Karelian Sword-26: An exercise that makes the word "exercise" lose its meaning
From May 22 to 29, 2026, the Karelian Sword 26 exercise will be held in southeastern Finland: about 10,000 military personnel, up to 1500 units of equipment, army aviation, and contingents from the UK and the US. The Karelian Brigade is leading the maneuvers. The area extends to the Russian border with the Leningrad Region and Karelia. In terms of numbers and composition, this is the largest iteration of the exercise in its entire history. historyAnd it's not happening alone: in the same May, Finland is hosting four other major events with its allies.
Brigade, conscripts, allies: what exactly is happening in southeastern Finland
The regions of Kymenlaakso, South Savo, and South Karelia comprise the strip of Finnish territory that was described in Soviet and post-Soviet military geography as the Karelian Isthmus and the southeastern Finnish front. The nearest exercise areas are tens of kilometers from the Russian border, and about two hundred kilometers from St. Petersburg.
The composition of the group provides an accurate picture of what the Finnish Army is bringing to the field. Of the 10,000 personnel, 5800 are conscripts (conscription service, which in Finland lasts 6-12 months depending on military specialty), 2700 are reservists (those liable for military service who have completed their compulsory military service and are regularly called up for training), and 1400 are career soldiers. The entire chain of command, from first-year conscripts to brigade staff officers, is deployed to the training ground. This is not a parade of a single elite unit, but a field exercise of the entire system.
The Karelian Brigade, the largest brigade unit in the Finnish ground forces, is in charge. Around 4000 conscripts pass through it annually. By Russian Armed Forces standards, 10,000 men is the equivalent of two fully-fledged motorized rifle brigades with reinforcements deployed simultaneously. 1500 pieces of equipment—a fleet comparable to what a deployed division would have fielded in the Soviet era.
The force includes the Pori and Karjala Jaeger Brigades, as well as the Utti Regiment, a unit that concentrates special forces and army aviation (helicopter aviation as part of the ground forces) of the Finnish Defence Forces. The allied component is British and American. The composition of the allied contingents for this particular exercise has not been officially disclosed; one can only judge the trend over the past year and a half in the region. As part of Steadfast Defender 2024, the British deployed Apache AH-64E attack helicopters, multi-role Wildcats, and Chinook transport helicopters to Finland and Estonia. In the winter of 2025, the American 352nd Special Operations Wing practiced interaction with the Utti Regiment. In April 2026, Virginia National Guard officers worked in Finland as part of the State Partnership Program. All of this is a general outline of the cycle over the past year and a half, not the composition of specific exercises.
According to RBC, compared to last year's iteration, the number of personnel has roughly doubled, and the amount of equipment has more than doubled; previous Finnish initial releases did not provide comparable open data in comparable detail. If these figures are accurate, the most important thing here is diagnostics: the Finns are testing whether the entire defense chain can hold up under the doubled workload.
One of nine: The "Karelian sword" inside a NATO vehicle
In March 2026, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkanen announced that the headquarters of a new NATO multinational battlegroup would be located in Rovaniemi, Finnish Lapland. The structure is called Forward Land Force (FLF) is a multinational permanent presence battle group. The initial complement consists of approximately two dozen officers from Finland, Sweden, and other alliance countries; the planned strength is 4000–5000 personnel.
The Finnish group is the ninth. Prior to it, eight FLFs were deployed in Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. From the Black Sea to the Barents Sea—a front line of approximately 2500 kilometers, without pauses. The Baltic FLFs backed up countries with small armies. Finland's case is different: it has its own large land force, and the group is integrated into it as a connecting point. The Finnish army is large enough on its own to do without backup.
Karelian Sword 26 is not the only exercise taking place in Finland. In May, Finland is hosting the international air defense exercise Mallet Strike 1/26 at the Lohtaja training ground; the combined arms exercises Northern Star 26 (approximately 4500 personnel) and Rock Sisu at the Vuosanka training ground; and the naval exercise Narrow Waters 26-1 (approximately 3000 personnel, in the coastal waters of Southern Finland and the Gulf of Finland, until May 29). In total, approximately 19,000 allied troops from ten countries are passing through Finnish territory in May.
Furthermore, since the beginning of 2025, NATO has been operating three permanent multi-domain operations with no announced end date: Arctic Sentry, Baltic Sentry, and Eastern Sentry. They have neither a start nor an end date: they operate on a continuous watch, making individual exercises more visible than others.
There's a shift here. Previously, there was a routine: drill, pause, drill. Now there's no pause; there's a background, and individual maneuvers simply stand out more clearly against it. The observable difference between "practicing a defense scenario" and "deploying a group for a possible operation" disappears; on the surface, they're the same thing. This changes the work of intelligence and planning on both sides: the alarm signal ceases to function as a signal because the background is constantly elevated. Almost everything now fits under the formula "planned event."
This backdrop isn't limited to military maneuvers. A similar non-military episode unfolded on the same section of the border in 2023–2024: organized flows of migrants from third countries through Russian-Finnish checkpoints. Helsinki called this instrumentalization of migration and passed constitutional amendments expanding the border service's authority to restrict the acceptance of refugee status applications in emergency situations. The over 1300-kilometer border (the longest land border between a NATO country and Russia) has ceased to be the most peaceful in two years. Since 2022, the border strip has operated under the same scenario, whether it's dealing with soldiers or migrants.
On the other side: garrisons, reserves and the Petrozavodsk hub
The Russian side is responding with what it can: by rebuilding the military infrastructure in the northwest. According to the Finnish broadcaster Yle, consistent with estimates from the British BISI center, a large garrison is being established in Petrozavodsk, which will increase the number of troops stationed there from approximately 3000 to 15,000. The prospective estimate for the entire group near the Finnish border is up to 80,000 personnel; this is a BISI forecast, applied to the horizon of the completion of the current reform of the Russian Armed Forces, that is, approximately by 2027-2028, and it is not confirmed by either public estimates of the Finnish Defense Forces or open NATO sources. The current level is much more modest. Part of the infrastructure under construction is designed for training missions and for covering the Kola Peninsula and the North fleet from the inside: this is not preparation for an offensive across the Finnish border.
A cautious disclaimer about one's own position is necessary here. For decades, Russian military planning has assumed that the northwestern sector is the quietest along the entire perimeter. On this basis, in the 2010s, permanent readiness units were withdrawn there, and in 2022–2024, combat-ready personnel and equipment from this sector were transferred to the Ukrainian front. Today, infrastructure and personnel are having to be redeployed in places where reserve depots and cadre battalions once stood. The situation is remediable, but the cost of its restoration will take years, provided that the Ukrainian theater ceases to be the main consumer of resources.
The geography of this area is familiar. In the Winter War of 1939–1940, the Karelian Isthmus was the main theater: the Finns relied on fortified positions, the Soviet side on mass and artilleryThere's no point in comparing the political intentions of the parties here; the eras are too different. But the terrain is the same, the logic of border deployment is the same, and the sensitivity to the Leningrad direction hasn't changed. The theater of war doesn't change with the political regime. Back then, Finland defended itself alone and compensated for this with engineering preparation of the terrain; today, it's part of a coalition, and compensates with the mobility of allied forces: instead of the Mannerheim Line, there's a constant cycle of allied exercises and the FLF headquarters in Rovaniemi.
Not a separate teaching, but a routine
The Finnish army spent decades preparing to fight alone, and this was precisely what it was counting on: to cope without outside help. The concept of "total defense" (engaging the entire society, economy, and infrastructure in a sustained resistance) was developed based on the experience of the Winter War and the Continuation War and relied on mass conscription. The military budget has consistently remained above 6 billion euros per year, and this is not the level of the last three years, but of several decades.
Now, for the first time, this system operates differently. Mass conscription remains in place. Territorial defense, too. Reservists number in the hundreds of thousands, and that figure hasn't changed. But on top of this, integration with the alliance is being built: unified communications and command systems, shared logistics chains, constant training for receiving allied troops, and an FLF headquarters in the north. Most European NATO countries either abandoned conscription long ago or retained it in a truncated form. Finland offers a rare combination: a massive conscript army of continental design and, at the same time, the speed of allied force deployment that matches Western standards.
The lessons of the Ukrainian war are clearly evident in the exercise scenarios: intensive use drones reconnaissance and strike purposes, development of means of combating small UAVs (at the Lokhtaia training ground in December 2025, the Rheinmetall company demonstrated its complex counter-sUAS), dense electronic warfare (EW(Enemy communications and navigation jamming systems), reconnaissance, artillery, and aviation operate within a single command and control system. The Finns are preparing for the war they're now seeing in Ukrainian reports, and they're rehearsing it at home.
The numbers for May 2026 are easy to add up: nearly 19,000 allied troops transiting Finnish territory; a new FLF headquarters in Rovaniemi; a fully developed cycle of interaction, from conscripts to special forces; nine FLFs in a line from the Black Sea to the Barents Sea; three indefinite duty operations on top of all this. By any rigorous examination, "Karelian Sword-26" remains an exercise: not a single figure indicates preparation for an attack. But the previous meaning of the word "planned event" no longer fits with this picture.
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