Military Review

Kenneth Waltz: The United States is waiting for a slow decline

91
Kenneth Waltz: The United States is waiting for a slow declineMost of the current discussions in international politics focus on growing powers: China, India, Brazil, and so on. How seriously should we think about their rise or, in some cases, the rebirth of these countries?


Rising powers are growing, but they are "major", not "great" powers. It seems to me that war is becoming increasingly impossible. I do not mean skirmishes, but real war. This means that international politics is pretty boring. If the ascending powers achieve the status of great powers, then international politics will become more interesting.

What are the main threats and challenges to the power of the United States over the next two decades?

Progressive and slow decay. It will take some time, but the fall will be gentle and slow.

Yes, but how slowly? I mean, after the defeat in the American war of independence, everyone thought that the British Empire was nearing its decline. But the British shook off the dust and their power became even more than ever, which allowed them to make a big run for almost two centuries. Is American decay inevitable?

Rome also had a good tread. Great powers never live forever. The population of the United States falls as a proportion of the world's population. China is growing slowly, but it will become a great power, even if it takes a long time. But one cannot say how quickly - time is accelerating due to the huge achievements in the field of transport and communications. Things move in space very slowly, but now changes are happening quickly. However, the great powers really cannot be equal to be rivals. I and others once wrote about the bipolar world between the United States and the Soviet Union, and it was a really tough competition for a long time, but the Soviets had half the power of the United States. The Soviet Union endured a truly impressive battle, but it had only half of the gross domestic product of the United States.

You mentioned China. What are the consequences of the rise of China for the United States and for the stability of the international system?

If China continues to grow economically, it will be a major power in the world, however, it will take a long time before it surpasses the United States and causes a genuine global change in power relations. It will take a long time for the decline of the United States, and for the growth of a new major power too — that is, strength and power in all respects — such as China. Changes in the international system may occur in your life, but not in mine. China will continue to grow despite internal problems, such as political upheavals, or, rather, economic difficulties on the surface. Quality of life on issues such as environmental pollution are also important for the country and its people. I was there in the 2004 year, and I had to travel many miles before I had fresh air in my lungs. I am sure that this problem is much worse now.

The United States also has an important geopolitical advantage over China. They guard the two greatest oceans of the world and enjoy the advantages of having small and friendly neighbors. China, for its part, is surrounded by a large number of great powers (Japan, Russia, India) and many potential enemies.

I totally agree. And besides what you say, the Chinese have all kinds of problems. Driving in Beijing is a nightmare, and traffic jams are a major negative aspect affecting their economy. Children in China live safely, but there is no state social security system there. Of course, the United States has demographic problems. When I was growing up, the United States had a population of 150 million people, but now it is 300 million. As in Beijing, driving in Washington is a nightmare.

What should the United States do to avoid overtaking China in the long run?

Reducing implies big trouble - the decline can be slowed down, but it is very difficult to reverse. The United States is in a very early stage of decline, but there is a long way to go. Developing countries such as China and India are on the horizon.

Let us turn to Russia ... Why did the so-called “reset” of the United States and Russia fail, and is success possible in the future?

Russia is no longer a great power, so it is not so important. Problems associated with Russia are common problems in international affairs. I do not see anything special in relations with Russia. Are there any big outstanding issues? What does the United States achieve through cooperation with Russia?

Missile defense, for example, seems to have been a stumbling block in US-Russian cooperation.

Missile defense is a joke. It works only when used against a small number of missiles and is useless when faced with a large and overwhelming attack. We saw it in Israel. Missile defense is essentially an excuse for increasing the defense budget.

But technology is changing. For example, important advances have been made in the field of a directed energy system, which could potentially help solve the problem of the vast majority of offensive missiles.

It's true. But the missile defense system provides security only when it guarantees one hundred percent certainty. With ninety-nine percent certainty, there is still a significant risk — even one missile can do a lot of damage. There are great budgetary reasons for developing a missile defense system. That is why there is a strong interest from the military.

You argued that nuclear proliferation weaponsmay have stabilizing effects on the international system. It is interesting, however, to what extent can we extrapolate lessons from Soviet-American nuclear competition — bipolar and global — in other environments? In the Middle East, for example, the problem is not only in Iran, but in the further spread. Could we talk about a multipolar nuclear regional environment where different forces are separated by a distance of ten minutes of a rocket flight? Isn't it too risky?

NO ONE ever attacked a country with nuclear weapons. John Mirsheimer argues that this is a dangerous assumption and Thomas Schelling became famous for arguing that nuclear weapons force the state to show more solutions than their opponents. The Cuban missile crisis was the most instructive event in international politics since the advent of nuclear weapons - this proves that Mearsheimer and Schelling are wrong. As Brodie noted, nuclear weapons were not created to fight, but to prevent wars. If the United States and the Soviet Union staged a nuclear war, we would all be dead — it was a choice between the loss of a person and the loss of a country. Nuclear weapons are great weapons that keep the peace.

But nuclear weapons do not necessarily "destroy politics." American and Soviet nuclear weapons did not eliminate geopolitical competition or proxy warfare. If Iran creates nuclear weapons, it will give it more leverage for foreign policy in the Middle East. He will become more confident. And this could have negative consequences for American interests in the region and the security of Washington’s allies.

I know it sounds weird, but is Iran really able to change the situation as a nuclear power? We had cases in which small and weak countries acquired nuclear capabilities and nothing changed after that. What will Iran do? This is one of the countries that maintains its status quo for longer than others. storiesincluding in recent years. Iran does not have the slightest desire to seize foreign territory or peoples. Of course, it creates problems, but which country does not do this? Israel does. Iran will not behave differently with other states.

Let me go back and finish with the question of the rising powers and the changing world order. What do all these changes mean for Europe?

When the big powers lose their power, they become uninteresting. Just as Athens and Sparta after the rise of Rome, Germany and France are not interesting now. Some people argue that how wonderful it is that Europe has become peaceful, but do these people know the story? The inevitable consequence of the once great powers in their decline is that they become more peaceful. We should expect nothing else from them.

Does the European Union represent the end or moderation of anarchy in Europe, or should we expect the return of power competition in Europe?

Anarchy is the main cause and state of international politics and it is present in Europe. But the consequences in Europe are not the same. Do not forget that Norway and Sweden were separated without war or fuss. Anyway, who cares about anarchy in Europe? What is there to hold back? Everything has long been kept. Countries struggle, then their decline comes and they become more peaceful.

In any case, Europe is not a controversial issue. It will only become more interesting when it forms a truly united sovereign country, but this will not happen soon. Europe is boring and rich. He is in a happy position, so enjoy.
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  1. djon3volta
    djon3volta 29 May 2013 14: 59 New
    13
    Missile defense is a joke. It works only when used against a small number of missiles and is useless when faced with a large and overwhelming attack. We saw it in Israel. Missile defense is essentially an excuse for increasing the defense budget.

    everything is just that. Europe is a dust in the eye for gentle Europeans, it won’t reflect anything with a massive blow. The same Israeli "iron" dome is full of garbage, which homemade from the Gaza Strip did not reflect everything, but what will happen if Syria is crazy about Israel? and if Iran? the cap will be FULL to Israel, that’s what will happen!
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 15: 33 New
      17
      Article minus. The arguments and comparisons are incorrect. Comparing the "decline of England" and the United States in modern conditions is not correct. At one time, England retained its dominance, having lost only part of its colonies, which quickly became an ally. England retained its fleet and economic institutions, many monopolies also remained with London. In turn, the current situation of the United States is completely different, the power of the United States is based on military force and many bases, which are funded by dollar emission. This is a vicious circle, but as soon as the dollars stop buying, the US is doomed. and this process will not be gradual, but almost instantaneous. There are no other pillars of US power, but there is a negative attitude towards the states around the world.

      And of course, Russia is no longer a great power, because Russia, within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Community and the Customs Union, has already restored 70% of the USSR with the reconfiguration of all institutions of power not taken into account. Sochi talks between Yanukovych and Putin may be annexed by another 25%. Applications and consultations on accession from Syria and Iran can radically change the situation in the world. and of course, the great powers cannot quickly fade away, the example of Ancient Rome and England is given, but the example of the USSR is so ... only “barbarians” have this. As well as examples of the growth of empires, Germany of the 30s is also an isolated case ... As well as China in the period from 1980 to 2012.
      1. Petrospek
        Petrospek 29 May 2013 16: 05 New
        +2
        1. The power of the United States is based not just on military force, but on the fact that all the economic levers of the world are in the United States, military power is just an application to the economy.
        2. If everyone suddenly stops buying the dollar, then everyone suddenly becomes poor, this is a long process of crowding out the dollar with other currencies.
        3.EvrazES - this structure at the moment depends only on the political will of the presidents. And as you know, almost all Central Asian leaders look very carefully where the wind blows.
        4. Syria and Iran? and they, in reality, what side?
        1. Rattenfanger
          Rattenfanger 29 May 2013 16: 28 New
          +2
          US power is based not just on military force, but on the fact that all the economic levers of the world are in the United States, military power is just an appendix to the economy.


          If the United States deprives it of AUG, then the value of $ will triple. Then, as a result, the capitalization of the country's economy will fall.
          It is impossible today to draw a clear border m / y the power of economic, military, political.
          1. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 16: 32 New
            +2
            Quote: Rattenfanger
            If the United States deprives it of AUG, then the value of $ will triple. Then, as a result, the capitalization of the country's economy will drop. It is impossible today to draw a clear border m / y the power of economic, military, political.

            In the designs of superpowers it is just possible. Military power is always the basis of the prosperity of the empire and its maximum achievement. Although at the time of the formation and development of a country before the hegemon of the empire there are different instruments, in the peak of development and subsequent existence it is military power that is both a guarantee of prosperity and a condition of economic dominance.
            1. Rattenfanger
              Rattenfanger 29 May 2013 18: 26 New
              0
              In superpower designs, you can

              For instance? Although you kill, I can’t imagine how it is possible to clearly differentiate the military, economic and political components?
              At least one example of a superpower, where these phenomena are clearly isolated and directly independent from each other?
              1. Atlon
                Atlon 29 May 2013 23: 45 New
                +3
                Quote: Rattenfanger
                Although you kill, I can’t imagine how it is possible to clearly differentiate the military, economic and political components?

                Classics of the genre:
                Politics is the quintessence of economics. War is the quintessence of politics. In other words, military power makes it possible to conduct the necessary (profitable) policy, and profitable policy gives the necessary (profitable) economy. For example, with impunity printing money, and selling it to the whole world ...
                1. Egen
                  Egen 30 May 2013 10: 31 New
                  0
                  Quote: Atlon
                  Politics is the quintessence of economics. War is the quintessence of politics

                  Duc, - Bismarck :)

                  "Russia is no longer a great power, so this is not so important" - it has been frankly stated that we are not representing ourselves right now, and the country's leadership is still rushing about something :(
                  But in principle, nothing new.
                  1. Atlon
                    Atlon 30 May 2013 13: 45 New
                    0
                    Quote: Egen
                    “Russia is no longer a great power, so it’s not so important” - it is frankly stated that we are not representing ourselves right now, and the country's leadership is still vomiting

                    Maybe ... However, at the same time, I recalled the words of Professor Stravinsky, said to the poet Ivan Homeless: "You can say anything, but not everything needs to be believed!"
                    1. Egen
                      Egen 30 May 2013 15: 05 New
                      0
                      Duc! :) I'm not so enlightened in the statements :(, but someone said that it’s not important whether we believe it or not, it’s important that they believe it :)
                      If no one said, authorship is mine :))
                2. Rattenfanger
                  Rattenfanger 30 May 2013 12: 32 New
                  0
                  Absolutely true. Thus, if one takes as a postulate the statement “politics is the quintessence (that is, the essence) of the economy”, then the very attempt to divide politics and economics into clearly distinguishable systems is absurd, at least.
        2. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 16: 30 New
          +1
          Quote: Petrospek
          1. The power of the United States is based not just on military force, but on the fact that all the economic levers of the world are in the United States, military power is just an application to the economy.

          The economic power of a state is a combination of many factors, the main of which is the size of the country, which determines the extent of its participation in the global demand and supply of goods and services, the presence of strategic sectors of the economy of a given state and the strength of the bargaining power of the state in international trade.
          The United States had all this at the turn of the century. However, over the past 30 years, the United States has made a number of miscalculations and has lost its leading position in these segments. Moreover, you need to understand that all these factors form the so-called “credit of trust” in the country, and it is the United States that took full advantage of this loan. The control of both the WTO and the World Bank is still in the hands of the United States, but the US position there has been significantly shaken. However, the so-called credit of trust provided by Yu, including these institutions, was completely chosen by the USA through its issue, and moreover, a loan for the credibility of full control over these institutions, and not its current "property."
          Its production in the United States is not enough even to ensure domestic consumption, hence the enormous trade imbalance.
          There is much more to be written so that those who do not understand understand the fundamental nature of the changes in the world and the inevitability of the collapse of the United States in the coming years, moreover, the collapse of the fleeting. But to put it simply, the United States took a loan from the whole world to solve its internal problems, but they did not solve the problems, but only increased it. To get out they still need to borrow money, but they don’t have a limit. If they don’t create some new institutions of the world economy and lose their influence in the existing ones. However, all the events of recent years indicate exactly the opposite, the United States is losing influence where it dominated and do not create anything new. This is a fundamental contradiction, which they are no longer able to overcome.
          2. If everyone suddenly stops buying the dollar, then everyone suddenly becomes poor, this is a long process of crowding out the dollar with other currencies.
          You are not quite right. Beggars will be those who print the dollar. All the rest will simply switch to their currencies and normalize trade imbalances in the world, which were just caused by an unsecured cash emission of the dollar, when a number of close banks received "goods" for barter from the air, when competitors had to work hard to create their own real item. A fall in the dollar will reduce the competitive advantages of both the United States and the EU, where states subsidize their production through free loans of dollar emission. The same applies to trading companies. As a result, from the fall of the dollar financial system, not only will everyone not become destitute, but on the contrary they will start to earn real benefits for their labor, and not pay for the welfare of the EU and the USA with their labor, as it happens today.
          1. fisherman
            fisherman 29 May 2013 19: 19 New
            +1
            that is, in simple terms, the power of the United States rests on 3 pillars:

            a) Army (plus corresponding options)
            b Fed (plus ...)
            c) Hollywood (plus ...)
          2. Young Putin
            Young Putin 29 May 2013 19: 48 New
            +1
            Quote: Gluxar_
            Beggars will be those who print the dollar. All the rest will simply switch to their currencies and normalize trade imbalances in the world

            I want to note that before the Euro, the currencies of the Eurozone countries had their own currencies, the economy was fine .. what are we now seeing in the Eurozone? production decline, unemployment is growing, the outflow of specialists.
            1. Gluxar_
              Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 20: 39 New
              +2
              Quote: Young Putin
              I want to note that before the Euro, the currencies of the Eurozone countries had their own currencies, the economy was fine .. what are we now seeing in the Eurozone? production decline, unemployment is growing, the outflow of specialists.

              Not in all EU countries, those that have kept their currencies do not feel bad.
        3. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 16: 30 New
          +1
          Quote: Petrospek
          3.EvrazES - this structure at the moment depends only on the political will of the presidents. And as you know, almost all Central Asian leaders look very carefully where the wind blows.

          That is why they close Manas and join the TS. All sane for a long time it is clear where the wind blows, since 99 years.
          Quote: Petrospek
          4. Syria and Iran? and they, in reality, what side?

          Read how. Iran has long been eyeing the SCO. And what sideways, so look at Tukrtsiya in the NATO ranks, Iran and Syria could become the same enclave in the Middle East for the "expanded TS", with unhindered access of Russia both to the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean.
        4. silver_roman
          silver_roman 29 May 2013 19: 02 New
          +4
          all the economic levers of the world are in the USA

          Well this is true only partly. For example, why is the US so carefully and reverently conducting its foreign policy with China? not because they are so afraid of hostilities (although this too lol ), but because China has a huge amount of securities and US bonds. and if, for example, a lot of tension begins, then all these assets can be started in a quiet way, and then it will be like a frog slowly boiling in water .... it will not jump anywhere soldier
          and I'm not talking about how much of the entire US production capacity is outside the United States.
      2. ziqzaq
        ziqzaq 29 May 2013 16: 25 New
        +1
        Quote: Gluxar_
        Article minus. The arguments and comparisons are incorrect

        I agree with you, Kenneth Waltz argues like a plane-simplified .....
        1. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 16: 34 New
          +1
          Quote: ziqzaq
          I agree with you, Kenneth Waltz argues like a plane-simplified .....

          A man simply earns his bread. What makes me incomparably happy in the context of civilizational confrontation is that there are no more real thinkers and strategists in the West, and those old people who thought 40 years ago are already in close contact with the “Alzheimer”. From here, in fact, there is such a furious attempt by doctors to find a cure for this particular disease, which is not in the first place for the well-being of the present and future generations ...
      3. nickname 1 and 2
        nickname 1 and 2 29 May 2013 17: 20 New
        +1
        Quote: Gluxar_
        an example of Ancient Rome


        and BTW ABOUT ROME = I remember the reasons indicated in the ROMAN'S EMBODIMENT OF DEMAGOGY (EXCESSIVE) THAT HAS BEEN DECLINED BY AUTHORITY AND, AS A RESULT, WRITING.
      4. silver_roman
        silver_roman 29 May 2013 18: 58 New
        +1
        I agree with you. so it is worth considering that for which similar words were spoken and by WHOM they were spoken.
        Kenneth Neil Waltz (Eng. Kenneth Neal Waltz; June 8, 1924 - May 13, 2013) - American political scientist, representative of the theory of neorealism; Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley and Columbia University [1], 1987–1988. - President of the American Political Science Association (APSA) [2], member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. In 1999, he was awarded the J. Madison Prize. Waltz's main research interests are theoretical and methodological problems of international relations as an independent discipline; later - a set of problems related to the proliferation of nuclear weapons.


        a small wiki clipping.
        The American and he a priori cannot be objective, because even if he tries to be one, he will always be American and will even try to put in his verbal form as more optimism for the United States.

        I’m all about the fact that in the modern world nothing just happens. to take all such political scientists, all programs and programs in the likeness of “The Spirit of the Time”. they are all made "to order" by someone and for a specific purpose ....
        But there is only one conclusion: apparently already a certain part of American society has come to terms with the fact that the sunset is already close and only a few (of those who understand this) are trying to “lay straws” before the fall with such banal speeches. purely my IMHO hi
      5. Nick
        Nick 29 May 2013 20: 52 New
        +1
        Quote: Gluxar_
        EurAsEC and the CU have already restored 70% of the USSR with the reconfiguration of all institutions of power not taken into account. Sochi talks between Yanukovych and Putin may be annexed by another 25%. Applications and consultations on accession from Syria and Iran can radically change the situation in the world.

        The principle of an ostrich, I will bury my head in the sand and see nothing ... They do not want to notice the rebirth of Russia ...
        1. Gluxar_
          Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 22: 42 New
          +3
          Quote: Nick
          The principle of an ostrich, I will bury my head in the sand and see nothing ... They do not want to notice the rebirth of Russia ...

          Those who are supposed to have noticed this for a long time, therefore, they began their information campaign and scored all sorts of lackeys who should cover everything up with shit and not prevent Russian society from accepting a new vector of development for our Motherland. Some fragile minds are vulnerable to such propaganda and against their will, smeared with shit, begin to smear their neighbors as well. One such "mazak" flew into the forum today
      6. Atlon
        Atlon 29 May 2013 23: 39 New
        +1
        Quote: Gluxar_
        Sochi talks between Yanukovych and Putin may be annexed by another 25%.

        Already!
        Ukraine is ready to enter the customs union as an observer. So far ... Today, Yanukovych attended a meeting of the participating countries in Astana and participated in the negotiations. There is already an official EU reaction, I quote: "If Ukraine joins the customs union, for it it will mean a complete loss of sovereignty ..." (end of quote). laughing
        1. Misantrop
          Misantrop 29 May 2013 23: 48 New
          +2
          Quote: Atlon
          the official reaction of the EU, I quote: "If Ukraine joins the customs union, for it it will mean a complete loss of sovereignty ..."
          I’m afraid that an attempt to join the EU will lead Ukraine to a complete loss of sexual identification ... request
    2. nickname 1 and 2
      nickname 1 and 2 29 May 2013 17: 12 New
      -1
      Quote: djon3volta
      will reflect on a massive impact. The same Israeli "iron" dome garbage


      Yes, and the match can be extinguished in a bucket of gasoline. Speed ​​just has to be suitable! SORRY ONLY THOSE WHO WISH THIS APPROVAL TO CONFIRM!
    3. Army1
      Army1 29 May 2013 17: 46 New
      +2
      Russia is no longer a great power, so this is not so important.

      After that, I was finally convinced that the essence of the article was that Russia will always be a Great Power, it’s not URYAPATRIOTISM, based on the same rich history of more than a thousand-year history, which can’t be said about the United States. In general, who is stopping us from becoming a superpower, the government is weak, forgive me Putin fans, and his haters do not rejoice, I am neutral towards the president. And I was pleased about the USSR’s GDP, few people know that the cost of services is also included in the US GDP.
  2. svp67
    svp67 29 May 2013 15: 17 New
    +5
    Progressive and slow decline. It will take some time, but the fall will be tender and slow.
    It remains to add, it will be painted in blue and pink tones ... lol
    1. Atrix
      Atrix 29 May 2013 15: 32 New
      -5
      Quote: svp67
      Progressive and slow decline. It will take some time, but the fall will be tender and slow.
      It remains to add, it wakes up in blue and pink tones ... lol

      To be honest, I do not understand your joy in the decline of the United States. From becoming it becomes clear that China is becoming a new superpower, and India is following the same steps. The USA was somehow far away and with the USA we have much more culturally than with China and India. What to rejoice when you get at your borders a new superpower with a population of almost 10 times its own. I’m much more afraid of China becoming a new superpower than bad relations with the United States. In general, it seems to me early to rejoice that the United States is losing its role as a superpower and China is changing it, new doesn't mean better than old
      1. svp67
        svp67 29 May 2013 15: 47 New
        10
        Quote: Atrix
        To be honest I don’t understand your joy of the decline of the USA
        And who told you that I am very happy? It’s just already visible that the world to which we are accustomed is collapsing and collapsing faster and faster, every year. I have already experienced one “era of changes” - nothing is good ... But at the same time, seeing that the country has created “IT” with my country has not saved anything from “SAME”, it still causes a certain sense of satisfaction ... What can I do human nature is this.
      2. Gluxar_
        Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 15: 51 New
        +9
        Quote: Atrix
        To be honest, I do not understand your joy in the decline of the United States.

        And it is not surprising that you do not understand, if you look at your posts, then everything becomes clear, you have such an installation ...
        Quote: Atrix
        From becoming it becomes clear that China is becoming a new superpower, and India is following the same steps. The USA was somehow far away and with the USA we have much more culturally than with China and India. What to rejoice when you get at your borders a new superpower with a population of almost 10 times its own. I’m much more afraid of China becoming a new superpower than bad relations with the United States. In general, it seems to me early to rejoice that the United States is losing its role as a superpower and China is changing it, the new does not mean better than the old

        From the article it becomes clear only that the United States, by all available means, is trying to convince the world of its unsinkability, so that in the remaining time it will be possible to print its candy wrappers even more and sell it to everyone who has gone dead.
        Regarding the real situation in geopolitics, Russia and its people suffer enormous losses and suffering from the presence of the USA as a world hegemon. From the neighborhood with China, Russia receives a lot of economic benefits. But the Russian Federation has practically no economic relations with the USA, a simple conclusion is drawn from this. The fall and collapse of the United States will hit the entire global economy, but the impact will not be the same. The main trading partners will suffer the most, and this is just China and the European Union. The next simple conclusion is that Russia receives at least two positive effects from the fall of the United States, the first is the reduction in domestic costs of confronting US workers who want to undermine Russia and divide it into several states, and the second is the increase in Russia's competitiveness in the world market in the face of a dollar collapse system and trade relations of the United States and its partners. Understanding this state of things, the true EU grants are already being reoriented towards Russia leaving the USA. An example is Germany, which does not support any US initiatives both against Russia and the Middle East. Germans understand that the imminent collapse of the United States will hit the entire EU, which certainly can not stand it. And there will remain companies on the market that work "in the east" and who have built industrial relations with Russia.


        As for China, the demographic policy of the past 50 years has led to the fact that today the number of people emerging from reproductive age has already exceeded 50%. environmental problems and the subsequent economic crisis after the collapse of the main buyer of Chinese goods will lead to a sharp reduction in the population of China by more than half in the next 40 years. In addition, you need to understand the global political architecture in order not to put Russia, the United States, the EU and China on the same level. China has, and has been for thousands of years, its geopolitical space, the main rival of which is Japan and especially India. India can become the main player in this region by the middle of the 21st century. And all of China's attention is directed specifically to the south, but not to the north. In the north, China needs a reliable rear. And because of this, China for Russia for the next century is the most coveted buyer of our products and partner in the region.
        1. a
          a 29 May 2013 18: 33 New
          0
          Quote: Gluxar_
          Regarding the real situation in geopolitics, Russia and its people suffer enormous losses and suffering from the presence of the USA as a world hegemon


          Sorry, but here you can only blame yourself. if we are not competitive, then this is not America's problem. this is our problem, the problem of our leadership, the problem of choosing development strategies. we always go after others. that is, they are always forced to defend themselves, as it were. what prevents us from making the economy the coolest? there seems to be potential. then America would try to catch up with us, and not we. and while we are not competitive all the desires for the collapse of another country are just dreams of losers in the economic struggle.

          Quote: Gluxar_
          The fall and collapse of the United States will hit the entire global economy, but the impact will not be the same. The main trading partners will suffer the most, and this is just China and the European Union. The next simple conclusion is that Russia receives at least two positive effects from the fall of the United States, the first is the reduction in domestic costs of confronting US workers who want to undermine Russia and divide it into several states, and the second is the increase in Russia's competitiveness in the world market in the face of a dollar collapse system and trade relations of the United States and its partners


          are mistaken. America and China are now the largest consumers of oil and gas. if the American economy collapses, oil prices will not just drop, they will collapse. and will be at the level of the beginning of the 90s, somewhere around 8-10 dollars per barrel. Considering that our government can only earn on oil and gas, our budget will face no less collapse. again, back to the beginning of the 90s with absolute poverty. Well, what about the passage that our competitiveness will increase (which in itself is not a fact, due to which we will become competitive? What will we learn to do something?) confirms what economic loser said a little earlier.
          1. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 19: 26 New
            +2
            Quote: uno
            Sorry, but here you can only blame yourself. if we are not competitive, then this is not America's problem. this is our problem, the problem of our leadership, the problem of choosing development strategies. we always go after others. that is, they are always forced to defend themselves, as it were. what prevents us from making the economy the coolest? there seems to be potential. then America would try to catch up with us, and not we. and while we are not competitive all the desires for the collapse of another country are just dreams of losers in the economic struggle.

            You misunderstood. It is about financing the United States and its gang underground services and the CIA's sabotage of statehood. the government is forced to redirect funds to extinguish these kindled fires, instead of stimulating economic development. This is called sabotage, and the main sponsor is the United States, which is profitable to spend a billion dollars of its money so that Russia spends a billion on countermeasures, and not on its development.

            the same rallies and provocations force spending money to ensure their safety. Some “swamps” think that they are helping their country fight something by going out on these marches, but few people think about how much it costs the state to ensure the safety of these events. And first of all, the safety of the protesters themselves, both from terrorist attacks and from provocateurs. Few people understand how the overlapping of roads and avenues affects the economy of this region, when people instead of work should be stuck in traffic jams or when goods cannot get on the counter. There are many examples of such sabotage, and all this is funded by structures that do not want the development of Russia. Who pays, that girl also dances.
            There are internal problems, but there are countries that create these problems for us. that's what we are talking about right now. The collapse of the United States is beneficial to us in this moment, in another it could be otherwise.
            Regarding the losers, the main loser of the economic struggle of the 21st century is the United States. It was they who had everything, everything and prosrali. Look at the growth dynamics of the economy and industrial production and you will understand that Russia is winning here both the USA and the EU.
            1. a
              a 29 May 2013 20: 01 New
              0
              Quote: Gluxar_
              It is about financing the United States and its gang underground services and the CIA's sabotage of statehood. the government is forced to redirect funds to extinguish these kindled fires, instead of stimulating economic development.


              this is what speaks of economic insolvency. When the USSR was rich, we also financed a lot of people in spite of America. and now we are helpless and cannot finance someone. If they were rich, they could finance the Indians themselves or someone else.
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 20: 40 New
                +1
                Quote: uno
                this is what speaks of economic insolvency. When the USSR was rich, we also financed a lot of people in spite of America. and now we are helpless and cannot finance someone. If they were rich, they could finance the Indians themselves or someone else.

                This is not so much a matter of finance as of morality. In the West there is already nothing sacred except profit and sodomy.
                1. a
                  a 29 May 2013 20: 49 New
                  0
                  a moral issue? :) since when did our country become moral? :)))))
                  1. Gluxar_
                    Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 22: 44 New
                    +2
                    Quote: uno
                    a moral issue? :) since when did our country become moral? :)))))

                    Well, I don’t know what your country is. I wrote about mine.
                    1. a
                      a 29 May 2013 22: 54 New
                      -3
                      was the USSR / Russia moral? when they destroyed thousands of their people, when they starved their people .. when they climbed into other people's affairs? very moral :)
                      1. Gluxar_
                        Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 01: 49 New
                        +1
                        Quote: uno
                        was the USSR / Russia moral? when they destroyed thousands of their people, when they starved their people .. when they climbed into other people's affairs? very moral :)

                        Do you know anything about hunger? The USSR has preserved hundreds of peoples and their culture, unlike the West, which throughout its history has been engaged in the genocide of peoples and the slave trade, as well as the modern Arab world, whose representatives destroy the legacy of cucurities a thousand times more dangerous than themselves.
                        then how many people have died in the Soviet Socialist Republic can not be compared to the millions of Americans today. I'm not talking about the moral level of Western Europe, where patients with pederasty impose their moral perversions on everyone. About the fact that the West has universally denied faith and morality and morality. Replacing all this with profit and tolerance.
                        Reproach from such societies, it’s better in the USSR.

                        And regarding morality, you ask African slaves, who are sometimes simply hung for fun. 10-12 million slaves were brought into the USA, while in the USSR it was subject to repressions of all kinds, including the expulsion of only 3. In terms of the world population ratio, the years of repression are worse than the US by more than 777 times . And do not compare the conditions of detention of Soviet people in the settlement and slaves in the United States. With this comparison, the United States turns out to be hundreds of times more bloody country, which is built on the blood and bones of the Afrinak peoples.

                        You are even prepared in this section negligible. In the USSR, for all the years of repression from 2 to 54 years, a maximum of 642 thousand people were sentenced. And this is taking into account the events of the Second World War.

                        At the same time, even if you do not look at the problem of slavery, but turn your eyes to the United States of the same period as the USSR of the 30s. More than twice as many destitute people passed through American labor camps and the death rate was not lower than the Soviet Gulags, and this is not counting American prisoners. US labor camps of the 30s, this genocide is not an ideological basis, but an economic one. When the hungry and unemployed were driven into uninhabited areas, where they were dying of malaria and hunger, but they were building the future American infrastructure. And the number of deaths from malnutrition in the 30s and during the Great Depression in the United States exceeds 5 million people, which is higher than in the USSR during the same period.
                        There are also events such as the deportation of ethnic Japanese to labor camps, in which mortality was at the level of the Nazi death camps.

                        There are many materials on Western Europe and not only about Hitler. The Austro-Hungarian ethnic cleansing of the Little Russians of the early 20th century will give odds to both the USA and Germany.
                      2. Gluxar_
                        Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 01: 50 New
                        +1
                        Quote: uno
                        was the USSR / Russia moral? when they destroyed thousands of their people, when they starved their people .. when they climbed into other people's affairs? very moral :)

                        Everything does not fit into one comment. Here is the second for the second part of your writings.

                        About the "climb into other people's affairs" you generally missed. What caveman did you come out of? Or are you bored?
                        I’ll now lay out a list of US wars in which they once climb to foreign nations.

                        The list is very long, I will post only the 20th century.
                        1901 - the entry of troops into Colombia.
                        1902 - the invasion of Panama.
                        1903 - The United States sent warships to the Isthmus of Panama in order to isolate Colombian troops.
                        1903 - the entry of troops into Honduras, the Dominican Republic and Syria.
                        1904 - the entry of troops into Korea, Morocco and the Dominican Republic.
                        1904 - 1905 - American troops intervene in the Russo-Japanese War.
                        1905 - US troops intervene in the revolution in Honduras.
                        1905 - the entry of troops into Mexico (they helped the dictator Porfirio Diaz suppress the uprising).
                        1905 - the entry of troops into Korea.
                        1906 - the invasion of the Philippines, the suppression of the liberation movement.
                        1906 - 1909 - US troops enter Cuba during the election.
                        1907 - US forces implement the protectorate of "dollar diplomacy" in Nicaragua.
                        1907 - US forces intervene in the revolution in the Dominican Republic.
                        1907 - US troops participate in the war of Honduras with Nicaragua.
                        1908 - US troops enter Panama during the election.
                        1910 - Nicaragua. US troops invade the port of Bluefields and Corinto.
                        1911 - Americans land in Honduras
                        1911 - the suppression of the anti-American uprising in the Philippines.
                        1911 - the introduction of troops in China.
                        1912 - US troops enter Havana (Cuba).
                        1912 - US troops enter Panama during the election.
                        1912 - the invasion of American troops in Honduras.
                        1912 - 33 - occupation of Nicaragua, constant struggle with partisans.
                        1914 - US troops enter the Dominican Republic, the battle with the rebels for Santa Domingo.
                        1914 - 1918 - a series of invasions of Mexico.
                        1914 - 1934 - Haiti. After numerous uprisings, America enters its troops, the occupation continues for 19 years.
                      3. Gluxar_
                        Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 01: 53 New
                        0
                        Quote: uno
                        was the USSR / Russia moral? when they destroyed thousands of their people, when they starved their people .. when they climbed into other people's affairs? very moral :)

                        And two does not fit. Here is the third one.
                        1916 - 1924 - 8-year occupation of the Dominican Republic.
                        1917 - 1933 - the military occupation of Cuba, an economic protectorate.
                        1917 - 1918 - participation in the 1st World War.
                        1918 - 1922 - intervention in Russia. In total, 14 states participated in it.
                        1918 - 1920 - Panama. After the election, troops are introduced to suppress the riots.
                        1919 - COSTA RICA. Rebellion against the regime of President Tinoko.
                        1919 - American troops are fighting on the side of Italy against the Serbs in Dolmatia.
                        1919 - US troops enter Honduras during the election.
                        1920 - Guatemala. 2 weekly intervention.
                        1921 - American support for militants fighting to overthrow Guatemalan president Carlos Herrera for the benefit of the United Fruit Company.
                        1922 - intervention in Turkey.
                        1922 - 1927 - American troops in China during the popular uprising.
                        1924 - 1925 - Honduras. Troops invade the country during the election.
                        1925 - Panama. US troops disperse the general strike.
                        1926 - Nicaragua. Invasion.
                        1927 - 1934 - American troops stationed throughout China.
                        1932 - invasion of Salvador from the sea. There was a rebellion there at that time.
                        1936 - Spain. The introduction of troops during the civil war.
                        1937 - a single military clash with Japan.
                        1937 - Nicaragua. With the help of American troops, Somosa comes to power, having displaced the legitimate government of H. Sakas. Somosa became a dictator, his family ruled the country for the next 40 years.
                        1939 - the introduction of troops in China.
                        1941 - Yugoslavia. The coup on the night of March 26 to 27, 1941

                        After World War II, the US appetite increased, and the number of intrusions increased by more than 4 times. And half the list does not fit in the comments. Give a list of Soviet intervention.

                        I will stop there. Since in order to describe at least half of the known, 16 more full comments will have to be left.

                        Go to learn real history and do not pray nonsense. Trying to humiliate the country that gave birth to you. Shame on you.
            2. a
              a 29 May 2013 20: 03 New
              -2
              Quote: Gluxar_
              the same rallies and provocations forced to spend money on ensuring their safety ..... There are many examples of such sabotage and all this is funded by structures that do not want the development of Russia. Who pays, that girl also dances.


              frank nonsense I do not comment
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 20: 46 New
                +2
                Quote: uno
                frank nonsense I do not comment

                What can you comment on at all. I just have some free time today, so I decided to spend it on curing a provocateur like you. essentially you did not write anything without a single fact. And of course you have nothing to answer, because your understanding of the world and the processes in it is very insignificant. You don’t understand how it works, even the correlation of the efforts of the Ministry of Internal Affairs to control the rally, in relation to security actions and anti-terrorist activities during the rally. This is for the Moscow office party "cops bastards", and the fact that their assholes are intact and their faces are not torn off by striking elements is the merit of these "bastards" is not available to them.
                1. a
                  a 29 May 2013 20: 51 New
                  -2
                  Quote: Gluxar_
                  essentially you wrote nothing without a single fact


                  and what facts did you state? :))
                  you are only nonsense and spell out ..
                  how can you say that oil will rise in price to 400-800 bucks after the collapse of America ??? this is HUNT !!!
                  1. Gluxar_
                    Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 22: 51 New
                    +3
                    Quote: uno
                    and what facts did you state? :)) you are only nonsense and state .. how can I say that oil will rise in price to 400-800 bucks after the collapse of America ??? this is HUNT !!!

                    I was not too lazy to post extended answers to you with the justification of my comments. If you do not have enough information to understand what I'm writing, then this is a problem of your level of knowledge. I proceed from the fact that in the form and content of what I am writing, a knowledgeable person will understand the sources of this knowledge.

                    if I chose your troll strategy. then I would simply recommend each of your stupidity with my stupidity, without bothering myself with a set of long texts, some of which do not fall into the format and dimension acceptable on this resource.

                    I do this on purpose and in no case in order to convince you.
                    I understand who you are and your level of intelligence, it’s just that in a dialogue with people like you, your whole meager essence of information pumping is revealed. And sane people, reading this provocation article and looking at the comments will add up to a holistic, not a kaleidoscopic picture of the information stuffing. and this will develop immunity from them for hundreds and thousands of similar vysers. which you and you will produce similar trolls every day, trying to harm our people. But the days of the mottled slogans have passed, Russia has been updated and a new generation of people will build their own new world, and you will not find a place there.
                    1. a
                      a 29 May 2013 22: 57 New
                      -1
                      Quote: Gluxar_
                      I was not too lazy to post you extended answers with justification for one or another of my


                      you accused me of the lack of facts .. when I asked you about the facts you jumped into the bushes :)) began to write about extended answers .. you have expanded stupidity in your brains :))
                      stuttered about my intellect ?? :)))) scream .. and this is the person who writes such economic nonsense :))))
                      1. Gluxar_
                        Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 01: 59 New
                        +1
                        Quote: uno
                        you accused me of the lack of facts .. when I asked you about the facts you jumped into the bushes :)) started writing about extended answers..you have extended stupidity in your brains :)) hinted at my intellect ?? :)))) scream ..and this is the person who writes such economic nonsense :))))

                        Do you have the intelligence of a four year old child? You do not understand what is written? In adults, it is customary to say “not in words,” but to convey thoughts. The meaning of the plan. It is children who perceive information directly.
                        If you say that the United States will not collapse because Russia or the whole world is “shit.” Then I ask you to reveal your oil. Because it is corrupted and empty. When I say that the United States is the largest debtor in the world for all its existence. These are not my speculations, but well-known information and links to it are stupid to give. Since everyone understands that this is real in the world and they say a lot .
                        Are you able to understand the difference? or do you need to give a link to the second world war? You do not believe this without a link, and you do not care that 6 billion know this without a link ...

                        Do not be offended, but you are just stupid.
          2. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 19: 27 New
            +2
            Quote: uno
            are mistaken. America and China are now the largest consumers of oil and gas. if the American economy collapses, oil prices will not just drop, they will collapse. and will be at the level of the beginning of the 90s, somewhere around 8-10 dollars per barrel. Considering that our government can only earn on oil and gas, our budget will face no less collapse. again, back to the beginning of the 90s with absolute poverty. Well, what about the passage that our competitiveness will increase (which in itself is not a fact, due to which we will become competitive? What will we learn to do something?) confirms what economic loser said a little earlier.

            It’s not me who is fooled, and you just don’t know much. The United States is the largest consumer of oil, but not Russian. Of course, oil will fall in price and, moreover, substantially. However, if you knew a little about the economy, you would know that the dollar is already devalued by more than 90%. The dollar exists only as a reference to the mutual settlements of oil exporters and consumers. There is even such a concept petrodollar, which better reflects the value of green papers. In dollars, oil will not fall in any way, moreover, with the collapse of the US, prices will rise to $ 400 and $ 800, as US hyperinflation will gobble up the solvency of the paper. But by this time no one will need dollars. Settlements will be made in other currencies, as for example, Iran or China, which buys raw materials in exchange for long-term investments, is doing it now. The oil and gas sector of the Russian economy is only 30% of total GDP, taking into account gas, which is of greater importance.
            only your outright stupidity can paint you a picture in which no one needs oil and gas. In addition to the United States, there is a huge world in which oil producers are very tied to the construction of a barrel and they will not allow it to fall below a certain level. Today, the United States is already reducing purchases using its shale mining. Because the impact of falling demand for mineral products on the part of the United States will not be so appealing. The collapse of the petrodollar will be the main blow to prices, since a significant part of today's oil prices is the artificial pumping of dollar emissions and an attempt to attach it to some real product. But as soon as the dollar disappears during the collapse of the United States, the world economy will quickly reorient to other mutual settlements.

            As for Russia, we produce almost everything that we need inside the state and we have no dependence on the United States. Moreover, the US is trying in every possible way to push its goods into our market, using both the WTO leverage and dumping due to cheap loans.
            If you even try to understand the essence of the modern financial system, then you will understand that with the dollar crash and the possibility of free printing of “analogues of material goods”, the West’s economy will lose its competitiveness with respect to the Russian economy if Siemens or BMWs are subsidized not at 0% per annum, and at 12-19% as in Russia, their goods will increase in price at times and no one will buy them.
            So the hunger of the 90s will come to where our products went into the 90s.
            1. a
              a 29 May 2013 20: 06 New
              -1
              Quote: Gluxar_
              It’s not me who is fooled, and you just don’t know much. US largest oil consumers, but not Russian


              and this has nothing to do with whether America buys oil from us or not. if there are markets in which the price of oil is. when production falls, the price of oil in the markets falls. and it doesn’t matter, our oil companies or another place drive it to America. oil will be cheap if America bends
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 20: 55 New
                +2
                Quote: uno
                and this has nothing to do with whether America buys oil from us or not. if there are markets in which the price of oil is. when production falls, the price of oil in the markets falls. and it doesn’t matter, our oil companies or another place drive it to America. oil will be cheap if America bends

                Here you tried to think, but it didn’t work out very well. Does the price difference between Brent and WTI tell you anything? So WTI is even cleaner, although it costs less.
                You simply do not understand the relationship in this market. If oil falls below $ 100, then the majority of suppliers in the United States and Canada, as well as in OPEC countries, will go bankrupt, since their production in combination with the social burden is just at this level. Hence a simple conclusion. The cost of oil will fall. Its production will fall so much that prices stabilize.
                The only thing that will hinder this is if all production and transport returns to the tagl power of horses and bulls and refuses cars and cargo transportation.
                Regarding the cost of oil production, it is just European and American companies that are at the top of the list of production costs. What is even more relevant for all shale technologies.
                The only way to lower oil prices is a military seizure of deposits, as is done in Libya.
                And again, you are all talking about the petrodollar system. For example, China has long been working on a different principle with the countries of Africa and South America. He doesn’t need a dollar at all, he takes part of the production in exchange for building infrastructure and developing projects.
                The same applies to Russia. If oil prices and gas tied to them fall sharply, then our supply competitors will go bankrupt faster than the Russian Federation, which means that oil production will fall at them and raise world prices for the oil that remains on the market.
                1. a
                  a 29 May 2013 21: 33 New
                  -1
                  Quote: Gluxar_
                  Does the price difference between Brent and WTI tell you anything? So WTI is even cleaner, although it costs less.
                  You just do not understand the relationship in this market ............. will raise world prices for the oil that remains on the market.


                  yeah .. and there is still the Urals brand .. so I know all these names well :)
                  crises have been in this world more than once. I don’t know something, so that some more or less significant supplier (I suppose you meant the oil producer, and not the oil trader) went bankrupt. the cost of oil production in the sands of Arabia (I have data from 2006-2008) is about 10-15 dollars per barrel. Russian colleagues have about 30-35 dollars. it’s hard to imagine someone going bankrupt, even if oil falls to $ 50. another matter of the state, whose budget includes oil production revenues. Russia will go bankrupt in one fell swoop, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates may ..
                  but the conclusion you make is wrong .. which is contrary to all economic science. when your income falls due to falling prices, then the first thing you seek is to increase the production of goods. this has always been and will be- the price of oil will fall, and states that are very dependent on oil sales will try to sell it even more to make up for shortfalls in income. according to the law of the market, the greater the supply with constant demand, the lower the price .. accordingly, the mechanism will be like that. the crisis in America, production is declining, so less energy is needed, then there is more oil on the market .. so its price is falling. the price is falling, countries critically dependent on oil exports are increasing their production. the oil market is even bigger. prices are even lower..vuala..classical unregulated market
                  1. Gluxar_
                    Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 23: 03 New
                    +1
                    Quote: uno
                    crises have been in this world more than once. I don’t know something, so that some more or less significant supplier (I suppose you meant the oil producer, and not the oil trader) went bankrupt. the cost of oil production in the sands of Arabia (I have data from 2006-2008) is about 10-15 dollars per barrel. Russian colleagues have about 30-35 dollars. it’s hard to imagine someone going bankrupt, even if oil falls to $ 50. another matter of the state, whose budget includes oil production revenues. Russia will go bankrupt in one fell swoop, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates may ..

                    Unfortunately, what you just found in the search engine is not enough to fill the gaps in your knowledge. And you do not read well even what is written above. The cost of production of Saudi Arabia is the lowest on the panel. However, its production is just a drop in the sea of ​​oil producers. It is important what the cost of production in the United States and Canada. It’s not about SA. And besides, the Saudis are used to living well, and they will not give up on this. They have all social programs tied to oil revenues and as soon as they are reduced. the country will plunge into chaos. Only increased funding for the social sphere, the Saudis were able to extinguish the fire of the Arab spring in their country.
                    In addition, if you do not have enough of my opinion, read the calculations of the last OPEC meeting, which was held recently. Maybe all the same people who create this market will be able to convince you that they are right, and not you. Do not be lazy, read about the significance of the price level of $ 100 for all OPEC countries.
                    Quote: uno
                    but the conclusion you make is wrong .. which is contrary to all economic science. when your income falls due to falling prices, then the first thing you seek is to increase the production of goods. this has always been and will be- the price of oil will fall, and states that are very dependent on oil sales will try to sell it even more to make up for shortfalls in income. according to the law of the market, the greater the supply with constant demand, the lower the price .. accordingly, the mechanism will be like that. the crisis in America, production is declining, so less energy is needed, then there is more oil on the market .. so its price is falling. the price is falling, countries critically dependent on oil exports are increasing their production. the oil market is even bigger. prices are even lower..vuala..classical unregulated market

                    I already understood and even wrote about the level of your economic knowledge. but again, so as not to be repeated, look at the example of realistically organizing hundreds of thousands and even millions of people. it is called OPEC, and see how the real economy works and not the fantasies of your consciousness. Examples of grain or dairy unions in Europe will also be instructive for you.

                    And stop trying to write something about the economy. we are still talking on an analytical resource. By your reasoning, you will not only dishonor yourself, but you will also pollute the resource. Nobody even bothers to read nonsense.
                    1. a
                      a 29 May 2013 23: 09 New
                      -2
                      I give up everything :) I don’t have the strength to laugh more at your economic knowledge :))) I have never met such economic stupidity :) Lana, there are mainly military people here who are not strong in the economy :) but you, with your attempts to show yourself an economic guru is something :)) my applause :) of such a clown as you rarely see :)
                      say goodbye to sim ..
                      1. Gluxar_
                        Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 02: 00 New
                        +1
                        Quote: uno
                        I give up everything :) I don’t have the strength to laugh more at your economic knowledge :))) I have never met such economic stupidity :) Lana, there are mainly military people here who are not strong in the economy :) but you, with your attempts to show yourself an economic guru is something :)) my applause :) of such a clown as you rarely see :) forgiveness for a sim ..

                        Bye. Do not forget to change your nickname and start all over again. I do not wish you success, since I am sure of your ideological and civilizational failure.
                2. a
                  a 29 May 2013 21: 39 New
                  -1
                  Quote: uno
                  the oil market is even bigger. prices are even lower..vuala..classical unregulated market


                  Any university student who hasn’t slept at lectures on macroeconomics knows about this.
                  I must tell you that American companies do not produce oil in America, with the exception of the Gulf of Mexico. all oil fields in America are closed. in America, only shale gas is produced, which does not directly affect the cost of oil. back in Canada, oil is extracted from the so-called oil sands in Alberta. as for Europe, oil is extracted mainly in the North Sea. I don’t take into account medium-sized deposits in Romania, because there is little production. by the way, oil producers in the server sea did not get into a fuss even when oil in the markets cost $ 8 per barrel ..
                  as for the capture of deposits in the same Libya .. very entertaining .. so someone captured the fields and pumps oil for free? :))
                  1. Gluxar_
                    Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 23: 13 New
                    +1
                    Quote: uno
                    Any university student who has not slept at lectures on macroeconomics knows this. I must tell you that American companies do not produce oil in America, with the exception of the Gulf of Mexico. all oil fields in America are closed. in America, only shale gas is produced, which does not directly affect the cost of oil. even in Canada, oil is extracted from the so-called oil sands in Alberta. as for Europe, oil is extracted mainly in the North Sea. I don’t take into account medium-sized deposits in Romania, because there is little production. by the way, the oil miners in the server sea didn’t get bogged down even when oil in the markets cost $ 8 per barrel .. as for the capture of oil fields in the same Libya .. very interesting .. so someone captured the oil fields and pumps oil for free? :))

                    You again put yourself in a stupid position.
                    US oil is produced in 48 states. Do you know how many states in the USA? In total, the United States produces more than 7 barrels of oil per day. This is a little less than Saudi Arabia. In the next 000 years, the United States will become the largest oil producer. According to their own forecasts. But this, of course, is at a price level in the region of $ 000 per barrel.
                    In addition, you are absolutely gram-free in understanding the oil market and do not take into account the role of Western multinationals in world oil production.
                    In general, everything is clear to everyone, but you better not go online, but go to school.

                    Regarding Libya, yes, today its oil is being paid for the provision of military assistance to NATO countries. Many deposits fell into the hands of extremists who sell it to European companies at a political discount. The people of Libya receive only miserable crumbs from oil exports, in relation to the times of Gaddafi.
                    For your development, I will reveal another secret to you. and Syrian oil, from wells seized by terrorists, is sold to Turkey at a price of $ 16-18 per barrel. The West never helps anyone for free, about morality I wrote above, it has not been there for more than a century.
            2. a
              a 29 May 2013 20: 14 New
              -2
              Quote: Gluxar_
              The dollar exists only as a reference to the mutual settlements of oil exporters and consumers. There is even such a concept petrodollar, which better reflects the value of green papers. In dollars, oil will not fall in any way, moreover, with the collapse of the United States, prices will rise to $ 400 and $ 800, as US hyperinflation will gobble up the solvency of the paper



              Ltd! Yes, you simply suffer from gigantomania :)) and to be honest, you would not be dishonored by your supposedly economic knowledge.
              The dollar is, as yet, an internationally recognized currency. many states hold their gold and foreign exchange reserves in it. in fact, it is a reserve world currency, whether we want it or not. about its overvaluation should not be very happy. There are many ways to fix this. I think that Americans are pragmatic enough not to bring the situation to something extreme. all the more so, they already had such a situation in their lives and they left it normally. Of course, some dumb-headed creature may come to power and ruin everything (such as Bush Jr.), but this is not believed much. the instinct of self-preservation is strong in America.
              and now educate me on the mechanism of increasing the cost of oil to 400 or even $ 800 per barrel during the collapse of America :) it will be very interesting :) if you prove that this is possible, then you would have to give the Nobel Prize in economics :))
              but seriously, your words show that you don’t cut anything in the economy :))
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 21: 14 New
                +2
                Quote: uno
                The dollar is, as yet, an internationally recognized currency. many states hold their gold and foreign exchange reserves in it. in fact, it is a reserve world currency, whether we want it or not. about its overvaluation should not be very happy. There are many ways to fix this. I think that Americans are pragmatic enough not to bring the situation to something extreme. all the more so, they already had such a situation in their lives and they left it normally. Of course, some dumb-headed creature may come to power and ruin everything (such as Bush Jr.), but this is not believed much. the instinct of self-preservation is strong in America. and now educate me on the mechanism of increasing the cost of oil to 400 or even $ 800 per barrel during the collapse of America :) it will be very interesting :) if you prove that this is possible, then you would have to give the Nobel Prize in economics :)) and if seriously, your words show that you don’t cut anything in the economy :))

                Everything is very simple. Such a mechanism is called dollar inflation, largely thanks to it today such high oil prices. Although oil was more expensive in the 70s with regard to its purchasing power, at today's prices it is somewhere around $ 140-150 per barrel.
                How will this happen? By October 2013, the US budget deficit will again approach the upper bar of $ 16,7 trillion. The Senate will not approve the increase in public debt and the country will be forced to plead bankrupt and default. Hundreds of programs to stimulate a dying economy will be cut immediately, and all social programs to support the population will be cut. The remaining enterprises will be closed and the unemployed will grow at times. Of course, with the collapse of the economy, all collateral payments at both the interbank market and all intergovernmental agreements will immediately depreciate. People will try to save at least some of their savings and translate them into real goods, but the goods simply will not be enough to ensure all the available monetary emission of the dollar. Accordingly, hyperinflation starts. Tomorrow, a gold bullion today will rise in price in dollar terms by half, then by another three, and so on, to match the money supply with respect to real goods. As you know, the entire economy with all its innovations and real estate, brands and other nonsense costs around $ 45 trillion, and the world’s money supply is many times greater. And if we take into account that the US GDP is 80% of the services sector, then real goods in the country will be 9-10 trillion by force, only with a government debt of 16 trillion.
                From here, after two weeks of tidying up and closing the exchanges, if they open at all, the dollar quotes against the euro will change from today's 1,2940 to 24,5889. Which is equivalent to oil. Even in the face of a decrease in its relative cost, it will exceed both $ 400 and $ 800 per barrel.
                This was already in Russia after the collapse of the USSR, when sausage from 3,2 went up to today's 370 rubles, if you do not forget the denomination.

                Regarding the pragmatism of the Americans, tell this to their public debt and ask at the same time what sources of its decline exist in the world.

                As for the gold and foreign exchange reserves, now all countries are trying to accumulate precisely gold, the share of the dollar is sharply reduced. and this in the context of the fact that until 2000 the dollar was 100% dominant.
                The United States is still strong, but 20 years ago they were the only super power and could not use it to change the whole world for themselves. they profiled their chance.
                1. a
                  a 29 May 2013 21: 47 New
                  -2
                  Quote: Gluxar_
                  How will this happen? By October 2013, the US budget deficit will again approach the upper bar of $ 16,7 trillion. The Senate will not approve the increase in public debt and the country will be forced to plead bankrupt and default.


                  ha.ha..you tell me when the United States thread declared bankrupt? :) Americans are very pragmatic people. the principles of checks and balances really work in this country (unlike our country). and no matter what the crisis in the country, it never led to such shocking consequences as ours. even the crisis of the 30s. and there is no reason to believe that in the future everything will be different.
                  and you draw some kind of apocalyptic picture that definitely won’t happen in this life .. even the powerful crisis of 2008, America experienced quite calmly :)
                  1. Gluxar_
                    Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 23: 24 New
                    +2
                    Quote: uno
                    the principles of checks and balances (in contrast to our country) really work for this country. and no matter what the crisis in the country, it never led to such shocking consequences as ours. even the crisis of the 30s. and there is no reason to believe that in the future everything will be different. and you are painting some kind of apocalyptic picture that definitely will not happen in this life .. even the powerful crisis of 2008, America survived quite calmly :)

                    Do you know something about the Great Depression of the 30s? Maybe you have studied the influence of US centrism as part of building a global society? In the 30s, the United States could only survive due to the fact that all the wealth of Europe exported from there during the First World War was concentrated in the country. And the USA could overcome its recession only in the 40s due to the outbreak of the Second World War. However, by the 70s, the United States was on the verge of collapse, then thanks to the Jamaican monetary system, capitalism and the United States were able to avoid collapse and laid the foundation for the current crisis. It was only the USSR’s tragedy that made it possible to somehow provide the dollar with real maintenance for the Soviet legacy, but this was only enough for 9 years and already in 2001 the first dotcom bubble burst and the unsecured emission flowed into the "best country" mortgage market. By 2008, all available funds were exhausted and the beginning of the end was revealed ... to this day the dollar issue is supported by the United States, but it is simply impossible to correct the situation ... well, unless the Americans stop eating for eight years.
                2. a
                  a 29 May 2013 22: 01 New
                  0
                  Quote: Gluxar_
                  The gold bullion standing today will rise in price in dollar terms by half tomorrow, then by another three


                  and here you are right. but SSHA has the largest gold reserve in the world. it is almost 10 times more than in Russia. so I think if there is a dollar devaluation it’s not critical .. it’s not that the oil grows to 400 bucks :)
                  the presence of a public debt even as huge as that of America does not lead to the fact that everything will collapse in one moment. Moreover, there are a lot of measures to reduce this public debt. there are soft ways, there are hard. Now Obama is acting in soft ways. in a difficult situation, it will be possible to take advantage of tough ones .. for example, the devaluation of the dollar. let's say 50 percent ... the national debt will be reduced by half practically by the stroke of the pen. at the same time, the gold and currency reserves of countries that hold dollars are reduced. First of all, China, Japan, Russia. well yes. it will hit America itself .. there will be a crisis. but America has experienced crises more than once and nothing, as you can see, is quite alive :) Bernanke didn’t drop another dollar for one simple reason: America has a AAA credit rating. and this allows her to easily finance her public debt through an influx of investments. while money from Russia leaves tens of billions of dollars annually, America’s high credit rating allows it to receive tens of billions of dollars per month (a specific amount ranges from 40 to 60 billion). per month!!! With this money, investors buy US Treasury bonds. and after a certain period they get their money back. Yes, and with a small income. Moreover, I can tell you that if the crisis is global, then all money will be invested in 2 financial instruments: gold and US Treasury bonds. and it will be in the hands of the USA .. and you are unemployed, course 24 .. you are a storyteller :))
                  about a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves in the dollar, another duck. even our central bank practically does not change the ratio of reserve currencies .. I'm really silent about China :) where are the facts? or would you just blurt out a thread? :))
                  1. Gluxar_
                    Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 23: 52 New
                    +2
                    Quote: uno
                    about a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves in the dollar, another duck. even our central bank practically does not change the ratio of reserve currencies .. I'm really silent about China :) where are the facts? or would you just blurt out a thread? :))

                    You wrote nonsense again.
                    I will answer you point by point. Regarding the reduction of public debt by Obama. He does not reduce it by soft methods. He is only trying to reduce new borrowings by at least 1-2% per year. And the US is already raining because of this. tools to return this money does not exist.
                    About the gold reserve. That the United States has the largest gold reserves, but not all of this gold belongs to the United States. The same Germany wants to return its gold from the United States, as well as several other countries. And the US stock itself is a drop in the ocean of all the gold in the world. The bulk of gold is in the population. The total reserves of gold mined in the world ranging from 170 tons to 000 million tons. And US reserves are only from 2,5% to 0,3% of the world's gold, depending on estimates.

                    If the United States defaults, rather than a devaluation that does not affect anything except the numerical ratio of payments, the United States will collapse. This is what the whole conversation is going on. Moreover, the United States may simply refuse to pay its debts. But the US problem is not that they owe 16 trillion to someone. The United States alone owes more than $ 20 trillion to its retirees, $ 20 trillion to its healthcare system for the next 32 years, and $ 14 trillion to state debts. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. It's all about trust, if China, the EU or Angola understand what a dollar you can buy a hamburger today. And tomorrow only half will take it from you. Moreover, all property in the United States is mortgaged and pledged in dollars, which means you devalue it at least fifty times, and the plant will fall in price by 50 times, and the same Chinese will simply buy up the whole of the United States and take it out to themselves. Or Europeans or Arabs or Europeans who have their own problems.
                    Your conclusions about the global financial system reek of complete illiteracy and a lack of understanding of the situation, you are just repeating the mantras from the State Department like zombies ... buying US Treasury bonds or gold. No one will buy these papers. US Treasuries have been bought by the Japanese in recent years, for the purchase of which Japan itself has been issuing its treasury bonds, which in turn is being bought by the central bank of England, which for this purpose issues its treasury bonds. China has long been reducing the purchase of treasuries, and in every possible way is distributing its dollar reserves to African countries to lobby for its projects. but he cannot help but buy them. since the United States has long had nothing to pay China for the goods it supplies to the United States, except for these treasuries. However, since 2011, the EU and Japan, as well as a number of OPEC countries, have become the main holders of the US government debt, as these are countries exporting petroleum products and industrial goods to the United States. These are no longer produced in the states themselves and the United States again has nothing to pay other than these treasuries .

                    This is the main reason for the collapse of the United States, and not because the bloody gebe is so or I regret it. This is an objective process that took several decades to form. This is a structural mistake of liberal capitalism in the context of the politics of neo-liberalism. And the United States is simply the center of this world, which is flying into the abyss.
                    By the way, Russia holds only 2,8% of the US government debt, and then to ensure its trade operations with counterparties.
            3. a
              a 29 May 2013 20: 20 New
              -2
              Quote: Gluxar_
              As for Russia, we produce almost everything that we need inside the state and we have no dependence on the United States


              Well, more about this :) for example, we produce computers, telephones, network equipment, system programs, medicines, new materials ..
              sorry, but we still can’t feed ourselves and provide the necessary medicines. the country still imports 40% of consumed beef and 30% of pork .. I’m silent about the production of drugs .. there’s a general shock situation
              it’s me, brought examples that quickly came to mind ..
              what they sell to us, push, lend, so it’s a plus to them .. they make money for us .. a lot of money. and loans just put us on the needle.
              as for my economic knowledge, I dare you to assure them much more than yours .. from your words you can draw only one conclusion, you have zero economic knowledge :))
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 22: 37 New
                +3
                Quote: uno
                Well, more about this :) for example, we produce computers, telephones, network equipment, system programs, medicines, new materials ..

                Yes, all of the above is done in Russia. Micron manufacturing board, Sitronics company, NIIGRP Plasma OJSC, Polygon Research and Production Enterprise - Development, production and implementation of telecommunication equipment, data and video information systems, ADELSY - production of graphic stations, servers, industrial computers, complex automation of small and medium-sized business, LLC "UFATEK" - Development of electronics and software, LLC "R-sensors", OJSC "Plant PROTON-MIET" - Manufacturer of electronic equipment. The main industries are: production of printed circuit boards; assembly production, including sections of SMT, output and volumetric installation; manufacture of metal enclosures and parts, Network Systems Group - modular multi-protocol routers and packet switches for IP, VPN, Frame Relay, X.25 networks, Aquarius Group - Manufacture of servers, graphic stations, storage systems, QTECH - Manufacture of telecommunication equipment, NTC SIMOS CJSC, Alasel Group of Companies, MIKROTEK - equipment for radio and television broadcasting, NIC SE and NK LLC - is one of the leading developers and manufacturers in the field of supercomputers with original architecture in Russia. SIC S ... And hundreds more enterprises only in this area. moreover, many are unique and have no analogues in the world.
                Regarding the import of meat and poultry, over the past 15 years it has decreased in relation to its own production from 62% in the year 97 to 36% in 2011 and continues to rapidly decline. It is worth noting that an increase in the income of Russians leads to an increase in consumption. In addition, the main suppliers of meat to Russia are the CIS countries and Brazil. and do not forget that meat production in Russia is not meat production in the USSR, since the main producers republics were Belarusian and Ukrainian. so Russia is creating new production.

                You remembered only weak points, and there are only a few. The process of import substitution is taking huge steps and only the blind man does not see this.
                So the collapse of the United States on the issue of import substitution of Western goods will not even get a sharp edge.
                It is clear that provocateurs like you read other mantras, but no one believes your tears anymore.
                1. a
                  a 29 May 2013 22: 52 New
                  0
                  Quote: Gluxar_
                  Yes, all of the above is done in Russia.
                  So the collapse of the United States on the issue of import substitution of Western goods will not even get a sharp edge .........
                  It is clear that provocateurs like you read other mantras, but no one believes your tears anymore.


                  Another pearl. all computers that are manufactured in Russia, all network equipment is based on American components .. if there were no processors from Intel, AMD, Motorola ... servers, graphics systems ... the same thing ... domestic microelectronics are more likely dead than alive . and all the advanced developments are made in America. neither Japan nor Europe can do all this. I'm not talking about poor Russia. America has already banned the supply of equipment for the production of supercomputers with us. they will want to ban the supply of domestic processes .. and that's it ... we will sit with junk .. :)
                  meat imports are declining..birds are almost stopped..but no more .. the percentage of imported meat has long been hanging above the 30% bar .. it would be interesting to hear from you what it means "continues to decline rapidly" :) :) rapidly about how? :) how many percent per year? or again one boltology :))
                  I’m not a provocateur .. I just have my own point of view .. and I express it .. if I’m a provocateur, then you’re just crazy, claiming that we have hundreds of unique enterprises that have no analogues in the world :))
                  1. Gluxar_
                    Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 02: 30 New
                    +1
                    Quote: uno
                    Another pearl. all computers that are manufactured in Russia, all network equipment is based on American components .. if there were no processors from Intel, AMD, Motorola ... servers, graphics systems ... the same thing ... domestic microelectronics are more likely dead than alive . and all the advanced developments are made in America. neither Japan nor Europe can do all this. I'm not talking about poor Russia. America has already banned the supply of equipment for the production of supercomputers with us. they will want to ban the supply of domestic processes .. and that's it ... we will sit with junk .. :)

                    An American component has not existed for about 10 years. Russia has been manufacturing all components for computers in its own country. You just confuse production computers with custom PCs and tablets, the latter being a segment of entertainment but not production. Regarding supercomputers, Russia successfully builds them herself and in sufficient quantities, moreover with unique architecture, and not just chasing peak frequencies.
                    In Russia, there are enough supercomputers that work great. Maximum power is certainly not the best in the world, only 1 petaflops. The main thing is that they work for the Russian economy.
                    Here is the latest example from May 27th.
                    Supercomputers at Belgorod State University helped to create highly flexible titanium
                    http://www.cnews.ru/news/line/index.shtml?2013/05/27/530075
                    Regarding software, the revenue of Russian software suppliers to foreign markets grew in 2012 to $ 4,7 billion. This is so by the way.

                    As for Masya, here's some more news from the last days, namely from May 23.

                    Meat production in the Russian Federation in January-April increased by 27% to 507 thousand tons
                    http://www.myaso-portal.ru/novosti-otrasli/39214/
                    Vakinskoye-Agro (Ryazan Region) is building a second phase of a dairy farm
                    http://www.ryazanreg.ru/news/archive/2013/14381/
                    In sec. New Sloboda of the Tambov region opened a dairy complex for 1176 heads of milking herd
                    http://www.tambov.gov.ru/press/news/view/article-1369643767.html
                    Duck farm "Donstar" (Rostov region) starts work
                    http://www.donland.ru/Donland/Pages/View.aspx?pageid=92218&ItemID=45622&mid=8379
                    3
                    Livestock of the Chechen Republic at a new stage of development
                    http://www.myaso-portal.ru/novosti-otrasli/38440/
                    In the village of Rostovtsevo, Yaroslavl region, a meat processing plant was opened
                    http://www.yarregion.ru/Pages/news.aspx?newsID=3102
                    In the village of Isimovo (Bashkiria) a new dairy farm was opened
                    http://presidentrb.ru/rus/press_serv/rabochie_poezdki/54965.html
                    The implementation of the largest project in the agricultural sector is being completed in the Novosibirsk region
                    http://www.nso.ru/Lists/News/DispForm.aspx?ID=7179&Source=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Enso
                    % 2Eru% 2FPages% 2Fdefault% 2Easpx
                    Agrofirm Kalitva LLC has opened a dairy complex for 2200 cattle in the Voronezh region
                    http://www.govvrn.ru/wps/portal/AVO/wcmContent?WCM_QUERY=/voronezh/avo/main/new+
                    170520132057 & presentationtemplate = vrnOnePeaceOfNewsPt & CONTENTCACHE = NONE

                    and these are the events for the month of May of this year. Is that enough for you to wipe yourself and go wash yourself?
            4. Egen
              Egen 30 May 2013 13: 45 New
              0
              Quote: Gluxar_
              In dollars, oil will not fall in any way, moreover, with the collapse of the United States, prices will rise to 400 $ and 800 $, as US hyperinflation will gobble up the solvency of the paper.

              Quote: Gluxar_
              the karhe of the dollar and the possibility of free printing of “analogues of material goods”, the Western economy will lose its competitiveness in relation to the Russian

              true but not so simple :) The same China is largely tied to the United States and others, both in export and in import ...
              Nobody has come up with a global model of relationships :)
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 14: 35 New
                0
                Quote: Egen
                true but not so simple :) The same China is largely tied to the United States and others both in export and import ... Nobody has come up with a global model of interconnections :)

                Of course, everything is not at all simple in the current conditions. Although there is no particular difficulty in creating a new financial system, the only difficulty is how to survive the gap between the collapse of the current and the “deployment of a new one”.
                Although the first steps have already been taken since 2009, a certain amount of interstate trade between Russia and the CIS countries has been converted to mutual settlements in national currencies, the same is with China and a number of other countries.
                Although the main problem, of course, is that the main trade is with the EU countries, which are heavily tied to the dollar, even though they print their euro.
                However, the true essence of the problems is still different, the imbalances of the economies will not go away by themselves, which means someone will have to tighten their belts ... but a hungry man with an aircraft carrier at the pier is very dangerous ...
        2. a
          a 29 May 2013 18: 34 New
          0
          Quote: Gluxar_
          Understanding this state of things, true EU grants are already reorienting to Russia leaving the United States. An example is Germany, which does not support any US initiatives both against Russia and the Middle East. Germans understand that the imminent collapse of the United States will hit the entire EU, which certainly can not stand it


          regular fantasies. last year, relations with Germany are the worst, probably in the last 15 years.
          and the fact that the EU allowed the supply of weapons to Syrian terrorists apparently shows you the reorientation of Europe to Russia. But in the EU the Germans and the French rule.


          Quote: Gluxar_
          As for China, the demographic policy of the last 50 years has led to the fact that today the number of people emerging from reproductive age has already exceeded 50%


          China can easily abolish the “one family, one child” rule and, no doubt, they will quickly restore their demographics. and this is a threat to us, very big.
          1. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 19: 56 New
            +1
            Quote: uno
            regular fantasies. last year, relations with Germany are the worst, probably in the last 15 years. But the fact that the EU allowed the supply of weapons to Syrian terrorists apparently shows you the reorientation of Europe to Russia. But in the EU the Germans and the French rule.

            Germany, Austria and a number of European states voted against the lifting of the embargo. However, Germany is still a vassal of the United States and is just beginning to take its first independent steps.
            You think like a schoolboy idealist, if, when affirming the growth of relations between Russia and Germany, you think that the latter will immediately dance to our tune. The real world is much more complicated, even Belarus has not yet recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But politics is politics, and the cooperation of a number of European states with Russia in recent years speaks more. The dynamics are important.
            Speaking about the deterioration of relations, you need to understand regarding what they have worsened, relative to 2011. relative to 2004, today's relations are at an unprecedented level. these are temporary recessions; the general trend dynamics is important.
            Quote: uno
            China can easily abolish the “one family, one child” rule and, no doubt, they will quickly restore their demographics. and this is a threat to us, very big.

            This is a threat to your mind. Are you always afraid of who is bigger than you? no matter what he does? The problem with China is not a decrease in population, but structural imbalances. But it is beneficial for us that there are more Chinese, which means more consumers for our goods.
            After the collapse of the United States and, as a result of the EU, China will be one of the mainstays of our economic well-being. Although China will suffer much more because of the collapse of the United States, since US exports account for more than 22% of all exports from China, and taking into account the re-export of Chinese goods from Hong Kong to the United States, this is already more than 35% of all China's exports.
            As regards exclusively the country's population, but all of China's economic growth affects only about 200 million Chinese in coastal cities. The rest of the country’s part is not so developed and the situation there is much more severe. A super complex threat to China is the environmental issue and social change. The Chinese no longer want a beggarly life and rely on a career rather than a family. one order cannot solve the problem, moreover, it is no longer possible to turn the tide. since the pressure of an aging population on the social structure of society will only increase. Also, the problem of pension provision for the majority of the working population today has not been resolved. All this and much that I did not write about and will lead to a decrease in the population by more than half by 2050. however, this is only a forecast, not a fact. But the trend again gives an idea of ​​who is moving where.

            Another thing is that what's the difference how many Chinese. No one is afraid of fear. But you can be afraid. But fear needs concrete actions, not just a large population.
            1. a
              a 29 May 2013 20: 26 New
              -1
              Quote: Gluxar_
              Germany, Austria and a number of European states voted against the lifting of the embargo. However, Germany is still a vassal of the United States and is just beginning to take its first independent steps.


              there is no reason to think that Germany would prefer Russia to America :) they are united by much more than would possibly unite us and Germany. Moreover, the Germans and I have different cultures. America is closer to them. moreover, we must take into account that when we talk about America that they are Anglo-Saxons, the word SAXES is a kind of German tribes living in the territory of present-day Saxony .. it’s easier to imagine that Russia will attack Germany and subjugate it than what Germany once- or turn away from America .. I can’t promise that this will not happen at all .. but certainly not in this life :))
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 00: 01 New
                +2
                Quote: uno
                there is no reason to think that Germany would prefer Russia to America :) they are united by much more than would possibly unite us and Germany. Moreover, the Germans and I have different cultures. America is closer to them. moreover, we must take into account that when we talk about America that they are Anglo-Saxons, the word SAXES is a kind of German tribes living in the territory of present-day Saxony .. it’s easier to imagine that Russia will attack Germany and subjugate it than what Germany once- or turn away from America .. I can’t promise that this will not happen at all .. but certainly not in this life :))

                Germany and the United States are united only by the defeat of Hitler and the occupation of Germany by the troops of the USA, France and England. Today, only the United States remained military bases. Germany was only able to receive partial sovereignty on October 3, 1990. It takes time to gain full sovereignty. however, the trend is visible to everyone who is aware of the topic.
                Regarding culture, it does not exist in the United States. There is mass culture, which is a global phenomenon. Germany and Russia have a common history and culture. You are ashamed not to know this. Even one of the greatest Russian empresses was German in origin.

                And as for your ideas and dreams, it’s already clear to everyone ... a special topic. You need to learn English.
            2. a
              a 29 May 2013 20: 34 New
              0
              Quote: Gluxar_
              The Italians no longer want a beggarly life and rely on a career rather than a family. one order cannot solve the problem, moreover, it is no longer possible to turn the tide. since the pressure of an aging population on the social structure of society will only increase


              another illiteracy. China has a very strong tradition. for example, they are still looking forward to their new year .. one of these traditions is a family with many children. she was, is and will be. Now she is drowned out with frantic fines. And as soon as the strains for the second child are canceled, they will begin to multiply again. yes, in cities, people have become somewhat different. but the main population of China is rural and the traditions there are very strong ..
              Well, about the pressure mechanism of the suffering population that can lead to a decrease in the population of China by half, you certainly tell? :) how exactly this will happen :)
              while you tell, I will tell you that when the population begins to grow again, and the benefits will not be enough for him where can the Chinese look ?? to new territories .. and the most accessible of them is the territory of Russia.
              I will tell you such a story. the year before last, in China, Chinese guides were detained, who guided tours for the Chinese who came to Moscow .. so it turned out that they told their Chinese that the Far East and Eastern Siberia were Chinese lands illegally captured by Russia .. so .. I think that not everything will be so smooth with China ..
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 00: 15 New
                +1
                Quote: uno
                but the main population of China is rural and the traditions are very strong there .. well, about the mechanism of pressure of the suffering population that can lead to a decrease in the population of China by half, you certainly tell? :) how exactly this will happen :)

                I have already answered you. read, everything is described above. But the problem is precisely in social stratification. This is the most important problem of China after the ecology, and even the most important one. Only 1/6 of the population is related to the growth of China over the past 30 years, and only a part of these people get their benefits from this. These same "new" Chinese are mentally different and they will not want egalitarianism in which case, this is a time bomb. Already today we can talk about two different China, and we will not talk about China and Taiwan.
                Quote: uno
                while you tell, I will tell you that when the population begins to grow again, and the benefits will not be enough for him where can the Chinese look ?? to new territories .. and the most accessible of them is the territory of Russia.

                You highlight your ignorance again. When the Chinese begin to miss the "good" in your language, but in the normal language, when the pressure of social obligations begins to exceed the ability of the economy to cover the social needs of the population ... the Chinese will have a crisis. This phenomenon has little to do with resource supply and its essence lies in the mainstream of the problem of consumption and distribution of goods produced. This is a situation when a simple worker must feed himself, two outside pensioners and his own family. This problem does not bear any relation to resources and territories. Also now in Russia, we have many resources, but getting them is difficult and expensive. We even have money today, which was not in the 90s, but it’s still very difficult to develop, because we need infrastructure and working hands.
                China can solve this problem if it already begins to reduce consumption and increase labor productivity. but it is precisely these measures that lead to an economic crisis and an increase in unemployment, when consumption decreases, demand for products decreases, when labor productivity decreases, then excess workers are fired and replaced by machines and robots. China, for normal financing of the social sphere, needs an annual GDP growth of at least 8%. With the stagnation or recession of the economy, the entire social framework of society will collapse and the country will face a choice. Either leveling and growth at the expense of own resources and own demand, or each for himself ... who is stronger is right. And this is the internal problem of Chinese society; it will not work out with an external impulse. There is another way. It is to kill all senior citizens and extra people ... but this is already from the field of delirium.
                Quote: uno
                I will tell you such a story

                Your stupid stories are of no interest to anyone, you better learn the real story, then you will write less nonsense.
        3. a
          a 29 May 2013 18: 34 New
          -1
          Quote: Gluxar_
          environmental problems and the subsequent economic crisis after the collapse of the main buyer of Chinese goods will lead to a sharp decrease in the population of China by more than half in the next 40 years


          Yes. China will fall into crisis if America collapses. but otherwise the level of delirium goes off scale. on what basis do you think that the population of China will be halved in 40 years? that is, in fact, 600-700 million ?? I think such an outcome is possible only in one case, if a major meteorite crashes into China. otherwise it is the fruit of a sick imagination.

          Quote: Gluxar_
          China has, and has been for thousands of years, its geopolitical space, the main rival of which is Japan and especially India. India can become the main player in this region by the middle of the 21st century.


          another hopelessly incorrect (to put it mildly so) judgment. with Japan, China has old accounts due to the Japanese seizure of China. China never encroached on the Japanese islands. Yes, and they do not need China. there is little territory, there are a lot of people in Japan. all the more resources on the Japanese islands are almost zero !! Yes, and somehow you need to get to them. almost the same with India. China does not claim to be Indian territory itself. there the dispute goes over non-essential (from a global point of view) territories in Tibet, the Himalayas. China does not really need the territory of India itself; again, there are a lot of people. and from a military point of view, it will not be easy to transfer troops through non-residential Tibet ... extreme mountain conditions, extended communications. generally rave.
          but the territory of Russia nearby is sparsely populated, with a large number of minerals and without special natural barriers. so where will they go then ???
          1. fisherman
            fisherman 29 May 2013 19: 43 New
            +1
            if I’m not mistaken, there is such a Chinese stratagem about the fighting of two tigers below ...

            I remember, and we tried on it when we fought against fascism ...

            The United States is just beginning to bend, respectively, China is just beginning to become the new hegemon (if I'm not mistaken, for the last 1000 years, for the umpteenth time)

            while we just win time ...
          2. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 20: 26 New
            +1
            Quote: uno
            Yes. China will fall into crisis if America collapses. but otherwise the level of delirium goes off scale. on what basis do you think that the population of China will be halved in 40 years? that is, in fact, 600-700 million ?? I think such an outcome is possible only in one case, if a major meteorite crashes into China. otherwise it is the fruit of a sick imagination.

            All forecasts are somewhat nonsense of the imagination, just in one case the will of one author dominates, and in the other the severity of facts.
            I did not say that China would die out, I said that the population could decline. And that's why. It is clear that there is a “one child” policy, but the social component is much more important, and it is the next one. Firstly, the population of China over the age of 40 has already exceeded 40% and will grow rapidly. This is due to the so-called baby boom generation, when modern technology of the 60s helped to defeat many deadly diseases of the childhood period. Since then, the population of Chiatya has begun to grow rapidly from 580 million to more than a billion. however, the policy of the 80s has sharply reduced the birth rate, which is now lower than in Russia relative to 1000 people. This led to such a trend as the aging of the bulk of the population, and this trend will only grow, by 2020, China will become the fastest growing state in the world. These are not my speculations, but UN reports. read if you want.
            All this is superimposed on an environmental moment, one of the most difficult in the world. China is really not only a factory in the world, but also a landfill. Soil contamination level is already critical, air and water are extreme. Even in the capital, the air pollution indicator exceeds the normal by more than 20 times. The fact that the Chinese can often be seen in masks is more often associated precisely with pollution, and not with bird flu.
            The third component of such a forecast in the social sphere. The Chinese themselves do not want to breed, they tried a well-fed life and do not want to spend money on a large family. Indeed, given the need to finance previous generations of workers who are retiring, and there will soon be about 40% of the population, the tax burden on workers will increase. Not everyone dares to start a family.
            And now add here the economic crisis that will come immediately after the collapse of the United States and the departure of all investors to their homes ...
            But this is only one of the forecasts based on real facts. The success of China over the past 30 years is largely due to both Den Xiaoping’s policies and the demographic boom of the 60s, when a huge mass of 60-year-olds who grew up from the 20s became just an instrument of China’s economic breakthrough in the 80s. besides, then the laws "one family, one child" and all the toughening of it were adopted. This freed up significant resources from the education of a new generation, to the needs of today's economy.
            However, the price of such a jump will also be high, this is the aging and departure of the huge mass of workers who create modern China, and they are replaced by the generation of zero, which was formed after the 80s and the ban on a second child. How easy it is to understand this generation at times the small number of generation 60s and is not able to fully finance the needs of the entire population.
            1. a
              a 29 May 2013 20: 39 New
              -1
              Quote: Gluxar_
              I did not say that China will die out, I said that the population could decrease ................ How easy it is to understand this generation at times of the small number of generation of the 60s and is not able to fully finance the needs of everything population.


              you said that it will be reduced by 2 times .. and this is 600-700 million .. mankind has not yet known this. even world wars could not lead to such a depopulation. otherwise I answered you earlier .. the level of your reasoning is just nonsense. maybe even clinical.
              you forgive me, I always correctly discuss with opponents .. but your views say that either this is just outright nonsense. or youthful ideas about the world :))
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 00: 19 New
                +2
                Quote: uno
                you said that it will be reduced by 2 times .. and this is 600-700 million .. mankind has not yet known this. even world wars could not lead to such a depopulation. otherwise I answered you earlier .. the level of your reasoning is just nonsense. maybe even clinical.

                This is quite possible with the development of the described scenario. Humanity has never known such a population growth rate. And about the extinction in the course of the history of Western Europe, there is such a topic as the "black plague", then from one third to half the Europeans died out. After 400 years, there was such an event as a conquista, then about 80% of the South American population died of smallpox brought by the Spaniards. As well as from the actions of the Western colonialists. After 200 years, the same thing happened with the North American Indians, who were exterminated by almost 95%, and hundreds of individual ethnic groups simply became extinct.

                I already strongly recommend that you study history, rather than uphold US interests.
          3. Gluxar_
            Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 20: 37 New
            +1
            Quote: uno
            another hopelessly incorrect (to put it mildly so) judgment. with Japan, China has old accounts due to the Japanese seizure of China. China never encroached on the Japanese islands. Yes, and they do not need China. there is little territory, there are a lot of people in Japan. all the more resources on the Japanese islands are almost zero !! Yes, and somehow you need to get to them. almost the same with India. China does not claim to be Indian territory itself. there the dispute goes over non-essential (from a global point of view) territories in Tibet, the Himalayas. China does not really need the territory of India itself; again, there are a lot of people. and from a military point of view, it will not be easy to transfer troops through non-residential Tibet ... extreme mountain conditions, extended communications. generally rave. but the territory of Russia nearby is sparsely populated, with a large number of minerals and without special natural barriers. so where will they go then ???

            They will move south, where they go for thousands of years. There is such a science as ethnogeography, in simplified terms, it studies the biological distribution of ethnic groups with respect to their features. So the Chinese do not live above certain latitudes, they cannot reproduce there and feel discomfort. Moreover, China itself is more than 80% sparsely populated, especially its northern provinces. The Chinese are heat-loving people.
            Never in its 3000 thousand-year history has China gone north; moreover, it has been fenced off from the North. It is not clear who built the Great Wall of China, but the Chinese never tried to relocate for it.
            The Chinese do not want to capture Japan, they want to destroy Japan as a possible competitor and get a number of strategically important islands for their defense. The same is true for India. It is China’s geopolitical competitor and a country that could block Chinese shipping to Africa. Hence the contradictions and the growing instability. Here, the Chinese do not mind capturing Vietnam, it is very pleasant to live there, the climate is suitable.

            But the Chinese do not have plans to capture the northern territory or claims to Russia, on the contrary, they need a reliable rear in their campaign to the south. The ultimate goal of which is the new colonization of Australia, and the climate is suitable for the Chinese and with untouched yet tremendous natural resources.
            1. a
              a 29 May 2013 20: 48 New
              -2
              Quote: Gluxar_
              They will move south, where they go for thousands of years .........

              But the Chinese do not have plans to capture the northern territory or claims to Russia, on the contrary, they need a reliable rear in their campaign to the south. The ultimate goal of which is the new colonization of Australia, and the climate is suitable for the Chinese and with untouched yet tremendous natural resources.


              Well, yes ..80% sparsely populated..of course..in Tibet, but in the Gobi desert you won’t live much :)) about 80% you frankly turned down .. and if so, it only emphasizes that they will begin expansion.
              South? Vietnam, Laos is no way out - small territories. the jungle .. there’s nowhere to live especially .. only in the coastal zone of Vietnam .. they will not move to Thailand .. there is a decent army. Yes, and America will not .. yes, and the territory there is not very much and its population is very decent .. so that there is a bummer with living space. so they have a direct path north ..
              say heat-loving .. in fact, in the decent territory of China in winter, the temperature did not go out at all than we do in Eastern Siberia and the Far East .. so they even normally experience low temperatures ...
              they may and may not pretend to Yakutia .. but the Far East, and the Vnutrotochnaya Siberia with their riches quite seduce ..
              no plans to conquer Russia? Yes, you probably have your own people in the Chinese authorities :))
              Australia .. well all .. it's time to end these delusional discussions :))
              1. Gluxar_
                Gluxar_ 30 May 2013 00: 42 New
                +2
                Quote: uno
                Well, yes ..80% sparsely populated..of course..in Tibet, but in the Gobi desert you won’t live much :)) about 80% you frankly turned down .. and if so, it only emphasizes that they will begin expansion.

                Tibet and Gobi are small examples. It’s easier to say that. Only the provinces of TianZi, Henan, Anhui, Zhejian, Hebei, Guangdong and several more are inhabited. All Chinese provinces are populated, but large areas are sparsely populated, especially northern ones. The Mongols can live there calmly and comfortably, but the Chinese are not comfortable there.
                The same territories of Eastern Siberia that all the time they want to throw the Chinese to the Chinese themselves are simply not interesting and not accessible. They cannot live there.
                Quote: uno
                South? Vietnam, Laos is no way out - small territories. the jungle .. there’s nowhere to live especially .. only in the coastal zone of Vietnam .. they will not move to Thailand .. there is a decent army. Yes, and America will not .. yes, and the territory there is not very much and its population is very decent .. so that there is a bummer with living space. so they have a direct path north ..

                Well, do not write nonsense. Throw these baby ravings out of your head. The real world is not a computer game and owning a larger territory does not greatly affect your well-being. The Chinese have their own territory, especially with the massive urbanization and future demographic problems. China is expanding south only for economic and defense purposes. He does not need territories, he needs a safe route for the delivery of raw materials from Africa. He needs a buffer zone from the USA and India, he needs Japan to not repeat the events of a century ago. China's growing military power is aimed at ensuring its security and is focused on building a powerful ocean fleet. On ships, as you might guess, it is not very convenient to travel around Siberia.

                Quote: uno
                no plans to conquer Russia? Yes, you probably have your own people in the Chinese authorities :)) Australia .. well, everything .. it's time to end these crazy discussions :))

                no and never was. They were always fenced off from the North and went to the South. If you know the history of China, especially the era of the Song and Ming dynasty, then you will recall that the main direction of the movement was the southern direction and the development of shipping. And in the era of the Tang Dynasty, the heyday of China, the zone of influence included almost all the territories of the modern states of Southeast Asia. so that so far China has not even realized the potential of its recovery in a southerly direction.
                And his attempt to bite off something from Russia is equivalent to the fact that, instead of re-creating its zone of influence in the form of the Eurasian Union, Russia will begin to make every effort to annex Ireland.
  3. Rattenfanger
    Rattenfanger 29 May 2013 15: 39 New
    +2
    The inevitability of the US collapse was obvious to the Reagan’s “golden” administration.
    The collapse of the USSR only delayed the inevitable for an indefinite time.
    And there is nothing strange about this: the crisis that hit the United States is a systemic one, and any attempts to solve it within the framework of the existing system only aggravates the situation. In its present form, this country is doomed.
    Another thing is that its true owners are cosmopolitan and the fate of the United States interests them, by and large, only until the moment when its very existence brings them any significant benefits.
  4. HAM
    HAM 29 May 2013 15: 57 New
    +4
    In my opinion, if the states fall, they will try to drown as much as possible and others along with themselves, so no one should relax.
  5. kush62
    kush62 29 May 2013 16: 21 New
    0
    Question: Why did the so-called “reset” of the USA and Russia fail, and is success possible in the future?
    answer: Russia is no longer a great power, so this is not so important.

    So I want to give Mr. wishful thinking.
    1. fisherman
      fisherman 29 May 2013 19: 36 New
      +1
      because the days of Native American Polynesian drooling at the sight of beautiful beads (red reset button) are already over ...

      :))
  6. slavik_gross
    slavik_gross 29 May 2013 16: 24 New
    +1
    actually, "Capitalism is still rotting from Soviet times," and when does it happen .....
    1. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 16: 36 New
      +3
      Quote: slavik_gross
      actually, "Capitalism is still rotting from Soviet times," and when does it happen .....

      Well, to be more objective, its decay in due time led to the creation of the Soviet Union ... but one ripe and fresh fruit in a box of rot will not make the seller a cashier ...
  7. Vtel
    Vtel 29 May 2013 16: 39 New
    +1
    USA is waiting for a slow decline

    Hotz quickly ah! We got these "green men" from the hut.
  8. horoh
    horoh 29 May 2013 18: 29 New
    +1
    I don’t understand one thing, if the Americans are as great as many people think, then why do they owe such a lot of money to the whole world?
    1. fisherman
      fisherman 29 May 2013 19: 39 New
      0
      moreover, they are keen to further increase this debt, which can be repaid not with gold-oil, but with printed green pieces of paper :)
    2. Gluxar_
      Gluxar_ 29 May 2013 22: 39 New
      +2
      Quote: horoh
      I don’t understand one thing, if the Americans are as great as many people think, then why do they owe such a lot of money to the whole world?

      They are considered great only by all kinds of marshy breeches. All little bit literate people knew and know the essence of Western life. Twirl or die.
  9. duchy
    duchy 29 May 2013 18: 40 New
    0
    Either the translation is clumsy, or the author’s thoughts got lost through stumps and decks in one crinkle. fellow
  10. Young Putin
    Young Putin 29 May 2013 21: 17 New
    0
    Frightening facts about the fall of the US economy
    Anyone who believes that the US economy has finally begun to come to its senses thanks to stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve and an almost zero credit rate, you just need to look at the statistics, say the authors of the ZeroHedge blog. US President Barack Obama and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke actually drove the country into a debt hole, from which it is not known how to get out.


    In 1980, the US national debt was less than one $ 1 trillion. Today it is rapidly approaching $ 17 trillion. In 1970, the total amount of government debt, business debts and consumer loans was about $ 2 trillion, today - more than $ 56 trillion.

    During Obama's first term, the US government accumulated more debt than it did under 42 previous US presidents combined.

    According to the World Bank, in 2001, US GDP accounted for 31,8% of all economic activity. In 2011, this number dropped to 21,6%.

    The United States has been falling in the ranking of the global competitiveness of the World Economic Forum for four consecutive years.

    Over 56 thousands of enterprises have closed in the US since 2001.

    In 1993, the United States had a trade surplus with Mexico of $ 1,6 billion; in 2010, a trade deficit of $ 61,6 billion appeared in trade with Mexico. In 1985, the trade deficit with China was about $ 6 million, and in 2012 - $ 315 billion. This is the largest trade deficit of two nations in world history.

    In 1950, more than 80% of US citizens had jobs. Today, unemployment is more than 35%. At the same time, 53% of those who still work earn less than $ 30 thousand per year.

    Small business is rapidly dying in America: only about 7% of all non-farm workers in the United States are self-employed. This is a record low level in the history of the country.

    In 1983, 95% of all US employee income was 62 cents of debt for every dollar, and in 2007 this figure rose to $ 1,48.

    One percent of the richest Americans have more capital than 90% of the rest of the citizens. According to Forbes, the 400 richest Americans are richer than the 150 million Americans combined. The six heirs to the WalMart empire own more money than the “low-income” third of all Americans combined.

    According to the US Census Bureau, more than 146 million Americans live in poverty or misery. The government was forced to introduce nearly 80 different social security programs for those in need.

    In 1965, only one in 50 Americans was part of the state program for medical care for the needy (Medicaid). Today, every sixth American is already in it, and in the near future this number will grow by another 16 million citizens.

    Currently, approximately 56 million Americans live on social security benefits. By 2035, this number is projected to jump to 91 million. The social security system will have a deficit of $ 134 trillion. dollar over the next 75 years.

    Over a million public school students in the United States are homeless. This is the first time in US history.

    The number of Americans receiving social protection as disabled exceeds the entire population of Greece, and the number of Americans living on food stamps exceeds the entire population of Spain.

    When Barack Obama first entered the White House, about 32 million Americans lived on food stamps. Now there are more than 47 million, more than the population of 25 states combined.
  11. kobussubok
    kobussubok 29 May 2013 23: 48 New
    0
    "What, do you think Russia is over? In, you! In!" On the one hand, it’s good that in the West they consider us not a great, not powerful and generally at least somewhat significant country! They are good at brainwashing ...! And they got drunk so that they themselves began to believe in their nonsense! The main thing is not to lose our faith in ourselves, and under the "noise" TO DEVELOP, TO DEVELOP, TO DEVELOP !!!
    1. kartalovkolya
      kartalovkolya 30 May 2013 07: 15 New
      +1
      Sorry, but what they consider Russia insignificant is for you and me. And they hide their real thoughts oh how deeply, but I agree with you: they really litter their brains. In general, the article is so-so, at the level of Goebbels propaganda, "not by the ability of such a number."
  12. 1goose3
    1goose3 30 May 2013 00: 01 New
    +3
    Russia is no longer a great power, so this is not so important.

    So a cheap opus.
    Regarding the statements about Russia, I will still say a few words. If the United States and NATO thought so, then there would not be any question on missile defense and on the advancement of NATO to the East. So we say one thing, and we think in a completely different way. lol