The influence of distance on the firing efficiency of Russian and Japanese armored ships, using the Battle of Shantung as an example

In a series of articles devoted to the armored cruiser Bayan, considering a hypothetical one-on-one engagement between this ship and a Japanese armored cruiser, I concluded that the best course of action for the Russian cruiser would be to close to a range of less than 20 cables, where Bayan could capitalize on its advantage in armor-piercing shells. Obviously, the closer the range, the greater the accuracy expected from its guns, equipped with mechanical sights. On the other hand, the Japanese were also expected to be more accurate.
So let's take another look at how changing the firing ranges affected accuracy. artillery fire of the parties using the example of the battle of the main forces of the Russian and Japanese fleets at Shantung on July 28, 1904
Hit statistics
As is well known, the battle took place in two phases. In the first phase, the combat distances were significantly greater than in the second: they were so great that for most of the time, 6-inch guns couldn't fire, and the battle was fought only with guns of 8-inch and longer lengths. This suggests that for most of the time, the distance was significantly greater than 50 cable lengths. Meanwhile, the second phase began at approximately 45 cable lengths, and the distance decreased to 24 cable lengths, and in some places even less: in the case of the Retvizan, to 17 cable lengths. Of course, a distance of 17-45 cable lengths is not the same as less than 20 cable lengths, but it is still possible to discern a trend.
Back in 2021, I provided my esteemed readers with data on the number of hits on Russian and Japanese ships in each phase. I based my calculations on V. Polomoshnov's "Battle of July 28, 1904 (Battle in the Yellow Sea (Battle of Cape Shantung))," which breaks down the number of hits on Russian ships before and after 16.30:16.30 p.m. as follows:

However, I was interested in the hits sustained by both sides during the battle between the main forces, so I excluded those sustained by our cruisers after 18:45, when they attempted a breakthrough. I also cross-checked V. Polomoshnov's information with the reports of the 1st Pacific Squadron's ship commanders and the memoirs of N. N. Kuteinikov, who was responsible for repairs to these ships after the battle of July 28, 1904. Unfortunately, in a number of cases the data did not match, and since eyewitness reports are more reliable, I made adjustments—both for the total number of hits and for the phases of the battle.

As for the distribution of Russian hits on Japanese ships by phase, I had no source with which I could compare the data of the respected V. Polomoshnov, and I took the information he presented without any adjustments.

According to V. Polomoshnov, in the second phase, as the distance closed, the Russian squadron's fire was suppressed. Although the number of hits on Japanese ships increased slightly—14-15 versus 12—the heavy artillery's performance worsened—7-8 hits versus 11 in the first phase. Yet, only the heavy guns mattered: only 10-12-inch shells had a chance of inflicting decisive damage on the Japanese ships.
However, back in 2019, the respected naval_manual published an excellent work, "While She Can Be Navigated at All. Damage to the Battleship Mikasa in the Battle of Cape Shantung," and I overlooked it. The strength of naval_manual's data is that he used primary sources, such as the diagram and description of the Mikasa's damage, attached to the report of the ship's commander, Captain 1st Rank Ijichi Hikojiro. Meanwhile, V. Polomoshnov relied on secondary sources, such as N. Ogasavara, "Life of Admiral Togo," and Julian S. Corbett, "Maritime Operations in the Russo-Japanese War 1904–1905," among others. Accordingly, the data presented by naval_manual should be considered more accurate. Adjusted for this, the table of hits on Japanese ships would look like this:

A few clarifications to the table. In the second phase, Mikasa was reliably hit (as far as can be counted, of course) by nine 10-12-inch shells, but there were two more hits that are questionable. The Japanese believe that the explosion in Mikasa's aft turret was caused by a large-caliber Russian shell hitting the barrel, distorting it, and triggering an accidental discharge due to the shock—the shell then exploded in the warped barrel. This may have been the case, but it may not have been, and the shell may have detonated on its own, without any impact from Russian artillery.
Next. Mikasa was hit by two shells of indeterminate caliber, both in the second phase. But one of them, estimated to be between 6 and 12 inches in caliber, was most likely, judging by the damage descriptions, a 10-inch "gift." If so, it should have been counted under "10-12 inches." Therefore, I listed 1-2 shells under "n/a," and 9-11 under "10-12 inches."
Furthermore, naval_manual expressed reasonable doubts about the existence of a 75mm shell hit. The ship's commander's report mentions it, but the medical report does not. Moreover, the losses caused by it are attributed to another hit, which caused the explosion of Japanese 76mm shells. Therefore, I have labeled it as hit 0-1.
So, the adjustments have been made, and the difference doesn't seem particularly significant. However, the statistics now lead to completely different conclusions than those drawn from V. Polomoshnov's data.
On the efficiency and accuracy of shooting
By firing accuracy, I'll mean hit percentage—that is, the ratio of hits on the enemy to the shells fired at them. And I'll measure effectiveness by the ability to achieve the highest number of hits, regardless of firing accuracy. So, if a ship demonstrated 5% accuracy and scored 3 hits in the first phase of combat, and 4% and scored 10 hits in the second phase (due to the use of more shells), then I'll say it was more accurate in the first phase and more effective in the second.
On the difficulties of analyzing the shooting accuracy of Russian and Japanese artillerymen at Shantung
There's nothing easier than determining firing accuracy when the number of shells expended and the number of hits on the enemy are known. But, unfortunately, we don't know, and will never know, the number of shells expended by each side in the first and second phases of the battle separately for each phase; this data is only available for individual ships. Perhaps, of course, in the "Top Secret" stories"Data on Japanese ships will be found someday, but there is absolutely nowhere to get it from on Russian ones.
At the same time, statistics on Japanese hits on Russian ships contain an excessively high proportion of shells whose caliber was not determined. These account for 65 out of 141 hits, or 46%, which, of course, makes it extremely difficult to assess the accuracy of Japanese guns of the same caliber. Russian hits are better "diagnosed"—the percentage of hits by shells whose caliber is difficult to determine is 17-22%.
I personally tend to believe that the overwhelming majority of "unknown caliber" shells were 6-8-inch shells, since a 10-12-inch shell would have been very "heavy" and would have caused extensive damage. Of course, such damage wasn't always significant, but it was still relatively easily recognizable. Furthermore, Russian shells produced relatively few large fragments, making them easier to identify.
In any case, it's important to remember that determining the caliber of shells that hit a ship is a very difficult task, and errors are always possible, even in cases where the shell's caliber seems to be clearly stated. Japanese sources are more complete, but they also contain inconsistencies even in the number of hits, which are easier to count than to determine the caliber of the shell that hit. And in our own country, caliber was often determined very roughly. While statistical data is certainly necessary—we have nothing else—it's still not advisable to regard it as the ultimate authority.
On the efficiency and accuracy of firing artillery with a caliber of 6-8 inch
The statistics above show that the number of hits by Japanese medium-caliber shells (6-8 inches) increased significantly in the 2nd phase. If we assume that the "8-inch and above" category actually refers to 8-inch shells and that all shells in the "n/a" category were 6-8 inches, which is likely very close to the truth, then the Japanese scored 17 hits with 6-8 inches in the 1st phase, and 70 such hits in the 2nd phase. A more than fourfold increase.
But, as I mentioned above, it's completely unclear how many medium-caliber shells the Japanese expended in the first phase and how many in the second. Yes, the two phases are quite comparable in time—the first lasted no more than 2 hours 35 minutes, the second 2 hours 15 minutes. It's also possible that there was a moment in the middle of the first phase when both sides stopped firing due to distance (after they had diverged on a countercourse). It's safe to assume that the Japanese 8-12-inch guns fired for comparable, if not identical, periods in both the first and second phases, but the same can't be said for their 6-inch guns.
Why? The fact is that the first phase was fought at much greater ranges than the second, meaning the 6-inch artillery was unable to engage for a significant portion of the battle. This is evidenced by the expenditure of 6-inch shells by three ships for which statistics for the battle phases are available.
The Japanese battleship Asahi fired only 57 6-inch shells in the first phase of the battle on July 28, 1904.

Considering that the total expenditure of 6-inch shells by the 7 Japanese armored ships that participated in the battle with the main forces of the Russian squadron (including the Yakumo) was 3592 shells, that is, an average of 513 shells per ship, it can be assumed that the Asahi spent no more than 11% of the shells of this caliber it fired in the first phase.
The Russian battleships also demonstrated a very low expenditure of 6-inch shells in the first phase; the Retvizan fired 82 (28%) of the 292 shells of this caliber it fired in the first phase, while the Sevastopol used 30 of 286 (10,5%). Here, the attentive reader will notice that my figures for total expenditure do not match those given by, for example, V. Polomoshnov, but this should not be surprising. I have excluded from the total expenditure of 6-inch shells by the Sevastopol and Retvizan segmented shells, which were obviously fired to repel destroyer attacks, but not at Japanese battleships.
It should also be noted that the distribution of shell consumption for Retvizan's 6-inch guns by phase cannot be directly applied to the Japanese battleships. This is because her 6-inch guns failed due to mechanical failures in both the first and second phases. In the first phase, two guns failed: one fired 8 shots, the other 21, but both were restored to service within an hour. In the second phase, three guns failed: after 8, 15, and 36 rounds, respectively. Accordingly, it can be said that two of the Retvizan's guns were out of action by the end of the first phase - the battleship had five 6-inch guns per side, and it is obvious that some of them either did not fire at all or fired only a few shots in the first phase - otherwise, it is impossible to explain the expenditure of 21 shells per gun with a total expenditure of 82 shells.
But by the beginning of the 2nd phase, all 5 guns were in action, and 210 shells had been fired - that is, the guns that broke on the 8th and 15th shot obviously failed at the beginning of the battle, which is why for most of it only 3 6-inch guns fired, and towards the end - only 2 at all.
Simply put, due to damage to the Retvizan's guns, many shells were unfired in the second phase. Had they been operational, the battleship would have expended far more 6-inch shells. And then the proportion of such shells expended in the first phase would have been lower than the actual 28%.
What conclusions can be drawn from the above? It can be assumed that in the first phase, both Russian and Japanese ships expended approximately 15% of their total 6-inch shells.
But in this case, the accuracy of the Japanese firing from 6-8-inch guns in phases turned out to be extremely interesting.
In total, Nisshin and Kasuga expended 307 8-inch shells in the Battle of the Yellow Sea. Let's assume that shell consumption was close to 50%—153 shells in the first phase and 154 in the second. Then the total consumption of 6-inch 8-inch shells in the first phase was 153 + 539 (15% of the total consumption of 6-inch shells) = 692 shells, and in the second phase—154 + 2874 = 3028 shells.
But then, taking into account that in the 1st phase a maximum of 17 hits were achieved, and in the 2nd - 70, it turns out that the accuracy of the Japanese firing from 6-8-inch caliber guns with a reduction in distance decreased and amounted to 2,46% in the 1st phase and only 2,18% in the 2nd phase.
But there's a slight twist here, too. The thing is, in Phase 2, when calculating accuracy, I used the shell consumption of H. Togo's 1st Battle Squadron. But they were joined by Yakumo, whose shell consumption I have no data on, so I didn't include them in the calculations. But in Phase 2, the 1st Battle Squadron averaged 505 medium-caliber shells per ship, and assuming Yakumo expended the same amount, that means the Japanese's 6-8-inch guns had an accuracy of only 1,98%!
So, did Japanese accuracy decline as the distance closed? Not quite, but here's the thing. The accuracy of 8-inch guns is usually higher than that of 6-inch guns. However, in Phase 1, the Japanese 6-inch guns fired little. Accordingly, we can say that in Phase 1, the accuracy of their fire was closer to that of the Japanese 8-inch guns, and in Phase 2, it was closer to that of their 6-inch guns. In other words, the accuracy of the 8-inch and 6-inch guns in Phase 2 remained roughly the same as in Phase 1, perhaps even increasing slightly. But due to the fact that the share of “more accurate” 8-inch shells in the 1st phase of the total number of fired 6-8-inch caliber shells was 17,6%, and in the 2nd phase – only 5%, it was precisely this reduction that reduced the overall accuracy of the 6-8-inch guns.
However, even taking into account all these considerations, one thing is absolutely clear - Oddly enough, the Japanese did not experience any noticeable increase in the accuracy of their 6-8 inch guns as the distances decreased.
As for the Russian squadron's battleships, things were much simpler, as they lacked 8-inch guns. The firing accuracy of 6-inch shells was approximately (assuming 15% of all 6-inch shells were expended in the first phase):
In the 1st phase - 0%, 347 shells expended, 0 hits achieved.
In the 2nd phase - 0,56%, 1967 shells were expended, 11 hits were achieved.
Of course, the accuracy of Russian 6-inch guns is much lower than that of Japanese 6-inch guns. However, it's still impossible to directly compare the 0,56% of Russian fire in the second phase with the 1,98% of Japanese fire. Firstly, the Japanese accuracy was "increased" by the use of more accurate 8-inch guns. Secondly, the calculated hit percentage for the Russians should be considered minimal, since some of the 1967 6-inch shells they fired were fired at cruisers after the main force had engaged, and probably at destroyers as well.
Taking this into account, the accuracy of Japanese 6-inch guns should be defined as less than 1,98%, and Russian ones - more than 0,56%, but by how much is absolutely impossible to say.
On the efficiency and accuracy of firing artillery with a caliber of 10-12 dm
Here, the Japanese also saw a significant increase in hits, though not as high as with 6-8-inch artillery. While they scored 20 hits on Russian ships with 10-12-inch shells in the first phase, they scored 33 in the second phase, a 1,65-fold increase. This ratio may be slightly worse if one or both hits classified as "8-inch or higher" were 10-12-inch shells, but even then, the hit rate increased by at least 1,5 times.
Let's now look at shell consumption. In total, the Japanese fleet fired 603 12-inch shells during the Battle of Shantung, or an average of 151 shells per battleship. Meanwhile, the Asahi fired 64 such shells during the first phase, or 42,4% of the average 12-inch shell consumption per battleship. But can this ratio be considered typical for other Japanese battleships?
This is unknown, and unfortunately, the statistics of Russian ships are unhelpful and don't show any trend. For example, the Retvizan expended 78 12-inch shells during the battle, 42 of which were fired in the first phase and, accordingly, 36 afterward.
But the fact is, Retvizan's statistics are completely unrepresentative. She entered the battle with only three operational 12-inch guns out of four, as the left gun in the forward turret was out of order—they were still installing the loading drum, which had failed during a reverse firing test on July 15. The gun was brought back into service during the battle, and by the beginning of the second phase it was operational, but exactly when is unclear to me.
However, it remained inactive for at least part of Phase 1, and according to naval_manual, the gun was unable to fire for the entire first phase. Moreover, at the very beginning of Phase 2 ("around 5:00 PM"), the Retvizan's bow turret sustained damage, rendering it inoperable. By the end of the battle, it was repaired, but it remained jammed, making horizontal aiming impossible. Ultimately, after sustaining damage, the turret fired only three shots, whenever the enemy happened to be in its line of fire.
It turns out that for part of the 1st phase (or the entire 1st phase), the Retvizan fired from 3 twelve-inch guns, and for most of the 2nd phase - from only 2 guns, and therefore its shell consumption by phase of the battle cannot be considered typical for the Russian squadron.
It's worth noting, however, that the number of serviceable 12-inch Retvizan guns in the 2nd phase decreased by approximately a third, while the number of shells expended decreased by roughly 15%. This indirectly confirms the Asahi statistics, which indicate that the Japanese expended more 10-12-inch shells in the 2nd phase than in the 1st.
The Sevastopol's statistics are even more remarkable. The ship fired a total of 78 12-inch shells in the battle, and according to naval_manual, only 7 such shells were expended in the first phase of the battle.
We can only speculate about the reasons for such a low expenditure of ammunition, but the following should be taken into account. First, the Sevastopol was at the tail of the Russian column and, before they diverged on counter-courses, was extremely far from the Japanese ships. At the beginning of the battle, the Japanese were beyond the range of its 12-inch guns; later, the direction of the Japanese was such that only the forward turret, which was missing one gun, could fire. It can also be assumed that the battleship's commander, von Essen, was wary of firing at extreme range, lest he damage the guns, as had happened earlier during the cross-fire.

Removing the damaged 12-inch gun from the Sevastopol
However, despite all of the above, the veracity of the data on the expenditure of seven 12-inch shells in the first phase is highly questionable. If this data is accurate, it would mean that the Sevastopol fired 71 12-inch shells in the second phase. The problem is that our battleships, which had no damage to their main guns and turrets, fired significantly fewer main gun shells during the battle than the Japanese. For example, the Tsarevich fired 104 12-inch shells, and the Pobeda fired 115 10-inch shells.
While the Tsesarevich's statistics aren't particularly revealing, as her crew was the least trained and she was disabled at the end of the second phase and likely unable to fire, the same can't be said for the Pobeda. The battleship suffered the least damage and remained in action until the end of the battle. But even her 115 shells are far inferior to the "average" output of Japanese battleships—and how can one believe that the Sevastopol outperformed them in the second phase? And yet, that would have been true, since the expenditure of 71 shells per 3 guns suggests that had the Sevastopol had all four 12-inch guns operational, she would have expended 94–95 12-inch shells in the second phase, while the Japanese battleships averaged 151 such shells in both phases!
Overall, the data on the Sevastopol's expenditure of seven 12-inch shells in the first phase appears dubious, and the data on the Retvizan's shell consumption, while not in doubt, cannot be extrapolated to the remaining ships of the squadron. Consequently, there is no data to construct any credible hypotheses regarding the expenditure of Russian 10-12-inch shells during the phases of the Battle of the Yellow Sea. At the same time, the data on the Asahi's shell consumption is insufficient to confidently assume similar large-caliber shell consumption for the Japanese fleet.
Therefore, it is completely impossible to estimate the change in the accuracy of Russian and Japanese guns with a caliber of 10-12 inch with decreasing distance.
However, there is one very important fact that can hardly be disputed. The effectiveness of large-caliber gunfire from the Russian and Japanese squadrons remained at the same level in the first and second phases. In the first phase, our gunners achieved one hit for every three Japanese (20 versus 7), and in the second phase, this ratio remained the same (33 versus 11).
Conclusions
From the obvious:
1. Of course, the Russian squadron lost the artillery competition - the Japanese scored many more hits on the Russian ships.
2. The reduction in distances in the 2nd phase predictably led to a multiple increase in the number of hits – both on Russian and Japanese ships.
3. The rate of increase in the number of hits by Russian artillery was slightly higher than that of the Japanese. In the 2nd phase, Russian ships were hit by 2,81 times more shells than in the 1st phase, while Japanese ships were hit by 3,21 times more shells. However, this is a low-base effect, as in the 1st phase, the Russian 6-inch guns failed to hit the enemy at all, while in the 2nd phase, they still managed to score some hits.
4. As the distance decreased, the effectiveness of Russian and Japanese guns of 10-12-inch caliber remained virtually unchanged - in both phases, for every 3 Japanese hits with shells of these calibers, there was one Russian hit.
Less obvious:
1. Despite a significant increase in hits on Russian ships in the second phase, the Japanese were unable to suppress Russian artillery. Yes, our gunners generally shot poorly, but their effectiveness increased at roughly the same rate as that of the Japanese as the distance decreased.
2. The Japanese did not demonstrate a sharp increase in the accuracy of fire with decreasing distance, while:
2.1 The increase in the number of hits by 6-inch caliber shells is explained primarily by the increase in the number of 6-inch shells expended in the 2nd phase, compared to the 1st;
2.2 The increase in hits with 10-12-inch shells could also, to some extent, be due to the increased number of shells expended. Simply put, while Japanese battleships fired an average of 64 12-inch shells per ship during the first phase (like the Asahi), they fired 256 shells in the first phase, and 347 in the second. In this case, firing accuracy increased from 7,81% in the first phase to 9,51% in the second phase, or a mere 1,21-fold increase.
5. Unfortunately, it is completely impossible to assess the increase in the accuracy and effectiveness of firing from 8-inch guns based on the available data.
In view of the above, there is no reason to believe that in a hypothetical battle between the Izumo or Nissin and the Bayan, one on one, the Japanese cruiser would have been able to suppress the artillery of the Russian ship during an approach to a distance of less than 20 cables.
P.S. Of course, the above conclusions could be challenged by the results of the Battle of Tsushima. But such a comparison would be invalid. Japanese gunners arrived at Tsushima with a wealth of experience under their belts—H. Togo's 1st Battle Squadron had fought the Port Arthur Squadron at Shantung, and H. Kamimura's 2nd Battle Squadron had fought the VOK cruisers in the Korea Strait. Then, after repairs, combat training resumed, and undoubtedly, Japanese ships in 1905 were able to fire significantly more accurately than in 1904. At the same time, when discussing the results of a hypothetical engagement between the Bayan and a single Japanese cruiser, I am considering the period of the first half of 1904, when the training of Japanese gunners was significantly lower than at the time of the Battle of Tsushima.
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