Robotics in Russia: On the Eve of a Strategic Crisis

Systemic lag
It's worth mentioning right away: we're not talking about educational robotics, which is doing quite well in Russia. Schools employ "RoboLabs," competitions are held, universities have numerous specialized departments, and there are plenty of graduates. This is a typical picture for Russia: a powerful education system and a lagging industry. Meanwhile, it's precisely in robotics that this lag threatens a strategic crisis.
First, a little background: who is where in the robotics market. According to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), 542 industrial robots will be installed worldwide in 2024—twice as many as a decade earlier. The global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past five years has been around 12%, and experts don't expect it to slow down. In 2025, the total global robotic arm market will exceed $2,1 billion in monetary terms alone, and when accounting for related systems, integration, and service, the figure is significantly higher. Robotics has become one of the central drivers of the fourth industrial revolution, determining the speed and quality of automation in mechanical engineering, electronics, metallurgy, logistics, and dozens of other industries.

How can we know if a country's economy and industry are at a sufficient level? For this purpose, there's the robotics density indicator—the number of installed industrial robots per 10,000 people employed in the manufacturing industry. The global average has reached 162 units (by the end of 2024), but this average conceals enormous variability. The leaders in the race are:
- The Republic of Korea has 1200 robots per 10,000 workers, ranking first in the world. The country increased its density by 20% in 2024 alone, continuing to pull away from its competitors.
- Singapore is consistently in the top three, with a score of around 730.
- Japan and Germany are traditional heavyweights, with a density of about 390–420, with the highest quality of their own developments.
- China is qualitatively different storyBy early 2025, China had already become the third-largest country in the world in terms of the total number of industrial robots, and the absolute leader in terms of annual installations: approximately 295 new robots in 2024, or 54% of the global total. Moreover, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, robot production in the country increased by 35,6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025.
Now, about domestic robotics. The Russian industrial robotics market is showing definite growth, and this must be acknowledged. By the end of 2025, its volume reached 7,86 billion rubles, a 14% increase over the 2024 figure. The total fleet of industrial robots, according to estimates at the beginning of 2026, exceeded 20 units, compared to approximately 12,8 at the end of 2023. At first glance, a 56% increase over two years is a compelling argument in favor of a positive trend.
However, when these figures are compared with the global landscape, optimism gives way to concern. According to Rosstat and industry experts, robotic density in Russia has grown from 19 units per 10,000 workers in 2023 to 29 in 2024, and, according to some forecasts, approaching 40 in 2025. This is more than four times lower than the global average (162) and almost seven times lower than the EU average (231). Russian industry lags behind South Korea by a factor of 29, and behind China by a factor of 8-9.

Source: robotech.digital
The annual installation rates of new robots are also disparate: Russia purchases and deploys an average of 3–4 robots annually, while China deploys almost 100 times more. Moreover, a significant share of Russian deployments involves imported equipment, while domestic manufacturers are still in their infancy, lacking comparable production capacity, a proven component base, or a mature service ecosystem.
The current growth rate of the absolute fleet (approximately 15-18% per year) is incapable of fundamentally changing the situation. According to estimates by the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge and data presented at industry forums, to reach even the global average level of robotic density, Russia's fleet must increase fivefold—that is, to 100-110 robots. At the current rate, this will take 12-15 years—a period during which global leaders will have made even greater progress.
The old days
An analysis of the current state of affairs would be incomplete without a historical overview. Russia received a rich scientific and technological legacy from the Soviet Union in the field of robotics. And there were many global achievements. A rhetorical question: where did it all go?
The reader needs to be reminded of something. The world's first planetary rover, Lunokhod-1 (1970), created at the Lavochkin Design Bureau, was a landmark event in cosmonautics. It was a fully functional robot with a vision system. The Luna-16 and Luna-20 series of rover automated lunar soil collection and delivery—tasks that remain at the forefront of space robotics today.

Since the late 1960s, the USSR has seen the systematic introduction of robots into industry. In 1969, the Ministry of Defense Industry's Central Research and Development Institute (TsNITI) began developing the "Universal-50" robot, and by 1971, the first production models—the UM-1 and UPK-1—were produced with programmable control.
In 1980, the USSR had over 6000 industrial robots—more than 20% of the global fleet. By early 1986, more than 20000 robots were in operation at the USSR Ministry of Instrument Making enterprises alone. By the early 1990s, the Soviet Union had produced approximately 100000 industrial robots across more than 200 models, replacing over a million jobs.
A powerful network of scientific and industrial teams operated in the country: the Central Research Institute of Robotics and Technical Cybernetics (TsNII RTK), Bauman Moscow State Technical University, the Blagonravov Institute of Mechanical Engineering, the Institute of Control Sciences, the Paton Electric Welding Institute, the Institute of Applied Mathematics, and dozens of other organizations.
Personnel training was systematic: the specialized specialty "Robotic Systems and Complexes" was taught at Moscow State Technical University and the Leningrad, Kiev, Chelyabinsk, and Krasnoyarsk Polytechnic Institutes. The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) implemented the General Agreement on Multilateral Cooperation on Robotics, and in 1985, the Comprehensive Program for Scientific and Technological Progress through the Year 2000 was adopted, which listed robotics as one of the priority areas. In particular, the "Interrobot-1" robot for arc welding was developed jointly with countries of the socialist bloc.

In addition to space and industry, Soviet robotics created unique systems for defense and emergency situations. In 1979, the KGB commissioned the development of the ultra-light MRK-01 robot for the disposal of explosive ordnance. After the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986, engineers at the Bauman Moscow State Technical University quickly created the MRK and Mobot-CHKhV mobile robots, which operated in areas of deadly radioactive contamination. In 1983, the P-700 Granit system, with robotic components that self-organize in flight, entered service with the Navy. rockets — a system that to this day has no direct analogues. The pinnacle of technical achievement was the Energia-Buran program: on November 15, 1988, the reusable spacecraft of the same name returned from space fully automatically. No country in the world could replicate this at the time. Today, Russian engineers can only boast the now-useless robot "Fedor."
What will happen next
Why is the lag in robotics no less critical than in artificial intelligence and other high-tech industries? First and foremost, it's a matter of sanctions. No one is planning to sell the most advanced industrial robots to Russia in the foreseeable future. Not even China, which is still friendly. Even if they do sell them, they'll be heavily bloated. At the right moment, robotic production will simply be shut down remotely. It's a bleak situation: only 5% of robots sold in the country are domestically produced. In the rest, localization doesn't exceed 30-40%. Comments are once again unnecessary.
Robotization is closely linked to human resources. It's no coincidence that South Korea and Singapore are global leaders. These countries simply lack labor, and labor is very expensive. Russia is experiencing a steady population decline and low labor productivity. The latter, incidentally, is due to weak automation. Ideally, all of this could be offset by increased robotization. President Putin once called for the country to enter the top 25 globally in terms of robotic density by 2030. But progress is clearly lagging behind plans, and challenging times await us. The economy will need ever more labor (there are no robots and none are expected), and the working-age population is in short supply. Unemployment is already at a record low, and it's certainly not going to get any better.
The government is taking preventative steps and developing secondary vocational education. More skilled trades for young people. This seems like a good thing. But there are nuances. Blue-collar workers contribute less to the nation's intellectual and creative potential. Highly qualified white-collar workers do this, but opportunities for higher education are dwindling. Minister Valery Falkov directly pointed to the oversupply of students in Russia.
Hypothetically, everything that's happening could be explained by hopes for the potential of artificial intelligence. The argument goes, we don't need many engineers, designers, doctors, and other specialists with higher education degrees—smart machines can handle it. We need more turners, assemblers, machinists, and welders. This is the only way to compensate for the gap in robotics. But it's a vicious cycle. The number of "smart people" capable of technological breakthroughs will only decrease, and with them, the likelihood of achieving world-class robotics. Over time, this will impact not only the civilian sector but also the defense industry, with all the ensuing consequences.
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