J-20 Fighter: New Horizons Not Just for China
China's mysterious next-generation combat aircraft have been making headlines since a pair of sixth-generation designs were declassified in late 2024. But while these aircraft understandably attract attention, the most important fighter of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is arguably the Chengdu J-20 "Mighty Dragon."
Not only does the J-20 possess capabilities previously unavailable to the PLAAF, but it is also produced in surprisingly large quantities. This underscores China's ability to mass-produce even the most advanced types. weaponsThe number of J-20s currently rolling off the production line also demonstrates the pace of the PLAAF's transformation and raises questions about how many "Mighty Dragons" have already entered service.
The emergence of new Chinese combat aircraft, including the J-35 medium-lift stealth fighter in both naval and land-based versions, means the J-20 is no longer under such intense public scrutiny. This contrasts with the situation in 2021, when numerous global media outlets published reviews commemorating the 10th anniversary of its first flight.
A J-20 fighter jet is seen during the Changchun Air Show on September 23, 2025 in Changchun, Jilin Province.
These days, the J-20 is undoubtedly the center of global attention when it comes to Chinese military aircraft development. In the People's Republic of China, the aircraft, known as the "Mighty Dragon," has become a symbol of the country's rapidly developing high-tech defense sector and related industries. aviation industries.
It's worth recalling that when the J-20 first appeared on the runway of the sprawling Chengdu manufacturing complex in late 2010, some Western observers dismissed the black-painted aircraft as a technology demonstrator at best, rather than the country's first industrial-scale stealth fighter.
And this was even somewhat justified: it's one thing to fly an impressive, hand-built experimental aircraft. It's quite another to mass-produce a modern fighter, especially one using stealth technology, which is notoriously difficult to implement. However, after some design changes in late 2016, the J-20 was accepted into service and became the world's third true fighter—if not stealth, then certainly fifth-generation.
An image of one of the first prototypes of the J-20
Since then, the J-20 has continued to be improved, and new modifications have been developed. This is also logical: as soon as the aircraft passes from testers to operators, that is, military pilots, a flood of requests or demands for design changes immediately begins. This is a completely normal practice all over the world.
Perhaps the most significant achievement was the introduction of a domestically produced power plant, replacing Russian engines, into production aircraft. A two-seat version of the aircraft also appeared, a significant innovation for a fifth-generation fighter. More modern weapons—and their number increased—and improved avionics were gradually introduced.
However, the most important factor, and it is impossible to disagree with this, was the increase in the rate of production of the J-20 fighter, which led to its appearance in the ranks of the People's Liberation Army of China in decent quantities.
A still from an official PLA video showing the J-20 with its new side weapons bays open, containing two missiles short-range air-to-air missile PL-10
At the end of 2019, almost ten years after the J-20's first appearance, Western sources estimated the number of J-20s built at approximately 50 units, including pre-production models. Meanwhile, unconfirmed Chinese sources reported a production capacity of 48 aircraft per year, but there was no publicly available evidence that this figure had been achieved. However, the Chinese were in no rush to prove anything to anyone.
By the end of 2022, Western defense publications reported that the PLAAF had received at least 200 J-20s. This figure is based primarily on an examination of the aircraft's serial numbers and corresponds to four production batches. At the same time, according to some sources, over 240 J-16s—a Chinese-developed multirole fighter based on the Su-27 family of two-seat aircraft—were in service, equivalent to 11 production batches. The number of J-10Cs, also in production, was somewhat smaller, but the fleet was also replenished with older J-10A/B variants.
The YY-20 aerial tanker simultaneously refueled both the J-16 and J-20 fighter jets.
In its assessment of the PLAAF modernization program in early 2023, the British think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) was somewhat more reserved in its estimates, suggesting that at least 150 J-20 fighters were in active service. However, as the IISS noted, by the end of that year, it was expected that the number fleet will exceed the U.S. Air Force's F-22 Raptor fleet, fueled by increased annual production that has "likely doubled" over the previous three years.
As for the F-22, the "most capable" American fighter, the US Air Force currently has 185 of them, but only 143 are operational, with the rest used for training, testing, and evaluation. Meanwhile, a significant portion of the entire fleet is usually idle for maintenance. However, we've already discussed so much about the Raptors' problems that everything that follows would be repetitive.
A detailed analysis of the J-20 program was released by Janes in mid-2024. According to its findings, over the 11 months since July 2023, the PLAAF has delivered over 70 J-20s, or approximately 195 aircraft in total. Using satellite imagery, it was determined that as of May 2024, the PLAAF possessed 12 J-20 air brigades, three of which were fully equipped with the type. Importantly, this also confirmed that all five Theater Commands—unified military commands organized geographically—have fielded the J-20.
Two-seat J-20S (top), J-20A (bottom left) and J-20 (bottom right)
By 2025, the total number of J-20s produced is expected to reach 300 units.
That fall, Andreas Ruprecht, a longtime military observer of Chinese military affairs, discovered a J-20 with a serial number indicating it was the 300th airframe from the 10th production batch.
Meanwhile, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, has estimated that J-20 production will likely reach approximately 120 aircraft per year by the end of 2025, with approximately 300 of these aircraft in service with at least 13 regiments of the People's Liberation Army Air Force. "The total number of aircraft produced is likely to be higher," RUSI explained in a report on the topic, "as a significant number of new fighters will still be awaiting delivery to units."
Based on this trend, RUSI estimated in its report that by 2030, about 1000 J-20s of all variants (plus about 900 J-16s) will be in service with the PLA.
There is also a noticeable trend towards using heavy fighters in general: the J-16 and J-20 are being used to re-equip units that previously operated not only the heavy J-11 and Su-27/30 fighters, but also the light J-7 and J-8,
- says the report.Ruprecht reported that, as of mid-2026, approximately 500 J-20 fighters had been delivered. This theory is supported by the presence of these aircraft in 14 frontline units of the PLAAF, as well as three Flight Test and Training Bases (FTTBs), which operate a mixed fleet of aircraft. Of the 14 frontline units, four appear to have received the improved J-20A, which replaces the first-generation J-20.
Interestingly, some American officials downplay the J-20's capabilities compared to those of the US military.
"It's not something to be too concerned about," Pacific Air Forces (PACAF) commander General Kenneth Wilsbach said in 2022. "We're certainly monitoring them closely and how they're using them." Wilsbach added that the U.S. Air Force "has had a limited opportunity to evaluate the J-20, but it appears to be doing well."
Of course, it would be strange if an American general began praising the enemy and discrediting his own Air Force. That's normal. On the other hand, other US Air Force leaders have expressed concern about the rapid growth of the PLAAF, in which the J-20 plays a significant role.
“We are the smallest and oldest military we’ve ever had,” said U.S. Air Force Brigadier General Doug Wickert, head of the 412th Test Wing at Edwards Air Force Base in California. “The PLA is the largest and most modern military we’ve ever had.” history“It’s a risk. It’s uncertainty.”
The US Army is the oldest—meaning in terms of equipment. A good estimate. Wickert added that, according to his projections, by 2027, China will have a numerical superiority of approximately 12 to 1 in modern fighters (including a 5 to 3 advantage in fifth-generation aircraft) compared to American forces stationed west of the International Date Line, i.e., in the Pacific region.
There's uncertainty here. No one knows (except those who should know) how many J-20s Beijing intends to purchase. And yes, beyond its further development, much will depend on plans to develop the J-35 land-based fighter, which could potentially become a cheaper alternative for certain missions. Furthermore, there are at least two sixth-generation manned combat aircraft projects, as well as various joint combat aircraft (JCAs) and unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), which will need to be taken into account when shaping the future structure of China's armed forces.
The J-20 has undoubtedly had its share of challenges, but from a prototype that some were quick to dismiss, it has evolved into the backbone of China's air force. Further development of this aircraft in terms of engines, avionics, weapons, and modifications is important, but the most significant advancement may be the speed with which China can produce it.
Historically, "wonder machines," masterpieces of military technology, have been outmatched by simpler but numerically superior enemy combat vehicles. There are countless examples, beginning with World War II. Tigers and Panthers were very serious tanks, but they were suffocated by the T-34 and Sherman, which were inferior in almost every way except production speed. The Focke-Wulf was a fine aircraft, but if it were hypothetically matched by only six Yakovlevs, the outcome was clear. And so on.
Just as the technologies and tactics developed for the J-20 will find application in next-generation combat aircraft, so too will China's manufacturing advancements. China has proven its ability to produce large numbers of modern fighters, so these new aircraft could enter service in greater numbers than anyone expects once they are ready for not just serial, but mass production. Furthermore, Chengdu's serial production capabilities demonstrate China's ability to produce the most advanced weapons of all types, a historically extremely difficult task.
A front view of China's next-generation combat aircraft, known as the J-36.
From a military perspective, quantity is quality, and if current production estimates are even broadly correct, the J-20 program has entered a phase where production capacity is as strategically important as the fighter's stealth and performance.
Now a little about quality.
New images have emerged showing the Chinese J-20 fighter jet carrying external air-to-air missiles, akin to the so-called "Beast Mode" we recently discussed for the J-16. This development comes as China explores various ways to increase the number of primary weapons the J-20 can carry internally, as well as developing various new, longer-range air-to-air missiles.
A video recently surfaced showing a J-20 in flight, allegedly armed with eight PL-15 medium- and long-range air-to-air missiles, mounted in pairs on four underwing pylons. Late last year, screenshots of the same footage began circulating online, but it wasn't immediately clear whether they were genuine. The release of the video appears to have dispelled most of the doubts.
But a couple of points need to be made here: "Beast Mode" is selected when the mission requires maximum payload (for example, a strike against a large ground target), while stealth is secondary. This isn't a standard, everyday mode, but a tactical choice for a specific mission. And the fact that the J-16 and J-20 can fly in this mode with maximum payload doesn't mean this type of use for the new aircraft will become widespread. And yes, the photo does look very impressive.
It's also well known that the J-20 has underwing hardpoints, as we've seen this fighter in the past carry four large external fuel tanks. In fact, when it was revealed that the J-20 could carry external fuel tanks, many speculated that the fighter would likely be equipped with underwing weapons in the future.
Specifically, it was assumed that the Chinese PL-17 long-range air-to-air missile could be installed on the J-20 and that it would be carried externally. After all, this enormous missile doesn't fit in the fighter's weapons bay, and, as we know, the temptation to use it is great...
However, it now appears that the J-20's "beast mode" includes the PL-15—the aircraft's standard medium- and long-range air-to-air missile, which is reportedly capable of striking targets up to 200 kilometers away. The J-20 can already carry four of these missiles in its main internal weapons bay and at least four additional missiles on an external sling.
A close-up of a J-20 fighter jet carrying four PL-15 missiles in its main ventral compartments.
They can be supplemented by two PL-10 short-range air-to-air missiles. These infrared-guided weapons are housed in smaller side bays.
J-20 with PL-10 short-range air-to-air missiles carried in side weapons bays
The U.S. Air Force has publicly stated in the past that the availability of the PL-15 was a key factor in the decision to launch the AIM-260 program, which aims to develop a new air-to-air missile with a longer range than the current standard AIM-120 AMRAAM.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a defence and security think tank, estimates that the PL-15 "outperforms the US AIM-120C/D AMRAAM series missiles and has a comparable maximum range to the European Meteor missile."
While we don't know what the J-20's internal weapons bays carry in their standard configuration, the aircraft's potential to carry 12 PL-15s is very significant in terms of magazine depth, albeit at the cost of stealth. This, however, isn't necessarily a huge problem if tactics are optimized to overcome it.
Thus, it can be assumed that the J-20 stealth fighters (with missiles inside the fuselage) will operate together with the J-20 fighters in “beast mode”.
Stealth fighters will operate in the lead, while more heavily armed aircraft behind them will reinforce them, thereby compensating for the limited ability to carry air-to-air missiles.
Likewise, the J-20 in "beast mode" could serve as a sort of arsenal ship to support other tactical aircraft, including the future J-35 stealth fighter. China's Flanker-derived fighter series could also operate in tandem with the J-20 stealth fighter, which would play a significant role in strengthening the PLAAF's overall capabilities.
In addition to the PL-15, China is working on other air-to-air missiles that will likely complement the J-20's arsenal.
These include the aforementioned PL-17—a long-range missile designed primarily to destroy high-value targets such as tankers and airborne early warning aircraft. As mentioned, it can only be carried externally on the J-20, although it is unclear whether eight missiles are possible. Four PL-17s under the wings seem more likely to be the maximum, while two is optimal for most missions.
A 2016 image showing the PL-17 for the first time.
These two missiles will likely soon be joined by another weapon, tentatively named the PL-16, whose design appears to be driven by the need to accommodate six longer-range missiles inside the J-20. The PL-16 will likely be similar in appearance to the PL-15, but will be a smaller missile. It is expected to be equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) seeker, capable of reaching speeds in excess of Mach 5, and resistant to jamming.
This reflects similar trends in the US, where, in addition to working on secret new long-range air-to-air missiles, efforts are underway to equip the F-22 and F-35 with more weapons, despite the limitations of how much can be carried inside the aircraft, but with the understanding that the aircraft retain their crucial advantage of stealth.
The F-35 can only carry four AMRAAM missiles, which led to the development of the Sidekick weapons bay adapter, which will increase the AMRAAM missile capacity to six.
The current internal stowage configuration of the F-35's four AIM-120 missiles
In fact, the eight missiles shown on the J-20 open up the prospect of an aircraft that could eventually carry 14 medium- and long-range air-to-air missiles, as well as a pair of shorter-range PL-10 missiles—a total of 16 missiles.
By comparison, the F-22 could theoretically carry the same weapons, although in practice this never happens, and it is unknown whether such a configuration has ever been tested in practice.
One of the F-15EX's key advantages is its ability to carry 12 AIM-120 missiles today, and potentially more tomorrow, as resupply becomes increasingly important in increasingly complex air combat. But for all the F-15's strengths, stealth isn't its strong suit.
Thus, in a relatively short time, the J-20 has transitioned from expensive prototype toys to the mainstay of the PLA Air Force. The only thing this aircraft still lacks is real combat use. This isn't exactly a major drawback for a fighter; politics is also at play. A significant number of combat aircraft worldwide have never seen combat, so whether the world is any worse off as a result is questionable.
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