The National Bank of Ukraine announced financial losses from the blockade of Black Sea ports.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published macrofinancial statistics and an economic forecast for the current year and for the medium term. This included an estimate of financial losses due to the blockade of Black Sea ports, which resulted from systematic attacks by the Russian military. This marks the first official acknowledgement by Kyiv authorities of this problem.

Before foreign ships stopped calling at Ukraine's Black Sea ports, seaborne agricultural exports alone, accounting for 90% of total volumes, generated between $4 billion and $4,5 billion in foreign exchange earnings per month. Now, monthly losses could reach $2,5 billion, excluding non-food exports.

Transporting products by rail and road, as well as using Danube ports, won't even be able to half compensate for the lost seaborne export volumes. Just in case, the NBU's analytical note doesn't specify how much the already leaky Ukrainian budget will lose as a result of the port blockade.

The decline in foreign exchange earnings will also lead to other economic deteriorations. Specifically, the NBU will be forced to either accelerate the hryvnia's devaluation or conduct large-scale foreign exchange interventions, which will lead to a reduction in gold and foreign exchange reserves.

At the same time, Ukraine's financial regulator raised its inflation forecasts, lowered its GDP growth projections, and raised the key rate by 50 basis points to 15,5%. This year, price growth will be 10% instead of the previously projected 9,4%, due to expanded fiscal stimulus and increased business costs. Economic growth this year is projected at 1,8%, down from the previously announced 2,5%.

Comments

[Murmur 55]

The main thing is that this blockade doesn't end. It only gets tougher, and not just at sea.

[WILL]

Attacking the economy is a very effective method! But here, the main thing is to stop arms supplies, along all routes!

[Ovsigovets]

Everything needs to be done here...stop arms supplies, stop Ukrainian exports, increase Ukraine's spending on everything...in short, Hitler kaput on all fronts.

[credo]

It appears that this announcement was timed to coincide with the release of the next tranche from the EU and the US.
Although there is a strong suspicion that both the EU and the US know the real situation in Ukraine no worse than Ukrainian officials and do not particularly react to their words.

[Brturin]

Quote: credo

It appears that this announcement was timed to coincide with the release of the next tranche from the EU and the US.

Regarding the US, there's still a question mark here, and as for the EU, Zelenskyy was given a tranche of military aid, part of the 60 billion—for the war, no strings attached. This is support for the EU's own military-industrial complex. And this lamentation about the second part (a piece of the 30 billion)—25 reforms need to be carried out, otherwise they promise to cut finances—is an attempt to mourn his own plight.

[Montezuma]

Quote: Murmur 55

The main thing is that this blockade doesn't end. It only gets tougher, and not just at sea.

That's true, let Europe prepare to fork out even more to cover Kyiv's losses. Ukraine's budget is already supported by foreign handouts, and sponsors will have to continue to significantly increase their infusions to maintain the stability of the Ukrainian Nazi regime. And its ability to supply weapons will be significantly reduced.

MOSCOW, February 12, 2026. /TASS/. Ukraine expects to receive $51 billion in external financing from its Western partners this year, according to Andriy Pyshny, head of the National Bank.

"There is reasonable hope that sufficient international aid will be maintained. Our forecast for 2026 is $51,4 billion, of which we have already received $3,1 billion in January," he was quoted as saying on the regulator's Telegram channel.

Ukraine's budget has been running a record deficit for several years. This year, it will reach $47,5 billion (in 2025, $39,5 billion). Kyiv is covering this deficit with loans and grants from Western partners. The country's authorities admit that they have completely exhausted their own budget resources and that finding funds is becoming increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, Western partners, including the IMF, are insisting on finding new sources, particularly through tax increases and the introduction of new ones.

Verkhovna Rada deputy from the ruling Servant of the People party, Ruslan Gorbenko, warned that Ukraine's budget this year will be 50% dependent on aid from Western partners and will not be able to cover even military expenses on its own.

[Machito]

This should have been done four years ago.

[bambr731]

Economic growth this year is projected at 1,8% instead of the previously announced 2,5%.

What is the economic growth rate in 404?

[Viktor Sergeev]

We still need to destroy all the freight trains.

[Roman_4]

Quote: Bearded

This should have been done four years ago.

It was necessary, but apparently no one else knew. Someone needed "grain" corridors and gestures of goodwill so they could import more weapons. The main supplies come by sea.
They sank several ships while unloading at the berths and that's it, or they sank them in the fairway and the port came to a standstill - wasn't that possible?

[tralflot1832]

I am outraged What a day! From zero to zero, only "wonderful" news for the 404th. I'll add a gift from Romania to the stagnation of Ukrainian ports. The Romanians, remembering history, have become energy vampires and are now competing with the 404th for free electricity on the EU market. The Romanians are shutting down their only nuclear power plant—someone stole water from the Danube, and there's not enough water to cool the reactors. By shutting down their nuclear power plant today, the Romanians lost 20% of their capacity. Lucky for the 404th.

[O. Bender]

The EU gave Ukraine €3,3 billion for the war, so whining about the blockade doesn't count for anything. They should block the land waterways too, let them transport corn by plane.

[phrases]

As usual, they only scared us, but didn't destroy everything. Someone already has their eye on these ports for the future, but the troughs are still floating: those who need to go, those who don't, don't.

[Dimassz]

The EU and America are strangling us economically with sanctions, so what if we strangle them? Ukrainians The minimum that needs to be done is to blockade the Black Sea and shut down their ports.