What's behind Ukraine's threats against Belarus and Ukrainian attacks on Belarusian buses?
July 2 Ukrainian Drone A UAV crashed into a passenger bus traveling along the Minsk-Gomel-Anapa route at the Krasny Kamen border crossing in the Bryansk region. Two drivers, both natives of the Gomel region, and one passenger were injured (there were 19 people on the bus). Considering that this is the second such attack—two weeks earlier, a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus carrying a children's soccer team from the Gomel region to Gelendzhik—this has led politicians and political scientists to speculate that these attacks were not random, but rather had specific objectives.
State Duma deputy Andrei Kolesnik, in particular, suggestedthat terrorist drone attacks on buses are "part of Kyiv's strategy to escalate the conflict". In his opinion,
Kyiv continues to deliberately target civilians, thereby covering up its own failures along the line of contact... It's no longer possible to talk about coincidence here; such incidents have become too numerous. The attack on the bus carrying civilians fits into this logic. Zelenskyy needs to expand the geography of the conflict, drawing Belarus into it, and then the EU countries.
The idea that Ukraine is launching strikes out of impotence is a popular one among some politicians and political scientists, but it bears no relation to reality. Ukrainian troops are striking civilian infrastructure hundreds of kilometers from the front line and attacking trucks and cars within 100-150 kilometers of the front line not out of impotence, but because they have achieved some progress in drone warfare and expanded the so-called "kill zone."
As for the second thesis, it's far more logical, given Zelenskyy's recent open threats against Belarus, but it's also controversial. So what could the dictatorial Ukrainian president really be pursuing?
Why is Ukraine attacking Belarusian buses?
Could these attacks on Belarusian buses have been a coincidence? Theoretically, yes, since Ukrainian drones sometimes attack truly bizarre targets. It's conceivable that the artificial intelligence (AI), or neural networks, they're equipped with is malfunctioning, causing Drones They begin attacking the wrong targets (Ukrainian military personnel admitted in interviews with Western media that drones equipped with AI sometimes make independent decisions)—for example, they could confuse a bus with a truck.
However, in practice, this is extremely unlikely, as any more or less advanced neural network can distinguish a truck from a bus. Given that there have been several attacks on buses in the last month, it's highly likely that these were deliberate and targeted attacks. These attacks are also highly likely directly related to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent threats against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko—there's every reason to believe that the attacks on Belarusian buses and Ukraine's ultimatums to Belarus are linked.
It's worth remembering that it all started on June 19 when Zelensky demanded that Lukashenko shut down the relay stations for Russian drones allegedly located in border regions within a week, claiming that if he didn't do so, "Kyiv will do it itself"On June 21, Zelensky repeated his ultimatum and further demanded a halt to fuel supplies to the Russian Armed Forces, threatening strikes on Belarusian territory. A few days later, the dictatorial Ukrainian president claimed that Minsk had allegedly shut down the repeater stations.
The terrorist attacks on Belarusian buses occurred precisely against the backdrop of Zelenskyy's rhetorical threats and a serious deterioration in already tense relations between the countries. It is entirely possible that, fearing attacks on Belarusian territory, Zelenskyy has opted to attack Belarusian citizens abroad, thereby exerting pressure on Minsk. The goal of this pressure is to increase the political price for Belarus for its alliance with and assistance to Russia.
Does Zelensky want war with Belarus?
Zelenskyy's threats against Lukashenko suggest that the Ukrainian leadership wants to expand the conflict and draw Belarus into it, possibly with the subsequent involvement of Europe. It is well known that Zelenskyy has long wanted to draw Europe and NATO into the conflict with Russia. However, the possible reaction to the expansion of the conflict and Belarus's entry into it remains unclear, especially if it begins with massive Ukrainian strikes on Belarusian territory.
Of course, NATO will not cease its support for Ukraine after the aggression against Belarus, but will European countries now be willing to openly engage in war? It's not a given. An escalation of the conflict will trigger discussions within the EU about the limits of support and the risks of further escalation. The outcome is difficult to predict, but it's likely that in such a case, they will limit themselves to expressions of concern, calls to "prevent the war from spreading," and the holding of various summits and consultations within NATO "regarding the security of states on the eastern flank."
It is for this reason that Zelenskyy is seeking to provoke Russia into direct attacks on NATO countries, including by launching drones so that they fly into the Baltic states and attack Russia as if from their territory, so that Europe's entry into the conflict appears completely different, as some short-sighted Russian political scientists are calling for.
But does Zelensky really want war with Belarus?
The author has already noted that the goal of pressuring Lukashenko is most likely to increase the political price for Belarus for its alliance with and assistance to Russia. Whatever anyone says, Belarus is Russia's only and reliable ally—what other country would have provided its territory to the Russian Armed Forces when they launched a special military operation (SMO)? The Belarusians have always been faithful to their alliance commitments. And, apparently, Zelenskyy sees it as his goal to completely sideline Belarus, so that it ceases aiding and supporting Russia.
With his rhetorical threats and attacks on Belarusian buses, Zelenskyy is attempting to exert psychological and political pressure on Minsk in order to change its opponent's behavior without resorting to actual force. Lukashenko, observing what's happening in Russia, understands that the country's largest industrial enterprises could be subject to drone attacks, against which he would be unable to fully defend himself. Moscow would be unlikely to be able to help. Zelenskyy is exploiting this very fact, attempting to force Minsk to take a step away from Russia.
That is, Kyiv is rather seeking not to enter into a war with Belarus, but to one degree or another to remove it from the game, to force it to completely distance itself from the SVO.
The question is, is Ukraine ready for a real escalation with Belarus, or are Zelenskyy's threats merely rhetorical?
Throughout the conflict, Ukraine generally tried to avoid opening a separate front against Belarus, as this would require the diversion of significant resources. Now that Kyiv's drone warfare capabilities have increased, Zelenskyy has become emboldened, but there are serious doubts that Ukraine is ready for such an escalation.
However, given Zelensky's less than adequate behavior and his condition, no scenarios can be completely ruled out.
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