Military Review

China on the verge of a powerful crisis

44

Less than five years after the crisis in the United States, another leading power, China, faced similar problems.


No sooner had the world economy recovered from the effects of the mortgage crisis in America, but the bubble was already inflating at the other end of the earth. Like the US on the eve of the largest financial crisis in stories, China has faced three dangerous problems: rapidly growing real estate prices, the indiscriminate distribution of loans and an uncontrollable shadow banking system, increasingly resembling a pyramid. In the coming years, the authorities of the Middle Kingdom will have to make serious sacrifices. After all, to limit the freedom of the "gray" financiers, who by activity have already successfully compete with traditional banks, is to abandon the rapid growth of the economy. Not to do this is to repeat the American script. Whatever decision the Communist Party makes, its consequences will affect the whole world.

Nowhere to take

Traditional bank loans are still the main source of financing the real sector of the Chinese economy, but other channels are gaining popularity at a much higher rate. So, according to S & P, starting from 2010, the annual dynamics of growth in lending volumes in the shadow banking system in the PRC is about 34%. At the same time, the volume of loans issued by ordinary banks increased only by 14%. The reason for this imbalance is prosaic: because of Beijing’s tight monetary policy, 97% of 42 million small and medium-sized businesses, according to Bloomberg, simply do not have access to bank loans.

Trying to slow down inflation, local regulators are forced to limit not only the work of the printing money machine, but also credit activity. The authorities are tightening reserve requirements for banks in order to combat the deteriorating quality of loan portfolios. That is why it is almost impossible to get a loan to small and medium businesses - such enterprises are cut off at the application consideration stage. This forces them to borrow in the gray market and pay up to 30% per annum, although the standard bank loan rate rarely exceeds 7%. As a result, now, according to GF Securities estimates, the volume of the shadow banking sector in China reaches 4,8 trillion dollars, that is, about 57% of the country's GDP, about four times more than in the 2008 year.

Know the enemy in person

Shadow banking is a fairly common phenomenon in the world. But financial markets in different countries are at different stages of development. Legislation is also different, which means loopholes in it. Therefore, shadow banking has a thousand faces, but its overall definition is quite simple. According to the International Financial Stability Board (FSB), under the shadow banking refers to any credit relations with the participation of structures outside the official banking system. Modern shadow banking in China is not an underground office for issuing expensive public loans, as in the beginning of 2000's. Now the main players in this market - trusts and broker companies - have quite legal status and, by lending to the representatives of the real sector, are major participants in the country's financial system. According to the Financial Times (FT) calculations, their own assets exceed 1,1 trillion dollars - only banks have big assets.

The situation in the PRC increasingly resembles a decade-old American Wall Street with its dubious financial instruments without adequate support and supervision from regulators. “Products offered in this market lack transparency, they are based on high-risk investments and are outside the legislative field. Such a combination can create a domino effect, ”says Dun Tao, chief economist for Asia at Credit Suisse. In fact, the only difference between the Chinese shadow banking system and Western models (for example, the American one) is the relative simplicity of the schemes. Instead of complex structured products produced through special subsidiaries SPV and SIV, here are applied direct borrowing schemes through ordinary loans. Local banks do not create subsidiaries to clean up their own balance sheets, as happened in the United States before the mortgage crisis. Instead, they use existing trusts, acting as a kind of intermediaries between investors and borrowers for a certain percentage.

Banks at the same time

Under the conditions of rigid dictates of interest rates by the monetary authorities, banks became the main source of financing of the shadow credit sector. Attracting investors with higher rates in comparison with the yield on bank deposits, they managed to create a whole line of so-called Wealth Management Products (WMP), the funds from the sale of which are subsequently invested in gray funds. For investors, it is much more profitable than ordinary deposits: WMP bring their owners about 6% per annum. Moreover, the funds lend money to businesses already under 20-30% per annum.

These off-balance sheet products have gained enormous popularity: according to estimates by the Chinese agency CNBenefit, by the end of last year, the volume of WMP issued amounted to about 3,2 trillion dollars. According to a study by the People’s Bank of China, conducted in Wenzhou City District (Zhejiang Province), where about 9 million people live, up to 2011% of the population and up to 90% of companies participated in gray lending schemes in 60. At the same time, courts of different instances already consider claims for the bankruptcy of such borrowers in the amount of 7,5 billion dollars - in 6 times more than a year earlier.

Experts are particularly concerned about the opacity of WMP: buyers often have no idea what their money is spent on and do not realize the risks. A study of FT, which studied about 50 WMP Chinese banks, showed that only a few of them were able to explain to a potential investor where the funds would be invested. “No one really knows where and on the security of which assets hundreds of billions of dollars are invested. Often, collateral for such loans are revalued assets in risky projects that are not capable of generating sufficient cash flows to pay off debts, ”says Mark Williams, senior Asian economist at Capital Economics.

Additional risks for the national banking system also include the very scheme for raising and reinvesting funds within the framework of WMP. According to CNBenefit experts, over 60% WMP in 2012-m had a maturity of three months, while the fund lends money for at least a year. Sometimes with long delays in repayment of debt, credit institutions are forced to use the funds of new depositors in order to pay off old customers. “From a fundamental point of view, such schemes are a financial pyramid,” says Xiao Gang, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of China. “Music will stop playing as soon as investors lose confidence in these structures.”

Two years to think

So, in the financial sector of China, the smell of fried. This smell is already felt on both sides of the ocean. For foreign investors, the parallels between Chinese shadow loans and the ill-fated pyramid of the American mortgage are obvious. “The sharp increase in shadow banking in China has an alarming resemblance to the subprime mortgage market in the United States, where the 2007-2008 crisis began,” said George Soros, speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia. - Given the experience of the United States, the authorities of the PRC have a couple more years to establish control over this market. Success here is extremely important, not only for China, but for the whole world. " According to the investment guru, household savings will no longer be able to sustain rapid economic growth in the country. And this means that the Celestial will have to restore order in the market of gray loans in the face of slowing growth in national GDP.

The danger is also recognized in Beijing. As stated by the leaders of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), they intend to establish tight control over the issue of WMP, most of which are not reflected in the balance sheets of banks. We are talking about reducing the issue of WMP, the amount of which will be tied to the assets of the bank or the size of its loan portfolio. Restrictions will also affect investment objects: outside the classical bond market, banks will be able to invest no more than 35% of the funds received from the sale of WMP. At the same time, they will have to guarantee the repayment of these funds and report on investments not only to the authorities, but also to the clients.

Ride the dragon

But even such measures may not be enough. According to experts of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), one of the leading state research institutes of the People's Republic of China, the fight against shadow lending must be accelerated by loosening the nuts on the financial market. Citing rising liquidity risks (due to the difference in maturities of the WMP and the corresponding bank loans), analysts are urging the government to reduce control over bank rates and liberalize the debt market. As a result of the subsequent increase in interest rates on deposits (they now have negative returns with inflation), the population will lose risk appetite.

However, in the conditions of the most severe fight against inflation with the help of total control over the volumes of crediting of the economy, such liberal reforms are likely to be put on hold. A certain neglect of systemic financial risks in favor of economic prosperity can indeed be justified, believes Andrew Milligan, chief strategist at Standard Life Investments. “I don’t think it is worth worrying about this: Beijing is able to control the situation. At least for now, ”he says. Too tempting to use shadow banking as one of the tools to stimulate the economy, whose growth has slipped to the worst figure in the last 13 years. “Most likely, regulators will seek to gain complete control over the shadow banking system, rather than eliminate it as a phenomenon, because it still contributes to the development of the real economy,” predicts CASS vice president Professor Li Yang. Thus, instead of killing the dragon, the Chinese authorities will try to ride it. However, the example of America proves that it is important not only to know when to jump off the dragon, but also to have the political will to do so.
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  1. Nevsky
    Nevsky 11 June 2013 15: 55 New
    +3
    Hmm ...., in China their problems are higher than the roof, they have already recognized that this is not why the paths have gone. They reoriented the entire economy for export, but did not develop the domestic market. As a result, they are completely dependent on exports. Due to the crisis, exports are shrinking, revenues are falling, but there is no domestic demand. As one of the Chinese experts at the economic forum in Astana said: “Our peasant would be glad to buy an iPhone, but he has no money for it. Of course, we can give him a loan, but he will not return it ”))
    1. Komodo
      Komodo 11 June 2013 16: 03 New
      +1
      On top of that, a 3D printer is coming soon ...
      And the khan of Chinese industry.
      All the small things that China is now releasing, due to the use of
      cheap labor will be printed on the printer, the cost of work
      which is significantly lower.
      1. UFO
        UFO 11 June 2013 16: 06 New
        +4
        This is what scares! Do you know the universal "solution" to all problems? The reasons for all wars are economic! belay
        1. Dimka off
          Dimka off 11 June 2013 16: 12 New
          +7
          also wanted to write a similar comment. The crisis is in America and in China and in Europe. The way out is war.
          1. zvereok
            zvereok 11 June 2013 17: 59 New
            +2
            Quote: Dimka off
            also wanted to write a similar comment. The crisis is in America and in China and in Europe. The way out is war.


            And therefore they will fight with those who do not have a crisis, i.e. with us? Or among themselves? I like the second option more.
          2. FC SKIF
            FC SKIF 11 June 2013 21: 12 New
            0
            Something once a week, a new exercise - checking the combat readiness of the troops. Looks like they got distinct signals from there. I would not want all the major world players to solve their problems at the expense of Russia.
        2. Hunghuz
          Hunghuz 12 June 2013 07: 39 New
          0
          hi I think that anyone gesheft pabidit ......... ??? otherwise why fight?
      2. fzr1000
        fzr1000 11 June 2013 16: 09 New
        +3
        Panties, socks, sneakers and other clothes, is also a 3D printer? And the products that are grown in China too? And the electronics? Bury China Early.
        BUT, China also has problems, so we wait, sir, and stock up on popcorn.
        1. Komodo
          Komodo 11 June 2013 16: 20 New
          +2
          Quote: fzr1000
          Panties, socks, sneakers and other clothes, is also a 3D printer? And the products that are grown in China too? And the electronics?

          Exactly.
          Clothing, food, weapons, cars, houses, etc.
          1. Komodo
            Komodo 11 June 2013 16: 24 New
            +2

            The locomotive of the new production revolution.
            1. Guun
              Guun 11 June 2013 17: 07 New
              +2
              Well, what can I add. Everything is already clear - massive 3D printers will be in China here and don’t go to a fortuneteller, the price for it will be several times cheaper, the resources for it will also be cheaper at times (doing all this in the West will be unprofitable as always - the Chinese know a lot about displace all products with your product). What conclusion? China will not lose anything. Naive people will believe that with the advent of the 3D printer, China will go nowhere. Quality make up with horrific speed.
              1. Komodo
                Komodo 11 June 2013 18: 00 New
                0
                Quote: Guun
                Naive people will believe that with the advent of the 3D printer, China will go nowhere. Quality make up with horrific speed.

                If you can print something yourself, then why bring it from China?
                Fare. Fewer people employed in production, and what will the rest do? A huge number of unemployed will appear in China.
                There is also bad news for Russia, the need for energy will decrease.
                Although of course these are just predictions.
                1. Guun
                  Guun 11 June 2013 18: 23 New
                  +1
                  I repeat.
                  massive 3D printers will be in China here and don’t go to a fortuneteller, the price for it will be much cheaper, the resources for it will also be cheaper at times (doing all this in the West will be unprofitable as always - the Chinese know a lot about crowding out all products with their goods )
                  1. Komodo
                    Komodo 11 June 2013 18: 46 New
                    0
                    Quote: Guun
                    massive 3D printers will be in China here and don’t go to a fortuneteller, the price for it will be much cheaper, the resources for it will also be cheaper at times (doing all this in the West will be unprofitable as always - the Chinese know a lot about crowding out all products with their goods )

                    For example: You drive into an empty apartment. Turn on the printer, and print what you need. Suppose a regular mug that you can print yourself, if delivered from China, will cost many times more. Then why buy it in China?
                    Another thing is the resource base for the press, this is the concern of the state. But with minerals, thank God, everything is fine.
                    1. Gluxar_
                      Gluxar_ 12 June 2013 02: 30 New
                      0
                      Quote: Komodo
                      For example: You drive into an empty apartment. Turn on the printer, and print what you need. Suppose a regular mug that you can print yourself, if delivered from China, will cost many times more. Then why buy it in China? Another thing is the resource base for the press, this is the state’s concern. But with minerals, thank God, everything is fine.

                      Do you understand that the printer does not print out of thin air? To print a glass, you have to wait 40 years. But you can print a chair. Hours for 30. And spend 4 kilowatts of energy, thousands of materials so 9000. Since you need a special polymer mass, which hardens under certain conditions, and melts at not very high temperatures. The printer itself has amortization costs, as there are many high-tech parts that the printer itself will not be able to produce. And all these details rub, move and heat up. As a result, you will create a chair worth 9-10 tr. with low performance. That is, you can’t get into it normally. And your neighbor will go to the nearest ikea and buy a chair for 240 rubles and will be happy. Well, you’ll spend 30 rubles on gas, but you’ll spend even more time on the assembly and delivery of the printer.
                2. fzr1000
                  fzr1000 11 June 2013 18: 30 New
                  0
                  And what gasoline and kerosene will pour from the printer too? And the polymers that printers use are coming from? I think it’s too early to creep into the cemetery.
                3. Gluxar_
                  Gluxar_ 12 June 2013 02: 23 New
                  0
                  Quote: Komodo
                  If you can print something yourself, then why bring it from China? Transportation costs. Fewer people employed in production, and what will the rest do? In China, there will be a huge number of unemployed. There is also bad news for Russia, the need for energy will decrease. Although, of course, these are just forecasts.

                  To create a plastic model by stamping, in relation to 3c printing technology, 127 times less energy is needed.
              2. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 12 June 2013 02: 22 New
                0
                Quote: Guun
                Well, what can I add. Everything is already clear - massive 3D printers will be in China here and don’t go to a fortuneteller, the price for it will be several times cheaper, the resources for it will also be cheaper at times (doing all this in the West will be unprofitable as always - the Chinese know a lot about displace all products with your product). What conclusion? China will not lose anything. Naive people will believe that with the advent of the 3D printer, China will go nowhere. Quality make up with horrific speed.

                China has its own problems, one ecology is worth it. What will remain unchanged in the world for the next 50 years is that everyone will need energy and water with food. So compatriots think where to go better and where to stay.
            2. zvereok
              zvereok 11 June 2013 18: 12 New
              0
              You do not know, but does Skolkovo have anything to do with this?
            3. GELEZNII_KAPUT
              GELEZNII_KAPUT 11 June 2013 18: 15 New
              +1
              hmm ... at one time I only read about it in science fiction books! good
            4. Gluxar_
              Gluxar_ 12 June 2013 02: 20 New
              0
              Quote: Komodo
              The locomotive of the new production revolution.

              Revolution in drying glue? Do you understand how much it costs to use such a device and its maintenance? And he can only create plastic toys. Everything else is a fantasy for the example of the fifth element. There, too, a 3D printer created chicken from powder. Such a printer will not be able to print a frying pan. Everything rests on the physical properties of matter. In accelerators, you can create gold and antimatter from oxygen, but the cost is tens of thousands of times more expensive than its natural production. You cannot create a medicine; you cannot create an object with a complex structure. It’s the same as taking a plastic bottle and setting it on fire over a bonfire, and then dropping a soldier into it with droplets. So in the mid-80s, I was doing work on my 3D printer.
              1. Komodo
                Komodo 12 June 2013 04: 41 New
                0
                Quote: Gluxar_
                So in the mid-80s, I was doing work on my 3D printer.

                Admittedly not a specialist in this matter. He was engaged in the search for new construction technologies. When in construction it will be possible to print a house, not all of course most of it, it really will be a breakthrough. And it will be really beneficial. What do you think?
                1. Gluxar_
                  Gluxar_ 12 June 2013 12: 40 New
                  0
                  Quote: Komodo
                  Admittedly not a specialist in this matter. He was engaged in the search for new construction technologies. When in construction it will be possible to print a house, not all of course most of it, it really will be a breakthrough. And it will be really beneficial. What do you think?

                  It is possible, but very doubtful. Understand that the localization of production did not occur on its own, but for economic reasons. Once, each person was his own creator, but he didn’t succeed in creating. And only when specialization appeared and localized production did progress go up.
                  The same is true for today's technology. The fact that the printer can print / paste the house is cool, but not practical and expensive. It is much more efficient to create modular designs with robotic assembly. However, this is not practical and too expensive. Therefore, it is not applied now. If you are interested in building technologies, you may have heard of attempts in the United States to build model houses using robotics. The condition was a large number of houses in a separate area, the houses are typical "stamped" with subsequent decoration by people. In the end, even under such conditions, the project failed as insolvent. The manual labor of people will always be in demand.
                  The same Chinese are building a house without a 3D printer in 196 hours with interior decoration.
                  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jg5DhWfvhy0
                  During this time, I can’t even assemble an industrial 3D printer at the facility, protect it from environmental influences ... in total, I can list for a long time.

                  I understand where you get the information from articles like "The US Navy will print something there on its ship." But what difference does it take to transport finished products or the same stockpiles of substances along with containers for their storage, power plants and the factory itself. And do not forget that objects dripped with a 3D printer have the most serious limitations.
          2. fzr1000
            fzr1000 11 June 2013 18: 17 New
            -1
            And how to print ALL the components of at least the same mobile phone or car? But the main thing is to collect all this. Only pens will be collected. Even in Japan, the share of robots in the automotive industry is 35%. The rest is handles. And then, and who will service these 3 D printers? Aliens? Yes, the same Chinese. The point is not to reduce the cost of production, but that it is not needed already in such a volume. And give corporations a profit. That is the conflict.
          3. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 12 June 2013 02: 13 New
            0
            Quote: Komodo
            Namely, clothes, food, weapons, cars, houses, etc.

            If you write such nonsense, then you are just an amateur in this matter. 3D printing is the usual gluing of plastic or powder mixtures. The structural characteristics of such objects are negligible and are applicable only in modeling and prototyping. Technology itself is as old as the world; in fact, it is the development of 19th-century machine production. There will be no revolution, just because this technology has been used for the last 30 years in the production of microelectronics. The difference is that the development of modern computer technology has allowed it to be applied locally to almost everyone. Just as it happened at the time with computers and printers. Which today cost 3-5 tr. and at one time the floor of the institute was occupied by one computer.
            However, the application is the creation of mock-ups and plastic toys from sticky polymers, at a cost price hundreds of times more expensive than those made in China and brought from there.
        2. Atlon
          Atlon 11 June 2013 17: 26 New
          +1
          Quote: fzr1000
          Panties, socks, sneakers and other clothes, is also a 3D printer? And the products that are grown in China too? And the electronics? Bury China Early.

          Recently, the news was infa. In the USA, they printed on a 3D printer: pasta, cookies, chips, candies. They say this is just the beginning. In the future, such printers will be in every kitchen. Chemistry, of course, but quite edible! And what is not chemistry now?
          1. fzr1000
            fzr1000 11 June 2013 18: 10 New
            +2
            What is growing in his garden.
            Will a 3D printer print a woman too?
            1. Komodo
              Komodo 11 June 2013 18: 21 New
              0
              Quote: fzr1000
              Will a 3D printer print a woman too?

              Silicone laughing!
              Notice, by INDIVIDUAL order.
              1. fzr1000
                fzr1000 11 June 2013 18: 29 New
                0
                Nah, I want a warm and lively. And so as not to arise once again!
            2. Atlon
              Atlon 11 June 2013 20: 00 New
              +1
              Quote: fzr1000
              What is growing in his garden.

              It's right! Only ... Do you have a garden? wink I have ... And in the USA it is FORBIDDEN to have a garden ... Draw your own conclusions.
              1. fzr1000
                fzr1000 11 June 2013 23: 14 New
                -1
                The garden was, is and will be. And let the US understand it themselves.
          2. Harakternik
            Harakternik 11 June 2013 23: 40 New
            0
            The news will be if Russian scientists print a metallurgical tank T3 on a 90D printer, this will be a chip soldier
          3. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 12 June 2013 02: 35 New
            0
            Quote: Atlon
            Recently, the news was infa. In the USA, they printed on a 3D printer: pasta, cookies, chips, candies. They say this is just the beginning. In the future, such printers will be in every kitchen. Chemistry, of course, but quite edible! And what is not chemistry now?

            Such printers can only be effective in simulation. When you need a full-size or pre-production scale of a pre-production product. Then it is advantageous to relatively quickly create a layout and turn it in your hands, change what you didn’t like and start up in normal production. Today, this technology is widely used in microelectronics, but there it has been used for 40 years or even more.
            The essence of the idea itself is old and simple. You squeeze out an amorphous substance and it hardens in other conditions than it is stored. On top of the frozen one more substance is squeezed out. That's all. I think any person will understand the limited application of such technology in a boot at its costs.
        3. nickname 1 and 2
          nickname 1 and 2 11 June 2013 19: 31 New
          0
          Briefs without socks and without sneakers, etc. shmut!

          Quote: fzr1000
          Bury China Early.


          And that's right! They DO NOT HAVE A LABEL! As they decide, so will their people!

          Yesterday, the best economists in the world prophesied China's 1st place in the world, today they are going to bury.

          You’re not lying!
          The Chinese V.I. Chapaev is honored!
          1. fzr1000
            fzr1000 11 June 2013 23: 33 New
            -1
            The same Khazin did not prophesy.
        4. FC SKIF
          FC SKIF 11 June 2013 21: 17 New
          +1
          Great danger for China are "suddenly appeared" bacilli, striking on ethnic and racial grounds.
      3. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 12 June 2013 02: 07 New
        0
        Quote: Komodo
        In addition to all this, a 3D printer will come soon ... And the khan of Chinese industry. All the small things that China is now producing, due to the use of cheap labor, they will print on a printer, the cost of which is much lower.

        The fantasies of our compatriots have no chapel.
        China really has a lot of problems, but definitely not the competition of 3D printers. By the way, this is the technology of the early 50s, then it just did not go because of unprofitability. And regarding microelectronics, all microchips are "printed" from the first days.
        It’s just that today the crisis of capitalism will be possible to get out of it only after a general collapse and the emergence of new technology. Which will raise the entire market. So it was with looms, so it was with a steam engine, so it was with ICE, the same thing with computer technology.
        However, the West is trying to resist the collapse, and here it is issuing "new revolutionary technologies" by taking them from dusty shelves.

        As for China, it has much more problems than just shadow banking. The article is typical ordering, although it still has a common opinion. however, analytics is missing. You can not compare the socio-economic systems of the United States and China, they are completely different. And in the event of the collapse of shadow banking, only a small part of the “entrepreneurs” in Chinese society will be hit. Most of the population does not participate in these schemes and lives on a salary. The basis of the economy is large enterprises, not small businesses. So the effect will be miserable, the collapse of the next peramide, moreover, local. The government will easily be able to replace the microfinance system with its institutions and the issue of inflation will not be as acute as it is written in the article.
        US problems did not arise due to the collapse of mortgage securities, the collapse was only a consequence of the trade deficit. The first failure occurred in 2001 during the collapse of the dotcoms. And the collapse itself occurred due to the entry into the market of a new euro currency. Then, for the first time, an alternative to the dollar appeared and the world trade market reacted to this. The dollar was already "empty" already, and all because of the togre deficit. The United States produced only paper, but not goods. While there was no alternative, then all countries were forced to buy the only goods produced in the USA in order to exchange real goods among themselves.
        But as soon as the alternative appeared, the collapse of the US financial system began. Empty money was supposed to settle somewhere and show the whole world that the United States is still strong. They settled in IT and dotcoms, but immediately brought down this market. Then they began to translate into mortgage securities. They thought that such a huge real estate market could digest them for decades. However, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are too expensive. As a result, the money issue became uncontrolled, and the part that was sent to the "real economy" to hide and cover military spending quickly oversaturated the market. And in 2008, the mortgage pyramid collapsed. Emission, contrary to all, has increased, and since 2009, the "shale revolution" has become the receiver of all this muculature.
        However, already in 2011, a number of companies declared their insolvency in the field of shale gas production, however, pumping into shale oil also began right away ... What is happening today is also obvious to everyone. This circus cannot endlessly continue, and so the sequestration has already lighthouse. it's only the beginning...
    2. Alexander_
      Alexander_ 11 June 2013 18: 37 New
      0
      “Of course, we can give him credit” - They will not take it, we will force it, they will not give it back to Kalam, and they will take away the housing. Very reminiscent of Russia, with the same desire of the authorities to populate the entire population on loans.
  2. Sergey_K
    Sergey_K 11 June 2013 16: 07 New
    +3
    As I understand it, the United States has already rotted, well, we begin to wait for China to rot. China, shooting corrupt officials entered the top three leading countries of the world!
  3. Odysseus
    Odysseus 11 June 2013 16: 19 New
    +7
    Not a connoisseur of "shadow banking", but so far there are no special problems in the PRC economy in the real sector. Domestic consumption is also growing at a double-digit pace.
  4. Manager
    Manager 11 June 2013 16: 20 New
    +4
    Well, when I do not believe it! In order for ChinaY to fall into the crisis, it is necessary to destroy the entire industry, etc. with vigorous strikes, so that radiation does not allow the plants to be restored. And then they’ll come up with something.
    China is a leader, and will be long. It has just begun to develop, so to speak.
    1. Odysseus
      Odysseus 11 June 2013 16: 40 New
      +6
      Quote: Manager
      It has just begun to develop, so to speak.

      Today, the spacecraft was launched. Production of cars in 5 months, over 9 million belay
      Well and so, yes, the crisis smile
    2. fzr1000
      fzr1000 11 June 2013 23: 32 New
      -1
      China will begin to bend when world demand for its services begins to bend. There will be a temporary improvement by stimulating domestic demand, but it will only be a temporary improvement. When people learn not to “get involved” in advertisements in which they are promised a new smartphone / computer / car that are 8 cores different from last year’s / 0,5 kg lighter / has a 10-speed automatic gearbox and will spend money on more useful and really needed at that moment things for themselves, or when ordinary people just won’t be up to it, but the question will be - to dress, eat and keep warm in the house (negative development of events), China will either have to tighten its belt, together with trans-national corporations ( which is unlikely), or retraining for the production of more popular products at that time in the world, for example, high-quality, but cheap weapons. Maybe China will have time to offer the world its other "commodity" -yuan. Time will tell.
  5. AK-47
    AK-47 11 June 2013 16: 34 New
    +3
    But the chief economist of the Department of Economic Forecasting of the State Information Center of China, Zhu Baolyan, says: “do not wait” ”In 2013, new ideas for the future economic and social development of China, approved at the 18th Congress of the Central Committee of the CPC, will give a new impetus to the implementation of reform and opening up policies and accelerated development. Next year, one can also expect the effectiveness of a number of measures aimed at stabilizing growth, which in turn will contribute to rapid and stable growth. In 2013, according to forecasts, it will be about 8%»
    1. Guun
      Guun 11 June 2013 17: 02 New
      +1
      There is no doubt about that. The crisis in China? No, I have not heard.
  6. Pacifist
    Pacifist 11 June 2013 16: 36 New
    +6
    This is custom-made material of the next scribbler issuing the desired by the owners, as valid. If what was happening in China happened in the USA and the EU ... the word crisis would be used only in relation to psychology ....
  7. MG42
    MG42 11 June 2013 17: 02 New
    +5
    Put a minus article. Let the author look at the size of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the PRC, the structure of the economy, Western companies, world brands transferred their production there because of the cheap slave. strength, and this is important in the structure of production costs. Made in China = this is familiar and no longer scary, sometimes in comp. components, for example, it is difficult to find an alternative.
  8. Starover_Z
    Starover_Z 11 June 2013 17: 12 New
    0
    Quote: Komodo
    On top of that, a 3D printer is coming soon ...
    And the khan of Chinese industry.
    All the small things that China is now releasing, due to the use of
    cheap labor will be printed on the printer, the cost of work
    which is significantly lower.

    Well, this will not happen soon - so far, the Chinese workforce is one of the cheapest in the world, and listing one object on a 3D + printer costs more than 500 cu
    And for starters, the Chinese will copy it and test it.
    1. Komodo
      Komodo 11 June 2013 19: 05 New
      0
      Cheap Chinese labor is already a myth. Now at construction sites 3 rubles. demand per day (Siberia). Our 000 work.
      At the dawn of mobile communications, I paid 7 (!) Rubles per minute of conversation.
      Now a penny. The same thing with 3D will be.
    2. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 12 June 2013 02: 37 New
      0
      Quote: Starover_Z
      Well, this will not happen soon - for now, the Chinese workforce is one of the cheapest in the world, and listing a single object on a 3D + printer costs more than 500 cu, and to begin with, the Chinese will copy it and try it out.




      The answer

      You do not need to copy it. Any student can collect with a certain preparation and programming skills. However, the functionality is small. sometimes it’s easier to cut from the blank. than to dig out of the printer.
  9. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 11 June 2013 17: 35 New
    0
    Quote: MG42
    Put a minus article. Let the author look at the size of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the PRC, the structure of the economy, Western companies, world brands transferred their production there because of the cheap slave. strength, and this is important in the structure of production costs. Made in China = this is familiar and no longer scary, sometimes in comp. components, for example, it is difficult to find an alternative.

    The Chinese are very hardworking and patient people .. the world crisis is only on hand .. A closed country, the majority of the population still live poorly .. they work for a bowl of rice ... And gold and currency reserves from such countries were taken more than once ... despite their belligerence .. I hope it will be Russia (like the USA we have cheap gold during World War II ..)
  10. APASUS
    APASUS 11 June 2013 17: 50 New
    0
    The crisis occurred on the unsecured derivatives market in the United States, and China is the factory of the world. If you do not twist the crisis, they will endure it easier! Chinese companies will simply change their master .......... and they will not consume less in the USA !!
  11. uzer 13
    uzer 13 11 June 2013 17: 57 New
    +3
    We have nothing to fear. We do not get out of these crises at all. Http://topwar.ru/uploads/images/2013/990/ydkl426.jpg
  12. cartridge
    cartridge 11 June 2013 18: 30 New
    0
    Rumors of the imminent death of the Chinese economy are greatly exaggerated. You can’t bury China so easily!
    1. kind
      kind 11 June 2013 19: 50 New
      0
      That's it! As long as there are more than a billion of them, and they can feed themselves, there will be no collapse.
  13. Grigorich 1962
    Grigorich 1962 11 June 2013 19: 04 New
    0
    The way out of such crises is imperialist, always War! ... But it’s not clear to anyone now who ..... time will tell ...... and who is the main competitor of CHINA ?? ... JAPAN, ALASIA, VIETNAM, INDONESIA .... and who is the main consumer? ... States, Iran, Russia ...... this parsley turns out ..... there is an endless crisis ahead .... ever since the whole world ...... and one war will not untie him. So imagine what we all plunged into with this self-regulating market economy.
  14. Grbear
    Grbear 11 June 2013 19: 13 New
    0
    The fact that China is too early to bury is a fact. Character traits:

    Rigid power vertical. Games in "democracy and the market" are allowed, but equally as much as it is beneficial to the state. If anything, then ... clap and no.

    Imposing your own rules. They allowed other companies to come with technology, and not just a screwdriver. The secret state program for the development of licensed technologies in private enterprises (licensed daughters) gives its results - they reproduce anything. And, transkompani worried about copyright. There is still no law, so direction.

    Analyze other people's mistakes. Starting from the Soviet experience, post-Soviet and ending with Euro-American. Over the past 30 years, there have been no gross errors in economic policy, neither external nor internal. Although, the devil will take them apart. They all look alike lol .
  15. individual
    individual 11 June 2013 21: 31 New
    0
    All this is complicated.
    Economic prediction is not grateful.
    It is known that The United States owes China over $ 1 trillion. dollars excluding debts to Hong Kong and Macau. In total, this is 40% total US government debt. Debt to China is growing at the USA on 25% a year.
    China has not yet refused to buy up American assets.
  16. I think so
    I think so 12 June 2013 00: 18 New
    0
    The article is complete nonsense! There is nothing in common between China and the USA IN PRINCIPLE! A planned economy and a market mess have nothing to do! China, as it grew 8-10%, is growing, and the United States, as it was inflated by 1-2%, is being inflated (it does not grow, it prints money).
  17. Starover_Z
    Starover_Z 12 June 2013 01: 08 New
    0
    Quote: fzr1000
    China will begin to bend when world demand for its services begins to bend. There will be a temporary improvement by stimulating domestic demand, but it will only be a temporary improvement. .....
    China will either have to tighten its belt, together with transnational corporations (which is unlikely), or retrain for the release of more popular products at that time in the world, for example, high-quality, but cheap weapons. Maybe China will have time to offer the world its other "commodity" -yuan. Time will tell.


    We won’t wait! It turns out not just a planned economy, but with a good market bias.
    China doesn’t keep money in a small bucket, they buy up business assets all over the world, which means that in the future they will start managing foreign companies and will not allow blocking their goods - this is at least!
  18. jjj
    jjj 12 June 2013 01: 24 New
    0
    Let us recall one comparison: if China does not have breakfast once, then these products will be enough for Moscow to eat for a whole year. In China, such a huge scale. The prosperity of China concerns only a small, relatively small part of its population. The bulk of the people-and real poverty. They live the results and their fruits there. Well-established production can be directed towards improving the living standards of these very people. To do this, it is enough to redirect some of the funds into the hands of these people in order to stimulate demand. It would seem that under the leadership of a single center of power and political will - the CCP - this is being resolved quickly enough. But let us recall the experience of the USSR, when people had some money and the opportunity to move (under Khrushchev collective farmers were issued passports and the “qualification of settledness” was canceled at collective farms), where did all these villagers end up? Yes, tens of millions of people have moved to our cities. But hundreds of millions will travel in China. This migratory tsunami can disrupt so many relationships. That is why, as it is thought, China does not pedal domestic demand.
    On the other hand, the backwardness of the interior of China is a stabilizing factor. It will provide an opportunity to smooth out the negative, which to a large degree of probability will affect the Chinese economy. The take-off of economic power on previous conditions has already ended. And China has to rebuild. It is possible that at the cost of losing the communist principle.
  19. Skavron
    Skavron 12 June 2013 11: 36 New
    -1
    I haven’t read all the comments, so I can repeat myself ...
    China gradually, silently, occupies the African continent.
    All of West Africa. Chinese companies, real estate Chinese, buying up land, extracting resources for a penny, building enterprises, etc. etc. ... And then who will prevent them from declaring TU land their territory?
    China is a terrible quiet beast, doing its business quietly and not noticeably. But ... effective.
    So minus ... the article.
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    ZeleniyDuh 3 October 2013 16: 40 New
    0
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