Statistics - lies, programs - fiction
Alexey Nikolaevich, I want to start with the general issues of the labor market. For example, what is happening and will happen in the future with employment, with unemployment, with a structural supply-demand ratio, with labor productivity?
- First of all, we are fine with unemployment. We don't have it. This is an absolutely fully manipulated parameter. As for Moscow, it is not there in principle.
In Dagestan, huge, in Ingushetia ...
- There, too, is not so simple. We know that there practically 100% of the population votes for the current government - just all the passports were collected and voted. Similarly, there is a huge percentage of the population registered unemployed. Do they get unemployment benefits? Not. They get specific people in the office. Those, for the most part, who are registered as unemployed, have no idea about this. They have houses, they have plots, agriculture, they produce something there.
Like self-employed ...
- Yes, this is a separate issue. In addition, at least fifty percent of the unemployed who are registered at the place of residence in the southern republics, safely work for themselves in our northern regions. And even the employer pays taxes for them. That is, the problem of accounting, the problem of statistics. And there is no person in the Ministry of Labor, who would not know about it. Thus, the elites of the Caucasian republics are also sponsored. Additional money is sent there to make it quieter.
Farther. We have very large structural imbalances in the economy. And all the good wishes of "modernization", "innovation" in the bud are suppressed by the fact that all governors have the most severe instructions not to allow any unemployment in their entrusted territories. Because we are very afraid to see the 30 miners banging their helmets on the Gorbaty Bridge, as happened at the White House. Accordingly, there are old industrial enterprises, where the performance is below the baseboard or there is none at all - everything has rotted long ago and all must be fired long ago. And even the owners, about whom they say that “they don’t invest anything, they suck everything,” sometimes they would like - not always, but sometimes they would like - to invest in modernization. But what is the modernization of the old enterprise, where there are three, five, ten thousand people? This is a 90 percent staff reduction. As a result of modernization, labor productivity grows sharply, unnecessary unnecessary operations are removed. And 9 / 10 staff is released. And when a big businessman comes to the local governor and says: “I want to modernize” - the governor answers him: “I’m upgrading to you. Do not dare! At least one will be fired, you will get from me for the most not indulge. "
But, on the one hand, if we blame the fact that our army of slaves continues to be used instead of one excavator, and on the other ...
- On the other - we keep a huge number of workers assigned to the old plants. And we hope that they will calmly and safely die there. It’s just schizophrenia at the state level.
In fact, in such circumstances, for example, Margaret Thatcher announced retraining programs, people were relocated to other cities, where jobs ...
- We have retraining programs, there are relocation programs ...
So what is missing?
- There are employment support programs. Hundreds of billions of rubles are spent on them, even additional funds are allocated every year. This money, in my opinion, is not even stolen - it just burns, goes into the sand. After all, how is the money spent? The same entrepreneur comes in and says to the governor: “I’ll be upgraded or I’m finished - I’ll have to fire. We do not need anyone, do not buy our products. Will buy, I'll hire again. Otherwise, what should I do? Salary than pay? Have pity. Governor to him: “I'll fire you! See what we do. There is a government program to retrain people under threat of dismissal. Therefore, we do this: now you - on paper - are laying off three thousand people. We immediately conclude a contract, and they go at the expense of the state to learn the necessary professions. Locksmith retrain to turner, turner retrain to fitter. All this time they are - formally - are on training, get a scholarship, but go to the same workplace, so as not to get drunk. And then, after the money ran out, you feel better, the demand may have increased, you take them back. And we will give you a couple of billions of this. ” “It’s good,” says the entrepreneur, “even so.” And then we have a victorious report from the local employment service of approximately the following content: “At the enterprise of such and such, there were three thousand people under threat of dismissal. They were fired, trained by government programs. And after three months out of three thousand 2700 people were hired for the same enterprise. Hooray, we are great! We retrained. They had unclaimed specialties, now they are in demand. ” If you do not think about it, then what good fellows, yes? And if you think about it, then the total economic nonsense.
And how, in these circumstances, expect to increase productivity?
- None. We continue to spend hundreds of billions of rubles through employment centers for this nonsense. At the same time, the Ministry of Labor is not responsible for anything other than the allocation of money. Spending about the way I told you. Therefore, they did not even steal. It would be better to have them stolen, it would be better to do nothing at all. This is my position.
And if this money were not allocated, the results would be more?
- The result would be at least something. I do not know. History does not know the subjunctive mood.
That is, we need a completely different formulation of the question?
- Of course. We are fighting unemployment, and I have said many times: our fight against unemployment kills the labor market. We must not fight unemployment - somehow it is there by itself - we must fight for employment. These are completely different things. You can create 25 million good jobs if you completely stop fighting unemployment.
Paradox. But, apparently, there is some kind of logic in this. Because otherwise, we simply don’t remember about these tasks, but we deal with patching holes or fraud in general.
- There is a substitution goal. Fighting unemployment can cost 600 billion rubles a year, and if you are busy, it may not cost you anything. But how is it? No, our bureaucracy does not know how to work.
There is a lot to do here. But much of what our state is doing today is not necessary. It just hurts. But the official is working on the process, there are huge structures, tens of thousands of people are engaged in ensuring that nobody needs the process - and this is only in the area of employment and the fight against unemployment. And how much for others?
But, as a professional, could you suggest any mechanisms that could somehow influence changing the emphasis of labor and employment policies?
- As a professional, I am resolving these issues with the mechanisms that are available to me on our service. I receive tens of thousands from people thanks for our service. Of course, I try to influence those who make decisions. But what can I do? When the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Education needs some statistics and information about what is really happening in the labor market, they still turn to us. And we give them real information and expand their vision. Therefore, what we can do, we do. And then the will is needed in our conditions from the very top.
I now do not understand what I can do across the state for decision-making. But many things that Superjob does are infrastructurally important to the country. The state is an abstraction. But when we help millions of people a year to find a job and close millions of vacancies, this is a pleasant, including social, function. And it is more pleasant for me to do it than to trade in vodka, even if it is more profitable to trade in vodka. Therefore, I try to do what I can in my place.
Career guidance spaces
Speaking of social function. Recently, a new service was launched on your portal related to the future employment of students. It intrigued me that one of the goals set was not purely market-oriented, but it was stated that you have ambitions to solve the tasks of the national economy, in the old language, meaning. Please tell us why this task is so important, general economic in nature?
- Our data and data from other sources say that more than 60% of people do not work in their field after graduation. That is, most people spend a significant amount of time studying at a university, to acquire some knowledge and skills, and if this is not used in one form or another, then it is 4 – 5 – 6 years thrown into the garbage. There are, of course, different levels of education, there are special cases. But in most cases, if a person did not go to work in a specialty obtained at a university, he somehow lost time.
But this is still a problem of vocational guidance?
- Yes, with vocational guidance we are all very bad, to put it mildly. Most of the ideas about their future place of work are completely abstract.
But somewhere in Harvard, in one of the largest business schools, a study was conducted several years ago. Students are already largely accomplished people - asked the question: “After graduating from business school, in five years, where will you be, what will you do, how much money will you get?” Part of the MBA students clearly answered: “I will work here in a certain company or in a company of this type approximately at such a position, in five years my salary will be plus or minus so much. ” Part of this question was answered: "You know, I'm not a boy anymore, I have already seen a lot of things, I consciously came to study at this business school, no one after Harvard is left without work, and I am confident in 100% that I will not be without work because there are lots of offers. What to think about it now? ”Five years later, the same people found and looked at the result. It turned out that those who five years ago clearly answered these questions, not the fact that he was in the very place where he was going to, but, as a rule, held very good positions, was completely satisfied with the existing situation and received wages, as a rule, even higher than expected. And those who could not clearly say five years ago, for the most part, held positions much lower, and the upper salary bar there on average was significantly lower than the lower salary bar for those who could say.
What does this mean? When a person clearly understands what he wants from the labor market, where his labor market is, who his employer is, where he can demonstrate his skills, he has some definite goal to which he starts to go. He can change his goal, shift some accents, horizons are moved apart with each new step, but nevertheless the person is not twitching.
He does not move from one unknown point to another unknown, but from one slave to another slave.
- Yes, and then you can build some kind of movement strategy and some kind of tactic to this strategy.
So you, to some extent, want to fill in the career guidance gaps?
- Yes, sure. Because now it turns out the following. Usually in the discussion, I propose to present, for example: a young man went to study as a railway engineer. Who is his future employer?
- Wonderful. This is all pronounced. His second possible employer?
Ministry of Railways ...
Well, subway ...
- Three. Fourth name.
I do not exclude that some bridge building organizations ...
- Good. Fifth name.
Well I do not know…
- We have the largest commodity companies, we have port companies that build their own access roads. We have companies that develop software for the management of rail transport and transport logistics, and there, too, often need specialists, railway workers. We have risk-management departments of banks that lend to the transport industry, where we also need to understand these specifics ... And a person who received the specialty "engineer of communication" through 20 years after graduation will, of course, imagine that it turns out his colleagues work in the specialty, but not at all in the Russian Railways.
And in a bank or in an insurance company.
“Or somewhere in Siemens, or somewhere in Transmashholding, they design some innovative trains.” But he did not know this and could not even imagine where his future employer was. A significant part of the problems associated with the fact that the outlook is very narrow. Well, a student came to an open day, to a job fair - well, I recognized another one of his potential employers. But as a rule, for each young man there are in reality tens, hundreds, sometimes thousands ...
Has your analytics been preceded by the launch of your new service?
- How did it all start? Employers say: “We have a shortage of programmers, a shortage of catering technologists ... We all have a shortage! And we do not know who prepares education. It does not prepare the one we need. We feel we lack them ... "
There is - this is a well-known fact - a huge structural disparity between the professions acquired, the structure of graduates of educational institutions and the real needs of the economy.
- It is on the one hand. On the other hand, this structural discrepancy is aggravated by the fact that people simply do not know where to look. And it turns out the following: the employer says that we lack these, these and these, and these seem like a surplus - but, too, in general, this has not been proven. But the question to employers: “How many programmers do you need?”, Or “How many catering technologists do you need?”, Or “Who needs more and in what proportion?” - the business does not respond, because each particular company can say about their needs, but in general they are not aware of the cut across the economy, which will show some proportion.
We thought for a long time how to solve this problem? Because the better we solve the tasks related to personnel and employment issues, the more we earn as a business in the end.
How to organize such a system?
- I thought that no one can collect this information from the market, but we can - we have more than six hundred thousand registered companies-employers. Let's create a structure that will allow our customers to tell who they need. But why would companies do this? To interest them, companies need to provide in return information on how many students will graduate in a year, in two, in three. And then the companies will be able to plan something.
Question: where to get this information? Take in universities - the university should know how many people he will graduate in a year or two or three, in which specialties. I called my comrade, who occupies not the last position in one of the country's largest universities, and said: “Dear professor, will you help me, do you have information about which faculty will graduate in the following year? There can be no such information in your largest, well-known university. ” - “Of course, it should be. I can’t say right now, but you go to the university website, there lies the annual report of the rector, there should be all this information. If not there, call me. ” - "Good". I found it, saying: “There are numbers there, how many budget students you have, how many off-budget students, but there is no pin-cut - by specialties”. “Okay, I'll look.” It takes some time, we call up each other, and he says: “You know, despite the fact that I am over the whole university, but somehow I can’t find the information. She, of course, is at the level of deans' offices, but with our dozens of faculties you are tormented by calling all the deans and they have to remove this information according to their plans for graduation. ”
Alas, I do not see anything unexpected in this situation.
- I agree. So this friend tells me: “This information should definitely be in Rosobrnadzor. If you don’t find it in Rosobrnadzor, I’ll give you contacts to the Ministry of Education where we need to send this information, and probably there they will be able to answer your question. ” And I realized that in this way I won’t get the information.
In a planned economy, this problem was solved by the state. And in highly developed countries, highly institutionalized in all respects, who performs these tasks? Or does this sphere remain outside of any regulation? Why I ask this question: after all, this situation is largely a consequence of the fact that we have started to look radically at education as a service. And once a service, then everything depends on the wishes of the client - the consumer of this service. And if it turns out that there is a huge amount of people who want to become, say, psychologists, then demand also creates supply - the number of people in this specialty increases. As a result, we may face overproduction of these same psychologists. And in the end who is to blame? Consumers of these educational services themselves are the only ones who are wrongly planned. It seems to me that this is a vicious approach. Because, firstly, the process itself is inertial: in the process of education you are no longer so easily able to change it. Secondly, you do not have basic information about which, in fact, you said: whether this profession will be in demand - sometimes it is simply unknown a priori. Can we then say that the market is always fair and the problem of a person who cannot find a job in his specialty is his personal problem. Or is it not his fault?
- Of course not. In part, he himself is to blame, but after all, the “Mowgli problem” arises. If a person is placed in conditions where he does not have true freedom of choice, has no information ... After all, the fairy tale about Mowgli is a fairy tale, but in reality if a person is raised by wolves, then he is a wolf, if monkeys mean a monkey, and blaming him that he is a monkey is, to put it mildly, wrong, because in the external conditions that were shaping up, in order not to become a monkey, it was necessary to apply and understand a lot of forces — where. Therefore, in different countries it is solved differently, but many of the problems that exist with us, they are leveled in other countries by the sane development of the economy as a whole.
There is an education intended for basic science, and therefore there must be conditions for the development of basic science, then it gives an order for education. Education can be sharpened for the needs of the real economy here and now. And then the real economy gives some promises to the education system. And sometimes education can be sharpened on a purely social status.
Therefore, education is very different, serves for different purposes, and where the sights are set up in the economy, there is some feedback. And we get that the sights are shot down.
In the world there are also different educational systems. Some are more sensitive to the needs of the economy, others less ...
- All models are very different, there is no ideal anywhere, but our problem is that the tricks are lost. That is, on the one hand, on our side, universities say: “Tell us who to teach, we will teach.” On the other hand, business says: “You show us who you teach, and we will tell you something.” And there is no feedback.
So, we understood that we can collect information from the employer, who needs it, what needs and in what proportions, but we can’t respond to it, because we cannot collect information centrally from the state, besides reliable. Even if there are any tables, they are absolutely dead, unrelated to reality, distorted. And at the level of universities to collect this information somewhere will be possible, but somewhere not. We further reasoned: who can give this information? This information can be given directly by a student who plans to graduate from a specific university in a particular specialty, and he knows exactly when. Next question: what to promise to combine all this?
We proceed from the fact that the earlier a person became interested in the labor market, the more accurately he would later get to work in his specialty, and not just in his specialty, but in the right place, ideal for him. We say to the young man: “Look, you are not looking for work now, for you it is not relevant now. But you have now come to us, just left your email address, and then you will receive information from us about your potential employers. ” That is, we tell the young man something like this: we know exactly what your wife will look like. We even tell you in advance what her name is. And even if you like this girl right now, we will definitely say that this is not your wife from any side, even if you like her.
Even if you marry her - there will be a 99,9% divorce, we guarantee. And here there will be no divorce - we guarantee 99,9% too.
You are the electronic matchmaker.
- Somewhat. We say: you will receive from us once a week a list of companies that are your future employer, “your future wife”. Gradually, in a passive mode, a person forms a certain idea where he is waited. “Here is a range of your future employers. Look, this company is there - people of your specialty are doing this. Do you like it? Put in "Favorites". You don't like it - forget about this company. ”
Farther. How has the process of finding the best students proceeded from the companies? It exists, but only the largest brands that systematically go to universities, conduct some master classes, fairs, open days there, but this is a very expensive process - you need to be able to do all this, some people need it, organizational processes, staffing, print questionnaires, program the site ... And even the largest companies that would like to select the best of the best, they just didn’t have such a toolkit until recently. Now companies come to us that even under these conditions, spending money could reach only two or three major universities and would never know that there is some kind of super student in a regional university that is much more talented and promising than a super student some Moscow university, only information does not pass, and this student will never know about this company either ...
... and that he has a chance to get into it.
- Yes, there was simply no information. Now we are the place of accumulation of information. On the one hand, companies come and say that after a while they will need, for example, refrigeration engineers, computer security specialists, someone else. On the other hand, a young man comes to the site and marks: I will be a refrigeration engineer, and he eventually begins to get an idea of the spectrum of potential employers. And now, with the help of our tool, companies can declare an open door - they don’t need to go to universities for this, they can organize it in their territory, because they can precisely point out the people who are the most motivated, most interested.
Then another very important issue is solved. Now we have centers - and this is not necessarily in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but first and foremost it is Moscow and St. Petersburg - which draw juice from the regions. Guys, if they come to study in Moscow, as a rule, in Moscow and remain, because, in particular, it is not clear to them that what happens in their small homeland takes place in the labor market. And now, when information appears, a young man who would like to return to his city sees his future potential employers in the region from which he left. He understands that, it turns out, in his homeland he is no less in demand than where he studied, and maybe even more, because there are not enough personnel in the regions and the salary offered for work in his specialty is comparable, but there dad, mom, a roof over your head, support roots.
It turns out that potentially your system can be sharpened to eliminate some regional disproportions.
- Well, including - this is one of the side effects. Although, of course, these processes are inert. However, the pace of change may turn out to be higher than expected: only in the first week of the 640 service, companies, as a rule, are the largest companies, well-known brands, have all been classified.
When work is pleasure
Here you take on such a new, time-consuming business. I understand that there is a certain background to the company: it does a lot of analytics: not every team could have such a task, in principle, been set, and even more so to solve. But is it for you: business expansion, commercially determined transition to a new competitive advantage, or are you motivated by something else?
- You know, the question does not have a definite answer - fortunately, I guess. The slogan of our company: "Work should be a pleasure." And we ourselves are guided by this motto in our activities.
When you make the world better, you get pleasure from it. And we have always tried to make sure that the people who work with us also enjoy work. Because when people around you enjoy what they do, they work more efficiently, they don’t have to be forced, and the best motivation is self-motivation, and not some stick and carrot patterns, the premiums will not replace all of this, because the man is engaged in his work, he does not do it for me, but precisely for himself.
Confucius said: "Find an occupation that you like, and you will not have a single working day in your life." Therefore, a matter of liking is very important. And while there are no people mediocre and there are no people of one point of application. A person always has a wide enough range. And if a person cannot decide on his spectrum, he will twitch non-systemically somewhere. When we have 60% of people not working in their specialty, this means that around us up to 60% of people are professionally unhappy. See what kind of facial expressions in the subway. We understand that we will not make everyone happy, but if we turn 60 to 30 and we’ll have not 40% of professionally happy people, but 70%, it will be another completely country. We will have 70% smile on the subway, and this will be another synergistic effect.
But such good intentions require some special technology?
- We, as a leading and quite successful company, can afford to invest in some long-term prospects. We hope now to receive money on this, which will pay back the technical functioning of such a service? Not. And within a year we do not hope to earn so much money on this service so that it will pay off. And in three years? Not. But in a ten-year term, the presence of a large number of high-quality employees and high-quality employers will make the labor market more active, more mobile, and better-quality. And this is all our market.
Over the past thirteen years since the advent of Superjob, there has been no innovation in the recruitment market. And I always said that the one who comes up with something new - he has a chance in the market.
Many imagine innovation as the result of some kind of imagination, as an act of pure inspiration. But the new thing you are proposing helps to solve the national economic problem. You assume the collection of colossal information. You undertake to predict, and even plan something else. Obviously, this is a national scale. That is, here the socially significant and interest of the company itself find some kind of mutual reinforcement. Maybe it is logical that it is precisely such innovations that are demanded by the economy today?
- I agree with you in many respects. After all, what is innovation in services? It is impossible to invent a new entity. If some process was not offline, then you either automate something, it still does not work, because people do not need it. In this case, what happened? There is a need for companies to predict. And somehow they each do it on their own. Do young people need to have a career guidance tool? There is. And the most motivated of young people without any tools every day do it. Are there companies that work systematically with students? Yes, but very few of them. We do not invent any new process. We just understood how those processes that go on their own offline, automate, optimize, combine and give what was previously available to ten companies - tens of thousands of companies. Accordingly, the process is cheaper for them. Radically. Something was available to hundreds or thousands of students - now we are giving this tool to millions. But not everyone will want to strain and work actively with this tool. Accordingly, even this tool will act differently. Because someone will be liable to receive information, and he will be correctly determined, although he will make the right, but not the best choice. But the one who will work with this tool in the same way as he worked without this tool, if he used to make the right choice often, now he will make the best possible choice. Beautifully everything turns out. And we want to solve some kind of national, general business problem. But we do not put the question. We are here more to people, not to abstraction. We want more happy people.