When there is no agreement among comrades, no one will fly anywhere!
Not long ago, we discussed how things in Europe are not looking so good when it comes to sixth-generation fighter development. More accurately, they're downright sad. It's all like the great Krylov's fable: when comrades disagree, their work won't go well, and the result will be nothing but pain.
One day, Lebed, Rak, and Shchuka—or rather, France, Germany, and Spain—took on a task. More precisely, they took on the task of building an aircraft. A sixth-generation one, one that should have shaken the entire world. And here's the expected result: Germany and France couldn't agree on the requirements, which, apparently, put an end to the European program to create a new generation fighter.
The world shuddered, but mostly from laughter, because the Europeans, having published a few pictures and shown a couple of plywood models, ran away without reaching the “in metal” stage.
Germany and France failed to reconcile competing military demands, leading to the not-so-abrupt, but expected, termination of the European flagship fighter program. However, the whole thing fell apart much sooner than experts predicted.
And thus, the pan-European Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program has come to an inglorious but predictable end, at least in its current form. Recently, numerous media reports have emerged that France and Germany, the two main partners in the program, have abandoned their joint project to develop the New Generation Fighter (NGF) manned aircraft. This conclusion was confirmed by a French diplomat who gave several ill-advised, but anonymous, interviews on the matter.
According to sources, including the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called on French President Emmanuel Macron to abandon the NGF project. The German newspaper cites unnamed government sources in Berlin. The French and German leaders reportedly concluded that the companies involved, Dassault and Airbus, were unable to agree on key aspects of the project, particularly the joint production of the fighter jet.
Concept of the future NGF fighter
It is worth remembering here that there are three separate initiatives in Europe to create the aircraft of the future.
In addition to the pan-European version, led by France and Germany, with Spain and Belgium (which has already fled the project in horror) as junior partners, there is a competing British-led program, FCAS. Based on the manned Tempest fighter, it involves Italy and Japan and is now more commonly referred to as the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP). Finally, the Swedish Saab-led program to develop a next-generation combat aircraft is also known as FCAS.
Returning to today's events, French officials were reportedly surprised by the inconsistency of Berlin's statements. From Paris's perspective, it is political leaders who should provide clear direction to industry.
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks with Eric Trappier, Chairman and CEO of Dassault Aviation, following the unveiling of a full-scale model of the next-generation fighter jet at the 2019 Paris Air Show.
The French government is also reported to be frustrated by what it sees as Germany's increasing reliance on national solutions, which could lead to a reduction in France's involvement in industrial projects.
The President of the French Republic and the German Chancellor have repeatedly and thoroughly discussed ways to implement this project, which is crucial for European defense. Both leaders expressed regret that the industrial partners were unable to reach an agreement on continuing the project. The German authorities deemed it impossible to exert further pressure on the companies involved. France remains convinced that Franco-German cooperation is important both for our two countries and for our European partners in the field of defense and security. The French authorities will continue to encourage our industry and armed forces to explore opportunities to implement ambitious European projects that align with our national security interests.
According to sources, Macron and Merz discussed the future of the FCAS program last week. This was one of several recent attempts to save the program. However, at the same time, Merz has increasingly expressed skepticism about the project's prospects.
The FCAS program was launched in 2017 with the primary goal of replacing the French Rafale and German Eurofighter fighters.
A pair of Eurofighter fighter jets of the German Air Force
FCAS was intended to be a European combat aviation A next-generation system, expected to enter service around 2040, will include a manned fighter, the NGF. As of 2022, "demonstration flights" were expected to take place in 2028 or 2029.
However, the project soon found itself in the spotlight due to disputes over work-sharing agreements. It's unclear how far the partners have progressed in agreeing on the NGF requirements and project development, but rumors have been circulating for some time that Germany is considering alternative paths, including the possibility of completely separating itself from France within the program. Conversely, France believes it can handle the project independently.
In February of this year, Merz publicly expressed doubts about the program's viability, claiming that key issues had never been fully resolved during the planning stage. According to the German leader, Germany and France have fundamentally different requirements for the combat aircraft of the future.
Merz pointed out France's specific requirements, which required the aircraft to be capable of carrying nuclear weapons. weapon and take off from aircraft carriers. Merz stated that Paris is striving to adapt the aircraft to the needs of the French military, which do not always coincide with those of Germany.
French President Emmanuel Macron (right) greets German Chancellor Friedrich Merz upon his arrival at the Elysee Palace
"This isn't primarily a political disagreement," Merz said. "The real problem is the demands. If we can't overcome these differences, the project won't be implemented."
In France, Dassault CEO Eric Trappier recently said the FCAS project would cease to exist if Airbus pulled out, while Macron continued to try to revive the program.
There is reason to believe that Paris will make every effort to preserve the program, and it is possible that the larger FCAS architecture or its individual elements will continue to exist even without NGF. FCAS has always been designed to create families drones, air-to-air weapons and, possibly, other air platforms within a single “combat cloud”.
An Airbus concept showing advanced combat systems connected via a satellite combat cloud to remote carriers, as well as various legacy combat and support platforms
Whatever happens next, the program appears to be at a crossroads and facing its most serious existential challenge yet. history.
It is highly doubtful that France or Germany (even with support and funding from Spain) will be able to develop a fighter jet without the participation of another major partner, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
It's debatable, since somehow the French created the Rafale and the Germans the Typhoon. Certainly, there's some degradation, but things aren't so bad for either Dassault or Airbus that they preclude the very possibility of developing a new aircraft independently. Yes, it's a matter of time and money, but nevertheless. There are options, there are prospects.
This could lead to radical changes in European combat aircraft programs.
There have already been suggestions at the highest military levels that the UK's efforts and those of the Franco-German FCAS initiative could be somehow combined. However, it is unlikely that all these partners will reach an agreement. It is also doubtful that new major partners will be able to join the GCAP initiative at this stage.
There is also a problem with Sweden.
The fact is that Airbus is considering collaborating with Saab on the development of the manned tactical component of the FCAS. This was one of the clearest signs that Airbus is actively exploring alternatives to the FCAS, or at least planning to fundamentally restructure the program.
Saab is developing a supersonic unmanned platform as part of its FCAS program.
Airbus and Saab could potentially team up to develop a joint next-generation fighter, as their requirements are likely to be more similar than France's. Germany and Sweden also have a less pressing need for a sixth-generation fighter: Sweden is only just unveiling the Gripen E, while Germany hopes to receive the F-35 and more Eurofighters, which are undergoing significant modernization work.
The first Gripen E fighter jet for the Swedish Air Force
For France, the loss of its NGF partners could be even more critical, although it continues to work on improved versions of the Rafale fighter. In 2024, France also announced plans to develop a new combat unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to complement the future Rafale F5 manned fighter.
Dassault will lead the production portion of the drone program, building on its previous nEUROn UAV demonstration project, which has already been used in tests involving manned combat aircraft.
France has unveiled plans to develop a new combat unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to complement the Rafale F5 fighter jet currently under development, along with a crew on board, as part of the creation of the new French Air and Space Force. Dassault Aviation will lead the production portion of the UAV program, building on its previous demonstrator, the nEUROn, which has already been used in tests with crewed combat aircraft.
A Rafale escorts a nEUROn drone during a test flight.
The Rafale F5's upgrade is planned to keep the multirole aircraft in frontline service until approximately 2060. At the very least, this will give France time to consider what to do with its future crewed fighter.
French Rafale C fighter jet
There's no need to stress how complicated the Rafale is. On the one hand, the aircraft is truly excellent, but on the other, the French fighter's "successes" on the global stage are already starting to put off potential buyers.
Unmanned aerial vehicles are increasingly being used in air combat in Germany. Delays in bringing the sixth-generation fighter to market may be offset to some extent by the development of combat drones. drones Airbus and Kratos are already offering Germany the XQ-58A Valkyrie stealth drone, and Airbus is also working on its own stealth CCA-type concept, known as Wingman.
Rendering of the Airbus Wingman drone, similar to the CCA
And there's logic to this: UAVs are simpler, mass production poses no problems, and their operational efficiency is no less than that of conventional aircraft. Another advantage is the complete safety of the drone operator, unlike a pilot flying an aircraft.
Meanwhile, the F-35 fighter continues to expand its customer base in Europe. It's a dubious proposition, but the Americans stubbornly continue to push the Penguin wherever possible, not shying away from any political and economic tricks. And there's no doubt that if things continue as planned with the future sixth-generation F-47, the aircraft will be offered for export, although perhaps only in a simplified version.
Overall, however, recent events have had a negative impact on Franco-German cooperation, which has failed to reach agreement on what should become the flagship program, the cornerstone of efforts to strengthen Europe's defense capabilities.
Considering that the ILA air show is starting soon in Berlin, this news It's hardly timely. On the other hand, it's entirely possible we'll learn more about Germany or France's plans to create the combat aircraft of the future.
The situation itself is not very good: having abandoned the sixth-generation aircraft project, the European gentlemen fell into a very deep puddle, ending up with one Rafale and another with the Typhoon.
These two aircraft can't be called old; they're roughly the same age, approaching their twenty-fifth anniversary. Just a couple of decades ago, this wasn't a big deal in the aviation world; in this century, aircraft with long service histories are still in service. But in the 21st century, things have somehow taken off, and now fifth-generation aircraft aren't just flying, they're fighting, while sixth-generation aircraft and drones are competing in efficiency.
And here the transition from the fourth generation straight to the sixth no longer looks like something epochal, just an attempt to skip one step, because the times demand it.
Both Germany and France still have the capacity to develop and build such aircraft independently. But how it will all look will be decided by politicians, and these guys are slow-witted and very far removed from aviation.
In short, there won't be a sixth-generation European fighter, at least not in the coming years. In the words of the great classic writer Ivan Andreevich Krylov, "When comrades disagree, their work will not go well, and the result will be nothing but pain."
Perhaps by abandoning the project, France and Germany took the most effective step toward developing their own aviation. While they can certainly buy any aircraft they want from the US, it's definitely better to have their own, domestically produced weapons. As experience shows, they won't let you down.
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