Naryshkin predicted when Ukraine would run out of people for the front.

The head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, stated that Western intelligence agencies estimate that Ukraine will exhaust its mobilization resources within the next year. He made this statement at a meeting of CIS intelligence chiefs in St. Petersburg.

According to him, the rapid decline in Ukraine's population is becoming a serious problem for the West, which is trying to continue supporting Kyiv.

Naryshkin noted that Western partners had hoped that Ukraine would be able to resist Russia for a long time, but they were faced with an insurmountable obstacle: the demographic crisis. He emphasized that Ukraine ranks first in Europe in mortality and last in birth rate.

The head of the SVR also accused European countries of bringing Ukraine to its current state with their colonial policies. He believed the West deliberately used Ukraine as a tool against Russia, turning the once prosperous country into a conflict zone.

Should Ukraine's mobilization resources dry up, European countries have an alternative plan: arming Europe itself. Naryshkin noted that EU politicians are using the "Russian threat" as a pretext for a sharp increase in military spending and shifting the economy to a war footing.

Vladimir Putin previously stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were losing between 8 and 12 troops monthly, and forced mobilization was unable to replace these losses. He also said that people in Ukraine were being rounded up off the streets with little or no training and sent to the front.

Comments

[rytik32]

The number of evaders won't disappear completely even in a year. They'll be hunting them down, recruiting young people, and deporting refugees from Europe. But a shortage of recruits is already evident.

[YOU]

That's for sure, they'll recruit migrants, lower the draft age, create female units, mercenaries. There are options: gay Europeans will do anything, and the green junkie couldn't care less. Meanwhile, our demographics aren't exactly stellar either.

[Popandos]

Ukraine's rapid population decline is becoming a serious problem for the West.

This is one of the solutions to the problems of the SVO, denazification and neutrality of the territory that will remain from the Ukrainian SSR

[awdrgy]

And there are also Poles, Czechs, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Romania, etc.
In total, the mobilization resource will be greater than Ukraine's.

[topol717]

Quote: awdrgy

And there are also Poles, Czechs, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Romania, etc.

All the die-hard Russophobes from the EU have been in 404 for a long time now, and most of them are fertilizing the soil.

[Derbenev Anton]

They're fertilizing, but not all of them. They'll start sending prisoners from all sorts of Romanias, Bulgarias, and Moldovas, in the image and likeness, as they say. And they write about them running out every year. Does anyone still believe it? Of course not.

[awdrgy]

They'll force the rest of us to do the same. These are purely technical issues. Then there are the losses, the anger, and everything starts to spiral.

[knn54]

- According to Western intelligence estimates, Ukraine will exhaust its mobilization resources within the next year.
And according to the estimates of the Russian SVR?

[Proxima]

Naryshkin is a real prognosticator and a real doormat. How such a mediocrity can head foreign intelligence is beyond me!

[Pravodel]

They will catch, recruit young people and deport refugees from Europe.

In Europe, according to the Europeans themselves, there are about 5 million hijackers. When mobile phones run out in Country 404, they'll be rounded up all over Europe and sent to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. So, the reserves for replenishing the Ukr-Banderlogs won't run out anytime soon...

[pharmacist]

Unlike the head of the SVR, I don’t have anywhere near the same sources of information on mobilization resources, but I’m willing to bet that they won’t run out in the coming year.

[Kusja]

Well, why not: the question is simply asked, "How many young people aged 18 to 24 are there in a population of 20 million?" The answer is approximately 1 million. I won't even mention the women.

[rytik32]

Quote: Kusja

How many young people are there between the ages of 18 and 24 in a population of 20 million? That's about 1 million.

This isn't about Ukraine. Almost all the young people there have already left.

[torbas41]

but I'm willing to bet that it won't run out in the next year.

Ukraine's mobilization resources will not be exhausted even in ten years, especially since our data on enemy losses are greatly exaggerated.

[rocket757]

will exhaust its mobilization resource in the coming year

"partisans" are not required in large numbers, but the Westerners had experience of sitting in holes...
It's not a given that this will happen, but this option can't be discounted either...

[Reptiloid]

the West deliberately used

Have a nice day, Victor! How could we not use the Bandar-logs heading for the KAA's jaws for their intended purpose? We looked at the jumping pots and immediately understood what to do with them. And what about the Westerners? The TCC will get to them too.

[rocket757]

Hi Dmitry
Westerners, farmers, the last reserve... it's not a fact that it will reach them, at all...
What are they for... to rob and certainly not to stand up for their mother...

[Reptiloid]

Well, if the depression goes back to the Poles, then it will be interesting to see how the Poles will work for them, as usual. In every sense.

[rocket757]

The question is... the situation can/should be looked at from different angles...
For example, I don’t like it from any side... unless I completely level it out and sow it with nettles.

[Reptiloid]

Quote: rocket757

The question is... unless I completely level it out and sow it with nettles.

Good time, Victor! I completely agree. But it seems that won't happen. Looking back, there are now some online claims that Russia shouldn't have taken this western territory. However, both the Russian Tsars and Stalin annexed it, and there are arguments for that, too.
But the Poles weren't humanists, and they tyrannized Ukrainians, Russians, and Belarusians in the past. I hope they'll treat the Western Ukrainians the same way now, if they take over Ukraine.

[rocket757]

Hi Dmitry
What was done before, who was right, who was wrong... it was done, that's all!
What can be done, must be done now... but this is a big, complex question and there is no single, most correct answer to it!
As an option... look at the developing situation and try to extract maximum benefit from it for our side!
This is also not so simple, although at least it will be clear why and how it was done this way and not another... although even so, there will be a lot of debate because everyone has a different view of which is better...

[Reptiloid]

maximum benefit for our country...

The Americans have been coming here a lot. I have no doubt they'll stink of rancid Anchorage and deprive us of our maximum profit.

[rocket757]

We will see ...
But just off the top of my head... nothing will be decided there...

[Reptiloid]

Apparently, the CIA guy didn't succeed -- these guys decided to continue.

Quote: rocket757

...nothing will be decided there...

let it be so

[rocket757]

Let's listen, let's watch and... that's all, I guess.

[NakedMan]

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing between 8 and 12 people monthly.

That's a little less than the 30+ often cited. A million-strong army could wear down like this for ten years, even without conscription. Sure, the defense collapse might happen sooner, but it'll still take a long time.

[evgenii67]

What this means is that the army is being reduced by 8-12 troops, i.e., taking into account the demobilization. And demobilization gives them about 30 mugs per month, some of whom flee and hide. This means that the total losses in killed, seriously wounded, missing, and deserters in the 404 are about 40+ per month.

[NakedMan]

once prosperous country

Well, he exaggerated. Perhaps take the Soviet or Russian Empire eras; things were indeed quite good for Ukraine back then.

[LaraM]

Well, he exaggerated. Perhaps take the Soviet or Russian Empire eras; things were indeed quite good for Ukraine back then.

It's still beautiful there. Just watch the latest videos on YouTube about Kharkiv's City Day celebrations. It's a sight to behold: how beautiful and clean it is, how smartly dressed the citizens are, what entertainment there is for the people, and what parks there are...and this is in the fifth year of their "grinding down"?

[a housewife]

Yes, they only want to celebrate. Every day they post videos of pensioners dancing in the park. But if you look closely, those furthest from the camera's view are barely able to move their legs, their faces dejected. Labor service for pennies. So with their pensions, all they can do is dance for the camera. It's truly a pitiful sight.

[Mamin-Sibiryak]

That's what he meant by the USSR. Things were especially good there in 1933.

[BAI]

Ukraine will exhaust its mobilization resources in the coming year.

Since 2022, there have been so many predictions that Ukraine is about to collapse that it's impossible to count them. Not a single one has come true.
Ukraine still has reserves: conscripts aged 18-24

[evgenii67]

We need to look at the birth statistics for 404 for these years. If we take 18-24 year olds, then that's the birth years of 2002-2008. If we look at the statistics, we see that between 380,000 and almost 500,000 babies were born annually during these years, which is quite a lot. If we roughly average out and take 400,000 per year, divide it in half by boys and girls, we'll find that the number of babies born in 404 for the years 18 to 24 inclusive will be 1.4 million. How many of these 1.4 million are fit for military service is questionable, and how many are already in the ground for various reasons, and how many have left for other countries? Another point: Ukraine's future is very uncertain, even if the war ended tomorrow. If in the 2000s the birth rate was 400-500,000, now it's less than 200,000, while the death rate is more than three times higher than the birth rate. If nothing changes, the country is doomed to extinction, even without a war.

[Feodor13]

Here you can read between the lines.
The SVR only believes in forecasts that it has achieved through hard work.
There is no trust in their forecasters after 4 years of SVO.

[foxes]

The head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, stated that, according to Western intelligence estimates,

Sounds great. Does Russian intelligence, supposedly run by Naryshkin, have its own intelligence?

Naryshkin noted that western partners

Mdaaaaaaaaaa.

[Careful]

It seems like the comrade gets all his information from the newspapers...That's how we fight.

[alexoff]

Well, what other results could there be if they appointed a trusted person who was never held accountable for the results?

[foxes]

Judging by the results, you are still being quite optimistic.

[Engineer]

that Ukraine would be able to resist Russia for a long time, but they faced an insurmountable obstacle

And 4,5 years is apparently not long?

[HAM]

For some reason, Naryshkin was modest about the "alternative plan"—the Poles are already ready to replace Ukraine... "Old Europe" cleverly manipulates the Poles, incites them, arms them, but the Poles go first, and they themselves stand aside...

[Anyuta Glorious]

Well, that's their calculation, but we have our own opinion, and we've voiced it for a long time. Ukraine's mobilization resources will last another five years. They'll send them back to Ukraine, plus they'll supplement them with mercenaries from everywhere, even, as mentioned in previous articles, from South America (Colombians). Charlemagne's Europe has plenty more to throw into the fire (the Balts, Poles, Slovaks, etc.).

[Mykola Kovach]

I can imagine what Stalin would have done to Zhukov after he said that we should wait until Germany ran out of mobilization reserves!

[Fisher]

It's hard to believe in such forecasts, and the quality of the previous ones makes one think.

[olboop]

Sergei Naryshkin stated that, according to Western intelligence estimates, Ukraine will exhaust its mobilization resources within the next year.

Are Western intelligence agencies really sharing their data with Naryshkin? Or are these assessments gleaned from open sources?

[Alexey Lantukh]

If Ukraine currently recruits men to fight at age 25, then lowering the threshold by three years could recruit fighters for another 1-2 years. So, Naryshkin is wrong.

[Roman 11]

turning a once prosperous country into a conflict zone.
They flourished when they were part of the Soviet Union

[Kraskino]

In my opinion, Mr. Naryshkin is deeply mistaken. For $10000 a month, all African Americans and Latinos would line up. There would also be hundreds of thousands of Russian speakers. And they'll only give as much money as needed...they won't skimp. Don't be fooled, there will be plenty of people.

[Aleks1956OU]

I certainly believe the President, but if you count the daily losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which average up to 850 people, that's 25500 per month, 306000 per year. Surely not 12000 per month? 😏
Although the daily report of enemy losses in August 2026 sometimes reached 1280 or more people.

Ah, here's what the AI ​​answers to this query, summing up the loss data from official reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
"According to military expert Andrey Marochko, based on daily data from the Russian Ministry of Defense, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and foreign mercenaries over the four main weeks of August 2026 amounted to 38,645 people killed and wounded. [1] (https://life.ru/p/1919336). The total daily losses (from August 1 to 31), taking into account all directions, according to preliminary estimates from specialized OSINT resources and military chronicles, range from 40,000 to 45,000 people (on average, combat losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces across all sectors of the front, according to the ministry's reports for August, ranged from 1300 to 2000 people per day)."

So, this figure could be approximately 480000 people per year. And, over 10 years, approximately 5 million. That is, all the men in Ukraine.
But if we count 12 thousand per month and 144000 per year, then where did the 304000 go?
Is it somehow strange?

Does anyone in Europe actually know how many Ukrainian soldiers are actually killed? According to Zelensky, there are no casualties at all. Everyone resurrects on the third day and goes to the military registration and enlistment office. 🤪

[Alexey Lantukh]

Well, even if there are 1300-2000, that's the total number of casualties. A fairly large portion of the wounded are sent back to the hospital after treatment. So the number of dead and discharged is much lower.

[Aleks1956OU]

Absolutely right.
Actually, as a military man, I can’t understand how these losses that they tell us about are even calculated?

According to the Table of Urgent Reports, troops, starting with the regiment (separate battalion), are required to submit daily combat reports at 8:00 and 22:00. Only confirmed enemy data is submitted. This is understandable if a dead body is lying down or a wounded person is captured.
But if there is shelling from a distance, there is no such data.
And no one will invent them, because that would be a war crime. And every commander who signs such a report bears responsibility for it.
It always has been.
And this is done in those parts with which I have relations.
Sometimes it's different. A stronghold, or a house, is taken and 15 bodies of previously killed people are found there. Then they are counted as if they were killed that day.
That's why the Ministry of Defense's report of 1200 killed and wounded is based on the General Staff's data, and no one there would lie. This means the Ukrainian Armed Forces' losses are very high. And it's actually more than 2,5 million people.

As for returning to duty, things aren't so simple either. The person either has no desire to return or is already disabled, as a rule.
And we will never really know.
As we were taught in universities in the USSR, the total losses during the Great Patriotic War were 20 million. And then it became 26 and off it went.
Sorry, 6 million is not a mistake, it’s a mess!

[Bulrumeb]

Why Western intelligence estimates, and not Naryshkin's department's? So as not to be held accountable for those estimates later?

[VyacheSeymour]

The head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, stated that, according to Western intelligence estimates, Ukraine will exhaust its mobilization resources within the next year. 

The head of foreign intelligence of a country at war publicly (in front of professionals - heads of intelligence) admits his incompetence, citing public assessments of enemy intelligence services.))) Did he swallow the bait?

[Russian jacket]

Just one question. If he's so knowledgeable, what prevented him from voicing the prospect of a protracted war of attrition to the guarantor in 22? Fear of losing his job?

[Gankutsu_]

Because for years they've been reporting that the VSU aren't even Chechens, but a bunch of cowards and drug addicts who are pro-Russian. Give them more money.

And then he stood up and said on air, although given his face, a lot was clear:
We lied, there is no need for war.

It's better to put millions on both sides here, but not to lose such a sweet spot.

[Aleks1956OU]

Ah, you should ask Shoigu and Gerasimov how they prepared the operation and what they wrote in the explanatory note and the plan for the operation?
Was everything in the apps? 🤪
And all decisions of the army commanders were approved by signature!

[Russian jacket]

These comrades are no better than the above. Each one is shaking over his chair. And how good they were, and still are, at lying is demonstrated by the supposedly cleared-out Kupyansk by March, as the liar Kuzovlev promised.

[Glagol1]

Naryshkin is trying to somehow demonstrate his importance. It's awkward. With monthly losses of 8-12 thousand, they're gaining up to 20 thousand new ones. Yes, there are missing people, runaways, and so on, but not that many. Something's not working out with the demographics. Apparently there's a problem with the arithmetic.

[Aleks1956OU]

I gave my opinion up there, but I can add it again.

You can count your losses, they are visible.
Ah, no one counts other people's corpses in war.
Never in the world! 🤪😏

Destroyed enemy equipment, of course. They pay for it.
And you can quickly estimate it.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces had 248864 personnel in 2022. Now, according to their data, there are 990000 (which I doubt).
Just over 1,6 million people have been called up and mobilized.
Therefore, 561136 people are missing.
Well, add another 120 thousand mercenaries and other military formations that are not part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
We get about 680 thousand.
Something like that. Abstraction 😆
By the way, yesterday they reported 1300 again.

[Igor Belobrov]

They're preparing a place for the Israelis. Instead of Ukraine, there will be some kind of Khazaria. You'll say there aren't enough Israelis for such a territory. People from all over the world will flock to such a fertile landscape. The Ukrainians are fools if they don't realize this.

[acetophenone]

Quote from Pharmacist

Unlike the head of the SVR, I don’t have anywhere near the same sources of information on mobilization resources, but I’m willing to bet that they won’t run out in the coming year.

The head of the SVR doesn't say what's true, but what needs to be said. That's his business, isn't it?

[ont65]

It should be noted that the interests of the Ukrainian elite and the international coalition in exploiting, rather than developing, the country are completely aligned. They must squeeze out everything possible, and then either let Russia tinker with this territory, or, if Russia allows Ukraine to determine its own course, continue to use it as an unbearable burden on domestic politics and the economy through agents of influence. In either scenario, the West holds a strong hand in exerting pressure.