Of the internal, decisive are the territorial split of the country into Russian and Galician Ukraine, the inability and unwillingness of elites to solve the socio-economic problems of society, the split of elites into two roughly equal in strength clan and the loss of legitimacy by the ruling and opposition elites in the eyes of the population ..
From foreign policy - the worsening world economic crisis, easing the pressure of the European Union and the United States on Ukraine and the reluctance to deal with the power of the regionals, the strengthening of Russia's role in the international arena and the desire to return the post-Soviet countries to the orbit of their influence.
All this together, as well as the lack of understanding by the Ukrainian elites of the essence of what is happening, turn Ukraine into an object to satisfy other people's national interests, in which the future of the state and its integrity will be decided beyond the Ukrainian borders.
The crisis of society and the delegitimization of elites
Since the Orange Revolt, Ukrainian society has remained extremely unstable, since not one of the Ukrainian problems - territorial, social and political - finds its solution. The main thing is the territorial instability of the state, accidentally combining lands completely different in population, history, faith and language, which led to the ongoing confrontation of Bandera Galicia and the pro-Russian Southeast (New Russia), which is striving under the Euro-Atlantic umbrella.
The confrontation could be nullified by allowing each region to live its own life, but the unbridled desire of the Ukrainian elites to impose the Galician-Bandera worldview on Novorossia leaves no chance for maintaining unity.
In social terms, the blatant stratification of society and the desire of elites to solve economic problems at the expense of the majority of the population is aggravated by the growing discontent of big business, offended by the “family” of the president. The aggravating intraspecific struggle of the Ukrainian oligarchy may be no less destructive than the interclass struggle for its rights.
The political confrontation of the regionals defending the interests of their clans and the post-orange opposition has reached a stalemate in which neither of the parties can achieve their goals. The killing on both the West and the unwillingness to consider integration into the Eurasian space is also killing. The decision is simply absurd due to the fact that due to economic problems, the European Union is not up to Ukraine. Moreover, the EU, burdened with its own problems, does not want to see it in its ranks, while Russia, on the contrary, is beginning to restore its power. All this has led to the fact that neither the authorities nor the opposition are willing to seriously talk to either of them or others, and are waiting for everyone to wait for the disassembly of the Ukrainian elites to end.
The situation is particularly unattractive for Yanukovych and his entourage, who cannot understand in any way that in Moscow and Brussels he was written off as an international player and put into circulation. Yanukovych needs to think more not about the second term, but about the prospects of his not quite bright future.
The problems of Ukraine are aggravated by the fact that all Ukrainian elites continue to rapidly lose their authority and support of citizens. Taking into account that the legitimacy of any government is determined by the recognition by society of the right of elites to govern the state and act as an unconditional and uncontested carrier of the benefits needed by society, many people have a question - what are the benefits of today's elites and why they should be at the helm of the state.
The answer is more than transparent - no elite is carried. Having come to power under the slogan "the Muscovites ate our fat" and, having received a rich inheritance, they used the power only to preserve and increase their capital. On this occasion, one of the bloggers very aptly put it: “... the goons have come to power and are trying to unite everyone around the zhlobskaya idea of filling their own bean” More precisely you will not tell.
The two clans who tried to cut each other by their actions completely discredited themselves, they had long since exhausted public credibility and lost their foothold in society. In the absence of more worthy ones, they are still voted for and supported, but almost all sectors of society want only one thing so that they leave the political scene as quickly as possible. By the way, this also partly explains the success of the radical national ists of Freedom.
The ruling clan of the regionals, being an alien and hostile force in the west and in the center of the country, managed to discredit itself in the eyes of the population of New Russia, having lost the support of that part of the population that brought them to power. Disappointment and rejection of the Party of Regions in society has already turned into hatred of it, and the moment when the electorate supporting the regionals refuses their support has already come. Just do not bet on anyone.
The POSTOREGNYES cannot take power from the regionals, since they have lost their legitimacy even earlier because of their worthlessness and the lack of alternative ideas for the development of society. They turned out to be so insignificant that not only ideas, even worthy leaders from their midst could not be put forward and now frank fascists rule the ball among them.
The inept and ill-considered actions of the power and opposition elites are destructive not only for society, but also for themselves, putting them on the verge of self-destruction. To discredit each other, they did as much as any other political force opposing them could do.
In such a situation, the political system becomes unstable and at any time irreversible processes of disintegration of the system and the state can begin, which can be provoked by an internal or external cause, which is not very dependent on the actions of the elites, and the power can be turned to completely unexpected forces that have found support in society.
Disintegration or preservation of statehood
In terms of political passions and socio-economic problems, Ukraine has already potentially matured to break the existing political system and is very close to the point where, in the words of the classic, “the lower classes cannot, but the tops do not want” to live as before. This does not happen only because the state's economy is somehow kept afloat, the opposing clans cannot defeat each other and are preparing forces for the fight for the presidency, and the main foreign policy players have not yet intervened and are waiting for how this will end.
But this is seeming calm. Social explosion can occur very quickly, for this purpose it is enough only an occasion which will start the mechanism of general disintegration. In this sense, the example of Romania is vivid, when in 1989 a rally organized in support of Ceausescu turned into a popular uprising, in just five days he was overthrown, put on trial by a military tribunal and executed. All of this suggests that in the event of popular anger, events develop rapidly and leave no chance to the hated regime.
In Ukrainian realities, both internal and external reasons can be grounds for paralysis of the central government bodies. Of the internal ones, an economic collapse can be called, with devaluation of the hryvnia, delayed and unpaid wages and pensions, turning into street pressure and a general spontaneous riot, provocations and a riot of the right-wing radicals, a coup through the dissolution of parliament organized by offended oligarchs.
The external reason may be an aggravation of the global economic crisis, entailing the collapse of the Ukrainian economy, the refusal of the West to provide loans and / or “hitting” of regional power under the far-fetched pretext of protecting democracy, Russia's economic blockade when Yanukovych makes a final decision to go under the West. The latter is almost inevitable when Ukraine signs an association agreement, part of which is an agreement on a free trade zone. They open the border of Ukraine for any European goods (or Chinese, coming from Europe). Not only is it fatal for Ukrainian producers, but Russia and Belarus and Kazakhstan will close their customs borders, protecting their market and their producers.
With the escalating contradictions in Ukraine, in the event of a collapse of state power, the question of preserving the integrity of the state will inevitably arise, since the two irreconcilable ideological views on their past and future formed in Galicia and Novorossia will require their resolution. The society on this issue has split roughly in half, while the interests of the first began to express the post-orange, and the second (due to a misunderstanding) regionals.
In this regard, it is of interest who will pursue what goals in such a development of events. For obvious reasons, all Ukrainian elites strive to preserve integrity, since in this case there is more territory and population, greater opportunities for their robbery and more authority at the international level. Unable to cope with the ideological confrontation of the regions, they found a patron in the face of the West and, in gratitude, contribute to his aspirations to create an anti-Russian bridgehead from Ukraine and, at the same time, a raw material appendage of Europe with a junk market.
The attitude of the population of different regions to territorial integrity is different, depending on what they receive from the state and what they give to it. Galicia, obsessed with the maniacal idea, to make everyone happy with the banderization of consciousness and not able to secure a decent existence for itself, is ready not only to lay with the bones beyond the existing borders, but not averse to extending them almost to the Caucasus.
Hetman, as usual, is economically ready to take everything into its own hands, believing that if the capital is on its territory, then all regions should pray to her and give thanks for the fact that with a lordly hand from the central government something falls to them.
Only Novorossia, which is capable of supporting itself and feeding others, is forced to enforce the demands of the central authorities in orderly rows to join the “Ukrainian nation”, to forget their Russian roots and native language. Of course, the territorial integrity of the population of this region is an eyesore and it would breathe a sigh of relief, getting rid of annoying Ukrainizers.
The USA with the European Union and Russia, proceeding from their geopolitical interests, is also far from indifferent to the future of Ukraine. For Russia, this should be, if not friendly, then a neutral state would be, taking as far as possible the borders of a geopolitical competitor in the person of NATO. For the latter, Ukraine is needed as a tool for weakening Russia's position in the foreign-policy balance of power and a constant irritant for the Russian leadership. That is, the collapse of Ukraine is not profitable for the main foreign-policy players and they are not taking and will not take steps aimed at dismembering this artificial education. At the same time, each of the parties will strive to bring political forces friendly to it to power.
All this suggests that the preservation of the integrity of the state is most preferable within Ukraine and abroad, but its territorial instability provokes the disintegration of the state. Which, under certain conditions, can become not only probable, but also inevitable. With all the consequences.
The trigger for the start of the disintegration mechanism will be the paralysis of the public authorities, for whatever reason. And then the two warring clans will meet in a mortal fight for the right to be at the helm. Each clan has its own electoral field, tied to certain territories, and in each territory there is a strong rejection of “alien” elites.
Since none of the opposing sides will be able to win a convincing victory over the enemy and impose their will on the whole society, in the event of a collapse of power, they will each have to leave to “their” territory and mobilize the electorate to confront with “hostile” force. All this will lead to the almost inevitable territorial confrontation and the split of the country.
In this situation, it is no longer the Ukrainian elites, but the main foreign policy players will decide what to do with Ukraine. And it will not happen in Kiev. And not in favor of the Ukrainian society. They will decide in Moscow, Brussels and Washington taking into account their geopolitical interests. A good example is the partition of Yugoslavia.
Options may be different. Separating only the Ukraine, for example, in the geopolitical sense, does little for Russia, since practically on the same borders a Russophobic state will be formed from Hetman and Galicia and integrated into Euro-Atlantic structures. Therefore, Russia cannot leave the Hetmanate at the mercy of its opponents and will fight for it, while Galicia does not represent a serious geopolitical interest for it with the adjacent territories.
For the West, there are additional problems with the section. What to do with the fragments that do not fit into the sphere of Russian influence and who will have to take on their content, which the United States had to do with Georgia in its time? It is impossible for him to keep Novorossia under control with the Russian population of mentality and it will have to be given away. As a prize, the West will receive Galicia, who dreams of a “European paradise”, and the Hetmanate, as usual, will seek to choose where it would be more beneficial to join.
So with the general collapse of the main struggle will unfold for Hetman. This is where the main battlefields will be. What is formed on the territory of "Ukraine" is now difficult to say. Most likely there are three entities - Novorossia with gradual integration into the Russian state, Ukraine itself in its historical borders under the light or tough protectorate of Russia and Galicia as a provincial European periphery and an eternal candidate for the European Union.
Decay driving forces
With the beginning of the process of decay, the forces of the clans will be far from equal. A clear advantage in post-orange. They are unconditionally supported in large quantities by Galicia and to a large extent the central regions. Regionals will have no one to rely on.
Because of the betrayal of the interests of the population of Novorossia, the regionals here the overwhelming majority of the population simply despises and will not stand up to defend them. They do not enjoy any serious authority anywhere, and the power of the Party of Regions is seriously shaken. They will try to organize in their support the remaining "sympathizers", diluting them with criminal and semi-criminal elements, but this will already be a pathetic parody of nationwide support.
The most organized today are post-orange forces that are doing everything possible to rock the boat of state stability and who are trying to show that they have the necessary forces and means to overthrow the regionals. In fact, their actions are more like well-directed clownery, and this is clearly seen in the “Get Up Ukraine!” Campaign they are conducting. They cannot afford to gather a large number of supporters in one city for their actions, and they have to organize and deliver extras from other regions and create the appearance of mass protest.
I had to watch their action in Kharkov and see it from the inside. The city authorities surrounded this place with trams, leaving a narrow passage and it was easy to count them. Participants turned out to be about four thousand, although they publicly announced ten. The overwhelming majority of them did not represent Kharkiv citizens and were brought from other places. Under the banner of the “Blow”, some teenagers stood en masse, and only at the end of the column I found a man of two hundred Kharkiv citizens. Around this gathering stood five - seven hundred curious, who came to watch the show. Having shouted prepared slogans for about an hour and having listened to their leaders, the professional post-orange dispersed, not evoking any emotions in the 1.5 million city.
Outwardly - a serious action, but essentially a dummy. These marginals do not enjoy mass support of the population, the maximum they can do is to shout and organize a provocation, and it’s obviously too hard for them to raise and lead the masses.
Unfortunately, there is no real “third force” capable of withstanding the current elites and ready to intercept their power. But this does not mean that it can not appear. In society, the understanding is already beginning to ripen, that it is necessary not to shuffle in the power structures of the regionals with post-orange, who have the same goals, but to fundamentally break the existing political system of government and the established social hierarchy.
The practice of such social and political transformations shows that they are far from being carried out by the people, but by a passionate minority capable of capturing the minds of the passive majority, raising it and leading the way. In order to break the political system, the current elite must be replaced by a new one that can offer and implement a different path of social and state development.
The replacement of elites takes place in different ways, from evolutionary, mainly through elections, to revolutionary through all sorts of riots and coups. It is almost impossible to replace the Ukrainian elite with the help of elections, since it has worked out effective mechanisms for clearing the political field from potential competitors and puts everyone in front of a fact - choose only from us, slipping to the society for each election the same greasy and modified stack of political parties that do not express not in the least public interest. Elections are relatively fair, but there is no one to choose from.
Our people, to my deep regret, no matter how much I want to talk about it, turned out to be so stupid that it voted for them and conducted for primitive advertising, pitiful handouts and empty promises.
The passive majority is able to rise on its own, but, as a rule, this results in a social rebellion that will remain “meaningless and merciless” until it is led by a force capable of redirecting social protest in the right direction and at the crucial moment to put pressure on the ruling elite with the purpose of removing her from the levers of power. So, at the head of the popular uprising, leaders inevitably appear and the only question is who will they represent and where will they be sent to.
According to the classical scheme, parties and leaders should stand at the head of any movement. But if among the elites there are no authorities and ideas capable of defending the interests of society at a critical moment, it itself puts forward ideas and leaders and brings them to power.
In confirmation, we can recall the events after the February revolution of 1917, when the government began to flow from the losing legitimacy of the Provisional Government to the Soviets, which eventually became power. Similarly, the Polish independent trade union Solidarity, which at the beginning of 80's on the basis of economic demands succeeded in shaking the regime so that even the imposition of martial law in the country did not help it retain power. The driving force behind the velvet revolutions in Eastern Europe at the end of the 80s was also the mass protest movement of the people, which left no hope for the ruling regimes.
In all these cases, the protest movements were headed not by specific parties, but by spontaneously arisen or previously prepared socio-political movements that managed to unite the broad masses of the people and direct them to overthrow the authorities that had lost their legitimacy.
I would especially like to highlight a vivid example of national unity during the 1612 riot, when the elite of that time betrayed the interests of Russia and its statehood was on the verge of extinction. And who saved the day? The people's militia, raised not by the princes and boyars in Moscow, but by the Nizhny Novgorod district warden Minin, who inspired the people, organized a collection of money for the militia and invited Prince Pozharsky to lead it. The people believed him, defended the Russian land, threw the Poles and rogues out of its borders, and in the general veche determined their future.
All of this to the fact that the passive majority very easily surges and to unite it into an organized mass movement, able to remove the existing elites from the levers of power and decide the fate of the state, a catalyst for civic activism is needed, as well as a simple and understandable idea that inspires everyone to fight. The Bolsheviks went to the masses not with “Capital”, but with three simple slogans — peace to the peoples, factories for the workers, land for the peasants (they simply stole the latter from the Socialist-Revolutionaries) and reared Russia.
Such a catalyst could be a real possibility of the coming of the Galician-Bandera power, which in a critical situation would be a signal for the immediate mobilization of the population of New Russia against the impending plague. What actually happened in 2004 year. Then, in response to the “orange” revolt and the refusal of Galicia to obey the central government, the popular wave in Novorossia, which put the state on the verge of collapse, cynically extinguished and taken under control by the Regions, rose. With today's alignment of forces and a tough confrontation of the regions, the situation can be repeated on a larger scale.
An attempt by all elites without exception to bet only on the West has not led to anything worthwhile, and now the time is coming when it is necessary to place other bets and offer other ideas. As such an idea, there can be a concept of integration of the Russian civilization space, which allows for the most severe global competition to acquire a large (the largest in the world) space with a large market and corresponding resources, which is a condition for survival in the modern world. The political force that put forward such a concept should clearly convey to the citizens a simple idea that this is a real chance to achieve better standards of life, which many dream of receiving as manna from heaven, buying into the myths of "European integration."
When setting as a goal a change in the socio-political system in the country, one must be aware that with simple convictions, a deep-rooted ideology and the power to defend it cannot be changed. This is an ideological war, and in such wars, victories without sacrifices are extremely rare. Both staunch supporters and random people go to the slaughter.
Any idea is implemented by specific people and the success of its implementation will depend on what they represent. These people should be ready, including, to forceful confrontation and possible bloodshed, since their opponents will be Galician neo-Nazis, who are ready to shed their own and other people's blood without hesitation.
Only those self-righteous people, who are also capable of pouring their blood without fear, can stand against them and win. It is well known that the humility of the victim gives rise to the rage of the executioner, so the anti-Nazi force must clearly and unambiguously give a message to its opponents that it will not stop even before such an extreme measure. The very fact of the threat of sobering many, and the most frostbitten only the threat of the use of force and can stop.
There are, of course, such people among the Novorossovs, but they are not organized and out of habit wait for the critical moment when it will be impossible to endure. In everyday life, it is rather difficult to raise them for serious accomplishments, but in a critical situation, their cowardly Svoboda will become their stimulator, in their folly calling on their supporters to "go beyond the Dnieper and put everyone on the knives." They have little idea what a furious blow will follow in response and the unity of the state can then be forgotten forever.
The political tension of passion so far results in the mutual destruction of monuments in the west and east of the country. But in these regions they are implicitly ready for more decisive actions. Galicia hopes that they will put Novorossov on their knees with their pressure. But this is an erroneous assumption. Southern Russian society has a demand for its radical power, and this power will inevitably manifest itself.
The process is likely to be spontaneous, when the masses from their midst will nominate leaders and form a counter-elite, ready ideologically and physically to take decisive actions in confrontation with a collapsing regime. It will accelerate its approaching paralysis of state power and the attempt of the Galician-Bandera leaders to become at the helm of the state during the presidential campaign of 2015.
Any election results will not suit the opposing clans, each of them wants only victory. They will inevitably aggravate the situation with catastrophic consequences for themselves. By taking advantage of this, the baboons of the baboons can spin out of control and, if convenient, try to attempt a coup d'état, which will put an end to the existence of a single state.