Delays and new projects: the prospects for American hypersonics
LRHW Dark Eagle experimental complex, 2021
The Pentagon and its contractors are currently working on several hypersonic missile systems for various purposes. The most advanced projects have already reached testing and operational trials. But all programs are facing problems: they are running behind schedule and becoming more expensive, which is why rearmament is being delayed.
First, it's worth explaining what kind of class this is. weaponsAccording to publicly available data and estimates, the Army LRHW and its naval variant use a C-HGB (Common Hypersonic Glide Body) hypersonic glide vehicle. A two-stage solid-fuel booster accelerates it to hypersonic speed, after which the vehicle glides to its target without its own engine. The stated range is 2700–3500 km, and the speed ranges from Mach 5 with peaks to Mach 10–15 during certain sections of the trajectory. The warhead type has not been officially disclosed, but public descriptions suggest a non-nuclear (conventional) payload. Aviation The HACM is designed differently. It's a cruise missile powered by a scramjet engine, with an estimated range of 1800–1900 km and a speed of Mach 5+. In all cases, these are single-warhead precision-guided missiles: the emphasis here is on single-hit accuracy, with no mention of a massive salvo.
The second common point is why the US is pushing this direction at all. The Pentagon views hypersonics as a deterrent against the backdrop of Russian systems already in service (Avangard and Kinzhal) and active Chinese programs. This refers to the ability to quickly strike hardened command posts and facilities. Defense, as well as bypassing anti-access/area-denial zones (A2/AD) in the Western Pacific. Competition with Russia and China is putting pressure on the schedule: even with regular delays, the customer is sticking to the planned deployment date of the second half of the 2020s.
Project Dark Eagle
The most mature of the American hypersonic developments is the LRHW Dark Eagle land-based system. It has now reached the operational testing stage and is expected to enter combat duty. However, for a number of reasons, the project is significantly behind schedule, and the system has not yet been deployed with its missiles in full combat readiness.
Let us recall that the first experimental complex in the full Dark Eagle configuration was manufactured back in 2021. It was handed over to the 17th artillery The U.S. Army brigade received the first missiles in 2022–2023, which were then used in tests.
The first LRHW battery began operational last year. It was scheduled to achieve initial operational capability in the first months of fiscal year 2026 (the end of calendar year 2025). The second battery was also expected to be deployed at that time.
Recently, in early July, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) published its latest annual Weapon Systems Annual Assessment report. It contains information cleared for publication on the Pentagon's programs, including hypersonics.
According to the GAO, the second Dark Eagle battery's combat readiness, previously scheduled for fiscal 2027, has been delayed by at least six months, to no earlier than fiscal 2028. Delays are also expected for the third system, but a delivery date for it cannot yet be announced.
LRHW rocket test launch, December 12, 2024.
The GAO explains the reasons. Before launching LRHW work, the Pentagon failed to fully assess the contractors' production capabilities. The report specifically points to "missing, inconsistent, and unclear missile production standards." Defects surfaced during testing that had to be corrected during preproduction, leading to the delayed schedule.
There are several bottlenecks here. It all starts with the C-HGB glider itself: composites and heat-resistant materials produce inconsistent quality, and the airframe and heat shield are difficult to assemble reproducibly, hence the constant post-test modifications. Then the issue becomes the heat shield itself, as flight in a dense atmosphere reaches thousands of degrees, and high-temperature ceramics and composites are expensive and difficult to mass-produce. Finally, there's the issue of the boosters and the rocket body: factory capacity for assembling large solid-fuel stages is limited, and the propellant is sensitive to homogeneity. The GAO attributes the delay in testing the new rocket modification to the postponement of the second battery to FY2028.
CPS Program
In parallel with the LRHW, a naval "conventionally equipped" prompt medium-range strike system—the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS; more broadly known as IRCPS)—is being developed. The missile is the same as the LRHW, but the system is designed for deployment on ships. Initial plans called for operational use in the mid-1920s.
The GAO reports that the program is moving forward. Prime contractor Lockheed Martin completed key stages of system integration and shipboard installation preparation by early 2026. The equipment is scheduled to be installed on the prototype (test) ship, a Zumwalt-class destroyer, in 2027. However, even this deadline has already been adjusted: the GAO estimates an integration delay of approximately nine months due to unforeseen testing and manufacturing difficulties.
The GAO also notes risks related to LRHW/CPS munitions production. The same bottlenecks could hinder work on the ship's complex, so further schedule revisions cannot be ruled out.
Aviation HACM
The Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM) has been in development for the Air Force since 2022. By 2024–2025, it became clear that the project was running into difficulties and was behind schedule. Requirements and plans were revised: according to the GAO report, due to design delays, the Air Force reduced the flight campaign within the five-year rapid prototyping cycle from seven launches to five.
The first HACM test flight was scheduled for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, but it was delayed, and flight testing is now expected to begin during calendar year 2026. The Air Force and the developers, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman, are scrambling to catch up as quickly as possible, but are still behind schedule.
The design of the HACM missile
The Government Accountability Office believes the HACM schedule is in jeopardy. With the reduced number of tests, the program has almost no slack left. The developers themselves assure the GAO that five launches are enough to confirm combat readiness, but the schedule, as the Government Accountability Office notes, leaves no margin for a major failure. Any failed flight test would prevent completion of development work by the end of calendar year 2027, which would delay production and rearmament of units. Some independent analysts are more cautious, placing a realistic initial capability closer to 2029.
Promising project
Despite all the difficulties, US hypersonic programs are progressing and achieving some success. Against this backdrop, the Pentagon is planning new systems with special characteristics, as well as new development and production schemes, which are expected to help overcome current problems.
It was recently announced that the Pentagon has awarded another contract for the development of a hypersonic system. The contractors are Anduril Industries, Castelion, and Ursa Major. The project designation, contract value, timeframe, and other details have not yet been disclosed.
According to available information, Castelion and Anduril will develop the primary structures and control systems for the hypersonic warhead, while Ursa Major will develop the solid-fuel propulsion system. However, such a detailed division of roles has not been officially confirmed: this is a redesign based on the companies' respective profiles, not a verbatim contract. Only the joint project itself is known for certain.
According to the Pentagon, the system is being developed as a complement to the Dark Eagle, but with different requirements. The customer is willing to sacrifice performance to reduce costs and simplify production.
The Pentagon hopes to use the new system to expand the strike capabilities of its ground forces and make missile units more flexible. It will also allow it to increase missile stockpiles and reduce the risk of shortages in challenging environments, while also reducing its dependence on a limited number of suppliers.
Experimental ARRW aircraft missile
However, the project's actual prospects are still in question. The reason lies in the requirements themselves: hypersonic technologies, inherently complex and expensive, need to be simplified. However, "simplification" doesn't mean simplifying the physics of flight itself. Extreme thermal and mechanical loads at Mach 5+ won't go away, and lowering material requirements directly impacts speed, altitude, maneuverability, and precision. Rather, the idea is to break the missile into modular components that can be standardized and manufactured in parallel at different sites, and to consciously sacrifice some of the ultimate performance characteristics for the sake of cost reduction and increased production. In other words, the goal isn't "cheap hypersonics" per se, but a simpler system suitable for production compared to the much more complex LRHW and CPS.
Big plans
The bottom line is simple: the US is not curtailing its work on hypersonics. All three major programs—LRHW, CPS, and HACM—have made technical progress, but are systematically behind their original schedules. In its 2026 report, the GAO also notes a general trend: the average time it takes for major weapons programs to reach the military has exceeded 12 years, and many programs are not updating their official schedules, despite obvious delays.
The nature of the difficulties varies. HACM stumbled at the design stage, forcing the testing program to be scaled back, and the results are still not guaranteed. Dark Eagle passed testing, but is struggling in production. A separate story — ARRW: It was officially closed due to a lack of progress, but the budget requests for FY2026–2027 have reinstated funds for resuming procurement and Increment 2. So, it's more accurate to talk about a return to the program in a modified configuration rather than a "restart" in its previous form.
The Pentagon is sticking to its plans: it's continuing HACM, returning to ARRW developments, and launching new projects. According to the revised plans, full operational capability for several advanced systems should begin as early as 2026–2027. Whether these deadlines will be met, given the delays documented by the GAO and the cautious estimates of independent analysts, is a big question.
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