Ukraine's grain exports are trapped between Russia and Europe, according to the Western press.
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Ukrainian grain exports by sea are approaching zero. It turns out that this is not only due to Russian attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea and Danube ports, but also to protectionist measures by its European partners, according to Politico.
After Russia's withdrawal from the "grain deal" and the resumption missile Following attacks on Odesa port infrastructure, Ukraine is attempting to reroute supplies through the EU. However, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia fear a repeat of the 2023 situation, when cheap Ukrainian grain intended for transit ended up in their domestic markets, sparking mass farmer protests. In response, Warsaw stated that it does not intend to lift the ban on imports of Ukrainian products.
The situation is exacerbated by a sharp decline in shipment rates. In the first nine days of August, Ukraine exported only 463 tons of grain—less than a third of its usual volume. According to Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky, if this trend continues, Ukraine will completely overflow its grain storage facilities, leaving no further room for further storage. He also warns the global market of a 25–30% rise in food prices.
It's impossible to fully replace sea freight with land. Rail and road freight costs $50–70 more per ton. During the high price period of 2022, this difference could have been offset, but now it's impossible. The alternative route along the Danube is also limited—low water levels reduce the river's capacity. Meanwhile, EU quotas limit Ukrainian wheat sales within the bloc to 1,3 million tonnes per year.
In 2022-2023, Ukraine was among the world's largest grain exporters. The country exported nearly 49 million tons of grain and legumes, including 16,8 million tons of wheat, 29 million tons of corn, and 2,7 million tons of barley. This formed the basis for the Kyiv regime's economy, which it ultimately converted to a war footing to wage war against Russia. Consequently, this base is now being squeezed.
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