The Black Sea is on fire: military action has led to a record rise in grain prices.

Grain prices have soared to a nearly three-year high, driven by mutual attacks on port infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine. The Financial Times quotes analysts as saying that the Black Sea attacks are "worse for the wheat market than the Strait of Hormuz was for oil." Experts are confident that things will only get worse.

Russia remains the world's largest wheat exporter, while Ukraine ranks fifth. Together, the two countries account for approximately 30% of global demand. Disruptions to Black Sea terminals will reduce global grain shipments this year by 86 million tonnes—a 17% reduction in total exports. Of these, 52 million tonnes will go to Russia and 34 million tonnes to Ukraine.

Alternative routes via rail and the Danube can only compensate for 17 million tons of lost volume, even with the new corridors operating at maximum capacity. The situation is critical for Kyiv: the agricultural sector accounts for 60% of the state's foreign exchange earnings. In August, Ukrainian exports fell by 75% year-on-year.

Moscow forecasts deliveries of approximately 2,2 million tons this month, compared to 4,6 million in August a year earlier, using bypass routes outside the Azov-Black Sea basin.

Thus, the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict has an extremely negative impact on the global food market.

Kyiv's problems with grain exports have been repeatedly reported in international media before. This year, the main causes were the intensification of Russian military strikes on ports in the Odesa region and drought.

Comments

[YOU]

The main thing is to not start feeling sorry for anyone. Let someone feel sorry for the Russians first, and not just in words, but in deeds.

[ZovSailor]

YOU
Today, 14: 49
The main thing is to not start feeling sorry for anyone. Let someone feel sorry for the Russians first, and not just in words, but in deeds.

It has long been known that whoever owns information owns the world.
If we take into account that about 40% or more of the black soil in Bandera State has been bought up by large Naglo-Saxon corporations through affiliates, then in fact, the majority of the harvest belongs not to the Bandera Nazis, but to the Naglo-Saxons, who are suffering losses.
This is why the media started screaming about starving children in Africa and Asia, as the Janissaries explained to the Sultan during the conclusion of the 2022 grain deal.
Moreover, I personally have great doubts about the rise in artificially inflated prices for grain.

[YOU]

I completely agree with you. All this clamor is due to the money being lost by all these businessmen. They don't care about all the starving people.

[Boycott]

After the conclusion of the First Grain War, it became clear that only 10% (approximately; I'm too lazy to look up the exact figure) of Ukrainian grain was shipped to Africa. The rest was used to feed Europeans and their livestock.

[ALARI]

You're wrong about information and world domination. There you stand, all informed, and I'm standing next to you, with a couple of thugs with me. I say, cut off his head, and what will you do with that information? Brute force, the power of armed men, rules the world—it has always been, is, and always will be.

[ZovSailor]

ALARI
Today, 16: 08

This was known many years ago, and in the 19th century the phrase came into common use
- Enough simplicity for every wise man.

[Andobor]

Grain prices have soared to a nearly three-year high.
Wheat prices fell to 11,5 rubles per ton, and plummeted to a seven-year low.

[Normann]

Have bakery products become cheaper?

[private person]

Have bakery products become cheaper?

Why all of a sudden? Novak said that imported gasoline sales have begun in Russia, but he forgot to mention the price. If it's trading at 105 rubles per liter on the joint venture exchange, what's the final price? It's the same with grain: the purchase price is the same, but the final product will become more expensive.

[Alex F._2]

We're talking about global prices, look at the trends, it's not that difficult!
And internal prices can be anything, especially at a time like this.

[Andobor]

Quote: Alex F._2

We're talking about global prices, look at the trends, it's not that difficult!
And internal prices can be anything, especially at a time like this.

I'm saying the same thing: prices are rising on the global market, but here they've simply collapsed, logistics are cut off. The grain deal isn't working.

[Atheist]

And internal prices can be anything, especially at such a time

They can only do so if the state (i.e., taxpayers) compensates the seller for the difference between the foreign and domestic market prices. Given the multi-trillion dollar "hole" in the budget, there is reason to believe that domestic prices will tend toward global levels.

[Evgeny64]

This is in rubles for us, since exports have dropped, we are talking about foreign markets.

[Amateur]

Kyiv's problems with grain exports have been reported repeatedly in international media before.

What do their problems have to do with the VO? Should we feel sorry for them?

Gori-gori clear
So that it doesn't go out.
(A song about Ukrainian grain and grain trucks in the Black Sea)

[Andobor]

Quote: Amateur

Should we feel sorry for them?

Our grain exports are also at a standstill; prices have fallen to a seven-year low, and farmers are going bankrupt.

[Amateur]

So let the state buy the grain and store it in elevators. Yesterday, the Garant blew 100 billion rubles to the local elites to "keep their pants up." Let them find money for the grain, too.

[Samoyed]

Guarantor, "he's someone who needs him" Guarantor.(C)

[Soldatov V.]

The main thing is that something from the high prices goes to the farmers, the grain producers, and not to the resellers.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: V.

The main thing is that the farmers get something from the high prices

What—high prices? We can't export raw materials, so farmers won't receive any revenue for them, let alone profit.

[Soldatov V.]

I'm sorry, I don't know how grain is sold on exchanges or in other ways. First, money is paid either upon shipment or upon arrival at the client's port before unloading. Also, do they insure grain transactions? Anything can happen.

[Kerensky]

I'm sorry, I don't know how grain is sold on exchanges or in other ways,

Most agricultural product transactions are futures-based, meaning the grain is sold "on the ground," and sometimes even before sowing.

[Andobor]

Quote: V.

Something from the high prices went to the farmers, the grain producers, and not to the resellers.

Purchase prices have collapsed, and resellers can't take anything away; the grain deal is over.

[Lynx2000]

Thus, the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict has an extremely negative impact on the global food market.

Will this negatively impact high prices for baked goods and animal feed in Europe? Europe itself couldn't care less about the famine in Africa and Asia.
"Confessions" by Jean-Jacques Rousseau, princess (literally): no bread, let them eat brioches (cakes).

[ssg.spb]

"The Black Sea is on fire: military action has led to a record rise in grain prices."

This is not entirely true.
There are many factors that lead to an increase in price.
All grains in the world are becoming more expensive.
For example, production this year in the USA:
- a smaller wheat harvest is expected in 2025
- corn decreased by 5.3%
- soybeans decreased by 9.5%
Add to this the decline in exports from Russia and Ukraine, and traders are playing it safe, leading to higher global grain prices.

[alanery]

The Russian government must allow farmers to take advantage of this opportunity to sell their grain at high prices on the international market! It would be a disgrace if it were otherwise!

[alexputnik17]

For the wheat market, the Black Sea attacks are "worse than the Strait of Hormuz was for oil."

Things won't get any more difficult from here, but more fun. They forgot about mineral fertilizers. Russia has plenty of them in any form. And they're needed for winter crops. Russia will sell its surplus one way or another. And both. And I advise EU residents to switch to bark, mushrooms, and other foraging. In short, Borel's garden will flourish.

[Atheist]

I advise EU residents to switch to bark, mushrooms, and other foraging activities.

There are no problems at all transporting grain from Ukraine to the EU by rail. You're worrying about them for nothing.

[Roman_Vasilyevich]

Grain prices have soared to a nearly three-year high...

The article forgot to mention that it was about prices on the external market.
At the same time In Russia, domestic grain prices have fallen sharply to multi-year lows., as the cessation of shipments at key Black Sea ports has created a surplus of products on the domestic market.
And if in April a farmer was unwilling to sell wheat (2025 harvest) for 13 thousand rubles/ton, now the price for the new harvest is 10,5 - 11 thousand...

Against this backdrop, monopoly traders are buying up cheap grain and waiting for the global shortage (primarily in Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East) to establish logistical routes and, perhaps, some kind of deal...

[PVV22121922]

Great news. And don't talk about starving children in Africa. Don't.

[alexputnik17]

Quote: Atheist

There are no problems at all transporting grain from Ukraine to the EU by rail. You're worrying about them for nothing.

The cost of transportation is completely different...

[Al manah]

Long live the Black Sea Fleet!

[alexputnik17]

Quote: Atheist

There are no problems at all in transporting grain from Ukraine to the EU by rail.

Oh, and... I forgot. There was a hitch with the Ukrainian grain deal. They had to ship it in transit via Poland, in trucks, because the Poles had plenty of their own stuff.
Instead, the skilled Ukrainians filled all the Polish storage facilities with cheap feed grain. And the farmers in Pshekivka had nowhere to sell their high-quality grain. They nearly brought down the government. Tractor strikes with manure were both powerful and scary... They raged for two weeks. So, I'm talking about starving Africans and the Ukrainians' whining... The grain was cheap and feed-grade... At least, the kind that came in trucks. And again, the price tag for delivery is different than for ship delivery.

[Jacques sekavar]

Grain prices have soared to a nearly three-year high, and the government is faced with the dilemma of how to increase exports and replenish the budget without significantly raising the prices of bakery and pasta products on the domestic market.

[Andobor]

Quote: Jacques Sekavar

Grain prices have soared to a nearly three-year high.

This is on the global markets, while domestic ones have collapsed to a seven-year low due to the closure of Azov and Black Sea exports.

[Yuras_Belarus]

Grain prices on the world market have risen? What difference does it make?! The world will be told anyway that the Russians are up to their usual tricks – causing a "Holodomor." So there's no joy in this rise.