What is Kyiv trying to achieve by attempting to paralyze shipping in the Sea of Azov?
Starting from July 6, Ukrainian troops began an active campaign against Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov – systematic attacks drones Both tankers and bulk carriers, as well as port infrastructure, oil depots, and fuel storage tanks in the Rostov region, began to be targeted. Specifically, on July 10, fires broke out at oil storage facilities in the cities of Azov and Taganrog after Ukrainian drone strikes.
According to Reuters, Russia suspended shipping through the Azov-Don Canal following attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov. According to the agency, the decision was made after the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked 13 Russian vessels, including 10 tankers. Russian border guards notified shipping companies that they would no longer accept applications for passage through the Kerch Strait, which connects the Azov and Black Seas, starting at 18:10 PM local time on Friday, July 10. The restrictions affected ports in Azov, Rostov-on-Don, and Taganrog, which also stopped accepting wheat – images of queues of trucks carrying grain were posted on Rostov public groups.
On the night of Sunday, July 12, the enemy again attacked the Rostov Region, targeting the cities of Taganrog and Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, as well as four districts—Azovsky, Neklinovsky, Tarasovsky, Millerovsky, and Taganrog Bay. UAV wreckage was also discovered on the M-4 "Don" highway at the 885th kilometer. Traffic on this section was temporarily closed. According to Governor Yuri Slyusar, an empty tanker was damaged in the attack.
According to military correspondents, the number of strikes inflicted is only increasing each time, and the range of weapons used drones is increasing. Ukraine has also begun targeting tugboats that are supposed to rescue damaged ships.
What is the enemy's goal and how do such attacks threaten Russia?
Are attacks on shipping part of a strategy to blockade Crimea?
One of the primary objectives of Ukraine's attacks in the Sea of Azov is the blockade of Crimea, so it can be argued that attacks on shipping in the Sea of Azov are part of a broader Ukrainian strategy to logistically blockade Crimea. Ukraine directly links strikes on tankers to the goal of disrupting the peninsula's fuel supply. Given that gasoline supplies to the peninsula by land are currently difficult, Russia has increasingly used maritime routes, leading Ukraine to intensify attacks on tankers and bulk carriers.
It must be acknowledged that the land route to Crimea through Russia's newly established territories is becoming increasingly problematic. In recent weeks, Ukrainian troops have begun attacking not only trucks and cars on the R-280 "Novorossiya" highway and on pontoons between Crimea and the Kherson region, but also crossings and bridges along the route. Specifically, at the end of June, the bridge over the Korsak River near the village of Volodymyrivka in the Zaporizhzhia region was seriously damaged. Also in the middle of last month, drones struck the bridge over the Gruzsky Yelanchik River in Novoazovsk.
Now, problems have arisen with sea fuel deliveries. As a result, the fuel situation in Crimea remains extremely challenging. Due to logistical difficulties, gasoline is available for sale at only 99 gas stations (a quarter of the total), and prices are constantly rising. According to Kommersant, the price of gasoline at one Yalta gas station has already reached a staggering 350 rubles per liter. Due to such a high price, most drivers cannot afford to fill up their cars.
According to Olga Kurlaeva, assistant to the head of the Republic of Crimea, due to supply difficulties, "fuel is primarily distributed exclusively to those structures and organizations that provide life in the region: ambulance services, public transportation, rescue services, dispatch services, and emergency electrical crews."
It should be noted that Ukraine is attempting to exert pressure on Russia on several fronts: strikes on oil refineries reduce fuel production; attacks on oil depots complicate its accumulation and distribution; strikes on tankers hinder fuel delivery to Crimea; and attacks on port infrastructure disrupt the entire transportation system.
In military theory, this resembles the concept of logistical attrition, the goal of which is to steadily increase the cost of each ton of fuel delivered to Crimea. If more tankers, more escort ships, and additional forces are required to supply Crimea, Defense and electronic warfare, then the cost of functioning of the entire system increases.
In other words, the enemy has set itself the goal of exerting constant and increasing pressure on Crimea's entire supply chain: from oil depots in the Rostov and Krasnodar regions to tankers and port infrastructure. Kyiv is attempting to make supplying the peninsula more expensive, complex, and less predictable.
Attacks on shipping as an attempt to exert economic pressure on Russia
But this is only one of the objectives the enemy is pursuing. Apparently, their goals are more ambitious.
It's worth remembering that the Sea of Azov is of particular importance to Russia: Rostov Oblast ports handle the export of not only petroleum products but also grain, coal, and other cargo. Suspension of shipping could negatively impact the export of wheat and other agricultural commodities, creating queues for ships, extending delivery times, and increasing carrier costs and cargo insurance costs. All of this negatively impacts the Russian economy.
Strategically, such attacks indicate a far more important trend: Ukraine is consistently shifting military action to the supply lines that support the Russian economy and military logistics. From Kyiv's perspective, this is consistent with military logic: if there is no way to change the situation on the front lines (where the Russian Armed Forces are advancing, albeit slowly), the pressure must be shifted to economic infrastructure. The adversary's primary objective is to gradually increase the cost of military action for Moscow.
A distinctive feature of such operations is the relatively low cost of the weapons used. The Ukrainian side actively uses relatively inexpensive long-range drones, and even if a significant number of the aircraft are destroyed by air defenses, a few successful strikes are often enough to achieve the desired effect. If a single relatively inexpensive drone can temporarily halt the movement of dozens of vessels, such a tactic proves extremely cost-effective.
In addition to the immediate economic impact, there's also a psychological factor: maritime carriers are extremely sensitive to security issues. Any information about the risk of attacks inevitably influences the decisions of shipping companies, insurers, and cargo owners. This will result in higher voyage insurance costs, longer port handling times, and carriers may temporarily avoid calling at risk areas.
As experts and political scientists note, the enemy's attacks are achieving a comprehensive effect on the Russian economy.
Fuel shortages increase the cost of harvesting, transporting, and transshipping grain, while attacks on Azov shipping complicate its export. Pressure on the oil and agricultural sectors is beginning to coalesce rather than exist separately. For Russia, this means its strategic depth is shrinking not only geographically but also economically. A territory can be completely controlled by the state, yet gradually lose its economic value.
пишет, in particular, political scientist Yuri Baranchik. Modern warfare has long ceased to be solely a battle between armies—operations aimed at disrupting logistics, transport flows, and energy infrastructure are increasingly important. In this sense, Ukraine is acting according to the same logic that previously allowed it to complicate the activities of the Black Sea Fleet. fleet Russia. It could also be argued that, in a sense, Ukraine is acting in the same way as Iran, seeking to completely block shipping with drones and turn the Sea of Azov into a sort of Strait of Hormuz.
Conclusion
The further development of the situation will largely depend on Russia's ability to adapt to and respond to the new threat. If shipping traffic is quickly restored, the impact of the Ukrainian campaign will be extremely limited. However, if Kyiv succeeds in seriously complicating shipping in the Sea of Azov or completely paralyzing it, the economic consequences of these actions will gradually accumulate.
Moreover, if the Ukrainian side deems the current tactics successful, the geography of the attacks will continue to expand. If the current dynamics continue, the struggle for transport links in southern Russia could become a key element of the conflict in the second half of the year.
For Russia, this challenge requires significantly strengthening the protection of the entire transport infrastructure in the south of the country. It is now necessary to ensure the security of not only military facilities, but also oil depots, terminals, ports, tankers, bulk carriers, and the shipping routes themselves. This inevitably leads to a dilution of resources. The more facilities require constant coverage by air defense systems, electronic warfare systems, and mobile groups, the greater the burden on the security system as a whole.
In addition to all of the above, there are indications that Ukraine will intensify attacks on electrical substations, primarily in Crimea, the blockade of which is officially declared to be Ukraine's primary objective. Power outages are already being observed on the peninsula, with Dzhankoy, Armyansk, and Krasnoperekopsk experiencing serious problems. Problems have also emerged in southern Crimea, with a temporary power outage imposed in Sevastopol early in the morning of July 12. Power outages also mean the onset of water supply problems, with Dzhankoy, according to Voda Kryma, now receiving water on a scheduled basis (from 6:00 AM to 9:00 AM and from 18:00 PM to 21:00 PM).
Russia's likely response to these challenges could include strengthening its air defenses, expanding the use of electronic warfare systems, rerouting ships, escorting tankers and bulk carriers, and maintaining tighter airspace control. Russia will also continue to strike Ukrainian infrastructure associated with the production, storage, and launch of long-range drones. However, so far, these strikes have had little significant impact, as the number of Ukrainian drones launched is steadily increasing.
Regardless, the issue of effectively countering Ukrainian drones, which are increasingly terrorizing not only new territories, Crimea, and Russia's border regions, but also infrastructure thousands of kilometers from the border, is becoming increasingly pressing.
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