of syringes. And there will be all happiness.
    1. Hleb
      Hleb 24 June 2013 06: 52
      +2
      And to geneticists and breeders to give the task to develop a variety of Colorado beetles, devouring sleeping pills


      For the implementation of such an idea, you can safely give the Nobel Prize, since almost everyone knows that the Colorado beetle is still a beetle, you won’t strangle it, you won’t kill it. In addition, it is absolutely incorruptible t.v.a.r. have tremendous mobility.
  7. Pit
    Pit 24 June 2013 06: 09
    +2
    After the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban quickly captured
    power and began to knock out the remaining Mujahideen. In order to have them
    authorities recognized legitimate in the world they banned production and sale
    drugs and began to build a normal state, albeit in its own way
    understanding. With the advent of NATO, all the best that has been done
    collapsed, and what the Taliban themselves tried to destroy in order to live like
    people bloomed in even stronger. Now if you support anyone, it’s
    Taliban and harsh conditions. In principle, this is the only
    relatively adequate gang throughout Afghanistan.
  8. Orel
    Orel 24 June 2013 06: 09
    +5
    Leaders, tribes, clan ... What kind of democracy, unity of the country and security can we talk about? To solve security problems it is necessary to block financial flows, it will be impossible to continue the armed struggle without money. To block the financing of the underground, it is necessary first of all to destroy poppy crops and, in general, to carry out a comprehensive and uncompromising fight against drugs. But they do not. Each has his own piece of this pie, I won’t be surprised if American generals too.
    1. ale-x
      ale-x 24 June 2013 09: 23
      0
      Take the above, I think, not only the generals and security services that are heated by the flame. This brings much greater dividends to senior management of the United States and its accomplices. From direct cash receipts to the destruction (drug addiction) of the population of Eastern Europe and the CIS. Plus, a hotbed of extremism, which can be fun to direct in the right direction (country).
  9. The comment was deleted.
  10. Vanek
    Vanek 24 June 2013 06: 18
    +2
    Purely humanly Afghans already feel sorry. The USSR fought for 10 years, the United States has been there for more than a dozen years. Peaceful Afghans feel sorry ...
    1. dc120mm
      dc120mm 24 June 2013 12: 22
      0
      Yes, sorry, very sorry even. There will be no peace for a long time.
  11. albai
    albai 24 June 2013 08: 08
    +5
    A whole generation has grown up in Afghanistan who do not know a peaceful life. There and under the Soviet Army there were very strict rules of life according to Islam. I remember an Afghan who worked on a piece of the field asked that the power of the people is already there, why don't you take all the land? In response, he said, Allah gave him this piece and the rich man the rest of the land, and he has no right to take his land. In fact, the Pashtun nomads are very militant people. But Asia is Asia, the Pashtun politicians are thoroughly corrupt. Everyone sells and everyone buys. Karzai will face the fate of Najib. The Taliban will scatter the remnants of the Americans and arrange a bloodbath for their own. And then, under the banner of Al Qaeda, they will establish their caliphate in the north in Central Asia and the BV. One thing is necessary, on the old borders of the USSR, give them "the last and decisive" they will retreat, and then shoot them. They do not like "wall to wall", they will surreptitiously jump. Somehow it should be.
    1. Captain Vrungel
      Captain Vrungel 24 June 2013 09: 05
      +1
      Who will let you to the old borders. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan? And Kazakhstan will not miss. It is necessary to strengthen the Frontiers on its territory. Finding ours in Tajikistan, where they are already strangers behind the fence of the unit. What is holding there? But do not need the Taliban. The border there has long been transparent. Or is someone interested in emeralds and the source of the poppy?
      1. KG_patriot_last
        KG_patriot_last 24 June 2013 21: 59
        +1
        you are wrong, skip. With any great rustle, Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic will be for Russia. I hope Kazakhstan too.
    2. avt
      avt 24 June 2013 12: 56
      +1
      Quote: albai
      There, under the Soviet Union, there were very strict rules of life in Islam. I remember from an Afghan who worked on a piece of field asked, they say, after all, it’s already people's power, why can’t you take all the land? In response, they say, Allah gave him this piece and the rest of the land to the rich, and he does not have the right to take away his land. But in fact, Pashtun nomads are very militant people.

      good A very good example! But our smart people offered to sell the selected land of the people's power, for at least one dirham, but to sell, and then he will break anything for his piece. BUT, again they decided how to do it in 17m and miscalculated.
  12. individual
    individual 24 June 2013 08: 49
    +2
    The USSR, which fought in Afghanistan armed with the whole world in the 80s and lost 15 people.
    How many pin * wasps would die if Russia supplied the Taliban with anti-tank grenade launchers and MANPADS?
  13. ale-x
    ale-x 24 June 2013 09: 17
    +1
    This country is doomed to constant chaos. There will never be peace in it. There is no idea and leader who could unite the peoples of Afghanistan. The idea can only be radical Islam that carries the rest of the world, but this will be the reason for a new war. Vicious circle.
  14. kind
    kind 24 June 2013 10: 08
    0
    The picture at the beginning of the article is cool - "Around the Taliban"! Probably it raises the mood for mattresses!
  15. Vtel
    Vtel 24 June 2013 11: 10
    0
    The problem, however, is that the Taliban have not existed in their usual form for a long time. The movement was formed with the direct participation of Pakistan to solve very specific geopolitical problems.

    But this is a song and the words in it are unpleasant for both the Yankees and Israel - Pakistan is a nuclear country. Today, Pakistan is still sluhay Yankov, but tomorrow may be Taliban republic with nuclear fuse. And who will resolve the situation, again the kosher ones will try to do it with our hands, which has happened more than once.
  16. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 24 June 2013 12: 32
    +2
    What is Afghanistan in general? How do Afghans make a living? Firstly, these are caravan trails, a rather busy transport hub by the standards of the mountains. That is, caravan men and bandits shaking caravans. Secondly, opium. This is a drug country from such ancient times that it’s scary to think. Deep before our era it was already so. All stories about "Afghan agriculture" are ridiculous. Skinny flocks of sheep and that's it. All other food was delivered to Afghanistan for millennia by caravans in exchange for nonsense.
    Now it turned out that there are huge reserves of minerals. But it is almost impossible to get them, there is no one in the first place and you cannot bring anyone in the second place. Because the caravan bandits and drug bandits will impose a growing "tax" on the loot every hour.
    In modern history, two attempts have been made to change the situation. At first, the USSR tried to build a normal country there. Alas, it was worth showing the residents there a couple of dollars - and they killed their benefactors, even realizing how much was being done for them. Well done and done, and two dollars is two dollars. A bandit is not organically able to think about the future or take care of someone other than himself. The interests of the country, the happiness of children, patriotism ... all this is zero for a bandit. Because there is only him, and he will be killed soon. The thug will certainly be killed, no matter how cool he is, and the thug knows this, it determines his whole life. So the USSR lost.
    The second attempt is the Taliban. The author of the article does not bother to understand anything, so the article is nonsense in this part. Taliban - students of religious schools, madrassas. And for some small moment, they really stopped the violence on the land that has been shed for thousands of years. I am sure they sincerely wanted to do something, all the more a fresh example - the Shuravi almost turned their land to life! Alas, the mountains are a bare place. Their attempt instantly killed a simple and banal hunger, for they did not stand a huge country with its agriculture. So dope triumphantly returned.
    They did not want us there, there is nothing for us to meditate on anymore. Enough of our blood ... In my opinion, we must take engineering and military measures to reduce drug trafficking. That is - cut down mountain trails! We have enough ammunition with an expiring shelf life, so we need to unload them there in hundreds of tons. Of course, genetically modified hemp already exists, which can easily displace the natural. At the same time, there is no milligram of dope in the modifier. To bring out exactly the same poppy is not a task, it can be done in a year. But this will lead to a war with the world drug mafia, in which the United States also has small, powerless sixes. In my opinion, we are not yet ready for such a war. But to level the mountains - it’s possible ....
  17. KG_patriot_last
    KG_patriot_last 24 June 2013 12: 57
    +2
    The problem of the apathy of the troops of Afghanistan can be solved only in one way: fragmentation of the country on a national basis. Afghanistan is an artificial country. The United States came there to strengthen central power and drug trafficking, and not solve the problems of terrorism ... At the same time, get Iraq ...

    And the problem of Afghanistan (and the apathy of their troops) is solved by understanding their problems with the central government:
    1) this country is multinational:
    - Khazars (central part), numerous, passive
    - Pashtuns, numerous, active
    - Tajiks (northern part of the adjoining TR), a large number, active-passive (active towards TR, passive towards IRA)
    - Uzbeks (northern part adjacent to UzR), numerous, active
    - Balochi (southern part of the adjacent Iran), small, passive, but a lot of lands / mountains)

    2) this country is mountainous, with claims to neighbors

    3) central power in Afghanistan is impossible, due to the lack of tolerance of the peoples living in it to each other
    - in the time of the Shah there were problems with this (as a result, they executed him)
    - during the USSR there were problems with this (as a result, they executed)
    - during the Taliban there were problems with this (as a result, the war of the north and the south)
    - in the days of the USA there are problems with this (as a result, dissatisfied will come again)

    (continued further)
  18. KG_patriot_last
    KG_patriot_last 24 June 2013 13: 02
    0
    Why is this not happening? Yes, because Pakistan, Iran, China, Uzbekistan and even the United States with Russia are profitably trying to centralize power so that the peoples living in it have no claims to their territories! Hence the maintenance of chaos in this country.
    1) The Pashtuns have claims against Pakistan and Iran, since part of their country (not state) and peoples are included in them
    2) Balochis have claims to Pakistan and Iran, since part of their country (not state) and peoples are included in them
    3) Tajiks have claims against Tajikistan, since some of their peoples are included in them
    4) Uzbeks have claims to Uzbekistan, as part of their peoples are included in them
    5) The only people with state thinking are the Hazaras (which is proved by their presence in the current government)
  19. KG_patriot_last
    KG_patriot_last 24 June 2013 13: 24
    +1
    And the Taliban could offer a common ideology for Afghanistan! They understood that for the country to stop the internecine strife a common idea was needed! The fact that the peoples who inhabit it unite, as I wrote above in a post: unites their claims to the neighbors! Hence the popularity of the Taliban with their caliphate. They stopped the feud and transferred hostility to neighbors, to foreign forces.

    Now think about how to defeat the Taliban. It is not necessary to unite the central government, but to disunite and redraw everything. Or establish new national republics. Or let Iran, India and China redraw this part of the world. In general, you need to think differently ..
  20. VkadimirEfimov1942
    VkadimirEfimov1942 24 June 2013 17: 01
    0
    Now the NATO members with their "hangers-on" do not know how to leave Afghanistan while preserving their identity. Something similar to a Russian joke: "-... I caught a bear! -So bring him here! -He won't let me in ..."
  21. knn54
    knn54 24 June 2013 18: 47
    0
    For 12 years, the "democrats" have corrupted the imperious upper classes and embittered the uneducated lower classes.
    Something reminds, isn't it ...
  22. antibanukurayza
    antibanukurayza 24 June 2013 19: 07
    +2
    For many, Afghanistan is a distant country that is at war all the time. Only a separate group of sober-minded people understand that Afghanistan is now slowly turning into an instrument of the United States and NATO against the CIS countries and, first of all, against the countries of Central Asia. The United States understands that its main rival and enemy Russia fears for its southern borders, since the main extremism in the Caucasus goes through Afghanistan. And in Kazakhstan, all terrorists are somehow connected with Afghanistan. Therefore, it is necessary to develop specific measures to counter these US weapons. The Americans want to flood Russia with drugs so much so that in 10 years there will be no normal healthy physical conscript in the country, in fact they are implementing a long-term strategic plan to destroy human reserves. It is also. also affects the Central Asian region. It is necessary to toughen punishments for all crimes related to drugs, and if the real state of affairs requires it, the death penalty. Officials for the patronage of the hucksters and the connection with drugs - the death penalty. Rather than spraying finances on a multitude of counter-narcotics agencies and getting "zilch", create a mobile, deeply conspiratorial and modernly equipped unit with direct subordination to the First and methodically identify, and where physically eliminate, the rotting head of a fish. 2014 is just around the corner, and Afghan is just around the corner ...
    1. Black
      Black 24 June 2013 19: 52
      0
      Quote: antibanukuraza
      Only a separate group of sober-minded people understand that Afghanistan is slowly turning into an instrument of the USA and NATO against the CIS countries and, first of all, to the countries of Central Asia.


      Well, this group of reasonably thinking is not so small. You have to be narrow-minded so as not to understand that the United States has fulfilled its goals when introducing troops into the region. They have turned the drug threat into a really more real threat than outright war. "Fool", a state machine that does not want truly radical measures to combat, destroy confidently and much faster than any other war.
      The army of the so-called. The "irreconcilable" will create a permanent hotbed of tension in the region.
      Only the joint efforts of neighbors at the political will of States are able to reverse the situation.