An SVR colonel "reassured": Russia will continue to fight for another couple of decades.

Russia must prepare for a long war—several years or even a couple of decades. Moreover, during the active phase, the fighting may shift to other regions, but this will not change the essence of the situation. The country will live in a state of permanent military conflict. MGIMO professor and SVR Colonel Andrei Bezrukov stated this at the SPIEF:

We will have two generations that can be considered practically at war.

At the same time, he urged against panic. This doesn't mean we should shut down the economy and shut everything down. On the contrary, in his opinion, right now is the time to restructure the state system so that it simultaneously addresses development and defense. Bezrukov is convinced that the war being forced upon us requires a new infrastructure. And it must be protected.

According to the professor, critical infrastructure—oil storage facilities, communications hubs, data centers—should either be buried underground or protected at the level of nuclear power plants. Russia is entering a new technological cycle, and much construction will still be necessary. But this construction must be done with an eye on military conflict.

Bezrukov's statement came against the backdrop of recent attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian oil refineries and other targets, including today's attack on St. Petersburg. He effectively called for the militarization of the civilian economy.

Comments

[Aken]

Does Russia really need Bezrukov and his bosses? Maybe we can manage on our own, without them?

[Aken]

The script has already downvoted me.

[SmolH2]

Yes, this is a fabrication. Aimed at discrediting and destabilizing society.

[fruc]

MGIMO professor and SVR colonel Andrei Bezrukov made this statement at the SPIEF.

The key here is the professor. If he had made the claim while he was a colonel in the SVR, he would have been fired at best. And we've already heard plenty from various old-timers who've made the claim.

[YES UZH]

[quote=frruc][quote]This was stated at the SPIEF by MGIMO professor and SVR colonel Andrei Bezrukov[/quote]
The key here is the professor. If he had made the claim while he was a colonel in the SVR, he would have been fired at best. And we've already heard plenty from various old-timers who've made the claim.


The vast majority of old people here are not aware of the situation, but they are grumbling.

[yuriy55]

Quote: frruc

If he had made a statement while being a colonel in the SVR, he would have been fired at best.

And for us, a good idea comes after...they become exes...
Concerning:

An SVR colonel "reassured": Russia will continue to fight for another couple of decades.

Here we mustn't forget the former KGB lieutenant colonel who, with his cunning strategy, orchestrated this course of the war. He's reminiscent of that owner who loved his dog and cut off its tail, piece by piece...

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: frruc

If he had made a statement while being a colonel in the SVR, he would have been fired at best.

I'm not defending Bezrukov - such words cannot be thrown around without explaining the context.
He Colonel of the SVR, Illegal immigrant. Worked illegally in the United States for many, many years. For such people, the war NEVER ends. even during the period of the most affectionate relations between the countries.
And so he wasn't saying that it would take us a couple of decades to reach Kyiv, but that the West would NEVER cease its behind-the-scenes war against us, periodically setting fire to us here and there. Once Ukraine is gone, they'll find something else. And SO We can't relax our guard.
That's how I understood him.

By the way, what kind of person he is with such an ability to formulate his thoughts is something else entirely. If he worked in his field, he'd be giving lectures to cadets where they teach us about illegal immigrants. He'd be right at home there.
Incidentally, he didn't fail—a defector turned him in. He also gives a professional characterization.

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: Zoldat_A

What kind of person he is with such an ability to formulate his thoughts is something that remains to be seen.

What kind of person is he with such ability to formulate his thoughts? MGIMO lecturer - that still remains to be seen.

Editing time has elapsed ...

[Reptiloid]

This is how I understood it --- Zoldat_A

Hello Igor! In 2002, I wrote in a comment that I was unhappy that the forest park in our residential area hadn't had paved paths for over 30 years. And then, as soon as the SVO started, they started laying the pavers! In 2023, for probably a whole month, there were celebrations for the city's anniversary, including festive festivities and free concerts. Fairs on the Field of Mars in the beautiful costumes of the time, which I consider blasphemous. As if everyone was noble back then! This Monday, June 1st, I was driving near the forest park and saw four-year-old pavers ripped out and scattered. Indispensable specialists surround everything with a wire fence. Yesterday, I drove past the same place again. Indispensable specialists are gone, the equipment is abandoned, it's the middle of the day. Meanwhile, in the city, there are free festive events, concerts, and festivities every day... So, 20 years of this attitude doesn't surprise me [sarcasm]. I'm unhappy with all of this. Besides this, the city has seen the emergence of monuments and small sculptures, the debatable question of how necessary they are. And some of them even have errors...

[Zoldat_A]

Dmitry, !

I could go on and on about how much I love your city, about who is building what and how...
I know one thing: everything that is being built today will not evoke the same awe in my great-great-grandchildren as what deeply excites me, and it will not last as long...

As for today's monuments and small sculptures... Not everyone, of course, is lucky enough to be a Falconet or a Montferrand, but when I hear a "sculptor" say, "I'm an artist, I see THIS way...," I want to chop off their hands so they never create anything again. At worst, let them store their "sculptures" away at their dacha.
The "emperor has no clothes" principle hasn't been abolished among critics. No one wants to look like a dumb retrograde if everyone is unanimously declaring that something is a "timeless masterpiece."
And a separate question - how much does it cost.

[Reptiloid]

Igor! I just saw a typo. Your comment should not be 2002 , 2022 !!! that is, the meaning was distorted
Yes, the city is beautiful. Well-kept. They often give the pre-revolutionary buildings a makeover and they're simply a sight to behold.
Of course, small plastic pieces are decorative, but there's already too much of it. A monument to Blok was already erected during the Second World War. Not to mention there's no room for a view, but many criticized the monument itself for its appearance. Of course, there are costs. There are specific errors in various monuments, which were noted, but they remain. The relatives don't mind, so they didn't start a dispute. And the main thing is, after all, that the Second World War is underway, our soldiers are dying in the air defense system. And now residents and infrastructure are being targeted by drones. Do we really need daily celebratory events? I think it's wrong.

[Zoldat_A]

Quote: Reptiloid

Yes, the city is beautiful.

I would kill whoever is defiling him like that... Nowadays, those "art historians" who are afraid to admit that the emperor has no clothes call it "a synthesis of the classics with the modern."

[Zoldat_A]

The Great Ranevskaya said it best about this kind of "art" that defiles Leningrad.

When I see shit on the lawn, it's not art. It's just shit on the lawn and nothing more.

They've got Leningrad fed up with their "performance"...

[Reptiloid]

Everyone's gotten used to these sculptures. What's good about them, for example? It was under capitalism that constructivist architecture, after the Revolution and before the Great Patriotic War, began to be restored and received the status of ARCHITECTURAL MONUMENTS. This applies to residential, industrial, and cultural buildings. I like this situation.

[hrych]

Quote: SmollH2

And the destabilization of society.

The upper crust can't, the lower crust won't. Who's to blame and what's to be done? Wake up Herzen already... There's a war going on, and Nicholas II is just playing around, like Fauberge. He himself set up these idiots and traitors...

[SmolH2]

I wouldn't make such a sweeping statement. There are plenty of groups there that aren't friendly to each other. Shoigu, for example, is in no way part of Putin's circle. But I won't argue with him in general.

[AdAstra]

Why then hasn't this colonel been taken away in handcuffs in a Black Maria yet?

[SmolH2]

I'm surprised myself. Perhaps this leak is intended for more than just domestic consumption. Or perhaps not domestic at all.

[YES UZH]

[quote=Aken]Does Russia really need Bezrukov and his bosses? Maybe we can manage on our own, without them?

Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst... There will be no Ukraine, they won't let us leave the war anyway if we continue fighting like we do now.

[esso]

Quote from Aken

Does Russia really need Bezrukov and his bosses? Maybe we can manage on our own, without them?

Can you speak for Russia? Where is he wrong? Everything needs to be restructured, and many have spoken about this before him. We also need to get rid of the window dressing and those who love beautiful reports.

[Gunther]

The SVR colonel's statement uses the frog principle against Russia (which was boiled SLOWLY, and it didn't notice). Listen to the full text, not just the excerpts.

[Alien ...]

"You can't live without me, and with me, you have no idea what's going to happen."... (youknowthat)

[2al]

A. Bezrukov is a true expert, not just a couch potato, and I have been convinced more than once of the accuracy of his foresights.

[Radical]

Well, deal with it, who's stopping you?

[Aken]

A lot of people are interfering. Just a lot.

[Alexander Odintsov]

Today's Russia cannot prevail in war. A new, strong Russia will emerge that renounces liberalism—and then all wars will end. See USSR 1945-1980.

[Aken]

It will endure everything - and broad, clear
Breast pave the way for himself.
The only pity is to live in this beautiful time
I don’t have to - neither to me nor to you
(Tse)

[al3x]

It's more likely that 1917 will repeat itself than two decades of war.

[Aken]

We need to clarify. February 1917. The question is, how long will the new Kerensky last?

[Mangel olys]

Analysts predict September 2026

[tabex]

It seems that was the intention

[ZovSailor]

You don't know who to believe: the Kremlin is talking about the end coming soon; apparently, the elite is tired, and it's risky for the nouveau riche and billionaires to invest in the country.
Russia can't possibly be at a crossroads. For what kind of independence and sovereignty did Russian soldiers and civilians lay down their lives?

[topol717]

Quote: ZovSailor

You don't know who to believe: the Kremlin is talking about the end coming soon; apparently, the elite is tired, and it's risky for the nouveau riche and billionaires to invest in the country.

The Kremlin is saying what the electorate wants to hear, not what will happen. Just look at the ruble/dollar exchange rate. Getting money out of the country is a problem, and why bother? Here, OFZs offer 15% per annum without breaking a sweat. Compare that to 2-4% in developed EU countries and the US, despite the ruble constantly strengthening. For earnings like that, everyone will demand more of the party.

[Elektronik2000]

Bezrukov can't even hope for two decades of war. A protracted military conflict requires stability and a shared societal goal. Given the glaring wealth gap, where some are driven mad by the thought of billions they've amassed, while others are gorging themselves on them, any prolonged military action will eventually lead to the poor becoming tired of fighting for the interests of the elite. Then, no security forces or punitive bodies will save them; the experience of revolutions shows that these are particularly adept at recognizing the moment when the people can no longer be contained and quickly vanish into the surrounding landscape.

[alexoff]

Quote: Elektronik2000

sooner or later the poor will get tired of fighting for the interests of the elite

What do you mean, will it get boring? No one will ask—enemy columns will roll through our regions again, and the poor will go fight for themselves and for the bosses' favors.

[topol717]

Quote: Elektronik2000

In the context of a glaring wealth gap, where some are going crazy because they have nowhere to spend their billions, while others are eating it up without salt, any prolonged military action will lead to the poor sooner or later getting tired of fighting for the interests of the elite.

When you ask an AI to compose a text, edit it later, otherwise its ears stick out. It's like in 404, where the poor have financial problems and golden toilets, but in Russia, anyone who's hungry can sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense and get a good, timely salary. So, Russia will definitely hold out for another three years with this principle. But who would have thought in 2022 that this would drag on for four years or more?

[Elektronik2000]

Well, if you immediately equate anyone who can place commas more or less correctly and write without gross grammatical errors with AI, then my condolences. :) The article talks about 15-20 years of war. How does that compare to your "it'll definitely last another three years"? Are you also suggesting that pensioners sign up for a contract with the Ministry of Defense and go get a "good, timely salary"?

[Nastia makarova]

If these are military pensioners, then they should be forcibly enrolled at the front.

[kenig1]

You might think that in the West there is equality and justice, and no gap between social classes.

[Russian_Ninja]

In the West, there is no SVO that widens this gap (or at least demonstrates it).

So yes, everyone has problems, but problems need to be solved, and not be happy that you are “not the only one.”

[Stas157]

Quote: kenig1

You might think that in the West there is equality and justice, and no gap between social classes.

At least there's no war there. And ordinary people's salaries are much higher. And cars are cheaper. And if war breaks out somewhere, as modern history shows, a significant portion of the population immediately flees to safer countries. That's the new reality.

[Alexander Raikov]

Putin is getting on in years. He needs to leave with dignity and go down in history with a "plus" sign. Time is lost. The decision could have been made as early as 2022. In fact, in 2014-2015, there wasn't enough courage to act in a way that would prevent either the ATO or the Soviet Military District. It's now clear that without large-scale combined arms operations like the Great Patriotic War, Putin's stated goals and objectives for February 2022 will not be successfully achieved. How this will happen now is difficult to predict. But we must finally recognize that the West has lost fear and respect for the Russian Armed Forces. The Russian army's credibility is at its lowest since 2008. The reasons are clear. Of course, the questions "who is to blame?" and "what is to be done?" remain unanswered. They await answers from the ruling class in Russia.

[Nastia makarova]

In fact, the Russian army is now in first place in combat readiness, which is very worrying in the West.

[Prometey]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

In fact, the Russian army is now in first place in combat readiness, which is very worrying in the West.

From the end?

[Nastia makarova]

in first place!!! See the ratings

[AdAstra]

What about the Kursk region? The fact that Koreans are even needed. Is this due to combat readiness being at the forefront, or what?

[Nastia makarova]

What's wrong with Koreans? Extra people never hurt.

[Stas157]

Quote: Alexander Raykov

and remain in history with a "+" sign

What's the upside? Even if there is an upside somewhere, it's immediately offset by two downsides.

[Prometey]

Quote: Alexander Raykov

Putin is already getting on in years. He needs to leave with dignity and go down in history as a "plus."

For me personally and for the majority of the population, he will forever remain the most worthless ruler.

[Nastia makarova]

This is just for you, but the majority still supports Putin, even if they criticize him.

[2al]

They are waiting for a response from the supporting class in Russia.

The ruling class is never held accountable for anything. Only those who replace it—the counter-elites—are held accountable.

[YES UZH]

[quote=Elektronik2000]There won't be two decades of war; Bezrukov can't even hope for it. A protracted military conflict requires stability and a shared societal goal. In conditions of a glaring wealth gap, where some are driven mad by the thought of billions they've been given, while others are gorging themselves on them without salt, any prolonged military action will eventually lead to the poor becoming tired of fighting for the interests of the elite. Then, no security forces or punitive organs will save them; the experience of revolutions shows that these are very good at recognizing the moment when the people can no longer be contained and quickly dissolve into the surrounding landscape.

Well, it depends on how you put it. This war, its continuation, suits everyone except us—the West, China. And it can continue regardless of your, our wishes. If we refuse, it will be the end of us as a viable country and a united people, especially if they deprive us of nuclear weapons and divide us into pieces. Besides, warfare is changing rapidly, and in five years, having so many people on the front, LBS, will not be necessary.

[Vadim Isaev]

The people need to be organized. Parties that reflect the interests of the people do not exist now, nor are there any in sight. And what are "the people" anyway? The Yeltsin coup changed the structure of society.

[Xnumx vis]

Quote: Elektronik2000

The experience of revolutions shows that these are very good at recognizing the moment when the people can no longer be contained and quickly dissolve into the surrounding landscape.

Oh, vey! You are a prophet from faraway Ashdod! So, how are things with the Mosi with the tick?

[Elektronik2000]

Do you have any problems with Jews? I sympathize. I was born in a remote village in the Non-Black Earth Region, where the nearest Jew was a photographer in the district center 50 km away. That's probably why I'm completely indifferent to them :)

[Xnumx vis]

Quote: Elektronik2000

Do you have any problems with Jews? I sympathize. I was born in a remote village in the Non-Black Earth Region, where the nearest Jew was a photographer in the district center 50 km away. That's probably why I'm completely indifferent to them :)

So I was also born on Wrangel Island, or Vrungel... There are no Jews, there are Arctic foxes and meteorologists.

[sak1969]

Russia needs to prepare for a long war—several years or even a couple of decades. Moreover, during the active phase, the fighting could shift to other regions.

And these are the losses of the parties in Podolyaki - results for 2026 https://ok.ru/video/10851655420544

[Andrey Mishin]

It's unlikely, but there are about five percent.

[Andrei Nikolaevich]

Personally, I had no doubt that our army would take five or six regions of Ukraine within a month. But it turns out that tank biathlons and nuclear weapons are no indicator of power.

[Andrey Nikolaev_4]

A week before the start of the Second World War, I read a translation of a Western press article on Inosmi, where an American expert explained that Ukraine would fight on the ground, and the forces we planned to deploy were insufficient even to achieve local goals, let alone anything more. I laughed at him then, but now I'm wondering: why did some American understand everything, while our General Staff, the Supreme Command, and a bunch of think tanks and intelligence agencies didn't?

[Andrey Mishin]

Our professors are a thing unto themselves, not in the philosophical sense, but in isolation from the truth. And then there are the SVR analysts—they were the ones reporting on the political situation in Ukraine, saying everything would collapse.

[topol717]

Quote: Andrey Nikolaev_4

Ukraine will fight, and the forces we planned to deploy are insufficient even to achieve local goals, let alone anything more. I laughed at him then, but now I'm wondering: why did some American understand everything, while our General Staff, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, with a bunch of think tanks and intelligence agencies, didn't?

You either didn't read well or don't remember the events. Let me remind you that the Russian army marched to Kyiv, and in addition to Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, it occupied half of the Kharkiv region. But then negotiations and goodwill gestures began, which evolved into regroupings. Kyiv could have been taken as early as March 3, 2022, or, worst case scenario, March 8. But they decided the job was done, calmed down, and began negotiations.

[Ivan Mladic]

We got there... But at what cost!!! It's unlikely they'd take them, but they could have pinned them down and held them. And encouraging them with gestures—that's complete nonsense... Then I lost faith in my comrades and gentlemen.

[invisible_man]

Kyiv could have been captured as early as March 3, 2022, or, worst case scenario, March 8. But they decided the job was done, calmed down, and began negotiations.

This, to put it mildly, is untrue. The fighting for Kyiv began immediately after the troops were deployed, but the Russian Armed Forces were unable to break through Irpin and Brovary. Then the Ukrainian Armed Forces finally woke up and began cutting off our supplies. So much so that they were threatened with encirclement and defeat. Under a plausible pretext, they were forced to retreat.

[topol717]

Quote from invisible_man

The fighting for Kyiv began immediately after the troops were deployed, but the Russian Armed Forces were unable to break through Irpen and Brovary.

This is your opinion, I have slightly different information.

[invisible_man]

Unfortunately, this isn't just my opinion, but also an objective (though not universally acceptable) reality. There are videos of the fights, participants' recollections, and so on.

[karabas-barabas]

Quote from: topol717

This is your opinion, I have slightly different information.

What information? Without Gastomel and Irpen's control, it was impossible to deploy the troops. This control was lacking from the very first minutes. Entire battalions of volunteer battalions were laid low by the Ukrainians, but they held their positions until the main forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with heavy equipment arrived. And the Airborne Forces, no matter how skilled they were, had little resistance against heavy attack equipment.

[invisible_man]

After the main forces approached Gostomel, Belarus began unsuccessful attempts to advance through Bucha (that's a separate story) to Irpen and onward to Kyiv. These attempts were unsuccessful because the enemy had already established a defense along the Irpen River and brought up artillery. It must be said that artillery, in conjunction with the Bayraktars, was quite effective.

Gostomel itself (or more precisely, the Antonov airfield) was originally planned to be used for a carousel landing of the Airborne Forces, but the Ukrainians, not being fools, immediately took control of it and severely damaged the runway.

[karabas-barabas]

Approaching from Belarus was a strange decision, given the theater of operations stretching from the border to Kyiv. The strike force itself was enormous, but with no means of operating except on public roads, the columns stretched for tens of kilometers, a fact the Ukrainian Armed Forces exploited quite skillfully. And the airport in Gastomiel was initially uncovered; it was held by Ukrainian volunteer battalions until the arrival of heavy forces, which ultimately forced the Russian troops to retreat with artillery fire.

[invisible_man]

And the airport in Gastomele was not initially under fire control <...> it was held by volunteer battalions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

The airport wasn't held, but rather recaptured from our paratroopers, by units of the 4th Rapid Response Brigade, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, and the 80th and 95th Airborne Assault Brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in addition to volunteer battalions. The brigades arrived there around 3:30 PM, after the airport had been intensively bombarded by artillery and aircraft.

[Xnumx vis]

Quote from invisible_man

Then the Ukrainian Armed Forces finally woke up and began cutting off our supplies. So much so that the threat of encirclement and defeat arose. I had to pack up under a plausible pretext.

This is more like the truth. Russia launched a special operation with a very small army force. And when entering Ukraine, an order was given not to shoot unless absolutely necessary. Many blunders.

[invisible_man]

Whoever gave the go-ahead for this operation didn't take into account the combat readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces or the moral and psychological preparedness of the Ukrainians to mount an armed response. Either they were fed disinformation, or they've lost touch with reality.

[Russian_Ninja]

Listen, we're not playing a strategy game where you can capture buildings with soldiers and lure away population with monarchs.
We got there ≠ we could have taken it.
For example, they were able to take Kherson, but they couldn’t hold it, they started cutting off supplies

[topol717]

Quote: Russian_Ninja

Listen, we're not playing a strategy game where you can capture buildings with soldiers and lure away population with monarchs.

Listen, if we were fighting, we could have moved all supplies, communications, electricity, and everything else to the South-South. And in a couple of weeks, all the cities could have been taken, still tucked away, even with a smaller force than we had at that moment in the 404th territory. But for some reason, some expert isn't saying a word about this.
No one understood the flight from Kherson at all, neither the senior officers nor ordinary citizens. Why would they just give up such a bridgehead? During WWII, Stalingrad was defended to the last house for a reason.

[Russian_Ninja]

They could have. But they didn't, and they paid the price. Because now such steps won't be considered liberation in the eyes of ordinary Ukrainian citizens.

But were the residents of Kherson particularly joyful in welcoming the Russian troops? Perhaps the military was right in not turning Kherson into a Stalingrad, as the Russian forces in the city were clearly insufficient to put up a fight, and turning the city into a cauldron would have been foolish, to say the least.

[topol717]

Quote: Russian_Ninja

and turning the city into a cauldron was at least stupid

If you think like that, then fighting is stupid.

[YES UZH]

[quote=Russian_Ninja]They could have. But they didn't, and they paid for it. Because now such steps won't be considered liberation in the eyes of ordinary Ukrainian citizens.

But were the residents of Kherson particularly joyful in welcoming the Russian troops? Perhaps the military was right in not turning Kherson into a Stalingrad, as the Russian forces in the city were clearly insufficient to put up a fight, and turning the city into a cauldron would have been foolish, to say the least.

Even then, all columns and movements were monitored and guided by satellites. Ambushes were set up, roads were mined, and supplies were cut off. And our aircraft could not operate over these territories. Then weapons began to flow in, including precision-guided ones, losses began to mount, and Ukraine introduced mobilization. The cost grew, and such actions became less and less meaningful.

[urik62]

You don't remember the events very well. It all happened differently. The forces deployed weren't enough to hold the territory, because the 'ohlyas' dug in their heels and started to repel them. We suffered losses of 500 men. Goodwill gestures and regrouping were just a cover for retreat when the SVO failed. However, Putin continued to insist that everything was going according to plan and that we hadn't started it.

[topol717]

Quote: urik62

because the idiots got stubborn and started to fight,

No one was resisting. Sure, Kharkov and Kyiv were trying to hold their ground, but our military leaders were already determined to strike a deal. No one was stopping them from cutting off power to Kharkov and Kyiv, and pressuring them, cutting off their weapons supply, taking out their air defenses, and be done with it. But no, they decided everyone had won, like in Georgia, and they needed to urgently strike a deal.

[Andrey Nikolaev_4]

We couldn't take anything on March 3 or 8, and the negotiations and "goodwill gestures" began because the operation near Gostomel with the rapid capture of Kyiv failed, and it suddenly became clear that we didn't have the strength to hold the positions we had occupied; near Kiev, we became a target for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. So they found a pretext to retreat.

[Andrei Nikolaevich]

Andrey, well, I also didn’t understand at first when 180.000 soldiers from military camps near Belarus were sent... Ukrainians "To fight." People at training camps are already tired. At least they were given a chance to rest. I won't even mention the rest of the bleating from our helmsmen (about withdrawing troops from Kyiv).

[Prometey]

Quote: Andrey Nikolaev_4

I laughed at him then, but now I'm wondering: why did some American understand everything?

I'm not a military man, but after a week of the Second World War I realized that the war was a failure.

[alexoff]

Well, with such a leadership, we will certainly fight endlessly for a long time, or rather, they will fight with us, and they will direct special operations from their palaces, arranging truces on Trinity and Easter, appointing all sorts of Shoigu and Lapin to lead

[topol717]

Quote from alexoff

They will fight with us, and they will lead special operations from their palaces, arranging truces on Trinity and Easter,

Well, it depends on who we're fighting against. Although I'd say, what are we fighting for? If we answer this question CORRECTLY, then a lot becomes clear. Today, the US imposed a customs duty on all countries, because... And we're fighting not just for Donbas and the new territories, or even for the rest of 404.

[alexoff]

We're fighting now because if we don't fight in the Dnipropetrovsk region, we'll fight in Kursk, Bryansk, Rostov, Tambov, Tula, and so on. Because to our west are enemy countries that openly state their goals, and no one in their countries is holding them back. Residents of the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region can tell us a lot about what we're fighting against. And the fact that bad people are entrenched in our rear, putting obstacles in our way while occupying leadership positions—that's our failure.

[Vatnik_]

Two generations is about fifty years.
What kind of war is this? It's about the same as the one between the Jews and the Arabs.

[Roman 11]

Russia needs to prepare for a long war – several years or even a couple of decades.
It's kind of questionable... and who are we supposed to fight? Over the past 4,3 years, the Ukrainians have been practically bled dry, their current human mobilization resources have been practically exhausted. If they lower the recruitment age threshold, even to 18, that's several conscriptions a year for a war and a half. What then? A focus on robotization of the front? But it will work for a year or two, then adaptation will set in—and then what... Or rather, who? The Czechs and Finns? The Romanians and Poles? They don't seem to be fighting very valiantly for the Ukrainians.

[gsev]

Quote: Novel 11

And who are we going to fight? Over the past 4,3 years, the Ukrainians have been practically bled dry, their current human mobilization resources have been practically exhausted.

Ukraine hasn't lowered the conscription age to 18. Each year, approximately 150,000 Ukrainian young men are drafted, meaning Ukraine could easily increase its army by 600,000-800,000 men. Additionally, approximately 150,000 men are aged up for military service each year. In any case, Zelenskyy has a mobilization reserve for eighteen months to two years. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine, everyone from the Finns to the Japanese will immediately begin finishing it off. And if Ukraine is defeated, the war with Europe will simply shift to Asia and Africa, as happened during the Soviet era during the Cold War.

[Roman 11]

Quote: gsev

Ukraine can easily increase its army by 600,000-800,000 people.

Where are they from? They're adults, but their mental state is still fragile. Those with a more or less stable mental state for war, modern war, are around 25-29 years old. I'm not talking about everyone, but in general, they're the ones who will make more mistakes and therefore survive less.

The burden on the rear is growing, people are also needed for the rear, women will not be able to cope with either the front or the rear for long

They have big problems with desertion, very big ones.

We must rely on facts - adaptation to their innovations in the drone sector is underway, by the beginning of the 27th we will have our own satellite internet, possibly more advanced tactical air defense... with the Ukrainians, it will be two years like now, another 1,5 years with 18-year-olds' mobile phones... these are the longest scenarios.

If we were engaged in war (I mean underground, normal drone fighters), massive missile and artillery strikes on the front lines, and not on the enemy's rear, etc.), the war would have ended, well, probably 1,5 - 2 years ago, I want to say that if the state were to engage in war, it should be like in the Great Patriotic War

[topol717]

Quote: gsev

Each year, there are approximately 150,000 Ukrainian young men conscripted,

Actually, it's 220,000, and it will stay that way for another 10 years. But then, what awaits them isn't even a pit, but an abyss. For the last three years, the birth rate has been around 100,000 boys, and it continues to fall. But these are all official figures, for those who haven't managed to flee abroad. So, we can safely divide the figures by 2. It turns out that there are already around 100,000 young men per year, and that's not enough even to make up for the irreversible losses.

[gsev]

Quote from: topol717

Actually, 220 thousand and it will be like this for another 10 years.

The conscription age in Ukraine is 22. In 2004, approximately 210,000 boys were born. In 2009, 260,000. With some effort, the Ukrainian Armed Forces could still recruit 150,000 men from each age group. Furthermore, a third of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are probably foreigners, who are used in areas where losses are greatest.

[Gavrilo Princip]

30.06.2023
Nebenzya: Ukraine has no weapons left, the country's mobilization reserve is running out
Kyiv has no more weapons of its own, and its mobilization reserves are also running low. Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, stated this at a meeting of the UN Security Council.

Agitators need to update their manual at least once a year.

[Prometey]

Quote: Novel 11

Over the past 4,3 years, the Ukrainians have been practically bled dry, their current human mobilization resources have been practically exhausted

Like ours.

[Roman 11]

Quote: Prometey

Like ours.

Oh, come on, we have a different distribution... If you take a mathematical approach to roughly equal losses, they have a distribution of 20+ million, we have a distribution of 140+ million. As you can see, the ratio is 1:7... We don't know the official figures, it's probably even higher. Besides, we haven't started fighting yet. War must be approached in all its forms, with fighter drones, underground warfare, massive missile-aircraft-drone strikes on the enemy's front lines and near rear, etc.

[Monster_Fat]

Did he say this from the trenches or from a warm office?

[Sergey Novikov_3]

Yes, in the event of a potential war, the only option is to militarize the civilian economy and infrastructure. But Russia likely won't be able to sustain this for long. Therefore, the right thing to do would be to intensify military action now, using all available warfare options, including the most radical ones. We are now reaching a turning point when we still have a chance to win the war, and certainly against Europe.

[samarin1969]

So who else will get to speak at this "strange" SPIEF? Only the apologists for the SVO framework. The "elite" has adapted perfectly to reality, even in the "green zone" of capital. And the people in the regions, who "don't have TV series about them," are paying the price for this "pragmatism."
After all, they are not in the format of channels..."

[Goffman]

Russia will be at war for another couple of decades.

It seems that the people's loyalty to the government (or at least apathetic indifference) rests primarily with the middle-aged and older generations. If the Ukrainian issue isn't resolved within this time—with the generational shift, when today's 17- to 25-year-olds begin to actively participate in the country's processes—the continuation of the conflict will simply cause a rift between the ruling elite and the majority of the population who reject it. At this point, the country's vulnerability to external influence will increase manifold, especially if "power structures" established in the West enjoy the respect of Russia's "new population."

[frolish]

I have been seeing this turn of events for a long time now.

[Arnok]

It is held mainly by the middle-aged and older generations.

Generally speaking, yes, I agree. Even my supposedly "middle-aged" generation is pretty fed up with this circus, performed by a grandfather so out of touch with reality.
And for young guys it's just...
Of course, there are "young men with burning eyes," but they quickly end/will end, after all, it's not only Ukrainians who are being ground down there.

[Keperveem72]

He simply voiced the desires of the oligarchy connected to the military-industrial complex, and beyond. Essentially, this is a war for a place at the global bourgeois table. The result of this war will be the disappearance of the middle class in Russia. What will remain will be the rich and well-off 10 percent, and the rest the poor and destitute. Just look at the cost of food and medicine, and you'll understand. The war is being waged to preserve the existing "elite" in power. Everything else is just blah-blah.

[Fangaro]

A common question...
To renovate the apartment or not to renovate it?
Should I buy a new gas stove instead of an old one, or is it pointless?
Should I play chess with my children or go to the shooting range?
When the comment about "it's time to hit all the enemies in all the enemy cities" comes back, maybe we can just throw out the dishes right away instead of letting them clean up after themselves?

[alexoff]

An apartment is simple enough, but I have a house west of Moscow that needs some façade work and interior renovations, and a dacha a hundred kilometers further west. Drones fly over both, there's an air defense system about a kilometer away, and there's no guarantee that another summer of 1941 won't happen in a couple of years and there won't be much left of the house...

[Ulysses]

"On the contrary, in his opinion, it's precisely now that we need to restructure the state system so that it simultaneously addresses development and defense issues." I've been hearing the same thing for five years. I'm tired of it.

[Khamzat-41]

The enemy is rapidly increasing production of long-range attack drones, necessitating a network of underground bases.

[ser580]

The best air defense is tanks on enemy airfields. We must stop this "increasing production" opportunity.

[Right hand of the eye]

An SVR colonel "reassured": Russia will continue to fight for another couple of decades.

The Colonel is mistaken, of course...))) Given current trends, when the Russian Federation's infrastructure—economic, military, life-support, etc.—is subject to constant attacks, effective to a greater or lesser degree, and these attacks will only escalate (considering the West's exponentially increasing investments in military enterprises and resources that will support the growing power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), Russia will not last even a couple of years... Therefore, such a long war will definitely not happen. Russia will be forced, in the very near future (a year or two maximum), to either switch to strikes on targets in the territories of Western (I think, first the Baltic) countries, with a transition to the level of maximum, pre-nuclear escalation (which is the only way to cool the ardor of Western aggressors in their desire to inflict a strategic defeat on it), when the further development of the confrontation puts Europe on the brink of existence, which will force the elites ruling it to stop their hitherto unpunished aggression at the hands of the Ukrainians against the Russian Federation, or Russia will have to capitulate in one way or another, agree to extremely unfavorable conditions for us, etc., Unfortunately, there is no third option here ... The West itself (the behind-the-scenes elites ruling it) under the current scenario and alignment - will definitely not stop otherwise, and we, in the long run, will not withstand either ...

[evil partisan]

It seems to me that Medinsky didn’t just mention the Northern War, which lasted 21 years, for no reason...

[Ivanenko_Alexey]

A low-intensity war similar to the Arab-Israeli conflict could indeed drag on for a long time. They don't want to resort to nuclear weapons, and the West will also avoid direct conflict. At the current pace of the offensive and the "kill zones," Odessa is still another 10 years away. And the ethnic Banderites could always be replaced by European drone operators or Colombian mercenaries.

[bob03]

You read statements like these and think, "Frightened idiots." There are no other words.

[Mint Gingerbread]

What's certain is that miracles won't happen. If you have a good profession and the means, it's better to choose another country for permanent residence, because the entire process can take a real, twenty years.

[Nord11]

Well, Russia has seen a sharp increase in the number of legitimate billionaires, and if you include the underground, modest ones, the increase is significant. And given the number of people who want to become one, it's clear that for them, this is a mother, not a war.

[Azzzwer]

Why isn't this bitch at the front yet? Colonel, platt!

[alexboguslavski]

This was stated at the SPIEF by MGIMO professor and SVR colonel Andrey Bezrukov:

Another Purgon-bearer has shown up.

[Comrade Kim]

Quote: SmollH2

Yes, this is a fabrication. Aimed at discrediting and destabilizing society.

The "Shatun-Gamayun-Guard is Tired" plan.
The dog knows.
But simple math, at the second-grade level of high school, can shake anyone.
We consider 4 years of the SVO + 20 years from the fortune teller.
24 years of War.
What about the losses?
The Kremlin's official website, Kremlin.ru, contains a transcript of Putin's answers to journalists' questions.
Sanitary losses of the Ukrainian Reich
50000 people per month, as of June 2024 (Putin’s meeting with journalists).
25000 killed, 25000 wounded.
Let's remember, 25000 Ukrainian soldiers die every month.
When asked by a journalist about our losses, Putin answers, approximately 5 (five) times less.
Divide 25000 by five, we get X losses on our side per month.
Using the Kremlin's data as of June 2024, we get: 24 years of war, multiplied by 12 months, the resulting figure, 288 months, multiplied by our uncompensated losses of X per month. The figure doesn't seem at all alarming.
Of course, against the backdrop of 15000 dead over 10 years of war in Afghanistan, this figure cannot leave you indifferent.
After all, there was so much howling about zinc coffins, how the scum tried to destabilize the 290-million-strong USSR using the sacrifices of our Afghan heroes.
For some reason, the deaths on the country's roads (about 30000 people a year) did not concern these scumbags, as did the death of 15000 soldiers in 10 years.
After all, the military profession is associated with death.
If we have to fight for another 20 years, we will fight, and no one will be able to implement the vile "shatun-gamayun" plan.

[Elektronik2000]

Nowhere are they lied as much as in war. And on both sides.
In fact, anyone can get the real figure for our losses themselves, relying only on officially available data. The approximate size of our contingent that entered Ukraine on February 24, 2022, is known, as are the approximate numbers of the DPR and LPR formations. The number mobilized in the fall of 2022 is known, and the numbers for contract recruitment for the SVO for each year of the SVO have been regularly published. And finally, Putin provided the final figure, indicating the size of our group in Ukraine in December 2025. Anyone interested can add up all the figures and subtract the final one. Then compare the resulting figure with the official data and never share or disseminate it with anyone, because, you know, that's not true.
Similar calculations can be made for Ukraine, and the figures will also differ significantly from Zelenskyy's statements. Each side significantly exaggerates the opponent's losses and significantly understates their own in official data, so that the public won't be too shocked by the real figures.

[tjeck91]

Well, it's hard to argue with his first thesis... At this rate, we'll be fighting for decades—that's a statistical fact. The second part is, of course, nonsense. Previously, we should have fought corruption and built a healthy political system instead of this crooked variation of the personality cult, but today this whole struggle resembles the convulsions of a sick person.

[Takeshi Kitano]

So who are we fighting for, and which regions, if the top brass are full of oligarchs, including Ukrainian ones? The war will end tomorrow, and Ukrainians will spend a thousand years blaming us and passing on to their new generations what enemies we are and how we seized their lands. Then, any conversation they have with Russia will always begin with the seized lands. Donbas will be like a friend among strangers, a stranger among friends, and like a time bomb, it could even destroy all of Russia. Civilizationally, Moscow is closer to the indigenous Turkic peoples, and everything there is foreign.

[Konnick]

several years or even a couple of decades

A classic example of how foreign intelligence operates today... I can imagine the forecasts this service presented in early 2022...

[Alex-2637]

Well, if we don’t take off our white gloves, then that’s how it will be (if we aren’t destroyed first).

[Vyacheslav Boldyrev]

We'll demote the colonel and send him to the front lines as a stormtrooper, and let him fight there as long as he lives!
How many people have bred who want to take control of other people's lives!
We don't want to use nuclear weapons. We feel sorry for all foreigners, but we don't feel sorry for our own - let them fight for decades: the women will give birth to more!
But they don't want to give birth...!

[Idle_piston]

The current Russian state is incapable of winning wars or developing the economy or science. It has only one goal: profit for its founders.

[Alexander Elizarov]

An SVR colonel "reassured": Russia will continue to fight for another couple of decades.

It would be better if this colonel kept quiet.

[Vovan]

What's great about these articles is that you can immediately tell in the comments who's on the payroll.
PS For those with alternative mental gifts - no one will ask anyone, because the objective reality is: if you don’t want to feed your own army, you’ll feed someone else’s.

[Elektronik2000]

Only if you "milk a cow and never feed it" can what happened in 1917 happen. This is precisely why protracted wars, lacking clear goals understood by the people and unity between the people and the government (including in enduring hardships), quickly turn into "stabbing the ground and getting tired of fighting," as the Russian Revolution demonstrated so well.

[AdAstra]

How old is this "SVR colonel"? I think he's starting to show signs of senility, or did he just gorge himself on free caviar on the forum and it's starting to get to him?

[roosei]

Well, well! You really made me happy, really happy.

[faterdom]

Those who rushed to slander Bezrukov don’t even know what kind of person he is.
For them, "professor" is Moriarty, or Yanukovych.
Or those whose INIAN library burned down.
Look for an interview with this man (who was betrayed in his homeland by "intelligence managers"), with his wife, and catch him at least once, where and in what way is he wrong?
Or do you think he's just looking for hype? Why would he? He doesn't even need to teach; he has enough to live on. And he's definitely not planning on running away to America.
And, by the way, for the critics: how long did the war in the Caucasus last in the 19th century? And how long in the late 20th and early 21st centuries? In Afghanistan, it lasted almost 10 years for us, and let's be honest, we simply ended it without any logic or achievements.
But Bezrukov is right - we shouldn't just throw away our hats, or high-crowned caps, but prepare to fight seriously and for a long time, and this is not a task for the Armed Forces alone, but above all for the country's leadership, the economy, and industry.

[AdAstra]

Without regard for previous deeds and achievements. Will Bezrukov himself implement his proposals, along with his children, grandchildren, nephews, and nieces, or, as is usually the case with such talkers, will he leave this "honor" to others who aren't "professors" or their relatives, and haven't achieved such heights? And with what money? Or has he forgotten that his pension and professor's salary don't grow on trees in the land of the chu, and besides, the people who are supposed to do all this physically, not through cloning, but as adults, are born here? And I'm not even talking about "trenches." Will his half-bloods end up in a hot shop at a factory, or as excavator operators, and so on? No matter how much nonsense we talk, our economy is in very, very bad shape.

[faterdom]

Don't confuse proposals with predictions.
He is not vested with the power to make "proposals"; there are plenty of them without him, look at the SPIEF, they are looking for "drivers" from any iron, and they speak at "panels", and they are amazed at the robots.
Unfortunately, the illegal spy is right: while we're looking for "drivers on the panels" and trying to force turbulence into volatility using targeting, they'll try to devour us, and then it's either war or defeat.
He, Bezrukov, knows them well from the inside, he sees us well, and also from the inside.
Therefore, it is not difficult for him, a smart person, to add two and two.
And, by the way, I already advised: study the person you are judging.
Bezrukov and his wife brought their children with them to their homeland, who were born Americans and didn’t even know they were Russian until Judas betrayed their parents.

[Elektronik2000]

A 20-year war places a colossal strain on the country, including on the population's psyche. Winning it is extremely difficult, but losing it will become increasingly easier with each passing year, as the current structure of society and power will increasingly widen the gap between the standard of living of the super-rich elite and the rest of the population. The current power structure in Russia is, in fact, a rather shaky superstructure of fused clans of security officials and criminals who came to power in the late 1990s. While they skillfully manipulate patriotic slogans, they are still maintaining relative stability in society, but this task will become increasingly difficult with each passing year, and the gap between the population and the elites will become ever more striking. It is precisely the structure and origins of the current government and elites that will create the greatest obstacles to "fighting seriously and for the long term." For over four years, they haven't even been able to call a spade a spade, pretending they're fighting not the armed forces of a neighboring state, but "Kyiv militants," "terrorist gangs," and the like. This is both the main problem and the main vulnerability: as soon as truly correct and decisive measures are taken to win this conflict, these same measures will jeopardize the power and property of the current elites. Believe me, they will do everything possible to prevent this from happening.

[faterdom]

There was also a Hundred Years' War in history.
And not one.
The same Punic Wars of Rome also lasted a very long time, and in principle they can be considered one war.
Only when, for some reason, it has matured and has already begun, then the opinion of each of its participants is no longer important - it will proceed on its own, and will not let anyone go so easily.
And there is no need to deceive yourself that war is not war, that you can fight without suffering losses, and not only on the front lines.

[Radical]

Quote from AdAstra

Why then hasn't this colonel been taken away in handcuffs in a Black Maria yet?

Because he knows things you don't know and has seen things you'll never see! Filter your words, smart guy!

[AdAstra]

I don't claim to be omniscient; my job is quite sufficient for me, and I filter my words, Smart Guy. And here, if you believe one book, we still have equality before the law. But for some reason, when they say something similar, they're immediately slandered and given a "fuck you" sentence, while others continue to "form" them.

[Radical]

Quote from Aken

Does Russia really need Bezrukov and his bosses? Maybe we can manage on our own, without them?

I suspect that Russia definitely doesn't need people like you.

[Radical]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

If these are military pensioners, then they should be forcibly enrolled at the front.

Mademoiselle, or Madame, it doesn't matter - did you think carefully before posting this opus?

[Radical]

Quote from AdAstra

I don't claim to be omniscient; my job is quite sufficient for me, and I filter my words, Smart Guy. And here, if you believe one book, we still have equality before the law. But for some reason, when they say something similar, they're immediately slandered and given a "fuck you" sentence, while others continue to "form" them.

Well, then, if your current job is enough for you, don't bother getting into issues you seem to have only a superficial understanding of. By the way, I don't understand why you brought your work into this.

[ZnachWest]

That's right, with such a policy, war. If traitors and immigration policies don't destroy the country in the coming years.

[Uma palata]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

In fact, the Russian army is now in first place in combat readiness, which is very worrying in the West.

There's absolutely no doubt about our army's combat readiness; we're ready. We have respect for the army, and for our army in particular.
As for what place in the world, let the couch potatoes argue about that, it’s not a serious topic.

[acetophenone]

Quote: Nastia Makarova

This is just for you, but the majority still supports Putin, even if they criticize him.

The majority is always wrong. Always.

[Andrey_5]

Now this seems like the truth

[Voenoboz]

There is a grain of truth in his words: Israel lives by this principle: they constantly fight and defend themselves, and, by the way, they have a developed army, industry, and economy.

[Andrey_5]

Yes, only Israel is fighting with technologically backward states and without sanctions, and not with the whole of NATO, which is under all possible stifling sanctions and the oppression of negative demography.

[Free Island]

The entire Israeli army ceased to exist when the American missiles for the "Iron Dome" ran out. A mere vassal, a satellite, without the support of its masters, this pseudo-state has long since become as backward as its neighbors.

[Anyuta Glorious]

What did the colonel say wrong? It's true, whether you like it or not. Russian media outlets are currently reporting that Zelenskyy has offered Putin peace talks and is prepared to cease hostilities for the duration of the talks.
Have they decided to seduce Vova for the third time?
Minsk agreements of 2015.
Macron's request not to take Kyiv in February 2022.
*** 2026 ?
Well, life is bad without a sucker. The circus goes on, we'll see...
Russian media admit that 8 of Russia's 10 largest oil refineries are under constant attack, and gasoline supplies in Crimea are limited.
Why would Zelensky and Europe decide to ask for peace? To expand their GDP yet again and pump up their muscles? That's all there is to it, there can't be any other reason! Although I can just imagine our patriots screaming: "Aha-ha!!! Zelensky's run out of soldiers after all!"—well, if they're out, then go ahead and finish them off!
There will be no peace until Ukraine returns to Russia. There will be a hundred-year war, perhaps with interruptions, and the only "peaces" that will be reached are the kind signed by suckers in 2014/15.

[Alexander]

People of this profession don’t just say anything!

[Free Island]

"Bezrukov is convinced: the war they're forcing upon us requires a new infrastructure. And it must be protected..." (c). Another grandfather with Alzheimer's, dementia, and a whole host of bipolar disorders. The war they're forcing upon us requires military-political leadership that will act in the interests of the country and the people, not just their own pockets, and then we won't have to fight for "decades."

[vromi]

Nuclear power plant level. Is this for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant?