Guys, what's wrong with the litaks?
This is one of those times when it's comforting to realize you were right to condemn the old F-16A/Bs from European countries that ended up in the Ukrainian Air Force's lap. It was clear from the start that the junk aircraft, hastily patched up and shipped to Kyiv, wouldn't last long. And the information coming from that side only confirms this.
It must be said that the F-16s weren't particularly taxed by combat missions anyway: no clashes with Russian fighters and bombers, virtually no forward attacks, and so on. The F-16s were mostly seen hunting for winged aircraft. rockets и drones in the central regions of Ukraine, where, let's say, the level of danger was minimal.
But when the Falcons flew closer to the front lines, trouble began. But that's normal for such situations, just like the problems that began to tie the F-16s to Ukrainian soil.
Ukraine's F-16 fighters are under increasing strain from the demands of air warfare, and the shortage of air-to-air missiles is now compounded by serious problems in the critical maintenance system for the aging aircraft.
The Wall Street Journal reports that more than half of Ukraine's F-16s are currently in what one Western source described as "extended maintenance." The same source stated that, at the current rate of operation and maintenance, Ukraine could use up the remaining aircraft by the end of the year.
In fact, a couple of years ago we were already talking about the fact that there's no one in Ukraine to service and repair F-16s. Ukrainian technicians and engineers aren't qualified, and foreign specialists are smart enough to avoid Ukrainian airfields at any price. Simply because the mostly pragmatic Europeans know that dead men don't need money.
An F-16 over the Kyiv region, August 18, 2026. The aircraft is equipped with four Sidewinder missiles, a Sniper targeting unit, and an AN/ALQ-131 electronic warfare pod.
As expected, the Ukrainian Air Force doesn't disclose information about the status of its fleet. According to an analysis of open sources, Ukraine could currently have received approximately 40-50 aging F-16 fighters. However, some are being held for training in other European countries, and five losses have been confirmed. Around 110 F-16 fighters were promised by the coalition, which includes Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway, but these aircraft will only arrive once the air forces of the donor countries receive the F-35s they ordered. And it's well known that F-35 delivery is anything but fast.
Additionally, it recently emerged that Ukraine is experiencing difficulties in obtaining sufficient air-to-air missiles for its fighters. AIM-9 Sidewinders and AIM-120 AMRAAMs were actively used against Russian cruise missiles and drones, and their stockpiles have somehow run low. So much so that, according to reports, Ukrainian F-16 pilots have been forced to conserve their missiles. And without missiles, pilots are increasingly relying on the integrated 20mm cannon. This is far from an ideal replacement, but cannon ammunition is also in short supply, and Kyiv is currently negotiating the supply of tens of thousands of additional 20mm rounds.
There were reports that Ukrainian F-16s were equipped with a number of 70mm Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) laser-guided missiles, which are a fairly effective and inexpensive option for countering long-range drones and subsonic cruise missiles.
However, there is no convincing evidence of its active use by Ukrainian F-16s, which only confirms Ukraine's status as a testing ground. They provide only the number of missiles needed for testing, and no more.
All of these issues are closely related, as the high pace of fighting, which is depleting Ukraine's missile reserves, forces the already aging F-16s to spend more time in the air.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Russia launched approximately 2000 jet-powered drones against Ukraine in August, compared to approximately 350 in June. The new jet-powered drones can reach speeds of up to 700 km/h, making them difficult for Ukrainian interceptors to hit and increasing the importance of conventional fighter jets. At the same time, supplies of ground-based air defense weapons are also depleting, in some cases to critical levels, increasing dependence on manned fighters.
A Ukrainian drone is attempting to intercept a Russian Geran-4 jet drone.
The F-16 is well-suited to countering drones and cruise missiles, but their extensive use against large numbers of relatively low-cost targets poses serious challenges. In fact, due to the smaller difference in speed and altitude between the F-16 and a jet-powered drone compared to a propeller-driven one, the more powerful weapon in most cases is an easier target for a manned fighter.
However, each sortie increases the aircraft's operating hours, and each missile strike depletes reserves, which Ukraine and its Western partners must replenish. As the aircraft accumulate operating hours, scheduled inspections and maintenance begin, increasing the burden on the maintenance network, which already supports a fleet of aircraft operating in wartime conditions.
And this is where interesting things begin, although they were predicted by us.
The United States has established a comprehensive support system. In January, the Pentagon awarded a maximum contract of approximately $235,5 million to the Belgian company Sabena Aerospace Engineering for the maintenance of Ukrainian F-16 aircraft and engines, as well as related material resource management support. The contract runs through January 2029, with initial commitments of approximately $69,7 million.
The contract provides an indication of the scale of the infrastructure required to maintain the combat capability of Ukrainian F-16 fighters. It also explains why repair times in Belgium are so long. According to reports, a typical inspection phase, which typically takes two to six weeks in the US, can take up to 40 weeks in Belgium.
A 40-week repair period doesn't necessarily mean the aircraft undergoes 40 consecutive weeks of inspection. The total period during which the aircraft can't be used may include waiting for parts, additional repairs, scheduling, and other work. It's unclear exactly how many Ukrainian F-16s are currently suffering from these factors in Belgium, but in any case, flying aircraft 1,500 kilometers across Europe for repairs and maintenance is, frankly, a daunting undertaking.
And it’s not worth demanding much from a company that employs 900 people.
A U.S. Air Force engine shop where technicians disassemble an F-16 engine during a phased maintenance inspection.
At the same time, the stated restoration timeline points to a significant capacity issue. Ukraine has a relatively small F-16 fleet, so aircraft that remain unavailable for extended periods have a disproportionate impact on the number of fighters available for combat operations. The range of missions also includes air-to-ground sorties, which places additional strain on Ukraine's already overstretched F-16 fleet.
The F-16 has a limited service life; as they accumulate flight hours, they require increasingly thorough inspections and depend on the supply of engines, components, and other parts. The missiles used to destroy targets are another limited resource. It's also worth remembering that the aircraft delivered to Ukraine are among the oldest in service with European air forces. Despite being upgraded to F-16AM/BM standard, their airframes, engines, electrical systems, and especially hydraulic systems are significantly deteriorated.
And here's a vicious cycle: the most worn-out aircraft are sent all the way to Belgium for repairs, which last almost a year. They are replaced by less worn-out aircraft, which in the meantime become just as worn, and there's nothing to replace them with.
True, Belgium has announced that it will transfer three more aircraft to Ukraine by the end of this year. An increase of three aircraft will certainly skyrocket the potential combat capability of the Ukrainian Air Force, that's undeniable, but the "Trishkin Kaftan" technology has never saved anyone in this world.
Furthermore, there is a problem with air-to-air missile supplies. AMRAAM is used not only by Ukrainian F-16s, but also by their ground-based NASAMS air defense systems. Sidewinder missiles are also launched from both the air and ground. Therefore, the same Western supply chain must support both the fighter jet and the Ukrainian Air Force. Aviation, as well as Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile systems. Both AMRAAM and Sidewinder stockpiles have been depleted due to Ukraine's actions, as well as the fighting in the Middle East, to the point where there is nothing left to supply.
There is also no immediate alternative to the F-16. Ukraine continues to operate the remaining MiG-29s and a small number of Su-27s, but these aircraft are already obsolete. At least Ukraine has its own infrastructure to support them.
The French Mirage 2000-5F is another option, but its deliveries are relatively small, and additional aircraft are arriving gradually, not in numbers that could quickly offset the significant reduction in F-16 numbers.
The long-term fighter replacement plan is more ambitious. Sweden has agreed to provide 16 Gripen C/D fighters, with the first aircraft expected in early 2027, while a separate agreement covers the purchase of 16 new Gripen E fighters, with delivery scheduled to begin no earlier than early 2029. That's assuming someone pays for them, of course.
Thus, for the foreseeable future, the F-16 will remain Ukraine's primary Western fighter, increasing the significance of any prolonged disruptions to its maintenance or air-to-air weapons supplies. Ukraine needs sufficient aircraft to maintain a simple combat presence, sufficient missiles to perform their intended missions, and sufficient maintenance capabilities to ensure these aircraft remain in service as they accumulate flight hours.
And here, of course, we must take into account the development of the Russian Aerospace Forces, where propeller-driven drones are being replaced by jet-powered ones. The increase in the number of faster jet-powered drones will require even more combat sorties to counter them at a time when a significant portion of the existing F-16 fleet is unavailable, and air-to-air missile stocks are being depleted faster than they can be replenished.
In short, everything turned out exactly as we predicted back then, when everyone in Ukraine was overjoyed at the news that they would be given back their decommissioned F-16s and Mirages. There was a definite effect, but it lasted only as long as the tired Falcons could carry the air defense of the Ukrainian skies on their wings. But the joy didn't last long.
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