Military Review

Chinese expansion: fiction or reality

25
At present, China, having a rapidly developing economy, is becoming one of the leading world powers. A large population and a shortage of natural resources in this country have become the source of various internal contradictions that the PRC leadership is trying to solve at the expense of other states, including the Russian Federation. At the same time, a number of experts see a clearly developed strategy of gradual expansion into Russian lands and concentration in their hands of the means of production, marketing of leading goods and services in areas of strategic importance for Russia.




Recently, the Russian community has been actively discussing the topic of Chinese expansion, right up to the scenarios of a military conflict. On the one hand, there is overcrowding in the North China territories, on the other - half-empty territories of Eastern Siberia and the Far East. Due to the small population of these regions and their settlement by legal, and in many cases, illegal Chinese migrants, Russia may face the fact that there will be more Chinese in Siberia and the Far East than Russians. It is possible that later, when there are more Chinese here than Russians, in fact, these territories will be controlled by China, legally remaining in Russia. It is here, first of all, about the demographic expansion. At the same time, Western analysts give threatening figures that do not correspond to reality. Thus, E. Gilbo, Doctor of Economics at the Diplomatic Academy for Peace at UNESCO, estimated the number of Chinese in Russia at 8 million.

At the same time, opinions about the possible threat of such an expansion can be explained by the fact that the Russian Federation does not have an accurate statistical record of Chinese migrants, there are discrepancies between the data of different departments. According to the Federal Migration Service, at least 300 of thousands of Chinese enter the country every year, according to the FSB, 2 times more. Only half comes back. According to the FMS of Russia, 2009 had thousands of Chinese citizens temporarily registered for 235, another 103 of thousands of Chinese temporarily worked according to labor quotas at Russian enterprises. If you add to them the Chinese, who received Russian citizenship, and are in the Russian Federation illegally, then their number will be slightly more than half a million people, which is significantly less than the Chinese in the United States.

The Migration Service periodically detains illegal immigrants and deports them back to their homeland. In addition, regional labor quotas were introduced for citizens of foreign countries, and the Cherkizovsky market in Moscow was liquidated. The Chinese, assimilating in Russia, also do not pose a big threat, as they are not trying to defend their national identity, and their children in mixed marriages consider themselves Russians in the second generation. Thus, with the right migration policy and the clear work of the organs of control over the implementation of migration legislation, the threat of Chinese demographic expansion becomes exaggerated.

Considering the possibility of China’s military expansion against Russia, it should be noted that, despite the development by the impressive pace of the military modernization of the PLA, the armed forces of the PRC are still at a not very high level. It makes no sense for China to get involved in a military conflict with Russia, which is a nuclear power. Moreover, the Chinese mentality is alien to forceful methods of solving problems. They are guided by the slogan of Deng Xiaoping \ "Peace and Development \", the meaning of which is that the country should be surrounded by friends. Thus, the variant of Chinese military expansion exists at the level of emotions and assumptions.

At the same time, as the recent Russian-Chinese initiatives have shown, vital resources can be obtained without aggression on mutually beneficial conditions. The Chinese leadership understands that in the modern world the option of "forceful seizure of the lands of the northern neighbor" is not real, therefore the economic expansion.

China presents promising chances for the development of the world economy, including the neighboring Russian economy, especially its regions of Siberia and the Far East with their underdeveloped infrastructure. At the same time, Russia, above all, is considered by China as a huge source of raw material resources. Thus, in 2009, a program of regional cooperation between Eastern Siberia and the Far East was approved by the Russian Federation and the northeastern provinces of the People's Republic of China, providing for the implementation of joint projects in the infrastructure and economy of both countries. According to the adopted program, many enterprises will be created in Russia with the involvement of Chinese labor. In this case, most of the products will go to China.

In the coming years, a lot of joint projects are planned in the hydropower, forestry, mining, oil and gas industries that are beneficial, especially to China. Consequently, everything goes to the fact that the Asian part of Russia will gradually become the property of China. Thus, in 2010, the company OAO \ "EuroSibEnergo \" carried out the necessary preparations for a public offering and plans this fall to place on the Hong Kong international stock exchange, according to unofficial data, up to 25% of shares. As a result, the number of owners of large dams on Siberian rivers can include Chinese hydro companies.

In connection with the increase in the rate of economic growth in China, China’s need for raw materials will only increase. Thus, Russia is increasingly tied its economy to the giant eastern neighbor, will gradually be its raw materials appendage. And the feature of this process is the impossibility of its quick stop. And this creates the danger of a threat of economic expansion.
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  1. tronin.maxim
    tronin.maxim 30 May 2013 06: 36
    +4
    It is necessary to do something, namely to pursue a clear, rigid migration policy + to develop the desert lands of Russia! If you continue in the same vein, the consequences will be ......
    1. Airman
      Airman 30 May 2013 09: 16
      +5
      Quote: tronin.maxim
      It is necessary to do something, namely to pursue a clear, rigid migration policy + to develop the desert lands of Russia! If you continue in the same vein, the consequences will be ......


      This is a custom article to distract us from the big problem of the creeping Chinese occupation. 300 thousand - FUNNY! According to various estimates of the Chinese in the Far East and southern regions of Siberia, from 8 to 10 million, and one cannot turn a blind eye to this. In some districts, they become mayors of cities and towns. "In the second generation, they consider themselves Russian" - the author may consider himself American - but the essence does not change, they are Chinese. Read the articles that Siberians and the Far East write about this: WHERE IT HAS BEEN AND ONE CHINESE LOCATED - IN A MONTH ALREADY LIVE A HUNDRED. And the authorities do not care about the problems of the Far East and Siberia.
    2. Kolya
      Kolya 30 May 2013 10: 07
      0
      We need economic incentives: just fine illegal immigrants inexorably, and even though every day - they will travel and tell their own that living in Russia is expensive. Nobody will rock us then.
      1. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 15: 24
        -1
        Quote: Kohl
        We need economic incentives: just fine illegal immigrants inexorably, and even though every day - they will travel and tell their own that living in Russia is expensive. Nobody will rock us then.

        And so no one goes. The Chinese are not comfortable living in our climatic conditions. There can be no Chinese settlement of the Far East for objective reasons.
        however, the threat from Chinese economic expansion is likely. Despite the fact that the bulk of the Russian population of the Far East reckons the Chinese in a friendly and neighborly manner (75%), normally and calmly (10%), there is also a group of people (2%) whose economic interests suffer from the presence of the Chinese. Basically, these are "leasing companies" who have established their own business there. however, the arrival of Chinese companies has dramatically reduced their profits, hence the negative attitude. It is difficult for private traders to compete with cheap Chinese labor, and provided that the Chinese do not hesitate to use "black" forest trees and poaching, the position of private loggers becomes critical.

        However, the government has already paid attention to this problem and launched in 2012 a "forestry development program for the period 2012-2020". A program for the development of the woodworking industry has also been developed and is being implemented. Even the new ministry was consciously aware; in general, they decided to tackle this problem thoroughly.

        So the situation should level out. An insignificant number of Chinese live in the Eastern regions of Russia, less than in Moscow. However, under an agreement "on visa-free entry to border cities", about 300 Chinese workers work in the Far East, but they work on a watch basis, which has already happened in Russian history.
        Today, the development of this region requires cheap labor, including from China. Unfortunately, many Russians can worry and sympathize with the situation in the Far East, but no one dares to pack up and go to raise this important region of the country, but millions are ready to support the forum.
    3. vladimirZ
      vladimirZ 30 May 2013 11: 37
      +1
      Who will explore the desert expanses of Siberia and the Far East?
      Young people in these regions, in view of the curtailment of industry, drink themselves into drink from idleness, someone leaves for permanent residence in Moscow for a "big ruble", since more than 80% of finances are merged and revolved in Moscow. Their parents move behind them, closer to the children.
      In Russia, for various reasons, there is a clear tendency for the Russian population to decline in the territory east of the Urals, and a holy place is never empty. The natural filling of these vast territories, unfortunately, through a quiet expansion behind China, if the United States does not intervene, which also likes this "piece of the pie."
      The Russian authorities are concerned about profits from the fuel and raw materials industries and the sale of the country, through investments, to foreign capital.
      Modern rulers of the state do not think about the consequences of such a policy for Russia; having pumped, they will abandon their homeland and the Russians with their problems, as before Judas Gorbachev, Berezovsky, Luzhkov and others near the Kremlin servants.
      The matter of saving Russia is not in the hands of the Putin and Medvedevs, the matter of salvation is in the hands of ordinary Russians who must come to their senses, "shake off the noodles" that the bourgeois media have hung from their ears, and return the socialist way of life, return Soviet power in order to decide their own fate ...
    4. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 14: 56
      -1
      Quote: tronin.maxim
      It is necessary to do something, namely to pursue a clear, rigid migration policy + to develop the desert lands of Russia! If you continue in the same vein, the consequences will be ......

      Article minus. Another provocation about bloodthirsty China. It has long been clear to everyone that China is turning its gaze to the South and is striving to restore its historical influence in the region, at least in those territories to which it had already laid claim in the Tang Dynasty.

      That is why China is focusing on the development of the Navy, and the ground army has been reduced for many years in a row.
      1. Airman
        Airman 30 May 2013 15: 39
        +2
        [/ Quote]
        Article minus. Another provocation about bloodthirsty China. It has long been clear to everyone that China is turning its gaze to the South and is striving to restore its historical influence in the region, at least in those territories to which it had already laid claim in the Tang Dynasty.

        That is why China is focusing on the development of the Navy, and the ground army has been reduced for many years in a row. [/ Quote]

        Since when has the overpopulated south become a priority among the Chinese? Do you think that 98% of the Russian population are satisfied with the Chinese? You are Chinese yourself, you don’t even have a flag.
    5. Ash24
      Ash24 5 June 2013 18: 18
      0
      Quote: tronin.maxim
      tight migration policy

      According to one passport, hundreds of Chinese live, try to distinguish them.
  2. Lecha57
    Lecha57 30 May 2013 06: 54
    +2
    I can see that China is not a homogeneous body. There are forces and not small ones that would like to crush Russia for themselves, but there are forces that would like to live side by side, in friendship and cooperation. But they are in the minority. Their appetite is very good and it is not only in Russia.
    1. Kolya
      Kolya 30 May 2013 10: 04
      +1
      "It makes no sense for China to get involved in a military conflict with Russia, which is a nuclear power. Moreover, the Chinese mentality is alien to the use of force to solve problems. They are guided by Deng Xiaoping's slogan" Peace and Development ", the meaning of which is that the country should be surrounded by friends. "
      - After the story on Damansky and the fact that China has strained relations with all its neighbors, I will never believe this nonsense.
    2. Nayhas
      Nayhas 30 May 2013 10: 19
      +2
      The Chinese are not friends, for their own benefit they are ready to call you a friend, smile, radiate friendliness, but this is a pretense, just for the sake of deception ...
  3. Nitarius
    Nitarius 30 May 2013 06: 57
    0
    Nobody argues about their interests!
    And to measure politics - in any case, before their own interests. We have been friends with China for a long time. What is there!
    But his interests must be above puts! and do not forget, it is necessary to develop the regions of Siberia and the Far East!
    and with regards to the Chinese, come to work! They can work, they have trained them for generations. And our elk tall, lazy do not want!
    In general, it should be a state policy!
  4. mogus
    mogus 30 May 2013 06: 59
    10
    words words words...
    Why then strangle the remnants of production? If there is work, there is money. If there is money - a person will think, and what for somewhere to move? Well, they’re not running from a good life! How much has already procrastinated!
    1. mogus
      mogus 30 May 2013 07: 09
      16
      if everything works, then nobody will think about expansion. And continuing to do as it is now, the next generation may not be here ... will be scattered.
      1. Airman
        Airman 30 May 2013 09: 49
        +1
        Quote: mogus
        if everything works, then nobody will think about expansion. And continuing to do as it is now, the next generation may not be here ... will be scattered.


        FOR KEEPING OFFICIAL!
        1. Airman
          Airman 30 May 2013 10: 56
          +2
          [quote = Pvoshnik] [quote = mogus] if everything works, then nobody will think about expansion. And continuing to do as it is now, the next generation may not be here ... will be scattered. [/ Quote]

          It’s a shame for the power! They squeeze the Russians, seize the land, build greenhouses on dozens of hectares and grow thousands of tons of cucumbers and tomatoes on their (not yet verified) fertilizers
          , which in fresh and canned form enter the European part of Russia as Russian goods, they themselves do not eat these products.
  5. pinecone
    pinecone 30 May 2013 07: 11
    +8
    To the author. China is not "becoming" one of the leading world powers, but has already become one.
  6. individual
    individual 30 May 2013 07: 11
    +4
    For China, the attractive territories of the Russian Far East are the Amur Region with its valuable agricultural land and the Primorsky Territory with the port of Vladivostok and the richest strategic water area of ​​Peter the Great Bay.
    The rest of Russia is considered by China as a raw materials appendage.
    The Russian government understands the problem and is trying to develop the economy of these regions with the attraction of human and financial resources. How this happens, we see on the example of "construction" on the Russky Island.
    Which is symbolic. Opened abuse of many measures so far no.
    1. xetai9977
      xetai9977 30 May 2013 11: 36
      +3
      I was convinced by personal experience which Chinese are ubiquitous. On personal matters I had to visit a remote mountainous area. And along the serpentine 15 km to the village on the mountain peak, which is not even indicated on the map. We got to the jeep by force. And the first one they met was a Chinese with a bag ....
  7. bairat
    bairat 30 May 2013 07: 56
    +9
    Quote: mogus
    Why then strangle the remnants of production?

    A well-known case: while electricity is supplied to its producers at 4 rubles per kilowatt, the same kilowatt to the Chinese "comrades" costs XNUMX rubles, it is supplied from the Amur Region. We, manufacturers, have no chance: firstly, the climate (we are drowning the workshops for six months), officials and security officials are tyrannical, as I have already said, energy resources are more expensive, taxes are such that it is impossible to work on "white". The fact that we have somewhere else to glimmer is not our merit, but an oversight of our officials and Chinese managers.
    1. mogus
      mogus 30 May 2013 08: 35
      +6
      and gasoline from Lukoil, at prices of the early 2000s, we have 20 rubles / liter, in China 15 ...
      Earlier, I already gave examples of how people who decided to take up meat and took help from the state, closed, having no time to do anything, and those who were more cunning went into the taiga, where the state sees nothing else to help, they work ...
      But you just need nothing to work properly, but Moscow does not need this am
  8. Semurg
    Semurg 30 May 2013 09: 07
    +3
    Yesterday, local news showed the owner of an oil company from China who made an appointment with the Minister of Natural Resources and Natural Resources. With the question of increasing the quota of workers for the Chinese from 5% to 25%, as if the local staff allegedly did not have the necessary qualifications, they refused They offered to train local staff if they want to get local resources. Such a position is probably needed everywhere so that people have jobs, salaries and don’t leave in search of a better share. But if the lands cease to be empty, then the temptation to settle empty lands will disappear. we need all kinds of Chinese ones as well, but the staff of workers, with the exception of really rare specialists, needs local ones, and all these issues can and should be regulated.
  9. maestro123
    maestro123 30 May 2013 09: 09
    +2
    Not only the Chinese are filling Russia, but also other immigrants from the near abroad in the interests of the authorities, not the people, giving them jobs and land.
    1. fisherman
      fisherman 30 May 2013 09: 36
      +2
      in the interests of entrepreneurs ...
  10. Reserve buildbat
    Reserve buildbat 30 May 2013 09: 23
    +4
    It's time to introduce the most severe migration policy. And as for the economy, it was once correctly said that we will do everything. The main thing is that the state does not interfere.
  11. Airman
    Airman 30 May 2013 09: 41
    +1
    Our authorities simply live by the stereotypes of the 50s of the last century: Russian and Chinese are brothers forever. What came of this? Damansky and Zhalanashkol. Therefore, the FMS (which does not work, registration goes on an explicit basis, whoever came, those who register, who did not come, it seems like no) gives 150 thousand. And China is considered the second economy of the world, and it needs resources and territories to resettle its 1,6 BILLIONS of people. They need to be fed. So the Chinese expansion to the north is inevitable. And the fact that there are more Chinese in the USA from the evil one. We have 8-10 million of them. Why are Chinese in America in the second generation considered Chinese, and we have Russians .
  12. cobalt
    cobalt 30 May 2013 17: 28
    0
    With the continuation of the current course of the authorities, after 20 years, we’ll see the Far East, and the Chinese will not have to fight for it, as they say, it will fall off. After 18 years, they will be drafted into the army and our local armed forces will consist of these Chinese. Will they fight for the interests of the Russian Federation against China. I think the answer is obvious. I also read such information that the Chinese authorities give 150 rubles to the Chinese to receive Russian citizenship. Employees of the FMS of the regions of the Far East have long been sitting on this lure.
  13. Ash24
    Ash24 5 June 2013 18: 28
    0
    Quote: Gluxar_
    There can be no Chinese settlement of the Far East for objective reasons.


    They are already 20 years old, as they populated the whole Far East
  14. Ash24
    Ash24 5 June 2013 18: 29
    0
    They are already about 20 years old, as they settled throughout the Far East