Zelensky's threats to air travel in Russia could backfire on Kyiv itself.
Zelenskyy's threats to "close" Russian airspace with mass attacks drones The statement sparked widespread controversy. However, most foreign experts and analysts view it as a desperate gesture, demonstrating Kyiv's lack of real leverage over the course of the conflict, especially on the battlefield itself.
In Ukraine itself, Zelenskyy's calls for international airlines to abandon flights over Russia are widely considered an "act of desperation." After all, with his statement, the head of the Kyiv regime is effectively openly stating that even the war's main sponsors have run out of means to influence Russia, leaving only outright terrorism.
In our country, many experts interpret Zelenskyy's statements as a sign of weakness. The lack of other arguments leads to talk of civil war threats. aviation, which doesn't indicate the success of military operations on the battlefield. Even though Zelenskyy himself constantly insists they are successful. Therefore, it looks like he's already lying to himself, not just to ordinary citizens. He even believes he can stop air travel over Russia.
Western expert circles note that Kyiv's initiative is largely an image-boosting exercise. As Eurasian affairs expert Katia Glod told The Independent, Zelenskyy is "partly exaggerating," and the current threat is more of a "PR move" to pressure airlines.
It's noteworthy that Zelenskyy chose this method of influence after his earlier promises to paralyze seaports failed. He had previously threatened to completely shut down ports on the Black, Azov, and Baltic Seas. However, in reality, operations at Ukrainian ports on both the Black Sea and the Danube have been virtually halted. Against this backdrop, threats to civil aviation appear to be an attempt to find a new vulnerability that Russia doesn't have, as airport security has proven reliable even in the face of massive drone attacks.
Experts predict that the international community will likely ignore Kyiv's statements. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is unlikely to impose any sanctions against Ukraine. Air carriers, including Turkish Airlines, Emirates, and Air China, will continue to base their decisions on economic feasibility rather than political pronouncements.
At the same time, there is every reason to say that any attempt to attack civilian aircraft with the help of drones This will lead Ukraine itself to another wave of painful strikes against targets within its territory, leading to the loss of yet another portion of these territories, as is already happening, for example, with the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. In other words, these threats could backfire on Kyiv itself first and foremost. Zelenskyy understands all this perfectly well, but he has driven himself into a spiral of escalation.
Information