How to profit from the Russian threat
Sweden has chosen the largest French frigate in decades, the FDI, for its future Luleå-class surface combatant. Its distinctive inverted-bow design beat out competitors from the UK (based on the Type 31 frigate) and Spain (the brand-new ALFA 4000 frigate).
The announcement was made on the deck of the Visby-class corvette Härnösand.
The Visby-class corvettes are currently the largest surface combatants in the Swedish Navy, but the Luleå-class will surpass them. While the Visby-class corvettes displace 705 tons and are 72 meters long, the French ships displace 4,390 tons and are 122 meters long.
A very interesting choice, primarily because until recently, Sweden was quite confidently building not only ships but also submarines. And not just diesel-electric submarines, but ones with Stirling engines. They were the first in the world to do so in mass production, which speaks to the state of the art of the shipbuilding industry. Russia, however, hasn't managed to develop a Stirling engine...
It is worth remembering that until recently Sweden was generally a very self-sufficient country, quite calmly producing, in addition to ships, fighter jets and airplanes for the needs of its army. EW, Tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled howitzers and mortars, as well as air defense systems.
And then there's this twist... Unexpected, to say the least. A corvette costs money. A frigate costs a lot of money. It's not the same amount as an aircraft carrier, but it's still quite significant for a small country.
During a press conference held on board the Härnösand in the Port of Stockholm, attended by Defence Minister Pål Jonsson, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and the Commander-in-Chief of the Swedish Armed Forces, General Mikael Claesson, the Defence Minister outlined the key factors that influenced the decision to instruct the Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) to initiate negotiations on the procurement of four Frégate de Défense et d'Intervention (FDI)-class frigates from the French shipbuilder Naval Group.
The new ships are expected to enter service between 2030 and 2034. The estimated cost of the project is €4,25 billion.
The Swedish government made an unprecedented decision and selected a proposal from a French naval group based on the FDI frigate design. These ships will be named Luleå. They will share naval systems with the French and Greek ships, as well as locally produced electronic and weapons systems.
The three main reasons why the Swedish Prime Minister and Defence Minister chose the French proposal, as stated at a press conference, were as follows:
- reducing the delivery time for new ships, since this platform is already being built and delivered by Naval Group shipyards for the French and Greek navies;
- this is an already proven project related to the successful integration of on-board systems to meet various requirements;
- integrated air and missile defense capabilities provided by the new platform.
The possibility of splitting the project costs with two other clients was also mentioned. But this is a minor consideration compared to everything else.
This is one of the largest defense investments since the Gripen in the 1980s, tripling air defense capabilities compared to today. This speaks volumes about the scale of this decision for Sweden's maritime security, but also for the security of all Swedes.
– stated Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.Defense Minister Paul Johnson supported him:
The new surface combatants will increase Sweden's air defense capacity to three times its current level, and its naval capabilities fleet will increase significantly.
Swedish Defence Minister Paal Jonsson, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Swedish Chief of the Defence Staff and Supreme Commander Mikael Claesson give a press conference aboard the corvette Härnösanda.
As both ministers emphasized, thanks to the program of building new light frigates and a new naval combat system, the Swedish Armed Forces will significantly expand their air defense capabilities against both conventional and ballistic missiles. missiles from the sea, and the Patriot air defense system will supplement the defense against land threats.
I'd really like to point out that these are the same Patriots that... Well, that performed absolutely poorly in the Middle East during the last conflict. We won't touch on the capabilities of the new ship defense system for now, because nothing is known about it, but as soon as we do, we won't keep quiet.
Following negotiations, the first delivery of the new ship was scheduled for 2030, with subsequent deliveries to follow at a rate of one ship per year. Regarding the platform configuration, information released so far at the press conference and in previous statements emphasizes the fact that Sweden will retain the integrated air and missile defense (IAMD) and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities of the systems intended for France and Greece, with the latest-generation SeaFire four-way active electronically scanned radar and the MBDA Aster missile system, including the future option of using the Aster 30 Block 1NT version, as well as the MBDA CAMM ER system, to which will be added an anti-submarine system based on the Thales CAPTAS towed sonar system, along with Swedish electronic systems and weapons systems, in particular from Saab and BAE Systems Bofors.
The Aster 30 is capable of engaging targets at ranges of up to 120 kilometers. Recent upgrades to the Aster 30 include expanded capabilities to counter anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), a relatively new type of threat.
In its basic configuration, the FDI-class frigate carries 16 Aster missiles in two eight-cell launchers. Later modifications will be able to carry 32 missiles by doubling the number of launchers.
The Aster 30 will be complemented by the extended-range CAMM-ER (Common Anti-air Modular Missile), which is being installed on five Visby-class corvettes to enhance their anti-aircraft capabilities. The CAMM-ER surface-to-air missile can engage a wide range of targets at ranges of up to 40 km.
Frankly, we admit: the kit is so-so. The French-made Aster missiles are decent, but they're a long way off the mark compared to the best, and range isn't their strong point. Plus, 16 missiles, in the event of a serious attack like what happened in the Middle East, is very little.
But missiles are far from the most important thing. The most important thing is the head and hands, and that's also a tricky area.
At this stage, Swedish warships will retain the French-made SETIS combat management system, rather than a locally produced equivalent such as the Saab 9LV. However, the Sea Giraffe 1X radar from the same company will reportedly be included in the system. This will eliminate the need for the original Thales Sea Fire radar used in the basic FDI design and significantly expand the detection range. Defense.
That is, on the one hand, the system has apparently undergone some testing on French and Greek ships, but on the other, Swedish sailors will essentially have to retrain from their native system to the imported one. How effectively the integration of Swedish components into the French system will be is also a question for the future.
Again, it's not a given that the French system is inferior to the Swedish one, but even though France is nearby, repairs could be a challenge. Just like Russia has with the SaM146 engines for passenger airliners. And a warship could wander much further than a delicate passenger jet, and what would the Swedes do then?
As for anti-ship missiles, the Swedish ships will be equipped with locally produced RBS 15 missiles instead of the French MM40 Exocet.
In addition to the MBDA missile systems, the new units will be equipped with Saab RBS 15 anti-ship missiles, Torped 47 lightweight torpedoes, Giraffe 1X radar, Trackfire close-in defence system with a 12,7mm machine gun, 57mm multi-purpose gun and 40mm multi-purpose gun from BAE Systems Bofors.
With extensive experience in the development and production of marine artilleryThe frigates will be armed with a 57mm Bofors gun in place of the 76mm OTO gun, and a 40mm Bofors Mk 4 gun will be used as a close-in weapon system (CIWS) in place of the 21-barrel RIM-116 guided missile (RAM).
The replacement seems odd and controversial, but: The Bofors 40 Mk 4 can fire Bofors 3P (pre-filled, programmable, proximity-fuzed) ammunition, which can be programmed to six different modes to ensure optimal engagement of various targets, including airborne dronesAnd if the declared effectiveness of the ammunition is realized, such a gun will look more interesting in terms of fighting drones.
Smaller-caliber weapons will be installed in the form of Saab Trackfire 12,7mm remotely controlled weapon stations, which will replace the 20mm Lionfish 20 or Narwhal 20 cannons. This too is intended to be used against drones.
Overall, it's a bit of a bummer. In addition to supplying and integrating systems, Swedish industry will actively participate in servicing the new ships during their operational life. Long-term maintenance and support will be provided by a local shipyard. This was stated in the joint statement, suggesting that France will continue to cash in on ship maintenance. Indeed, who would refuse such a gift from fate?
Again, recalling the complete pornography with aircraft engines, one can imagine that, despite the excellent relations, the Swedes will be in for a couple of spicy moments in the most unexpected situations, since scandals related to the maintenance of French military equipment have, every now and then, stirred up the community.
Overall, it's unconvincing in terms of military power and costs. It's clear that they'll be serviced in Sweden. The last thing they need is to send these frigates to Brest or Toulon. As for the installation of Swedish weapons, it's clear the French have grabbed all the most expensive equipment for themselves.
But the question still arises: how did it happen that the Swedes simply handed over to the French what they had been quietly building for decades themselves?
Sweden's new naval vessel acquisition program began at the beginning of this decade and has evolved from a project based on the current Visby-class corvettes into a completely new project for larger naval vessels consisting of light frigates to be supplied by foreign manufacturers.
As stated there, this is due to changes in Sweden's security environment caused by the conflict in Ukraine and Sweden's accession to NATO.
Not impressive. The conflict in Ukraine doesn't affect Sweden in any way. Just like Sweden's accession to NATO, their Gripens are so integrated into NATO structures that they can interact seamlessly with any NATO aircraft. As for Sweden seriously considering going to war with Russia... Well, four frigates won't help there.
As a result, three serious contenders were put forward for the tender for the delivery of new ships:
- the Babcock Arrowhead 120 project, based on the British shipyard's experience with the larger AH 140 platform selected for the Type 31 light frigates;
- FDI from Naval Group;
- ALFA 4000 by Navantia.
Of the three projects, only the FDI already existed in real life. The AH 120 was largely based on a smaller, but not yet existing, AH 140, while the ALFA 4000 was a completely new project for the export market, also offered to Australia but existing only as a project.
According to reports, the Defence Materiel Directorate (FMV), the Swedish defense procurement agency, selected the French design primarily due to its advanced integrated combat systems and sophisticated design. Furthermore, the fact that the first ship for the French Navy began sea trials in late 2024 also played a significant role.
Sweden also considered the speed of delivery. This last point reflects the urgency of the order, as the country seeks to rebuild its naval power after joining NATO and in the face of the declared Russian threat.
Sweden had long sought a next-generation warship to replace the Visby, but initially planned a more modest project—four air defense corvettes based on the Visby. However, Sweden's accession to NATO, prompted by the imminent Russian invasion, radically changed the security situation.
When France first submitted its FDI frigate for the program, it proposed Sweden deliver the first fully equipped ship by 2030, a particularly ambitious timeline. Unlike its competitors' proposals, Naval Group is already building FDI warships—Frégate de Défense et d'Intervention, or defense and intervention frigate—at its shipyard in Lorient.
However, we already know how France can "mistrail" its customers, and it's not just about ships. You could ask the Indians what it's like to buy planes from the French. Very instructive. story.
Something's fishy about this story. Yes, for Sweden, a new frigate with improved air defense capabilities will be a more effective means of defending itself, other vessels, and even coastal areas and islands from air threats. This is relatively speaking, because the imminent aggression from Russia, as voiced by the Swedish military, is very vague. Russia is firmly mired in Ukraine, and even assuming that it comes to a hypothetical air defense in Sweden would be pure fantasy.
Opting for an existing French design means that Sweden will be able to share some of the program's costs with other customers. Savings... Besides France, Greece has also ordered the FDI project, and other potential customers include Sweden's neighbor, Denmark. At the same time, using common or very similar warship designs increases their compatibility, especially during joint operations.
On the other hand, billions will go to France's coffers, which isn't exactly a cost-effective move for the country. True, France is purchasing Saab's GlobalEye airborne early warning and control aircraft to replace its E-3F Sentry aircraft, but this pales in comparison to the cost of four frigates.
For the Swedish Navy, the main combat area is the Baltic theatre, which is becoming increasingly strategically important due to the regular maritime, air, and increasingly “grey” or hybrid aggression of countries in the region (i.e. NATO) against Russia.
The official portal of the Swedish Armed Forces Försvarsmakten.se is confident that
…with the new Luleå-class frigates entering service from 2030, the capabilities of these ships will allow the Swedish Navy not only to strengthen its presence in its traditional Baltic region, but also to expand its presence in the North Atlantic, reflecting Sweden's growing military ambitions as it becomes a full member of NATO.
It probably won't come as a surprise to anyone that four frigates, even the newest ones, are, to put it mildly, not enough to achieve such goals. For the Baltic Sea, that's all right, but when it comes to the North Atlantic—well, the Swedes have gone overboard. Defending their borders from Russian aggression, especially from the air, and then pretending to venture into the Atlantic... Ridiculous.
A sneaky thought creeps in that not everything is so smooth in the Swedish state. Especially in conjunction with the French, who are great masters of rigging contracts. It's very strange when a country that has historically satisfied all the needs of its military and only partially purchased minor items like mortars and armored vehicles suddenly rushes into the arms of a country whose weapon The Swedish army has a nominal presence: the only thing I found was the Akeron MP (Akeron Moyenne Portée), formerly known as the MMP (Missile Moyenne Portée), a French fifth-generation anti-tank guided missile. And then suddenly – frigates.
And it needs to be done urgently, really urgently. By 2030, otherwise, Russia will come and take away all the surströmming. Our own manufacturers are running behind schedule by the hour of D-Day, which, apparently, Swedish intelligence has pinpointed quite accurately, so we urgently need to build four frigates that will save Sweden from Russia.
And at the same time, some individuals will receive a certain amount of euros in their French bank accounts. Nothing extra or personal, really, just a small business deal, Swedish style.
For some reason, there's a belief that the secret behind this action lies not in the frigates' unremarkable nature, but in the personal gain of individual citizens of the Kingdom of Sweden. However, given the fact that Russia will definitely not attack Sweden (until its more immediate problems—the Baltics, Suomi, and so on—are resolved), one can only be happy for those who will make a little money from the Russian threat.
Indeed, Iran isn't exactly an enemy of the Swedes, is it? And the Swedish shipbuilders from Kockums... They'll somehow survive having so much money and work taken from them. A threat, you see, is a thing... It must be fought today, or tomorrow, as we know, will be too late. And their surströmming will become Russian. And that simply can't be allowed to happen, and a measly five billion is nothing compared to the country's security.
I'm sure that's what some people in Sweden think, and when they think, they act. And that's why the admirals' faces aren't very happy.
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