Military Review

"Worn" economy

May 2013 of the year turned out to be the most unencumbered working day of the month compared to the same months of previous years. Rested the Russians, at least those of us who conduct work and rest strictly in the days determined by the state, almost half a month. Naturally, such a gift for the May holidays fell in love with many of our compatriots, who are used to devoting any free time in spring, summer and autumn to their country and backyards. The country (its urban, we see, cluster) endeavored en masse for the city: someone for agricultural work on the land, and someone for the kebab that has become traditional for many people, along with abundant libations. Rested on a grand scale.

However, a month after numerous weekends in the first half of May, the first consequences of this long rest began to manifest themselves. And the consequences have surfaced mainly on the economic surface. According to Rosstat, the May inflation rate was only lower than the corresponding January level of the current year. The May inflation jump was 0,7%. Only at first glance it seems that 0,7% is an insignificant value, but inflation is a thing in which sometimes every tenth percent affects ordinary citizens of a country. If the inflation rates of May had spread throughout the whole year, by the end of December our economy would have received a tangible blow in the form of 8,4% inflation. The last time such inflation rates were at the peak of the crisis (2009-2010 years).

The Russian government has already said that the final inflation figures will have to be adjusted. If at the beginning of the year it was planned to curb inflation indicators at the level of 6,8-7%, today it was necessary to raise the bar by about half a percent. The new forecast of government economists is 7,4%. However, after the May jump to the level in 7,4%, you still need to try to get out. After all, if you look at the past year, then only three summer months gave an inflationary increase of 3,35% (more than half of the entire annual inflation over the 2012 year). Then such a jump was associated with a sharp drop in the price of oil, and, unfortunately, for now the cost of a barrel of oil still influences the economic situation in Russia. Recall that the price “pit” for a barrel of oil last summer was fixed at the level of 95,89 dollar. Now the cost of oil "portions" is in the area of ​​the psychological mark of 100 dollars per barrel, but so far slightly exceeds it.

This gives food for thought about the objective reasons for a rather sharp increase in the level of inflation and, as a consequence, a rise in prices. In particular, the cost of the minimum set of products in our country increased by 3,8% by the end of the same May (just by the beginning of the year by 10,1%, which again indicates a large contribution to the price increase of the May index). It turns out that the role of consumption for us in May became higher than the role of production, which affected the economy. And, as you can see, the price of oil has nothing to do with it. However, if in a number of developed countries abroad, the increase in consumer activity of citizens accelerates inflation only in those areas with which the livelihoods of ordinary citizens are directly connected (for example, the food market, tourism, the service sector), in our country, so-called “household inflation” is strange pulled behind her and interest in the areas of production, construction and energy.

St. Petersburg real estate market research services published materials according to which the rise in housing prices in the northern capital and metropolitan area in May 2013 amounted to 3,1%. This is a month! For a relatively calm situation in the housing market, this growth looks weird. However, there are regions that, according to this indicator, 2013 were able to overtake even St. Petersburg in May. And this, as it turned out, was not even Moscow. Absolute leader in real estate prices has become pre-Olympic Sochi. Here, the price of housing for the month jumped by 4,6%. “Silver” on the rise in real estate prices took Taganrog (Rostov region) - almost 4%. Three leaders in this list closes Ryazan. Here, housing prices jumped by 3,4%.

And if the rise in real estate prices in Sochi can be partly justified by the upcoming grand sporting event, then it is difficult to explain the rather sharp rise in housing prices in the same Taganrog and Ryazan by objective changes in the economic market. In all likelihood, here is trivial speculation, which is based on the ineradicable desire of certain individuals to gain additional profit here and now. And for this purpose, the main trump card in the style is used: buy today, then it will be at all exorbitant prices. This move, we must admit, often works with us. But it still remains unclear which way our controlling bodies look: FAS, for example ... It is difficult to assume that the rush to buy real estate in Taganrog is several times higher than the average Russian, with all due respect for such a wonderful city as Taganrog.

The same May turned into the annual record holder in terms of consumer price growth. Monthly growth was 1% (overall in the country), and here such a leader as Kalmykia (an increase in 1,6%) for the month is already taking the lead.

Considering these figures even 15-20 years ago, it was quite possible to feel pride in our economy. But now the yard is not 1993 the year when inflation in Russia was 840% per year. Russia has long been transferred to another economic dimension for itself, and therefore it is incorrectly a priori to compare the indicators of 1993 and 2013. It is much more correct to compare them with previous years, and this comparison allows you to seriously think about the situation.

The monthly increase in consumer prices at the 1% level is too high for an economically developed country that claims to link itself with some global financial center. Even for a regional financial center, these numbers are large. Of course, we can shut our eyes and try to ignore them, but only in the end we ourselves can miss a sharp economic blow. Will there be such a blow? This question was recently answered by Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who once again came up with an original epithet for the Russian economy. He called our economy pre-storm.

But if the head of the government of the country gives such a well-defined definition of the economic situation in the country, then why then to prevent a possible thunderstorm - no sensible actions are taken to disperse the thunderclouds. I remember that even before the beginning of the May holidays, President Vladimir Putin was gathering a mini-meeting, at which he demanded that the heads of relevant departments submit a document to 15 in May that would dot the i in how the program to increase GDP growth would be implemented. Recall that the economic growth forecast for Russia from the Ministry of Economic Development is 3,3% for 2013 a year. This is not enough for the full development of the country - we understand that this is not enough - the president also announced.

But the May holidays are long over, but where is the document, which would reflect the real program of economic development? If he is, then his existence is somehow suspiciously silent. So suspiciously silent, as if he was not there ... Dmitry Medvedev is silent and “pre-storm” ... Or they expect Putin to forget about his assignment. But it is unlikely ...

In the meantime, our leaders are looking for (let's hope they are looking for) ways of rectifying the situation in the economy: combating obvious speculations in various markets, curbing inflation at digestible values ​​(which is important, for example, for long-term loans for the development of agriculture and other business areas) production growth strategies, we are preparing for rest again ... Now it's summer. Rest is certainly great, but no matter how much the Greeks and Cypriots have ever turned us at such a pace ... True, there are significant differences - we are not paid a salary for 14 rest per year, which means we will break through! ..
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  1. Dima190579
    Dima190579 7 June 2013 08: 55
    It’s a pity that economics is not a physicist in physics. You can still figure out one system for measuring si in economics, each author has his own system of measurements. It is understandable that he has confused everyone, he doesn’t understand what, but walks with an important look.
    1. Dangerous
      Dangerous 7 June 2013 09: 06
      In economics, the measurement system is also only one and also its own laws. Another thing is how to understand them and analyze the results.
      PS Although the site is called "Military Review", but the economy is an integral part of our whole life, the life of the country and the army, therefore they are right to post such articles. They force the brain to think a little "what and how", and not just stupidly shout "Urya Putin" or "America go away"
      1. Karabu
        Karabu 7 June 2013 18: 54
        Such vacations are needed for those who have everything fine with pennies. we have given such a May salary at the production facility that many are not enough to pay off loans. live as you like, but the thief gulnul
    2. vezunchik
      vezunchik 7 June 2013 22: 49
      we have a clear economy - as the boss said, such numbers will be!
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. cartridge
    cartridge 7 June 2013 09: 03
    I personally have enough in May and two holidays - May 1 and 9! The rest is from the evil one! And the attempts of the authorities to decompose the people idleness in early January and May are inevitable and always go sideways to our economy
    1. Micex
      Micex 7 June 2013 10: 29
      I do not quite understand your either an epithet, or an allegory about - "the authorities' attempts to corrupt the people with idleness" Explain, please.
      1. Manager
        Manager 7 June 2013 10: 55
        Quote: Micex
        Explain, please.

        And what is there to explain .. There are workaholics, but there are people who understand that all money cannot be earned. For example, I feel better with the holidays. So to say he made money and spent time with his family. A patron of a family campaign does not say so once.
        1. Micex
          Micex 7 June 2013 11: 10
          it’s not a love of work, but it smacks of a conspiracy of officials in order to ruin the Russian economy)
          1. COBOK
            COBOK 7 June 2013 11: 36
            Here is a question of a different level: who can have a PAIN-free rest for ten days? Those who arrange for themselves, well, at the same time, and for the rest of the people, such vacations are quite sufficient for a trip to foreign resorts - deputies and officials. Gos. employees sitting on salaries are also not on a salary - money is dripping. But many such holidays are useless ...
            1. Ustas
              Ustas 7 June 2013 13: 38
              Quote: COBOK
              Those who arrange for themselves, well, at the same time, and for the rest of the people, such vacations are quite sufficient for a trip to foreign resorts - deputies and officials. Gos. employees sitting on salaries are also not on a salary - money is dripping. But many such holidays are useless ...

              But I still don’t understand why for days of idleness (holidays, weekends) officials and salaries receive a salary? Absurd! Salary, it's salary. Do you want to relax, for God's sake, but for free.
            2. Raphael_83
              Raphael_83 7 June 2013 17: 30
              Well, I can rest for ten days completely painlessly, simply for the reason that the last time I took legal leave (the one that is 28 calendar days annually) was in May 2007. After that, not at the same place of work in 2008-2009. ("Sotsinvestbank", Ufa), nor at the current (branch "Rosbank", Ufa) for 2009-2013. I was not on vacation. Therefore, for me the only real chance to have a good rest is the long holidays at Christmas and May Day. (By normal rest, I mean not booze, kebabs and women, but healthy sleep, delicious food, a favorite book, visit friends in another city, help relatives in the country and around the house).
              From SW. hi
              1. Rakti-kali
                Rakti-kali 8 June 2013 12: 29
                Quote: Raphael_83
                Well, I can rest for ten days without any pain, simply for the reason that the last time I was on legal leave (the one that had 28 calendar days annually) I visited in May 2007

                Lucky for you ... I have not been on vacation for 11 years.
    2. smart ass
      smart ass 7 June 2013 14: 54
      Excuse me, someone makes you thump on holidays ??? And then put it out ?? Only cancel holidays will also conquer the population
    3. Rakti-kali
      Rakti-kali 8 June 2013 12: 27
      Japan - 15 public holidays. Russia - 8 public holidays. Am I a Japanese government trying to corrupt my people with idleness? And sideways to our economy is the greed and irresponsibility of the oligarchic ruling elite.
  4. Orel
    Orel 7 June 2013 09: 04
    Do new economic laws apply in Russia? Inflation is rising because of the holidays it turns out. I always thought that inflation is rising:
    1. Financing government spending by issuing money in excess of the market for goods and services
    2. Excessive expansion of the money supply due to mass lending carried out by issuing unsecured currency.
    3. Monopoly.
    4. Reductions in the real volume of national production.
    They came up with an excuse for the deplorable state of the economy that holidays are affecting. Maybe so, but this is the consequence, as they say, and not the reason.
    1. 0251
      0251 7 June 2013 09: 36
      Indeed, this is a consequence, not a cause. In general, a lot of rest is harmful, deplorably affects health.
      1. Manager
        Manager 7 June 2013 10: 57
        Quote: 0251
        deplorably affects health.

        I went to Karelia in May. A week in the fresh air, outdoor activities and healthy food. There was almost no alcohol. I have only benefited from my health.
        And if, like some people, sit at the holidays in a birdhouse and eat hanka, then here it is not the holidays that harm, but the disease "Laziness and Alcoholism"
    2. Z.A.M.
      Z.A.M. 7 June 2013 10: 56
      Quote: Orel
      Inflation is rising because of the holidays it turns out.

      Well, so they will not find a reason in this lol A ride ...
      I remember an anecdote, although earlier it concerned Gorbachev. He is told that chickens are dying in poultry farms. He suggests painting the chicken coops red. A month later, again, the report - the chickens are dying. Paint it yellow. A month later, the minister reports that all the chickens are dead. To which the ruler remarks: "It's a pity, a pity ... And I still have so many interesting ideas ..."
      Something has changed? They can’t figure it out, where is the reason, where is the consequence ...
      And about Putin's "demands" ... Perhaps some have just realized that there is not much time to "tyrit", it is necessary to cash in. All the same, as always, nothing serious will happen. Well, threaten with a finger ...
      1. Orel
        Orel 8 June 2013 07: 03
        I agree with you all 100%
    3. Andrey77
      Andrey77 7 June 2013 11: 36
      And June 12 is Constitution Day. And now I have to stop the equipment on the 11th, and on the 13th to restart it. Complete nonsense. But there is no arguing against the state.
      1. Orel
        Orel 8 June 2013 07: 05
        We do not always rationally distribute the holidays, here you can not argue. There can really be too many holidays with weekends drinks
  5. individual
    individual 7 June 2013 09: 39
    Quote Dangerous:
    "Urya Putin" or "America go away"

    Z. Brzezinski said 8 years ago: "Your elite contains half a trillion dollars in our banks. So whose elite is yours or ours?" The threat of confiscation of money, property, and the expulsion of the children of our officials from the United States is high.
    And the elite itself, meanwhile, split up. Some of them follow Putin, who is trying to recreate the empire, but there are also many who do not. But everyone is afraid of the development of the plan of "color" revolutions - tough resistance of the Russian authorities and under the pretext of fighting "dictatorial regime" The United States may arrest our government accounts - all according to the Libyan scenario.
    This the elite’s split in minds, deeds and money must be overcome.
  6. pinecone
    pinecone 7 June 2013 10: 10
    The prime minister's blatant illiteracy. The situation, the economic situation, may be "pre-storm", but not the economy itself.
    1. pamero
      pamero 7 June 2013 10: 52
      he is not the prime minister to be a DJ in the club. Hangs out well.
  7. optimist
    optimist 7 June 2013 10: 16
    Strange conclusions are made by the author ... In a country that lives mainly on resource rent, the number of days off is not of fundamental importance. The author's logic in the style: "The wind blows because the trees sway." Perhaps, the country even won from the fact that numerous officials were lost for half a month - they stole less and took bribes! laughing
    But seriously ... In my city of 100, only 3700 people are engaged in real production. The rest are "selling air." The situation is about the same, probably, on the national average. It seems that the time has just come to pay for 25 years of theft, laziness and fucking ... recourse
    1. BARKAS
      BARKAS 7 June 2013 10: 41
      Quote: optimist
      In a country that lives mainly on rents, the number of days off is not critical

      In general, you are right, the main thing is that the Chinese do not make an extra day off for themselves then a global collapse is inevitable laughing
    SPIRITofFREEDOM 7 June 2013 10: 24
    So many economists released as everyone claims and the situation on the shelves to sort out and make a reasonable plan can not !!!!!
    insanity and crime!
    MIKHAN 7 June 2013 10: 46
    May holidays are needed. The bulk of the population spends them in their summer cottages .. That's New Year's is obviously too much !!
    1. Manager
      Manager 7 June 2013 10: 59
      Quote: MIKHAN
      May holidays are needed. The bulk of the population spends them in their summer cottages .. That's New Year's is obviously too much !!

      In January I have a good time with my family. In the suburbs and in the fresh air.
  10. The comment was deleted.
  11. zvereok
    zvereok 7 June 2013 11: 13
    A bill on imprisonment up to 15 years for corruption has been submitted to the State Duma

    The head of the State Duma Committee on Security and Anti-Corruption, Irina Yarovaya, introduced a bill to the State Duma that strengthens responsibility for corruption crimes and embezzlement of budget funds.

    RIA Novosti


    Changes are made to the Criminal Code (CC) and the Code of Criminal Procedure (CCP), as well as in the law on the conformity of expenses of persons holding public office.

    But I think there will not be much sense. Law for not loyal.

    Did not like:

    In addition, a separate article is introduced - "Theft of budgetary funds, funds of state extra-budgetary funds and financial resources of a state company, state corporations." Regardless of the method of theft, such a crime is proposed to be punished by forced labor for up to 5 years or imprisonment for up to 7 years with a fine of up to 500 thousand rubles. If the crime is committed using official position, in the execution of a state or municipal contract, as well as a state contract for state defense orders or in large amounts, the term of imprisonment may be from 7 to 12 years, and the fine will increase to 3 million rubles. If the act was committed on an especially large scale, it is proposed to establish imprisonment for a term of 8 to 15 years with a fine of from 3 million to 5 million rubles.

    In other words, a stretch of the law for middle managers of effective managers.

    It is necessary to introduce the status of "high official" and apply "special measures" to them, up to and including "treason".
  12. sub307
    sub307 7 June 2013 11: 24
    There is an opinion: "1 hour of working time of all people employed in the economy brings the country about 750 million rubles (the calculation was made based on the figures of economists in relation to how much the economy loses due to the holidays)." This is for 2009. I believe (hope) that in affirming the holidays in the year, the "above" are aware of what they are doing.
    1. Andrey77
      Andrey77 7 June 2013 11: 48
      In the USA, they work without holidays. Christmas - 3 days off. And that’s all. True, there the state is not a decree for business. Rather, the opposite - business rules over the state.
  13. bubla5
    bubla5 7 June 2013 12: 02
    It is a pity that at this stage, instead of the FAS, the Cheka does not work.
  14. Severok
    Severok 7 June 2013 22: 52
    Yes, there are a lot of holidays, but they are not the reason for the acceleration of inflation. The reason for the acceleration of inflation, oddly enough, is on the surface. These are domestic prices for fuel, energy and energy carriers. Take these prices under control, make the methods of their formation transparent for the masses, and they will automatically fall by 20 percent. Although the greed of our "fuel and energy entrepreneurs" is known, they will only use this opportunity for profit.